Statistics on usage, growth, and Ubuntu success

[jellyware]

anyone got any idea how many ubuntu users are out there? I understand its the #1 linux distro at the moment...

what % of the os market do we have? how can I get this info?

[stuporglue]

Here's a statistical aproach

The forum stats say there are ~79,000 registered users. If you were to go to a LUG meeting or other congregation of Ubuntu users, you could ask how many of those users who use Ubuntu also registered for the forums. If you were able to ask 500 Ubuntu users, you could do a ratio and make a calculation.

You'd have to find a way to interview a representative selection of Ubuntu users. ie. You obviously couldn't post the question here.

If Canonical were to help you find out, they could check how many unique IP addresses query the ntp server over a certain period of time. They might have a more accurate way of measuring the number of users that I haven't thought of here.

[aysiu]

If Canonical were to help you find out, they could check how many unique IP addresses query the ntp server over a certain period of time. They might have a more accurate way of measuring the number of users that I haven't thought of here. Is the "ntp server" the one that hosts the Ubuntu repositories? If so, I'm in total agreement. Whether using apt-get, aptitude, Synaptic, Adept, or Add Applications, any regular Ubuntu user would be querying the repositories at least once a month if not more often.

[stuporglue]

>> Is the "ntp server" the one that hosts the Ubuntu repositories?

The ntp server is the one hit when you're booting. Ntp == Network time protocol. It gets hit to keep your clock on time.

I think this is the script that's getting run when that line goes by /etc/network/if-up.d/ntpdate

[ssam]

i have heard that a million ship it cds have been sent.

there are also the users of the other forums.

also i think quite a few people in here are the tech support person for their family and friends. i help maintain ubuntu on 3 other peoples computers, and only one of them has joined the forums.

[xenmax]

Just so you know, i have disabled ntp clock synchronization on my ubuntu.

[alinuxfan]

distrowatch has ubuntu #1 with over 2700 hits per day and it has been over 2000 since i started looking at switching to ubuntu from mandrake (and that was back in either November or December)
Add that to all the shipit cds. that is A LOT of people using ubuntu.
I recomment ubuntu to everyone i know and have went thru almost all my shipit cds. Gonna install ubuntu on my parents computer next time I am back there and give my little brother a copy. It seems like every day I run into someone using linux and more than any other distro i hear from them is Ubuntu
/em shrugs

alinuxfan

[aysiu]

distrowatch has ubuntu #1 with over 2700 hits per day and it has been over 2000 since i started looking at switching to ubuntu from mandrake (and that was back in either November or December)
Add that to all the shipit cds. that is A LOT of people using ubuntu. All that says is that Ubuntu is a very popular part of the DistroWatch site to be visited and that there are many CDs out there--it doesn't give an indication of how many users there are.

I still think a count on unique IPs that access the Ubuntu repositories would be the best number indicator.

[prizrak]

All that says is that Ubuntu is a very popular part of the DistroWatch site to be visited and that there are many CDs out there--it doesn't give an indication of how many users there are.

I still think a count on unique IPs that access the Ubuntu repositories would be the best number indicator.
Not really. Most people are on dynamic IP (static tends to be extra) so if I'm 10.21.45.60 today I might be 20.140.23.22 tomorrow (IP's are completely made up I'm not even sure they are possible, can't remember the rules). So it would not be an extremely accurate count, it's pretty hard to give a good estimation of Linux users in general and Ubuntu in particular.

[az]

I had heard that it was six million ubuntu users and it was doubling every six months.

But, you know, 72 percent of all statistics are wrong...

[stuporglue]

Not really. Most people are on dynamic IP (static tends to be extra) so if I'm 10.21.45.60 today I might be 20.140.23.22 tomorrow (IP's are completely made up I'm not even sure they are possible, can't remember the rules). So it would not be an extremely accurate count, it's pretty hard to give a good estimation of Linux users in general and Ubuntu in particular.

I'm with Aysiu on this one. Anyone reasonably good with statistics could look at the different factors and generate a decent estimate of how many Ubuntu users there are. With such large numbers, no one individual matters. The fact that you have a different IP today is insignificant, those users who never connect to the net don't really matter all that much either. Those factors would be taken into account by the statistician and the number would end up being correct (+/- an error range, of course).

[aysiu]

prizrak's concern is a legitimate one, but I'm with stuporglue on this--any statistic is going to have a margin of error. As long as you're realistic about that margin, your statistics are probably still sound.

[Apollyein]

prizrak's concern is a legitimate one, but I'm with stuporglue on this--any statistic is going to have a margin of error. As long as you're realistic about that margin, your statistics are probably still sound.
*nods in assent*

Or, we could walk the face of the earth in one big line, and check every computer we come across to see if it's running Ubuntu...

But how would we get across the oceans?

~Polly

[int]

it's easy to see, the browser that ubuntu use are changed to have the name e.g.

Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.8.0.1) Gecko/20060324 Ubuntu/dapper Firefox/1.5.0.1

just a (very) large website record all hit on this, and see the ratio and them make an calculation...

[openmind]

6 Mill is way too big a number with less than 100,000 members on this, the premier forum. My gut tells me that it's probably around a million, maybe a little less.

But that's just an educated guess.

[Mr Green]

Last time I counted there were over 3 734 546 users!

[az]

6 Mill is way too big a number with less than 100,000 members on this, the premier forum. My gut tells me that it's probably around a million, maybe a little less.

But that's just an educated guess.
1. There are other sources of help other than the forums. There are other forums in other languages, too. The forums are a big interface to the ubuntu community, but their numbers are meaningless. I would think it is the minority of ubuntu users who have even heard of the ubuntuforums.

2. A lot of people visit the forums and are served with the answer to their questions without even having to create an account.

3. A great number of people use ubuntu and pay for professional support. By your measurement, they are not counted.

[aysiu]

1. There are other sources of help other than the forums. There are other forums in other languages, too. The forums are a big interface to the ubuntu community, but their numbers are meaningless. I would think it is the minority of ubuntu users who have even heard of the ubuntuforums.

2. A lot of people visit the forums and are served with the answer to their questions without even having to create an account.

3. A great number of people use ubuntu and pay for professional support. By your measurement, they are not counted. Yes, but it goes the other way, too. A lot of people sign up for the forums but no longer use Ubuntu.

[openmind]

1. There are other sources of help other than the forums. There are other forums in other languages, too. The forums are a big interface to the ubuntu community, but their numbers are meaningless. I would think it is the minority of ubuntu users who have even heard of the ubuntuforums.

2. A lot of people visit the forums and are served with the answer to their questions without even having to create an account.

3. A great number of people use ubuntu and pay for professional support. By your measurement, they are not counted.

That's why I estimated less than 10% of users on these forums.....................

[stuporglue]

It's called statistics folks. It'd be impossible to actually count the number of people using Ubuntu.

What you do is take a a reasonable sample of people, determine the percentage of people behaving in a certain way and apply that ratio to the total group of people.

No one here is suggesting that the number of forum members or ntp-pingers is an accurate count of Ubuntu users. What they ARE saying is that those metrics could be used to extrapolate the number of Ubuntu users.

From Wikipedia:

For practical reasons, rather than compiling data about the entire population, one instead studies a chosen subset of the population, called a sample. Data are collected about the sample in some kind of experimental setting. The data are then subjected to statistical analysis, which serves two related purposes: description and inference.

So back to the question of how many Ubuntu users... Let's say you wanted to use forum membes as a reference number to find out how many total users there are. Here's roughly what you'd do:

1) Count the number of forum members. (Pretend its 80,000)
2) Of forum members see how many are still using Ubuntu (Pretend its 60,000)
3) Take a number (let's say 1000) Ubuntu users from different geo-political-social groups and find out the number of those people registered at the forums.

If 10% of the 1000 people are registered at the forums, you would then deduce that there are ten times the number of still-using-Ubuntu forum members. So, with just those numbers, you would guess that there were 600,000 users.

Obviously these numbers are faked, and using more ratios and measurements would make it more accurate. HOWEVER, this would be a perfectly valid way of estimating the number of Ubuntu users.

So, to all you naysayers, it would be possible to make this calculation. Yeah, it would take a little work, and it wouldn't be 100% accurate, but it'd a good aproximation.

[aysiu]

I'm just curious--you know when people say there's such-and-such a percentage of people who are "Windows users" (say 85% or whatever), where do those statistics come from? Is it based off of how many desktops or notebooks have Windows preloaded?

I'm not a "Windows user," but Windows did, in fact, come with the computer I'm using for Ubuntu.

[az]

"It is top of the Distrowatch download chart, is installed on up to six million computers, and doubling every eight months, according to estimates from Shuttleworth's company, Canonical."

I was wrong. It's doubling every eight months, according to quotes from The Register. Probably not a very accurate article, but it does say those numbers are from Canonical.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/01/31/google_goes_desktop_linux/

[meldra]

Greetings,

You can now get some cool little Ubuntu 'user number' buttons for blogs and or forum sigs. Unfortunately, they're not much use for this particular forum, but cool none-the-less.

http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net

You can also register your machines with the site to count towards the site statistics.

Examples of the buttons:

http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-user.php?user=51 http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-user2.php?user=51 http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-blogger.php?user=51

Also, digg the site (http://digg.com/linux_unix/Ubuntu_users_-_Stand_up_and_be_counted) so more people can find out about it!

Just a little bit of fun and a way to show that we are proud to be Ubuntu users!

[matthew]

Hey, that's fun! (Ubuntu User #104)

I'm going to move this to the cafe where it will be more visible. I can't think of any reason it needs to stay in the Backyard.

[meldra]

I'm going to move this to the cafe where it will be more visible. I can't think of any reason it needs to stay in the Backyard.

Cool, and thanks. It was only in backyard because the front page of the forum confused me. I havent used the forum since it changed. Realised after it submitted it here it would be better off in the main, but i'm not one to cross post.

[matthew]

Cool, and thanks. It was only in backyard because the front page of the forum confused me. I havent used the forum since it changed. Realised after it submitted it here it would be better off in the main, but i'm not one to cross post.I hope you get good participation. BTW, if you ever need anything moved in the future, feel free to PM any of the staff.

[Kobalt]

Cool stuff !! Ubnuntu user #143

[Mathiasdm]

Hooray! #250 :)

I'm very curious how many people would register.

[pchr]

Hooray! #250 :)

I'm very curious how many people would register.

I did (262) mainly to get a low number if it does take off to 10000000's (fingers crossed)

:)

We can put them in sigs I guess.

[sapo]

Nice, already added it to my Blog:

http://yacoding.blogspot.com

[meldra]

We can put them in sigs I guess.

Yup, that's the point of them. Although it's a bit hard here :(

Anyway, thanks for the interest everyone. It's taking off better than I expected. As I write this, the newest user is #323 and Diggs are up to 45.

W00t!

[slimdog360]

329 and feeling fine

[TecnoVM64]

#310 here :D
w00t

[RAV TUX]

Nice, I registered and added the button to my signature.

[teolemon]

You should add the possibility for users to locate themselves on a map.
Perhaps a bit more integration with UbuntuForums to quickly gain more users.
And should it turn successful, you should buy a domain name.

Perhaps collaborating with LC as well ?
Open-sourcing both LC and UC to improve things on both sides and enable other distros to do the same kind of things.

Those are a few random ideas from a newly registered ubuntu user.;)

EDIT: removed formatting created by google toolbar spellchecker and added wink

[Lord Illidan]

Number 355 here!

[meldra]

Nice, I registered and added the button to my signature.

How? the IMG BBcode is disabled, is it not?

[Mykewl]

How does one put there button in there signature ?

[matthew]

How does one put there button in there signature ?Graphics are disabled in sigs for everyone except staff. The best option would be to make a link like I did.

[RAV TUX]

Nice, I registered and added the button to my signature.

EDIT: I changed the button in my signature and replaced it with my old avatar.

I wanted to change my avatar but wanted to keep the Escher.


Graphics are disabled in sigs for everyone except staff. The best option would be to make a link like I did.

I didn't realize this, I thought it was just a function I never noticed before.

Thanks for the 411.

[mhancoc7]

Cool: 1980

[djsroknrol]

User #1983 here..it seems to be growing very rapidly..

[mike998]

Darn it! I got user # 1997 - it would have been a LOT better if it had of been 1998 (check my username for those who don't get it!) ;)

[pchr]

Darn it! I got user # 1997 - it would have been a LOT better if it had of been 1998 (check my username for those who don't get it!) ;)

Perhaps people will be willing to trade numbers? ;) I'd quite like something with a 72 in it.

[Saltydog17]

Up to #2461.

[meldra]

..it seems to be growing very rapidly..

Indeed it is. I didn't think it would get this popular this quick. It's quite incredible.

Over the past day I've added a few more stats, which are basically calculations of relationships of stats already there, for those of us who do not have calculators embedded in our craniums. I could probably add a few more.. but only a few. Suggestions welcome.

Also, there will be some minor structural change within the next few hours or so, to minimise the database load.

Thanks again to everyone who has signed up. You're all awesome!

[GStubbs43]

I feel good... I got a really low number (sorta) #97

[Christmas]

I registered too. I'm the Ubuntu user number 2542. I also posted some informations and statistics about this project on my blog.

LE: I can't understand this thing. How comes my number is 2542 and the Current Statistics show that only 2531 users registered?
"Your Ubuntu User number is # 2542" "Current Statistics: 2531 Users with 3917 Machines"

[meldra]

I can't understand this thing. How comes my number is 2542 and the Current Statistics show that only 2531 users registered?

Read the part under 'versions' and 'newest'. It reads "Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts. Traitors! ;)"

Quite a few accounts were created then deleted when people who found the site via Digg decided to try exploits.

[Christmas]

Read the part under 'versions' and 'newest'. It reads "Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts. Traitors! "

Quite a few accounts were created then deleted when people who found the site via Digg decided to try exploits.
Oh I see. Thanks for the explanation.

[meldra]

Just thought I'd post an update.

It is currently Sunday, July 23, 2006 at 08:54:37 UTC and there are:
2917 Users with 4738 Machines


The growth has been awesome. Can you believe it's only 4 days old?! (Started at Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC)

Thanks once again to everyone who joined up. Feel free to mention it in whatever forum/irc/mailing-list you feel it would benefit from being mentioned on.

[adam.tropics]

Read the part under 'versions' and 'newest'. It reads "Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts. Traitors! ;)"

Quite a few accounts were created then deleted when people who found the site via Digg decided to try exploits.

Not that it matters, but presumably, that would mean you could re-issue those accounts and therefore keep the numbers as they would ideally be?

[RAV TUX]

current stats 5:06am EST Sunday July 23, 2006:


2919 Users with 4739 Machines

Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntu.com/)

Machines: 3805
Kubuntu (http://www.kubuntu.com/)

Machines: 656
Edubuntu (http://www.edubuntu.com/)

Machines: 30
Xubuntu (http://www.xubuntu.com/)

Machines: 226
Fluxbuntu (http://www.fluxbuntu.org/)

Machines: 9
Nubuntu (http://www.nubuntu.org/)

Machines: 13

Versions

Warty: 4
Hoary: 41
Breezy: 263
Dapper: 4335
Edgy: 96

Newest

The newest Ubuntu User is:
m3phistos (# 2938)
The newest Ubuntu Machine is:
AMD2800 (Ubuntu Dapper)
The newest Ubuntu Cluster is:
domanski (4 × Ubuntu Dapper)
Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts.
Fun statistics!

Machines per user: 1.62350119904
Machines running latest stable version: 91.4749947246%
Machines running development version: 2.02574382781%
Machines running versions still supported: 99.9155940072%

The Ubuntu Counter Project was launched on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC

pretty awesome stat for 4 days after the project launch.

[meldra]

Jozef,

Just a suggestion, feel free to reject it.. but..

how's about a sticky ;)

[slimdog360]

I cant believe how quickly this grew, there must be a lot of people using Ubuntu. Im 329.

[RAV TUX]

Jozef,

Just a suggestion, feel free to reject it.. but..

how's about a sticky ;)

I'll present it for consideration.

[adam.tropics]

Meldra, just an entirely unethical suggestion, but just put a link to this thread on the registration page, and suggest people come display their new number here. That should keep you at the top of the list for a while!! (don't do it...bad idea really!)

[RAV TUX]

I wish you great success with this fun project and after consulting with the rest of the forum staff, I will now make it a sticky thread.


Jozef

[RAV TUX]

latest statistics:


Current Statistics

3263 Users with 5146 Machines

Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntu.com/)

Machines: 4111
Kubuntu (http://www.kubuntu.com/)

Machines: 736
Edubuntu (http://www.edubuntu.com/)

Machines: 32
Xubuntu (http://www.xubuntu.com/)

Machines: 242
Fluxbuntu (http://www.fluxbuntu.org/)

Machines: 10
Nubuntu (http://www.nubuntu.org/)

Machines: 15

Versions

Warty: 5
Hoary: 44
Breezy: 297
Dapper: 4691
Edgy: 109

Newest

The newest Ubuntu User is:
brian (# 3290)
The newest Ubuntu Machine is:
cyclops (Kubuntu Dapper)
The newest Ubuntu Cluster is:
fisyco (2 × Ubuntu Dapper)
Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts.
Fun statistics!

Machines per user: 1.57707631014
Machines running latest stable version: 91.1581811115%
Machines running development version: 2.11815001943%
Machines running versions still supported: 99.9028371551%

The Ubuntu Counter Project was launched on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC

[meldra]

It's nothing short of incredible, imho.

Just a reminder to people:

Spread the word! LUG and other linux mailing lists, forums etc. Add to your footers and signatures!

I know there's more than 3000 users out there!

[adam.tropics]

Meldra
Nice to see this done by an Aussie too!

[RAV TUX]

Current Statistics

3519 Users with 5453 Machines

Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntu.com/)

Machines: 4342
Kubuntu (http://www.kubuntu.com/)

Machines: 800
Edubuntu (http://www.edubuntu.com/)

Machines: 32
Xubuntu (http://www.xubuntu.com/)

Machines: 254
Fluxbuntu (http://www.fluxbuntu.org/)

Machines: 10
Nubuntu (http://www.nubuntu.org/)

Machines: 15

Versions

Warty: 5
Hoary: 45
Breezy: 316
Dapper: 4968
Edgy: 119

Newest

The newest Ubuntu User is:
lichihua (# 3546)
The newest Ubuntu Machine is:
peter (Ubuntu Dapper)
The newest Ubuntu Cluster is:
blueworld (2 × Kubuntu Dapper)
Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts.
Fun statistics!

Machines per user: 1.55
Machines running latest stable version: 91.106%
Machines running development version: 2.182%
Machines running versions still supported: 99.908%

The Ubuntu Counter Project was launched on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC

still going strong!

[T313C0mun1s7]

OK, I registered. Now everyone run and join the TeamUbuntu Folding@Home project.

http://folding.extremeoverclocking.com/sigs/sigimage.php?u=188072
http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-blogger.php?user=3684

[RAV TUX]

latest update:


Current Statistics

4182 Users with 6205 Machines

Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntu.com/)

Machines: 4915
Kubuntu (http://www.kubuntu.com/)

Machines: 925
Edubuntu (http://www.edubuntu.com/)

Machines: 42
Xubuntu (http://www.xubuntu.com/)

Machines: 293
Fluxbuntu (http://www.fluxbuntu.org/)

Machines: 13
Nubuntu (http://www.nubuntu.org/)

Machines: 17

Versions

Warty: 5
Hoary: 48
Breezy: 374
Dapper: 5635
Edgy: 143

Newest

The newest Ubuntu User is:
ayoli (# 4214)
The newest Ubuntu Machine is:
laptop2 (Ubuntu Dapper)
The newest Ubuntu Cluster is:
Net2-WinNet (3 × Edubuntu Dapper)
Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts.
Fun statistics!

Machines per user: 1.484
Machines running latest stable version: 90.814%
Machines running development version: 2.305%
Machines running versions still supported: 99.919%

The Ubuntu Counter Project was launched on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC

[meldra]

Access statistics for July are now available. The report is an abridged Awstats snapshot, with some commentary. Enjoy :)

See the reports page (http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/reports.php) for the link to this report and on the page you will also note a link for the first weekly project report/snapshot that I put up almost a week ago. A new weekly report will go up soon also, when the milestone arrives.

Enjoy.

[kostkon]

Quite a few accounts were created then deleted when people who found the site via Digg decided to try exploits.

Interesting!

As you can see from my sig I'm #4719!!

Congratulations for this nice project.

[infoseeker]

Your Ubuntu User number is # 5590
:D
PS. How do I add the info to my sig. Thx.

[meldra]

At the top of the forum pages, you should see a pale brown bar that has things like "Forum Home Gallery Guidelines User CP New Posts Search Quick Links Log Out"

Choose the "User CP" option. In one of the tabs down the side you should see signature stuff.

Have fun :)

[RAV TUX]

another update:


Current Statistics

6113 Users with 9848 Machines

Ubuntu (http://www.ubuntu.com/)

Machines: 7830
Kubuntu (http://www.kubuntu.com/)

Machines: 1493
Edubuntu (http://www.edubuntu.com/)

Machines: 70
Xubuntu (http://www.xubuntu.com/)

Machines: 414
Fluxbuntu (http://www.fluxbuntu.org/)

Machines: 23
Nubuntu (http://www.nubuntu.org/)

Machines: 18

Versions

Warty: 6
Hoary: 93
Breezy: 594
Dapper: 8938
Edgy: 217

Newest

The newest Ubuntu User is:
naviurq (# 6161)
The newest Ubuntu Machine is:
macc (Kubuntu Dapper)
The newest Ubuntu Cluster is:
102a (24 × Ubuntu Dapper)
Please note: User total and Newest user numbers will differ as people delete their accounts.
Fun statistics!

Machines per user: 1.611
Machines running latest stable version: 90.76%
Machines running development version: 2.203%
Machines running versions still supported: 99.939%

The Ubuntu Counter Project was launched on Wednesday, July 19, 2006 at 15:20 UTC

[Mathiasdm]

0.36%, apparently, that's the marketshare Linux has. (http://www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox46-operating-systems-market-share.html)

It's posted by OneStat.com, which is a rather unbiased source. I thought it was hard to believe at first, but I doubt they're lying.

Normally, I wouldn't really care about this. As long as Linux works for me, I'm happy.
However, it got me thinking... If we really have only 0.36% of the desktop market... How are we ever going to get major software companies to release their software for us?

How are we ever going to get NVidia and ATI to release open source drivers?

Damn... It was a bit of a shock!

Edit: a strange thing... I just found an earlier press-release (2003) (http://www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox24.html). In this one, Linux has about 0.5% market share.
I doubt market share has gone DOWN in recent years. Perhaps there has been an error?
Edit2: in 2002, Linux has a 0.26% market share (http://www.onestat.com/html/aboutus_pressbox10.html)

[win_zik]

Take a deep breath and take a look at what they actually measure:

Methodology: A global usage share of xx percent for OS Y means that xx percent of the visitors of Internet users arrived at sites that are using one of OneStat.com's services by using the particular number of OS Y. All numbers mentioned in the research are averages and all measurements are normalised to the GMT timezone. Research is based on a sample of 2 million visitors divided into 20,000 visitors of 100 countries each day.

So while this statistic may be interesting, or informative, or whatever, it certainly doesn't reflect the actual market share of linux (on the desktop).
Google for the IDC numbers for example. IIRC they put linux on the desktop on a much higher marketshare.

[asimon]

Methodology: A global usage share of xx percent for OS Y means that xx percent of the visitors of Internet users arrived at sites that are using one of OneStat.com's services by using the particular number of OS Y.
So much for _market_ research. The market here means visitors of OneStat.com.

I prefer numbers from distrowatch, they are not as biased. ;-)

[Mathiasdm]

It's not just numbers from OneStat.com.
They provide website analysis tools. In other words: things like web counters.
Considering they have over 50 000 clients, I thought their analysis would be quite correct ;)

[kabus]

How are we ever going to get NVidia and ATI to release open source drivers?


Most hardware companies don't own all the IP that goes into their products, so they can't just open up their drivers. It has little to do with market share.

[win_zik]

Most hardware companies don't own all the IP that goes into their products, so they can't just open up their drivers. It has little to do with market share.

That's a convenient defence some hardware companies like to put forth. However, that doesn't meant that it's true, does it?

[kabus]

That's a convenient defence some hardware companies like to put forth. However, that doesn't meant that it's true, does it?

Why not?
Why would they need a defence?

[bjweeks]

That's a convenient defence some hardware companies like to put forth. However, that doesn't meant that it's true, does it?

You think ATI is lying just to make us happy? They could just as well tell us to go screw ourselves.

[win_zik]

Why not?
Why would they need a defence?

Why they need a defence? Simply because they chose to answer those who are critical of their no open source drivers policy.

Why you shouldn't believe it at face value?
Simply because you shouldn't believe anything at face value, now should you?

Also the argument doesn't make a lot of sense. If for example ATI are using technology patented by someone else, the patented technology is out in the open anyway. That's the very nature of patents.

Further, releasing drivers that use this patented technology is in not enfringing any patent, now is it? It's just enabling customers to use the patented technology ATI has licensed.

[win_zik]

You think ATI is lying just to make us happy? They could just as well tell us to go screw ourselves.

But they don't. Now what does this tell us?

[kabus]

Why they need a defence? Simply because they chose to answer those who are critical of their no open source drivers policy.


So if they just said "Screw you, FOSS community, we don't like you!", would that change anything?



Why you shouldn't believe it at face value?
Simply because you shouldn't believe anything at face value, now should you?


Well that sounds like good general advice, but how does what I believe to be true matter in this particular case?



Also the argument doesn't make a lot of sense. If for example ATI are using technology patented by someone else, the patented technology is out in the open anyway. That's the very nature of patents.


"Out in the open" isn't quite the same as "anybody can use it", is it?
Or why would people fight software patents otherwise?
(IANAL, so please enlighten me).

[bjweeks]

So if they just said "Screw you, FOSS community, we don't like you!", would that change anything?

No, but if they didn't care we wouldn't have drivers and they wouldn't give us reasons for not open sourcing their dirvers.

[win_zik]

So if they just said "Screw you, FOSS community, we don't like you!", would that change anything?

Huh, where did I suggest it would?



Well that sounds like good general advice, but how does what I believe to be true matter in this particular case?

Huh? So what you believe to be true does not matter here? Why?



"Out in the open" isn't quite the same as "anybody can use it", is it?

Yes and open sourcing something doesn't mean "anybody can use it". So your point is?

[asimon]

It's not just numbers from OneStat.com.
They provide website analysis tools. In other words: things like web counters.
Considering they have over 50 000 clients, I thought their analysis would be quite correct ;)
At least it's surely correct for the number of their clients, but for all we know their customers could be composed to 95% of Microsoft service shops, i.e. sites which the common Linux, BSD, Apple or whatever user doesn't visit often. I think it's wrong to make conclusions from their numbers to over-all markets. Anyway, there is no single OS market, there are many and they are quite different too (compare the market for home users with the os market for high performance computing or for embedded systems) and this web service company doesn't even reach to all of them, still they speak of a single market. They only mean their own market.


Most hardware companies don't own all the IP that goes into their products, so they can't just open up their drivers. It has little to do with market share.
If there is a will they can. We speak here about multi-billion dollar companies. They could easily afford the dollars to hire developers who can program their chips without the need use third party IP.

And regarding their "trande secrets", I woudln't be surprised if they include a lot of cheating for popular graphics benchmarks or include patented stuff, but patented not by them. ;-)

I think market share has a little bit to do with it. A big part of their money comes from people who run propritary software (when it comes to the expensive high-end cards, often games) on a propritary operating system. These customers don't care if their graphic card drivers are propritary too.

[kabus]

Huh, where did I suggest it would?


If you didn't I apologise, although this wasn't clear in your last reply and I am wondering why you brought up the point at all if it doesn't make a difference.




Huh? So what you believe to be true does not matter here? Why?


Because it doesn't change the fact that a hardware company can do whatever they want and I have no means to pressure them?



Yes and open sourcing something doesn't mean "anybody can use it". So your point is?


I don't know, you're the expert.
What's the reason for a company to not open up all their drivers if it essentially doesn't matter?
No need to be agressive, btw, I just wanna be educated.

[win_zik]

If you didn't I apologise, although this wasn't clear in your last reply and I am wondering why you brought up the point at all if it doesn't make a difference.

I'm sorry. I'm confused here. What point did I bring up in regard to this issue?



Because it doesn't change the fact that a hardware company can do whatever they want and I have no means to pressure them?

Well, first off, you are a customer, so you do have a, albeit limited, way of pressuring them.
Further, wasn't the issue here that you imho uncritically repeated a claim made by some hardware companies?



I don't know, you're the expert.
What's the reason for a company to not open up all their drivers if it essentially doesn't matter?
No need to be agressive, btw, I just wanna be educated.
First off, sorry if I came off as aggressive. It wasn't my intention.

About why they don't open source their drivers one can only speculate. Personally I think that for many this concept of open source is still quite alien, so it takes time till companies and people adopt to it.

Also there might be other issues, for example stuff in the drivers that works around hardware bugs etc. that they don't want the world to see.

Anyway, whatever their reasons might be, my initial point was that simply repeating a claim made by some hardware companies and taking it uncritically isn't a good idea.

[slimdog360]

it imagine that 0.36% is still quite a few people.

[kabus]

I'm sorry. I'm confused here. What point did I bring up in regard to this issue?



That's a convenient defence some hardware companies like to put forth.

Which begs several questions I'll leave as an exercise to the reader.



Further, wasn't the issue here that you imho uncritically repeated a claim made by some hardware companies?

You haven't made a particularly convincing case why I shouldn't just believe the hardware companies.
Instead of the rather simple and straightforward explanation they offer you can only give me speculation about the thought processes of the people involved and the quality of their products.
(See? I'm being critical here.)

[Carrots171]

Those figures aren't right. The IDC reports a much higher market share. Also, Linux is the fastest-growing OS in the world. It couldn't have gotten less popular, as OneStat seems to suggest.

[bjweeks]

Also, Linux is the fastest-growing OS in the world.

Really? How do you figure?

[Carrots171]

Really? How do you figure?

From a CNN article:cool::

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/05/18/global.office.linustorvalds/


Linux is the free software code developed by a global community of programmers. It's also the world's fastest growing operating system and number two behind Microsoft.

And guess what I found here (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/connected/main.jhtml?xml=/connected/2004/02/04/ecnconc04.xml&sSheet=/connected/2004/02/04/ixconnrite.html):


According to a survey by research company IDC, Linux has now grabbed 25pc of the market for new operating systems in servers since its introduction in the early 1990s, compared with Microsoft at 50pc.

IDC says that just 2.8pc of the personal computers sold in 2002 ran Linux, just behind Apple.

...so as of 2002 Linux had a market share of 25% in new operating systems on servers and 2.8% on desktops. And being the fastest-growing operating system in the world, it can only be more today in 2006. :D

EDIT: Note that the CNN article says "number two behind Microsoft". "Number two behind Microsoft" cannot be 0.36%!

[bjweeks]

Well if you count servers, yes. Otherwise OSX is #2.

[prizrak]

It is very difficult to give good metrics on OS market shares aside from OS X. They are usually based on sales figures and alot of Linux is completely free (as in beer) and is just downloaded. It is also hard to go by downloads as many download a bunch of distro's to try and then go back to Windows. With Windows you got the opposite issue. As most machines come with Windows Linux users might buy them but then wipe the drive and put Linux on it (or BSD or w/e else they happen to use). Last estimation I saw put Linux equal to OS X @ 5% each and Windows at 90%. This is just desktop those the server market is different. In the server Windows is 49% and Linux 25%.

NOTE: Those figures are just the stuff I've come around on the net news so they may not be very accurate. I think that it's about right though.

[bjweeks]

No way desktop linux is anywhere near OSX.

[bruce89]

No way desktop linux is anywhere near OSX.

Where's your proof?

To be honest, does it matter? I mean, we use it, and surely that's all that matters.

[bjweeks]

Where's your proof?

Lets see, Macs have been a major player for what, 15 years? and desktop linux for n00bs just kinda(not all the way there yet) became a reality? Really I bet schools that use Macs alone could top the ubuntu user base.

Edit: Proof, http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

Acording to that Intel Macs have a higher market share than linux... :rolleyes:

[forrestcupp]

Where's your proof?

To be honest, does it matter? I mean, we use it, and surely that's all that matters.

The reason it matters is because of leverage. What I'm about to say is an illustration, not an invitation to religious discussion. When Universal Studios came out with the movie "The Last Temptation of Christ" my dad decided to boycott every movie created by Universal Studios. As you can tell, Universal Studios is still doing very well. One person boycotting them didn't make much difference. It's the same with Linux users. The market share is low, and on top of that, there is no way to prove market share like there is with commercial OS's. Therefore commercial developers tend to look at us as a mosquito on their arm. Which is why we're still waiting around on Flash 9, and better game support, etc. (if you oppose or don't care about these things, that's your free choice).

But there are plenty of other threads to discuss why linux doesn't have a bigger market share, or even if it should.

[bruce89]

The reason why Linux stats are so low is becuase it is difficult to identify them from the browser user agent string.

The reason it matters is because of leverage. What I'm about to say is an illustration, not an invitation to religious discussion. When Universal Studios came out with the movie "The Last Temptation of Christ" my dad decided to boycott every movie created by Universal Studios. As you can tell, Universal Studios is still doing very well. One person boycotting them didn't make much difference. It's the same with Linux users. The market share is low, and on top of that, there is no way to prove market share like there is with commercial OS's. Therefore commercial developers tend to look at us as a mosquito on their arm. Which is why we're still waiting around on Flash 9, and better game support, etc. (if you oppose or don't care about these things, that's your free choice).
Makes sense.

W3Schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp) has it differently; Linux 3.5%, Mac 3.6%, Windows, the rest. The Linux share is increasing all the time here too, but slowly.

Stats with a small %ge of Linux share could be old, or from Windows-centric sites, for instance, these forums won't get much Windows traffic.

[forrestcupp]

[QUOTE=bruce89;1378030

W3Schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp) has it differently; Linux 3.5%, Mac 3.6%, Windows, the rest. The Linux share is increasing all the time here too, but slowly.

Stats with a small %ge of Linux share could be old, or from Windows-centric sites, for instance, these forums won't get much Windows traffic.[/QUOTE]

When I read this, I was wondering if they just had the decimal point in the wrong place. .36% or 3.6%

[win_zik]

Which begs several questions I'll leave as an exercise to the reader.

Really, there's no need to be trolling.
Did I say anything that could be understood as claiming that if hardware companies said screw you this would be better?
No, I didn't, so stop acting as if I did.



You haven't made a particularly convincing case why I shouldn't just believe the hardware companies.
Instead of the rather simple and straightforward explanation they offer you can only give me speculation about the thought processes of the people involved and the quality of their products.
(See? I'm being critical here.)
OH, feel free to be critical, however, the issue I addressed was you uncritically repeating one argument some hardware companies like to make.
I pointed out why this is a bad idea and why the argument is flawed.

I never claimed, nor was it my intention to explain the reasons for those companies not open sourcing their drivers. So, stop acting as if I set out to do so.

Oh and simple and streightforward doesn't meant correct, does it?

[bjweeks]

Really, OSX has tons more market share that linux as it stands today no idea where they got those numbers.

[win_zik]

Really, OSX has tons more market share that linux as it stands today no idea where they got those numbers.

Then use google.
Some research firm (I think it was IDC) claimed not so long ago that the market share of linux on the desktop and OSX is about the same.

Simply repeating your opinion without backing it up again and again is only a very bad substitute for an argument.

[bruce89]

When I read this, I was wondering if they just had the decimal point in the wrong place. .36% or 3.6%

I never thought of that actually.


Really, OSX has tons more market share that linux as it stands today no idea where they got those numbers.
Not sure where you got yours from.


Simply repeating your opinion without backing it up again and again is only a very bad substitute for an argument.
Definately.

[prizrak]

Lets see, Macs have been a major player for what, 15 years? and desktop linux for n00bs just kinda(not all the way there yet) became a reality? Really I bet schools that use Macs alone could top the ubuntu user base.

Edit: Proof, http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

Acording to that Intel Macs have a higher market share than linux... :rolleyes:

Macs have been a major player for 30 years. However they are still at 5%, Linux is used fairly extensively in Asia especially poorer countries. Like I said Linux is very difficult to judge. Alot of people dual boot, alot buy Apple/MS preinstalled on a PC and then put Linux on it. Ubuntu's estimated userbase is at 6 million people (probably measured by unique IP hits in repos, not too accurate I know), which is a fairly large number and it's not the only distro around.

[bruce89]

Completely unscientific -
http://www.google.com/trends?q=Mac%2C+linux&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all
http://www.google.com/trends/viz?q=Mac,+linux&date=all&geo=all&graph=weekly_img&sa=N
Red=Linux
Blue=Mac

If you change Mac to MacOS, the line for it is non-existant.

[Mathiasdm]

The reason why Linux stats are so low is becuase it is difficult to identify them from the browser user agent string.

Makes sense.

W3Schools (http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp) has it differently; Linux 3.5%, Mac 3.6%, Windows, the rest. The Linux share is increasing all the time here too, but slowly.

Stats with a small %ge of Linux share could be old, or from Windows-centric sites, for instance, these forums won't get much Windows traffic.

Bad example. W3schools is for webmasters, and will receive a very tech-oriented audience. That's why Linux marketshare is pretty high.

@The guy who says Macs have a higher market share, since they've had a user-friendly OS much longer than Linux: Opera vs. Firefox. Need I say more?

[kabus]

Really, there's no need to be trolling.


If I behaved like you did in this thread I'd be careful about throwing around that word.



Did I say anything that could be understood as claiming that if hardware companies said screw you this would be better?
No, I didn't, so stop acting as if I did.


Neither did I, I just asked you why hardware companies need to defend themselves and against what or whom.



I never claimed, nor was it my intention to explain the reasons for those companies not open sourcing their drivers. So, stop acting as if I set out to do so.


That actually was the premise of our whole conversation, if you care to look back at post #5 of this thread, and your response to it. If it wasn't your intention to shed some light on this you probably should have stayed out of the thread.



Oh and simple and streightforward doesn't meant correct, does it?

"I never said that, so stop acting as if I did."
Uh, looks like I've learned a new trick from the school of cheap internet sophistry.

BTW, didn't you once post here as "helpme"? Your style of "arguing" is awfully similar.

[bruce89]

Could you leave your argueing out of this please?

[bobbybobington]

If i had to judge from just what I've seen people running on their computers, I'd say OSX is alot more than Linux, but thats just in my area. I'm sure china and other asian counties have alot higher linux usage there, for obvious reasons. But i can't say I've seen another linux box in my area (though im sure there are alot more).

[kabus]

Could you leave your argueing out of this please?

Click on username -> View Public Profile -> Add kabus to Your Ignore List

Solved.

[bruce89]

Click on username -> View Public Profile -> Add kabus to Your Ignore List

Solved.

Not arguing with me, so I don't mind really, it just wastes time.

[win_zik]

That actually was the premise of our whole conversation, if you care to look back at post #5 of this thread, and your response to it. If it wasn't your intention to shed some light on this you probably should have stayed out of the thread.


LOL. You sure are some funny dude.
No, it wasn't actually:
You said:

Most hardware companies don't own all the IP that goes into their products, so they can't just open up their drivers. It has little to do with market share.

I answered:

That's a convenient defence some hardware companies like to put forth. However, that doesn't meant that it's true, does it?

[EdThaSlayer]

hmmmm...it is quite a small marketshare(i expected something like 2 or 4 % considering there are 500 different tastes of Linux)
But if you count the number of computers in the world...it goes to quite a high number...

[kabus]

LOL. You sure are some funny dude.
No, it wasn't actually:
You said:
I answered:

I was just assuming that you were acting in good faith and actually wanted to talk about the topic under discussion instead of being into it just for the argument's sake.
It doesn't matter anymore now, I'll just add you to my ignore list along with your old nick.

---

Sorry everybody for contributing to the noise here.

[forrestcupp]

All of the argument is between a couple of people who are talking about something that is totally off topic. The original topic was not about opensourcing drivers, etc. Everyone else has been talking about the topic: Marketshare.

[Christmas]

It's like UbuntuForums.org saying that that Ubuntu has 95% marketshare just because 95% of the visitors of UbuntuForums.org are using Linux. Or DistroWatch or any other Linux-based site.

LE: Well I know Linux doesn't have too much marketshare, but 0,36%? That's impossible.

[Mathiasdm]

All of the argument is between a couple of people who are talking about something that is totally off topic. The original topic was not about opensourcing drivers, etc. Everyone else has been talking about the topic: Marketshare.

I agree!
Ast the topic-starter (:p ), I demand a cease-fire between the two of you. If you wish to carry on, start your own topic!

Anyways, here's a different take on Linux market share.
I did some research, some time ago (that's one of the reasons why I started this thread, 0.36% was so surprising after my research).

I'm going to do a bit of guessing (sadly, there's no way to know if it's accurate)...
First way:
On w3schools.com, a fairly tech oriented web site, firefox accounts for 25% of market share. Total market share (give or take 2 %) is about 10%.

If we (probably totally incorrect) extrapolate this to Linux market share (assuming that Linux market share on w3schools is 2.5 times higher than on 'regular' websites), we would get about 1.3 % market share.

Second way:
According to IDC (I can't find a direct link, only this ZDnet post - not so reliable), Linux had a market share of 2.8% , at the end of 2003!

Third way:
My next stop was going to be the Linux counter project. Sadly, the site's not working right now.
However, I remember (from a few months back) that the author guessed the total amount of Linux users at 29 million.

Total number of PC's in use in the world: 900 million.
Market share: 3.2 %.

Conclusion: Linux market share is probably between 2-3%.

Is this correct? Nobody knows!

[v8YKxgHe]

There is no real way of knowing. With Windows and Mac you have to pay for them, so they can get numbers from the sales.

What if I was to give my friend a Ubuntu CD, and his PC doesn't have internet - then if he gives the CD to his friend who doesn't have internet etc etc etc. There could be thousands/millions of PC's out there running Linux with no Internet - and we wouldn't know about it and they are not beeing counted as market share because ..... there is no way of knowing they have it.

The best way imo to get market share for linux users that use the internet, is for Google to release some stats. Beeing the most used search engine ( I think ) that would have the most accurate stats?

[Christmas]

First way:
On w3schools.com, a fairly tech oriented web site, firefox accounts for 25% of market share. Total market share (give or take 2 %) is about 10%.

If we (probably totally incorrect) extrapolate this to Linux market share (assuming that Linux market share on w3schools is 2.5 times higher than on 'regular' websites), we would get about 1.3 % market share.
There are many, many Windows users that use Firefox. I was using Firefox, IE and Opera when I was on Windows.

[Christmas]

The best way imo to get market share for linux users that use the internet, is for Google to release some stats. Beeing the most used search engine ( I think ) that would have the most accurate stats?
Yes, this would be a great idea! They didn't do something like this until today?

[forrestcupp]

Another thing is, the count for Windows and Mac isn't exactly correct either. They count computers that were sold to people with Windows, or macos x preinstalled on them. Some of these computers were used to install Linux over the preinstalled os. I know this wouldn't make that much of a difference, but the difference is there.

[prizrak]

Another thing is, the count for Windows and Mac isn't exactly correct either. They count computers that were sold to people with Windows, or macos x preinstalled on them. Some of these computers were used to install Linux over the preinstalled os. I know this wouldn't make that much of a difference, but the difference is there.

As I've mentioned before the difference might be quite significant. While 99.9% of users would not use anything but OS X on Mac. Windows comes on alot of laptops and a good number of Linux users will get those and whipe them to install Linux very few buy actual preloaded Linux or naked laptops. There are also dual booters that are difficult to account for. One day they are on Windows giving one result another they are on Linux giving another result.

[win_zik]

Just take a look at the sites they are monitoring.
For example in the computers and internet category:
http://www.onestatfree.com/aspx/category-detail-charts.aspx?category=4

Biggest site by far:
ddlspot: Your #1 Spot for Full Version Warez Downloads.

[Carrots171]

The IDC study done in 2002 said that Linux's marketshare on the desktop was "just behind Mac", so I don't think that Mac has "much more" marketshare than Linux on the desktop.

[Christmas]

Not to mention the pirated copies of Windows XP, they are used in a very large percentage, so just counting the sales isn't accurate either.

[aleska]

I agree!
First way:
On w3schools.com, a fairly tech oriented web site, firefox accounts for 25% of market share. Total market share (give or take 2 %) is about 10%.

If we (probably totally incorrect) extrapolate this to Linux market share (assuming that Linux market share on w3schools is 2.5 times higher than on 'regular' websites), we would get about 1.3 % market share.


Actually, w3schools publishes it by OS as well, you just have to scroll down a bit. http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp That is where someone earlier got the data point that Linux has a browser share of 3.5% and Mac has 3.6%.

Of course using w3schools or any other service is going to have major associated caveats in terms of precision and accuracy. I agree that google would be the most definitive source. That would put the question to rest once and for all.

[BWF89]

If Linux did only have a 0.36% marketshare (which it would have to have more) I would be even more impressed with it's current harware and software emulation (WINE, Crossover Office, Cedega) capabilities.

[jonathansizz]

Well, I think the main point is that whether Ubuntu is used by 0.1% or 1% of people, it doesn't seem like it will ever become a mainstream OS, unfortunately.

I think people need to be a little more realistic here. Linux will probably always be a fringe OS and what we should be concerned about here is whether Shuttleworth will end up pulling the plug if he realises he can't make any money off Ubuntu.

[PenguinMan]

For notebook computers in the USA, Apple has 12% of the entire notebook market. Apple also had their best quarter ever for Macs sold. 1.3 million!!!

[aysiu]

This is the best research I could get on the net (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showpost.php?p=1384738&postcount=16) (IDC's website was difficult to navigate), and it puts Mac and Linux both at about 3% desktop market share.

[prizrak]

For notebook computers in the USA, Apple has 12% of the entire notebook market. Apple also had their best quarter ever for Macs sold. 1.3 million!!!


That doesn't surprise me. I'm surprised Apple even sells desktops at all, since no one I know has one. Plenty have the laptops though.


Well, I think the main point is that whether Ubuntu is used by 0.1% or 1% of people, it doesn't seem like it will ever become a mainstream OS, unfortunately.

I think people need to be a little more realistic here. Linux will probably always be a fringe OS and what we should be concerned about here is whether Shuttleworth will end up pulling the plug if he realises he can't make any money off Ubuntu.
Yeah Linux is a very fringe OS. That 25% of server share is damn small isn't it. :rolleyes: Considering that Lenovo is putting SLED on their T60 machines, and HP announced Debian support Linux is only going forward. Will it get to even 50% desktop share? Probably not but it is very likely to get about 20% of the market at which point it will be a viable player and get ISV attention.

Whether Shuttleworth pulls the plug or not makes no difference there is an Ubuntu community that will still develop it whether Canonical is there or not.

[jonathansizz]

Yeah Linux is a very fringe OS. That 25% of server share is damn small isn't it. :rolleyes:

Server usage is irrelevant in determining whether an OS is 'fringe' or not, as demonstrated by the 0.36% figures we are discussing (and particularly bearing in mind that this 0.36% is the combined total for dozens of linux-based OS's).


Will it get to even 50% desktop share? Probably not but it is very likely to get about 20% of the market at which point it will be a viable player and get ISV attention.

Where do you get these figures? What basis do you make the 20% claim on? After over a decade of being a media darling and having big companies pumping millions into it, linux has made very little impact on the desktop. SLED notwithstanding, what reasons have we for thinking this will change?



Whether Shuttleworth pulls the plug or not makes no difference there is an Ubuntu community that will still develop it whether Canonical is there or not.

But if he does pull the plug, it will have a big effect on Ubuntu's uptake, once the publicity he generates (and the free CD's he distributes) dries up.

[prizrak]

Server usage is irrelevant in determining whether an OS is 'fringe' or not, as demonstrated by the 0.36% figures we are discussing (and particularly bearing in mind that this 0.36% is the combined total for dozens of linux-based OS's).
a) A fringe OS is an OS that is not used by many. 25% of the server market is hardly fringe. Also note that there are more servers than PC's especially with clustering being so popular.
b) The 0.36% figure is plain wrong, I have not seen a single other source that rates Linux market share at less than 3% on the desktop.



Where do you get these figures? What basis do you make the 20% claim on? After over a decade of being a media darling and having big companies pumping millions into it, linux has made very little impact on the desktop. SLED notwithstanding, what reasons have we for thinking this will change?

If servers are at 25% why wouldn't the desktop get to 20? Also Linux DESKTOP was not a media darling for a decade in fact it has been finally getting some coverage as a desktop OS for about a year or so. For the most part Linux has been marketed as a UNIX replacement not a Windows alternative. My basis for thinking it will change is the availability of actual desktop/laptop machines with Linux preinstalled. Lenovo got the SLED T60, there is also the System76 and EmperorLinux. When I started with Warty those things were nonexistant and that's only been like 2 years ago.

There is also the Asian market that is quite fond of Linux. From what I know Sony sells Linux preloaded laptops in Japan (probably Turbo Linux). China is trying to create their own distro just to get away from MS's dominance and control software piracy. India is moving heavily towards Linux for the same reasons as China. On the European front the EU is trying to break free from the US corporate grasp and is considering Linux. Germany in particular is a big proponent with entire city governments switching. In Russia the biggest software distributor in the country 1C has signed a deal to become an official distributor of Red Hat. All those things happened in the past 4-5 years. OS X on the other hand despite being around and marketed for so long is barely even on the radar of people who want to switch.

On a personal level I see a lot of people at the very least interested in Linux. I have a friend who is an environmental scientist switch to Ubuntu after trying to get Linux up and running since 2001. I got another friend who uses computers for nothing but web/email interested in trying out Ubuntu. I have been asked about Linux on the desktop in general by quite a few people who are not very computer savvy, they are at the very least interested in it or any other alternative to MS.


But if he does pull the plug, it will have a big effect on Ubuntu's uptake, once the publicity he generates (and the free CD's he distributes) dries up.

That is a very real possibility can't argue with you there. There is no guarantee it would happen but it is likely to.

[bjweeks]

a) A fringe OS is an OS that is not used by many. 25% of the server market is hardly fringe. Also note that there are more servers than PC's especially with clustering being so popular.

I'd think not.


b) The 0.36% figure is plain wrong, I have not seen a single other source that rates Linux market share at less than 3% on the desktop.

There is no accurate at all, most come from web stats that are very wrong.

[jonathansizz]

My basis for thinking it will change is the availability of actual desktop/laptop machines with Linux preinstalled. Lenovo got the SLED T60

You obviously didn't read the news (http://www.linuxplanet.com/linuxplanet/newss/6298/1/)

Look, I hope you are right that Linux takes off, but I just don't see any reason (other than wishful thinking) for believing it will. Microsoft are just far too powerful. It's not like it's Linux's fault - unless Microsoft really drops the ball, nobody can shift them.

It's Microsoft's market to lose, and if things do start to get rough for them, they just need to turn things up a notch and do just enough to maintain their monopoly. Witness IE7 in response to Firefox, for example. They just do the minimum, because that's all they have to do.

[prizrak]

I'd think not.

And by that you mean? Are there not as many servers? Is the OS still considered fringe even if it has a 25% server market share? Do you not like my definition of fringe?



There is no accurate at all, most come from web stats that are very wrong.

If you are trying to say that all the statistics for OS usage are wrong I will agree with you. There is no real way to track them

[bjweeks]

Are there not as many servers?

Yes.



If you are trying to say that all the statistics for OS usage are wrong I will agree with you. There is no real way to track them

Well we could track sales of Mac Vs Windows but witht the new intel chips it doesn't hold as much water.

[prizrak]

You obviously didn't read the news
You are correct I didn't see this until just now. Better than nothing I guess but nowhere as good as it was gonna be :(

Look, I hope you are right that Linux takes off, but I just don't see any reason (other than wishful thinking) for believing it will. Microsoft are just far too powerful. It's not like it's Linux's fault - unless Microsoft really drops the ball, nobody can shift them.

It's Microsoft's market to lose, and if things do start to get rough for them, they just need to turn things up a notch and do just enough to maintain their monopoly. Witness IE7 in response to Firefox, for example. They just do the minimum, because that's all they have to do.
Reply With Quote
I guess time will tell. There are plenty of countries that are just entering the information age and that is where we should focus.

[prizrak]

Well we could track sales of Mac Vs Windows but witht the new intel chips it doesn't hold as much water.
Well Mac maybe but Windows not so much. While the sales figures can be tracked there are plenty of pirated Windows as well as alt OS users buying Windows preloaded machines just to use Linux. (I had to do that).

[aysiu]

Look, I hope you are right that Linux takes off, but I just don't see any reason (other than wishful thinking) for believing it will. Microsoft are just far too powerful. It's not like it's Linux's fault - unless Microsoft really drops the ball, nobody can shift them. You might want to read the history of Wal-Mart. They weren't always the super-power store they are now... not even in the 1980s.

[Adamant1988]

That doesn't surprise me. I'm surprised Apple even sells desktops at all, since no one I know has one. Plenty have the laptops though.


Yeah Linux is a very fringe OS. That 25% of server share is damn small isn't it. :rolleyes: Considering that Lenovo is putting SLED on their T60 machines, and HP announced Debian support Linux is only going forward. Will it get to even 50% desktop share? Probably not but it is very likely to get about 20% of the market at which point it will be a viable player and get ISV attention.

Whether Shuttleworth pulls the plug or not makes no difference there is an Ubuntu community that will still develop it whether Canonical is there or not.
You might want to check your facts though. The T60 *does not* come with linux preinstalled, it's jut a blank laptop, you have to purchase and add SLED 10 or any other distro to it.

I found these statistics a couple days ago and was reading about them, I don't trust them so much I figure linux market share lies between 2-3%, that's just my estimate, but it seems as though determined who's using linux is a process of exclusion (so many people are using A,and B, everyone else must be using C) on most of these websites.. idk.

[DoctorMO]

Look, I hope you are right that Linux takes off, but I just don't see any reason (other than wishful thinking) for believing it will. Microsoft are just far too powerful. It's not like it's Linux's fault - unless Microsoft really drops the ball, nobody can shift them.

To be honest under dogs are worth fighting for, never give up, never stop wanting or wishing or creating. the world looks like an imposible place but most of the time thats what some people want you to think.

Even if Microsoft remains powerful, I won't stop.

[krazyd]

Here are some more stats putting linux at 0.44%
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

...but (possibly) going up!
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5

[prizrak]

You might want to check your facts though. The T60 *does not* come with linux preinstalled, it's jut a blank laptop, you have to purchase and add SLED 10 or any other distro to it.

Been addressed earlier. I read the news report, yes they do not load SLED on the T60. They DO provide an option of a blank laptop and TFT's, drivers and phone support for Linux. Also according to the news source Lenovo will not be preloading SLED their distributors however may do so at their discretion, which was the reason for a blank laptop, to not force SLED onto the distributors. Still a huge step though, that's the first time I hear of a major OEM actually providing their custom programs for Linux not to mention phone support.

NOTE: The T60 is not a consumer laptop it is a very powerful machine aimed mostly at engineers. Just wanted to make it clear that it's not something your gramma would get.

[bjweeks]

You might want to read the history of Wal-Mart. They weren't always the super-power store they are now... not even in the 1980s.

Yes, but there was no "super-power store" ethier.

[prizrak]

Yes, but there was no "super-power store" ethier.

Kmart

[Carrots171]

Here are some more stats putting linux at 0.44%
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=2

...but (possibly) going up!
http://marketshare.hitslink.com/report.aspx?qprid=5

Again, these stats are inaccurate because they are based on who visits a particular website.

[bjweeks]

Kmart

haha, I totally forgot about kmart :mrgreen:

[kopinux]

do they have plans improving the logo?
i think its pretty messed up.

[Cuppa-Chino]

signed up check signature

[NiceGuy]

I like the images for blogs etc you can get

http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-blogger.php?user=7959 (http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/)

but I decided to remake it:

http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/images/Ubuntu_user.gif (http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/)

and a Linux user one...

http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/images/Linux_user.gif (http://counter.li.org/)

Now thats fine BUT NOW I CAN'T STOP!!!

http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/images/Mark_Bowden.gif (http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/) http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/images/Coffee_Addict.gif (http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/) http://www.mark.bowdenonline.co.uk/images/Real_Ale.gif (http://www.camra.org.uk/)

Must... Stop... Making... Images... Nurrgh...

[d3v1ant_0n3]

I AM a number, I'm a free (as in beer) man!

[/stops quoting old tv shows]

Ubuntu user # 8622:D

[Russell John]

http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/img/ubuntu-user.php?user=8989

[alecjw]

Why do you think you cant use them in your avatar?;)

[GrimRazer]

Cool,
Registered!!! #9494
Nice number tho

[cvmostert]

not so cool number.but registered... I am very interrested in how many people use ubuntu dayly... ubuntu user #9601 and linux user # 435438

[Zdravko]

Why is Ubuntu so unpopular? I looked over the site
http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/


and learned that there are only about 9 500 people who actually use Ubuntu. Why is that? This forum has nearly 200 000 users - this is strange.

[Redache]

It's because not everyone
A) wants to be known on the net
B) knows about it
C) Cares about it.

Basically, I've done the Linux Counter and the Ubuntu Counter, but that's because I'm proud to use Linux.

[kuja]

Because only 9500 people have actually visited that site? It's not like it's official or anything.

[cantormath]

Why is Ubuntu so unpopular? I looked over the site
http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/


and learned that there are only about 9 500 people who actually use Ubuntu. Why is that? This forum has nearly 200 000 users - this is strange.

Also,
Ubuntu is one of the fastest growing distributions around, not to mention, its debian based and everyone knows about debian. Unbuntu, relatively speaking, is VERY new to the seen.

[scrooge_74]

I for myself did not know about the Ubuntu counter. And I don't remember where I left my Linux User # certificate :)

[drphilngood]

I bet fewer than five percent of the users of Ubuntu related distros have registered.

[adam.tropics]

I guess the down side, if that's what it is, of not requiring people to register, is that user stats are hard to maintain.

[smoker]

hi, didn't realise these existed, ubuntu and linux counters,

have just registered with each:-)

it would be good to know how many people actually used ubuntu

[56phil]

To put it mildly, that Linux counter is an unscientific poll.

[smoker]

yes, both counters are probably wildly inaccurate, more of a gimick than anything scientific, but a bit of fun, maybe:-)

[adam.tropics]

I was thinking what the best way would be of getting, whilst not accurate, at least better stats. The only way I can think of, is the combined count, from all the mirrors of an update such as ubuntu-desktop, in the case of Ubuntu, kubuntu-desktop in the case of Kubuntu etc etc, but even that idea is sort of flawed, so I don't know, any better ideas?

[Bloch]

It would be nice to see some stats on how many updates are served by all the servers worldwide. It should not be that difficult.

I think it's fair to say that the vast majority of ubuntu users are online and that most of those receive automatic updates. (I believe there are some corporate / university users who block updates)
The number of ubuntu users shouldn't be such a mystery.

[Architeuthis]

Mark Shuttleworth himself said in an interview, Ubuntu had 7-9 million users. :)
So it will be a little bit less than 5% of the Ubuntu users who have registered on that site.
And Ubuntu is probably one of the best known Linux distro's I think, it is the first distro mentioned when searching for Linux on google.
And in Flanders (Northern part of Belgium), the government spreads one ubuntu cd to every school (see my thread: http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=301047 ).
This must indicate that Ubuntu is well known (and seen as professional).

[dvarsam]

Mark Shuttleworth himself said in an interview, Ubuntu had 7-9 million users. :)
So it will be a little bit less than 5% of the Ubuntu users who have registered on that site.

If the problem is that Ubuntu users do NOT register in the Ubuntu Counter project, then maybe a small app could log-in once every 30 days to verify whether a user is still an active Ubuntu user or whether he has quit using it...


The question is NOT how many users are counted overall in the Ubuntu Counter Project...

It is how many are truly staying with their Ubuntu OS in the long run!

The 1rst # will always be increasing, but the 2nd number will have fluctuations!

That is why we might need a tiny app that checks-in every 30 days...

A tiny program like this could be very easily created...

And even though, this new app could be installed by default to Ubuntu, a user not wanting to log automatically every month, could easily un-install the package!

Thanks.

[frodon]

Why is Ubuntu so unpopular? I looked over the site
http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/


and learned that there are only about 9 500 people who actually use Ubuntu. Why is that? This forum has nearly 200 000 users - this is strange.I think your source of information isn't good, look what show distrowatch : http://distrowatch.com/stats.php?section=popularity

[Architeuthis]

If the problem is that Ubuntu users do NOT register in the Ubuntu Counter project, then maybe a small app could log-in once every 30 days to verify whether a user is still an active Ubuntu user or whether he has quit using it...

That's a good idea but I think some people will see it like that "validation tool" window$ has, if it is not an optional function, but when it is optional it isn't accurate any more.

[Circus-Killer]

as others have said, these counters are useless. i've been playing around with linux since 99 (on and off, you know how it goes), and this is the first time i've heard of them.

i will naturally register, but these counters will forever be inaccurate. :neutral:

[agl]

Hi

I may be wrong but don't all ubuntu computers with acces to the internet synchronize with the clock server at bootup. Now I am not familiar with how IP work, but would that not give pretty precise accounts of how many ubuntu user there are.

Anton.

[smoker]

hi, one of the reasons i left windows was because of all their phone home crap, if ubuntu, or any other os started up that road, then again, i would look for another alternative

[BoyOfDestiny]

http://redherring.com/article.aspx?a=20497

"We know now that there are probably at least 8 million [Ubuntu] users."

Link to page 1 of the article

http://redherring.com/article.aspx?a=20495

Anyway, not to shabby, last article I checked Mark said it was only around 2 million.

Keep it up folks.

[scrooge_74]

Is he counting just the PCs or the other users at my home too?

[prizrak]

Is he counting just the PCs or the other users at my home too?

I think he mentioned before that they go by unique IP hits on the repo servers. Not the most accurate info either since most IP's nowadays are dynamic.

[Mathiasdm]

I think he mentioned before that they go by unique IP hits on the repo servers. Not the most accurate info either since most IP's nowadays are dynamic.

They could track a certain package (a new kernel release) and see how many different IP's download it. I guess it would be pretty accurate.

[_simon_]

They could track a certain package (a new kernel release) and see how many different IP's download it. I guess it would be pretty accurate.

Unless you're sat behind a router. Both myself and my partner use Ubuntu and as we're behind a router we would appear to have the same IP.

[Mathiasdm]

Unless you're sat behind a router. Both myself and my partner use Ubuntu and as we're behind a router we would appear to have the same IP.

Okay, good point.

Next idea: they could look at a package (kernel update X) and see how many times it was downloaded in total.

Downside: if a company downloads a package for 1 computer, and sends the package through to other computers by themselves, that'll only count for 1 download.

Indeed, it's not possible to know for sure, but we can guess :mrgreen:

[plb]

If so, digg it and maybe he'll see it

http://digg.com/linux_unix/Mr_Shuttleworth_where_did_you_get_8_million_users

Good if it's true, I'm just curious where he got it from.

[aidanr]

number of unique ip's hitting the repos

doesn't account for dynamic ip's though and people with multiple boxes, servers etc,

although maybe it's a conservative estimation to take account of this, but i doubt it

by the way theres already an article on the frontpage, if you read the comments you'd get your answer, no need for a new article really

[Mathiasdm]

As I said in both posts:

The apt-get system, that updates every package on their system?

Suppose you're in charge of the Ubuntu servers, and you write a script that counts the number of times a kernel update is downloaded, and you'll have an estimate of the number of users.

Other way: count the number of unique IP's in the last few weeks that have downloaded from the servers.

[riven0]

Yeah, but you'll have a huge chance of underestimating in that case. Take my family, for example; nearly everyone uses Ubuntu on different comps but we all go through the same IP. So, realistically, the number is probably higher than 8 million.

[RAV TUX]

threads merged...


Anyone else curious where Mark got 8m users from

http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=328215

[raul_]

8 million isn't that much actually *shouts raining on me*

[Mathiasdm]

Yeah, but you'll have a huge chance of underestimating in that case. Take my family, for example; nearly everyone uses Ubuntu on different comps but we all go through the same IP. So, realistically, the number is probably higher than 8 million.

Better underestimating than overestimating ;)

I prefer saying: "We have at least 8 million users!", rather than: "We have at most 9 million users!"

[saulgoode]

The more important statistic for a Free Software endeavor is how many developers it has (along with their level of quality as well).

[jetpeach]

I'm kinda obsessed with monitoring linux growth, but had times it can be very hard - there is so little actual data available, and much of it is inaccurate or old articles from 2004 predicting what market share linux will have in 2006. And then I can't even find the data from 2006... But to the point, I am curious if Canonical/Ubuntu release data regarding how many users Ubuntu has. Specifically, how many different IPs are actively updating from the repositories? This would give a very good idea of Ubuntu growth over these last years, and I'm very curious. I shouldn't think this information needs to be kept private either, it's not really any different than a web site releasing how many hits they get a day...

It seems that perhaps lately Ubuntu growth has flattened - at least on Distrowatch.com (which admittedly is really a terrible indicator of market share/users) openSuse has almost caught up with Ubuntu in the hits per day, or at least it has sharply closed the once larger gap. But even if growth has stopped, the data would be very interesting to the community I should think, and could serve as a motivator for us to continue to motivate our friends to switch to Ubuntu...

If anyone knows if this data is available or could get it, please let us know!
Thanks,

[Brainfart]

Tracking that is extremely hard without some sort of "call home" mechanism. Without making everyone perform a certain task to check in, there is really no accurate way of measuring it. Distrowatch, as noted, is a pretty poor tool; the idea is good but if people don't use it, it won't work. Unfortunately, you can't track it by ISO downloads, discs shipped, or anything of that nature either, as a single person could use multiple copies, or multiple people could use a single copy. Probably the best bet would be a public poll, but that would take a fair amount of resources. You might check some news websites to see if they have anything.

[jetpeach]

But it doesn't that seem that hard just to tell how many people are using the repository update service based on unique IP hits - and while it won't include the people who don't upgrade (probably a minority i should hope), it should track the total Ubuntu user number pretty well...

[Brunellus]

But it doesn't that seem that hard just to tell how many people are using the repository update service based on unique IP hits - and while it won't include the people who don't upgrade (probably a minority i should hope), it should track the total Ubuntu user number pretty well...
what about browser stats?

EDIT: no, I take that back. the user-agent string doesn't show distro. DRAT.

[Mathiasdm]

Another (admittedly bad) indicator, is Google Trends. I always find it interesting to see the peaks when a new Ubuntu version is released: http://google.com/trends?q=breezy%2C+dapper%2C+edgy%2C+feisty&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

It would be interesting to see Canonical statistics on how much people download Ubuntu every day, and see a 'monthly update' of the amount of people that use the repositories (Mark mentioned 8 million people using it, about a month ago).

[megamania]

But it doesn't that seem that hard just to tell how many people are using the repository update service based on unique IP hits
If I'm correct, unique ip doesn't mean unique user. Most users don't have a static IP, so every time they connect to the internet they get a different IP address and would then be counted as multiple users - also the other way round is true, with the possibility of multiple linux users getting the same IP address and being counted as one single user.

[drfalkor]

What about a little small small small app, module or something in every ubuntu distro.. how is it done ? well, the ubuntu developers can write something small that sends a message to a server that counts a new user after a fresh install

Installing Ubuntu -> Ubuntu Installed -> Connecting to the internett - connected to the internett [Now the only-run-one-time-and-stop-forever-program/app sends a message to the counting server, something like "A new install is completed", then the app stops/kill it self forever]. One time run program, then it kills itself, clean itself up.. and never runned again :)

how about that ? :)

EDIT: Then the server takes the data forward to ubuntu.com and prints out.. lets say "2345524325 Ubuntu's installed", and counting :P ..Client -> Server / PHP scripts forwards the data to the site and print out the numbers of installed ubuntu's -> 2133214324 Ubuntu's installed :P

[TBOL3]

Only if it asked you to send the data.

[drfalkor]

No, I mean that it runs in the background without the user notice it.. or a window pops up that says.. "Would you be counted in the Statistics of ubuntu users?" Yes - no ?

But I've rather had that in the background.. it waits while you get internett, and when you have internett, it sends a message to a counting server, and then it kills itself, and never runned again - only after a freshly installed ubuntu :) "Ubuntu installed xxxxx times"

[Brunellus]

No, I mean that it runs in the background without the user notice it.. or a window pops up that says.. "Would you be counted in the Statistics of ubuntu users?" Yes - no ?

But I've rather had that in the background.. it waits while you get internett, and when you have internett, it sends a message to a counting server, and then it kills itself, and never runned again - only after a freshly installed ubuntu :) "Ubuntu installed xxxxx times"
I'm totally against any kind of phone-home mechanism. If you want this, you know where to find it--in Vista.

[Polygon]

but brunellus, you already have a "phone home" program installed on ubuntu (by default)

Popularity Contest:

Vote for your favourite packages automatically
When you install this package, it sets up a cron job that will
anonymously submit statistics about your most used packages
periodically to the developers.


And what would be the problem of having a simple program that runs when you first install ubuntu or whatever that sends what distro and maybe kernel you are using to a server?

and for firefox, the user agent string does show the distro:



Mozilla/5.0 (X11; U; Linux i686; en-US; rv:1.8.1.1) Gecko/20060601 Firefox/2.0.0.1 (Ubuntu-edgy)

[drfalkor]

I'm totally against any kind of phone-home mechanism. If you want this, you know where to find it--in Vista.

Well, I can still want this while I dont want Vista. What I mean is: it sends that message stuff trough the internett without any form of information about the user or the machine, just that it just got installed, NOTHING more :)

EDIT: it JUST sends that it got installed, but not on what ip, user, or anykind of personal information.. JUST, I mean JUST that it just got installed.. so the server can see that "ooh, it just got installed on a new machine, but I dont have any clue what machine or user.. but anyways, we have the statistics of how many machines it is installed on"

I dont see any other sulotions, do you ? if so, please share :)

[megamania]

EDIT: it JUST sends that it got installed, but not on what ip, user, or anykind of personal information.. JUST, I mean JUST that it just got installed.. so the server can see that "ooh, it just got installed on a new machine, but I dont have any clue what machine or user.. but anyways, we have the statistics of how many machines it is installed on"

I dont see any other sulotions, do you ? if so, please share :)
I clean-install Ubuntu every time a new version is released... I'd be counted as a new user every time, right?

And when I remove it from my computer?

Nice idea in theory, wouldn't work in practice.

[drfalkor]

Well.. it would only say "ubuntu installed xxxx time", not how many users there are.. it would work in practise :)

[Engnome]

The counter is a nice idea, at first.

But you bother millions of people with a dialog every time they install ubuntu. They get a different feeling, "they want to track us?" We invade their privacy ever so little.

Just for getting a number that won't really make a difference anyway.

[drfalkor]

well.. therfore this program/app should run in the background,, without any dialog so the user dont even notice it... since there arent any personal information including in this, there is not breaking in privacy ( that info being sendt is worthless as one netpackage )

[Engnome]

well.. therfore this program/app should run in the background,, without any dialog so the user dont even notice it...

I'm not sure I'm ok with that. You must be able to turn it off somewhere...

Not worth it IMO.

[drfalkor]

AFTER a fresh installation of ubuntu, the app that runs in the background send the information just one time, THEN it turn itself off.. and delete itself forever :) until a new fresh installation of ubuntu.. you see the circle ?

[drfalkor]

or it could be a part of the installation steps.. like this app runs in the background while installing ubuntu.. so the user wont notice ANYTHING :)

remember what I said, it only runs ONE time IF connected to internett.. just this message: "Hello, ubuntu got installed" / just add another number in "ubuntu installed on xxxxx machines" -- to the counter server ( forwarding it to ubuntu.com or ubuntuforums.org ) :)

[koenn]

or it could be a part of the installation steps.. like this app runs in the background while installing ubuntu.. so the user wont notice ANYTHING :)

remember what I said, it only runs ONE time IF connected to internett.. just this message: "Hello, ubuntu got installed" / just add another number in "ubuntu installed on xxxxx machines" -- to the counter server ( forwarding it to ubuntu.com or ubuntuforums.org ) :)

Some people really don't like their OS running stuff they don't know about. Especially Linux useers.

[drfalkor]

well, it only runs for 1 sec of your time and you wont even notice it, and it sends data you dont care about ( I would not care, but thats me)

[Engnome]

Even if we had this app it would make no difference. The number would only be slightly better than distrowatch.com clicks.

Example: I have installed ubuntu fresh five times on this laptop alone. And I plan on a fresh feisty install when herd 4 comes out.

Example: Several install that I have done on some computers, are just that. Nothing more. I've tried reviving some old computers but they often end up unused.

Example: Somenone install ubuntu in a virtual machine. From this point many things can screw up the counter. He stops the virtual machine and gives the image to friends, and keeps a backup himself. Now every time someone boots into that image it will be like the first time, the counter will go +. Or he can screw the counter the other way. Giving out an image he has used for some time to many people. No new installs yet new users and new copies of ubuntu. This might not be to common with home users but maybe in organisations/companies.

Example: Some idiot likes to **** ppl off. With the source of the app being open he can easily write/modify it to register many new users per second. There's no way to stop this because we are NOT going to collect any personal info like mac adresses, mobo serials or ip adresses.

[Randomskk]

Not to mention all the people who install without internet access (do you run in the background all the time polling for 'net access?) and those who install and a few days/weeks/months later decide they don't like it and go back.

That and I'm also against a phone home mechanism.

If Google store user agents with the session ID, given that most internet users probably hit up Google at least once, and Firefox users more so, you might be able to get a count for the people using a browser that does give the distro.

[Shay Stephens]

well, it only runs for 1 sec of your time and you wont even notice it, and it sends data you dont care about ( I would not care, but thats me)

It's ideas like this that ruin everything. A simple innocuous program running surreptitiously in the background for a supposed noble cause. After a while, not so altruistic people want control of that mechanism. They begin to push things and find it too easy to start spying.

No! In a most vehement resistance, this is a terrible idea. I would oppose this as much as I oppose Vista, DRM, and every other mechanism designed to take freedoms away from the individual.

It is none of your business who loads linux. None of your business how "popular" it is. Your fascination with "stats" would result in loss of freedom given time. You are not intitled to know that info. And as mentioned, it doesn't mean anything anyway.

The data gathering done by advertising agencies is getting worse every year, more invasive, and draconian. Your plan plays right into their playbook. It is a bad idea that must be stopped.

If you want to come up with an idea, try coming up with something that restores liberties slowly over time instead. I am tired of having them continually taken away.

[Mihkal]

Don't take this the wrong way drfalkor, but do you work for microsoft?

[Polygon]

i fail to see how a simple program that counts how many people run a certain distribution is stripping anyone of their rights, or is an example of DRM or any of this stuff you guys are yelling about

no one seemed to even look at my post about popularity contest. its essentially the same thing, it sets up a cron job that reads what packages you have installed and sends it to a ubuntu server. No one is crying "DRM!" or "invasion of privacy!" over that

not to mention that of course it would be open source, and to get included into the official repos (if it did) many people would look over the code and make sure that it was truly anonymous and it only gathered and sent the stuff that the project says it will


The data gathering done by advertising agencies is getting worse every year, more invasive, and draconian. Your plan plays right into their playbook. It is a bad idea that must be stopped.


who says that advertising agencies will get to look at those numbers, let alone even know they exist?


My idea for this little program would to be on a first install, IF there is an internet connection, a pop up will come up and say "will you like to send the following one time stats anonymously to a secure server? and then it will show exactly what it sends, which would be like an xml file with your distro and maybe some piece of hardware (like your cpu's serial number or something ) to prevent repeats.

people are forgetting that this is LINUX. Anything that gets accepted to the official repos or gets installed by default in ubuntu is open source, and is looked over by many many many developers and other people who just happen to browse the source code. They developers and the many people who help develop ubuntu/debian would not let anything get installed that "invades your privacy" or "strips you of your rights" or any of this stuff you guys are talking about.

other then advertising the distro that you use (which you most likely do anyway without a second thought through forums / real life) and maybe a serial number to a piece of hardware of your computer (useless information if anyone got ahold of it), there is NO other information given..

and not to mention if properly implemented you would have a choice whether or not to upload the information or not, so even people who STILL think this is an invasion of your rights and simply opt out of it.

[drfalkor]

Don't take this the wrong way drfalkor, but do you work for microsoft?

Hehe, no - But MS makes alot of cool stuff ( games ) :popcorn:

[megamania]

i fail to see how a simple program that counts how many people run a certain distribution is stripping anyone of their rights, or is an example of DRM or any of this stuff you guys are yelling about
[...]
My idea for this little program would to be on a first install, IF there is an internet connection, a pop up will come up and say "will you like to send the following one time stats anonymously to a secure server? and then it will show exactly what it sends,
What you're suggesting is very different from what drfalkor is suggesting:


well.. therfore this program/app should run in the background,, without any dialog so the user dont even notice it... since there arent any personal information including in this, there is not breaking in privacy ( that info being sendt is worthless as one netpackage )
You suggest a pop up asking permission to send data, he is suggesting a program that sends information "without any dialog".

[jetpeach]

I'm curious about the popularity-contact package that I have on my computer - is this usage data available to the public? Which developers get to see which how popular packages are? I certainly would be interested to see what apps other ubuntu users are using the most. Particularly other Kubuntu users :)

Generally, I agree that there are privacy concerns with any statistics ideas and any "phoning home" is not usually something I approve of. But as I said, a vast majority of Ubuntu users already phone home when they upgrade packages and such. And to counter the argument that people's IP addresses change, I still thing this would give a good idea - for example, how many users upgraded from Xorg 7.0 to Xorg 7.1? That would pretty much give a good idea of all the active and upgrading users of Ubuntu. This number could then be used to track growth, and also gives a reasonable idea of total users (at least better than distrowatch or google trends which was interesting as well btw).

[Polygon]

What you're suggesting is very different from what drfalkor is suggesting:


You suggest a pop up asking permission to send data, he is suggesting a program that sends information "without any dialog".

well if i were to design this program, i would make it voluntary. But even if it wasn't voluntary, a simple word like... "edgy 64" or "dapper ppc" or "breezy sparc" is all it would take.

and the results from popularity contest can be found here:

http://popcon.ubuntu.com/

i dont think thats violating anyones privacy now is it?

[lhtown]

I a working on a simple python script to make the phone-home-one-time script call home every time you reboot. That way, we can REALLY show our support for Ubuntu. Version 2 will have advanced features to avoid detection.

I will post it here and try to get a link on Digg and Slashdot when I am done. ;-)

[zubrug]

This is a slippery slope that ubuntu must avoid.
http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/business/story.html?id=f2902d5f-4dc5-49d3-b14e-5329aeb9e499

[Polygon]

you mind posting the article? i cant view it without registering

and how anonomyously sending your distro and maybe your kernel / cpu type violating anyones privacy? Everyone is posting like this is going to turn ubuntu into vista, but vista and this are two different things.

vista phones home to make sure that your cd key is legit, and if its not then it starts being stupid on you and starts disabling features

however, this program if created would send like 3 lines of information, anonymously, and be used only to see who is using what distro. (and maybe kernel or cpu type or whatever)

[Ubunted]

The only way you will ever get an accurate count of how many Ubuntu machines there are in the world is if you write a program that:

a: collects MAC IDs, motherboard serials, hard drive serials, Ubuntu version, time it has been installed, etc.
b: is turned on by default and is impossible to remove, shut off or stop
c: can connect to the Internet, bypassing any corporate intranets and firewalls
d: reports once a day/week/month, for the entire time the OS exists

And I don't see the crowds clamoring for WGA For Ubuntu anywhere.

[Shay Stephens]

however, this program if created would send like 3 lines of information, anonymously, and be used only to see who is using what distro. (and maybe kernel or cpu type or whatever)

Ya, no way anyone could ever abuse that. :confused:

"You know, these three ity bity pieces of info just are not enough these days, lets add a few more."

The whole reason for the opposition, is this lets a foot in the door. It can be abused. Look at the history of these types of things. It always gets abused. I don't think it is anyones business what I have installed on my computer, when I have it installed, or any other piece of curiosity info people are after. Err on the side of liberty and freedom. No snooping!

All these curiosity snoopers are already threatening us with RFID chips embedded into everything so they can take a quick gander whenever they get the hankering. Enough is enough.

[Polygon]

Ya, no way anyone could ever abuse that. :confused:

"You know, these three ity bity pieces of info just are not enough these days, lets add a few more."

The whole reason for the opposition, is this lets a foot in the door. It can be abused. Look at the history of these types of things. It always gets abused. I don't think it is anyones business what I have installed on my computer, when I have it installed, or any other piece of curiosity info people are after. Err on the side of liberty and freedom. No snooping!

All these curiosity snoopers are already threatening us with RFID chips embedded into everything so they can take a quick gander whenever they get the hankering. Enough is enough.

its just a suggestion (the program)

and if i were the one developing it, i would make it voluntary, show you exactly what would be submitted.

and just because something like this might be implemented, doesnt mean that it will be the doorway to throwing all of your freedoms away. In order for anything to be installed by default it has to go through the ubuntu devs, and i dont think they would allow anything that would compromise your security

but i guess something like this already exists when i think about it, the linux counter script.

[wpshooter]

I was reading elsewhere on the net that said that there are probably about 8 million Ubuntu users.

I wonder how dependable that figure might be.

Is there currently any tracking mechanism that can give a fairly accurate figure of the number of computers in the world that are running Ubuntu ?

And if so, are there any stats on the growth curve (if any) for the increase in the number of Ubuntu users over a given period of time ?

Thanks.

[stalker145]

It's purely voluntary (like the rest of Linux) and vaguely depressing in numbers, but here's the web site that I know for tracking (http://ubuntucounter.geekosophical.net/).

I'm sure Google or DistroWatch would have the graphical stats you're wondering about.

[wpshooter]

Am I missing something.

The site I was looking at was something like Digg.com. And it says 8 MILLION.

The site you have listed is showing something in just the few thousands.

Am I mis-intrepreting this ? One of these has to be out of date or wrong !!!

P. S. - If this is really only 17 thousand machines world-wide, I think I may be wasting my time on this.

Thanks.

[DC@DR]

IIRC, Mark Shuttleworth said the number of active *buntu users is around 8 millions, and he said that a few months ago. And please remember, according to Distrowatch and various sources, Ubuntu is the most popular distro so far, so you're not wasting any time on this distro. The Ubuntu counter project is just a project, and it is not an official project from Canonical Ltd. or represents the company in any way, so I guess it's not a reliable source to take reference. As I know, Mark said 8 million users since Canonical keeps track of unique IPs that keep updating from Ubuntu repositories. In short, Ubuntu is the most succesful distro so far, AFAIK :)

[ubuntu27]

Am I missing something.

The site I was looking at was something like Digg.com. And it says 8 MILLION.

The site you have listed is showing something in just the few thousands.

Am I mis-intrepreting this ? One of these has to be out of date or wrong !!!

P. S. - If this is really only 17 thousand machines world-wide, I think I may be wasting my time on this.

Thanks.

There are many people like me who dosn't like to subscribe or create a new account for everything. I am a Ubuntu users but I did not register in Ubuntu Counter.

[knight17]

^^------------ ^^
Add us those on dial up connection who can't even download stuff, I got my CD by shipit.

[Bloch]

I've always felt that there's an unnecessary amount of waffle and apologetics about the number of ubuntu / linux users.

You can argue till the cows come home about how to define an ubuntu user, what if someone dual boots and spends 25% of the time in ubuntu, what if they have no internet connection etc etc.


Is there currently any tracking mechanism that can give a fairly accurate figure of the number of computers in the world that are running Ubuntu ?

Canonical can count the number of unique IPs that update each time. This stastic yields an interesting fact: the number of computers that updated their system.

That in itself is useful information - more useful than knowing there are X million "ubuntu users", more useful than knowing how many times ubuntu was installed. And for many companies the number of online ubuntu users is of more significance than the number of ubuntu users as such.

The number of updates downloaded does not seem to be available, so we are left with Shuttleworth's estimate which is presumably based on the above-mentioned statstic.

[wpshooter]

IIRC, Mark Shuttleworth said the number of active *buntu users is around 8 millions, and he said that a few months ago. And please remember, according to Distrowatch and various sources, Ubuntu is the most popular distro so far, so you're not wasting any time on this distro. The Ubuntu counter project is just a project, and it is not an official project from Canonical Ltd. or represents the company in any way, so I guess it's not a reliable source to take reference. As I know, Mark said 8 million users since Canonical keeps track of unique IPs that keep updating from Ubuntu repositories. In short, Ubuntu is the most succesful distro so far, AFAIK :)

Would you say that includes the Novell offering ?

Thanks.

[aysiu]

For easy reference, I've merged this with a few other threads about how many Ubuntu users there are.

[Brunellus]

For easy reference, I've merged this with a few other threads about how many Ubuntu users there are.
aysiu, you are the katamari damacy of the forums.

[nss0000]

Gents:

Latest desktop numbers put *nix desktop penetration at 0.85%. Quite an improvement (not) to the value of 0.037% two years ago. The ratio looks impressive, yet anything less-than 5% usage may be considered NOISE.

I'm not the first to say it -- but it's pretty clear that until the usrland duo_abominations of *nix file structure and shel l syntax are excised there will be NO significant adaption of the OS. They are just too dam*ed ugly for usrland no matter how virtuous may be the guts underneath.

Company-supported workstation desktops are of-course another matter.

nss
******

[christhemonkey]

Where have you got these statistics from can i ask?
And how where they measured?


Personally dont really see the problem with *nix file structure... you have a /home/USERNAME/, stick to it. Thats all the user needs to know?

Shell syntax is something thats not going anywhere anytime soon either, how are you gonna make an OS do anything without some sort of underlying programming syntax?!?!

[nss0000]

Yep: your 100% right --- for a company workstation and its' guru admin. I bet *nix gets 30% of those-guys within 2 years. BUT --- for the SLUD user ... single-lusr-unsupported-desktop -- (ie) for usrland it's horribly wrong.

1) /home/me/desktop is .... nowhere !!

2) cat foo.txt | grep bull\&'wha' >> oofo.txt ... OMG !

Betcha $1.00 that *nix never gets above 2% until this stuff is buried. And I'll bet another $1.00 that "Tux-0-$oft" does it first.

nss
*******

[christhemonkey]

Ok:
1) If this is just your SLUD user, there pc will have the distro perinstalled, so they dont even need to understand, they just save files in the place most things default to (ie the home folder).

2) If this is again your SLUD user, there pc will have their distro preinstalled, so they shouldnt need to do this.


*nix is already hosting a lot of the internet.... (definately well over 2% i admit that i havent googled for any solid statistics but i know for a fact that most servers are running *BSD or *nix).

[tgalati4]

As long as it is greater than 0% and it runs on my system, then what difference does it make?

[ssam]

there are not to many times left that you need to use the command line. and each new version of ubuntu reduces them.

i am not sure how to solve the problem of people posting CLI methods to do a task when there is a perfectly good GUI method.

I think these days for a basic user, with well supported hardware there is no need to use the command line.

[%hMa@?b<C]

does that include mac os 10?

[red_Marvin]

i am not sure how to solve the problem of people posting CLI methods to do a task when there is a perfectly good GUI method.
It is not a problem at all, IMO, cli is often the method taking least time to explain; "Open terminal, paste this: cat /dev/urandom > /dev/audio" even if the instructions would involve editing and/or posting [parts of] files, it's still just a matter of copy-pasting, which can be harder to do from a gui app. I do however agree that guis make it easier for a first time user to find settings etc.

[Pobega]

2) cat foo.txt | grep bull\&'wha' >> oofo.txt ... OMG !

Why would any normal end user need to do this? Most users would just open up the txt file in gedit, ctrl+f the text, copy and paste. The only users who (heavily) use piping and redirecting are power users, gurus, and sysadmins. Otherwise things like that really aren't needed. Ever.

[saulgoode]

If you are asking someone how to do something then presumably you are expecting them to know something that you do not. When they provide the requested advise, perhaps you should recognize this fact and follow the advise -- they may just know better than you of the best approach. After all, they are not the ones seeking help.

[ssam]

It is not a problem at all, IMO, cli is often the method taking least time to explain; "Open terminal, paste this: cat /dev/urandom > /dev/audio" even if the instructions would involve editing and/or posting [parts of] files, it's still just a matter of copy-pasting, which can be harder to do from a gui app. I do however agree that guis make it easier for a first time user to find settings etc.

it may seem quicker and easier now, but if you show them were the test button is in the sound control panel, then they are far more likely to remember for next time. they are more likely to be confident enough to look are control panels to find other solutions. also if they see someone else with the same issue they can help.

in cases were the command line is quicker, this might just be showing how slow and awkward the GUI is.

(just to note, i am a heavy command line user, i use ssh between computers, i program and i use latex instead of openoffice)

[bsell]

From CNET: (http://newshttp://news.com.com/Dell+picks+Ubuntu+for+Linux+PCs/2100-7344_3-6180419.html
.com.com/Dell+picks+Ubuntu+for+Linux+PCs/2100-7344_3-6180419.html)


Of the 160.5 million operating-system licenses shipped in 2006, Windows accounted for 92 percent, compared with 4.1 percent for Mac OS X and 3.8 percent for Linux, Gillen said. "We're not seeing any breakout momentum for Linux on desktop," he said.

These are licenses shipped, mind you. Most Linux installations are after-market additions and can't be counted. Google doesn't publish the percentage of hits it gets to its site by operating system like it used to, but those figures are stil kept internally, IIRC, in 2005 Google claimed the number of hits to its site by Linux boxes was 4% - 5%.

Linux uses the same file structure as Unix, which has been around for over 40 years. Its a hierarchical tree structure -- just like in Windows. The use of a delimiter to separate subdirectories and leaves is no worse than a Windows root directory listing using the C:\ prompt. Using a slash is easier than a captal letter, a colon and a backslash.

You can use commands, pipes and filters with both Windows and Linux. It's part of the functionality of both operating systems.


cat foo.txt | grep bull\&'wha' >> oofo.txt
becomes in Windows

COPY foo.doc | FIND /C "TROJANHORSE" & "WORM" >> B:EXPLOIT

Okay, it's not syntactically correct, but you get the point ;.)

[pirothezero]

2) cat foo.txt | grep bull\&'wha' >> oofo.txt ... OMG !

Personally I equate that command to doing anything in Administrative Tools in Windows. How many normal users even open that menu up? If all the adults I know over the age of 30 who use a computer for internet/processing/company produced applications they couldn't tell you how to get there (more so because the security policy tears control panel off their work computer so at home they dont' even mess with it).

I like to think of it in this light: Linux started with the power users and the gurus and now it needs to balance out with the normal user, who has a easier path then most people think. I've seen it from people I have installed ubuntu on their main home machines, they get it if you explain it to them in a concise and clear manner. They understand that they don't have to type in devil code every day, although if you learn it like vim for example it could make your life easier.

It's all a matter of what you want out of your OS. I like be productive as **** and I took the time to learn emacs and vim to do so. That doesn't mean other people wouldn't be happy with the long routes of doing things, after all thats all they know.

[nss0000]

Bcell & others:

I am in-fact a fan of CLI and believe even middling skills can integrate it quite nicely to the GUI. A dedicated GUI_usr becomes a MUCH stronger computer user by having CLI skills. A glance at various *nix N.G. ... or any "practical" Linux users experience proves this.

So my *itch is not with CLI, but with the human_factors_abomination that goes-by-the-name of Linux shell-script. I've nothing to prove ... any-usrland-body who can script knows it sux , and would exchange exactly one (1) testicle for scripting based on well-known communication principles: concrete nouns, active verbs, limited nesting ... etcetc. Read Struck & White for details.

Similarly, *nix "abstraction from hardware" file system is rotton-to-the-core for usrland. You know the c:/programfiles drill .....

nss
*******

[tact]

Yep: your 100% right --- for a company workstation and its' guru admin. I bet *nix gets 30% of those-guys within 2 years. BUT --- for the SLUD user ... single-lusr-unsupported-desktop -- (ie) for usrland it's horribly wrong.

1) /home/me/desktop is .... nowhere !!

2) cat foo.txt | grep bull\&'wha' >> oofo.txt ... OMG !

Betcha $1.00 that *nix never gets above 2% until this stuff is buried. And I'll bet another $1.00 that "Tux-0-$oft" does it first.

nss
*******
I love it that my "desktop" is inside my home folders. I back up home folders to corporate file server automatically and all is cool. My WinXP colleagues though... one was crying this morning because her HDD crashed and she lost a lot of important files that WERE on her desktop. Her "My Documents" is automatically synchronised (backed up) on the fileserver, like my home folders, but that does not include her desktop (c:\documents and settings\...\...\username\desktop is NOT in the "My Documents" path)

commandline searching essential to linux users? I think not.

Use your handy dandy GUI program installer (with 21000+ packages to choose from) - click click to search for "beagle" and click to install. (no CLI).

Beagle adds an icon to the notification area at top of screen. (no cli). Click the icon and begin to type "bull" or anything else you want to find inside a file or filename. (is typing the words u want to find too onerous? u gotta type something sometime). Peruse your search results. OMG and so much nicer than Start>search>files & folders> "bull"

:)

[christhemonkey]

So you want command line scripting that is easier to understand?
So your beef is with bash?

Well you could use a different shell like csh or tsch if your that bothered, or write your own.
Its really not that hard to use.