1,000,000 forum members?

[smoker]

with the new release only a couple of days away, i just wondered if the forum has any records on a percentage jump of new members recorded shortly after each release?

obviously, ubuntu, and its derivatives, are gaining new users all the time, but i would imagine after a new release, there would be more of a surge than normal.

would it be possible to predict, with a modicum of accuracy, eg, when member no: 600,000 will join? when there could possibly be 1,000,000 members? could the forums handle this increase?
:)

[Joeb454]

Well the 500,000th member joined a couple of months ago. And the forums opened in October 2004 (or thereabouts)

A little math tells me that'll be sometime in 2011 if figures stay the same ;)

[acelin]

Yeah but we all know that the popularity of Ubuntu is not a linear trend, it is exponential.

[days_of_ruin]

Well the 500,000th member joined a couple of months ago. And the forums opened in October 2004 (or thereabouts)

A little math tells me that'll be sometime in 2011 if figures stay the same ;)
But the figures have never been steady.

I am sure the site could handle it because it only matters how many
active members there are.

[Presto123]

I would say that it would reach that status a while down the road...I'm thinking, though, that with the current number and the LTS coming out...We could bump 50-70k. But...maybe I'm highballing THAT much.

[Joeb454]

I'm sure 1 day there'll be 1 million members.

Not sure when though ;)

[smoker]

some total speculation on my part!

with a 10 percent increase in members each release!

current 556500 + 10% = 612150 (hardy release)

6 months 612150 + 10% = 673265 (hardy +1)

12 months 673265 +10% = 740702 (hardy +2)

with a 15% increase in members each release!

current 556500 + 15% = 639975 (hardy release)

6 months 639975 + 15% = 735971 (hardy +1)

12 months 735971 + 15% = 846367 (hardy +2)

with a 20% increase in members each release!

current 556500 + 20% = 667800 (hardy release)

6 months 667800 + 20% = 801360 (hardy +1)

12 months 801360 + 20% = 961632 (hardy +2)

the figures are mine, so are probably wildly inaccurate, but there could be one million members in little over a year if the max works out!

it would be nice if the forum admin had access to accurate figures and would be prepared to maybe release some?

anyway, whatever, one thing is sure, the figures are always going to increase!
:lolflag:

[drascus]

I am not to sure about that. i would say that about 80% of people that I know that have switched to using Ubuntu do not have an account on the forums. So that means that a great deal of the users are probably not going to get an account with the forums necessarily. especially not just after first using it.

[T-Virus]

I must agree with drascus. I've been using Ubuntu for quite some time myself and just now tuned in the forums. It's awfully inaccurate :(

[smoker]

i was talking more about forum membership, rather than users of ubuntu, which, i believe mark shuttleworth estimates around eight million users!
:-)