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eliad-kimhy
August 7th, 2013, 05:54 PM
As I'm sure many of you have already noticed, the Ubuntu Edge Indigogo campaign has so far been a rather strange, hopeful and (to some) nerve wrecking endeavor. Chief reason among the many reasons for this seems to be strange, almost counter-productive practices and decisions made by canonical.

For example-
- Setting the "early bird" price at ~$600, and then hiking it up to ~$780- this is an act of commercial suicide. Most companies, when marketing a product set the MSRP at a considerably higher price than market value, and then market it for a lower price, what canonical did was set an unreasonably low price at the get go, which then sets in consumers' minds as the default price, and then hike it up a couple hundreds. It is hard to ignore from a marketing standpoint, and I doubt canonical simply did not think of that.

- Raising $32 million in 30 days- record setting aside, this is a highly unlikely goal. Seeing that the amount of money required for the project is set at $32 million and cannot change I would expect canonical to look for some pre-investments, prior to launching a campaign, or extend the time limit for donations to 60,90 or 120 days (what's the difference, you might ask, the project is stuck on day 10 anyway. Well, there's a big difference in perception, seriousness, and amount of time given to sell the product. $32M in 30 days "seems" like a crazy gamble, and is thus less attractive.)
Seeing as how Canonical is dead serious about this, it seems baffling why they would go with a "we either do this in 30 days, or it never happens" approach.

- Effort already invested in creating this product- how many man hours were put into the creation of this product? Designing it, contacting manufacturers, etc. The truth is we don't know. It could be a drop in the water and therefore easy to discard, or it could be more considerable.
If they fail to "kickstart" the project, will they just throw it all away? Forget this ever happened?

- Mentions of "secret backers" by Mark Shuttleworth for a product that is intended to be crowdsourced.


In light of some of these facts many people have come up with theories that diverge from the pretence of "we're trying to crowdsource the best phone in the market just to see if it sticks, and if it doesn't.. Well, you know, whatever..".

Some people believe that this is nothing but an elaborate PR campaign for Ubuntu's mobile OS, sticking to the old saying that there is no such thing as bad publicity (if you consider failing this attempt bad publicity), while others say this is an attempt to justify some sort of future collaboration with a big company, an alibi of sorts, by saying "we tried to make this product open, it failed". Both theories assert that the project was destined to fail.

I personally believe this is all a huge PR stunt meant to add drama, and an "open sourceness" to the creation of the Ubuntu Edge. I believe that the money is already there, in the form of outside investments, and that this money will come into the picture at a later point to "save" the project from collapse. I also believe the price will be lowered towards the end to somewhere closer to its original ~$600 price, in similar fashion to how companies first set a high MSRP and then lower the actual price.

I've donated my $780 to the project, as I feel it is well worth the extra $180 from the average price of a high end phone. I despise the current trends in the mobile industry- the cowardly clinging to proven, old standards, the growing of screens to allow for more thinness, the 16GB-32GB industry standards, etc. I'd be happy to break away from these.

bapoumba
August 7th, 2013, 06:06 PM
Moved to Cafe.
Please remember to keep that conversation civil, this is a fine edge..

Paqman
August 7th, 2013, 08:51 PM
while others say this is an attempt to justify some sort of future collaboration with a big company, an alibi of sorts, by saying "we tried to make this product open, it failed". Both theories assert that the project was destined to fail.


That gets my vote. I do think they'd genuinely go through with it if they got their money, but do think they set the bar deliberately high so that they don't have to. What they're looking for is to concretely demonstrate that there's a level of interest in their product, which they can then take to an established manufacturer. With a proven demand they can get the manufacturer to stump up the money.

Canonical clearly just doesn't have the money it takes to get something like this rolling, and they need to have something solid on the table to get the manufacturers to take a punt on it. So there may not be an Edge phone coming any time soon, but you could see something very like it.

Whether this was Canonical's Plan A or their Plan B is the question. It was mentioned as the Plan B by a Canonical employee on the Ubuntu Podcast recently, I'm inclined to agree that the Indiegogo campaign was so unlikely to succeed that it probably really was Plan A.

eliad-kimhy
August 7th, 2013, 10:57 PM
Yes, that's not a bad theory either. They probably do have the money, but why should they take the risk when they have this platform up and running.

With Bloomberg LP joining in today with an $80,000 donation and a PR statement it is looking more and more like a stunt.

John_McCourt
August 7th, 2013, 11:53 PM
Whoever owns Indigogo is going to make a nice bit of interest from the millions they are currently holding in their bank account.

cariboo
August 8th, 2013, 12:25 AM
The unfortunate thing is that if they reach their goal, the Ubuntu Edge is a limited edition, so once they are all gone, that's it no more will be produced.

x-shaney-x
August 8th, 2013, 02:09 AM
I remember in an early article Mark said something along the lines of no other companies were ambitious enough to take it on.
This whole thing may simply be to go back to those companies and say "look, there is a market for this, give us some money!!".

Either that or they are just trying to get people talking and drum up enough interest for when they reel out their "real" project.
I'm just not sure a spectacular failure to get Edge up and running is going to make people look seriously at anything else they do?

GGG83kf
August 8th, 2013, 03:25 AM
That's an interesting theory. But I don't think it's entirely justified.
First, very successful campaign on Indiegogo or Kickstarter offers special deals to first comers, and it's no bad strategy or in any way strange that Canonical offers discounted price at the first day. Their only mistake is that the discounted perks sold out twice as fast as they thought it would, or in another word the perk was cheaper than what's necessary to get the campaign going. But then are there previous similar campaigns they can draw experiences from? No.
$32 millions in 30 days means 1.2 mil per day on average, and I agree that's a lot. But whether allowing more time gives a better prospect of reaching the goal depends on how fast news of the campaign spreads to potential backers, and how fast companies make a decision to back it. If the market has already full awareness of the campaign, there is no point in running it longer.
Enterprise backing is not secret. There is one $80,000 perk sold on Indiegogo everyone can see. And you don't seriously think that companies should publicize the fact that they are interested in the Edge, and is asking Canonical for more information in case they decide to back it? :p

eliad-kimhy
August 8th, 2013, 06:36 AM
That's an interesting theory. But I don't think it's entirely justified.
First, very successful campaign on Indiegogo or Kickstarter offers special deals to first comers, and it's no bad strategy or in any way strange that Canonical offers discounted price at the first day. Their only mistake is that the discounted perks sold out twice as fast as they thought it would, or in another word the perk was cheaper than what's necessary to get the campaign going. But then are there previous similar campaigns they can draw experiences from? No.
$32 millions in 30 days means 1.2 mil per day on average, and I agree that's a lot. But whether allowing more time gives a better prospect of reaching the goal depends on how fast news of the campaign spreads to potential backers, and how fast companies make a decision to back it. If the market has already full awareness of the campaign, there is no point in running it longer.
Enterprise backing is not secret. There is one $80,000 perk sold on Indiegogo everyone can see. And you don't seriously think that companies should publicize the fact that they are interested in the Edge, and is asking Canonical for more information in case they decide to back it? :p

Well, an "early bird" special is usually set at a very low discount, and very few units. This encourages people to buy in early, without disappointing future buyers, because the discount is small, and not many people got it. In the Edge's case the price difference is $180, and many people will not donate because they would feel "ripped off" because $780 *seems* like a lot more in comparison to the old price.

In other words, the project would have had more donors if it would have started at $780 and continued at $780, as there would have been no other price to compare it to.

Whether or not this was a deliberate mistake or an innocent one I do not know, but a big mistake non the less.

The enterprise backing I'm thinking about would be in the millions, not in the tens of thousands.

mastablasta
August 8th, 2013, 07:51 AM
Well, an "early bird" special is usually set at a very low discount, and very few units. This encourages people to buy in early, without disappointing future buyers, because the discount is small, and not many people got it. In the Edge's case the price difference is $180, and many people will not donate because they would feel "ripped off" because $780 *seems* like a lot more in comparison to the old price.

In other words, the project would have had more donors if it would have started at $780 and continued at $780, as there would have been no other price to compare it to.


They stated they will repay the money to those that "overpayed" at first offers. but yes, they did go at it in a strange way. also because when you calculated - there is no way to get 32M at those quantities. unless someone "donates" large sum.


The unfortunate thing is that if they reach their goal, the Ubuntu Edge is a limited edition, so once they are all gone, that's it no more will be produced.

But if they succeed - then there might be a better "Ubuntu Edge 2" (well they all have these kind of very original names) as it will show that it is viable. It might also encourage others to invest in linux phone/desktopPC combo.

eliad-kimhy
August 8th, 2013, 02:23 PM
The unfortunate thing is that if they reach their goal, the Ubuntu Edge is a limited edition, so once they are all gone, that's it no more will be produced.

Actually, that's one of the main attractions of this campaign. Limited availability of this phone means you can not "wait and see", you have to get one now, or you'll never have one.

Netstatus
August 8th, 2013, 05:24 PM
This sounds like a very plausible theory, but I guess only time will tell when it comes to the 'save' that was mentioned. In about 2 weeks we'll know.
That this is a PR stunt, I'm sure of.

philinux
August 8th, 2013, 05:26 PM
http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2013/08/ubuntu-edge-lowers-price-again-now-fixed-at-695?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+d0od+%28OMG%21+Ubuntu%21%29