Ubuntu's Death Rattle?

[jjbean]

I ran across this blog post a few minutes ago. What do you all think?

http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2

Sorry if this has already been posted. I did a search and could not find it.

[Celegorm]

Looks like FUD to me.

[Xzallion]

This blogger doesn't understand how Canonical and Ubuntu make money from Ubuntu Linux. The desktop version isn't meant to earn revenue, its meant to be a free operating system for the people to use, and Canonical makes very little money from desktop support. Instead, Canonical is focusing on selling support to large companies and organizations that would require the support to always be there, for servers and business desktops.

Ubuntu to Canonical is like Fedora to Red Hat, its a nice thing but it isn't their money maker. At least that is how I understand it. So that article is nothing but FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt).

[teet]

He seems to be talking out of his ...well... you know. I would give his argument some serious consideration if he had some real data to back up what he's talking about.

I'm fairly certain that microsoft has never turned a profit with the Xbox line yet...and I assume their zune product line is in the red as well. Thus, by his logic Microsoft must be doomed!!!!11

-teet

[argie]

Oh wait, oh wait. BSD is DYING!

[jjbean]

Well glad to see I am not the only one who thought the blogger was full of @$*! .

[Polygon]

Somehow, i think mark shuttleworth, knows a little more about making money then this random guy with a blog.

[Footissimo]

I Mr Shuttleworth must have stolen his ball or something when they were little, as the bloke really (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-endgame) has lots (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2) and lots (http://www.devside.net/blog/linux-dell-pipe-dream) of issues (http://www.devside.net/blog/linux-dell-pipe-dream-2) with Ubuntu (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying)....judging from the entries from his blog over the last few months!

[der_joachim]

Is he perhaps making an elaborate if rather bad joke?

[kevinlyfellow]

He says Canonical is losing tons and tons of money, but does not site any sources. I wouldn't doubt it if Canonical has not made a profit yet, but as Mark Shuttleworth said, it is going to take some time before it can be determined if Canonical will actually start making money.

Further, Ubuntu may be popular with the community right now, but it is in the corporations that is important in its business model. They are not losing money despite having so many users, they are losing money because they have made only small inroads into businesses (if they are losing money at all). They face big competition there (Windows, Suse, RHEL). Canonical has done a great job planting the seeds, we will see if businesses will start adopting Ubuntu.

Finally, I don't see how making a deal with Dell that Dell initiated is a sign of that Canonical is going under. Actually, it kinda tells me the opposite. Dell needed a corporate entity to trust and they chose Canonical. They could very well have decided to send support to a 3rd party. http://www.ubuntu.com/support/commercial/marketplace/northernamerica

I suspect that this blogger is one of the Ubuntu haters out there or just a general FUDer.

[ComplexNumber]

i think the author has been eating too many conspiracy pills.

[JAPrufrock]

Not really FUD. Stupid would be an appropriate adjective.

[starcraft.man]

Uhhhh.... no. Guy just wants to rail against Ubuntu methinks, especially given how fixated he seems to be on us Dying, I uh, don't think its happening, certainly not given how many new people I seem to be helping lately daily :).

[KIAaze]

This makes me wanna have a Dell for Christmas. :)

[zugu]

However, he's right about one thing: if all this Dell thing crumbles, no other OEM will ship Ubuntu ever, or at least for a long time. If Dell can't, then who can?

[steveneddy]

The website in general is a great site with detailed open sourced offerings for Windows. I think that they may have their head kind of in the right direction, but I think that this blogger is a Windows fan boy through and through.

I did leave my comments there, like i was gonna just read this FUD and not post, but I also don't think that the blogger made a very convincing argument.

But, these are HIS comments and if he did it in the US of A, this is one of our freedoms. I love the right to free speech and use it all the time, like right now, for instance.

Go back there (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2) and tell me what you think of my comments.

-SE

*and did anyone else here leave a posting?

[joriad]

Just to make a blog like that tells me he is running scared (maybe a M$ investor or Bill Gates himself). Ubuntu is slowly but surely taking windows users away from M$, it pulled me away from the dark side. Once Linux gets a foot hold into Dell we will see a major change in the rate at which M$ looses customer base and Ubuntu gains customer base, all because Linux driver support will increase sharply. Not to mention the utter failure of Vista, which I have on my system as well (and am not impressed with what so ever). M$ and die hard Windows users are afraid of the future, I think us Ubuntu and Linux users should reassure them that the future does hold a place for them and we (Ubuntu users) will help them in any way we can to make that conversion to Linux when the time comes. But we also must remember to embrace their freedom of choice and accept the decisions they make. And that is what Ubuntu is about.

[esaym]

I like the one I read a few weeks ago about how it is a conspiracy by MS to get ubuntu on dell machines. Since they won't be able to play media files, users will be disappointed and come running back to MS and linux will never be a problems again. :p

[Ebuntor]

Besides the point whether Canonical is losing money or not does it really matter?
IIRC Mark Shuttleworth has said many times making profit with Ubuntu isn't a (high) priority for him.

I understand it would be pretty bad if they were losing millions but as long as some profit it wouldn't be a problem, as I understand it. At least that the impression Mr. Shuttleworth gives, Ubuntu being is “dream” to spread free software etc.

Or am I being really ignorant right now?

EDIT:
So that article is nothing but FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt).
Ah, so that's what FUD means, thanks. :)

[joriad]

The website in general is a great site with detailed open sourced offerings for Windows. I think that they may have their head kind of in the right direction, but I think that this blogger is a Windows fan boy through and through.

I did leave my comments there, like i was gonna just read this FUD and not post, but I also don't think that the blogger made a very convincing argument.

But, these are HIM comments and if he did it in the US of A, this si one of our freedoms. I love the right to free speech and use it all the time, like right now, for instance.

Go back there (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2) and tell me what you think of my comments.

-SE

*and did anyone else here leave a posting?

Your post was excellent, except for this part
It may not be the big bang that some people expect
I think it will be the Big Bang of the computer industry, it may not be felt right away, but it will be felt and felt hard. Everything else you said is exactly what I think. We have been asking for more peripheral support and we will get it through Dell. It's a good time to be alive.

[joriad]

I like the one I read a few weeks ago about how it is a conspiracy by MS to get ubuntu on dell machines. Since they won't be able to play media files, users will be disappointed and come running back to MS and linux will never be a problems again. :p

Their logic chip is flawed.

[starcraft.man]

Their logic chip is flawed.

You mean MS' logic chip is MIA :p.

[joriad]

You mean MS' logic chip is MIA :p.

Or DOA. Either way.

[steveneddy]

Your post was excellent, except for this part
I think it will be the Big Bang of the computer industry, it may not be felt right away, but it will be felt and felt hard. Everything else you said is exactly what I think.

I just feel like it will build up at a steady pace, but not hit so hard, like a huge explosion.

I do agree that Ubuntu will continue to be very successful, especially with the deal with Dell, but I wouldn't anticipate a hugely rapid uptake in Ubuntu PC's being sold through Dell, but it will rise steadily at a constant pace throughout the year.

I have looked at the site and will be buying a Dell laptop towards the end of the year, myself. I would like to give it time to get any bugs worked out and get the driver situation worked over a littel better before i spend my money with them.

[insane_alien]

ubuntu doesn't have a death rattle. its designed so that if it ever gets killed (pretty impossible) it goes out with a bang and drags M$ down with it.

[jjbean]

The website in general is a great site with detailed open sourced offerings for Windows. I think that they may have their head kind of in the right direction, but I think that this blogger is a Windows fan boy through and through.

I did leave my comments there, like i was gonna just read this FUD and not post, but I also don't think that the blogger made a very convincing argument.

But, these are HIM comments and if he did it in the US of A, this si one of our freedoms. I love the right to free speech and use it all the time, like right now, for instance.

Go back there (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2) and tell me what you think of my comments.

-SE

*and did anyone else here leave a posting?

Your comments on that blog are worded very well.
(However I do wish your post on that blog would have been a wee bit more rude. ;) )

[maagimies]

I disagree with the article, but some of those commenters are hilarious, although a tad embarrasing.
# Ram Sambamurthy Says:
May 27th, 2007 at 1:25 am

It’s clear that the ******* who wrote this article is brain dead. Can’t you guys who are defending Linux see the title of this blog? It has “.NET” in it.

Stop wasting your time guys. Time will tell. Let this author ******* use his hands to wank instead.

Yup, a mature reply x)
If you can't post your statements without insults, a lot of your credibility is lost, if not all.

[Bachstelze]

Those comments are all it deserves.

[kevinlyfellow]

However, he's right about one thing: if all this Dell thing crumbles, no other OEM will ship Ubuntu ever, or at least for a long time. If Dell can't, then who can?

I disagree. We just have to work our way up through smaller vendors. When major oems realize that the small guys are becoming big enough, they will offer linux too.

[DoctorMO]

poor fellow is very confused.

[ticopelp]

Somehow, i think mark shuttleworth, knows a little more about making money then this random guy with a blog.

Quoted for truth.

[Ozor Mox]

If the Linux zealots are bad, the Linux doomsday predictors are so very much worse.

Seriously, what is it with people making wild, controversial and largely unfounded predictions about the future of GNU, Linux and/or [insert specific distribution here] as though they can see in to the future? People seem to post links to them several times a week at least.

[shen-an-doah]

One major thing that he seems to miss is that it would be pretty much impossible for Ubuntu to really "die", as it were. I mean, say the worst happens and Mark stops putting the money in and Canonical stops supporting it completely. That still means the code's available and it can easily be picked up by anyone else. That's the beauty of OSS, it can't die, it just evolves. Hell even software projects that are no longer maintained at all can still be used, etc.

If MS or Apple went under, that would be it unless some company bought all their code off them or something.

Also, Ubuntu is a pretty young distribution compared to the big players (SUSE and RedHat are 10-15 years old, compared to Ubuntu's 2-3), it's not gonna suddenly be taking over the world's Linux needs. What is likely will happen is some businesses will be looking at what operating system to run (either because their contract with RH/Novell/etc ends, or because they're a new business) and they'll look at Linux options and one of their IT guys will go "I use Ubuntu at home and it's pretty damn good. I could train everyone to use it pretty quick" and they'll go with Ubuntu...

[Tundro Walker]

Don't listen to that bozo that wrote that article. Like most people, he's thinking short-term turn-around. Shuttleworth has already said, many times in fact, that he's looking at the long-term outcome. Ubuntu is a long-term investment. It's meant to get more and more folks using Linux, and when more folks do, more companies will spring up to cater to them, and that's where Shuttleworth is going to receive his pay-back. He's investing in and looking to draw profit from the culture that springs up around Linux/Ubuntu.

And, this makes sense. You can't topple the giant (Microsoft), unless you debase their OS. The only way he can do that is by making one for free...that's better! When it catches on, which will take years, it'll switch some of the tide. And by then, all of Shuttleworth's other investment around Linux/Ubuntu will pay off in great quantity.

Personally, I think MS should have done this a LONG time ago. IE: "Everyone can HAVE Windows for free! But, you have to pay for support, MS Office, etc." That would make all of their customers shut up about all the bugs and viruses. You got bugs and viruses? So...you're getting an OS for FREE! Stop complaining! But, alas, MS didn't do that...they're greedy. And now Shuttleworth comes in with Canonical and that business model, and all these short-sighted Doom-Sayers think the ship is sinking because Canonical hasn't made a profit in 10 days. So what!? Do your freakin' homework before writing an article. If you HAD done your homework, you'd realize Shuttleworth wasn't intending to profit off Ubuntu...his goal for Ubuntu is for it to only be self-sustaining (IE: make enough profit to run itself), so he won't have to sink any more money into it.

I think Dell's smelled what the Rock is cooking, and they've decided to give the "new kid on the block" a shot, because much like some upstart mafiosa's, they're coming in with moxy and smarts. Microsoft's biggest weakness is that it's the big kid on the block...and ego makes for a huge blind-spot.

[Ebuntor]

And now Shuttleworth comes in with Canonical and that business model, and all these short-sighted Doom-Sayers think the ship is sinking because Canonical hasn't made a profit in 10 days. So what!? Do your freakin' homework before writing an article. If you HAD done your homework, you'd realize Shuttleworth wasn't intending to profit off Ubuntu...his goal for Ubuntu is for it to only be self-sustaining (IE: make enough profit to run itself), so he won't have to sink any more money into it.


Ah ok so I was right about profit not being one of Shuttleworth's goals, thanks for answering my question (I asked about this a few posts back). :smile:
He really is an idealist, sure is cool of him. Most people who start their own business and make a lot of money become greedy and want more and more.

Excellent post btw, I totaly agree with you.

[aysiu]

Somehow, i think mark shuttleworth, knows a little more about making money then this random guy with a blog. Exactly.

Ever see An Evening with Kevin Smith: Evening Harder?

Kevin Smith talks about how some guy on a message board was going on and on about how Kevin Smith was on his way out and his movies weren't making any money. Smith then goes on to explain that the box office isn't where his movies make money--it's in the DVDs, and those are making plenty of profit. He then makes a jab at how "internet guy" thinks he knows more about how Hollywood works than Kevin Smith does.

Well, if "blog guy" thinks he knows more about making money than Mark Shuttleworth does, maybe "blog guy" can throw away $20 million on space tourism and have money left over to start up a company like Canonical, too.

[x86asm]

How are childish comments, and a zero attention span, helping to "debunk" this?

When someone posts sound reasoning (http://www.devside.net/articles/ubuntu-linux-dying) and a valid analysis (http://www.devside.net/blog/ubuntu-dying-2) of the situation -- right or wrong -- break it down with logic and reasoning skills, don't lower yourself with the "fanboy" mentality.

[aysiu]

How is that "valid analysis"?

[fuscia]

how much money does gentoo make?

[x86asm]

How is that "valid analysis"?

Okay... This is where you should use reason, and logic, to prove the following wrong...

Canonical is in business. It is not a non-profit.

Shuttleworth has made statements that he is floating the bills in hopes of turning a profit with Canonical, or at least generating enough revenue to make Ubuntu self-sufficient. Canonical site states they employ 90+ people, and their sole revenue stream is tied to Ubuntu. 10-30 million has been spent. Nothing returned.

Canonical wanted to make money on the desktop at 1st. This was never possible. We tried, they tried, millions of users, NOTHING.

Canonical then stated they wanted to make money on the server... As far as I can tell, this ambition was dropped quickly. Call it barriers to entry, or whatever you will.

Canonical now wants to make money on the corporate desktop/workstation... Again, might not be possible.

What's left? Dell?

Dell expects to sell 20,000 Ubuntu systems. This is NOTHING. Less than 1% of the volume they move.

Check the DELL support forums, people are trying to install iTunes and no one is even able to tell them why it won't work. When sale are pathetic and/or people start shipping systems back, this will not help Ubuntu in any way.

[x86asm]

how much money does gentoo make?

Probably nothing. Didn't the original developer drop the project because it put him 40,000+ in debt. And then when he came back, the new developers chastised him for no reason at all to the point where he left the same day he joined back up?

[ticopelp]

Probably nothing. Didn't the original developer drop the project because it put him 40,000+ in debt. And then when he came back, the new developers chastised him for no reason at all to the point where he left the same day he joined back up?

Having read that entire drama one evening when I was bored, I wouldn't say it was "for no reason at all," but he did leave very quickly. Also, as I understand it, he went to work for Microsoft in the hopes he could try to sell them on OSS, not because he was in debt -- although it could certainly be both.

[Footissimo]

Check the DELL support forums, people are trying to install iTunes and no one is even able to tell them why it won't work.


I presume you mean this one individual (http://www.dellcommunity.com/supportforums/board/message?board.id=sw_linux&thread.id=9613)? I am willing to bet (judging from her posting history) that she has simply posted on the wrong forum (she appears to have a windows system).

[x86asm]

Thats the one, maybe she is confused. I don't know.

Here is another one, a taste of the future...

HI all, I've been a windows user all my life, and Linux as caught my attention. I was wondering which version of Linus is most user friendly for someone like me. Im not all that techinologically advanced or anything. Also, do programs for windows work on linux? would Games work? would web browsers work?

[steveneddy]

how much money does gentoo make?

Not much. In 2005 they took inless than $6000.00 US dollars.

[JNowka]

Ubuntu in its death-rattles? I think not. Hell I know the guys in Redmond are cursing the names Canonical and Ubuntu as we speak. Hell check out this (http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,131935-page,13/article.html) top 100 list put out by PC-World. Ubuntu comes in #16, before any Microsoft Product. LOL. Hell, MS Vista isn't even on the list. Sadly this doesn't surprise me. Meanwhile Canonical has made many business ventures with Dell, Linspire, VMware, SugarCRM, CNR, etc. trying to set Ubuntu up for the future. They having been working hard to get Training facilities to train people to be Ubuntu Certified. This isn't a sign of a dying OS.

To me Canonical is shaping up to aim for the server market as well. This, as everyone knows, is where the money is when it comes to Linux. I personally expect to see Ubuntu being focused 'just as much' on the server side of things within the next year.

Ubuntu isn't giving its death-rattle, the rattle this guy hears is that of a rattle-snake preparing to strike at its unfortunate victim.(Microsoft)

[kevinlyfellow]

10-30 million has been spent. Nothing returned.


Are you the author of the article? Can you site a source on that? I think its pretty safe to assume that Canonical is still in the red, but how can you say "nothing returned"? I'm sure their concern is that they are gaining business at a steady pace so that they can turn a profit eventually, but you can't expect a young startup (with heavy investment) to make tons of profits in a fringe market. I'm sure everyone knew this from the start.



Canonical wanted to make money on the desktop at 1st. This was never possible. We tried, they tried, millions of users, NOTHING.


Well, you have a fraction of the linux market using Ubuntu. Current linux users are mostly self-sufficient. Canonical does want to make money, but they can not do it until they reach a point were average/business users are using the software (since they are the ones that need support). Their deal with Dell seems to mark the beginning of the market you are talking about. Secondly, I feel that Canonical's model is best designed for business adoption, where businesses pay for support when using Ubuntu Linux. The timescale for business adoption is much longer than that of the typical user. Considering they have made only one LTS so far, businesses have had one chance to adopt Ubuntu.



Canonical then stated they wanted to make money on the server... As far as I can tell, this ambition was dropped quickly. Call it barriers to entry, or whatever you will.

Can you site a source that Canonical said that? They still offer the server edition...

Interest in Ubuntu is genuinely in the desktop side because Ubuntu offers nothing special for the server that I know of. I suspect (no sources though) they have a server edition just so that if a company decides they want to move to Ubuntu, they can be assured that their will be compatibility with the workstations and servers. Of course we know it shouldn't be a big deal, but not everyone does. They could also be offering the server edition because they want to make more money in the short run. Either way, there is no evidence that suggests that everything is going horribly wrong. Theirs no need for Canonical to be a one trick pony. They can do both desktop and server, just like microsoft and redhat and novell...



Canonical now wants to make money on the corporate desktop/workstation... Again, might not be possible.

I've been using ubuntu since warty, and I assumed that this was the case from the start. No one in their right mind would think that an "only for the consumer" desktop offered for free to a group of people known to be self-sufficient could make money. I'm sure this was their intention all along, as well as aiming for average joe/jane users in the long run. I doubt anyone believed that bug #1 was going to be resolved in just a few years. We are making good progress on that bug, so why quit when its starting to look like the investment may pay off?



Dell expects to sell 20,000 Ubuntu systems. This is NOTHING. Less than 1% of the volume they move.

Dell's intentions are different than Canonical's. Dell wants to make money by creating a larger fanbase, Canonical wants to make money by selling support anywhere that it can. While 20,000 is a small number for Dell, if Canonical is in as bad of shape as you claim, I'm sure that it is a win for Canonical. Besides, the Linux community is growing and I do not doubt that Dell and others will start shipping larger volumes. And besides, Dell decided to go to Canonical for them to offer support. Did you expect Canonical to say no?

Now I respect the fact that you are worried about the future of Ubuntu, but if worse comes to worse and Canonical fails, it just means that their business model has failed. But, the strength of Linux doesn't deteriorate (in general) and we have more funding than just through Canonical. If Canonical is just a quirk, then so be it. We will reap the benefits and move on. Linux is here to stay and the improvements that Ubuntu has made for us will stay in linux. Just think about how Ubuntu gave Debian a kick in the behind, or how it has brought a lot of attention (and new users) to linux.

Canonical has not been around long enough for them to establish financial viability. This company is a bit unusual in that it didn't have to work its way up, it was invented by a multimillionaire. A large investment is not going to thrown away. If Mark Shuttleworth needs to change the business model, I'm certain that he will do so before he gives up on Canonical. If Canonical is going to fail, I am assured that it is going to obvious.

I feel your argument can be summed up like this: Canonical is currently dependent on Mark Shuttleworth's investment (probably true). Canonical is not seeing anyone care about receiving support from it (a claim without sources). Mark Shuttleworth is likely to quit funding Canonical before it is self sustaining after he has put so much money into it (a claim without sources).

[iceportal]

Oh wait, oh wait. BSD is DYING!

Priceless.

The number of BSD users is dwarfed by number of Linux users, not to mention all the other Windows/Mac users...

But BSD still chugs on, unabated...

[jiminycricket]

Okay... This is where you should use reason, and logic, to prove the following wrong...

Canonical is in business. It is not a non-profit.

Shuttleworth has made statements that he is floating the bills in hopes of turning a profit with Canonical, or at least generating enough revenue to make Ubuntu self-sufficient. Canonical site states they employ 90+ people, and their sole revenue stream is tied to Ubuntu. 10-30 million has been spent. Nothing returned.

Canonical wanted to make money on the desktop at 1st. This was never possible. We tried, they tried, millions of users, NOTHING.

Canonical then stated they wanted to make money on the server... As far as I can tell, this ambition was dropped quickly. Call it barriers to entry, or whatever you will.

Canonical now wants to make money on the corporate desktop/workstation... Again, might not be possible.

What's left? Dell?

Dell expects to sell 20,000 Ubuntu systems. This is NOTHING. Less than 1% of the volume they move.

Check the DELL support forums, people are trying to install iTunes and no one is even able to tell them why it won't work. When sale are pathetic and/or people start shipping systems back, this will not help Ubuntu in any way.


I think it's been stated since the start that Canonical would make (some) money on the ecosystem, no? Being the "canonical" Linux distribution?

BTW this is an interesting thread and link, so thanks all for posting.

[SoulinEther]

The success of any Linux distribution is not observed in how many users it claims; rather, a distribution is successful if it has pulled several Windows and Mac OS users. (though I've experimented with Linux before, nothing has kept me at all like Ubuntu)

Dell has sold few Linux distributions. If people buy Ubuntu desktops and laptops and give them a try, those are, or were, Windows customers.....

At this point, I don't see Mac OSX facing any "steep competition". I highly doubt Steve Jobs is going to negotiate with Canonical a deal, installing Ubuntu on their computers as a (cheaper) alternative to MacOSX. Unless you can purchase their OS and install it on 50% of all PCs (and not Macs), there's little way Canonical's Ubuntu, or any distribution for that matter, can effectively pull Mac users.

Doom-rattle or not, this is one of the most effective methods of inviting more users to Ubuntu that Canonical could have chosen.

... oh and no offense to ... anybody, but I think if I'm going to buy a Dell, I'll buy their Windows edition. I'll reject the EULA, format the hard drive, and go with Linux. Screw the $50 I'd have to pay for an Ubuntu system.

[shen-an-doah]

... oh and no offense to ... anybody, but I think if I'm going to buy a Dell, I'll buy their Windows edition. I'll reject the EULA, format the hard drive, and go with Linux. Screw the $50 I'd have to pay for an Ubuntu system.

Apparently the Ubuntu Dells are actually cheaper. Plus there's the advantage of having hardware that will work OOTB almost guaranteed.

[zugu]

I disagree. We just have to work our way up through smaller vendors. When major oems realize that the small guys are becoming big enough, they will offer linux too.

Excuse me? Ubuntu is already in the bandwagon with the big fish. Dell is not a small vendor at all. If the deal proves to be a failure, there's no way for OEMs, big or small, to offer Ubuntu again.

With Ubuntu as the leading Linux distribution, the ripple effect of a possible fiasco would spread throughout the Linux world and the scars would be visible for a long time.

Of course, this is just one of the possible outcomes. However, Canonical and Mark are on high stakes.

[SoulinEther]

Apparently the Ubuntu Dells are actually cheaper. Plus there's the advantage of having hardware that will work OOTB almost guaranteed.

Well where's the thrill in everything working? It's very enjoyable to gauge the production and evolution of an operating system in how much of my hardware is functional. And besides, if I ever find I need Windows to run some program... it's always there.

"Excuse me? Ubuntu is already in the bandwagon with the big fish. Dell is not a small vendor at all. If the deal proves to be a failure, there's no way for OEMs, big or small, to offer Ubuntu again."

I think he meant if after Dell Ubuntu needs to pick itself back up.

[brim4brim]

From Blog:
admin Says:
May 24th, 2007 at 11:35 pm

I do realize that Mr. Shuttleworth has an impressive bankroll behind him, but losing [or throwing away] money can only be fashionable for a limited time.


Probably why he plans to make a profit at some point.



This Dell/Ubuntu failure-in-the-making will be akin to hitting a brick wall. There is no where to go from this point, every method of breaking even has been expended. When you run/fund a project that you KNOW will not go anywhere, you tend to loose interest very quickly.


LOL, said nothing here!



Yes, Mr. Shuttleworth has the means to float Canonical/Ubuntu for a long time — but that is not the question. The question was: can desktop Linux be capitalized on via providing support contracts. This has been answered: No. Now the question is how long will Mr. Shuttleworth fund a dead project… Remember, Ubuntu is a result of a 60-head paid team that does everything from marketing to development.


I disagree that it is a dead project. How many users does it have again? How much is contributed by the community? I think Ubuntu can be funded by support over time but the reality is home users don't buy support.

The overall idea of Desktop Linux is business, schoools, colleges. Their support contracts is where the money will be generated and to a larger extent server Linux.

step 1) build home user base
step 2) get installed into colleges/schools/businesses due to popularity on desktop and cost effectiveness of the solution along with stability
step 3) profit

I think the blog owner thinks its more of a under pants gnome system:
step 1) collect underpants / build user base
step 2) ???
step 3) profit

He doesn't think Mark has a vision for where this project is going in the long term. Foolish if you consider Mark is a billionaire! He might know one or two things about business that the blog owner doesn't.

[kevinlyfellow]

Excuse me? Ubuntu is already in the bandwagon with the big fish. Dell is not a small vendor at all. If the deal proves to be a failure, there's no way for OEMs, big or small, to offer Ubuntu again.

With Ubuntu as the leading Linux distribution, the ripple effect of a possible fiasco would spread throughout the Linux world and the scars would be visible for a long time.

Of course, this is just one of the possible outcomes. However, Canonical and Mark are on high stakes.

Sorry, that was bit out of context. I was referring to a response that said that if Dell failed, we would have no way of recovering oem support. If dell fails with the linux offering, then we will have to work our way up through smaller vendors. Sorry about the confusion.

[Extreme Coder]

Sorry, that was bit out of context. I was referring to a response that said that if Dell failed, we would have no way of recovering oem support. If dell fails with the linux offering, then we will have to work our way up through smaller vendors. Sorry about the confusion.
Actually you are very correct. That's something that's keeping me worried. If this deal fails, then it will take more than 3-4 years for another vendor to try to do such a thing.
But Canonical and Dell definitely should've studied everything and shouldn't have ventured into this unless they're positive it will do them good.

[kevinlyfellow]

Actually you are very correct. That's something that's keeping me worried. If this deal fails, then it will take more than 3-4 years for another vendor to try to do such a thing.
But Canonical and Dell definitely should've studied everything and shouldn't have ventured into this unless they're positive it will do them good.

I was going to give a more thorough explanation on what I feel is going to happen but it was becoming a book. To sum up my feelings (and they may be different from yours), I was worried, but realized that Linux truly is an emerging market. If Dell's experiment fails (<< 20,000 machines sold), other OEMs may flinch, but they will not close their eyes. Linux is going to be undeniably better than the alternatives in a few years time, and its only going to take one good marketing push by anyone to break the dam.

Smaller OEMs in the meantime will fill our niche, and it may be that a small OEM is going to provide that marketing that is going to break the dam. Linux will be better than the alternatives for almost everyone very soon. Someone just will need to put up the flashing sign that says "Buy me!"

[zugu]

If the Dell deal proves to be a flop, the first thing Canonical and the whole community around Ubuntu should think about should be "why did it fail and what can we do to fix it?", not "where can we find other OEMs to deal with?".

Of course, we should wait and see what will happen in the near future. Maybe the partnership with Dell will be a success.

[brim4brim]

I can't believe how fast Ubuntu is progressing. There are still some things before it suitable to take on Windows and OSX directly. The biggest obstacle left is printer and peripheral's in general. Actually hardware wise, Linux has the respect of some major hardware producers like Intel, ATI, nVidia who produce Linux drivers.

It won't be long before companies can't actually afford to not produce Linux drivers. The cost of producing the driver will soon be less than they can make from releasing the hardware. Not that they'll all suddenly start doing it, OSX still doesn't have that but acceptable support is not far away.