OS' Market Shares

[BrokeBody]

I would love to see the day when Linux Market Shares are going to be at least equal to Windows Market Shares. Am I gonna live long enough to see that day? :-|

http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/468/clientosmarketsharejulyui9.png http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/6946/linuxmarketsharetrend20ip1.png

http://img518.imageshack.us/img518/4120/windowsosmarketsharetrebr4.png http://img179.imageshack.us/img179/7327/macosmacintelmarketsharlw4.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system#Today

:(

[vexorian]

I'd love the market share to be 15%

no need for extreme numbers like windows'

[Warren Watts]

I don't know how real numbers for Linux can even be determined, considering the number of Open Source Linux distros available for free download.

How can an accurate determination of who is actively using Linux even be determined?

[smoker]

i don't know where you got those figures, but i would say they show an extreme underestimate for linux - 0.75% as of july 07! wtf!

[DimitrisC]

What is Nintendo Wii doing in the OS shares???

[vexorian]

0,75% is not an underestimate .

you should see it as some sort of total number of PCs and total number of people using only Linux + total licenses SOLD by MS...

[Quillz]

Linux will never have market share anywhere close to Windows.

[BrokeBody]

How can an accurate determination of who is actively using Linux even be determined?


Every ISP have OS recognition script. Even I put it on my website (http://www.stefanmarkic.com/), so I always know which operating system my visitors are running. Probably this forum also has that script. You can easily have accurate information. All you need to do is to get online to be recognized. :p



i don't know where you got those figures


Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operating_system#Today

[smoker]

0,75% is not an underestimate .

you should see it as some sort of total number of PCs and total number of people using only Linux + total licenses SOLD by MS...

what's the total number of licenses sold got to do with it? how many have been screwed into buying more than one windows license, or bought a vista pc, then upgraded it to xp? whatever, but there are probably many more licenses sold, than are being used.

[@trophy]

Yeah, the market for operating systems ceased to be a functioning market a long long time ago. Short of government intervention (and they've already made it painfully clear they're not going to do anything important about it), Microsoft's monopoly isn't going anywhere. It could turn out that Vista+1 will raid your fridge, run over your dog, sleep with your girlfriend, and sign you up for gay pr0n mailing lists, and people will still buy it, because it's what they know. That's just what you have to deal with when you use a computer, you know?

There are things Linux could do to make this less so, but Linux isn't currently doing them. This will continue until M$ squashes us, we wake up, or the government decides to hold an ACTUAL anti-trust case against them this time.

[M$LOL]

Every ISP have OS recognition script. Even I put it on my website (http://www.stefanmarkic.com/), so I always know which operating system my visitors are running. Probably this forum also has that script. You can easily have accurate information.

Does that rely on Javascript being enabled?

[kanem]

Those numbers for Linux are surely wrong and yes, underestimated. For one thing, there are other sites, like W3Schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp) which put Linux usage at 3.4%. For another thing, those numbers show Linux usage more than doubling since January. Twice as many people use Linux as 7 months ago? I doubt it.

[Quillz]

what's the total number of licenses sold got to do with it? how many have been screwed into buying more than one windows license, or bought a vista pc, then upgraded it to xp? whatever, but there are probably many more licenses sold, than are being used.
It doesn't matter how many licensese are actually being used, all that matters is how many have been sold.

[kanem]

From that Wiki article quoted:

The use of the term "Market Share" can be ambiguous in this context. The article Market Share gives two definitions which are generally considered equivalent in the business sphere: percentage of sales (A's Market share is A's Sales divided by all sales of that product), vs percentage of market served. In the case of operating systems, percentage installed base (number of CPUs with the OS installed, divided by the total number of CPUs) would approximately measure percentage of market served, but that number is not directly measured by anyone. Since most versions of Unix are free, the percentage of sales is effectively zero.
So that 0.75 is the Linux's share in sales, not in number of sales, but in how much money people have paid for it. So not even close to estimating actual usage.

[Warren Watts]

From that Wiki article quoted:

So that 0.75 is the Linux's share in sales, not in number of sales, but in how much money people have paid for it. So not even close to estimating actual usage.

I guess that's sort of what I was trying to get at in my earlier post...A considerable number of Linux distros are free, and therefore wouldn't even be included in "Market Share" according to their definition.

[Darkhack]

Linux will never have market share anywhere close to Windows.

Just like in 1991 how Linux was just a hobby and in 10 years we'd all be running GNU on our Sun SPARC workstations?

[BrokeBody]

Does that rely on Javascript being enabled?

When i say "script", it doesn't have to ba only JavaScript. ;) Scripts can be done in ASP, PHP, Ruby, Python... ;)

[BrokeBody]

Those numbers for Linux are surely wrong and yes, underestimated. For one thing, there are other sites, like W3Schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp) which put Linux usage at 3.4%. For another thing, those numbers show Linux usage more than doubling since January. Twice as many people use Linux as 7 months ago? I doubt it.

3.4%

Now there's a big difference. :mrgreen:

:(

[Swarms]

Just like in 1991 how Linux was just a hobby and in 10 years we'd all be running GNU on our Sun SPARC workstations?

Except, it's now a lifestyle!

[jrusso2]

I doubt you will ever see Linux on the desktop at more then 5% thats about the best it can hope for.

[vexorian]

I can see it acquiring 15% in a mid term future, of course mid term future means a lot of years... , perhaps not on statistics though cause it is very hard to measure Linux penetration.

[BrokeBody]

OK, the first statistics (http://ubuntuforums.org/showpost.php?p=3193958&postcount=1) was for the Market Share sales, and here's for the usage :roll:

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/6201/osplatformstatisticsbu0.png

http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp

:(

[vexorian]

wow is that stat legit? I mean, almost as much as vista, and Mac beats vista? These sound really cool actually, use this face: :)

[Depressed Man]

What is Nintendo Wii doing in the OS shares???

I'm guessing because they use some browser script to identify what OS you are running. And because you can access the internet with the Opera browser on the Nintendo Wii. Well if they surf to the sites they show up on the radar.

Though oddly the PS3 and I think the 360 as well can also surf the internet (as well as the DS and PSP). So I'm guessing they're just not showing up enough to make a mark? The iPhone too.

[igknighted]

I'm guessing because they use some browser script to identify what OS you are running. And because you can access the internet with the Opera browser on the Nintendo Wii. Well if they surf to the sites they show up on the radar.

Though oddly the PS3 and I think the 360 as well can also surf the internet (as well as the DS and PSP). So I'm guessing they're just not showing up enough to make a mark? The iPhone too.

The iphone runs on an embedded OSX I'm pretty sure, just like linux runs on many phones now too. I wonder if they identify the same as the non-embedded versions in tests like this?

[mech7]

Linux will only get larget market share if it has something better to offer.. and i don't mean that it's free. I mean about making it easier and fun to use it. and letting people do as much (actually more) then on their windows machine.. else it is not going to happen.

[BDNiner]

Does this study take into account the number of illegal copies of XP and 2000? I would hope for linux to reach a share of 10% by 2010

[BrokeBody]

Does this study take into account the number of illegal copies of XP and 2000?

Maybe both, but it doesn't matter. The only thing that matters is that a lot of people use it.

[kopinux]

i dont expect linux to dominate the PC market.

but it is expected for linux to dominate other markets; supercomputers, servers, robotics, smartphones, home appliance, special hardwares, military machines.

though if you want to take down windows it is easier to target the hardware PC rather than the software, there are potential competition out there that could put PC market into decline along with the software on it, such as

smartphones < phones are becoming like computer nowadays - a lot of major phone companies have linux project like motorolla and nokia.
small, power efficient, cheap, linux computers (like those olpc)
school and office computers (like those $99 computers)
cell computer < this is an emerging new type of multi-core computer similar to blade server and ps3, we would see cell desktop computers running linux soon.
videogame consoles < you can now install linux on it
robotics < potential to replace the PC even MS says it themselves, or they didnt? MS is only starting with robotics, linux already has humanoids.
embedded < every hardware that has a chip. it includes dvd players and high def tvs.

im even planning to scrap my old PC and buy a PS3 and use it as my computer and run ubuntu rather than buy new PC +vista. (i said this before)
http://www.psubuntu.com

[macogw]

Market share doesn't matter. What we care about (since licenses for this stuff aren't sold) is called "installed base."

[M$LOL]

When i say "script", it doesn't have to ba only JavaScript. ;) Scripts can be done in ASP, PHP, Ruby, Python... ;)

I know, but I'd like to see an example of a php script that can do that, since it is server-side, whereas JS is clientside, so I'd imagine that doing it in JS would be easier.