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Thread: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

  1. #21
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    The Internet will not stop growing.

    The IPv4 exhaustion fears are being overplayed. Yes, they're constricting, and they will eventually run out. We need to move to 6.

    That being said, there is an enormous amount of public IPv4 allocated but unused or allocated and wasted.

    We're not going to wake up one day to find IPv4 gone, the Internet shut down, and dogs and cats living together.

    As exhaustion approaches, addresses will first be recycled and scavenged.

  2. #22
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Internet will crash


    PS: don't procrastinate your backups!
    Last edited by alexan; December 4th, 2010 at 09:26 PM.
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  3. #23
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Quote Originally Posted by fontis View Post
    I think ISP's have been aware of this problem for a very long time, and they've taken steps to prolong the life of IPv4.

    I mean just look at dynamic ip adress' and how isp's use their specific ip's to rotate amongst the subscribers. But the inevitable problem lies within the fact that there will come a time when they can't accommodate ALL connections at once, thus the internet becomes limited access. The question then is, will the prices increase and the services rotate more into a "high-pay-to-use" service?

    I'm not so sure that the transition to IPv6 will come "so easily", considering the problems that will occur in an immediate switch.
    But well, time will tell.
    Something about the way you put that reminds me of this south park episode:http://www.southparkstudios.com/full...6-over-logging
    I had to do it.

  4. #24
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    With IPv4 only, if you dont have more address space, you CANT grow up.
    Redistributing addresses is not growing

  5. #25
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Quote Originally Posted by juancarlospaco View Post
    With IPv4 only, if you dont have more address space, you CANT grow up.
    Redistributing addresses is not growing
    Redistributing or making better use of addresses frees up more time for a smooth transition to 6. The Internet can grow by better use of what it already has while engineers are busy implementing the next path forward.

  6. #26
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Quote Originally Posted by Dustin2128 View Post
    Something about the way you put that reminds me of this south park episode:http://www.southparkstudios.com/full...6-over-logging
    Classic!!
    I hope I don't end up driving towards California for a signal though... will be quite the drive from Europe...
    They say the pen is mightier than the sword...but Steven Seagal is mightier than the Pen AND the Sword. http://tinyurl.com/ybnsx2w
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  7. #27
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Y2K was a non-event from the point of view of the consumer. However, speaking as someone who does system administration and in the past application development, in corporate IT shops Y2K was a very big deal indeed. Remember that 90-95% of software is in-house custom application code, most of which was wrong, and had to be fixed. We were still tripping across occasional Y2K bugs as late as 2004. The federal government still has some non-compliant systems 11 years later, if you can believe it.

  8. #28
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    IPv4 exhaustion was accurately predicted in 1990, when the internet only had about 100k hosts. This was one of the main drivers behind creating IPv6. The first IPv4 crisis was in 1993 when class A/B/C routing ran out of subnets. All of the routers on the internet were re-engineered for CIDR (variable length subnets), and in '94 we broke the peer-to-peer model the internet was designed on, and introduced private addresses and NAT. The trio of CIDR, RFC-1918 addresses, and NAT staved off the IPocalypse for another 17 years, which is surprisingly long.

    IPv6 abolishes NAT - if the IETF and IAB have their way - and uses 128-bit addresses with a 64:64 split between subnets and hosts. We write IPv6 addressess as 8 colon-separated parcels of 4 hexadecimal digits, do DNS lookups for AAAA records instead of A, and reverse lookups under ip6.arpa instead of in-addr.arpa. IPv6 radically overhauls ICMP, merging in ARP and IGMP functionality as neighbor discovery and multicast listener discovery. DHCPv6 is controlled by the now-required ICMP router advertisements, and often defers to stateless address autoconfiguration, where the router advertisement specifies the network prefix and default gateway address, but the host configures it's own host part of the address, either derived from its ethernet address or randomly. The IPv6 substitute for private IPv4 addresses is the unique local addresses (FC::/7). IPv6 also abolishes broadcast, instead requiring multicast.

    End users running web browsers (ISO network model layer 7) can't tell the difference between IPv4 and IPv6 at network layer 3; we're preserving the major architecture of the internet. We still use HTTP, SMTP, etc; we still use TCP and UDP at layer 4, we still use IEEE 802.whatever (ethernet, wifi, wimax, bluetooth, ...) at layer 2, and so on. Autonomous systems (routers under the control of a single entity) still peer at internet exchange points using BGP, the border gateway protocol. We just swap out IPv4 at layer 3 and swap in IPv6. Layer 3 is where IP packet addressing and routing happens. IPv4 and IPv6 don't interoperate; they coexist just the way IPv4 did with IPX (Netware) or Appletalk or DECNET.

    IPv4 exhaustion happens in stages. First IANA runs out of unallocated /8's. That may happen any time in the next 3 months. That is the time when the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Le Monde etc. will run front-page articles and all the CEO's will panic. Second, the 5 regional internet registries (ARIN, RIPE NCC, APNIC, LACNIC, AFRINIC) run out. APNIC will run out in 2011, the rest in 2012 or 2013. Third, ISP's run out; this will start happening in Asia in 2012 and be worldwide by 2014. Fourth, organizations looking for new address space can only get IPv6, because there is no more IPv4. This already happened if the organization is looking for *big* subnets; e.g. APNIC will only be allocating /22's in 2011.

    IPv6 deployment is currently spotty. 100% of the tier-1 internet backbone is dual-stack and has both IPv6 and IPv4. However, only about 20% of the middle mile (ISP's, major web sites) is v6-enabled, and only about 1% of end-users are on it in 2010. Some European ISPs such as free.fr or xs4all.nl are fully dual-stacked for all customers already. We're already on year 2 of a 7-year dual-internet interregnum, where there are separate IPv4 and IPv6 internets that don't talk to each other very well. Something like 200 Chinese universities and 18 major Chinese cities are IPv6-only already. China Telecom, the world's largest ISP, will start phasing out IPv4 in 2015.

    IPv4 doesn't stop working just because the address pool is fully depleted. If you have IPv4 now, you can continue to use it for quite a while longer, probably through 2020. Expect the price of public IPv4 addresses to rise sharply; we currently have about 5 billion IPv4 devices chasing 4 billion IPv4 addresses, headed by 2020 for around 22 billion devices. Historically there was no economic incentive to deploy IPv6 prior to IPv4 exhaustion; however, once IPv6 is universal and dominant, probably in 2017, there is a very strong incentive for tier-1 ISP's to ditch IPv4, since IPv6-only is kinder to backbone routers than IPv4+IPv6 by a factor of about 18x. However, the last IPv4 device probably won't be retired until 2036 or so; its simply that after 2020 legacy IPv4 devices will have to use IPv6 tunnels for transit. This is already happening for v6-heavy rollouts using dual-stack-lite, where you get a public IPv6 address, IPv6-only transport, and a private IPv4 address that tunnels to a so-called carrier-grade NAT device at your ISP.

    What IPv4 exhaustion means is that new stuff is going to have to support IPv6. Even in the US this includes 4G smartphone rollouts, the electrical smartgrid, etc. In India and China it's going to include the next 2 billion new internet users. World-wide it's going to include the next 4 billion smartphones; we currently have 5 billion active cellphones, but only 10% IP-enabled so far. There will be a gradually increasing number of IPv6-only servers and services; eventually you will actually prefer IPv6 to IPv4, perhaps as soon as December 2014.

    All current computer operating systems (Windows 7, any recent Linux, Mac OS-X 10.6.5, AIX, Solaris, HP/UX, ...) already support IPv6. Most current smartphone operating systems (iOS 4, Android, windows phone 7, symbian, blackberry, ...) also already support IPv6. So on the consumer side, once your ISP offers native IPv6, you can start using it as soon as you upgrade your broadband modem and wifi router to newer models or newer firmware that supports it. Expect your ISP to start offering IPv6 in 2011 or 2012. Currently about 85% of our planet's ISP's are working on IPv6 rollouts, including all of the biggest ones.

    Don't buy any new network equipment which doesn't support IPv6. For cable modems, this typically means DOCSIS 3.0, although some recent DOCSIS 2 modems can support IPv6. DSL modems mostly don't support IPv6 yet, though the forthcoming "X" specification is about to change that. It will probably be 2013 before the last IPv4-only wifi routers disappear from the market; in 2011 you'll have to shop carefully to find IPv6 support.

    Businesses should support IPv6 at their border service as soon as possible, preferably by 2012. This is not too hard; it mostly means adapting web applications to cope with IPv6 for sessions, cookies, log files, etc. They don't have to rip IPv4 out of their backend; if the web server still talks to the app server over IPv4, and the app server to the database tier over IPv4, that's OK for now.

    Bleeding edge types can use tunneling technologies such as 6in4, 6to4, or Teredo to experiment with IPv6 right now, even before their ISP offers it. Respectively, see e.g. hurricane electric, anyweb's nifty tun6to4 script, or install the miredo client.

    Examples of content providers in the US who are already IPv6-enabled include Google, Youtube, Facebook, and CNN.

  9. #29
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Good thing i'm backing up the internet onto my backup harddrive.

    People worry about way too much. People worried when they ran out of phone numbers.. all they did was add more numbers.

    people worried about y2k... nothing happened even when code wasn't fixed, things worked just fine.

    How about you worry about real issues like the people who have no food or clothes in your town. Worry that your local school somehow keeps raising taxes and yet the kids are losing programs like music, science and field trips.. how does that equate?

    How about worrying about super volcanoes or fault lines, or metorites or aliens who want to use our planets for resources and kill us all.


    Just saying worse things to worry about than not being able to torrent the next big movie release.

  10. #30
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    Re: What will actually happen in the event of total IPv4 exhaustion?

    Question: If my ISP would offer me "native IPv6" in the near future, having the fact in mind that both protocol versions don't talk to each other, wouldn't that mean I would be barred from ipv4 only services?

    There is this dual stacking which uses both protocols at the same time, whichever the other end of the request offers. Is this part of "native IPv6"?

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