What is your estimate for true, worldwide, linux desktop use?

[triptoe]

Just curious... it is hard to figure out how many people actually use linux in general. So I am asking... to count all distributions... and whether the desktop is a home based one... or one in a more corporate environment... what is your guess on how many use linux so far?

[helliewm]

I think more people use Linux than we realise? I work with a group of university academics/medical doctors in a voluntary capacity and 3 of us use Linux of various flavours. At (paid) work 2 of us use Linux, we work from home and get paid an allowance so can choose our own PC/Laptops and software. Personally I use Ubuntu and I use it for work too. I am 100% Ubuntu I have never even used WINE there is always seems to be an open source alternative. I have never gamed.

I would say 100's of millions worldwide.

Helen

[jrusso2]

Hard to say cause there are so many server running Linux. For desktops only I would put it about 5%

[triptoe]

Hard to say cause there are so many server running Linux. For desktops only I would put it about 5%

If you consider that about a billion people have access to a computer... then 5% would be 50 million.

Another good question i guess is how many people have computers?

[jomiolto]

Tough question to answer for sure. Linux userbase on desktops is often estimated to be around 1%, sometimes even less than that and sometimes more, but I think those statistics usually ignore the fact that there are a lot of people who dual-boot, and thus use more than one operating system.

Hmm, and counting people that use it at work (and school) makes it even more difficult, but making I wild guess I'd say that, at least, 25 - 50 million people use Linux regularly.

Not nearly enough, anyway ;)

[oOJINxOo]

*nix runs most of the internet.
so if its not a BSD server, its likely to be linux.

but since the question is about desktops, no idea, probably atleast 50% if not more, but thats just a guess, you have to consider the fact that not all countrys care so much about microsh*te, e.g holland are very open source friendly, but in my honest opinion, no idea...

[starcraft.man]

If you consider that about a billion people have access to a computer... then 5% would be 50 million.

Another good question i guess is how many people have computers?

Whoa! A billion is a bit too much. I know the last surveys showed total desktop users were around 600-650 million users worldwide. Cell phones were estimated at between 1 and 1.5 billion I believe. I know it seems low, but there aren't as many computer users as people think.

As to the actual question, I found this study on digg (http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php). I guess it's not as scientific as the desktop study (which while I don't have source am pretty sure it was very credible from a University). The estimate it puts is about 1.34% Linux which seems low but really not so much. Assuming it's low, lets round to 2% for the high ball.

1.34% of 650 million (I'll assume high number for best results possible) translates to 8.71 million Linux Desktop users. 2% of same base is 13 million.

I'd say that number is around right, 25 million was the estimated OSX install base. 8.71-13 million sounds reasonable as the total base of Linux. This isn't including servers remember and I am fairly sure that OSX does in fact outnumber us considerably.

That good enough? Oh and OP I think your poll numbers are a bit off...

[juxtaposed]

1.34% of 650 million (I'll assume high number for best results possible) translates to 8.71 million Linux Desktop users. 2% of same base is 13 million.


Didn't Mark Shuttleworth say there were 8-10 milion ubunu users?


but since the question is about desktops, no idea, probably atleast 50% if not more, but thats just a guess, you have to consider the fact that not all countrys care so much about microsh*te, e.g holland are very open source friendly, but in my honest opinion, no idea...

I very much doubt linux has a 50% marketshare in desktops :P

[ddrichardson]

w3schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp) suggests their log files over the last few years indicate 3.4% this year (down from 3.6% in December 2006).

It is very difficult to really accurately get a figure for desktop usage however, as has already been suggested: dual booting, surfing in work time, multiple computers in one household, etc...

As for the number of machines connected to the Internet from which this statistic can be applied, I have seen a statistics suggesting 600 to 605.6 million. This may be based on calculation of available IP addresses however which is probably inaccurate for a number of reasons - reserved addresses, addresses that would never be used, etc.

I would guess though, based on that that there are approximately 21 million users on Linux connected to the Internet.

[starcraft.man]

Didn't Mark Shuttleworth say there were 8-10 milion ubunu users?


Not sure, you certain it wasn't maybe Linux users in total?

Anyway, getting good desktop numbers are hard. One thing is certain both OSX and Linux are incredibly small when stacked up against Windows XP >.<.

[Yfrwlf]

Not sure, you certain it wasn't maybe Linux users in total?

Anyway, getting good desktop numbers are hard. One thing is certain both OSX and Linux are incredibly small when stacked up against Windows XP >.<.

That's just North American website statistics, where Microsoft has it's biggest stronghold. W3Counter and others are American companies. That means if they are monitoring web hits to a bunch of American sites, that leaves out South America, Africa, Europe, Asia, etc etc, to a pretty large degree I would say. It's these companies where Linux use is much greater.

I think "the number of Linux users" is astronomical if you included everything running Linux of course, but with just desktop use, in the entire world, including all the places where the governments and other organizations have switched over to Linux, I'd guess 50-100 million. I think I could actually add up hard statistics of desktops running, or switching to, Linux, and get into that range someplace.

But yes, impossible to know for sure of course.

[Kernel Sanders]

Necromancing! :KS