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View Full Version : Why, I think, Ubuntu will win (over M$)



tyggna1
November 13th, 2007, 08:52 PM
I was in my bed one night, unable to fall asleep--when it finally hit me. Microsoft will eventually decline in importance and market presence unless they make a crucial change in their business model.

Here's why: Microsoft became what it is to day by competing as an innovator. Whether it was innovative or not--they came up with new ideas (even if not always original) and implemented them. From Windows 3.1 to XP, that was the case. In some areas, sure, they were just following Apple, or something made in Linux, but they also had some innovative and new ideas to implement.

Microsoft no longer competes in that specific market. They are concerned, fincancially, about Google Documents competing with their office suite. Google, I would say, is more of a developer--taking an exsisting idea (web searching, for example), and doing it better. Microsoft, also, is in the video game market--which is also entirely dependant on game developers.

Developers are important, but it's a fundamentally different business model--that Microsoft is not as experienced in dealing with. Hardware developers want innovation, not development. Development is great and all--but if new hardware keeps doing old things--no body will want new hard ware. Honestly, I don't think that people want the same old software suites.

So, I think that M$ will decline as long as it continues to develop ideas that have already been done. Compared to Ubuntu--my ultimate point--I think Ubuntu is doing exceptionally well at developing their software, and adding new innovations.

Please post your thoughts.

Daveski
November 14th, 2007, 01:44 AM
I was in my bed one night, unable to fall asleep--when it finally hit me. Microsoft will eventually decline in importance and market presence unless they make a crucial change in their business model.

I think this is why they are desperately guarding their market share with FUD and pursing (perhaps) Patent infringements. It seems to me that much of the Microsoft software that is purchased is because "I need it because everyone else is using it". This is why a widespread adoption of Open Document Format will hurt them as people WILL start to wonder if they need Microsoft Office, or just an office suite.

Let's not forget that Microsoft have diversified in recent years. We have Microsoft badged hardware which has become accepted; a games console line (which is a no-brainer if they can keep the development closely linked with desktop developments); web services (obviously as integrated as possible with the desktop to keep Windows desirable); and of course their server solutions.

frup
November 14th, 2007, 02:39 AM
It is possible that the desktop computer has stagnated and can't improve more with out that one in a million idea that only comes along so often.

This is where open source can compete from now on, decisions aren't made on what has to succeed but what will work well or what is fun to make, that kind of environment will create the solution.

A lot of people are mocking Microsoft for taking 5 years with Vista, and yes it was a major **** up, but in reality they should slow down their releases, This will allow the innovation they need to appear more natural and will result in a more stable system.

They should work on a special release cycle for each element of the operating system and make sure certain areas do get complete rewrites, all to often bugs have plagued many of their releases at once.

The number one thing they should do though is design an OS that works for its users, not for business, not to appease other business partners etc. (DRM etc.). With a good operating system, the business would naturally follow. With happy customers, less people would hate the company.

I think they need to embrace open source too (with out the next 2 steps of course) If they could eventually move to becoming a major part of computing on all systems in an open manner they really would have created a powerful position. An example of how they could do this is work with the wine project. If in some ways they took over de facto management of wine, moonlight, mono they would be able to sell the support contracts. Many of us linux users probably would shudder at that kind of idea but in reality (with out our bias) it would be an exciting prospect.

Knyven
November 14th, 2007, 02:57 AM
I think the closest victory we could get is make Microsoft an opensource software company.

frup
November 14th, 2007, 02:59 AM
I think the closest victory we could get is make Microsoft an opensource software company.

That should not be our victory, it is they who are enlightened.

NightCrawler03X
November 15th, 2007, 01:38 AM
You people are just being silly.

You use the best software in the world and you still pay attention to Microsoft? :)

bluedragon436
November 15th, 2007, 02:19 AM
Well I don't know what will for sure bring MS down, but I know that eventually they are going to go down....I have started seeing more and more advertisements, and businesses going to Linux based operating systems.....I have been looking online and have actually found quite a few school districts have banned the use of MS products, as well as a few Universities that have gone almost completely away from MS products..... I actually prefer using distros such as Ubuntu, as when I have an issue I can either find the answer fairly quickly or get some help quickly on a forum such as this one....but that is just my humble opinion...

SomeGuyDude
November 15th, 2007, 02:35 AM
Nothing will "bring Microsoft down", all I see (and hope for) is the possibility of openness that breaks MS's stranglehold on the market, which leads to greater diversity among operating systems.

As a result, MS will really work to keep on top of the hill, and 5-10 years down the road all of the OS's are better off as a result and none are "the best", only "the best for me."

We're getting close to that now, truthfully, and I'm glad for it. I don't want Ubuntu to suddenly be #1, because look at what everyone in the computer world does when they're on top. They muck it all up. Apple screwed themselves a few decades ago, MS did the same, Netscape did it and let IE take over, IE screwed up and let Mozilla take over again, now the "cool kids" are moving away from Firefox to Opera or other open source.

As long as it's more of a "pick what you like" environment over "so and so's #1 now, take him down so WE can be #1", I think everyone'll be better off.

bobbybobington
November 15th, 2007, 05:42 AM
This is the way I see it:
A good chunk of users will buy what comes with their computer. Vista sales will be limited mostly to new computer sales. xp will be defacto but vista will eventually replace it, because of the simple fact that the "average joe" doesn't know any better and/or doesn't car.The 1st service pack will help vista.

The chunk of users who are reasonably computer literate will lean towards OSX. Most of them will "wait and see", sticking with XP. The 1st vista service pack will help windows, but in the larger picture, Windows will loose market share to OSX (and linux to a smaller degree).

So where does that leave us? The biggest problem for Linux is awareness. How can people decide on an alternative if they don't know about it? The second biggest problem is ease of obtaining it. We of course would scoff at complaints of installation, installing Ubuntu is dead simple. But we need to think of this in broader terms. Installation involves an emotional investment. What if it doesn't work? What if I break something? Who can I rely on for help?

Right now we address these problems with a grass roots solution. Spreading person to person, making interconnected support networks of friends. This is good, we know it works, it's cheap. But it won't work for everyone. There are a good number of people who need a physical location to go for help. Basically we need to do what we are doing on the individual level except on the corporate level. Create connections between canonical and businesses, so people can find support at the local computer shop etc...

So basically, Ubuntu growth on the desktop will be limited to person to person support networks. Ubuntu can become as big as windows or OSX, if canonical extends this concept of support networks to embrace businesses.

I wonder if any of this makes sense...:)

Hizzoner
November 15th, 2007, 05:49 AM
I have used Linux for several years. And I also uses MS products and O'S'es.
Linux will never replace MS, simply because most businesses are the principle large users of MS products from mainframe, desktops, and Laptops. Sorry to disappoint Linux users, but open your eyey to the real world.

tyggna1
November 18th, 2007, 02:30 PM
I have used Linux for several years. And I also uses MS products and OSes.
Linux will never replace MS, simply because most businesses are the principle large users of MS products from mainframe, desktops, and Laptops. Sorry to disappoint Linux users, but open your eyes to the real world.

Well, it's a simple equation for businesses to convert to Linux. If Cost of Linux support > (is greater than) licensing fees and tech support for Windows--don't convert. That's not too hard to master--since we don't have licensing fees, and the more people who know how to work and fix linux, the cheaper the support will be (also, consider in-house technicians, not just Canonical).

For PC users--they prefer personalized support. The main "cost" associated for a PC user is time and education. That is a real cost. It takes there time to install, it takes there time to set up, and they have to learn, not only about the technical side of things, but also about how the community operates. When Ubuntu gets to the point that it takes less time to learn the OS than it does to work for the money to buy M$, then you'll see more and more converts.

Unterseeboot_234
November 18th, 2007, 04:43 PM
Personally, I see big changes on the horizon for M$. Mr. Billy Gates will be retiring so he can start the largest mis-guided philantrophy since Andrew Carnegie. Gates will need real money, not stock certificates, to offer his vision of welfare to the 3rd World. I see somebody like Asia purchasing those stock options. Gates and his love of BASIC programming is one of the central factors restraining innovation from M$.

fuscia
November 18th, 2007, 05:04 PM
apple has a better chance at taking away business from microsoft. why? people have heard of it and it follows the same 'any moron can use it badly' design. ubuntu is popular among people who use linux, not people. bud light isn't the best selling beer because it tastes so damn good.

Unterseeboot_234
November 18th, 2007, 06:30 PM
didn't mean to double-post, just hitting the back button on my browser got me here. sorry

omns
November 18th, 2007, 07:42 PM
ubuntu is popular among people who use linux, not people.
hmm, I'm not so sure about that. I see Ubuntu as being popular because it's easy for new comers. Long term users of Linux tend to prefer other distros.

Walker T
November 18th, 2007, 08:08 PM
Other distros? Or more flexible ones? And by that, I mean those that come with less and less wrapping, where you get to choose almost everything.

Then, I guess different releases are better for different things.

toupeiro
November 18th, 2007, 08:16 PM
apple has a better chance at taking away business from microsoft. why? people have heard of it and it follows the same 'any moron can use it badly' design. ubuntu is popular among people who use linux, not people. bud light isn't the best selling beer because it tastes so damn good.

I don't know about apple having a better chance. Apple was around before Microsoft, and throughout the years I've watched that company try to reinvent themselves through software and hardware. They haven't been able to make any significant impact to the IBM-PC / Microsoft market share. They are always off-target. Their adoption of the IBM-PC platform is a good example. The argument, for years, was not about the superiority of a MAC OS, but MAC hardware. Their hardware platform was superior. It would have been a better move to open that arch-type to other hardware manufacturers, which would in turn drive their OS and application market much more than kung-fu gripping their product line, and eventually replacing it just to stay alive.. If it wasn't for the Ipod, Apple would not be in the position they are today..

As far as Microsoft is concerned, I don't want them to disappear, just .. change. I felt the same way about Sun Microsystems some years ago. The company they are today, and the company they were 5 years ago are night and day. I want this for Microsoft, because I recognize their place at the desktop and in technical computing. What I am tired of, is being strong-armed in a direction I don't want to go. Linux integration and adoption is the largest and fastest growing force that can break this trend. I want parallel support from all software developers for Windows and Linux, regardless of distribution or patent threats. When this is achieved, then WE are the real victors. I think Ubuntu could be a pivot point to a scenario like that.

And bud light is only the best selling beer in the U.S. :) Anything said different is just marketing.

drewster1829
November 18th, 2007, 09:04 PM
I have used Linux for several years. And I also uses MS products and O'S'es.
Linux will never replace MS, simply because most businesses are the principle large users of MS products from mainframe, desktops, and Laptops. Sorry to disappoint Linux users, but open your eyey to the real world.

But Linux DID replace Microsoft Windows...on my two machines. :) Your prediction of the future sounds a little like "The PC Compatible will never replace the genuine IBM PC, because IBM has too much market share", or "The manufacturing base of the United States will never be replaced by foreign competitors", or "AT&T (and the Bell System) will never be replace by another telephone company", etc etc.

Linux has gained a bit of market share in the past few years, but of course it's nowhere near MS's (and neither is OS-X)...but words like never should be used cautiously, because history has shown us that statements using that word usually turn out to be incorrect (someday).

I first started with Red Hat 6.2, and I've tried FreeBSD, Madriva, and other random distros of Linux and FreeBSD, usually with the result of me going back to Windows, usually because of unsupported hardware, or I couldn't find an application to do what I wanted (and many times this was probably due to my lack of education about Linux software...no failing of Linux itself). ](*,)

Since I recently switched to Ubuntu just a few months ago, and was so impressed at how easy it was compared to my experiments in the past (and probably 90% of my hardware worked out of the box), I've never looked back. I'll never put another MS product on my two machines, as Ubuntu is faster, prettier (IMHO), and better at just about everything I use it for than Win XP.

Linux was never really designed to be a desktop OS (IMO) until Ubuntu, and they're really doing a great job. If they can sustain their growth in users, Microsoft will really have to pull out the big guns. They used to just ignore Linux, but since that hasn't been working lately, they've launched their anti-Linux ad campaign (and you should see the 'facts' about Linux on their website....it makes me cry to see such lies, but it makes me smile to realize that they really are frightened about Linux's potential. :)

jflaker
November 18th, 2007, 09:13 PM
SNIPPED.....bud light isn't the best selling beer because it tastes so damn good.

Interesting you said that. When I was a new beer drinker, Budweiser (any version) was GREAT and GREAT TASTING as my taste buds were not educated about what beer should taste like

I have had some fine German brews, like Hacker-pshorr and Rauchenfels Steinbier Beers.....Rauchenfels being the better of the two. It isn't until you have educated your taste buds when you can know a good beer..........same goes to any fine OS........the uneducated user thinks that WINDOW$ is the best thing since sliced bread as they have never "tasted" any other.

Until we can give everyone a taste test, it will be difficult to bring Ubuntu up to the level of Apple or M$

tyggna1
November 19th, 2007, 05:21 AM
I don't know about apple having a better chance. Apple was around before Microsoft, and throughout the years I've watched that company try to reinvent themselves through software and hardware. They haven't been able to make any significant impact to the IBM-PC / Microsoft market share. They are always off-target. Their adoption of the IBM-PC platform is a good example. The argument, for years, was not about the superiority of a MAC OS, but MAC hardware. Their hardware platform was superior. It would have been a better move to open that arch-type to other hardware manufacturers, which would in turn drive their OS and application market much more than kung-fu gripping their product line, and eventually replacing it just to stay alive.. If it wasn't for the Ipod, Apple would not be in the position they are today..


Well, apple just has a different business model. They get more profit per sale than Microsoft. I'm just quoting my dad (MBA manager over Intel's power server projects), but he says that they're a high-margin company. They ask a higher price for the exact same hardware as a PC, and they get it. As a result, apple stays in business because people are willing to pay more for an apple than for a PC.

And, I agree with your statement, but I'd like to add that Linux has the capability (if not at the moment, then at some future date) to have the same advantages of MAC, at the price of a PC. When that day comes (and that will be a different day for every individual user) then I think we'll see explosive growth in the Linux desktop.

That, and, considering our own selfish desire for gaining converts--the more developers who convert; the more users who report bugs; the more software developers see potential; and the more hardware vendors realize that Linux support is important--the easier it becomes for us, and the better our software and drivers will become.

My vision of Ubuntu is that it is evolving more rapidly than M$ products, and is more versatile than Apple. If I'm right in believing that, then not only will Ubuntu catch up with Microsoft, but it will surpass it, and it'll have such a great momentum that Microsoft won't be able to keep up--unless they change their market strategy now and start trying to build momentum.

Personally, I think they've lost a lot of their "steam" with Vista.

mini_g
November 19th, 2007, 06:50 AM
...Opera or other open source.
Er, Opera isn't OSS (Clip from the License): "You shall not modify, translate, reverse engineer, decompile or disassemble the Software or any part thereof or otherwise attempt to derive source code or create derivative works therefrom." It does contain OSS for some components though.

TeaSwigger
November 19th, 2007, 07:06 AM
Well, y'know. MS exists for profit. Some linux programmers and volunteers work for the purpose of coding and share if someone can use it. MS will someday - not in the near future - abandon their software enterprises. Market forces, politics, whatever. MS may run 97% of the "media product" instead. Or drift over into real estate. Maybe they'll get their way and become even stronger in the software world, until they become more of a burden to too many people and become the next Standard Oil. That will all change, sure as the tide. By then, who knows. Maybe almost everyone is criminalized out of creating or sharing foss. Maybe other powers just as profit centric rise in China and take over MS's game. Maybe the financial model collapses and foss ascends. Either way there will be some foss folks, whether or not there is a MS in software. Maybe I should leave the speculating there, my fingers are getting tired :p

toupeiro
November 19th, 2007, 05:51 PM
Well, apple just has a different business model. They get more profit per sale than Microsoft. I'm just quoting my dad (MBA manager over Intel's power server projects), but he says that they're a high-margin company. They ask a higher price for the exact same hardware as a PC, and they get it. As a result, apple stays in business because people are willing to pay more for an apple than for a PC.


Well, your dad is dead on about apple's PC market-share. That is how they stayed in business, because people will pay for a name, regardless of what is in the box. There is nothing wrong with that, I guess you can call it their first good marketing move with their PC line. However, in that regard, to technical people, and to other managers in a position to buy hardware in mass bulk, there is nothing special about a MAC anymore. Sure, they make more money off the retail sales, but its the mass bulk sales that saturate the workplace and offer the sales numbers companies so greatly want on their marketing jargon.

Making more profit per sale is only from a retail marketing outlook, but not from an R&D and and material cost per unit. Microsoft's sales are primarily in units of software, and Apples sales are primarily in units of hardware. Hardware materials must be constantly procured, and incurs a higher production cost overhead than software. So, it costs apple more to produce a unit than Microsoft. Once they have their product, it only costs them the price of the media, retail presentation, and shipping.

I do disagree greatly that its apples PC line that makes them a high-margin company. In the recent past, if you compared the amount of PPC macs sold to the number of IBM-PC's (80x86) and the asking price, then consider a 300+ dollar MP3 player and the numbers of those sold worldwide, and its very easy to figure out where mac's profit comes from. Even the cost of a low end Nano at $100US, if you compared what it costs to make a solid state device, they are making extreme profit overhead on that if you consider the sales numbers. I can see the ipod approaching sales numbers of the game-boy, which was estimated some years ago that if you put every game-boy sold side by side, you could circle the world with them.

So what your dad said is correct for the most part, and is the model apple almost exclusively relies on. Its also almost what broke them until the iPod and adoption of 80x86 hardware for their computing products. I think its bad business ethics if you have to change your products (negatively, and thats not to slam intel, but comparison of PPC v/s x86) to support a failing model. The adoption of 80x86 will cause more MAC hardware sales, but it will not make it a household name, which in apples model is what it will need to be to compete with Microsoft.. The iPod is a household name, the Macbook is not :) I don't predict making an Intel Macbook is going to change that with exception to the loyalists.

Linux does tout some household and industrial devices as well. Tivo, Explorer (cable DVR box), MP3 players, smart appliances, hospital patient care systems, cash registers, smart warehouse forklifts, Even cars like the Chrysler super-8 concept. The bad thing is that most people don't realize it. The reason is because there is no reason to quantify the number of linux devices being commonly used because that number doesn't profit linux (in the sense of dollars), only statistics. That mindset needs to change! Awareness is what is going to make things different for linux's adoption as a mainstream desktop alternative, and for Microsoft's relationship with their customers and product offerings.. People need to know what linux is, where its at already, and what its already doing for them.

Microsoft's slogan used to be "Where do you want to go today?" But their actions say "You are going here today." There has never been more of an open door for linux at the desktop than now.

sorry for the long ramble :)

Ocxic
November 19th, 2007, 07:11 PM
it's going to be the switch from 32-bit to 64-bit systems, thats really going to hurt microsoft,, think about it,, ubuntu and most othe distros already have a 64-bit working OS,, MS still has yet to market such an operationg system,, and yes i know windows 64-bit is out there, but it sucks,, proof of this comes from the fact that if the 64-bit WinOS was really thast good, they'd be selling it now,, not to mention the fact that every software dev for windows software will have to be re-written for 64-bit,, something microsoft has no control over

Daveski
November 20th, 2007, 01:32 AM
it's going to be the switch from 32-bit to 64-bit systems, thats really going to hurt microsoft...

Absolutely. Have you seen this article:

http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html

According to this, the war will be won by the end of 2008, and Linux is in a prime position.

Can+~
November 20th, 2007, 01:45 AM
The main reason why windows won the "OS wars" back then, was that 64-bit was way to expensive, so they made windows 32 bit and beated everyone out of market, basically, by the oldest trick in the market, creating a cheaper product.

It's true that now that CPU's and everything else are moving towards 64 bit, microsoft will have some real trouble.

But the only way to really tackle microsoft market share is to:
a) Have more software developed for linux (and windows too for easy migration).
b) Games based on openGL, and make openGL a 100% (It already is an standard, but nobody uses it =( ) standard and encourage game developers to sell 100% openGL systems, and hardware manufacturers to boost openGL performance.

It's a long road to go, but we'll get there :guitar:

Now, about the original thread:
Microsoft has been innovative, but now they are just eating smaller companies and making their company fatter. They ate up Halo franchise and made it an exclusive for the Xbox (which is a completely valid move), etc...
Just check out, wikipedia has an entire page for this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_acquired_by_Microsoft_Corporatio n

heartss
November 20th, 2007, 01:47 AM
give me voice chat, without which i can't switch to linux. i have been searching for many years, till now it's still far from being well supported as it should be.

p_quarles
November 20th, 2007, 01:49 AM
give me voice chat, without which i can't switch to linux. i have been searching for many years, till now it's still far from being well supported as it should be.
http://www.skype.com/intl/en/download/skype/linux/beta/

Can+~
November 20th, 2007, 01:52 AM
http://www.skype.com/intl/en/download/skype/linux/beta/

Yeah, skype was released for linux like a month ago.

inversekinetix
November 20th, 2007, 05:20 AM
I think it would be funny if MS was building a new 64bit OS from scratch and just buying time with vista.

fuscia
November 20th, 2007, 05:38 AM
to those of you who responded to my previous post, let's face it: anchor steam is better than bud light, but most people will never try it and it will never outsell bud light. don't forget, most people are idiots.

toupeiro
November 20th, 2007, 07:50 AM
mmm I have 3 liberty ales and three anchor porters in my fridge right now. Anchor beer rocks

loell
November 20th, 2007, 08:41 AM
guys, if I may..

Apache didn't beat MS IIS just because they just thought about it during their bedtimes... they actually did something.

firefox is winning over Internet Explorer because they made their product better

now.. Stop day dreaming. :popcorn:

and get yourself more involve. ie(testing , documentation , development , or any contribution)