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View Full Version : The Great Big (Unofficial) Ubuntu Predictions Thread! (2008)



Mazza558
November 18th, 2007, 01:20 PM
The idea of this thread is to make a prediction about where Ubuntu will be in a year's time. For example:

"Several more manufacturers will offer Ubuntu preinstalled"

or

"There'll be 750,000 users on these forums"

You can be as safe or risky as you want, so you can play safe and predict that we'll be on Ubuntu 8.10 by then, or you can go of the risky side, e.g 1 million users by this time next year.

Hopefully, the thread will be locked at around the new year, giving everyone about a month and a half to place their predictions. Finally, a new thread will be started on November 18th, 2008, where the old thread will be linked to, and we can see how everyone's done.

You can have as many predictions as you want, but the deadline is around the new year.

Okay, my predictions:

* There'll be more than 750,000 users on these forums

* One or two more manufacturers will offer Ubuntu preinstalled

* The FOSS video drivers for ATi and Nvidia will be complete, and enabled for 8.10

* Compiz Fusion will be renamed and will be past the 1.0 release

* KDE4 will be default on Kubuntu 8.10

and, here's a potentially risky one:

* Digg will have an Ubuntu section added.

adam.tropics
November 18th, 2007, 02:04 PM
Oh well if we're being brave...

The Ubuntu/Linux inspired 'high end free software only laptop (http://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/131)' will be in actual real life production.

corney91
November 18th, 2007, 02:28 PM
Being very, very optimistic:
Bug 1 (https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+bug/1) will be fixed :)

Realistically, though, it should generally be more accepted by users and manufacturers, while gettng much stabler. Unfortunately I can't predict any figures on this.

ruibernardo
November 18th, 2007, 03:02 PM
Bill Gates will recognise that he earn his fortune selling bad operating systems and software to the world.

He will create a foundation to help the development of Linux to compensate the world of 25 years of monopoly, bad antitrust abuse, and for the millions of hour/man lost by the mankind in trying to make his products work without virus and malaware.

:lolflag:

ruibernardo
November 18th, 2007, 03:08 PM
Serious now: Ubuntu 8.04 will be great, stable, without too many bugs and will give Ubuntu another great jump.

*grin*
November 18th, 2007, 03:32 PM
A new breed of cows with sweet-smelling manure will be harnessed to provide fuel for an audacious, maiden breed of (aesthetically pleasing) green 'intelligent' cars. The OS? Ubuntu of course!

You DID say it could be ambitious.

Tundro Walker
November 18th, 2007, 08:24 PM
In a year?! Good Lord man, I'm only good at 25 & 50 year predictions! Cut me some slack!

Seriously, in a year's time, I predict...

Wireless will be fairly painless to get up and running in Ubuntu (and Linux in general)
Some other distros will probably roll under the Ubuntu umbrella, as folks (like the Gentoo crowd), realize Ubuntu's a pretty good/stable distro that they can springboard their own specific distro from
tar.gz'ed .deb or .rpm install files will finally be the mainstream way to distribute software for most Linux programs, instead of just tossing up the source code and asking folks to compile it on their own. (I make this prediction based on Ubuntu helping introduce more and more non-techy users to Linux, thus a more non-techy way to distribute software will help get more non-techy users to try it...a paradoxical "chicken and egg" problem.)
The Ubuntu install / upgrade will be more robust, by not re-installing things you got rid of, and asking intelligent questions, like "do you want to use Compiz, or not?", and will install / won't install based on the feedback.
This is going out on a limb, but I think the cross-over between Windows and Ubuntu/Linux will be narrowed to such a point that folks who fear moving to Ubuntu / Linux because they think they won't have any easy way to get back to Windows will no longer have anything to fear. This includes cross-platform work, like Office docs and such. While a lot of folks have tried using Java and such to make OS-related cross-platform compatible apps, I think Google and others using web-apps will help bridge this gap better. More folks will ditch MS Office for personal use when they can use something like Google Office for home/personal use, which can get accessed from any computer with an internet connection. Thus, it won't really matter which OS you're using then. More and more gamers will move to the PS3, Xbox, etc, and that will whittle down the Windows "I use it for gaming" market share. So, with office-oriented stuff online, and games played on consoles, more and more folks will have a hard time justifying lots of money to keep messing with Windows. Of course, cheap Linux pc's at wal-mart and such under-cutting the cost of Windows PC's will be a big help, too...that's basically how MS got dominance over Apple...under-cut the competition. LOL!
In a year, I think we'll see about 5 more major game developers start cranking out their games for Linux market-share in addition to Windows. These will be big names that will have a major influence on the market, showing that Linux is a viable market for software sales.
More hardware manufacturers will make Linux-compatible hardware, and include Linux-compatible drivers. This will quell the folks who complain that "Linux suxorz because it can't use my <hardware>" No, the hardware manufacturer "suxorz" because they didn't give you a Linux driver for it.
Windows and Linux fan-boys will suddenly realize how pointless and annoying their arguments are, and quiet down so they can spend all that time doing something more productive, like planting a tree, reading a book, taking out the trash, or walking their dog. (Hey, you said the predictions could be ambitious..!)

-grubby
November 18th, 2007, 08:29 PM
* The FOSS video drivers for ATi and Nvidia will be complete, and enabled for 8.10


I sincerly hope so

toupeiro
November 18th, 2007, 08:34 PM
In 2008, I predict that at least 2 major software developers and distributors will write native linux (.deb for ubuntu) versions of at least one of their popular applications which previously only existed for Microsoft Windows.

I predict that Ubuntu's offerings from Dell will continue to spread across more models, including their high end gaming lines.

LaRoza
November 18th, 2007, 08:35 PM
Prediction One:

* No matter how great Linux becomes, there will still be those who can't leave their comfort zone, and blame Linux for "being too hard"

* Linux will outstrip WIndows in almost everyway, but its popularity will not correlate to its superiority

* Trolls will still roam the forum

* People will still bicker over KDE v. GNOME

* Mac users will still use Macs, Linux users will still use Linux, and Windows users will slowly trickle into both categories.

kevdog
November 18th, 2007, 09:11 PM
Only prediction for 2008

1. Wireless for the Hardy Heron release will still be the same old pain in the butt!! Im basing this on the fact that I dont think Ubuntu has really any control on the development of the open source wireless drivers. Broadcom and Ra based chipsets (the two most problematic chipsets according to my unofficial poll) will still continue to be problematic.

Is there another release planned past Hardy in 2008?? If so what is the code name -- Icy Igloo?

-grubby
November 18th, 2007, 09:15 PM
Only prediction for 2008

1. Wireless for the Hardy Heron release will still be the same old pain in the butt!! Im basing this on the fact that I dont think Ubuntu has really any control on the development of the open source wireless drivers. Broadcom and Ra based chipsets (the two most problematic chipsets according to my unofficial poll) will still continue to be problematic.

Is there another release planned past Hardy in 2008?? If so what is the code name -- Icy Igloo?

btw, it's animals and an igloo isn't an animal

kevdog
November 18th, 2007, 09:27 PM
Ok sorry I must of been thinking of a frozen animal -- how about

Icy ...

Iguana, Impala, Ibex, Ibis, Ignoramus

-grubby
November 18th, 2007, 09:34 PM
Ok sorry I must of been thinking of a frozen animal -- how about

Icy ...

Iguana, Impala, Ibex, Ibis, Ignoramus

icy impala?

kevdog
November 18th, 2007, 09:39 PM
If you dont like icy then perhaps:

interesting
innovative
ingenious
ignorant
indecisive
incomprehensible
industrial
inattentive
inadequate
indiscreet
inept
illustrious

khurrum1990
November 18th, 2007, 10:22 PM
I hope Ubuntu will finish of all standby and hibernation problems.

corney91
November 18th, 2007, 10:22 PM
Irate?

This thread has gone way off-topic...:)

Ooht
November 18th, 2007, 11:12 PM
#1 Prediction? Tons of people will upgrade to Hardy the day it's released and then complain about how buggy and unstable it is compared to Gutsy. The forums will be clogged with "Hardy sucks! I'm going back to Gutsy/changing distros/buying a Mac!" threads.

A more optimistic prediction is that Kubuntu and Xubuntu will get a little bit more spit and polish with this release and start to feel as professional as their older sibling (well, mostly Kubuntu -I think Xubuntu is doing fairly well as it is).

Even more optimistic: maybe the second release of '08 (Ignoble Icthiosaur?) will come with a way to legally purchase linDVD. It'd be really nice to be able to watch DVDs I purchase/rent and not feel like a criminal.

happysmileman
November 19th, 2007, 01:32 AM
Market share will increase a lot (it's gone from 0.39% to 0.81% in a year according to study a month or two ago so maybe 1.5%-2% will be feasible?) but still won't be supported by much software companies, especially games companies.

Dell will expand the line of Linux machines, but still won't advertise them much.

Other shops will start to sell Linux machines, probably just as cheap low-end machines (like Tesco and Walmart started doing) as well as servers.

NVidia and ATI OSS drivers will be out, but with some bugs and performance issues.

Microsoft will get even more scared and start throwing around much more patent and lawsuit issues, but some companies will stand up to them rather than give in to even stu[pider threats in future (most will still just fold and pay up though :().



And hopefully there'll be a unified packaging system used by all distros, but I think this is more like a 10-year prediction, not a 1-year one, I'd love a package manager that worked with all distros, gave choice between source and binary (default could be chosen of course, most likely set by distro).

TBOL3
November 19th, 2007, 03:09 AM
Monkey Man will get a brain, and find a valid way to shutdown all major Linux distributions. :lolflag:

Well, ok, I dought that, but I do think there will be another distro that will soon outshine ubuntu, either that, or ubuntu will continue to get better, fast.

smartboyathome
November 19th, 2007, 03:11 AM
I think we will be in bug country this time next year (if everything goes like it did with Dapper and Edgy, that is ;)).

Lostincyberspace
November 19th, 2007, 03:19 AM
Starcraft 2 will be supported natively on linux, since it will be developed in openGL. :lol:

Mazza558
December 28th, 2008, 02:10 AM
Well, I know it's a month or so late, but let's see who was right. Everything bolded turned out to be true:

My predictions were:

* There'll be more than 750,000 users on these forums
* One or two more manufacturers will offer Ubuntu preinstalled
* The FOSS video drivers for ATi and Nvidia will be complete, and enabled for 8.10
* Compiz Fusion will be renamed and will be past the 1.0 release
* KDE4 will be default on Kubuntu 8.10
* Digg will have an Ubuntu section added.

Hmm, we got close in terms of the number of members - currently standing at 730,000. Other than that, I'm quite pleased with myself.


Serious now: Ubuntu 8.04 will be great, stable, without too many bugs and will give Ubuntu another great jump.

More or less true. Not sure about the "great jump" bit.


tar.gz'ed .deb or .rpm install files will finally be the mainstream way to distribute software for most Linux programs, instead of just tossing up the source code and asking folks to compile it on their own. (I make this prediction based on Ubuntu helping introduce more and more non-techy users to Linux, thus a more non-techy way to distribute software will help get more non-techy users to try it...a paradoxical "chicken and egg" problem.)

This is becoming true, especially with deb files.


In 2008, I predict that at least 2 major software developers and distributors will write native linux (.deb for ubuntu) versions of at least one of their popular applications which previously only existed for Microsoft Windows.

Turned out to be true in part - at least Adobe have done this.


#1 Prediction? Tons of people will upgrade to Hardy the day it's released and then complain about how buggy and unstable it is compared to Gutsy. The forums will be clogged with "Hardy sucks! I'm going back to Gutsy/changing distros/buying a Mac!" threads.

The truest of them all.

klange
December 28th, 2008, 02:17 AM
You were also close with the C-F prediction: Compiz++ has been announced as a likely future for Compiz, though I don't know where our versioning will start.

Mazza558
December 28th, 2008, 02:20 AM
You were also close with the C-F prediction: Compiz++ has been announced as a likely future for Compiz, though I don't know where our versioning will start.

Isn't that more like a branch-off from the original CF than a rename?

phrostbyte
December 28th, 2008, 02:59 AM
In a year?! Good Lord man, I'm only good at 25 & 50 year predictions! Cut me some slack!

Seriously, in a year's time, I predict...

Wireless will be fairly painless to get up and running in Ubuntu (and Linux in general)

I think this one actually came true. I got some feeling that 8.10 pretty much solved all major wifi problems, with 2.6.28 filling in the rest of the gap. Maybe that's me personally though. But holy crap this year was year of the wifi drivers for me. :)

kevdog
December 28th, 2008, 04:35 AM
Before you go ragging on people who complained about how unstable Hardy would be -- we have definitely moved past Hardy, and into Intrepid and now seeing alphas of Jaunty. Gutsy, in fact Feisty, was still more stable for me than either Hardy or Intrepid. I hate to beat a dead drum, however that is my experience. I'm not saying things have not improved with each release, however progress has come with a cost. Forget Compiz and just concentrate on stability and driver support. Once these issues are nearly solved, then through in the eye-candy.