Microsoft vs. Open Source: Who Will Win? [Archive]

poofyhairguy

June 13th, 2005, 06:16 PM

Hmmm.

Our main result is that in the absence of cost asymmetries and as long as Windows has a first-mover advantage (a larger installed base at time zero), Linux never displaces Windows of its leadership position. This result holds true regardless of the strength of Linux's demand-side learning. Furthermore, the result persists regardless of the intrinsically better design and potential differential value of Linux. In other words, harnessing demand-side learning more efficiently is not sufficient for Linux to win the competitive battle against Windows.

No surprise there. MS has a lot of momentum. I bet we will still be seeing XP machines in a decade.

But....

What is the reward if Linux would happen to beat out MS? Sure we get better drivers and hardcore gamers won't have to emulate, but we will also have to deal with malware of all kinds and lawsuits from those losing their position.

In the end, Linux might "win" as long as its taken seriously.

gylf

June 13th, 2005, 07:04 PM

To quote Gore Vidal, "You can't declare war against an abstract noun."

Vidal was referring to terrorism. I think the quote also applies to open source software. The article mentions that MS could never displace Linux, and of course it follows that MS could never really displace OSS in general.

Will Linux displace MS's market share? Maybe, maybe not. Will an open source OS someday displace MS's market share? No question, it will... someday.

brickbat

June 13th, 2005, 08:24 PM

I fear that those people that are foreseeing the displacement of Windows with Open Source are not considering the actions of MS. When you have that many billions, you can influence governments.

I think the most obvious scenario is that private firms "Apple/MS/Intel/AMD/etc" will take over all business on the internet. If you want to buy anything on the internet, you can only do it through them. If you want see the latest increment of flash on the website, only them.

That way, linux will be excluded from most desktops forever without any direct competition on features. They won't stop you running it. They will just force you to have their product to do the day to day stuff - buy stuff, fill in forms, watch content, etc.

Most people will just hear the sound byte that "oh, it's linux's fault because it is not keeping up." and will stick with proprietary so they can trade on ebay.

And I'm not even trying. If I were MS, I could think of several things like this in a morning without breaking a sweat.

eg,

All the spammers are coming from linux...If we exclude linux, we get rid of spammers!

What about viruses? I'll bet all the virus writers are using linux.

Don't get me started on terrorists! I'll bet they all use linux too.

Denial of Service? Linux

Foot odour? Linux

Baldness? Linux....ok that out because of Stevel Ballmer (or does he use Linux in his attic at night?)

ciao
bb

Also, the article is rubbish. The reason MS will stay in power is not the user base. Apple had a bigger user base than IBM in pc's. Big Deal. Just because someone is the biggest by far doesn't mean they cannot fall hard. Remember, precisely because they are so big, their cost base is enormous too. And if there is a swing, it is some company CEO that says, "ok shrink the company by 50%. We'll just adjust. No big deal."

Seti

June 13th, 2005, 08:52 PM

I think it really boils down to what users want. What are people using computers for? Lets face it, a really bit chunk of computer users out there only really want to play GAMES, browse the web a bit and send some email. I've said this before, but there's no harm in repeating it. Windows will continue to be popular because its cheezy. Most consumers are also very cheezy, this is why MacDonalds and Walmart are so popular. Plus most consumers also go for the big brand-names, doesn't matter whether it be shoes, jeans, soda, music or software.
Aside from serious applications in industry where linux really is a hot item, I think that on the desktop linux will only continue to gain strength slowly, but surely.
Actually, I can picture a greater level of linux acceptance in the next generation of affordable desktops. I mean, Walmart is already selling them from what I've read. So as an increasing number of distros cater to ease-of-use, more of these low-cost linux desktops will be making inroads.

pdk001

June 13th, 2005, 10:25 PM

at least M$ will own in 10years or so

ubuntu_demon

June 13th, 2005, 10:29 PM

it's an interesting article. But they should have made their models a bit more complex.

As soon as Longhorn gets released linux will become more interesting for users that don't have the hardware required to run Longhorn.

Also there's a big group of people who think computers have to run windows. A portion of them are easily "converted" to start using linux or an apple computer.

ubuntu_demon

June 13th, 2005, 10:35 PM

Hmmm.

No surprise there. MS has a lot of momentum. I bet we will still be seeing XP machines in a decade.

But....

What is the reward if Linux would happen to beat out MS? Sure we get better drivers and hardcore gamers won't have to emulate, but we will also have to deal with malware of all kinds and lawsuits from those losing their position.

In the end, Linux might "win" as long as its taken seriously.
I quote myself from this thread :

http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=41266

But I'm sure it's entirely possible to have a popular operating system without getting it's security as crappy as windows security.

It would be great if in a couple of years linux will be so big that hardware manufacturers have to work on open source drivers!

Takis

June 13th, 2005, 10:45 PM

Also there's a big group of people who think computers have to run windows. A portion of them are easily "converted" to start using linux or an apple computer.
Mmmm I dunno about "easily" myself having tried it out on a number of people. I'm still firmly in the belief that it needs to be taught in schools so that people aren't so distrusting of it (mainly due to unfamiliarity).

We need to keep in mind that the authors are mainly talking about the corporate world and that the article's written for that world (I mean look at the hosting web site!). They're looking at it from the viewpoint of what OS companies will use that will maximise their benefits and minimise losses, not from what end users will choose on the basis of preference. In this case Microsoft will win out nearly every time because what's the ratio of MSFT:Linux savvy users in the workspace? Rather hopelessly depressing. The cost to retrain people to Linux is totally infeasible.

Imagine if they already knew it because they were taught it in school.

ubuntu_demon

June 13th, 2005, 11:14 PM

Mmmm I dunno about "easily" myself having tried it out on a number of people. I'm still firmly in the belief that it needs to be taught in schools so that people aren't so distrusting of it (mainly due to unfamiliarity).

We need to keep in mind that the authors are mainly talking about the corporate world and that the article's written for that world (I mean look at the hosting web site!). They're looking at it from the viewpoint of what OS companies will use that will maximise their benefits and minimise losses, not from what end users will choose on the basis of preference. In this case Microsoft will win out nearly every time because what's the ratio of MSFT:Linux savvy users in the workspace? Rather hopelessly depressing. The cost to retrain people to Linux is totally infeasible.

Imagine if they already knew it because they were taught it in school.
in my experience I try to slowly convert the people I know (primarily the non-gamers) :

- you just have to be honest to people about linux .... ask them what they do with their computer explain the advantages/disadvantages in their case. Let them decide for themselves.
- also install it for them and point them to the ubuntuguide and the forums

When breezy arrives. We'll have an extra mission : spreading the word on edubuntu :)

http://www.edubuntu.org

poofyhairguy

June 13th, 2005, 11:45 PM

- you just have to be honest to people about linux

This is the most important thing in my own opinion.

sonny

June 14th, 2005, 12:39 AM

Well I'm finishing my study in economics, and let me tell you that I would like to see the full working paper with all the models 'cuz it's an approach I'm trying to make from some mathematic and econometrics tools, I'm sure those guys did their homework when they did the field research, BUT as a Linux user I found something that they miss placed and wich can turn the result the other way round.

However, with a monopoly, the efforts to develop new software and improve the platform are directed towards one system only and this may turn out to be better from a social welfare perspective.

That will be true in a Linux monopoly scenario, but not in a windows scenario, cuz MS will never release his code, so the OS will never be upgraded as fast as Linux; I do agree with the text that goes before it:

The basic trade-off is the following: With a duopoly, more individuals and organizations use PCs because prices are lower, and this raises welfare. However, with a duopoly, no operating system ends up exploiting fully its potential because developers' efforts wind up divided between the two systems.

But a think that history has proved Linux is right most of the time; cuz it's made by the users for the users.

demon666_nl: As soon as Longhorn gets released linux will become more interesting for users that don't have the hardware required to run Longhorn.

When longhorn is release all the hardware needed to run it will be cheap, cuz MS will try to overcome the market (as usual) therefore pushing up the supply therefore manufacturers will lower the price expecting to have more revenues by selling more quantities.

My opinion is that MS and Linux will prevail, who gets the market share? I think MS (I hope; for all our sake), what OS will be better? Linux (of course).

They just have so much money, so much marketing, so much TV commercials, and people is so stupid. In the mean while, I haven't seen a Linux commercial; well maybe 1 for Linux out of 50 for MS.

ubuntu_demon

June 14th, 2005, 11:44 AM

When longhorn is release all the hardware needed to run it will be cheap, cuz MS will try to overcome the market (as usual) therefore pushing up the supply therefore manufacturers will lower the price expecting to have more revenues by selling more quantities.

Let's face it ... there will be a time when the average desktop user has enough computer power to be able to do everything he wants. If a user has to choose between buying a new computer that makes everything look cooler but can do the same things ... a lot of people won't buy a new computer. But this will only happen if they know about linux.

But there's also a big group of people who think :
- who have the money to buy fancy new stuff
- don't care about open source

So IMO when people want to buy a new computer it's better to point them to a mac than to longhorn.

In order to convert those people to Linux in the long run. We need to keep up with mac os X ... see these url's :

http://blogs.gnome.org/view/seth?year=2005&month=3&submit=Jump

http://tirania.org/blog/archive/2005/May-02.html

http://www.cairographics.org/introduction

My opinion is that MS and Linux will prevail, who gets the market share? I think MS (I hope; for all our sake), what OS will be better? Linux (of course).

My hope is that apple eats away market share from windows this will create room for linux because apple OS and linux are both unixes.

They just have so much money, so much marketing, so much TV commercials, and people is so stupid. In the mean while, I haven't seen a Linux commercial; well maybe 1 for Linux out of 50 for MS.

We don't need commercials at this moment .... they are too expensive. Let's do it ubuntu style :
- our community rocks
- ubuntu will become a nice OS for schools --> edubuntu.org
- spread the word and be honest

I just got an idea ...... why not create a good and funny Ubuntu commercial and release it p2p ?

sonny

June 14th, 2005, 04:49 PM

I just got an idea ...... why not create a good and funny Ubuntu commercial and release it p2p ?

I think that would be great, a P2P commercial, that way windows users can see there's something more than just Windows; 'cuz I think that is the real problem, most users think there's only one choice regarding OS's and that's Windows, and they think Mac is only for multimedia stuff; or really demanding activities; plus it is more expensive to buy a Mac than a PC. I support the Linux commercials, maybe paid by all Distro's not just a Mandrake or Red-Hat commercial, but an all distro's commercial would be great, that way Linux will be place in the mind of the people; one of the basics in marketing is that people HAVE to know your product; even if it's free; because NO-BODY uses (or buy) something they don't know.

Let's face it ... there will be a time when the average desktop user has enough computer power to be able to do everything he wants. If a user has to choose between buying a new computer that makes everything look cooler but can do the same things ... a lot of people won't buy a new computer. But this will only happen if they know about linux.

IF they know about Linux as you correctly pointed, and how do you pretend they know about Linux??. And let's face it, (I'm gonna say something that it may make some people anger), the average computer user is stupid, and only uses it to chat and send e-mail, cuz they don't even know how to use the word processor, or the spreadsheet. I think that for our own sake Linux shouldn't be the first choice of OS to the user, that way we have a natural barrier to spyware, adware, viruses and the like. That is way I say to MS keep your market share, and leave us alone, as for the users they have to be informed there's something else out there, and let the user make the choice.

Maybe your¿e right about Mac, but as long as their expensive it will be second choice; it can be a perfect bridge for the users to use Linuz, though.

Brunellus

June 14th, 2005, 07:08 PM

Let's face it ... there will be a time when the average desktop user has enough computer power to be able to do everything he wants. If a user has to choose between buying a new computer that makes everything look cooler but can do the same things ... a lot of people won't buy a new computer. But this will only happen if they know about linux.

But there's also a big group of people who think :
- who have the money to buy fancy new stuff
- don't care about open source

So IMO when people want to buy a new computer it's better to point them to a mac than to longhorn.

In order to convert those people to Linux in the long run. We need to keep up with mac os X ... see these url's :

http://blogs.gnome.org/view/seth?year=2005&month=3&submit=Jump

http://tirania.org/blog/archive/2005/May-02.html

http://www.cairographics.org/introduction

My hope is that apple eats away market share from windows this will create room for linux because apple OS and linux are both unixes.

We don't need commercials at this moment .... they are too expensive. Let's do it ubuntu style :
- our community rocks
- ubuntu will become a nice OS for schools --> edubuntu.org
- spread the word and be honest

I just got an idea ...... why not create a good and funny Ubuntu commercial and release it p2p ?
p2p commercials are self defeating. Who will download an ubuntu commercial but an ubuntu user?

ubuntupr0n is another matter.

ubuntu_demon

June 14th, 2005, 07:13 PM

I think that would be great, a P2P commercial, that way windows users can see there's something more than just Windows; 'cuz I think that is the real problem, most users think there's only one choice regarding OS's and that's Windows, and they think Mac is only for multimedia stuff; or really demanding activities; plus it is more expensive to buy a Mac than a PC. I support the Linux commercials, maybe paid by all Distro's not just a Mandrake or Red-Hat commercial, but an all distro's commercial would be great, that way Linux will be place in the mind of the people; one of the basics in marketing is that people HAVE to know your product; even if it's free; because NO-BODY uses (or buy) something they don't know.

it's better to have an Ubuntu commercial because :

- people who see xfce and gnome .. think it's an entirely different OS
- It's better to market Ubuntu as an alternative to windows then market is as being Linux
- Ubuntu rocks hard :)

IF they know about Linux as you correctly pointed, and how do you pretend they know about Linux??. And let's face it, (I'm gonna say something that it may make some people anger), the average computer user is stupid, and only uses it to chat and send e-mail, cuz they don't even know how to use the word processor, or the spreadsheet.

Nerds who call average desktop users stupid are having a bit of tunnel vision I think :)

For example .. when I ride a train I don't want to know how it works in order to be able to use it. Computing should be more targeted towards high level tasks. See this article :

http://ww.osnews.com/story.php?news_id=9021

But if they don't listen to me and don't want to go for either mac or Ubuntu and keep using internet explorer although I have told them not to use it .... yeah then you've got my blessing calling them stupid :-P

I think that for our own sake Linux shouldn't be the first choice of OS to the user, that way we have a natural barrier to spyware, adware, viruses and the like. That is way I say to MS keep your market share, and leave us alone, as for the users they have to be informed there's something else out there, and let the user make the choice.

I don't agree. Let's integrate SELinux and things like that into Ubuntu

(if it becomes too poplular :-P)

I'm sure it's entirely possible to have a popular operating system without getting it's security as crappy as windows security.

It would be great if in a couple of years linux will be so big that hardware manufacturers have to work on open source drivers!

Maybe your¿e right about Mac, but as long as their expensive it will be second choice; it can be a perfect bridge for the users to use Linuz, though.

They are expensive but not very expensive anymore. You can buy for example a mac mini for 499 euros. My dad bought an imac G5 2 GHZ (1499 euros).

ubuntu_demon

June 14th, 2005, 07:14 PM

p2p commercials are self defeating. Who will download an ubuntu commercial but an ubuntu user?

Not if it is a very very funny commercial. entirely created and rendered with opensource software!

ubuntupr0n is another matter.

yeah right :-P

Spoofhound

June 14th, 2005, 09:46 PM

I do not agree with this article but I think you should read it

http://hbsworkingknowledge.hbs.edu/item.jhtml?id=4834&t=technology

Their take on what Microsoft can do strategically to remain competitive is also interesting. Particularly

Decrease Linux's demand-side learning.

Because the way to do this involves some questionable (from a legal point of view) actions, we will refrain from suggesting specifics.

They define demand-side learning as users being able to modify the code directly thus shortening the development cycle. Are they implying that MS could strategically "get at" linux developers through some form of "marketing incentives" or "development funds", otherwise known as bribery and corruption? Interesting concept!

Would also be interesting to see Microsoft perceive piracy as good for business

sonny

June 14th, 2005, 11:34 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brunellus
p2p commercials are self defeating. Who will download an ubuntu commercial but an ubuntu user?

Not if it is a very very funny commercial. entirely created and rendered with opensource software!

I have to agree with demon666_nl, if the commercial is great everyone will see it; but I still think it should be an all distro commercial, cuz that way it'll be cheaper for everyone to put it on TV. I'm seeing this in a way that people should know there's a bunch of options IF they change to Linux, cuz either way, it doesn't matter wich distro you have, at the end we're all Linux.

See it this way, our mother is the Linux kernel, but she likes many men, so we (her children) have different fathers (don't get me wrong it is just a metaphor; perhaps a bad one, but it is the way I see it :grin: ), but when it's mother's day we all give her presents no matter wich father we have; it's the same with the distro's we have to support Linux (our mom) no matter wich father (distro) we came from.

Nerds who call average desktop users stupid are having a bit of tunnel vision I think
I'm not a nerd; I'm still afraid to re-compile my kernel and to do advance stuff; I consider my self, as many others would agree, as a "well informed user".

I've red the article and found interesting from a econometric and mathematical point of view (I want to read the full paper); but my guess is that those guys did their best but missed some important stuff about Linux, cus they don't know the way our community works, they haven't seen the forums, and use it as much they have done with Windows, so they know all the advantages of windows, but they don't see all the advantages of Linux.

It would be great if in a couple of years linux will be so big that hardware manufacturers have to work on open source drivers!
I totally agree with you; although we have some support from they, NVIDIA could be the best example, they are supporting Linux big time; at least more than the average manufacturer.

Would also be interesting to see Microsoft perceive piracy as good for business
My guess is that Gates realized it before we did, he let us copy his software and say nothing, he still does; even when they say they want to finnish piracy. There are more ways to secure a software than just a cd-key, and with all their money if they wanted to invest in R&D to find a way to secure their software they would have done it by now. An other fact, the cd-keys for XP came out before XP was in the stores to buy it, where did those keys came from?.

poofyhairguy

June 14th, 2005, 11:44 PM

Would also be interesting to see Microsoft perceive piracy as good for business

They have for a long time. Didn't you ever wonder why they let pirate Window's copies get updates?

GarySaved

June 15th, 2005, 12:00 AM

I do not think either will actually 'Win'.
M$ has the head start, and as has been said, with the amount of money they have, they can change the rules if they need to, Look at the winmodems. One little move like that, and all the computers with them are unusable to linux users.

As Linux gets more publicity, more people will try it. The perfect scenerio to me would be for everyone to know they have a choice, and be able to pick what they want.

I am not sure I would want 'Everyone' using opensource any more than I liked 'Everyone' using M$.

ubuntu_demon

June 15th, 2005, 12:00 AM

here's the ubuntu commercial topic :

http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=41771

let's continue everything about the commercial there

sonny

June 15th, 2005, 12:20 AM

I am not sure I would want 'Everyone' using opensource any more than I liked 'Everyone' using M$.
I agree with you, if Linux gets too popular, someone will create a spyware or adware for us; as I've already pointed it is our natural barrier for those things.

What I really would like to see (and not the most probable scenario) is that no matter what is your choice, but that you can interact with other software; for example that MS-Office would read Open-Office format, the Gimp or Open-Office been able to read Corel Draw format, and things like that. I guess that would be a long-run equilibrium for all distro's (MS included).

ubuntu_demon

June 15th, 2005, 12:22 AM

I have to agree with demon666_nl, if the commercial is great everyone will see it; but I still think it should be an all distro commercial, cuz that way it'll be cheaper for everyone to put it on TV. I'm seeing this in a way that people should know there's a bunch of options IF they change to Linux, cuz either way, it doesn't matter wich distro you have, at the end we're all Linux.

See it this way, our mother is the Linux kernel, but she likes many men, so we (her children) have different fathers (don't get me wrong it is just a metaphor; perhaps a bad one, but it is the way I see it :grin: ), but when it's mother's day we all give her presents no matter wich father we have; it's the same with the distro's we have to support Linux (our mom) no matter wich father (distro) we came from.

I've answered in the new ubuntu commercial thread here :

http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showpost.php?p=213127&postcount=7

I'm not a nerd; I'm still afraid to re-compile my kernel and to do advance stuff; I consider my self, as many others would agree, as a "well informed user".

I didn't want to offend you.

Do you read slashdot (news for nerds) ? :-P

ubuntu_demon

June 15th, 2005, 12:26 AM

What I really would like to see (and not the most probable scenario) is that no matter what is your choice, but that you can interact with other software; for example that MS-Office would read Open-Office format, the Gimp or Open-Office been able to read Corel Draw format, and things like that. I guess that would be a long-run equilibrium for all distro's (MS included).

That's a nice dream :)

sonny

June 15th, 2005, 01:13 AM

I didn't want to offend you.

Do you read slashdot (news for nerds) ? :-P
You didn't offend me... :-P It'll be nice if someone consider me a Linux geek, but I'm afraid I'm far from being one.
But I DO think that most people have the idea that every Linux user is a geek, when there's plenty of people like me, a well infromed user, wich I guess would be more than the average but under the geek user.

That's a nice dream
That's the bad thing, it is just a dream, but if think hard, you wont find anyone getting hurt. If MS-Office would be able to read OO format, what is he loosing???
I'd say nothing, and the competition will be placed to what things they offer that OO doesn't have, that would be healthy competition (something MS doesn't like), and the true best software would win the match; not thinking about the innovations that kind of competition would bring up. But as you say, it a nice dream.

ubuntu_demon

June 15th, 2005, 01:52 AM

That's the bad thing, it is just a dream, but if think hard, you wont find anyone getting hurt. If MS-Office would be able to read OO format, what is he loosing???

they'll lose some people to linux.

I'd say nothing, and the competition will be placed to what things they offer that OO doesn't have, that would be healthy competition (something MS doesn't like), and the true best software would win the match; not thinking about the innovations that kind of competition would bring up. But as you say, it a nice dream.

:)

desdinova

June 15th, 2005, 01:55 AM

For businesses (and as someone in the know who supported and trained countless users in Office) - its strength is its integration of VBA - a lot of businesses write custom applications around Office.....

Its not the file formats, but VBA thats the real killer app for Office

WirelessMike

June 23rd, 2005, 03:52 PM

Demon made a very accurate statement regarding MS Longhorn hardware requirements pushing more Windows users to Linux.

All reports I've read so far regarding Longhorn reflect M$ tradition of more expensive hardware requirements as the OS evolves.

See this article (http://www.msversus.org/title/Average+Hardware+Requirements) for an example reference.

Now that Apple is integrating a more common architecture with Intel processors and Linux is becoming easier and easier to adapt to with distros such as Ubuntu, Mandriva and Fedora, both of which (Apple and Linux) following a trend of maximizing value by offering more features and greater usability on less hardware, MS should SERIOUSLY reconsider its business model.

OSX and Linux typically peform fine on relatively light hardware. So far, Longhorn tests on a minimum of 1G RAM. I won't mention processor recommendations as they appear unrealistic to me. It's been tested successfully on an 2600xp, that's not so bad. Keep in mind that MS typically recommends double the minimum memory to adequately support multitasking and fast graphics. If the worst is true, I hope your mobo supports 4G RAM. I don't believe minimum requirements will be quite so bad as reported, but they are traditionally higher than the previous OS minimum requirements, which puts them requiring much more expensive hardware than that required to run any of their competitors' OS.

I honestly believe many will start seriously considering migrating to OSX and Linux in light of such hardware requirements.

ubuntu_demon

June 24th, 2005, 10:33 AM

Demon made a very accurate statement regarding MS Longhorn hardware requirements pushing more Winblows users to Linux.

All reports I've read so far regarding Longhorn reflect M$ tradition of more expensive hardware requirements as the OS evolves.

See this article (http://www.msversus.org/title/Average+Hardware+Requirements) for an example reference.

nice article
they don't mention windows 2003

Now that Apple is integrating a more common architecture with Intel processors and Linux is becoming easier and easier to adapt to with distros such as Ubuntu, Mandriva and Fedora, both of which (Apple and Linux) following a trend of maximizing value by offering more features and greater usability on less hardware, Microshaft should SERIOUSLY reconsider its business model.

OSX and Linux typically peform fine on relatively light hardware. So far, Longhorn tests on a minimum of 1G RAM. I won't mention processor recommendations as they appear unrealistic to me. It's been tested successfully on an 2600xp, that's not so bad. Keep in mind that M$ typically recommends double the minimum memory to adequately support multitasking and fast graphics. If the worst is true, I hope your mobo supports 4G RAM. I don't believe minimum requirements will be quite so bad as reported, but they are traditionally higher than the previous OS minimum requirements, which puts them requiring much more expensive hardware than that required to run any of their competitors' OS.

I honestly believe many will start seriously considering migrating to OSX and Linux in light of such hardware requirements.[/QUOTE]

true
but OSX needs more power than linux
also for people who want to keep using their existing systems ... there is a portion that rather will migrate to linux than buy a new system.

sonny

June 24th, 2005, 04:28 PM

true
but OSX needs more power than linux
also for people who want to keep using their existing systems ... there is a portion that rather will migrate to linux than buy a new system.
I still think that M$ has a great power to control the IT market (software and hardware), and my guess is that the prices will low to a level that would make it available for the "normal" windows user, although the ones that are going to win with that will be US.. the Linux users, while the windows users will struggle with more powerful hardware and a more hardware-demanding OS we are going to enjoy the possibilities to have 2 GB of ram.... my guess is that a new Long-Horn PC will cost you more or less as much as a very decent PC today.

TravisNewman

June 24th, 2005, 04:57 PM

My take on the whole thing, and I've remained silent for most of this and just enjoyed the read:

Nobody will win. Nobody CAN truly win, if only one side thinks its a war. MS has shown that they're uneasy about Linux, and obviously a lot of Linux users dislike Windows, but Microsoft is waging war on Linux while Linux concentrates on building their product. Nobody will win. Linux may one day overtake MS, and MS may one day swallow up all the Linux users, but it won't be a victory against anyone, it will be a success FOR the company/community that comes up with a fantastic product that everyone wants to use.

poofyhairguy

June 24th, 2005, 07:51 PM

and MS may one day swallow up all the Linux users,

Scary thought. Like Jonah and the whale.

TravisNewman

June 24th, 2005, 07:54 PM

sonny

June 24th, 2005, 08:23 PM

*LOL* yeah, I didn't mean that LITERALLY poof ;)

But I seriously doubt that it ever will. i for one won't use Windows as a primary OS anymore for philosophical reasons-- unless they release Windows GPL (which could be in their benefit).
Well there's ton's of people that use the WPL; Windows Piracy License... :grin: Like the Indians... they're getting charged by M$ with 1 dolar for making legal their illegal Windows...

savage

July 10th, 2005, 05:03 PM

I didn't read everyone's post, so I apologize if this is repeating.

Interesting read, here is some extra spice. Many other factors that could have an impact on this "battle". Some off the top of my head are:

The paper takes for granted that the Desktop OS will be the main field of play. In the future hardware by your toes (or on your lap) could easily end up as a secondary or tertiary factor. Paul Graham makes that point (http://www.paulgraham.com/road.html) well.

Projects like Samba, NTFS on linux, NoMachine & Freenx, Firefox & extensions, Google (just about everything they write and do), LAMP, all are mining a future further away from the desktop. This is just a smattering of available applications and projects, the number of free projects that undermines the future of a conventional computing approach is staggering.

If the above or any other seasoning of factors is taken into account all the nice little mathematical predictions you want to make could be blown out of the water. Which is just as well because no one knows what the future holds, so let's continue to play tarot.

Look at how all the major industry players are gathering themselves around services that are provided over a network. Observe the rapid rise of blogging, CMS (Content Management Systems), search & data organization, XML, RSS, many sectors of open source technology are young, what will happen as they mature and consolidate.

You've got social factors to take into account. Like offshore movements for both programming and customer service. The seeming trend of less U.S. students being interested in computing careers. Little things like terrorism, rising sea levels, pollution, population, etc, which could contribute poplation shifts from larger cities.

The implications here lead to smaller well organized groups that aren't location specific. GNU Linux FOSS has only just begun the instruction on organizational models that bloom in the above scenario. Look how successful it has been thus far. The future in this area will have a market impact that few have predicted on.

Couple this type of stuff with a model like OSS & GNU/Linux et.al and you can get into all sorts of weird scenarios. Where is it all going, who knows, but I'm happy about one thing, I like FOSS & GNU & Linux & most everything else going around me in our computing realm. I love the community, and you know what the world really needs now, community. We win every day.

Kvark

July 10th, 2005, 07:10 PM

In reply to comments along the lines of "let everyone else use windows and I'll keep using linux on my desktop". That won't happen.

Linux will either take a large portion of the market or dissapear completely from the desktop scene.

How will you listen to music and watch movies in the future? As encrypted streaming media online. Before you get to see/hear the media stream a hardware chip called TCM or Trusted Computing Module will need to send fingerprints of every single program you are running. Those fingerprints will be compared to a central database of approved software. The same will go for playing games and any other online service that wants to make sure you don't use cracks.

So if you use any program at all that is not approved by the commercial software industry. Then no music, movies, games or online services for you.

Linux software will only be added to that approval database if it has a so big market share that it can't be ignored. And even then, you'll be cut off if you modify the source and recompile, only the specific versions that are approved will pass the test.

If you think I'm joking, google for TCM, and TCPA. I could easily find a document from intel stating which motherboards they added TCM to and that they will add it to CPUs in the future. And a conspiracy theory style website from some open source guys explaining what TCM will be used for. And a technical report from IBM demponstrating that TCM can indeed do what the open source guys claimed.

darkmatter

July 10th, 2005, 08:15 PM

M$ will own in 10years or so

The Bill Gates Philosophy: Money doesn't by happiness, but you sure can corner a market with it. ;-)

poofyhairguy

July 11th, 2005, 01:38 AM

poptones

July 11th, 2005, 09:08 AM

Kvark

July 11th, 2005, 09:27 AM

There is a lot of fear and ignorance surrounding TCPA and the "secure platform." But I think it's a fantastic step ahead and we need to embrace it. It is coming and pretending it isn't there won't make it go away, it will only leave us out of the discussion.

I would love to see more involvement with this technology within ubuntu. I'd even love to participate in some development. Who would I discuss this with?

Indeed it is a big step ahead for security. Now users can trust their computers to not have been infected. Companies can trust computers connecting to their network to not have spyware. And online services can trust users to not record media or crack software.

It is just very important that linux is not left out. And that those online services will bother to build up databases over trustable linux software too. Which they will take time to do only if there is enough linux users around to be worth the effort. The lack of hardware support and software portage proves that we need more linux users then we have today before we are worth the effort.

poptones

July 11th, 2005, 09:48 AM

What do you mean "worth the effort?" Whose effort? The entire point of linux is we support ourselves. Every user can contribute something to the community.

Canonical is a company. A company that oversees development of one of the best and most popular desktop distributions and is moving toward the server realm. Supporting this technology when manufacturers begin offering the hardware will make them all the more competetive in this market. That is not a 'waste of effort."

And the fact Canonical exists as a corporate entity, with officers and people held in positions of accountability, makes them every bit as legitimate as any other corporate participant. I would hope to see their name on that list of "partners" in these formative discussions.

Kvark

July 11th, 2005, 02:21 PM

Whose effort... Probably microsoft, intel and allies will fund and organization similar to TCG to maintain a database over all software that can not record streams, rip copy protected CDs, crack games, etc. So if it is worth that organization's effort to verify linux software.

Canonical can verify wheter or not everything in the repos is free from recording features or not but online services will just compare to the big central databse. Not to canonical's cause canonical is just one of countless other companies.

poptones

July 11th, 2005, 09:50 PM

I think you are making the common mistake most seem to make. TCPA is NOT Palladium. TCPA is NOT about DRM, because DRM requires one to approach the problem from the perspective of "we cannot trust this user."

So if you use any program at all that is not approved by the commercial software industry. Then no music, movies, games or online services for you.

This kind of stuff. See, first there are already movie studios that don't use css. And there are online music providers that don't use DRM. And there are bazillions of CDs out there and they are not protected at all. So it's not like TCPA is going to leave everyone who won't pay the toll sitting in some cave without "culture." It will, however, help further divide "culture" and force more "undecided voters" to take a stand on what sort of "culture" they are going to support. I personally think that's a very good thing.

TCPA is about giving the user the ability to secure the system against attack. It is possible there will be developed tools that will allow the user to hand that control over to a 'trusted third party" (like Microsoft LOL) but that is not an inherent part of TCPA.

There will undoubtedly be servers employing TCPA. In fact that is probably the most prime market because the greatest gains are to be made there. If I can prevent a hacker from installing a rootkit on my machine from the start, if I can have the machine correct itself in the event of a buffer overrun attack, then I've really got something. And there are a LOT of linux and *nix servers out there.

http://www.research.ibm.com/gsal/tcpa/tcpa_rebuttal.pdf

Kvark

July 11th, 2005, 10:29 PM

poptones

July 11th, 2005, 11:04 PM

Yes you are right. There is and will always be unprotected media. But there is and will always be protected media too. So even though there will be much music, movies and online games you don't need to authenticate with TCPA technology to get. There will also be much online content that do use the technology. It a very powerful tool to avoid cracks so I can't imagine anything else then that many will use it.

Britney Spears and Madonna may lock up their content because they know they can. The music industry reps themselves make the point, again and again, that for every Britney or Madonna there are a hundred others that do not attain that fame. Why do they not get that fame? Is it because they all suck? Or is it because they... umm... refuse to suck?

I do not know anyone in a band who would not welcome the opportunity to be heard. itunes, cdbaby, magnatune, jamendo... there are a LOT of online providers helping these bands find an audience. The same goes for film makers and even authors. As people dioscover the inconvenience that is represented by DRM they will be driven to these alternative sources; DRM will, in the long run, be good for everyone. More choice, and more control for authors.

For the user to choose between linux and being able to watch only say half of the movies online or windows and being able to watch whatever you want.... Most would go with windows.

Very much speculative - especially given that APPLE exists. Who is to say that by the time DRM becomes practical Apple is not the next Sony? Why should I need a PC in order to buy music online? Why not just turn on my wifi connected "video ipod" and surf over to itunes? Click on what I want, enter the passphrase for my (well protected) credit information I keyed into the ipod when I first bought it, and I'm done. If I want a ringtone on my bluetooth enabled cellphone just tell the ipod to send it over.

You cannot assume the consumer experience will be anything like it is now once a "trusted infrastructre" can be constructed. Of course there will still be PCs - authors have to create that content. But there will be a hundred other ways to access the content those authors create that do NOT require a person to learn the intricacies of administrating over a PC.

Thats why I hope linux gets a big user base soonish so it is not left out.

Look at all the consumer gadets that use linux. It ain't leaving any time soon. But as they adopt "trusted" infrastructure they WILL become harder to hack.

Online services using this technology to check exactly what programs users are running is a good thing

I don't know if I would agree with you on that one. I would say "only with my consent." But there definitely needs to be a way to secure so much of our infratrsucture against things like ringtone cellphone attacks. Can you imagine the "fun" if a virus making the rounds to those imaginary networked ipods was running around wiping out everyone's music collection?

meldra

August 21st, 2005, 01:06 PM

As it is with life in general, there will be no winners or losers, just survivors.

BoyOfDestiny

August 29th, 2005, 01:16 AM

Geez, I'm glad a few people have some sense. TCPA disturbs me greatly. This is not something anyone should want.

http://news.com.com/2061-10796_3-5842143.html

http://www.alternet.org/story/24293/

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588-5825301.html

http://www.freedom-to-tinker.com/?p=882

Here are just a few articles, (not all about TCPA, but indeed related) read them, and use your brain.

I trust the intelligensia, since they will either reject or break all this b.s. MP3 and DVD playback is already GPL'ed. It's just illegal due to patents on one, and reverse-engineering to circumvent copy protection (even though it's for personal use).

I'll let you search for the links if you are interested, but remember SOME law makers get payed off by special interests. Orin Hatch is an easy example, he is hollywood's pet.

If you are still on board for this crap, remember these guys often don't do things right the first time, so expect problems, and forced hardware upgrades to even use it.

For me, a computer will always be a general purpose device. I will boycott anything that changes that... If I want something closed, I'll use a console or a dvd player.

Please don't turn the PC into a purely consumer device. It has much more potential, as you can see with Ubuntu.

As for piracy, that's a whole 'nother ball game. I will say this however, if something is socially acceptable, but illegal, it might be time to write your lawmakers. The old model needs tossing perhaps...

EDIT: I noticed someone had a TCPA rebuttal link... Just for fun it's called the Fritz chip right? Right...

http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/indus.asp?CID=N00002423&cycle=2002

http://cryptome.org/broadbandits.htm

Enjoy!

ekravche

August 29th, 2005, 05:04 AM

Some of my rambling may be off topic so read at your own discretion.

I think the main reason that windows evolved as it has was because of applications such as office, and the fact that IBM compatible PCs were cheaper than Macs, and the two were big competitors at the time that this was the case. Also there was more software for PCs than Macs. Nowadays PCs are mostly running windows, because the OS is very easy to use, it offers a nice UI, and runs most applications that a user can desire. Now MS is slowly moving into the server market as well, which used to be dominated by the *Nixes. The reason for this again is that MS offers a server solution that doesn't require many administrators to administrate the MS servers.

The one fundamental flaw in windows is that the more features that MS adds, the more holes their OSes expose to be taken advantage of by malicious users. This is the reason that caused me to switch from Windows to Ubuntu. Windows sucks when it comes to security, it really needs to be behind a firewall all the time, and even with that in mind there are still problems with viruses. Also MS products are expensive. A new business today is better off using Linux, because the OS offers all the necessary software a business may require free of charge.

The issues that I've experienced during my move from Windows to Ubuntu is migration. Not everything which is available in windows has a linux equivalent. Take for instance applications written with VBA that use COM objects. Such business applications will not run on linux.

The nice thing about having both Linux and Windows around is that both create jobs for people to maintain applications in both OSes. So having both is good for the the software economy since there is demand for developers, admins, etc in both OSes.

arnieboy

August 29th, 2005, 07:09 AM

Well there's ton's of people that use the WPL; Windows Piracy License... :grin: Like the Indians... they're getting charged by M$ with 1 dolar for making legal their illegal Windows...
If the moderators dont take any action against the perpetrators of such statements, I personally will tear such guys to shreds. Moderators and others please take note.

gravestone

August 29th, 2005, 07:21 AM

I don't think any one OS will win. I think the PC will die out as we know it today. Already we have hand held devices (PSP for example) that can do what a PC can do. In ten years, these devices will do what today's PCs can do plus more.

I also see more each day, a lot of applications are being moved to web server based apps. This means that your data is available on any machine. For instance I have my bookmarks on a server, and whatever machine I use, be it a PSP, laptop, PC, mobile phone, etc, I can access my bookmarks, and other data.

The war I think will be on the server platform, and that is where M$ has been trying to get their foothold.