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Penguin360
October 16th, 2012, 07:59 PM
The worldwide PC sales have been declining since more and more people are using smartphones and tablets, do you think Ubuntu has a promising future?

I myself am concerned about the future of Ubuntu.

PhilGil
October 16th, 2012, 08:29 PM
I believe that the demise of the traditional PC has been greatly exaggerated. Now that Microsoft has decided to build an OS better suited to touch devices than traditional PC's, I think Ubuntu has an opening to pick up more of the desktop/laptop OS market.


The biggest risk to Ubuntu, IMHO, is chasing after the latest shiny gadget rather than building a rock-solid OS for general purpose computers.

offgridguy
October 16th, 2012, 08:37 PM
I believe the future for ubuntu looks good, most of the complaints I read about here and elsewhere are more about the quality of open source software and the availability of
commercial software, rather than the operation of ubuntu as a viable OS.

Jakin
October 16th, 2012, 08:49 PM
I believe the future for ubuntu looks good, most of the complaints I read about here and elsewhere are more about the quality of open source software and the availability of
commercial software, rather than the operation of ubuntu as a viable OS.


Exactly, and its not really fair to say an OS isn't a good one, based on its app catalogue- something that Ubuntu has no real say in (but the opensource community tries its very best to give alternatives- and are free).
Question would be, if ports of said software were ported by commercial companies to run on Ubuntu, would they work out- surely they would.

As an OS, Ubuntu has alot going for it. Trouble is getting commercial developers to see that, its not a Ubuntu thing, its a 3rd party thing.

Penguin360
October 16th, 2012, 08:54 PM
No doubt Ubuntu is a great OS, but the truth is that it is the apps that keeps an OS viable.

ZarathustraDK
October 16th, 2012, 09:07 PM
That whole "death of the desktop"-thing is a silly thing made up by hungry tech-journalists.

Why? Because when somebody shrinks my desktop to a tenth of its size, I'll just take ten of those, shove them into a cabinet, and have a desktop 10 times more powerful than those portable gadgets.

As long as you can churn out performance by utilizing more/bigger/better parts/cpu's/ram/space, the desktop will not die.

mittwit
October 16th, 2012, 09:07 PM
As an end user of Ubuntu on desktop and server I find it very useful. More and more of my 'desktop' use is in a browser so really the operating system doesn't matter too much but for now it is helpful having the same under laying os on my desktop as my servers.

rg4w
October 16th, 2012, 09:13 PM
In spite of the alarming headlines written by journalists desperate to get our eyeballs, the desktop isn't going away anytime soon.

True, the last quarterly reports from the major PC vendors showed declines for most, even Apple. First decline in the PC industry in 11 years.
http://www.isuppli.com/Home-and-Consumer-Electronics/News/Pages/PC-Shipments-Set-to-Decline-in-2012-for-First-Time-in-11-Years.aspx

But this decline is only a drop of about 1.5% YoY, and when we look at the longevity of modern systems, along with the "waiting for Windows 8" factor, the colossally stupid move that was the "Ultrabook", and the global economic uncertainty, those declines clearly have little to do with any mythical "post-PC era".

In fact, Lenovo and Asus had an increase in sales, and even with the decline people still bought hundreds of millions of new PCs this year. And those are on top of the untold millions still in service.

Smartphones are big indeed, but they don't replace PCs. Even tablets are far more frequently purchased as an "also" than a replacement.

Better still, Canonical isn't sitting by idly.

While continuing to improve the Ubuntu desktop experience, they also have projects in the works for Ubuntu for Android and Ubuntu TV as well:

http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android
http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/tv

And last I heard, server deployments for Ubuntu were on quite an upswing as well.

All in all, I believe Ubuntu is more well positioned for growth in 2013 and 2014 than Windows, more likely on par with Apple's Mac projected growth rate.

Consider, for example:

Ubuntu To Ship on 5% of All PCs Sold Next Year
http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2012/05/ubuntu-to-ship-on-5-of-all-pcs-sold-next-year

aysiu
October 16th, 2012, 09:24 PM
If Ubuntu can get a deal going with an OEM for a slick and well-implemented preinstalled device with good software/hardware integration, attractive build, and competitive pricing, then it has a very promising future.

If, however, Ubuntu continues to try to "improve" the user interface, installer, and apps in the hopes more people will download the .iso, the future will be very much like the present.

Linuxratty
October 16th, 2012, 09:56 PM
If Ubuntu can get a deal going with an OEM for a slick and well-implemented preinstalled device

Yup..That is what it takes...Honestly, most people are not going to jump through the hoops we take for granted to get Linux on our pc's.
This is the ticket:

http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2012/10/2-new-asus-new-windows-8-laptops-available-with-ubuntu

KiwiNZ
October 16th, 2012, 10:00 PM
The key to success is the large and medium enterprise sectors and being compatible with the major business applications.

Secondly the mobile domestic market needs to catered for especially Music, movies, Social Networks, photos and again compatibility with the major Applications, e.g MS Office, Photoshop etc etc. Compatibility for both the domestic and enterprise markets I mean out of the box full compatibility not elastoplast almost compatibility.

offgridguy
October 16th, 2012, 10:02 PM
No doubt Ubuntu is a great OS, but the truth is that it is the apps that keeps an OS viable.

Great point.

While i was posting ,i see another great point brought up by KiwiNZ. Thank you.

aysiu
October 16th, 2012, 10:12 PM
Yup..That is what it takes...Honestly, most people are not going to jump through the hoops we take for granted to get Linux on our pc's.
This is the ticket:

http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2012/10/2-new-asus-new-windows-8-laptops-available-with-ubuntu
Always good to see a preinstalled option, but that's not exactly what I'm talking about. Even that option will most likely lead to only Linux enthusiasts purchasing the Ubuntu option. And when non-Linux enthusiasts purchase it, something like this (http://www.neowin.net/news/woman-fingers-dell-ubuntu-for-online-class-fail) will happen.

I applaud Asus for offering a non-Windows option, and I've tried my best over the years to reward OEMs for providing non-Windows options. But the way they're providing it there doesn't make for a promising future with Ubuntu. Lots of Linux enthusiasts even will buy the Windows option so they can say "I have a Windows license just in case and can dual-boot for Windows-only apps, and I know the hardware will be compatible with Linux."

Ubuntu needs a designed-for-Ubuntu hardware device that has distinct advantages in terms of user interface, hardware-software integration, and specs that go beyond "This is a Windows computer that we just installed Ubuntu on instead."

Linuxratty
October 16th, 2012, 10:19 PM
Ubuntu needs a designed-for-Ubuntu hardware device that has distinct advantages in terms of user interface, hardware-software integration, and specs that go beyond "This is a Windows computer that we just installed Ubuntu on instead."

Ah,now I see..Thanks for the clarification.

Penguin360
October 16th, 2012, 10:27 PM
Ubuntu needs a designed-for-Ubuntu hardware device that has distinct advantages in terms of user interface, hardware-software integration, and specs that go beyond "This is a Windows computer that we just installed Ubuntu on instead."

Like another Apple?

KiwiNZ
October 16th, 2012, 10:30 PM
Like another Apple?

The Apple model is successful and could be applied to ubuntu

neu5eeCh
October 16th, 2012, 11:56 PM
The key to success is the large and medium enterprise sectors and being compatible with the major business applications.

Unfortunate. I say unfortunately because I don't see how Ubuntu is ever going to penetrate this market until it can run the same apps being run on Windows. I don't see how that's going to happen.


Secondly the mobile domestic market needs to catered for especially Music, movies, Social Networks, photos and again compatibility with the major Applications, e.g MS Office, Photoshop etc etc. Compatibility for both the domestic and enterprise markets I mean out of the box full compatibility not elastoplast almost compatibility.

Again, I don't see how that's going to happen. I seriously doubt that Apple will ever allow iPod or iPad/Linux compatibility.

Based on these two items, I don't think Ubuntu has a "promising" future, only a future that's more of the same (until the money runs out). I don't see what's in it for Shuttleworth except ego.

Old_Grey_Wolf
October 17th, 2012, 12:04 AM
The worldwide PC sales have been declining since more and more people are using smartphones and tablets, do you think Ubuntu has a promising future?

I myself am concerned about the future of Ubuntu.

I have never thought that Ubuntu's furture was promising. Promising has an optimistic tone that I can't agree with. Ubuntu has a potential future if it can overcome the compitition in order to be a significant player in the home computer, smart phone/tablet, or corporate server computer markets.

In the home computer market it is competing with Apple and Microsoft.

In the smart phone/tablet merket it is competing with Apple, Google/Andriod, and Microsoft.

In the corporate server computer market it is competing with Red Hat Enterprise Linux, SUSE Enterprise Linux, and Microsoft.

These are strong competitors for Ubuntu to overcome.

mike acker
October 17th, 2012, 01:08 AM
dunno, but it was a new feeling for me when i visited IEv briefly tonite... and didn't care at all about the Win8 transition argument

it just doesn't matter anymore.

i do think i'm going to reformat my ubox and re-launch with a fresh start. i'm still learning

exploder
October 17th, 2012, 01:37 AM
In my opinion Ubuntu has a very promising future. Unity has generated a lot of interest from game developers. The lack of decent games has held Linux back for many consumers. This has also sparked cooperation for better graphics drivers from manufactures.

The Android/Ubuntu phone looks to have real potential and I think the product would do very well. After watching the demonstrations and the description of the planned hardware, I think such a device is very innovative and original.

I see signs of better quality control in Ubuntu too. There are still some bugs in final releases that need to go away but there are less bugs than there used to be, so things are looking better.

Unity and more creative thinking are giving Ubuntu a promising future. Also, I have been reading about more desirable applications being developed for Linux. Just today I read about an open source program being developed as an alternative to Microsoft Project. Things are looking better than ever to me.

mikodo
October 17th, 2012, 03:21 AM
I have never thought that Ubuntu's furture was promising. Promising has an optimistic tone that I can't agree with. Ubuntu has a potential future if it can overcome the compitition in order to be a significant player in the home computer, smart phone/tablet, or corporate server computer markets.

In the home computer market it is competing with Apple and Microsoft.

In the smart phone/tablet merket it is competing with Apple, Google/Andriod, and Microsoft.

In the corporate server computer market it is competing with Red Hat Enterprise Linux, SUSE Enterprise Linux, and Microsoft.

These are strong competitors for Ubuntu to overcome.
To have a promising future, doesn't mean necessarily "overcoming", any of its' competitors.

I think a promising future, is represented by a small growing share of possibly each of these. With its' strong growth in these and maybe newer markets, I believe Ubuntu is a success, with a promising future.

vasa1
October 17th, 2012, 03:31 AM
I don't know to what extent the ability to communicate well is important to success, but things could be much, much better on that score.

KiwiNZ
October 17th, 2012, 03:55 AM
I don't know to what extent the ability to communicate well is important to success, but things could be much, much better on that score.

Could you expand on this ?

vasa1
October 17th, 2012, 04:32 AM
Could you expand on this ?
Yes.

The latest example is the "contributions" episode. We're told that Canonical has always accepted contributions but one really has to search. Most other "free" software sites don't shy away from having a prominent link on the home page.

If I'm not mistaken, downloading the .iso using torrents in the preferred way. Yet, if one clicks on the largest (relevant) buttons that lead to the "pay now" page that link is to a regular download via the browser.

Ubuntu is used worldwide and, IMO, slang or jargon should be avoided and words should be used in their most commonly accepted sense. Now, we're being told to pay what you think Ubuntu is worth. If Ubuntu has been open to contributions, why start using the word "pay"?

The whole Amazon episode shows, IMO, that Canonical didn't realize what a stick they provided to be beaten with. Google's competitors and the media have hyper-sensitized people about "privacy". And then there's the "think of the children" brigade.

My feeling is that Canonical has changed gears into something that it wasn't before. While it has every right to do so and while many of us may benefit from the change, there's a bit of bewilderment felt by even regular followers of all things Canonical.

There are other examples.

KiwiNZ
October 17th, 2012, 04:47 AM
Yes.

The latest example is the "contributions" episode. We're told that Canonical has always accepted contributions but one really has to search. Most other "free" software sites don't shy away from having a prominent link on the home page.

If I'm not mistaken, downloading the .iso using torrents in the preferred way. Yet, if one clicks on the largest (relevant) buttons that lead to the "pay now" page that link is to a regular download via the browser.

Ubuntu is used worldwide and, IMO, slang or jargon should be avoided and words should be used in their most commonly accepted sense. Now, we're being told to pay what you think Ubuntu is worth. If Ubuntu has been open to contributions, why start using the word "pay"?

The whole Amazon episode shows, IMO, that Canonical didn't realize what a stick they provided to be beaten with. Google's competitors and the media have hyper-sensitized people about "privacy". And then there's the "think of the children" brigade.

My feeling is that Canonical has changed gears into something that it wasn't before. While it has every right to do so and while many of us may benefit from the change, there's a bit of bewilderment felt by even regular followers of all things Canonical.

There are other examples.

First up, no Corporation should be stagnant, it should always be changing and going forward, products and services must be evolving to meet the market needs and to generate as much revenue as possible with out which there can only be minimal development and improvement.

As for the term "pay what you think it's worth" I don't see an issue with.

Ubuntu and Canonical are certainly not 'what they were before' , that is a good thing it shows progress.

If you were to ask me if we should be paying for ubuntu, the answer is yes, and I always have been paying for it, but that is very much my opinion.

forrestcupp
October 17th, 2012, 12:22 PM
I sure hope Ubuntu sticks around. I don't want to be stuck with Win8. ;)



If you were to ask me if we should be paying for ubuntu, the answer is yes, and I always have been paying for it, but that is very much my opinion.

If they actually charged a mandatory fee for Ubuntu, it would be very bad for them. They would lose their seat as most popular in a flash, and become even more hated by the rest of the Linux community than they are now. They would end up in much worse shape than they are now, and I don't think they would make it very long.

Erik1984
October 17th, 2012, 03:29 PM
I think in a few years Ubuntu (and the whole desktop Linux) will be in the same state as today. Very usable for the people who like it (like me) but the market share will still be small (compared to Windows).

offgridguy
October 17th, 2012, 03:37 PM
The key to success is the large and medium enterprise sectors and being compatible with the major business applications.

Secondly the mobile domestic market needs to catered for especially Music, movies, Social Networks, photos and again compatibility with the major Applications, e.g MS Office, Photoshop etc etc. Compatibility for both the domestic and enterprise markets I mean out of the box full compatibility not elastoplast almost compatibility.

I certainly agree with the sentiments expressed here, I also feel a certain amount of
vindication as I have had my fingers slapped in these forums for expressing the very
same thing. Thank you KiwiNZ
By the way i have been to NZ, very beautiful country.

offgridguy
October 17th, 2012, 03:42 PM
I think in a few years Ubuntu (and the whole desktop Linux) will be in the same state as today. Very usable for the people who like it (like me) but the market share will still be small (compared to Windows).

Agreed, in fact I haven't read anything yet in this thread to disagree with, not that I'm
looking for it.):P

Mikeb85
October 17th, 2012, 09:35 PM
I sure hope Ubuntu sticks around. I don't want to be stuck with Win8. ;)



If they actually charged a mandatory fee for Ubuntu, it would be very bad for them. They would lose their seat as most popular in a flash, and become even more hated by the rest of the Linux community than they are now. They would end up in much worse shape than they are now, and I don't think they would make it very long.

Yes, it would be bad. But I don't think they'll ever do that. Charging for services has proven to work commercially for Linux.

I do think Ubuntu has a bright future, but they really need a mobile strategy that goes beyond a 'desktop interface' slapped on top of Android.

And they need to get onto a high-quality, tailor-made device. Not Dell's leftovers... In my opinion, a multi-chip ARM (say 2 quad cores) laptop with decent storage and RAM, a good screen (1080p or more) and a professional design would definitely be innovative and make a mark on the industry. They're leading the way with ARM servers (which look really cool), they should do the same with a real ARM laptop (before Apple).

Penguin360
October 18th, 2012, 04:00 PM
I think in a few years Ubuntu (and the whole desktop Linux) will be in the same state as today. Very usable for the people who like it (like me) but the market share will still be small (compared to Windows).
That is what I am afraid of.

Penguin360
October 18th, 2012, 06:26 PM
It's been eight years since the first release of Ubuntu and the Ubuntu development team has done a wonderful job in making Linux installation painless, making Linux user-friendly. However, most of their development is dependent on other third-party products. I think Ubuntu needs a development team that can build/create their own products running on Ubuntu, otherwise, every new release of Ubuntu will just be an "improved" version of the last release.

If Ubuntu keeps doing what they are doing now, my prediction is that the majority of Ubuntu users will be a group of developers who know how to tweak the system, plus a small group of gamers. Even within these two groups, many of them still have a Windows running next to Ubuntu.

offgridguy
October 18th, 2012, 07:34 PM
I am in complete agreement.

BigSilly
October 18th, 2012, 07:57 PM
It seemed promising until around a month ago.

The shopping lens though has been revealing though. To see Canonical insist so much on something that objectively makes the OS experience worse. *snip*(how to provide a good desktop experience) or Canonical is desperate for money. Whichever of the options you prefer, they don't make me hopeful at all.

I agree it's very, very clumsy in 12.10. But I've no doubt they will iron this thing straight over the coming months/years. Not so good right now, however.

offgridguy
October 18th, 2012, 09:32 PM
I agree it's very, very clumsy in 12.10. But I've no doubt they will iron this thing straight over the coming months/years. Not so good right now, however.

I wonder how many clients windows would have if it took them.....months/years.....
to iron things out.

I am curious as I have just upgraded to 12.10, have i upgraded to something worse than
i had ?? In that case it should be called a downgrade.

deadflowr
October 18th, 2012, 09:55 PM
I wonder how many clients windows would have if it took them.....months/years.....
to iron things out.

I am curious as I have just upgraded to 12.10, have i upgraded to something worse than
i had ?? In that case it should be called a downgrade.

Point one: I downloaded Windows8 developers preview Sept 2011(over one year ago), so yes Microsoft can and does take months/years to flesh, and iron out problems.

Point two: 12.10 is simply newer, and newer doesn't mean better or worse. It's just newer.

Penguin360
October 18th, 2012, 09:58 PM
Point one: I downloaded Windows8 developers preview Sept 2011(over one year ago), so yes Microsoft can and does take months/years to flesh, and iron out problems.

Point two: 12.10 is simply newer, and newer doesn't mean better or worse. It's just newer.
I have to disagree. We are talking about ironing out problems after the release of the final product.

forrestcupp
October 18th, 2012, 10:46 PM
It's been eight years since the first release of Ubuntu and the Ubuntu development team has done a wonderful job in making Linux installation painless, making Linux user-friendly. However, most of their development is dependent on other third-party products. I think Ubuntu needs a development team that can build/create their own products running on Ubuntu, otherwise, every new release of Ubuntu will just be an "improved" version of the last release.

If Ubuntu keeps doing what they are doing now, my prediction is that the majority of Ubuntu users will be a group of developers who know how to tweak the system, plus a small group of gamers. Even within these two groups, many of them still have a Windows running next to Ubuntu.That's kind of what the definition of a Linux distro is, though. They're not going to create a whole new operating system from scratch.

offgridguy
October 18th, 2012, 10:58 PM
I have to disagree. We are talking about ironing out problems after the release of the final product.

CodingBeaver, again i am in agreement with you, and thank you for this very interesting
thread. :)

deadflowr
October 19th, 2012, 12:58 AM
I have to disagree. We are talking about ironing out problems after the release of the final product.

Yes, and Microsoft is still ironing out problems in Windows XP, Vista, and 7.
I don't mean to knock Windows, but the truth is no operating system is ever released problem free. Whether the company behind claims it or not.

leclerc65
October 19th, 2012, 02:26 AM
Yes, and Microsoft is still ironing out problems in Windows XP, Vista, and 7.
I don't mean to knock Windows, but the truth is no operating system is ever released problem free. Whether the company behind claims it or not.
Release an OS every 6 months will be perpetually chasing bugs.:(

vexorian
October 19th, 2012, 12:11 PM
I agree it's very, very clumsy in 12.10. But I've no doubt they will iron this thing straight over the coming months/years. Not so good right now, however.
It is one thing to have bugs and make the experience clumpsy, but to add adware intentionally is a really bad sign.

And to answer the mod edit that I could only find by looking at your quote of my post. I don't know how to make a good desktop experience. I do know that adding AdWare makes a bad one.