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VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 04:24 PM
Would it be the beginning of the end of the Microsoft monopoly?

I think that many people are getting absorbed with the new market trend- The massive use of Netbooks (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook). Asus, Gigabyte, Acer, MSI and many others are shipping different versions of these gadgets to our stores.

Many of them come with some flavor of Linux, others with the almost-seven-years-old Windows XP.

But what I see is that mainstream consumers (http://http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=342) are tending to buy the netbooks with Linux over those with Windows because they are better...And cheaper. And always you will have the freedom (http://fsf.org) of customizing your eeepc and make it neater (http://www.eeebuntu.org/).

But despite of some sudden shakes (http://www.betanews.com/article/Asus_Eee_Linux_PC_to_become_Windows_machine/1205439702) that this new Linux niche has had, I see a good opportunity for Linux to hit the market heavily!:KS:KS:KS:KS:KS

zmjjmz
July 10th, 2008, 04:33 PM
If anything, Apple is taking down MS.
Linux will follow.

Sealbhach
July 10th, 2008, 04:37 PM
If anything, Apple is taking down MS.
Linux will follow.

Apple will take down Linux? Interesting.

Apple is tied to its hardware though, Linux is free to roam.


.

BDNiner
July 10th, 2008, 04:45 PM
Unless either Apple or Linux can make serious inroads into the corporate desktop market i don't see this any time soon. Home computers are a smaller part of the overall PC market, the corporate world is where all the money is made and will be the battle ground in the near future.

deNoobius
July 10th, 2008, 04:46 PM
You guys are dreaming. Microsoft still has by far the most market share--something like 90% of all computers IN THE WORLD run a Microsoft OS.

Forgetting about servers for the moment, the Linux desktop share is minuscule, not even a factor. Apple has been making some inroads, but is hardly going to "take down" Microsoft, whatever that means.

I think that because we hang out on this board a lot, we kind of lose perspective.

T2manner
July 10th, 2008, 04:50 PM
I think Microsoft will still be the top dog for quite some time.
It will take years before Linux or Apple come close to taking them down, but I believe it WILL happen.

YaroMan86
July 10th, 2008, 04:52 PM
Apple will take down Linux? Interesting.

Apple is tied to its hardware though, Linux is free to roam.


.

Hahaha.... no.

Which is more likely:

A. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay even MORE money for ENTIRELY NEW HARDWARE for ANOTHER locked down, expensive operating system.

As for Linux overtaking Windows. I *am* certain it will happen. Most industry experts who aren't payed off by Microsoft agree. But another thing they agree on though, it will happen very slowly.

I'd say give it another 5-10 years.

- or -

B. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay no more money than a CD-R to use the SAME hardware for an entirely open-ended, free operating system that is easy to use (With the right distro of course), reliable operating system.

Now, I know some consumers might make the uninformed decision and buy a Mac. But never underestimate that drive to save the almighty dollar in the average consumer.

CD-Rs are dirt cheap these days. Macs are not, especially when compared to something like a CD-R with a gratis operating system burned on it.

pofigster
July 10th, 2008, 04:53 PM
Netbooks aren't that popular. People will feel constrained by the lack of power and options. Business people want their laptop to be fast - even if it means lugging around a brick. And Windows has too much market share to just disappear. Computers are about interoperability and as long as Linux is perceived as being different - it won't be a substitute.

KingTermite
July 10th, 2008, 04:56 PM
Linux is great and all, and I'm damn near 100% converted, but taking over the MS domination will not happen ANY TIME SOON.

1) Apple has more chance than Linux does
2) I don't think Linux has that as a goal, for the most part
3) It will never happen until/unless the Linux community unite and stop branching a new but slightly different distribution every 10 minutes.

From Linux Wikipedia reference (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linux):
IDC's report for Q1 2007 says that Linux now holds 12.7% of the overall server market. This estimate was based on the number of Linux servers sold by various companies.

Desktop adoption of Linux is approximately 1%. In comparison, Microsoft operating systems hold more than 90%

kool_kat_os
July 10th, 2008, 04:56 PM
just read my sig....

T2manner
July 10th, 2008, 04:57 PM
Hahaha.... no.

Which is more likely:

A. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay even MORE money for ENTIRELY NEW HARDWARE for ANOTHER locked down, expensive operating system.

As for Linux overtaking Windows. I *am* certain it will happen. Most industry experts who aren't payed off by Microsoft agree. But another thing they agree on though, it will happen very slowly.

I'd say give it another 5-10 years.

- or -

B. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay no more money than a CD-R to use the SAME hardware for an entirely open-ended, free operating system that is easy to use (With the right distro of course), reliable operating system.

Now, I know some consumers might make the uninformed decision and buy a Mac. But never underestimate that drive to save the almighty dollar in the average consumer.

CD-Rs are dirt cheap these days. Macs are not, especially when compared to something like a CD-R with a gratis operating system burned on it.

I don't think it's as simple for Corporations/Businesses to just switch to Linux because it's cheaper.
Most companies all use Windows XP.
They train their employees to use the Windows software.
It would be a huge and dramatic move to switch to Linux, and that is not going to happen. But you're right, it will be a very slow process.

YaroMan86
July 10th, 2008, 04:58 PM
Apple will take down Linux? Interesting.

Apple is tied to its hardware though, Linux is free to roam.


.

Hahaha.... no.

Which is more likely:

A. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay even MORE money for ENTIRELY NEW HARDWARE for ANOTHER locked down, expensive operating system.

- or -

B. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay no more money than a CD-R to use the SAME hardware for an entirely open-ended, free operating system that is easy to use (With the right distro of course), reliable operating system.

Now, I know some consumers might make the uninformed decision and buy a Mac. But never underestimate that drive to save the almighty dollar in the average consumer.

CD-Rs are dirt cheap these days. Macs are not, especially when compared to something like a CD-R with a gratis operating system burned on it.

As for Linux overtaking Windows, I, like most industry experts (I'm not one.) already see Linux as something likely to replace Windows... just not very quickly.

Unlike BeOS, which also had a shot at that very same goal, Linux is not something made by ONE developer. Sure, we have the Linux Foundation, but that's almost just a supervisory/core group. We have IBM, Novell, HP, Canonical, thousands of independent developers, and the GPL on our side.

If Microsoft were to manage to "kill" Linux, all that would happen is a fork... take a previous version of the kernel and call it something new, and take out whatever "infringing" code allowed MS to kill Linux.

If Microsoft were to crush the Linux Foundation... so what? Linus Torvalds and all them would just run off and form a new organization that'll likely do the exact same thing!

Basically, this is how Linux will win, if not for the fact it is, quite simply, a superior operating system, but out of sheer INVULNERABILITY, Linux will win.

darthmob
July 10th, 2008, 04:58 PM
I'm not sure if I want microsoft to lose it's domination on computers! if it will happen, all this pesky spyware / virus / malware will move over too as it tries to attract the most people possible.
there are a lot of downsides with being very popular and microsoft is the best example in my opinion.

Joshuwa
July 10th, 2008, 04:58 PM
You will never see Linux as the supreme OS that is #1 in use. Ever.

The same thing that makes us love it (its freedom) is also what holds it back. Freedom is both Linux's strong point and Achilles' heel.

Because it is free and open-source, it does not bring with it the same corporate financial potential that proprietary systems do; it is immune to vendor lock-in, high financial yeilds, and profitiable ventures.

Businesses don't put effort and time into something if it is not going to pay out - they do whatever it takes to make the most money in the quickest time. Because Linux is not an ideal (or even good) platform for this agenda, it will remain on the sidelines for use in specific fields and by hobbyists.

Quite simply: Linux has users, not customers. That's what keeps it from booming and getting widespread support.

Businesses care about dollars, not making the world a happy place where everyone holds hands and sings along to the synchonized sound of a billion Ubuntu systems booting up at once.

But don't worry - being #1 is not always a good thing. Because of Linux's limited use, it remains unbloated, and not the target of AOL trial disks, Earthlink toolbars, and all kinds of other garbage. Think of it as your best kept secret; it's only good so long as everyone isn't onto it.

Canis familiaris
July 10th, 2008, 04:58 PM
I frankly do not even want Linux to *overtake* MS. I want Linux to get 8-10% so that we get good hardware support and still have sense of exclusivity.

pofigster
July 10th, 2008, 05:00 PM
I agree - I would prefer for Linux to remain niche - it means less attacks, fewer viruses, etc... I would actually prefer 1-5% market share to stay below almost all of the radar. Get hardware and software support - even game development (because Linux is for games way more than Macs are...) but not the crap.

Prefix100
July 10th, 2008, 05:01 PM
You guys are dreaming. Microsoft still has by far the most market share--something like 90% of all computers IN THE WORLD run a Microsoft OS.

Forgetting about servers for the moment, the Linux desktop share is minuscule, not even a factor. Apple has been making some inroads, but is hardly going to "take down" Microsoft, whatever that means.

I think that because we hang out on this board a lot, we kind of lose perspective.

+1

Microsoft is just better at business, it smothers innovation, and destroys rivals - ensuring it stays top dog for many years to come.

LordDelta
July 10th, 2008, 05:09 PM
I think....(And I'm a noob who just gets impressions)....

That Windows isn't going anywhere anytime soon. As the poster mentioned, there is a lot in the workplace that supports Windows, however as Linux and Apple continue to improve their system and available software, there is less and less reason to use Windows. I think Linux and Apple being used in the home either can't be ignored, the people that make tech decisions at the workplace doubtless mostly grew up on Windows machines at home, but people relearning what computing means will inevitably make some sort of difference.

Microsoft has had to admit that Linux is a real competitor, or so the news it seems has been saying. And, the articles in which this has been mentioned have been talking of business fields, such as server farms running on Linux instead of Windows. I know we've had a couple victories in the film industry too, Shrek was server-farmed on Linux. Now, granted, I don't really know how things are shaping up, but it seems to me, that, if Linux and Apple are making inroads to real Microsoft territory, not just geek territory, there is no reason that should stop. It might just take a long, long, while.

I also think that we have to thank Apple and its adds for a change in mentality perhaps, they are quite amusing (mostly) and help I think to open up people to the possibility that things other than Microsoft work.

RiceMonster
July 10th, 2008, 05:38 PM
Why do some people view this like it's some kind of war or rebellion? Why are some people so concerned with Linux taking over the desktop market?

It boils down to this:
1) It's not going to happen
2) Who cares? If it works for you, be happy.

derekroyce
July 10th, 2008, 05:45 PM
I think it sounds like a good option for parents to give to their kids for school and cloud stuff.

I wonder if Ubuntu works on the Eee?

fluteflute
July 10th, 2008, 05:48 PM
I frankly do not even want Linux to *overtake* MS. I want Linux to get 8-10% so that we get good hardware support and still have sense of exclusivity.
Sounds good to me!

VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 05:56 PM
Hahaha.... no.

Which is more likely:

A. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay even MORE money for ENTIRELY NEW HARDWARE for ANOTHER locked down, expensive operating system.

As for Linux overtaking Windows. I *am* certain it will happen. Most industry experts who aren't payed off by Microsoft agree. But another thing they agree on though, it will happen very slowly.

I'd say give it another 5-10 years.

- or -

B. Someone, to break free of a locked-down, expensive operating system, will pay no more money than a CD-R to use the SAME hardware for an entirely open-ended, free operating system that is easy to use (With the right distro of course), reliable operating system.

Now, I know some consumers might make the uninformed decision and buy a Mac. But never underestimate that drive to save the almighty dollar in the average consumer.

CD-Rs are dirt cheap these days. Macs are not, especially when compared to something like a CD-R with a gratis operating system burned on it.

I agree. I see this happening before 2017. It's baking into the oven! I think that Microsoft(and Apple for that matter)will have to opensource their OSes or they'd get heavily beaten by Open Source products. Why? There's way too many advantages for those who use, say, Linux(or *BSD)because of the kind of licenses they have. Who in their conscious mind and have businesses wouldn't give a try to an entire suite of programs that you can use FOR FREE and can install in AS MANY COMPUTERS AS YOU HAVE? That's the huge wall Apple an Microsoft have in the middle of their way...

geoken
July 10th, 2008, 05:56 PM
I think MS will quickly loose ground, if OS X or Linux + OS X gain enough of a market share that writing Windows only apps becomes the exception rather than the norm.

Some companies may decide to write a Windows and OS X app, but I think many will take a different route and write truly cross platform apps (ie. with Qt).

Naegling23
July 10th, 2008, 05:58 PM
Apple is eroding Microsoft on the high end.
Peole who dont care about price, or want something that they think looks better (macbook vs. black dell brick)
Linux is eroding Microsoft on the low end.
People who dont have a lot of money (walmart pc's). Also techies tend to gravitate toward linux in a general sence.

But, MS holds the middle of the road, average consumer/business user. I think I can see Apple stealing 10+ % on the top, and linux stealing 10+ % on the bottom. That still leaves MS with 80%. But it also leaves linux and apple as viable options who would each be happy with 10% (plus, games, hardware support, etc).

Now I know, some people buy cheap apple products because an imac is a cheaper alternative, and a lot of high end power users put linux on their 5k gaming machine. I was just generalizing a bit, but I see apple and linux combining for about 25% or so of the market share. With windows as the dominant player.

Le-Froid
July 10th, 2008, 06:00 PM
Will take a very long time...MS has around 91.8% of the market share, apple has around 7%, and linux has around 1.2%

EvilMarshmallow
July 10th, 2008, 06:05 PM
I wonder if Ubuntu works on the Eee?

It does... mine runs hardy, I've tried both Ubuntu and Xubuntu. Aside from the battery meter being wrong, an odd issue with the GNOME keyring not working when you boot from SD card, and of course lack of native support for a proprietary wifi driver (madwifi has a great fix for it), it runs like a champ.

There's a growing community working on ways to make the eee Ubuntu-friendly.

VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 06:07 PM
You will never see Linux as the supreme OS that is #1 in use. Ever.

The same thing that makes us love it (its freedom) is also what holds it back. Freedom is both Linux's strong point and Achilles' heel.

Because it is free and open-source, it does not bring with it the same corporate financial potential that proprietary systems do; it is immune to vendor lock-in, high financial yeilds, and profitiable ventures.

Businesses don't put effort and time into something if it is not going to pay out - they do whatever it takes to make the most money in the quickest time. Because Linux is not an ideal (or even good) platform for this agenda, it will remain on the sidelines for use in specific fields and by hobbyists.

Quite simply: Linux has users, not customers. That's what keeps it from booming and getting widespread support.

Businesses care about dollars, not making the world a happy place where everyone holds hands and sings along to the synchonized sound of a billion Ubuntu systems booting up at once.

But don't worry - being #1 is not always a good thing. Because of Linux's limited use, it remains unbloated, and not the target of AOL trial disks, Earthlink toolbars, and all kinds of other garbage. Think of it as your best kept secret; it's only good so long as everyone isn't onto it.

The Open Source community is changing the way of making businesses. Already.

LordDelta
July 10th, 2008, 06:08 PM
Just wanted to point out that Apple is "based" on an open source Unix system (you can download the source for their kernel) - someone was talking about Apple and Microsoft needing to open-source their systems. Apple is not an enemy of the open-source movement, at least not as much as Windows is.

nick09
July 10th, 2008, 06:10 PM
Its it gonna take a long, long, long, time for Microsoft to go down as they know the business of computers and what makes people buy their product. Linux may one time win but will we ever grow corrupt as Microsoft? As developers lose revenue from the failing windows platform many people will start making malware and spyware to somehow crush someone's PC into mush. Some popularity is good like new developers and some popularity is bad, aka spyware developers.

You have to consider "The Good", "The Bad", and "The Ugly" parts of popularity being shifted to the Linux platform.

VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 06:15 PM
I think it sounds like a good option for parents to give to their kids for school and cloud stuff.

I wonder if Ubuntu works on the Eee?
In my first post on the fist page you'll see a link to Ubuntu for EEEs.

qamelian
July 10th, 2008, 06:23 PM
You will never see Linux as the supreme OS that is #1 in use. Ever.
This amuses me. Back in the late 1980's, most of my friends and I were solidly entrenched in either the Atari ST or Commodore Amiga camps and could not believe that any sane human being would choose to use a Microsoft OS. In fact, at that time even our local universities were choosing Atari ST machines over MS-based PCs. We used to say the same thing: "You will never see DOS/Windows as a mainstream OS. Ever."

Don't count your chickens too soon. Microsoft will either need to bend to accommodate changes in the marketplace or they will fade into irrelevance, just as other OSes / vendors have in the past.

VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 06:35 PM
Just wanted to point out that Apple is "based" on an open source Unix system (you can download the source for their kernel) - someone was talking about Apple and Microsoft needing to open-source their systems. Apple is not an enemy of the open-source movement, at least not as much as Windows is.

You mean the OSX/Leopard source? I don't think I can find the Apple's FINAL PRODUCT sources.

Canis familiaris
July 10th, 2008, 06:39 PM
You mean the OSX/Leopard source? I don't think I can find the Apple's FINAL PRODUCT sources.

No he meant that the OSX kernel is based on Darwin which is Open Source.
YOu could download it and use GNOME in it.

But Apple has packaged its proprietary code over the open source Darwin such as Aqua, Dashboard, Quicktime, etc. and all other things to make the environment to complete Mac OS X.

Prefix100
July 10th, 2008, 06:40 PM
Why do some people view this like it's some kind of war or rebellion? Why are some people so concerned with Linux taking over the desktop market?

It boils down to this:
1) It's not going to happen
2) Who cares? If it works for you, be happy.

Because it doesn't work to its full potential until retailers and company's start to see linux as a key player.

madjr
July 10th, 2008, 06:41 PM
netbooks are not enough.

will be extremely slow until i see the year of linux in the laptop (by all the big hardware vendors)

When i see Ubuntu laptops advertised at the Dell front page then it's really the Year of linux !!

Chame_Wizard
July 10th, 2008, 06:52 PM
Linux already kick *** M$:lolflag:

keiichidono
July 10th, 2008, 07:05 PM
netbooks are not enough.

will be extremely slow until i see the year of linux in the laptop (by all the big hardware vendors)

When i see Ubuntu laptops advertised at the Dell front page then it's really the Year of linux !!
This kinda sounds like Linux rising, like we're some kind of underground group of hackers (no offense). I will wait and see how things turn out, if Linux stops meeting my needs (need an app for school or something) i won't hesitate to stop using it, also true if it dies out. I will just have to use the best OS that meets my needs and it may or may not be Windows. I personally hope we do, as Windows is an obsolete OS as it stands and is no longer fit to be mainstream.

Vorian Grey
July 10th, 2008, 07:08 PM
You guys are dreaming. Microsoft still has by far the most market share--something like 90% of all computers IN THE WORLD run a Microsoft OS.


This is a popular notion but I think you will have a difficult time proving it. I've read some interesting threads in different places about this and the facts are no one really knows how many Linux installations there are out there.

I think Microsoft is on that long slide towards the end. It might be decades or a next year before it gets here, and they will never be gone entirely, but I think even Microsoft knows their days are numbered.

techwrekfix
July 10th, 2008, 07:20 PM
As long as the general public is willing to put up Microsoft's poorly written code then there's not much hope for Linux to take over more than 30% of the market share. More business are making the switch or at least working in a mixed network but until the public makes the switch Microsoft is king.

Joshuwa
July 10th, 2008, 07:27 PM
The Open Source community is changing the way of making businesses. Already.

Of course there is an influence, just as many open source projects are influenced by closed source alternatives.

But at no point will businesses ever shift from developing for a highly profitable environment (closed source) to the near zero-yield realm of open source.

Businesses may use open source platforms to develop their closed source products, but there will always be more users of the product than there are businesses creating it. That is the basic fundamental principle which keeps a business going.

The more corporate interests a platform develops, the more uses a platform has, and the more appealing it becomes to the average user.

People aren't drawn to OS X and Windows because of their basic functions as an OS or how their printer settings dialog looks. They are drawn to OS X and Windows because of the programs and applications that are available for them; such programs and applications that only exist because creating them is very profitable to their developers.

More profitable platform -> more developer interests -> higher quality applications -> more user appeal -> more users -> more successful OS.

People get on their computers to use applications, not the OS itself. The difference between Linux and Windows (success-wise) is related to their individual philosophies.

Windows is an application-oriented OS; the OS may be lacking, but the choice and quality of applications is not. Linux focuses mostly on the OS; the Linux OS is very high quality, but the ease of use and quality of the available applications is very poor.

Additionally, it is difficult to gauge Linux on the same playing field as OS X and Windows. Not only are the design philosophies and market potentials different, the user base is equally different.

Riffer
July 10th, 2008, 07:52 PM
From what I understand (and I forget where I got this info) linux is already the main OS, if you count all personal computing devices such as MP3 players, phones, etc.

What linux offers over MS and Apple is the ability to mod. You can take the kernel and add whatever desktop, file manager and apps you want. You can even take the pieces (like the desktop environment) and mod it still further, all fairly easily. This gives hardware manufactures real control over what they ship.

Will Linux overtake MS in the desktop market? No I don't think so. But with this ability to mod, it will take away a big chunk.

acelin
July 10th, 2008, 08:02 PM
Overtaking would mean we have more users than Microsoft.

We don't.

Therefore we are not overtaking. Catching up? No. Making progress?

Oh yeah!

yamfox
July 10th, 2008, 08:03 PM
Somebody should record this...


No evolution
Sometimes it depresses me
The same old same
We keep repeating history
The institution curses curiosity
It's our conviction
Linux is not the enemy

A revolution
Is the solution
A revolution
Is the solution

I don't feel guilty
No matter what they're telling me
I won't feel dirty and buy into their misery
I won't be shamed cause I believe that OS's should be free
It fuels the heart and Linux is not my enemy

A revolution
Is the solution
A revolution
Is the solution

True freedom is like gold
There's not enough to go around
But then there's MS and doesn't MS love everyone?
Give me a choice
Give me a chance to turn the key and find my voice
Linux is not the enemy

A revolution
Is the solution
A revolution
Is the solution
Linux is not the enemy
A revolution

silkstone
July 10th, 2008, 08:12 PM
Windows will be around for as long as hardware vendors ship it with new machines, and software writers aim at 90% of the market. Vista made many people look at alternatives, but the main winners have been Apple. Their systems are overpriced, but they work and their marketing is spot-on. Linux has very few salespeople, and none as good as Steve Jobs.

It's Catch 22 - few commercial software companies will write for Linux while it has only 1% of the market, and even that is fragmented into a confusion variety of distributions. And many people won't use Linux because the software they want/need is not available. I don't see an easy way to break this circle.

I'm happy using Ubuntu for 95% of the things I need, but I can't ditch XP because of the other 5%. I can't see that changing in the near future, although I hope it will.

MBlink
July 10th, 2008, 08:19 PM
I'm fairly new in the Linux community. I switched because I was fed up with Vista (as are many users as I understand it.). The choice was back to XP or something else. That something else was Linux.

I think MS will have a great influence on their own destiny. If they make mistakes like Vista, more and more people will consider an alternative.

More and more PC suppliers are giving the option to pre-install linux instead of windows, despite MS (unjust) campaign to force vendors to supply only windows.

I don't think you should underestimate the influence of the home user. if everyone at home uses it, it will trickle through to the business area, starting in small businesses working it's way up. Apart from money, Linux also means not being dependent on one monopolistic party for your software, which is also important.
I have read the french police (gendarmerie) is switching to open source, as are other government institutions.

Concerning (business)software, I think you will see more and more online apps. Even MS is moving there with office. This depends less on the OS you have. With that out of the way, the choice of businesses can be easy concidering license costs of MS software. The problems lie with special software, like CAD software, but if companies ask for it, those suppliers will need to supply native Linux software.

cmay
July 10th, 2008, 08:21 PM
i think that whitin time linux or some free OS will take over the mainstream position. given five years or so maybe.
maybe minix and freedos will have use for older hardware.
at least i hope so.
it takes more energy to produce a computer than have it run the computers lifetime so i sincerly hope older computers
(i use many older computers and hate my new 64bit computer:))
will have some use for something.
linux is the most well developed free alternative to microsofts windows i guess.

Darkade
July 10th, 2008, 09:01 PM
From http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp


2008-----WinXP-----W2000-----Win98-----Vista-----W2003-----Linux-----Mac
June-----74.6%-----2.6%------0.2%------10.0%-----1.9%------3.7%------4.8%


I think that XP still holding most of the market (and support being extended 'till 2014) means something. It means that people do not upgrade to vista, for reasons all of we know, but that goes way beyond that, that means microsft might be loosing people trust, so by when Windows 7 comes up, people will not upgrade, meaning that microsoft will still have a large proportion of the desktops, but with XP, they will not be making much of a profit with their new OS. And, while that happens, Apple and Linux will extend their share of the market.

I think linux would share more of the market *if* the community, or the large players (cannonical, red hat, novel) would focus more in marketing.

Also large computer manufacturers are moving into Linux, Asus, Dell, Alienware (probably) and some software companies have seen a real market in Linux users, with Adobe supporting Linux platforms with Flash10 (check here (http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/flashplayer10/releasenotes.html#features_ocre))
and the boom of Open-Source software we've seen in the last years, I'd say Microsft's going down, 5-10 years, true. But it's going down, the industry it self, not necessarily Linux or Apple, will bring Microsft down.

DeadSuperHero
July 10th, 2008, 09:07 PM
At least we're beating out Win2k and 98, that's a start!
And we're pretty close on Mac! Not bad, I say.

Darkade
July 10th, 2008, 09:17 PM
Also, prove that Open-Source is the next step in software is Firefox. Which by now is the most used Browser in the world.

Again from http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp


2008-----IE7---------IE6---------IE5------FIREFOX------Moz-------S--------O
June-----27.0%-----26.5%-----0.5%----41.0%--------0.5%----2.6%---1.7%

cardinals_fan
July 10th, 2008, 09:36 PM
I don't care at all.

cardinals_fan
July 10th, 2008, 09:38 PM
Also, prove that Open-Source is the next step in software is Firefox. Which by now is the most used Browser in the world.

Again from http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp
No, it's not. Counting the IE versions seperately is misleading and incorrect.

VitaLiNux
July 10th, 2008, 09:44 PM
From http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp


I think that XP still holding most of the market (and support being extended 'till 2014) means something. It means that people do not upgrade to vista, for reasons all of we know, but that goes way beyond that, that means microsft might be loosing people trust, so by when Windows 7 comes up, people will not upgrade, meaning that microsoft will still have a large proportion of the desktops, but with XP, they will not be making much of a profit with their new OS. And, while that happens, Apple and Linux will extend their share of the market.

I think linux would share more of the market *if* the community, or the large players (cannonical, red hat, novel) would focus more in marketing.

Also large computer manufacturers are moving into Linux, Asus, Dell, Alienware (probably) and some software companies have seen a real market in Linux users, with Adobe supporting Linux platforms with Flash10 (check here (http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/flashplayer10/releasenotes.html#features_ocre))
and the boom of Open-Source software we've seen in the last years, I'd say Microsft's going down, 5-10 years, true. But it's going down, the industry it self, not necessarily Linux or Apple, will bring Microsft down.

Exactly. *We the community* play a very crucial role into making that happen.

MellonCollie
July 10th, 2008, 09:45 PM
Also, prove that Open-Source is the next step in software is Firefox. Which by now is the most used Browser in the world.

Again from http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp


Those stats are from visitors to w3schools.com only.

Darkade
July 10th, 2008, 09:51 PM
These facts indicate that the browser figures above are not 100% realistic. Other web sites have statistics showing that Internet Explorer is used by at least 80% of the users.

Anyway, our data, collected from W3Schools' log-files, over a five year period, clearly shows the long and medium-term trends.

However there's a trend ain't it? And yes, I'm sorry, counting IE6 and 7 as two browsers is missleading

"The pure and simple truth is rarely pure and never simple."
Oscar Wilde

aysiu
July 10th, 2008, 09:54 PM
Even if Linux were "overtaking" Microsoft, we don't have a definitive way of verifying that fact, so all this debate is useless.

Without agreed-upon assumptions, arguments will be endless.

That's why people can't agree whether Linux is "ready for the desktop" or not. The phrase ready for the desktop has no consensus as to its meaning.

MellonCollie
July 10th, 2008, 10:08 PM
However there's a trend ain't it?

It's a trend on a website for web developers, and web developers would be more likely to use standards-compliant browsers. I'd say the stats are slightly skewed.

MadsRH
July 10th, 2008, 10:15 PM
Okay, Vista was a mistake and has given some room in the spotlight for Linux.
But...
Microsoft has 89,809 employees in 105 countries, all hired to do what they do best. Their teams are very organized and being a company they have good cooperation between the teams.
They are doing some very exciting research witch we will see in the future. And of course as it already has been mentioned, MS has about 90% of the market.

I run Word 2007 on WINE and I can't live without the new ribbon!
Linux is getting more organized day by day, hopefully hardware vendors will support Linux better in the future - Great are happening! Looking forward to Ibex


just my 2 cent :)

YellerPuma
July 10th, 2008, 10:25 PM
Go Linux! I think MS will go down slowly.

Thirtysixway
July 10th, 2008, 10:30 PM
The title should be renamed "Linux Overtaking Windows?" because Microsoft is a corporation not an OS or kernel.

Linux is doing a great job, but I don't think it will ever completely replace microsoft products. Windows Live Messenger, Office, Xbox, iis/asp/asp.net, Internet Explorer, and Windows are huge successes.

Yes there are free alternatives that run on Linux, but how are you going to get people to move to Linux? To most users, the cost of Windows is never seen and it's billed with the dell computer they buy every couple of years. That's how windows remains such a dominant OS in the home. It's not like

Buy computer -> Buy OS -> Choose Browser

To the users it's more like

Buy computer

Which one seems easier, 1 step or 3 steps? Yes Linux is coming around and turning into one of those 1 step processes, but we have to also think about how much it would cost to rewrite something like photoshop or sony vegas for linux. I'm no business man, but I've learned businesses are pretty stingy when it comes to things like that.

There are people who have built their careers on learning to program .NET applications and manage windows. You would also have to replace this entire working category, which most likely won't happen.

Windows will continue to dominate, or at least have part of the OS market. And who knows, maybe Windows 7 or another microsoft product beyond Windows will actually be really good. :)

(okay my wall of text is done):popcorn:

karellen
July 10th, 2008, 10:38 PM
not soon. Linux market share is very very small (insignificant?!), around 0.8%-0.9% while Apple has 8% (not considering here Windows which has 90+%) so if the trend continues maybe Apple could become a threat to MS reign in the next 5-10 years, but Linux as a whole will have a very tough job in doing so (without proper support from OEM and major software developers)

aysiu
July 10th, 2008, 10:42 PM
Yes there are free alternatives that run on Linux, but how are you going to get people to move to Linux? Urge OEMs to sell Linux preinstalled and then buy those preinstalled models to show the OEMs that selling Linux preinstalled is profitable, thus urging them to sell even more linux preinstalled models.

keiichidono
July 10th, 2008, 11:42 PM
Urge OEMs to sell Linux preinstalled and then buy those preinstalled models to show the OEMs that selling Linux preinstalled is profitable, thus urging them to sell even more linux preinstalled models.
Walmart did something like that, but they crapped up big time and decided it wasn't profitable. If they had done a proper job we might see more popularity.

articpenguin
July 10th, 2008, 11:47 PM
The thing that will take Microsoft down is there Xbox systems and all the countrys that are fining them for there monopoly.

jnw222
July 11th, 2008, 01:07 AM
well if windows 7 is as horrible as vista i think microsoft might just fall back more that 20%

racie
July 11th, 2008, 01:42 AM
Don't get me wrong, I don't like this Bill Gates worshipping of a lot of people, but Linux will never overtake Microsoft. Think about it. Microsoft has about 90% of the computer population and Linux has about 1%. I know you guys really love Linux or whatever, but face it, it's never going to happen. Bill Gates is/used to be? the richest man in the world. It doesn't matter if Linux is free or not, people go for the big names. It's never gonna happen. Deal with it.

VitaLiNux
July 11th, 2008, 01:52 AM
Don't get me wrong, I don't like this Bill Gates worshipping of a lot of people, but Linux will never overtake Microsoft. Think about it. Microsoft has about 90% of the computer population and Linux has about 1%. I know you guys really love Linux or whatever, but face it, it's never going to happen. Bill Gates is/used to be? the richest man in the world. It doesn't matter if Linux is free or not, people go for the big names. It's never gonna happen. Deal with it.
Never is a very tough word in this case. So, how long is NEVER? I'd say 20 years from now, most of people will use some *nix child as their main computer OS. And I'm giving you a free ride!

bruce89
July 11th, 2008, 01:56 AM
Never is a very tough word in this case. So, how long is NEVER? I'd say 20 years from now, most of people will use some *nix child as their main computer OS. And I'm giving you a free ride!

I'm sure they thought the same when UNIX was invented 40 years ago.

racie
July 11th, 2008, 01:56 AM
I didn't mean that Microsoft will never, die out, but it certainly won't be soon. I just mean that Linux would never overtake it. If anything, Apple would.
*edit* please click the link in my sig. i am having major trouble and need help asap!

paul101
July 11th, 2008, 01:57 AM
hey, times change ;)

bruce89
July 11th, 2008, 01:59 AM
If anything, Apple would.

If anything a more worrying prospect.

paul101
July 11th, 2008, 02:02 AM
^^^ to own a mac i would have to be


a). stylish

b). Rollerblade, dance and listen to i-pod at same time (seems to be a thing in every apple advert)

c). i would have to talk using my hands

bruce89
July 11th, 2008, 02:06 AM
a). stylish

Don't worry, all Scots are naturally.

jeremy1138
July 11th, 2008, 02:20 AM
Linux is great! It has lots of great customizable features and many different distributions to suit many different people. The ideals behind open source software are really what makes all the difference. So much more can be done to make the software better and it allows for all the potential for customization that one could want. Windows, however, is still the giant when it comes to OSes. It is quite a change for the average home user to switch to Linux altogether so I think it will take some time before Linux has any chance of unseating Windows on a majority of home computers. It is my hope that Linux will eventually become a dominant operating system because it will make hardware and software vendors acknowledge Linux as such. This would allow for a much wider range of software made specifically for Linux. ...just my opinion.

mrgnash
July 11th, 2008, 02:24 AM
Not going to happen anytime soon, nor is it really an imperative.

VitaLiNux
July 11th, 2008, 02:48 AM
I'm sure they thought the same when UNIX was invented 40 years ago.

I don't think so. I need to point out that Unix was not meant to be used in desktops. That's the difference now with the BSDs, Linux and other *NIX derivatives.

Pinoy915
July 11th, 2008, 03:15 AM
Well, at least Linux is leading in the super computer area.

aysiu
July 11th, 2008, 03:53 AM
I don't see how Microsoft's current dominance means it'll never happen. There was a time when some other search engine (Yahoo!, Go, Infoseek... I forget which) was the dominant search engine, and then Google just came out of nowhere and took over.

racie
July 11th, 2008, 03:56 AM
I'm still sticking with my prediction.


Please help (see sig)!

toupeiro
July 11th, 2008, 03:59 AM
Careful what you wish for. :)

Nostrafus
July 11th, 2008, 10:33 AM
I'm gonna have to say no, not at the current rate.

Here's why (I may have to cut this short, I've got 15 minutes and this might be long)

The average computer user probably isn't aware of Linux, I've been a computer user for... I want to say 19 years now, and I've been (off and on) using Linux for 11 years. I had absolutely no idea of the existence of other operating systems (with the exception of Mac OS) before Linux, the same is probably true for most users.

The average computer user still goes to a retail store to buy their computer, and I have never seen a retail store that sells a computer with anything other than the latest OS from Microsoft. You usually have to go to a "computer shop" or an online distributor to find a desktop with a Linux distro already installed.

The average computer user is easily frightened about errors and glitches... so the words "Kernel Panic" probably wouldn't sit well with them... heh. Probably why Microsoft stopped using the term "Illegal Operation" in their error messages.

The average computer user is raised on Microsoft/Apple systems, maybe future generations exposed to Linux won't be, but at the moment, they are still the dominant market and have the most exposure.

Other problems with the OS... I will say beforehand I do love Linux, I love the idea of open source code, and a community based effort to provide a functional, secure, and working OS.

There are few cutting edge games for Linux, the native (and I stress native) games for Linux are lacking the graphical appeal of Windows based games, with DirectX still being the status quo for game design, and it being proprietary the companies releasing them just aren't interested in making them to function with OpenGL (even though it is the better of the two)

Aside from that, some people just don't care to use an emulator, I was at a local computer store picking up some hardware and two of the clerks were having a debate on linux, I didn't bother putting my two cents in because one of them did have a point... "I don't want to have to use an emulator, I just want it to plug it in, and it works" which quite a few games are glitchy at best using Wine/Cedega

Also some people just aren't aware of the alternative software... in graphic design the big name is Photoshop, which is PC, or Mac... you don't see a box on the shelf for Linux. GIMP while it performs just as well as Photoshop doesn't get the "press" that Photoshop does.

In animation, the same is true for 3dsMax, it's used by Pixar animation studios and is "The best" 3d modeling program, it has the most tutorials, the most books, the most plugins out of any 3d program... even though we've got Blender, and it's price tag is $0.00. If you don't know it's there, you'll never know to use it.

Anyway, gotta run... in summation the largest problem I see is what I like to call "Brand Name Marketing" why people call Markers "Sharpies" Copiers "Xerox machines" Acetaminophen "Tylenol" and Bandages "Band Aids"

Shippou
July 11th, 2008, 10:54 AM
I see this post is taking in many of this forums' members... :)

Well, I do hope that when that thing really happens, all the malware windows helped to breed won't go to Linux or Mac...

Because when it happens, the tables will be overturned, and people again will go to the Windows platform.

And the cycle starts again.

Cup of Squirrels
July 11th, 2008, 01:36 PM
It is unlikely that Linux will ever overtake Microsoft.

In fact, in terms of competition over desktop pcs, it won't even dent Microsoft's place.

VitaLiNux
July 11th, 2008, 04:36 PM
I'm gonna have to say no, not at the current rate.

Here's why (I may have to cut this short, I've got 15 minutes and this might be long)

The average computer user probably isn't aware of Linux, I've been a computer user for... I want to say 19 years now, and I've been (off and on) using Linux for 11 years. I had absolutely no idea of the existence of other operating systems (with the exception of Mac OS) before Linux, the same is probably true for most users.

The average computer user still goes to a retail store to buy their computer, and I have never seen a retail store that sells a computer with anything other than the latest OS from Microsoft. You usually have to go to a "computer shop" or an online distributor to find a desktop with a Linux distro already installed.

The average computer user is easily frightened about errors and glitches... so the words "Kernel Panic" probably wouldn't sit well with them... heh. Probably why Microsoft stopped using the term "Illegal Operation" in their error messages.

The average computer user is raised on Microsoft/Apple systems, maybe future generations exposed to Linux won't be, but at the moment, they are still the dominant market and have the most exposure.

Other problems with the OS... I will say beforehand I do love Linux, I love the idea of open source code, and a community based effort to provide a functional, secure, and working OS.

There are few cutting edge games for Linux, the native (and I stress native) games for Linux are lacking the graphical appeal of Windows based games, with DirectX still being the status quo for game design, and it being proprietary the companies releasing them just aren't interested in making them to function with OpenGL (even though it is the better of the two)

Aside from that, some people just don't care to use an emulator, I was at a local computer store picking up some hardware and two of the clerks were having a debate on linux, I didn't bother putting my two cents in because one of them did have a point... "I don't want to have to use an emulator, I just want it to plug it in, and it works" which quite a few games are glitchy at best using Wine/Cedega

Also some people just aren't aware of the alternative software... in graphic design the big name is Photoshop, which is PC, or Mac... you don't see a box on the shelf for Linux. GIMP while it performs just as well as Photoshop doesn't get the "press" that Photoshop does.

In animation, the same is true for 3dsMax, it's used by Pixar animation studios and is "The best" 3d modeling program, it has the most tutorials, the most books, the most plugins out of any 3d program... even though we've got Blender, and it's price tag is $0.00. If you don't know it's there, you'll never know to use it.

Anyway, gotta run... in summation the largest problem I see is what I like to call "Brand Name Marketing" why people call Markers "Sharpies" Copiers "Xerox machines" Acetaminophen "Tylenol" and Bandages "Band Aids"
Oh, yeah... Most of what you've said is true. But do you believe that's fair to compare the experience of two OSes that have been for more than 30 years on the OS stage(Microsoft & Apple) with one that came around a little bit more of half the same time and expect it to have the same or more market share!? I mean, M$ & Apple have been around for a long time, most of us have seen them for a big while, look around you. Linux has achieved big goals in less time than its counterparts. Linux has grown around an invaluable community that have produced good quality software FOR FREE and it has no signs of stopping anytime soon...

KingTermite
July 11th, 2008, 05:58 PM
why Do Some People View This Like It's Some Kind Of War Or Rebellion? Why Are Some People So Concerned With Linux Taking Over The Desktop Market?

It Boils Down To This:
1) It's Not Going To Happen
2) Who Cares? If It Works For You, Be Happy.

Exactly!

aysiu
July 11th, 2008, 06:02 PM
Linux itself is just a kernel, but many Linux distributions do have as their goal to displace Microsoft's dominance for desktop and laptop users, and Ubuntu is one of those distributions.

From Bug #1 on Launchpad (https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+bug/1):
Microsoft has a majority market share in the new desktop PC marketplace.
This is a bug, which Ubuntu is designed to fix.

Non-free software is holding back innovation in the IT industry, restricting access to IT to a small part of the world's population and limiting the ability of software developers to reach their full potential, globally. This bug is widely evident in the PC industry.

Steps to repeat:

1. Visit a local PC store.

What happens:
2. Observe that a majority of PCs for sale have non-free software pre-installed.
3. Observe very few PCs with Ubuntu and free software pre-installed.

What should happen:
1. A majority of the PCs for sale should include only free software like Ubuntu.
2. Ubuntu should be marketed in a way such that its amazing features and benefits would be apparent and known by all.
3. The system shall become more and more user friendly as time passes. It's not a war or a rebellion, of course. It is still a competition. Taking away Microsoft's dominance is still a goal... for Ubuntu at least.

FyreBrand
July 11th, 2008, 07:55 PM
Don't worry, all Scots are naturally.I have relatives who are Scots. Can I become stylish by association? :P

Ideally, for me at least, no platform will dominate. There will be viable choices based on need and use. Dominance generally means that an industry is focused on providing solutions for that platform while others suffer.

Nostrafus
July 11th, 2008, 08:15 PM
Oh, yeah... Most of what you've said is true. But do you believe that's fair to compare the experience of two OSes that have been for more than 30 years on the OS stage(Microsoft & Apple) with one that came around a little bit more of half the same time and expect it to have the same or more market share!? I mean, M$ & Apple have been around for a long time, most of us have seen them for a big while, look around you. Linux has achieved big goals in less time than its counterparts. Linux has grown around an invaluable community that have produced good quality software FOR FREE and it has no signs of stopping anytime soon...

Oh, I'm not denying that Linux has made great strides, I remember when I was first learning how to use it, there was precisely jack for a person to do with it outside of the IT industry, there were only a small handful of games to play, repositories were almost non-existent, GIMP wasn't around to toy with.

Now it has comparable software for just about anything that is available for a Microsoft/Mac OS, and for free... I was cut short, so I didn't have time to list everything... but the short and sweet is that at it's current progress no, I don't think it will.

However were something to change, this would not be the case, say for example all at once several distributions of Linux offered features and function Microsoft would spend the next five years putting into it's OS, yes, that would help move Linux a ton.

But at it the moment, I just don't see it. Very few schools teach programs like GIMP, OpenOffice, or Blender, which would be the three major players in my opinion for making it happen.

That and I'm not sure the community is there... I'm not saying the community isn't dedicated to the use of Linux, but I want to say a year back I tried to assemble a team with the astronomical goal of producing at least one GOOD native Linux game every year, with top of the line graphics, 0 bugs, and good replay value... and here's the type of thing I got... "Why bother", "Just port windows games", and "Do it yourself"... I would... but I don't know how make 3d models, I've tried with half a dozen programs and I just could never wrap my brain around it.

Personal grudges aside, I just feel as though until Linux has a few teams of cutting edge game designers who release native games for free in their spare time, Is available pre-installed on computers in most retail stores (at a slight discount over M$ as there is no OS cost) and industries consider the available software a viable alternative for programs like excel, publisher, word, 3dsmax, and photoshop, that it will remain a community based OS.


EDIT

Though as a side note, with the game industry moving away from PC's due to increased piracy, the piracy itself may help the Linux community to develop good free games, as gamers make up a large portion of computer users. You've got your IT professionals, Business owners, Graphic Designers, Students, Average users (the ones who use their comps to get on Myspace/Facebook/Youtube, and play solitare) and Gamers, if Linux can cater to most of these, it would do wonders. We've already got the IT field covered, the same goes for average users, and there are viable programs for graphic designers, students, and business owners (with the exception of tax software, I really don't see that one happening) the last one that needs to have it's heads turned is gamers.

Personally I still use a dual boot system, as I spent about $2,000 to build my rig into a gaming system, and the most graphics intense (native) games I've found don't drop below 400 fps, barely tapping my available resources. In all honesty, that portion of the community is still dependent on Windows as an OS for running games, as the games (graphics wise) are still about 10 years behind DX games, now you show me a game that looks as pretty as Mass Effect, has the replay value of Age of Empires, and is only available for Linux, then I'll bow out and say MS is toast, but until then, they control that area of the market, and it's a big chunk o' change.

aysiu
July 11th, 2008, 08:29 PM
It's going to be an uphill battle for sure.

Here's one possible way that it could happen, though, but the stars all have to be aligned properly.

2014 comes around (when Microsoft stops supporting XP), and Windows 7 has an even worse reputation than Vista. So, more than ever before, people (poor schools, non-profits, small businesses, home users) are looking for Windows alternatives. Apple stops making computers and focuses solely on iPods, iPhones, and other smaller gadgets. Internet applications become even more popular, so that virtually everything that most users do can be done with a web browser. Linux-based netbooks actually take off, proving to OEMs that Linux can make them money. Ubuntu, meanwhile, has proven itself (through hype and actual software improvements) to be the distro of choice for OEMs for home users. You can already see how Red Hat has given up on "the desktop," and Linspire has given up altogether. This could very well happen. So all this bull manure about "There are too many distros. Choice is confusing to new users" wouldn't be pooped any more, and any third party creating Linux ports would be sure to include a Ubuntu-compatible double-click-installable .deb file or repository. A major non-geek celebrity publicly endorses Ubuntu, while the Celtics keep winning while chanting Ubuntu. Meanwhile, all the usual slow strides keep happening (hardware vendors porting drivers or opening up specs, schools continually launching Linux-based pilot programs, governments moving over to Linux. Now, will that all happen? Who knows? Could that all happen? Sure. As I said before, all the stars have to be aligned.

It's very possible that a lot of that stuff won't happen, and Microsoft will stay in a dominant position.

I will say this, though, if all that stuff does happen, Microsoft will go down in flames. It has produced some good software, but most of the power of Microsoft lies in vendor lock-in and reliance on third-party support. If Linux gets even as high as 30% marketshare for home users, third-party support would be financially stupid not to support Linux, and if Linux gets third-party support, consumers would be stupid to keep using Windows.

Well, anything we say in this thread is just conjecture anyway.

A good book to read on this subject is Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point.

madjr
July 11th, 2008, 09:15 PM
2014 comes around (when Microsoft stops supporting XP), and Windows 7 has an even worse reputation than Vista. So, more than ever before, people (poor schools, non-profits, small businesses, home users) are looking for Windows alternatives.

nah, win 7 won't have worse rep than Vista. We only get this chance everytime they start breaking stuff.

in fact the only problem with ME was the amount of bugs and users were not prepared for a change. Then Win 2000 came fixing all that crap (changed to NT). But was more business oriented so it wasn't so appealing. In that case ms rebranded win 2000 as XP (with an user oriented feel and better look). They will re-brand Vista as win 7, so it will have better third party support from the start

But the more Windows launches appear the better, every launch of a Windows OS has been a good oportunity for people to try alternatives (linux and mac)

But if Ubuntu is not polished, poor documented, no on screen help, buggy, third party apps of low quality then they will hop back to windows.


Apple stops making computers and focuses solely on iPods, iPhones, and other smaller gadgets. Internet applications become even more popular, so that virtually everything that most users do can be done with a web browser.

huh? hehe sure...


Linux-based netbooks actually take off, proving to OEMs that Linux can make them money.

i can see that happening as little as end of this year (holiday season) and next year


Ubuntu, meanwhile, has proven itself (through hype and actual software improvements) to be the distro of choice for OEMs for home users. You can already see how Red Hat has given up on "the desktop," and Linspire has given up altogether. This could very well happen. So all this bull manure about "There are too many distros. Choice is confusing to new users" wouldn't be pooped any more, and any third party creating Linux ports would be sure to include a Ubuntu-compatible double-click-installable .deb file or repository.

Others might take their place. As linux gains popularity everyone will want a piece of it.

what we need are real standards for quality assurance and standard way to install apps between distros.

The real problem with different distros is that some offer low quality, fragmentation and bad experiences, thus users go right back to windows.

So in this case linux is actually shooting it self in the foot.




A major non-geek celebrity publicly endorses Ubuntu, while the Celtics keep winning while chanting Ubuntu.

could happen


Meanwhile, all the usual slow strides keep happening (hardware vendors porting drivers or opening up specs, schools continually launching Linux-based pilot programs, governments moving over to Linux.[/list] Now, will that all happen? Who knows? Could that all happen? Sure. As I said before, all the stars have to be aligned.

this already happening, but slowly. Some countries have done huge advancements. Specially Europe, latin America, SA, Taiwan.

the U.S government ? Extremely hard... msft will not give it up without blood baths.




I will say this, though, if all that stuff does happen, Microsoft will go down in flames. It has produced some good software, but most of the power of Microsoft lies in vendor lock-in and reliance on third-party support. If Linux gets even as high as 30% marketshare for home users, third-party support would be financially stupid not to support Linux, and if Linux gets third-party support, consumers would be stupid to keep using Windows.

nah, 10% is more than enough, heck 5% will get adobe to port photoshop and most apps






A good book to read on this subject is Malcolm Gladwell's The Tipping Point.

thanks

aysiu
July 11th, 2008, 09:22 PM
I should probably clarify that The Tipping Point is about general social or business phenomena and not anything specifically relating to Linux or Windows.

cardinals_fan
July 11th, 2008, 09:24 PM
in fact the only problem with ME was the amount of bugs and users were not prepared for a change.

There were some really bad bugs. I mean REALLY bad bugs.

madjr
July 11th, 2008, 09:31 PM
There were some really bad bugs. I mean REALLY bad bugs.

well an SP could had fixed that but they decided it was best to just focus on 2000 and then XP

the vista kernel and backend will be used at least for 7 to 10 years of releases (win 7 and probably win 8 will see improvements)

cardinals_fan
July 11th, 2008, 09:37 PM
well an SP could had fixed that but they decided it was best to just focus on 2000 and then XP

the vista kernel and backend will be used at least for 7 to 10 years of releases (win 7 and probably win 8 will see improvements)
MS's problem (and one that I sympathize with) is that they're terrified of breaking backward compatibility. Windows 7 needs a full rewrite, to clean up years of clogged code.

madjr
July 11th, 2008, 10:11 PM
MS's problem (and one that I sympathize with) is that they're terrified of breaking backward compatibility. Windows 7 needs a full rewrite, to clean up years of clogged code.

they seemed to be leaving it as is and will (maybe if people keep ranting) do so for win 8

LouEven
July 11th, 2008, 10:56 PM
One thing people always forget about, Corporate greed. Companies large or small, big or tall, generally speaking, will always go for the lowest cost highest profit every time. Windows is expensive, and the yearly rental cost is absurd. Windows in my mind, is very much like herpes, it's the gift that keeps on giving.

People are not aware that companies all over the world currently already have adopted a form of Linux to run front end and server applications. Simply because of the cost savings.

Windows is not the almighty. They no longer reign over the digital world. This last go they barked about patent infringement and you know what? Only the weak fell victim. Mainly Novel and Linspire.

Linus said, (paraphrasing here-->>) "Show us the infringed code, and we'll code around it.". And what happened?! NOTHING! Microsoft didn't have anything to say!! Fracktards!

I'm not saying Windows will be gone in a flash but they are dying. It's obvious, applications are failing, distributions are being passed over. Companies are refusing their fustian deals. Linux awareness and usage is growing. Look through these posts. Generally people say they keep windows for games, or for something non essential. This is not an isolated incident, it's starting to be a trend and soon a fact,and soon a memory.

The truth is out, windows sucks and it's a nightmare to manage. The operating cost is just as bad. The additional requirements are almost endless, Anti-virus, DVD playback, burning software, Office suites, firewall and updates and patches. I have not touched on the EULA. You are looking at an additional three hundred dollars a year on top of the purchase of the O.S. and Office suite. Yeah, you could run cracked or free-ware (Openoffice excluded), but that usually leaves the system left wide open or not protected properly.

Just an example, I had initialized my girlfriends brand new HP Desktop. New out of the box and with in a week of being on the network, it had a Trojan! She never even used the damn thing (because I had her using Ubuntu on her laptop).

Now the HP hums along just fine because of Ubuntu. It does everything she needs for work and for play. She's no tech and she loves it.
So, before all you Desktop market share parrots start squawking, "Err Windows has a 90% percent market share", I want to see some numbers on Linux users world wide. Because I read all the time Countries are using Linux in all aspects of government and education, some outright refuse to use Windows all together. What about the reports just recently posted in the news about the percentage of companies switching to open-source, I think it was 80% by 2010/11.That's right around the corner.

I would rather pay $40 to $50 bucks to download an ISO of Ubuntu for every release and $100 a year for updates and patches than pay for all that windows mess. And when I have extra money and I download or use a program I really like in Linux, I try and donate as much as possible.

In conclusion,

Is Linux overtaking Microsoft? Specifically the Desktop. I have to say with out a doubt the answers is a strong yes.---End of rant.