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View Full Version : Do you think that Linux will ever reach the mainstream desktop market?



Carrots171
July 8th, 2006, 11:15 PM
Do you think that Linux will ever have enough market share to become a mainstream desktop OS? Why?

jpkotta
July 8th, 2006, 11:54 PM
Define "a very long time".

I think Linux will take over...eventually. How long is anyone's guess. Maybe a tipping point in 5 yrs?

RavenOfOdin
July 9th, 2006, 12:01 AM
Yes. Practically all of the major hardware companies have supported Linux at one time or another . . .Dell currently ships Precision desktops with RHEL installed and ready for use. 5 years ago, you wouldn't see commercials for Linux - in any form - on TV. Very different today.

More ISP's are either supporting Linux or at least including drivers for NIC cards on their install CD's.

While Microsoft is . . .well. . .being Microsoft, and getting lawsuits thrown at them in the process, Linux has made some great improvements in the desktop computing area. It wasn't that long ago that display cards under the kernel were a hit-or-miss thing, requiring much configuration and tweaking to get more than a screen filled with blue crosshatches. It takes too long for MS to address problems because they either don't think they need to be addressed or don't care. Not so over here.

Linux will definitely take over, its just a question of when hardware suppliers will realize it.

bigken
July 9th, 2006, 12:03 AM
ye in 3-5 years the sooner the better

jason.b.c
July 9th, 2006, 12:28 AM
Define "a very long time".

I think Linux will take over...eventually. How long is anyone's guess. Maybe a tipping point in 5 yrs?

I agree with that...:D

You would think it would have to happen eventually..!! [-o< Although i don't know so much about taking over though.?!:confused:

But i'll bet that ubuntu becomes a major option ( choice ) in the near future as far as what system you get with your new computer..[-o<

I voted yes...

B0rsuk
July 9th, 2006, 12:41 AM
Linux has never been so close. Ubuntu is kind of a breakthrough when it comes to linux popularity. When you have mac users switching and/or reviewing it, you know something is happening. It didn't happen before.

Bloch
July 9th, 2006, 12:49 AM
Often questions like this give rise to a discussion purely from an American / industrialised country perspective. The dynamics there involve publicity, marketing, image, etc etc.

But consider this: a graphics card is a major part of the expense of a computer. So is the operating system.
In poorer countries a large percentage of computers are sold with no operating system and on-board basic graphics. Playing modern games is not a factor in choosing operating system.

What matters is local support, localisation, ease of installation, ease of use, software. They have a choice between bootleg windows and Linux. Their governments will (and do) support linux because they want to reduce piracy as part of their international committments, and also for political reasons clustered around notions of anti-capitalism / anti-Americanism. (The two unfortunately sometimes get confused)

This is the battlefield of linux. America will never see a large percentage running linux. It will become more common, it will be used to teach IT at school, it will have loyal fans. These fans still be discussing this question long after pre-installed windows computers have disappeared off the shelves in Russia, Brazil, China, etc

raptros-v76
July 9th, 2006, 12:54 AM
...microsoft will collapse through its own problems. the first generation of leaders knew how to sell total BS. the second generation wont. microsoft will go out quietly, and in ten years, nobody will remember them

gingermark
July 9th, 2006, 01:02 AM
I think GNU/Linux will only become a major desktop OS if and when the world gains an appreciation of open formats. I think people are going to have to get burned bad by DRM and the like before that really happens, Office software aside.

A major OS needs everything to "Just work", and on the hardware side this is bound to happen as GNU/Linux gets more popular. But on the multimedia side things will be problematic if closed formats remain the mainstream formats - and lawsuits could well abound then.

Of course, many people will tell you that GNU/Linuz isn't trying to be the dominant OS, but with the number of distributions about there has to be at least one that is trying to.

Bug #1 anyone?

mmmichael
July 9th, 2006, 01:02 AM
in 3 days one of the mainstream os's will discontinue support for their 95, 98, 98se & Me editions. see http://support.microsoft.com/gp/lifean18

How many users will stick with buggy, unpatchable systems or buy new machines that can run vista when there are high quality, dependable and free alternatives that will run on the hardware they already own?

Apocalypse
July 9th, 2006, 01:36 AM
How many users will stick with buggy, unpatchable systems or buy new machines that can run vista when there are high quality, dependable and free alternatives that will run on the hardware they already own?

You would be surprised, I fear, of how many will do that. I know people who still use win 3.1 (no, no 3.11... 3.1) and DOS...=-|

The horror...

koshari
July 9th, 2006, 01:57 AM
i dont think support for the 9x family of windows will make much difference. in reality there hasnt been any support from microsoft for these platforms for years now,

the last few patch packs have came from 3rd party sources and will likely continue to do so, it will fade out more so but that is like any platform.

IMHO the percentage of cost that the operating system represents in the total cost of s system with MS products is increasing to become somewhere like 20% on a base system up to 50% with a preinstall of there office suite.

that wasnt the case whare a dos licence used to cost 30 odd dollars and a 286 system cost over 3 grand.

and given the diffence between buying vista/ms office or using OSS can mean for the same price one could upgrade from say a 17"crt to a 19" lcd panel, could be quite a lucritive offer.

but in reality the vast majority of winboxes run unlicenced/pirated copys of windows, the act of tigtning up these hole could be the biggest factor in people moving away from windows.

lastrite
July 9th, 2006, 02:15 AM
With bloated vista rearing its ugly head very soon, I'm sure more users will be converting in time to come :)