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Thread: What can you trust?

  1. #1
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    What can you trust?

    As a retired scientist, I naturally want to learn all I can about this Covid.

    I live in Texas and the cases have gone ballistic.

    Though few people that I know have gotten it.

    I feel that the Covid parties where they try to get infected shows a lack of common sense.

    I do my research, but the findings rarely match.

    I wear a face shield and carry a mask in my pocket in case I forget to wear it.

    It disturbs me that hospitals have a financial incentive to classify patients as having Covid.

    I have 2 daughters and 3 grand kids.

    I want the best for them.

    What do you think?

    Vielen dank,

    Andy
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  2. #2
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    Re: What can you trust?

    Meiner Meinung nach ...

    Pascal was a brilliant Mathematician, but a terrible poker player. In a gross logical fallacy, he excluded the middle, presented only two options and created a False Dichotomy. There are a lot more cards in the deck than the King and the Joker. But reducing the decision matrix to two columns and two rows makes his argument appear perfectly valid -- which it is in that context. Not, in my estimation, a very good performance by somebody as smart as Pascal.

    However, I will couch this in terms similar to Pascal's Wager (actually, the third such argument).

    If there is no grave danger from the novel coronavirus, what is the worst that could happen by masking?
    If there is a grave danger from the novel coronavirus, what is the worst that could happen by not masking?

    In truth, there is much in the middle. Reducing this to a false dichotomy is for illustrative purposes only.
    Last edited by QIII; July 23rd, 2020 at 05:33 AM.
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  3. #3
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    Re: What can you trust?

    here we had masks in closed spaces. everything came under control. then they decided to open borders, increase the number of people on gatherings and masks came off in closed spaces. cases increased (again in old people's homes). so now the borders (while open) are quite limited and quarantine is more strictly enforced. before a person could wait for 2 months to get a "must quarantine" paperwork. now it's immediate. before there was no penalty, so people went to problematic places and then had family gathering here or went to work. now quarantine is finally strictly monitored. penalty for breach is set up to 4000 EUR (for infected). in addition you could get a criminal penalty of public endangerment if you deliberately breached quarantine and infected another one.

    though it is still waving around and infection rates are higher than in June, numbers are kind of under control. hopefully it stays like that and that we at least learn how to live with it.

    first wave came from Italy but was contained relatively fast. second one came from Balkans and will also likely be contained soon. i am puzzled that USA can't get it under control. i think the issue is in politics, information flow, and knowledge (education) of individuals.

    we wear masks in closed space only. we are moving freely, going on walks. these were encouraged by doctors, so people would get enough vitamin D which helps boost the system. the only condition was that you go on a walk with close family and that if you meet a friend, just say hello, keep 2m distance (2 large steps) and wear a mask if you want to chat. people in majority respected the rule. while economy was closed, everyone was out and walking about
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  4. #4
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    Re: What can you trust?

    In addition to #3 which I think is a good editorial on the situation, there is the matter of the lack of responsibility of citizens living in a free society that allow them to be irresponsible regarding their obligations to the common welfare. On the other side of the "pascal" are tyrant (non free) societies where the welfare of the population is ignored and the government does nothing to protect the governed and the governed don't have the resources to protect themselves. In the middle are the inefficiencies of both of these exporting the problem to anywhere or anyone that lets their guard down for even a moment. Perhaps at the end of all of this we will have sufficient resistance to this covid19 that it becomes just another version of the common cold. Which will be just great if we are the ones still alive to catch it. If not it's off to the next reality. Perhaps Pascal will be there chips in hand waiting.

  5. #5
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    Re: What can you trust?

    To directly answer the question, "what can you trust?" the answer is up to you. I strongly suggest you center your thinking and focus on objective observation.

    People just openly accept what the media is telling us without question, and there is only thing that can do that: fear. People will tell you "it's not fear, I'm not afraid, it's just a precaution, it's just a mask," they will tell people who disagree they are selfish, but the only reason that do that is out of their own fear. The harsh reality about humans is that when the chips come down, no one really cares about their community, there is a primal fear that they will catch it, and that is the root of it. All the virtue signalling and noise isn't going to change that. This is how it is being sold to us, and everyone just accepts it without question. Whatever happened to QUESTION EVERYTHING?

    Covid-19 is not a hoax, it's not fake, there is no argument about that. Compare the worldwide numbers against malaria and suicide, which, last I checked, still outnumbers Covid deaths - which is another point to question, below. People keep returning to "science" as their anchor. If you look hard enough, there is a lot of science that makes what they are telling us smell very bad, and that should make people wonder.

    I'm not going to do research for you, one of the things that happens in these discussions is people won't even bother to read anything that contrasts their core beliefs. The first thing they do is ask Mr. Google how it's fake or false and adhere to that response.

    I **lived** through the Cold War. I remember when everyone who didn't have a flag hanging from their porch was assumed to be a communist spy. Ordinary, reasonable people turned into a self-policing snitch task force. It turned neighbor against neighbor, friend against friend, destroyed communities, all in the name of propaganda. I have seen this monster before, and it is with us again.

    So, who do you trust? Your sense of objectivity. A couple things to look at (and surely, these will be met with the opposition mentioned in the previous paragraph: )

    - Look at the CDC site stats. They don't collect the stats by covid alone, they call it "PIC" - Pneumonia, Influenza, and Covid-19. They literally lump all three together in a count and that is what is reported as "deaths from Covid-19."

    - You will find many articles and observations to demonstrate that it is difficult to determine if people died **FROM** Covid-19 as opposed to **WITH** Covid-19.

    - There are some rather interesting observations by multiple doctors on how we even determined we had a virus in the first days, and how the test released has an 88% failure rate. That is, if you are tested, you may turn up positive and aren't even carrying. The description is rather complex, but one of the things they do is isolate and test a virus against a gold standard; they isolate the virus itself and use it as a baseline to test against. That was never even done, they went straight for an RNA imprint of the virus and built their test around that. So if you get a test and you have some other ailment - asthma, cancer, infections - there is a very good chance your RNA will test positive for COVID. (That is an oversimplified explanation of the test, dig into it if you like.)

    - There are many resources you will find as to the origin of this disease. Eveidence is gathering that it was indeed lab-produced. Who would stand to benefit from that?

    - Worst of all, the "vaccine."

    -- You will find articles pooh-poohing the idea that humans will become "GMO's" with the mRNA vaccine." Most people don't even understand what a GMO is, they just don't want it in their food. As if it's an ingredient.

    -- GMO's are Genetically Modified Organisms to change the gene structure of an organism. A glaring example is the TED talk by some 12 year old genius years ago (clue: taking science advice from a 12 year old.) Take some fish cells and tomato cells, infuse the tomato cells with fish cells, and infuse the resulting cells into living tomatoes so their seeds produce a tomato with higher nutrition and frost resistance. If this technology were allowed to continue, it could mean an end to world hunger on a planet that is very quickly running out of resources to feed almost 8 billion people. The technology is all but banned, millions of bushels are destroyed because GMO bad, no GMO.

    -- Contrast that with the mRNA vaccine development. We are not even a year into this and they are beginning trials on a vaccine that is developed by almost the exact same process. RNA is a key enzyme in the regulation and function of genes. Infuse some cells with genes, inject the cells into humans so the **genetically modified** genes "tell" the other genes how to act. Yet, they tell you, "no, the mRNA vaccine won't make GMO's out of humans." Look into it and decide for yourself.

    -- See fear above: when this vaccine comes out, people will beg for it, and they will beg that it be mandatory. They won't even question if their children's children will be mutations.

    -- So how do we know if a person has been vaccinated? What will policy be? Show papers to get into the supermarket? How will I feel "safe" that other people are vaccinated? Any time the Ministry of Truth says something is not going to happen before it is even proposed is a really good sign it's on the way. I will let you draw conclusions as to what that means.

    -- They have already begun testing, and 21% of the test subjects experienced "severe adverse after effects" (this is in the NEJM report on the preliminary tests, prove it yourself.) Yet in that same report, they claim "no apparent side eeffects." Big pharma wants you to know what they are brewing up to shoot into you and your children is "safe."

    All that aside, it only takes a simple look at history to draw some very Orwellian conclusions. Knowing human nature is a big part of answering your question. People are not all that hard to control, we just need to instill fear intheir hearts and they will do it all for us, without blowing up a single building or firing a single shot. Covid-19 is not a hoax, but if you don't believe it is being exploited to control society, I invite you to don your mask and continue to participate in this experiment.

    As for the personal attacks I know will surely come, save them, I do not go out and any dealings with other humans no longer involve wandering about, I do not go into stores or other public places any more. I have been house bound for almost four months and have been blessed with the ability to work from home. I stay home not because I'm afraid of "catching it," I do not want to deal with the insanity going on out there. All of our expendable income has gone into food and supplies ordered online, we are stocked up and ready to hunker down. This is not going to end, there is not going to be an "after this is over," and what comes next is going to be far worse.

  6. #6
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    Re: What can you trust?

    I'm on the side of caution. I wear a mask. I'm above 75 years old, not sure if I have underlying health issues, one never knows until its too late.
    I exercise several days a week. That's not insurance, just a habit I picked up.

    Not just "What Can You Trust", but "Who Can You Trust."

  7. #7
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    Re: What can you trust?

    Johns Hopkins continues to report reliable data on cases and death tolls for a wide variety of geographical units. You can download their data from their site on GitHub: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

    Here in Massachusetts we were closed down for quite some time and are only now reopening. Masks have been required in every public place for months now. Here is the trend in new daily cases since March.



    I believe that spike resulted from the state re-examining earlier case reports and identifying a bunch as COVID-related that were not previously coded as such. All figures for caseloads and deaths are underestimates. The CDC has reported that actual cases may be as many as ten times the reported figures. For the death toll, you can look at reports of "excess deaths." See https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...h-toll-us.html.

    I'm sure you can see the difference between our experience and yours in Texas. Though we also have a Republican governor, Charlie Baker does not care about making Trump happy. (It would be a hindrance to do so in this state.) Baker also has a background as a health-care executive.
    Last edited by SeijiSensei; July 23rd, 2020 at 05:28 PM.
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  8. #8
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    Re: What can you trust?

    I don't think the "cases" data or the "died of covid" data are reliable - most of the population doesn't get tested, and for many people dying it's not clear if it was covid, a pre-existing condition, or a combination, or even covid unrelated.

    What should be a reliable indicator of something dangerous going on is "excess deaths" - take a good look at New York state and NY city for extremes.
    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c...ess_deaths.htm

    The most reliable protective guidance I've found is Chris Martinson on youtube, "Peak Prosperity" channel. An indicator of its value is that the garbage people at youtube de-monetized it.
    https://www.youtube.com/user/ChrisMa...ndotcom/videos
    Last edited by ra7411; July 23rd, 2020 at 07:02 PM.

  9. #9
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    Re: What can you trust?

    How many people die of the flu, or die with the flu? How many people die from malaria, or die with malaria?

    Are the flu and malaria not dangerous?

    The argument is, at best, disingenuous. Using the gymnastics of grammar and switching two prepositions, it creates a red herring to distract the crowd from the issue.
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  10. #10
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    Re: What can you trust?

    I don't usually wear a mask. We've stayed home since early March.
    I've worn a mask only when in public spaces around other people, like when grocery shopping. We've been only 3 times.

    I don't trust most news outlets because they have a vested interest in scaring everyone to get more clicks. I do believe scientists NOT paid for their articles and not edited by a "Journalist".
    https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the...hem-avoid-them
    The same scientist has another post about masks and why there haven't been "get B mask from Z store" recommendations. I like the clear cartoon diagrams that are complex enough to get the point, but not so complex to make the science useless.
    Last edited by TheFu; July 24th, 2020 at 12:16 AM.

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