Open Source in 20-30 years time?

[Flint and Tinder]

I've had a thought.
What will happen in twenty to thirty years time when there are lots of retired developers hanging around with free time on their hands?
Imagine what they could do to GNU/Linux...

What could all these guys accomplish/What would you like to see?
Any ideas?

[Kernel Sanders]

They will probably all take up fishing

[Insomniac20k]

I'm sure there are already plenty of retired programmers, probably even working on OSS.

As they die, they'll be replaced by more. Why is there going to be a surge of them in 20 years?

[bodycoach2]

Twenty to thirty years? What about right now. There a lot or retired developers right now.

I think what the world is like then will have a big impact on Open Source. The book, "Wikinomics" describes some of the effect. Collaborative workspaces have already speed up the development of open source.

I think the openness, or closedness, of societies in the global market will effect open source development. How the developing BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) nations affect the global system will have a hugh impact. LOTS of untapped potential talent there.

I hope to see a global effort to get as many people online as possible. The access to information will be "The Great Equalizer". Even more important, real time global communication will change everything, even polictics.

Also, I think in this age of security, pretty much the only way to keep any symbolance of freedom is that if my government can access it, I should be able to access it. Equal and open access to databases will keep a check on movements toward a police state, and put serious pressures on nations that already exist in a police state.

The tools that Open Source concepts have the potential to create are not limited to just software. I predict thing will change quick. I just hope the water level stays down enough before it does.


I've had a thought.
What will happen in twenty to thirty years time when there are lots of retired developers hanging around with free time on their hands?
Imagine what they could do to GNU/Linux...

What could all these guys accomplish/What would you like to see?
Any ideas?

[Flint and Tinder]

I don't really know why I thought there might be a glut of developers in twenty years.
I should rephrase my question...

Where will open source be in twenty years, assuming there are lots of talented people who come to help with it?

And if the world ends earlier, that is a different matter...

[BarfBag]

In 20-30 years, I don't think Microsoft will be making operating systems anymore. Just think about how long it took them to squeeze out Vista. And it doesn't even have anything that Linux hasn't been able to do BETTER!

[Insomniac20k]

I don't think it's really possible to predict where we'll be in 20 years, but just think how much Linux has grown in just 5 years. It's not a matter of catching up with Windows and Mac, but I think we're on par and pulling ahead.

I really think there will be some kind of revolution in the way people use there computers. Every generation's lives become more entrenched in computers and I think people will start to get smarter and take a more active approach to the software they use. I hope people will start to hold big corporations to their word as well. I really believe that the FSF and OSS will be an important part of the way IT works in the future, but I think we're some years away from being dominant.

However, it's highly possible things will just remain exactly the way it is.

As far as where technology will be, it's hard to predict that. I'd like to see the tablet pc thing explored further.

[mostwanted]

Open source will have completely overtaken proprietary software in 20 years because of its viral qualities.

At the same time there will be discussions on whether or not to abolish the concept of intellectual property, as patents (of all kinds) will hinder development in many areas - and the issue of digital content will also have to be dealt with...!

Currently, all forms of digital content are sold as material products, but this approach is not natural as digital content can be mass-produced into infinity at no cost! The industry is trying right now to artificially degrade digital content into traditional products by the use of DRM and activation, but the continued pirating of digital content will make the suits realise that you can't mask digital content to appear "not digital". Well, either that or they'll accept that the majority of digital content is obtained illegally, but that would just be stupid... better to adapt to reality.

[bodycoach2]

EXCELLENT points!

As the T-Shirt says, "You're out-of-date business model is NOT my problem!"


Open source will have completely overtaken proprietary software in 20 years because of its viral qualities.

At the same time there will be discussions on whether or not to abolish the concept of intellectual property as patents (of all kinds) will hinder development in many areas - and the issue of digital content will also have to be dealt with...!

Currently, all forms of digital content are sold as material products, but this approach is not natural as digital content can be mass-produced into infinity at no cost! The industry is trying right now to artificially degrade digital content into traditional products by the use of DRM and activation, but the continued pirating of digital content will the suits realise that you can't mask digital content to appear "not digital". Well, either that or they'll accept that the majority of digital content is obtained illegally, but that would just be stupid... better to adapt to reality.

[aPello]

The internet is indeed the future.

[euler_fan]

I would be happy with two things:

1) All the hardware out there has great open source linux drivers (I would settle for great proprietary if that makes it happen sooner rather than later)
2) A good linux distro or three really start taking a nice market share. Something at least as large as Mac has. Enough to really start getting the ball rolling

This would be a GREAT bonus:

3) At least two companies offering linux-loaded machines at competitive prices and build-to-order customization on par or better than Dell/HP/Gateway. This is mostly for people like me who love their laptops but would NEVER want to build one. ;)

[maniacmusician]

I would be happy with two things:

1) All the hardware out there has great open source linux drivers (I would settle for great proprietary if that makes it happen sooner rather than later)
2) A good linux distro or three really start taking a nice market share. Something at least as large as Mac has. Enough to really start getting the ball rolling

This would be a GREAT bonus:

3) At least two companies offering linux-loaded machines at competitive prices and build-to-order customization on par or better than Dell/HP/Gateway. This is mostly for people like me who love their laptops but would NEVER want to build one. ;)
What's wrong with system76? prices too high?

[Insomniac20k]

I would be happy with two things:

1) All the hardware out there has great open source linux drivers (I would settle for great proprietary if that makes it happen sooner rather than later)
2) A good linux distro or three really start taking a nice market share. Something at least as large as Mac has. Enough to really start getting the ball rolling

This would be a GREAT bonus:

3) At least two companies offering linux-loaded machines at competitive prices and build-to-order customization on par or better than Dell/HP/Gateway. This is mostly for people like me who love their laptops but would NEVER want to build one. ;)

Linux has a higher market share than Mac on servers.

[mostwanted]

What's wrong with system76? prices too high?

Well for one thing, they only come with US keyboards so non-English users can't type in our native languages.

[MedivhX]

Well in 30 years there will be only open source software I think, because if it continues to develop so fast as now, in 5-10 years at least 50% of software market ill be open source. Except if some s**t happens because I see that open source companies really don't agree aout anything. They still don't act as a unity, they are always arguing about something, and can't consist about anything (especially that b***hy FSF and Stallman, who are trying to make their GNU system be totaly open source by getting some s**tty research kernels with no developers)! Open Source community MUST unite, or open source won't survive!

[Lord Illidan]

I'm betting that with the peril of nuclear war over our heads not one of us will be alive in 20-30 years time. :(:-({|=

[MedivhX]

I'm betting that with the peril of nuclear war over our heads not one of us will be alive in 20-30 years time. :(:-({|=

LOL! Good point. :biggrin:

[lift_test]

I'm betting that with the peril of nuclear war over our heads not one of us will be alive in 20-30 years time. :(:-({|=

I'd think that death from starvation due to global climate change is far more likely.

[EdThaSlayer]

With internet acces everywhere around the globe(hopefully everywhere) and with some people not able to afford M$ users lots of users will come to Linux. Some of those users ight even create some interesting programs for Linux. M$ hopefully wouldn't be producing a OS anymore.

[deanlinkous]

Well in 30 years there will be only open source software I think, because if it continues to develop so fast as now, in 5-10 years at least 50% of software market ill be open source. Except if some s**t happens because I see that open source companies really don't agree aout anything. They still don't act as a unity, they are always arguing about something, and can't consist about anything (especially that b***hy FSF and Stallman, who are trying to make their GNU system be totaly open source by getting some s**tty research kernels with no developers)! Open Source community MUST unite, or open source won't survive!

FSF isn't interested in anything that is JUST open source....at least use the correct term "free software" if you are going to try and rag on it. Free software is what makes a difference, open source is only that open....as long as it wants to be open.......