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drizek
August 20th, 2005, 10:48 PM
I see a lot of new linux users trying out ubuntu or another linux and sticking with it. OF course, there are the few who give up after a while and go back to windows, but from what i can see, the majority of people stick around. TBH, ive never seen a "ive used linux for the past two years nad now im going back to windows" post on a forum. youd think that linux market share would be increasing steadily, but i havent found any concrete evidence to support this.

So is there some sort of statistic somewhere showing that linux is in fact growing?

sapo
August 20th, 2005, 10:54 PM
Yes linux is growing.. but most people dual boot and use linux just to play around...

If you ask who JUST use linux and DONT HAVE a windows partition.. it would be minority...

btw.. i dont have windows anymore.. but i still have a win98 running in VMWare cause i work with web development and i need to test stuff in IE ](*,)

So.. the hard part isnt USE linux.. but GIVE UP with windows..

jerome bettis
August 20th, 2005, 10:56 PM
http://counter.li.org/

cyrix
August 20th, 2005, 11:04 PM
I am a newb to the linux worl per say. I've been around it for years but never jumped into it and tried to learn it until lately. I've tried ever flavor of linux out there over the past two weeks and I think I'm going to stick with Ubuntu.

drizek
August 20th, 2005, 11:07 PM
http://counter.li.org/
but that doesnt account for the people who went back to windows after using linux fora couple weeks.

aysiu
August 20th, 2005, 11:15 PM
I think it's impossible to get an accurate measure. I, for example, am not counted. And, it's possible (probable even) that someone could have signed up on the counter and quit Linux. That person would still be counted. Since Linux doesn't have licenses, there's no general sense of how many people are using. I can burn an ISO of Ubuntu, and I can give copies of that ISO to ten of my friends. Ubuntu would know only that downloaded that one ISO (if they even know that at all).

isTHEr3mOr3
August 20th, 2005, 11:16 PM
I think the absolute numbers are indeed slowly rising, but I don't think there's much change in marketshare on the desktop.
If I am right that is about 1% and doesn't change much.. (yet)

earobinson
August 21st, 2005, 12:55 AM
The best way to figure this out would be to look at the forum stats. And having run linux for 3 ish years now (and i no longer run windows at all) i know that the fourms have been geting bigger, i started with fedora and now use ubuntu, but both sites have more and more regulars now so the os must be getting bigger. Some one should make a program that gets run by cron and tells a website your still runing linux, i would run that program.

drizek
August 21st, 2005, 01:19 AM
i made this topic after seeing a statistic on www.w3schools.com , whic had linux at 3.3%. i was surprised however that it had gone down from 3.5% last month.

this number is obviously inflated, but it is a web design website so the people there are smarter and more likely to use linux ;). they say they have the stats up there t o show trends, and overall, it seems that linux is growing. but what would account for a short term loss like the one this month?

here is the page BTW

http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

jobezone
August 21st, 2005, 01:26 AM
I think it's impossible to get an accurate measure. I, for example, am not counted. And, it's possible (probable even) that someone could have signed up on the counter and quit Linux. That person would still be counted. Since Linux doesn't have licenses, there's no general sense of how many people are using. I can burn an ISO of Ubuntu, and I can give copies of that ISO to ten of my friends. Ubuntu would know only that downloaded that one ISO (if they even know that at all).
Well, the linux counter refresh their counter every year or so, by e-mailing the participants. Those which don't respond or want to take out their entry, are deleted. This would include former linux users, I think.

What lack in the linux counter, is that not everybody using linux has registered i it. Yet:)

isTHEr3mOr3
August 21st, 2005, 02:04 AM
All numbers fail if you ar not using marketshares. If the total market grows 10% and Linux grows with 5% you are losing marketshare.
Computermarket is still growing worldwide and I don't think Linux is gaining ground on the desktop market. Not yet anyway.

poofyhairguy
August 21st, 2005, 02:40 AM
I see a lot of new linux users trying out ubuntu or another linux and sticking with it. OF course, there are the few who give up after a while and go back to windows, but from what i can see, the majority of people stick around. TBH, ive never seen a "ive used linux for the past two years nad now im going back to windows" post on a forum. youd think that linux market share would be increasing steadily, but i havent found any concrete evidence to support this.

So is there some sort of statistic somewhere showing that linux is in fact growing?

Its hard to find good data. With something like Firefox you can just look at the stats of a few major websites to figure out the use percentage...but with Desktop Linux its hard to get accurate numbers.

But Linux definately is growing. Every person that buys a Tivo gets another Linux system in a home. Every person taht buys a new Motorola Phone (some) invests in a new Linux computer. Every time Google adds more server to deal with a higher search load, Linux grows. Anyone that tells you Linux is dying is lying to themselves.

As far as Ubuntu goes, we have no solid numbers. The best stat. we have is how many CDs have been shipped- to this date over 1,000,000!

aysiu
August 21st, 2005, 02:48 AM
As far as Ubuntu goes, we have no solid numbers. The best stat. we have is how many CDs have been shipped- to this date over 1,000,000! So maybe about 100,000 Ubuntu users? I know I got ten CDs, and I'm the only one using them. That's pretty impressive. I wish I knew more Ubuntu users. I know only four Linux users in real life. One uses Gentoo. Another uses Damn Small Linux. Another uses Debian. I guess that's better than knowing no one at all... For the longest time, though, I had no idea they used Linux. When I did find out one of them used Linux, I bumped into him a little later and said, "So, I heard you're a penguin lover." He was like, "Yeah. I got started on Red Hat..."

I feel like I'm in some secret club. A fun club, though, not an exclusive, mean club.

Paul Bramscher
August 21st, 2005, 04:25 AM
The majority of people are probably using a PC for gaming (a weak side with linux), internet or word processing.

I'm a full-time LAMP programmer. In my environment at the University of Minnesota (a Big-10 school) the number of linux servers is definitely on the rise. I can't think of a better OS to code on. International community of users, open source, ideal for research and sharing. What more do you want? We run some enterprise stuff on linux, and I do all my development work for the university libraries on linux. My newest box is running ubuntu.

So it depends on what you want to do. Here at home I have a WinXP box because of some eBay-related programs my wife needs, but two linux boxes to do actual work on. I've written mySQL databases to store stuff, with web interfaces on a self-signed SSL encrypted site. I do this professionally, so I whip them out left and right.

If I wanted to do something like this on Windows, I'd have to spend some
serious cash or else accept crippled versions of things. Limited database connects, a crippled database (Access instead of SQL-Server), etc. LAMP is just a breeze to set up once you code with it awhile.

The way I see it, software should unleash hardware. I should be able to set up a box that pushes the envelope of my hardware to its limit -- and back it off to my comfort level. But with Windows, you seem to get a crippled OS (from a server perspective) and need to advance it according to your pocketbook.

So linux on the desktop is still a little behind maybe (but good enough for me). Linux gaming is behind. But linux as a server is, in my opinion, really ahead. Ubuntu is the sort of distro that's probably highly well poised to make inroads on the desktop. If I was in our support department, I'd recommend setting up an ubuntu computer lab on campus.

BWF89
August 21st, 2005, 04:35 AM
but that doesnt account for the people who went back to windows after using linux fora couple weeks.
And the people who would run Linux the instant they could but can't because their family only has 1 computer which they aren't allowed to mess with and even if they could their printer isn't supported so it wouldn't be worthwile to switch until they bought new hardware anyway ;-) .

But eventhough we don't know exactly how much Linux is growing (and it is growing) we do know that most computer users have atleast 1 Open Source application on their computer.

Take for instance LimeWire. I was talking to this kid in my foods class and he says he uses LW to download songs onto his MP3 player. Everyone who uses a BitTorrent client is useing OSS. Firefox users, A good amount of the old console emulators are crossplatform GPL and I'm sure there is even more I forgot to mention.

dcraven
August 21st, 2005, 05:21 AM
I've seen a steady but slow growth in Linux hype and apparent usage over the past year and a half. My theory is that the influx is simply of people that have been getting bored and want to try something different. WindowsXP is getting a little long in the tooth these days, and it just gets less fun.

I think that once Vista is shipped, regardless of where Linux is then, there will be an exodus of these same users back to Windows for the same reason. Even those who say they never would will try it out to see what it's like, become comfortable, and stay there for a couple of years until it gets boring again. Then the cycle continues.

Cheers,
~djc

drizek
August 21st, 2005, 05:47 AM
I've seen a steady but slow growth in Linux hype and apparent usage over the past year and a half. My theory is that the influx is simply of people that have been getting bored and want to try something different. WindowsXP is getting a little long in the tooth these days, and it just gets less fun.

I think that once Vista is shipped, regardless of where Linux is then, there will be an exodus of these same users back to Windows for the same reason. Even those who say they never would will try it out to see what it's like, become comfortable, and stay there for a couple of years until it gets boring again. Then the cycle continues.

Cheers,
~djc
i disagree.

if linux is superior at the time where it counts(where longhorn makes improvements) then people will stick to linux. this means eyecandy and more improtantly, desktop search. beagle is already, from what ive seen of the two, equal to or superior to winFS when working correctly. hopefully it will in breezy, if not, breezy+1 should have it working. Tenor in KDE 4 seems like it will improve upon the idea with the conext linkage engine thing, and with more integration of search into KDE.

i wouldnt be surprised if windows vista is obsolete the second it hits the shelves.

Hobbsee
August 21st, 2005, 09:17 AM
i'd say it probably is growing, probably more than most people realise, due to the wait on shipped cd's, so people with broadband just download them...

I doubt people would move from linux to windows vista - it's so nice to be able to see the technology sections of online newspapers, look at the new microsoft viruses, and think "ah, i'm so glad i dont have to deal with that"

bored2k
August 21st, 2005, 09:35 AM
I doubt people would move from linux to windows vista
First of all, some of us don't have this blue tree that automatically creates tax free U.S. dollar bills. Where am I going with this? Some people actually do care about what goes through their credit card. Buying an -IMO- Incomplete OS for hundreds of dollars wich would need hundreds -even reaching the thousands- more to get competent applications (specially office productivity suites) and antivirus software just doesn't cut it for me. That's just the tip of the iceberg on why I wouldn't switch.


- it's so nice to be able to see the technology sections of online newspapers, look at the new microsoft viruses, and think "ah, i'm so glad i dont have to deal with that"That is true. Looking at deadly at a plethora of deadly viruses (specially on websites like specialized websites like trendmicro.com et al= from a third person perspective is just great.

SamH
August 21st, 2005, 09:57 AM
I think Linux is growing. As many of the earlier respondents have noted, there is no good way to measure this. However, as we all continue to work with Linux, and to one degree or another promote Linux, it will grow.

I've personally converted three people in the last 5 years. That doesn't seem like much. But it is the early part of the geometrical progression model. I convert three, then they convert three, then those people each convert three, etc, ad nauseum. You know the drill.

My two cents (pence, centavos, etc) worth.

xequence
August 21st, 2005, 03:47 PM
Id say linux is growing but definitally windows is growing faster. All dells systems have windows and they ship ALOT of computers... NOt to mention the other computer makers like HP and Lenovo.

Id say ubuntu is definitally growing within the linux community. I saw a poll about the best distro on a linux site. It had the major ones and ubuntu had 38% or something. It was much more then any other one on there. THere were thousands of votes... Seeing that made me happy :P

Knyven
August 21st, 2005, 04:13 PM
I remember back then... i used to dual boot windowsxp and win98 because winxp was so new that there were few programs/hardware compability and games runs slow, until after several years it became my default desktop. And now im having the same dilemma of dualbooting windows and ubuntu.

But i think linux programmers should unite and make a SOLID linux OS like FREE Linux for desktop and Linux for server somewhat like windows home/pro and nt/2000, rather than wasting time and resources building their own versions of linux..... at this point linux is lagging behind microsoft. And i think ubuntu must be the ONE to be a solid linux OS...

My reason for going to linux is because i belong to a less fortunate country, and all prices is up including microsoft licensing, and paying for a duplicate copy that cost almost half my PC is absurb. Alot i mean... ALOT people here use pirated/crack version of Windows...so being legit is the best thing to do but following the so called EULA or 1 windows 1 PC policy is wacko, people here would rather be captain hook.

Even our government is paying a lot of money for microsoft multiple use licensing, when all they do with their old PC is office work... office.. print....solitare imagine that what linux can bring if the desktop will be replaced by FREE linux..... life for us would be better.

aysiu
August 21st, 2005, 04:58 PM
I'm a bit confused by this conversation. People make it sound as if someone is likely to actually go out and buy Vista by itself and install it over Linux. Would that really be the case? Or would it be that by the time Vista comes out, your old Windows 2000 or even Windows XP computer is... well, old, so you buy a new computer and it comes preloaded with Vista.

I'm not sure if this is the most appropriate analogy, but "choosing" an OS for your computer is a bit like "choosing" the gender of your pet cat. Maybe there are procedures for giving your cat a sex change, but your cat comes with a gender "preinstalled."

jobezone
August 21st, 2005, 07:25 PM
that was bloody funny :) and a perfect analogy, unfortunately.

isTHEr3mOr3
August 21st, 2005, 10:50 PM
I'm a bit confused by this conversation. People make it sound as if someone is likely to actually go out and buy Vista by itself and install it over Linux. Would that really be the case? Or would it be that by the time Vista comes out, your old Windows 2000 or even Windows XP computer is... well, old, so you buy a new computer and it comes preloaded with Vista.


I guess you're right, I don't think Microsoft sells a lot of single copies of their OS. Most will be preinstalled, and only companies will buy the software if they need it.
Don't forget the illegal copies of Windows. A lot of people that don't want to pay for a new OS, will use this instead of free and legal Linux distro's.

I'm afraid only a bad Vista or a very rigid anti-piracy policy will change their domination in the near future.

drizek
August 22nd, 2005, 06:04 AM
why do you think they dont enforce antipiracy strongly? they try to keep the mainstream from copying windows xp with their activation crap, but they do very little to stop the enthusiasts.

MS has never, to my knowlege, sued anyone for pirating windows. they let known pirates continue to use windows update in the name of "security" yet they dont have any more security updates for windows 9x and i think even 2k.

mstlyevil
August 22nd, 2005, 06:52 AM
Id say linux is growing but definitally windows is growing faster. All dells systems have windows and they ship ALOT of computers... NOt to mention the other computer makers like HP and Lenovo.

I believe Pc World or C-Net had an article that one of the big PC Manufactuers was planning on selling PC's with Linux distros on them. I could swear it was HP or Dell, But am not sure.


I guess you're right, I don't think Microsoft sells a lot of single copies of their OS. Most will be preinstalled, and only companies will buy the software if they need it.

I built my PC from scratch. I hate getting all that preloaded junk the major PC companies have on thier system. I also hate the lack of options they give you when buying a PC. I bought my XP Pro SP1 CD for 180 us dollars. Most people who build their own PC's are gamers and they mostly use some form of Windows. Three quarters of them bought their copy legit because to them money is no object to be able to play the lastest games at the fastest speeds. So I guess my argument is a lot of people buy the latest M$ os to keep up with the latest hardware and software available.

Mgcross
August 22nd, 2005, 07:12 AM
I see a lot of new linux users trying out ubuntu or another linux and sticking with it. OF course, there are the few who give up after a while and go back to windows, but from what i can see, the majority of people stick around. TBH, ive never seen a "ive used linux for the past two years nad now im going back to windows" post on a forum. youd think that linux market share would be increasing steadily, but i havent found any concrete evidence to support this.

So is there some sort of statistic somewhere showing that linux is in fact growing?

Yes, Linux is growing, but we are a long way from the time when it's a serious contender for home desktop supremacy.

I had quite a frustrating conversation with a friend back home the other day.

I have been interested in and following Linux for MANY years, and went to mostly linux with MAndrake 8.1, but still had Windows on my HD for gaming. I have since wiped Windows completly off the hard-disk. I don't hate windows, I just hate worring about virus checkers, pop-up blockers, spyware scanners, etc.

As I was saying, my friend back home was mad that I didn't have the latest, greatest Yahoo! Messenger client with all of it's graphical bells and whistles. In the course of our conversation, I came to discover that she's still using IE! NOT FIREFOX! She told me that with her downloaded pop-up blocker, anti-virus proggy, and three differant spyware scanners, she was very happy: Firefox didn't do the things she wanted! When I asked her what those were, she couldn't really tell me.

When I used this example - Suppose you buy a new car, and that car is wondeful, accept that it randomly looses control and smashes into things. When you go the dealer, they sell you their brand new product that will keep this from happening - "GM No Control Loss", instead of fixing the problem. Would this make you happy with your new car?

She got quite hostile at this point. Users don't get it...Windows is best, because free implies second rate. Period. Sucks, but it's true. We need to change that, somehow.

If I can't convince someone that Firefox is a better browser, what chance do I have of convincing them that there is a world beyond Windows?

DAmn little, I say. ](*,)

aysiu
August 22nd, 2005, 07:20 AM
I believe Pc World or C-Net had an article that one of the big PC Manufactuers was planning on selling PC's with Linux distros on them. I could swear it was HP or Dell, But am not sure. HP. Did that ever happen? It wasn't supposed to happen in the US, so I'm out of the loop on it.

http://infoworld.com/article/05/05/23/21OPopenent_1.html
http://www.ubuntulinux.org/support/custom/hplaptops



As I was saying, my friend back home was mad that I didn't have the latest, greatest Yahoo! Messenger client with all of it's graphical bells and whistles. In the course of our conversation, I came to discover that she's still using IE! NOT FIREFOX! She told me that with her downloaded pop-up blocker, anti-virus proggy, and three differant spyware scanners, she was very happy: Firefox didn't do the things she wanted! When I asked her what those were, she couldn't really tell me. I've long since given up on trying to actively convert people to Firefox. When people come to me with internet or other computer problems (spyware, for example), though, I definitely say, "Oh, you're still using Internet Explorer? That's the problem."

Here's the irony: one of my co-workers complained that she couldn't go onto a particular financial website. I noticed that she was using a search toolbar on IE (actually two search toolbars), and I installed Firefox, uninstalled the two search toolbars (which she got to do pop-up blocking), installed the IEView Firefox extension, and made it so that every time she visited the IE-only financial website in Firefox, it would pop up in IE (just that one site).

So she's now happily using Firefox so that she's able to view an IE-only site, which she was unable to do in IE itself (with search toolbars).

drizek
August 22nd, 2005, 07:29 AM
I believe Pc World or C-Net had an article that one of the big PC Manufactuers was planning on selling PC's with Linux distros on them. I could swear it was HP or Dell, But am not sure.



I built my PC from scratch. I hate getting all that preloaded junk the major PC companies have on thier system. I also hate the lack of options they give you when buying a PC. I bought my XP Pro SP1 CD for 180 us dollars. Most people who build their own PC's are gamers and they mostly use some form of Windows. Three quarters of them bought their copy legit because to them money is no object to be able to play the lastest games at the fastest speeds. So I guess my argument is a lot of people buy the latest M$ os to keep up with the latest hardware and software available.
gamers tend to buy OEM windows cd's, which are cheaper.

hp was supposed to sell ubuntu lappys in europe, and i dont think they delivered.

it was cool to see the compaq logo as one of the sponsors for the linux counter though :)

Edit: and i saw a guy wearing a mozilla shirt today. it was actually pretty cool looking. it was the first time i noticed the mozilla logos resemblance to the communist logos.

poofyhairguy
August 22nd, 2005, 07:35 AM
I believe Pc World or C-Net had an article that one of the big PC Manufactuers was planning on selling PC's with Linux distros on them. I could swear it was HP or Dell, But am not sure.


HP sells a line of laptops compatible with Ubuntu. HP does not (nor does any big computer seller) ship a laptop or desktop with Linux ON IT, or they would lose the ability to buy OEM copies of Windows.

poofyhairguy
August 22nd, 2005, 07:38 AM
As I was saying, my friend back home was mad that I didn't have the latest, greatest Yahoo! Messenger client with all of it's graphical bells and whistles. In the course of our conversation, I came to discover that she's still using IE! NOT FIREFOX! She told me that with her downloaded pop-up blocker, anti-virus proggy, and three differant spyware scanners, she was very happy: Firefox didn't do the things she wanted! When I asked her what those were, she couldn't really tell me.


How can she know what Firefox can do if she never tried it? By far I believe Firefox in the program that is WAY better than the comparable MS program.

But many people just don't know. I have found a good way to sell Firefox, call it "the new Netscape." You aren't lying...Firefox is Netscape's child!

drizek
August 22nd, 2005, 07:46 AM
How can she know what Firefox can do if she never tried it? By far I believe Firefox in the program that is WAY better than the comparable MS program.

But many people just don't know. I have found a good way to sell Firefox, call it "the new Netscape." You aren't lying...Firefox is Netscape's child!
or you can just tell people to use the _real_ new netscape, which is actually kinda cool, and more idiot friendly than firefox.

aysiu
August 22nd, 2005, 07:53 AM
or you can just tell people to use the _real_ new netscape, which is actually kinda cool, and more idiot friendly than firefox. That's true. She probably would dig the new Netscape, which uses both Firefox and Internet Explorer, depending on the website's "trustworthiness."

poofyhairguy
August 22nd, 2005, 08:07 AM
or you can just tell people to use the _real_ new netscape, which is actually kinda cool, and more idiot friendly than firefox.


I can't, with a clear conscience, advise anyone to use anything with that much AOL advertising.

Plus then you lose the extensions.

mstlyevil
August 22nd, 2005, 08:16 AM
gamers tend to buy OEM windows cd's, which are cheaper.

True my copy of XP Pro is OEM. I was not about to shell out 300 plus dollars for a OS.
I am not a hardcore gamer though, so the switch to mostly linux would be no problem for me. At the time I built my PC, I was told by most of my geek friends that there was no viable alternative to windows. How wrong they are. I think because most of them make a living helping people fix windows pc's that have viruses and malware loaded on them, thay had an incentive to say something that uniformed.

aysiu
August 22nd, 2005, 08:24 AM
I was told by most of my geek friends that there was no viable alternative to windows. How wrong they are. I think because most of them make a living helping people fix windows pc's that have viruses and malware loaded on them, thay had an incentive to say something that uniformed. You probably know your friends better than I do, but that's quite a cynical assessment there. My (perhaps naive) guess would be that they're more likely just plain ignorant of the alternatives.

poofyhairguy
August 22nd, 2005, 08:38 AM
You probably know your friends better than I do, but that's quite a cynical assessment there. My (perhaps naive) guess would be that they're more likely just plain ignorant of the alternatives.

I know a person that develops web apps for a living that doesn't know what Firefox is (till I spilt the beans).

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

http://www.jargon.net/jargonfile/h/HanlonsRazor.html

mstlyevil
August 22nd, 2005, 03:18 PM
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

You are probally right about the stupidity part. Microsoft and Intel has most of the tech community believing they have them by the balls. I learned of AMD from gamers and learned of Linux on the net. What is funny is AMD is leading the way in proccessor innovation and they have the best computing power to watts ratio of any proccessor on the market, but you don't hear many IT guys telling companies to ditch Intel for AMD. And for those of you who are going to flame me for not mentioning hyperthreading, my reply is DUAL CORE. Go and read the benchmarks posted by pc stats, Pc World and others. :)

drizek
August 22nd, 2005, 06:55 PM
ya, amd kicks ass. the only place intel has them beat is with their pentium m's, but amd still makes better mobile gaming CPU's, and much better desktop gaming cpu's. dual core is also going to help them out quite a bit. with intel, hyperthreading is disabled on their dualcores, so its a "level" playingfield. the pentium 4 is such a huge disaster for intel. pentium m's are based on the pentium 3, and their only chance to compete in the desktop market would be a kickass pentium 5.

anyway, i hope amd wins hte lawsuit.