[SOLVED] Where do you think microsoft/apple/linux will be in 20 years?

[themissinglink1]

Personally I have the bleak view that not much will have changed. Microsoft will keep their market share maybe losing a bit to linux and apple but still not enough to find linux on every new computer bought. What are your thoughts? :)

[billgoldberg]

Personally I have the bleak view that not much will have changed. Microsoft will keep their market share maybe losing a bit to linux and apple but still not enough to find linux on every new computer bought. What are your thoughts? :)

Impossible to predict.

You can only speculate.

I would think Linux would gain serious ground because most things will have moved to web based apps.

Everything would be compatible with everything, so a free OS would do the same as a non-free one.

[sydbat]

20 years ago people thought Apple would be the OS on all new computers. Who knows what will happen...unless you know someone with a time machine...

[zmjjmz]

I think MS will give up on Windows and move to selling MS Office 2025 on all platforms.
Apple will likely move into the digital smell business, pushing it into the mainstream market.
Linux (as in the kernel) will have... better hardware support?
Linux is kind of amorphous, so it's hard to predict "where it will be" in 20 years.

[fiddledd]

Unless there's a dramatic change in the World I think Capitalism will still be around. Nothing will change much as far as market share is concerned. All three will adapt to new technology and the one with the most money will be the most dominant.

[linuxguymarshall]

Linux will be much more popular with most companies besides Dell offering it as a pre-install option on new computers. M$ will be where Apple is today, more popular than Linux but not as popular as Apple who will be where Microsoft is today.

[aysiu]

I doubt anyone in 1988 had any idea the computing world would be now what it is now.

So I don't think any predictions we make now about 2028 will be meaningful. If any predictions are correct, they will be simply by buck-shot guessings' chance.

[fiddledd]

I doubt anyone in 1988 had any idea the computing world would be now what it is now.

So I don't think any predictions we make now about 2028 will be meaningful. If any predictions are correct, they will be simply by buck-shot guessings' chance.

Prove it, I bet you £100,000 my prediction is right.:)

[DoctorMO]

I dream that Linux, GNU and BusyBox will be used as the technological bases (social, political and economic) for many more innovations. The social innovations we are only just starting to see, the political ones will be delayed but will come eventually and the economic ones are already upon up they are up against network effects.

[jespdj]

20 years?! This can't be a serious question.

Who knows what the world will look like in 20 years? Maybe The Netherlands will have drowned because of rising sea levels because of global warming.

I will be 57 in 2028. Bill Gates will be 72 in 2028.

Maybe intelligent robots do all of the work for us. Maybe PCs don't even exist anymore in 20 years. Maybe Microsoft, Apple and Linux will all be obsolete and irrelevant, replaced by something we can't yet imagine today.

[VitaLiNux]

20 years?! This can't be a serious question.

Who knows what the world will look like in 20 years? Maybe The Netherlands will have drowned because of rising sea levels because of global warming.

I will be 57 in 2028. Bill Gates will be 72 in 2028.

Maybe intelligent robots do all of the work for us. Maybe PCs don't even exist anymore in 20 years. Maybe Microsoft, Apple and Linux will all be obsolete and irrelevant, replaced by something we can't yet imagine today.
I disagree with that part in bold. PCs will do exist, but I think they'd be way too different from what we've seen so far, as different as comparing a walkman with an ipod Touch. Really, 20 years from now is too much time for saying what will be of the OS market. I could say Linux will take more presence in mobile devices and Windows itself will be just history, but many things will change within this period of time and it's hard to tell one thing or the other. By the way, I'd be 49 by 2028, kind of old, isn't it? :)

[aysiu]

Who knows what the world will look like in 20 years? If someone can find me an article from 1988 that says
In 20 years, everyday people will have portable cordless phones the size of a cassette tape. For $499, you'll be able to get a portable computer (screen and keyboard included) that can store 320,000,000 bytes of data. Instead of having a Walkman, you'll have a much smaller device that will hold and play the equivalent of hundreds of cassettes and LPs of music - it'll also play movies and TV shows. Microsoft will have developed a full point-and-click interface to replace MS-DOS and an Office productivity suite that everyone will use, including Apple users. Computers will all be connected in a worldwide network that allows people to exchange information, manage bank accounts, shop, connect with old friends, find dating partners, and receive technical help with computer problems. then I will start taking current predictions about 2028 computing seriously.

[Warpnow]

Linux will dominate the low-end spectrum of the computer world. I think in 20 years you'll be able to pick up a new pc for $50 at the corner store and do all basic tasks on it, and it will run linux. Its server position will remain unchanged,

Microsoft will gear itself towards the more dedicated user, and will be for people who want to game. The line between console gaming and PC gaming will blur. PCs will become more modular. Installing a hard drive, Cpu, Ram, ect, will be as easy as putting a CD into a cd player, and people will be "building" their own gaming/multimedia consoles running windows.

I do not believe Apple will be in the computer industry in 20 years. They will have focused on their more profitable endeavours. The upshoot of linux on the low-end spectrum will have lead to OS X's "virus free" and "hassle free" ideas to be null and void for the average user. Why spend the money on a MAC when the same (to them) can be achieved for relative pocket change on a low-end Linux machine? Most of the MAC consumers are relatively low-intensity users. Apple will still make high-end workstations, but it will be a niche, and will be battling Linux Workstations for control of the Multimedia world.

And that is my prediction.

[artir]

20 years...

The think I think will happen: Linux will evolve and it will enter a "more users->more games->more users" cycle, so games won't be a problem. Ubuntu will be available as usually...
Canonical will grow larger and buy other companies...
Windows(unless MS make something totally new) will slowly dissappear.
MacOSX... It will be there IF they allow other PC makers to install MacOSX on their PC's. (That won't happen XD).

Yeah, mainly agree with Warpnow in all but the windows gaming consoles, but.. who knows?

[toupeiro]

A 20 year technology prediction at todays rate of changeover can have no basis whatsoever. I'd humor theories of a 5-7 year prediction, at least we can apply some trends that way

[aysiu]

Reminder to folks:
Ubuntu itself is less than four years old
iPods came out seven years ago and didn't become popular until three years ago
Windows 3.1 came out sixteen years ago

[themissinglink1]

yeah i realize 20 years is a bit excessive..... :lolflag: I was a bit distracted when i posted this Q. It arose when i was having a conversation about how quickly tech has improved and just wondered how you think this rapid growth would affect the OS's in the future. How long do you think microsoft can sustain its grip on the market share; can apple/ubuntu/linux distros grapple a substantial share away from microsoft in the immediate future or will this be more long term. I can certainly see Ubuntu outliving a microsoft desktop OS. May find their MSOffice is more profitable with more users switching and stick to that side?????

[Bungo Pony]

I will try for 10 years...

Apple will be the most common OS, with Linux as a close second. Windows will have fallen (or become completely wiped out) and Microsoft will continue to develop computer software and video game systems that still crash.

In 20 years, there will be a chance that a completely different OS will have taken over the market (Solaris maybe?)