I'm not so sure. While Linux is in no way dependent on Canonical, Canonical's Ubuntu is unquestionably the distro (with the possible exception of Chrome OS) that has the best chance of becoming a competitor with Apple and MS. Ubuntu is the distro that is encouraging third party software developers to take the Linux platform seriously.
The scenario you paint is certainly possible, but there are others.
Ubuntu is trying to become a viable alternative in the mobile market, but there are more contenders, besides the already existing and well established ones you have:
1) Tizen: backed by Samsung -the most important mobile manufacturer-, Intel -the most important CPU manufacturer- and the Linux Foundation itself.
2) Firefox OS, Backed by Mozilla and an increasing number of phone carriers.
3) Plasma Active, backed by KDE and BasysKom, for now.
All these are going to enter the market this year, and Ubuntu is not there yet. Ubuntu has good plans but no palpable product, and Ubuntu's offer will need to be really really good to compensate the fact that they might enter a market when the contenders could have already taken positions, and the growth rate might have stabilized. (By the way Tizen and KDE bet for Wayland)
On the other hand, Ubuntu is already losing users in the PC market, and the most drastic changes are yet to come. It could be that Ubuntu's offer in two or three years is so attractive that the tendency gets reversed, why not. It's even possible that the PC as we know it disappears.
So, will Mir be so important in the whole picture as you paint it? It's early to say.
Or the wayland vs Mir fight result in every third part vendor write x11 apps instead as both wayland and mir has x11 comparability with xwayland and xmir.
Last edited by hainen; March 20th, 2013 at 01:00 AM.
I would have to question that assertion. If ubuntu is synonymous with Unity, then there were some graphs that indicated as much. However, the vast majority of that market share seems to have been lost to other Ubuntu derivatives, such as Mint, Xubuntu, Kubuntu, etc... If Ubuntu switches to MIR, I would be surprised if the derivatives didn't follow sooner or later.
All true. I guess I was limiting my speculation to desktop linux. Ubuntu's only competition, by what I can tell, would be Chrome OS. If Google decides to make Chrome OS a fully functional (as in not cloud dependent) OS, I think Ubuntu would quickly be relegated to has been or also ran status (and MIR with it). It's not that Chrome OS would be better (though that's possible) it's just that Google has huge, deep pockets.
Therein lies the problem, as I see it:
- KDE has no plans to support Mir.
- GNOME neither
- Nor Enlightnment
- LXDE and XFCE are both still based on GTK2. Don't know if a port to 3 is in the works, but last time I checked they were both sticking with 2.
- I sincerely doubt anyone is going to port GTK2 to a new display server.
The upshot is that the derivatives are either going to have to run in X11 or xmir; or else wayland will have to be brought to Ubuntu for these desktops. If the marketshare is really all going to derivatives, then Mir on the desktop is going to be a lonely place.
So let me see if I understand this: Even if Ubuntu/Unity switches to MIR, the derivatives will still be able to offer an Ubuntu based system using Wayland or X11? Is it only Unity that relies on MIR? What is it that makes a derivative an "Ubuntu Derivative" if it's not, for example, using MIR?
It's a derivative if it uses the same repositories; just like "Ubuntu server" is an ubuntu derivative but installs without X11.
It's no different than supporting a different desktop environment. Kubuntu and Ubuntu use the same core OS, same repositories, are on the same release cycle, same build system, etc. The difference is one installs KDE and the other Unity. A wayland-based ubuntu derivative is just moving that difference one more layer down the stack.
I think it's a big split and I'm not too happy about it. Surely there's other places where effort is needed in Linux land. Canonical is a company though, yeay capitalism. I'd rather have them support Xfce or KDE.
I figure I'll try Ubuntu server install and add X and xmonad since I don't use Unity anyway. Finally dropped GNOME 3 also, phew. Or maybe try Debian, Arch, or something.
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