Linux cracks 2% of the desktop Market

[pt123]

This is great news.

http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php?date=2008-02-29



w3counter.com — Linux went from 1.25% in May of 07 to 2.02% in march of 08. That is 61.6% increase in market share in 9 months.That is 82% annual growth in installed computers. I know this measure is unreliable, but it is something to cheer for

I saw it on digg, please go and digg it up.
http://digg.com/linux_unix/Linux_Cracks_2_of_the_market_according_to_W3Counte r

Hopefully it will reach the front page.

[D-EJ915]

how is 1600x1200 not even on the list...that is so fishy, lol

[ODF]

Same thing about my lcd ... 1920 X 1200 and the one I use for my Xbox360 and blueray ... 1360X768 '720p hdtv'

I mean a 24 inches LCD is almost the standard these days.

[pt123]

Why would people use 1600x 1200, anyone with a large monitor these days has widescreen

[mrgnash]

Why would people use 1600x 1200, anyone with a large monitor these days has widescreen

I use 1600x1200.

[D-EJ915]

Why would people use 1600x 1200, anyone with a large monitor these days has widescreen
it was the standard "high" resolution a few years ago for CRTs (and 2048x1536) along with 1280x1024 on LCDs

I guess just nobody uses CRTs anymore, also I had to laugh at 800x600 being so high up the list, I mean come on! 1024 width is standard minimum these days, I mean I have 2560 width, lol.

[phaed]

Linux didn't crack 2% of the desktop market. Linux constitutes 2% of the people who visit websites that use w3counter. But Firefox constitutes almost 23% of the browsers, when we know in reality it's more like 15% of the market. Obviously web sites that use w3counter are not representative of the market. Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites. That's all.

[aysiu]

Linux didn't crack 2% of the desktop market. Linux constitutes 2% of the people who visit websites that use w3counter. But Firefox constitutes almost 23% of the browsers, when we know in reality it's more like 15% of the market. Obviously web sites that use w3counter are not representative of the market. Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites. That's all.
I don't know where you're getting the 15% figure from.

In January, XiTi measured Firefox's market share as anywhere between as low as 21% in North America to as high as 45.4% in Finland (http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9060002).

[LaRoza]

Linux didn't crack 2% of the desktop market. Linux constitutes 2% of the people who visit websites that use w3counter. But Firefox constitutes almost 23% of the browsers, when we know in reality it's more like 15% of the market. Obviously web sites that use w3counter are not representative of the market. Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites. That's all.

Given the same sites being polled, and the relative Linux usage went up, it is pretty safe to say that Linux has gone up. The exact numbers are elusive, as usual.

There are three types of lies...

[perce]

I had to laugh at 800x600 being so high up the list, I mean come on!

I've seen some number of Windows computer running at the wrong resolution (i.e. 800x600) without their owners even realizing something were wrong :D

[madjr]

Obviously web sites that use w3counter are not representative of the market. Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites. That's all.

Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites.

are you serious... maybe you didn't had a good look at the numbers

1 Windows XP 79.12%
2 Windows Vista 6.48%
3 Mac OS X 4.95%
4 Windows 2000 3.29%
5 Linux 2.01%
6 Windows 98 1.05%

windows xp is the clear leader here...

didn't you mean this instead: "who are more likely to use Linux (corrected: Windows) and Firefox (corrected: IE6)"


"report was generated 02/29/2008 based on the last 20,873,774 unique visits to 8,082 websites"

i think almost 21 million unique visits to 8,082 sites is actually not a bad indicator.

or maybe you agree with "marketshare" that linux only has 0.60 or something like that and even less market than win98 (who the hell still uses win 98.. :/ )? ..

[3rdalbum]

As for the resolutions: Remember, all Linux users who complain about the font rendering are running at the wrong resolution for their LCD monitors.

[smoker]

as for a 'true exact' figure, it may be argued about, but it certainly can't be denied that linux use is on the increase year on year.

can't wait to break the 5% barrier,
:lolflag:

[billgoldberg]

as for a 'true exact' figure, it may be argued about, but it certainly can't be denied that linux use is on the increase year on year.

can't wait to break the 5% barrier,
:lolflag:

You'll be waiting a long time.

Macintosh has been harassing everyone with their commercials and other marketing stuff and they don't even have 5 %.

About the 800*600 resolution, my sister runs her xp computer on that resolution. I've set it to 1280*1024 and she didn't liked it. I had to change it back to 800*600, which is according to me unusable.

[articpenguin]

we can all thank vista for this:)

[forrestcupp]

i think almost 21 million unique visits to 8,082 sites is actually not a bad indicator.
Exactly. These statistics aren't just based on who visits the w3counter.com web site. They are taken from many different types of web sites that all kinds of people visit.

[EdThaSlayer]

You know, you shouldn't forget all the people who do not even have an internet connection yet run a fake copy of Windows XP. Also, most Linux users have internet readily available to them...Those two factors could affect/increase the margin of error this amazing "2%" Linux has of the desktop market.

[forrestcupp]

Well, it's not necessarily the 2% that's amazing. It's the fact that it has increased from what it was not long ago that is the point here.

[meborc]

Well, it's not necessarily the 2% that's amazing. It's the fact that it has increased from what it was not long ago that is the point here.

good point... statistics are not reliable... but if many "measurements" are taken with the same flaw, same assumptions... you just need to compare them to each other... the number is not exact, but we could see a tendency... and 8000 webpages and 21mil visitors are good numbers

[Mr. Picklesworth]

I've seen some number of Windows computer running at the wrong resolution (i.e. 800x600) without their owners even realizing something were wrong :D

The really scary thing is the number of people buying really nice LCD monitors then going at low resolution intentionally. Oddly enough, Windows doesn't let people change their application fonts, so low resolution is the only obvious way to make one's text "bigger". (Neither does Mac, for that matter, even though its UI toolkit seems to have a layout engine).

I definitely believe that Linux has grown significantly in market share. At the computer store where I work, I have found myself recently helping piles of customers with Linux / free software questions, many of whom are new to the idea. (My manager would kill me, so I had best not go on :P). They even seem quite excited about the idea...
This means three things:
-Ubuntu is truly appealing to people who are not power users (err, "regular ex-Windows users")
-Quiet word-of-mouth marketting works
-Software retail is doomed

...Thanks, Microsoft! I think I speak for everyone when I say: Vista was your nicest, kindest, gentlest Windows ever. It's great to see a market leader magnifying its wrongs to accellerate change ;)

[Mazza558]

The figure actually varies between this figure and 0.69%...

[st0n3cutt3r]

This is great news if it's true, but at the same time, I'm a little skeptical about the source...


This report was generated 02/29/2008 based on the last 20,873,774 unique visits to 8,094 websites. The last 25,000 page views to each website are analyzed to identify unique visits. Some visits may occur before the month of the report. Search engine market share is computed as percentage of search-referred traffic to analyzed sites. Live Search includes MSN searches. Partner sites are not included in these shares.

Where's Japan on the countries list? Honestly, I know little about China other than that they have I believe 1.3billion+ people. The US has something like 300million? How is it that almost 30% of the internet users are from the US, while only 3% are from China? Seems like a population 4x larger should have something more than 1/10th the number of people on the internet...

[forrestcupp]

The really scary thing is the number of people buying really nice LCD monitors then going at low resolution intentionally. Oddly enough, Windows doesn't let people change their application fonts, so low resolution is the only obvious way to make one's text "bigger". (Neither does Mac, for that matter, even though its UI toolkit seems to have a layout engine).


Actually, in XP you can change the system font fairly easily by adding a line to win.ini. In Vista, they made it very easy to do with the GUI. And even if you don't change the actual font in XP, it's easy in the advanced desktop settings to customize the size of the desktop icons and fonts even with a high resolution.

These people just don't know what they're doing at all.

[Shakey_Jake33]

My resolution (1360x768 ) doesn't even make the list :(

[meborc]

This is great news if it's true, but at the same time, I'm a little skeptical about the source...



Where's Japan on the countries list? Honestly, I know little about China other than that they have I believe 1.3billion+ people. The US has something like 300million? How is it that almost 30% of the internet users are from the US, while only 3% are from China? Seems like a population 4x larger should have something more than 1/10th the number of people on the internet...

well... you are forgetting that they monitor only 8000 websites... the % of countries are based on that NOT on all internet activity

i would guess if you chose 8000 Japanese webpages, you would get a different results

[madjr]

well... you are forgetting that they monitor only 8000 websites... the % of countries are based on that NOT on all internet activity

i would guess if you chose 8000 Japanese webpages, you would get a different results

exactly, these sites are mostly written in english and targeted mainly to USA visitors.


1 United States 28.92%

wow i didn't notice win me was in 8th position lol

8 Windows ME 0.38%

[BrokeBody]

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8

[Luffield]

Linux didn't crack 2% of the desktop market. Linux constitutes 2% of the people who visit websites that use w3counter. But Firefox constitutes almost 23% of the browsers, when we know in reality it's more like 15% of the market. Obviously web sites that use w3counter are not representative of the market. Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites. That's all.
Well, this page (http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustom=Linux) seems to support your opinion. Go figure if it's more accurate, though.

[aysiu]

Well, this page (http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=9&qpcustom=Linux) seems to support your opinion. Go figure if it's more accurate, though.

We use a unique methodology for collecting this data. We collect data from the browsers of site visitors to our exclusive on-demand network of live stats customers. The data is compiled from approximately 160 million visitors per month. The information published is an aggregate of the data from this network of hosted website statistics. The site unique visitor and referral information is summarized on a monthly basis. They don't really say how many sites they analyze or what kinds of sites those are.

Frankly, considering how many Linux users mask their identities and/or are forced to use Mac or Windows at work (and, yes, people do use the internet browsers at work!), I don't think we can ever get an accurate measure of the exact market share of desktop Linux.

The point, as another forum member pointed out earlier in the thread, is that the percentage is higher than it was before.

[tehkain]

Considering GNU/Linux is taking the browser capable cell phone market by storm these stats will not mean much in a few years. I say this because nokia and other linux based phones dont report 'linux' in their user string.

For example this is a linux device:
Mozilla/4.0 (PDA; SL-C750/1.0,Embedix/Qtopia/1.3.0) NetFront/3.0 Zaurus C750

For now tho these are interesting

[phaed]

Computer savvy people, who are more likely to use Linux and Firefox, are a disproportionately large segment of the people who visit those sites.

are you serious... maybe you didn't had a good look at the numbers

1 Windows XP 79.12%
2 Windows Vista 6.48%
3 Mac OS X 4.95%
4 Windows 2000 3.29%
5 Linux 2.01%
6 Windows 98 1.05%

windows xp is the clear leader here...

didn't you mean this instead: "who are more likely to use Linux (corrected: Windows) and Firefox (corrected: IE6)"

Not at all. I said that that computer savvy people were a disproportionately large number of the visitors to those sites. I didn't say that they constituted all the visitors.

Let's say there are two groups of internet users: tech-stupid people and tech-savvy people. Tech-stupid people constitute 95% of the population, tech-savvy people 5%.

Among tech-stupid people, 99% use Windows, 1% use Linux (let's leave OS X out to simplify the example).
Among tech-savvy people, 70% use Windows, 30% use Linux.

Then, in the overall population:

Percent of people who use Windows = (.95)(.99) + (.05)(.70) = 97.55%
Percent of people who use Linux = (.95)(.01) + (.05)(.30) = 2.45%

Now let's say you have a web site that has a disproportionately large number of tech-savvy visitors, so it has 60% tech-stupid people, and 40% tech-savvy people.

For that web site:

Percent of people who use Windows = (.60)(.99) + (.40)(.70) = 87.4%
Percent of people who use Linux = (.60)(.01) + (.40)(.30) = 12.6%

So you see, even if tech-savvy people are disproportionately large, Windows can still have a huge representation.

This is what I believe is happening among sites that report their statistics through w3counter, except it's not as skewed as my example. In reality it's only skewing the statistics from around 0.8% to 2.01%, but that still means those sites are not representative of the broader market.

[Ozor Mox]

"report was generated 02/29/2008 based on the last 20,873,774 unique visits to 8,082 websites"

Surely not every one of those 8082 sites are for tech enthusiasts?

[Mazza558]

http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=8

Poor NetBSD, limping along with 0.00% marketshare :lolflag:

[forrestcupp]

well... you are forgetting that they monitor only 8000 websites... the % of countries are based on that NOT on all internet activity

i would guess if you chose 8000 Japanese webpages, you would get a different results


exactly, these sites are mostly written in english and targeted mainly to USA visitors.


Wow. Do you guys really know what all 8000 of those web sites are, and where they are located? You must have a lot of time on your hands to research 8000 web sites just to prove a point.

[madjr]

Wow. Do you guys really know what all 8000 of those web sites are, and where they are located? You must have a lot of time on your hands to research 8000 web sites just to prove a point.

huh?

but it says so in the statistics, it didn't took me more than a minute to figure that out.

look for yourself:
http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php?date=2008-02-29

Countries
1 United States 28.92%
2 Germany 8.22%
3 United Kingdom 4.82%
4 Canada 3.17%

this clearly indicates they are written in english and targeted "mostly" to USA visitors (28% out of 21 million visits is a big number IMHO).

but i said "most" not "all"...

[madjr]

Not at all. I said that that computer savvy people were a disproportionately large number of the visitors to those sites. I didn't say that they constituted all the visitors.

Let's say there are two groups of internet users: tech-stupid people and tech-savvy people. Tech-stupid people constitute 95% of the population, tech-savvy people 5%.

Among tech-stupid people, 99% use Windows, 1% use Linux (let's leave OS X out to simplify the example).
Among tech-savvy people, 70% use Windows, 30% use Linux.

Then, in the overall population:

Percent of people who use Windows = (.95)(.99) + (.05)(.70) = 97.55%
Percent of people who use Linux = (.95)(.01) + (.05)(.30) = 2.45%

Now let's say you have a web site that has a disproportionately large number of tech-savvy visitors, so it has 60% tech-stupid people, and 40% tech-savvy people.

For that web site:

Percent of people who use Windows = (.60)(.99) + (.40)(.70) = 87.4%
Percent of people who use Linux = (.60)(.01) + (.40)(.30) = 12.6%

So you see, even if tech-savvy people are disproportionately large, Windows can still have a huge representation.

This is what I believe is happening among sites that report their statistics through w3counter, except it's not as skewed as my example. In reality it's only skewing the statistics from around 0.8% to 2.01%, but that still means those sites are not representative of the broader market.

ok, in plain english now ?? :confused:

tech savvy?
i don't think ubuntuforums uses w3counter, if it would you might see an increased of over 1% (3% in total) :D

ok time to tell Mark to change to w3counter !

[BrokeBody]

Linux desktop market share is up as much as 61 percent, study finds (http://www.cnet.com/8301-13505_1-9910263-16.html)

[jrusso2]

I still remember the Linux over takes Mac on the desktop back in 2003 and the IDC prediction of Linux being 6% of the desktop by 2007

http://www.macnn.com/articles/04/08/04/linux.overtakes.mac.os/

[Dr. C]

The W3Counter stats http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php should not be confused with W3Schools stats http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

W3Schools because of the nature of the website has a visitor demographic that is wighted towards "computer savvy people" This can be seen not only for a much higher preferance for GNU / Linux but also in the choice of the version of Microsoft Windows: Lower adoption rate for Windows Vista, a strong preference for the "professional" Windows 2000 and even Windows NT over the "consumer" Windows 98 and Windows ME. In fact the disdain for Windows ME on W3Schools is so high that even Windows 95 beats Windows ME! There is also a strong preference to using Windows Server as a workstation OS etc.

There is also a strong preference for Firefox in W3Schools http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

One thing is clear no matter what site statistics one looks at, it appears that FLOSS is waging what looks like a very slow war of attrition against propriety software, Microsoft may end up facing a slow agonizing death over the next 25 years rather than a swift painless death at the hands of GNU / Linux. Steve Balmer's "cancer" analogy is actually not that far off, but for a very slow growing cancer that takes say 30 years to develop.

[madjr]

I still remember the Linux over takes Mac on the desktop back in 2003 and the IDC prediction of Linux being 6% of the desktop by 2007

http://www.macnn.com/articles/04/08/04/linux.overtakes.mac.os/

up to 6% (or more), could had tried linux already, but not everyone gets it to work on their hardware setup.

linux growth in akward and not very predictable.

also most linux users are dual-booters...

it's a great advancement, but not a total replacement for a lot of people (yet)

in a few years i know this will be different

[madjr]

The W3Counter stats http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php should not be confused with W3Schools stats http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

W3Schools because of the nature of the website has a visitor demographic that is wighted towards "computer savvy people" This can be seen not only for a much higher preferance for GNU / Linux but also in the choice of the version of Microsoft Windows: Lower adoption rate for Windows Vista, a strong preference for the "professional" Windows 2000 and even Windows NT over the "consumer" Windows 98 and Windows ME. In fact the disdain for Windows ME on W3Schools is so high that even Windows 95 beats Windows ME! There is also a strong preference to using Windows Server as a workstation OS etc.

There is also a strong preference for Firefox in W3Schools http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

One thing is clear no matter what site statistics one looks at, it appears that FLOSS is waging what looks like a very slow war of attrition against propriety software, Microsoft may end up facing a slow agonizing death over the next 25 years rather than a swift painless death at the hands of GNU / Linux. Steve Balmer's "cancer" analogy is actually not that far off, but for a very slow growing cancer that takes say 30 years to develop.

next 25 years ?

you must be insane.

You mean we'll need to wait for Ubuntu 33.04 LTS ?

we will live in a matrix like world by then inside the linux kernel... :) :)

i think you're exaggerating, every NEW windows version will sell less than it's last version.

Windows 7 will be less successful than Vista because of the incredible competition from Linux and Mac. Windows 8 will have it even worse.

remember that windows grew in a competition FREE world.

Windows will be set to the side just like in the server and mobile markets. With the huge piracy and competion there's little money from them in the desktop market and they're beginning to realize that.

Unless they sell their own hardware like apple, they will keep losing money. If apple only sold their OS without hardware it would had gone bankrupt already.

FOSS will be the norm, but proprietary will never die.

Our gaol has never been to "kill" proprietary, just split the market and fight off monopolies

[lancest]

I don't believe we will be waiting even 10 years for Linux to become a major desktop player. Read the news? Among other things the hot mini Linux style laptop market (ASUS Eee Pc) just got 14 new pc makers! Intel and Ubuntu mobile have a real chance in my view. There are different segments and the consumer PC segment is going to have alot of Linux with these Ultra portables. Once they get the software combination right (i think ASUS Xandros wasn't the best choice) people will start to trust Linux instead of the XP 2002. I think with the quality Ubuntu is showing it will be very hard to ignore in the future. Once Linux hits 5-6% it will be considered some kind of contender. Remember software is political and there are many unreliable information sources. For me I prefer the battle hardened OS that runs most of the internet!

[forrestcupp]

Countries
1 United States 28.92%
2 Germany 8.22%
3 United Kingdom 4.82%
4 Canada 3.17%

this clearly indicates they are written in english and targeted "mostly" to USA visitors (28% out of 21 million visits is a big number IMHO).
I guess you could say I got owned.



Windows 7 will be less successful than Vista because of the incredible competition from Linux and Mac. Windows 8 will have it even worse.
The only difference this time is that if they can, a lot of people are going to skip Vista and go straight to 7 from XP. So it is possible for 7 to sell more than Vista. Also, the only reason Vista has outdone XP is because more of the population has at least one computer these days and Vista comes on most of them. I'm sure that will be true when 7 comes out, too.

[madjr]

I guess you could say I got owned.



huh, no one is here to own anyone (unless you sell yourself on ebay :))





Originally Posted by madjr
Windows 7 will be less successful than Vista because of the incredible competition from Linux and Mac. Windows 8 will have it even worse.
The only difference this time is that if they can, a lot of people are going to skip Vista and go straight to 7 from XP. So it is possible for 7 to sell more than Vista. Also, the only reason Vista has outdone XP is because more of the population has at least one computer these days and Vista comes on most of them. I'm sure that will be true when 7 comes out, too.

yea, this very true.

many win xp users will jump to windows 7.

but a lot of them will also jump to mac and ubuntu.

windows 7 coming out will be a big migration period to all 3 mayor OSs.

i guess in every new "windows" release Linux benefits :) :)

it's like console wars, you don't know who will dominate with each new upgrade.

each new microsoft release is so BIG that they even get people excited to jump to the competition!

thank you MSFT! :lolflag:

[macogw]

The really scary thing is the number of people buying really nice LCD monitors then going at low resolution intentionally. Oddly enough, Windows doesn't let people change their application fonts, so low resolution is the only obvious way to make one's text "bigger". (Neither does Mac, for that matter, even though its UI toolkit seems to have a layout engine).

It's not even just the font size though, icons can be just too darned small. Over 1280x800 is just plain ergh on a 15" wide screen or 1280x1024 on 15" standard.