Rambling thoughts and other mysterys

[MikePnKY]

Maybe the discussions about this OS versus that OS are being looked at the wrong way. Maybe instead of an intellectual approach, perhaps it needs to be looked at in the realm of human nature. Some time ago, I was at one of those little quicky lube places getting the oil changed in my car. This fellow in the lane next to me was told that his "all-in-one drive belt" was badly worn and should be replaced. The guy readily agreed to the maintenance, and didn't even bother to get out of the car and look at it himself. There are people in this world that are perfectly content to throw money at an issue, trusting completely in those working the problem, just so long as they don't have to deal with it them selves.

Going to a quick-mart instead of the grocery store, much more expensive, but close and handly. Paying someone $2000 to build a deck for their house when they could buy $90 worth of materials and build it themselves...etc.etc.etc.

Microsoft will ALWAYS be around, because the world is full of those people who just don't want to be bothered with command lines, hunting codecs or configuring hardware. They would rather not have to touch the computer at all, they want one that will do everything for them.

..and then, there are those of us that will build our own deck!

[Lord Illidan]

I agree.

[cstudent]

...Paying someone $2000 to build a deck for their house when they could buy $90 worth of materials and build it themselves...etc.etc.etc.


You've never priced materials for a deck have you? :)

[mips]

You've never priced materials for a deck have you? :)

Well if he did and it can be done for $90 then I'm starting a new deck building business tomorrow ;)

[23meg]

Microsoft will ALWAYS be around, because the world is full of those people who just don't want to be bothered with command lines, hunting codecs or configuring hardware.I'd say software meant "for dummies" and whoever makes it will always be around because of that.

Maybe not even "always", but as long as the world is full of that kind of people. Because not wanting to mess up with things and just asking for something that works isn't part of "human nature", whatever human nature may be, but a byproduct of today's dominant way of life, too complex to be discussed within the scope of this thread, but easily summed up by the word "capitalism".

You don't believe there will ever be a day when there will be Linux distros that are as "for dummies" as Windows, do you? That day is close.

[Lord Illidan]

I'd say software meant "for dummies" and whoever makes it will always be around because of that.

Maybe not even "always", but as long as the world is full of that kind of people. Because not wanting to mess up with things and just asking for something that works isn't part of "human nature", whatever human nature may be, but a byproduct of today's dominant way of life, too complex to be discussed within the scope of this thread, but easily summed up by the word "capitalism".

You don't believe there will ever be a day when there will be Linux distros that are as "for dummies" as Windows, do you? That day is close.

That day is close..and indeed Ubuntu is almost there. But the step of switching over is indeed a large step. And if the user is working well with XP, he/she will not like it. (unless he/she likes the challenge, like we did)

[23meg]

That day is close..and indeed Ubuntu is almost there. But the step of switching over is indeed a large step. And if the user is working well with XP, he/she will not like it. (unless he/she likes the challenge, like we did)
The thing is, Ubuntu isn't aiming to get there. Ubuntu isn't trying to be "Linux for dummies", it never has, and that's a very wise route for Ubuntu. Linspire is trying to be that, for example, and they're doing pretty well. In the near future they and similar projects will be doing much better, for the following reasons:

- The user base will grow, and more manufacturers will provide open hardware specs and drivers, resulting in better hardware compatibility.

- Open source software in general will develop in its abilities to outperform proprietary equivalents much faster. Just look at the distance we covered from 1995 (Windows 95 vs. Linux 1.3) to 2006 (Windows XP vs. Linux 2.6.x). This is not even mentioning the huge exponential growth of non-kernel open source projects aimed at the end user.

- Windows and other proprietary operating systems, as well as the idea of restrictive proprietary software and services (such as DRM based ones) in general will SUCK MUCH MORE in the near future.

[Lord Illidan]

The thing is, Ubuntu isn't aiming to get there. Ubuntu isn't trying to be "Linux for dummies", it never has, and that's a very wise route for Ubuntu. Linspire is trying to be that, for example, and they're doing pretty well. In the near future they and similar projects will be doing much better, for the following reasons:

I know Ubuntu isn't aiming to get there. Yet, it is quite newbie friendly, perhaps not idiot proof, but as it becomes more user friendly, we'll reach that stage.



The user base will grow, and more manufacturers will provide open hardware specs and drivers, resulting in better hardware compatibility.

That's a definite plus...but it is a vicious cycle...as for the user base to grow, the users must have their device drivers which will only be released for Linux if the user base will grow.


Open source software in general will develop in its abilities to outperform proprietary equivalents much faster. Just look at the distance we covered from 1995 (Windows 95 vs. Linux 1.3) to 2006 (Windows XP vs. Linux 2.6.x). This is not even mentioning the huge exponential growth of non-kernel open source projects aimed at the end user.

I agree with you 100%.


Windows and other proprietary operating systems, as well as the idea of restrictive proprietary software and services (such as DRM based ones) in general will SUCK MUCH MORE in the near future.

They will suck more. The problem is, will the end user notice any difference? If the user is convinced that he is doing the right thing, and everything works, then will he think that it sucks?

Look at Itunes.. the music is DRM laden, yet people keep on using it, they love it.
Look at WMV 9 with DRM. People use it all the time too.

When DRM is built transparently into the OS, like as Windows will become, most users will not notice it.

[23meg]

I know Ubuntu isn't aiming to get there. Yet, it is quite newbie friendly, perhaps not idiot proof, but as it becomes more user friendly, we'll reach that stage.
I hope we never reach a stage where Ubuntu is "the Windows of Linux". I hope Ubuntu never sets its goals to account for the needs of ex-Windows users. And I don't think it ever will. Let Linspire be that, and attract millions of "dummies", that's perfectly fine.


That's a definite plus...but it is a vicious cycle...as for the user base to grow, the users must have their device drivers which will only be released for Linux if the user base will grow.
It's not quite chicken and egg in my view; call me an optimist but event with the current state of things I think more and more people will migrating to free OSes every year, which will make the marketshare grow, and the manufacturers will act accordingly. This will happen due to one simple fact: Linux distros and other free OSes will just get better and better. They'll become irresistibly attractive to more and more users as they develop.



They will suck more. The problem is, will the end user notice any difference? If the user is convinced that he is doing the right thing, and everything works, then will he think that it sucks?

Look at Itunes.. the music is DRM laden, yet people keep on using it, they love it.
Look at WMV 9 with DRM. People use it all the time too.

When DRM is built transparently into the OS, like as Windows will become, most users will not notice it.This is a big problem, but as I had said elsewhere before, it's not disconnected from the other "majority" problems of the world. The people who buy DRM'd music without knowing what DRM does to their whole way of living, the people who will swallow the bait of Trusted Computing and submit all their digital existence to the TCPA companies are the same people who don't care about unjust wars that kill thousands of civilians, don't care about what their 3000cc cars that have no real use do to the environment, have no idea why they're voting for a particular political party and the consequences of doing so, so on.

A fellow forum member once said: "to put it bluntly, most people are just stupid". That's blunt indeed, but has a lot of truth in it: whenever you start a sentence with "most people", you're most likely dealing with ignorant masses whose point of view you can't influence and everyone has to suffer because of.

But the good thing in our case is that the internet makes it much easier to raise awareness about issues such as DRM, simply because people buy DRM'd music, listen to it, talk about it, share it in the same place: a PC. Example: the Sony rootkit case. Can you imagine such a fiasco making so much impact on Sony if it was only made public via newspapers and TV? Imagine how the mass media would handle (disguise) the situation. Now imagine a similar demonstration of the side effects of TC appearing a short while after Vista is out (it's not hard to imagine, and I believe it will happen), and the consequences: tens of thousands migrating to Linux.

In short, indeed, most people will not notice the nastiness, that's sad, but more people will notice than ever before, and this will make a difference. Because it's become easier to raise awareness, and there's more nastiness to be aware of.

[Lord Illidan]

I hope we never reach a stage where Ubuntu is "the Windows of Linux". I hope Ubuntu never sets its goals to account for the needs of ex-Windows users. And I don't think it ever will. Let Linspire be that, and attract millions of "dummies", that's perfectly fine.

Agreed on this point.


It's not quite chicken and egg in my view; call me an optimist but event with the current state of things I think more and more people will migrating to free OSes every year, which will make the marketshare grow, and the manufacturers will act accordingly. This will happen due to one simple fact: Linux distros and other free OSes will just get better and better. They'll become irresistibly attractive to more and more users as they develop.

You're a bloody optimist. ;)
But you are right here.


This is a big problem, but as I had said elsewhere before, it's not disconnected from the other "majority" problems of the world. The people who buy DRM'd music without knowing what DRM does to their whole way of living, the people who will swallow the bait of Trusted Computing and submit all their digital existence to the TCPA companies are the same people who don't care about unjust wars that kill thousands of civilians, don't care about what their 3000cc cars that have no real use do to the environment, have no idea why they're voting for a particular political party and the consequences of doing so, so on.

A fellow forum member once said: "to put it bluntly, most people are just stupid". That's blunt indeed, but has a lot of truth in it: whenever you start a sentence with "most people", you're most likely dealing with ignorant masses whose point of view you can't influence and everyone has to suffer because of.

But the good thing in our case is that the internet makes it much easier to raise awareness about issues such as DRM, simply because people buy DRM'd music, listen to it, talk about it, share it in the same place: a PC. Example: the Sony rootkit case. Can you imagine such a fiasco making so much impact on Sony if it was only made public via newspapers and TV? Imagine how the mass media would handle (disguise) the situation. Now imagine a similar demonstration of the side effects of TC appearing a short while after Vista is out (it's not hard to imagine, and I believe it will happen), and the consequences: tens of thousands migrating to Linux.

In short, indeed, most people will not notice the nastiness, that's sad, but more people will notice than ever before, and this will make a difference. Because it's become easier to raise awareness, and there's more nastiness to be aware of.

As long as the situation is handled well. Just shouting out from the rooftops that DRM is evil might not go down too well for some users, who already consider us as hippy geeks who have nothing better to do in life. Diplomacy is a must.

[djsroknrol]

You don't believe there will ever be a day when there will be Linux distros that are as "for dummies" as Windows, do you? That day is close.

I believe. Tell ya what else I believe..I believe that if we don't improve to the point of the "competition" and beyond them, they will see a come back of sorts from disappointed users...That's the way I see new users switching.

just my .02

[MikePnKY]

You've never priced materials for a deck have you? :)

Actually, yes I have...but my deck was only 4'x6', and I already had the stair and a bucket of woodscrews...and it was a year or five ago :rolleyes:

[Stu09]

I love a big Deck :D
http://www.youtube.com/watch?search=big%20deck&v=Nf-rsdNEmHo