Can anyone really afford going to Vista?

[djsroknrol]

I'm wondering these days about this point, and maybe someone might have an answer to this question that would make sense to me....

Alot of the computers out there really aren't ready for MS Vista. Which means
one of two things....

1) an upgrade or two.
2) A new computer (poor sap better get a disk with it!)

Do you really think that Vista will be a seller? I'm wondering...With the added expense just to take advantage of all that's new in it, will people really go the bill? I'm not interested in it in the least myself, and I don't think i'd pay to upgrade just to be able to run it.

Don't you think that the cost to run Vista just might just push people away from MS?

I think that we'll see a large influx of new Linux users come the begining
of the year...

just my .02...

[DoctorMO]

We already see a new large influx of linux users, the task is now for other software and hardware companies to join us.

[brim4brim]

We already see a new large influx of linux users, the task is now for other software and hardware companies to join us.

Exactly, the way I see it anybody that knows what Vista is and what Linux is has started to migrate.

Hardware vendors need to start providing drivers and software vendors need to release software. What I really don't get is some of them don't provide debs, just rpm's when most people are using Ubuntu.

[aysiu]

I think that we'll see a large influx of new Linux users come the begining
of the year... Depends on what you consider a "large influx."

Most Windows XP users will continue to use Windows XP until they feel their computers are "too old." At that point, they will buy a new computer... and that computer will have Windows Vista on it.

Some Windows power users who are beginning to hate Windows because of WGA or Vista's price tag/system requirements might turn to Linux, but Windows power users are not the majority of Windows users.

[djsroknrol]

The point is the cost involved...don't you think that the costs involved in upgrading this time are through the roof?...and not only does 'ol MS profit from it, but quite a few more facets of the industry as well. I wonder what kind of "deep pockets" are really going to spring for it...The average Joe (Josephine)? Somehow, I don't think in droves this time.

And with it being released late and all, who's going to outlay cash after the holidays for all that? I know I'm going to have a great Christmas with Billy's money in my pocket for a change.

[aysiu]

My point is that the supposed "average Joe" or "average Josephine" won't feel any dying need to upgrade. She or he will be perfectly fine using XP.

[Omnios]

Aysiu I totally agree with you but there are a few rumors that might change things a bit. First off one of the rumors is that whey are trying to make the full blown Vista in the Photo SHop price range. There was also a rumor that they where going to make a heavily watered down basic version of Vista to ship with new computers in stores with the ability to upgrade to different levels of functionality. If this happenes it will have a slight impact. But like you said most users will wing it wict what they get with the computer but also there will be others looking for something better. Then again most of these are rumors so this might not happen.

[croak77]

The "average Joe" will almost certainly need to uprade at some point. It's not just Vista that will make them do it. It's SATA over ATA, PCI-E over AGP, Duo Core over P IV.

[Stone123]

I think that xp will be my last windows. Only if Half Life 3 needs vista or maby Civilization 5.

[aysiu]

The "average Joe" will almost certainly need to uprade at some point. It's not just Vista that will make them do it. It's SATA over ATA, PCI-E over AGP, Duo Core over P IV.
If you consider "upgrad[ing]" to be "buying a new computer eventually," then, yes.

[zenwhen]

Most people will pirate Windows Vista, regardless of how hard Microsoft makes it. It will become possible within a month of release, easy to obtain withn two, and widespread within six.

I would love to see Windows piracy become 100% impossible so that free software could compete on a fair level in the "I won't pay for an OS." sector.

[djsroknrol]

The "average Joe" will almost certainly need to uprade at some point. It's not just Vista that will make them do it. It's SATA over ATA, PCI-E over AGP, Duo Core over P IV.

This is my point....the costs are astronomical....a much bigger jump than say ME or 98SE to Vista..you might have to spend anywhere from two to three hundred more on top of Vista to run it with all it's bells and whistles.

Do you think that a lot people will pay for that privilege? I think that a lot can't afford it and in turn, it won't give MS the sales this time around..I could be dead wrong, but that's my take on it...

And yes aysiu, they will keep using XP..they have it now..I don't think that half of the current users of XP now are the "gota have the latest and greatest" varity.

[bobbybobington]

The "average joe" doesn't even know that there is an alternative to windows (yet;-) ). Or even worse, he doesn't know the difference between his physical hardware computer and operating system. He just accepts the fact that his computer just get viruses, or spyware. He also will probably just buy a new computer instead of installing a new os, or worse just to get rid of the viruses and spyware. Thats why his more computer literate friends and/or family will just take care of it for him and install linux and save him alot of time and money. I've read a very good article (http://www.nuxified.org/how_microsoft_is_loosing_to_gnu_linux) on this subject.

But to answer the question, plenty of people will buy vista one way or another because they don't know there is a viable alternative.

[jISh]

Vista is just useless crap IMO.
The security will be bypassed, and already has been by professional hackers, dozens of time.

Not worth the upgrade, either. Seriously, XGL/Compiz can do more than Vista for less hardware power, and $0.

If I ever need to use Windows for anything ever again, it'll still be XP.

[The Noble]

I don't think any major upset will happen any time soon in the desktop community with the launch of Vista. Most desktops that cost 500 or above will be able run Vista, with an 80 dollar graphics card (this is retail price, cheaper if bought in bulk) Vista will be easily run at its full capability. Laptops may have a problem, but Microsoft Os's don't change over a 5 year period and they will catch up within the year.

The major problem with Vista is the enterprise section. They will not want that overhead. I bet many older systems in a company will be moved over to Linux (or kept at XP) for testing -- especially counting the rise in linux that is sure to come.

[zubrug]

I have not used windows for year's, It is too bad that most windows user's think of linux as hybrid vehicles were ten year's ago. This will change once the security/privacy issue's become unbarable.
You have to pay for everything seperately (OS, Security and Privacy). What on earth are they thinking?
The cost the software alone will get me a great barebones system, then I will give it a nice fresh coat of linux(ubuntu).
Unfortunately, you are correct in saying that most will simply buy a new computer. (with windows):???:

[Omnios]

Oh for those who think Vista is more secure "I wish I had the link" but someone cracked Vista security in like 20 min so its the somo Lamo

[KiwiNZ]

For me I cant afford not to upgrade to Vista.My lively hood depends on it

As I keep my hardware up to date , 6 monthly hardware upgrades it wont cost that much to upgrade.

[BuffaloX]

Many people can easily afford Vista AND new hardware.
But some can't or are not willing to use as much as may be required.

Usually historically seen, most peoble don't migrate immediately.
Companies don't untill it's been certified their key products work.
And even then only as they buy new machines.

Some will buy Vista, because they want the newest and hottest,
and because of Micosoft marketing.
Some will buy Vista because of things like this game. (Crysis)

http://media.pc.ign.com/media/694/694190/img_3577746.html

Hopefully some will see the increased hardware demands of Vista, as a good reason to switch to Linux.
And hopefully some will discover that Linux exist, because OS talks like XP vs. Vista will arise, and somebody will mention Linux also.

Microsoft will probably claim Vista to be the safest OS ever, but it is still much more vulnerable than Linux. If people recognize that Microsoft marketing is a lie, they MAY switch to Linux.

For now Microsofts biggest concern should be to avoid mistakes, as their biggest enemy is themself.
But Microsoft is more likely to make mistakes than ever, simply because of arrogance.

All in all we may see a bigger flow towards Linux the comming year.
But only slightly.
If 1% of Windows users suddenly dicides to switch from Windows to Linux, it wouldn't mean much for Windows. But it would be huge for Linux.

[skymt]

Vista is not more secure (http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/reference/ATR-VistaAttackSurface.pdf) (PDF).

[Polygon]

i know with xp i did not upgrade until a year to a year and a half after it came out. by then, it ran fine on the computer i built.

[jacksaff]

double post

[jacksaff]

Hardly anyone will buy vista. They will buy a new computer and vista will be the operating system it comes with. 99% if these people won't know what an operating system is, that there are alternative (and better) ones, or that hundreds of dollars of the price of their computer is for the OS.
Until you can go into a computer shop and see two identical computers next to each other, one with vista and the other one running linux stuffed full of cool, free software and costing $150 less, things will not change.

[KiwiNZ]

Hardly anyone will buy vista. They will buy a new computer and vista will be the operating system it comes with. 99% if these people won't know what an operating system is, that there are alternative (and better) ones, or that hundreds of dollars of the price of their computer is for the OS.
Until you can go into a computer shop and see two identical computers next to each other, one with vista and the other one running linux stuffed full of cool, free software and costing $150 less, things will not change.

I think your numbers are a tad off. When you buy a PC with Windows installed you are buying Windows.It is factored into the price.
I also think that more than 1% will know what an OS is.

As for seeing both installed on identicle PC's , I offer that , and still Windows out sells Linux units by about 85%.

[prizrak]

XP has quite a bit steaper hardware requirenments than 2K/Me there are a crapload more people using it than anything else. Vista will be the same exact way. It won't be selling much in the beginning but from the point it releases it will become much harder to order PC's with XP on it. So people will get Vista with new computers, hardware is getting faster as well.

[frup]

I wont be using vista ;)
I don't care what others use... but seriously alot of people out there really are too stupid to own computers. If you own a car you generally have to learn how to drive, otherwise you're probably gonna crash... with computers people think learning anything about them is unimportant... thats why windows gets viruses also... i never got any but i didnt feel the need to enlarge myself or find russian brides either ;)

The cost of vista means nothing, i have found that with the same stupid people that the more expensive something is the better they think it is... i've seen people tell me what a good deal a desktop with 256mb ram and a 40gb hdd is for around NZ$2500! BS

[Terracotta]

As for seeing both installed on identicle PC's , I offer that , and still Windows out sells Linux units by about 85%.

Do you offer desktops? If so I think that we are about to see a change, 15% marketshare of Linux is big enough to have at least something to say and make people more aware of it. Breaking through a monopoly is quite hard, no matter if the product s***s. (Or do people install a "free windows version after you sell them linux boxes?).

This all was assuming you were talking about desktop boxes.

[Donnut]

I hear a lot of people say they need a new computer, and if vista is supplied with them, they will use it. Most people don't really care what OS they use, as long as it works...

[beercz]

This is a linux forum, and as such most people reading this fourms are unlikely to use Vista.

However, Mirosoft, with their huge marketing budget will make Vista sell. People will buy it. MS has a track record of this going back to Windows 3.0 (remember that??).

[Reshin]

http://www.userfriendly.org/cartoons/archives/06sep/uf009503.gif

clever :p

[richbarna]

Sad to say it but Windows will still dominate the market via preinstalled PC's. I'm not sure what everybody else thinks, but the Live distros and newbie friendly distros seem to be causing a bit of a stir lately. Also just browsing around the net their seems to be a hell of a lot more Linux content than there used to be.

Has anybody got any concrete figures on how many Linux users there are in the world? It would be interesting. I also think that if newbie friendly distros keep improving, and more businesses start selling PC's with Linux preinstalled, there could be major changes ahead. But then again that gets said every year.

[prizrak]

OEM's don't want to preinstall anything other than Windows on their machines. Dapper runs fine on the same hardware that Warty did (actually better). Vista will need a machine that is actually beyond anything I own. I got 3 comps and only one comes close.
AXP 2100+ 768MB RAM GeForce 440MX (64MB)
P4 2.2 Mobile 512MB RAM Intel graphics (64MB)
P-M 1.7 512MB RAM GeForce Go 6200 (128MB)

Only the PM laptop is close to sys rqs and as you can see those are not slow machines. Vista will make the average consumer who wants eyecandy buy a much more powerful machine than w/e he/she been using for the past couple of years. That is very beneficial to the OEM's as opposed to Ubuntu requiring no more power across 4 different versions.

[djsroknrol]

OEM's don't want to preinstall anything other than Windows on their machines. Dapper runs fine on the same hardware that Warty did (actually better). Vista will need a machine that is actually beyond anything I own.

And this is what I mean...I consider myself average by buying standards, and none of mine come close to the specs as well...do I want to upgrade?...not really. Can I afford it?...not right now with the Mrs. in school..And for what tech advance is it worth upgrading?....Linux does much of what Vista is doing right now...

[az_human]

I don't see much of a difference between the upgrade to Vista from the upgrade to Win9x, XP, etc. It'll all work out the same.

Although I absolutely love Ubuntu and Linux in general with all of my black little heart, I certainly don't see Ubuntu providing any impact to the MS market. Microsoft has done a wonderful job in modeling the world to "need" them, however illusionary that "need" actually is.

Besides the obvious enterprise-level advances that Linux has made, I believe it will take some generations to come before the power of open source software is truly realized and accepted as a viable solution by the general public. It's not going to be anything that the latest version of Ubuntu has to offer (unfortunately)... rather, it will be the natural evolution of things, which takes time and persistence.

[rhomp2002]

I am a recent immigrant from Windows XP to UBUNTU. IMNSHO when Linux gets the games going as well as Windows does and a couple of the printing issues get worked out, then Linux will stand a chance. All too many people are so used to playing the games when they are not surfing or while other things are going on and Linux is not up to the Windows level in that yet. The printers and other hardware need to be spiffed up a bit also. I have been working on getting my printer to do the manual double sided printing and so far it ain't working. Windows does that very well.

Other than that I only sign onto my dual boot XP site to run the virus programs and the updates. Everything else I want I can do very well on UBUNTU. I just wish they would get the AMD64 versions of all the software out there and then it would be hasta la vista, baby to XP for me. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

[enopepsoo]

I have never had a prebuilt computer. I always make my own. I know a lot of DORKS like me do this, and probably a lot of us are tired of the choice between adding $200 to the cost of the computer or stealing Windows.

Ubuntu is better for me, before that Fedora was better for me (and Ark for a brief stint, Tetris in the install is a nice touch). For a pure dork like me, there really is no alternative to the sheer dorkiness of linux.

Sorry for the rant.:D

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[sbentzen]

well the only point in buying vista is to upgrade because microsoft is going to push people into upgrading by going "if you upgrade to vista this option will be enabled" that and there really are graphic pioneers who have a discretionary income and buy whatever they want just because they can, though does that make them better than the linux community, no, linux has had xgl longer than vista has been in public beta (i think) and in any case, microsoft is bloatware that does just that, bloats and bloats and bloats until "requires 776M" to install and you get "INSUFFICIENT SPACE ](*,) " which is just evil. and because i want to use ubuntu and i already use mac which has some pretty nice eyecandy i will say "UBUNTU DUAL BOOTED" when it comes to them, though i'd only use windows for halo 2 and other games that requires microsuck to work.though through agony i try to curb my hate for windows for another day.](*,) ahh the relief of head wall hitting.

[djsroknrol]

With all the choices:


http://www.winsupersite.com/showcase/winvista_editions.asp

and price options:

http://www.elektriq.com/articles/vista-version-prices-revealed

I still contend it's pricey at best...

[PryGuy]

Offtopic a bit, but I'll say it anyway. I have realized this morning that Microsoft is full of Linux fanboys actually!:D They really make everything these days to make people move to Ubuntu!

Linux is not what it was say 5 years ago! It used to be a perfect OS... for the computer geeks... Now it's not. I remember my first experience with the Ubuntu 5.04. I haven't used Linux seriously before that time and imagine my amazement as I installed it and realized that it's a Desktop OS!!! Yes, there's still a long way, yes, there's a lot of work to be done (Ubuntu improved greatly from that time by the way), but you can install it on an office PC and it will be suitable for almost everything you can think of in the office!

Seing that Microsoft should've acted somehow different. They really can't ask $400 for Vista when a typical user can install Ubuntu for free!!!

[tuxcantfly]

Vista is going to take over, it'll just take it a while. As soon as Dell and HP begin shipping budget computers that have vista preinstalled, there will no longer be a problem of cost or hardware. Yes, I know that windows isn't free, but to the average user, it is, because it's preinstalled, and it's cheaper these days to buy a windows computer from Dell than it is to get a specialized computer from someone like System76 that has ubuntu. Now, if we manage to convince big computer manufacturers to ship windows-free, ubuntu computers, discounted, because they won't have to pay for the windows license, and have them available on a massive scale (every computer store will have discounted Dells with ubuntu), we'll take over. But, big computer makers aren't about to start mass-producing ubuntu computers, which is the problem.

[tuxcantfly]

They really can't ask $400 for Vista when a typical user can install Ubuntu for free!!!

windows vista will be free, to the average user at least. windows xp comes preinstalled with practically all of the computers these days, so it'll be the same with vista. as for the license costs, users won't worry about that, because Dells and HPs don't come in non-windows versions, so they'll be buying windows with the computer, no matter what, so they won't notice the price, because it's part of the computer purchase price.

[Tux Aubrey]

IMHO XP (SP2) is the best Windows has ever been and, regardless of cost, the whole idea of going back to a fresh SP0 version, with inherent bugs and vulnerabilities, is not something I would do by choice. Those who complain of bugs in Linux software must have very short memories.

With three home computers, there is no way I'm about to shell out for three licences anyway. The whole licencing and copy protection thing with MS and associated providers drives me up the wall. Not to mention the time spent on virus protection, updates etc.

My next computer will be optimised for Ubuntu anyway and, now that I have discovered VMware, even XP will be relegated to a virtual machine inside one install of Ubuntu.

[bobbybobington]

my next comp will be system 76. I wont let vista anywhere near my comp!

[EdThaSlayer]

Windows Vista will not be popular because people choose to upgrade to this OS. It will only be popular because the next generation of computers will have it preinstalled, thats one reason why Windows XP is very popular.