World Domination 201

[Daveski]

Report on fixing bug #1:

http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html

This raises interesting points about the current window of opportunity in the fight for 64bit desktop market share. According to this, the war will be won by the end of 2008, and Linux is in a prime position except for the lack of pre-installed machines, and out-of-the-box support for multimedia (DVD and iTunes, and perhaps HD video content).

Does the Ubuntu/Linspire partnership bode well for Linux in general, and for Ubuntu/Linspire to increase market share during this transition?

[melancholeric]

As far as multimedia support goes: http://www.fluendo.com/

I guess they read that essay too.

[Daveski]

With this in mind, now really is the time to try to get Dell and HP to consider selling preinstalled Ubuntu. I realise there are many issues to resolve, but it is amazing how quickly the Linux community has jumped on the opportuninty to let Dell know what is needed.

If you haven't already seen this thread, I suggest you have a skim through:
Which distro should Dell choose?
http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=370868

[Polygon]

currently linux is in the best positon for 64 bit. Sure windows users can use 64 bit vista or something, but only the OS is really written for 64 bit, most of the programs people iwll be downloading for windows will still be in 32 bit

with linux all you have to do is either download the 64 bit version of the program, or if its not aviable just compile the source and it will work for 64 bit.

[Daveski]

I agree that the position for 64bit is best for Linux right now, but the lack of 3D, Wifi, Audio and Video codecs is still a major hurdle. What are your thoughts on a 64bit 'Killer App'?

[%hMa@?b<C]

I agree that the position for 64bit is best for Linux right now, but the lack of 3D, Wifi, Audio and Video codecs is still a major hurdle. What are your thoughts on a 64bit 'Killer App'?

cinelerra :)

[Daveski]

With this in mind, now really is the time to try to get Dell and HP to consider selling preinstalled Ubuntu.

Dell have just stated that they will be offering pre-installed Linux on both Desktop and Laptop machines - although they have not yet announced which distro they will choose.

This could be a victory, and additionally Dell have said:

Dell recognizes the importance of open source, GPL-licensed drivers which are maintained upstream in kernel.org. They allow users the widest choice of Linux distributions, effectively taking the specific hardware and distribution out of the decision-making process and let you focus on solving your business problems. We will work with our hardware partners to develop, test, and maintain Free drivers, and continue to make progress towards that goal for all drivers.

http://direct2dell.com/one2one/archive/2007/03/28/9655.aspx

[Daveski]

http://direct2dell.com/one2one/default.aspx

With a major OEM supplying Linux (Ubuntu!) we are really starting to tackle some of the issues raised in WD201. My experience of Feisty tells me that the handling of 'restricted' drivers in this release starts to tackle the other major issue. <big smiles>

Edit: Launched today: http://www.dell.com/content/topics/segtopic.aspx/ubuntu?c=us&l=en&s=dhs

[Daveski]

http://www.linuxjournal.com/article/9911
Interview with Eric S. Raymond

A year later and things do seem to be following the 201 prediction, but as ESR states - time is running out. He specifically points to Ubuntu as a leader in Linux adoption:



Vista is a flop, and Apple is steaming away from the desktop market as fast as it can—it took “Computer” out of its corporate name a few months ago and now seems to want to be all about iPods and cell phones and media, oh my. Can't blame Apple; profit margins and volumes are both higher in those markets.

This means there's a huge Ubuntu-shaped power vacuum opening up in the desktop market. (A year ago, I thought it might be Linspire, but Linspire blew it big-time on several levels. One of those was soliciting strategic advice from me, swearing to follow it, and then doing the exact opposite.) If Mark Shuttleworth and his merry crew at Canonical don't blow it, we're going to win. And Ubuntu seems to me to be doing the right things, like hassle-free support for the evil proprietary multimedia codecs that nontechnical end users actually want.

Unfortunately, not blowing it requires not just doing the right things but doing them fast enough. Time is getting tight. We have at most another year before the market settles on the dominant desktop OS for the 64-bit era. That's not a lot of release cycles even at open-source speed.

We're so close. If we had even another nine months on the window, I don't think I'd be worried. As it is, it's going to be a damned near-run thing either way.

[zmjjmz]

As an interesting aside, System76 is selling their laptops and desktops with 64-bit Ubuntu now.
If only Dell would do the same...

[Daveski]

As an interesting aside, System76 is selling their laptops and desktops with 64-bit Ubuntu now.
If only Dell would do the same...

Vote here http://www.ideastorm.com/article/show/72732/Install_64_bit_ubuntu_on_ubuntu_computers_from_Del l

[Daveski]

I have no experience of the 64 bit Windows desktop OSes, but here is a very good review which seems to indicate that Vista 64 is much better a year after release. I assume that the recent sevice pack will also address some of the remaining issues.

http://www.winsupersite.com/showcase/winvista_1yr_x64.asp

Microsoft is going to have to get this right to survive in the desktop market next year, and so is Linux.

[Daveski]

Dell are now offering consumer machines with 8.04 preinstalled:

http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=863421

and

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/07/18/dell_adds_ubuntu_systems_updates_hardy_heron/

This gets better and better. Dell, HP, and ASUS are major OEMs providing a choice to the customer other than Microsoft. I'm counting this as a victory. http://linux.dell.com/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

Pre-installs of Linux have increased massively in the last year:

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/81776,linux-preinstalls-rocket-to-three-per-cent.aspx

[Daveski]

Wine 1.0 will help:

http://brainstorm.ubuntu.com/idea/6082/

[Daveski]

http://catb.org/~esr/writings/world-domination/world-domination-201.html

This raises interesting points about the current window of opportunity in the fight for 64bit desktop market share. According to this, the war will be won by the end of 2008, and Linux is in a prime position except for the lack of pre-installed machines, and out-of-the-box support for multimedia (DVD and iTunes, and perhaps HD video content).

Well as we near the end of 2008, I am thinking that the predictions of the requirement for more that 4Gb or RAM is fairly accurate - perhaps another few months or so, but Vista's poor performance is definitely making 4Gb pretty desirable for most users.

The only thing not predicted is the rise of the low-powered machine (the netbook) in which low powered CPU's / memory are not an issue. If you just want a Browser, email and a bit of IM, then surely you do not need 4 billion bytes?

I am fascinated that in the time since my original post, pre-installed Linux machines are around, and almost popular. Multimedia support is pretty good barring some patent issues, and out-of-the-box support for WiFi is excellent now. Many hardware vendors are starting to ease Linux use (even if they are not 'supporting' it yet). We have come a long way.