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jim.arbuckle
July 28th, 2012, 03:06 PM
Does anyone else see our beloved Ubuntu OS taking a big bite out of Microsoft's *** over the projected failure of Windows 8?

Josh1
July 28th, 2012, 03:17 PM
Does anyone else see our beloved Ubuntu OS taking a big bite out of Microsoft's *** over the projected failure of Windows 8?

Those who hate W8 will just stay on W7, the others on XP will just upgrade to W7.

I see don't really see W8 succeeding on non-tablet devices - and I don't see Ubuntu bringing over anyone who wouldn't change for any other reason.

W7 is a decent OS for 99% of people who use Windows.

sffvba[e0rt
July 28th, 2012, 03:27 PM
Thread moved to Recurring Discussions.

Not a Testimonial.


404

madjr
July 28th, 2012, 03:35 PM
Does anyone else see our beloved Ubuntu OS taking a big bite out of Microsoft's *** over the projected failure of Windows 8?

I believe people are still getting familiar with the idea of something different than windows. But Ubuntu is expected To Ship on 5% of All PCs Sold Next Year:

http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2012/05/ubuntu-to-ship-on-5-of-all-pcs-sold-next-year

and of course many big companies already hate win8.
http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTE0NjQ

Tamlynmac
July 29th, 2012, 05:22 AM
Josh1
hose who hate W8 will just stay on W7, the others on XP will just upgrade to W7.
W7 is a decent OS for 99% of people who use Windows.

I think your on point.

If I recall correctly, isn't that exactly what happened with Vista? Remember all the hype about how many Windows users would migrate to Linux when Vista came out?

Just my $0.02

robtygart
July 29th, 2012, 05:56 AM
I think your on point.

If I recall correctly, isn't that exactly what happened with Vista? Remember all the hype about how many Windows users would migrate to Linux when Vista came out?

Just my $0.02

I am sure it was the same for Windows ME.

I agree, people will just stick with Win 7.

madjr
July 29th, 2012, 05:59 AM
I think your on point.

If I recall correctly, isn't that exactly what happened with Vista? Remember all the hype about how many Windows users would migrate to Linux when Vista came out?

Just my $0.02

Well at least I know I migrated :D

maybe we might see a bigger migration this time.

Anyway the important thing here is not how much mindshare windows loses, but how much we win. :)

even something as little as one extra percent can have a huge impact in linux.

QIII
July 29th, 2012, 06:53 AM
Microsoft has an "every other version" success rate. The bad ones have not driven Windows users away. It has only made people wait for the next good one.

For most people, Widows = PC and PC = Windows.

Linux is not going to magically topple Windows. Linux will not gain significant market share because Windows is what people know and it works for them -- and there is nothing wrong with that.

KBD47
July 29th, 2012, 07:05 AM
I think the difference this time is that Win8 may turn some OEM's to Linux :-)

QIII
July 29th, 2012, 07:08 AM
How so?

Vista didn't. ME didn't.

OEMs will install the OS most likely help them to sell their products. People have to want what is offered for OEMs to be able to sell it.

OEMs are pragmatic. They are not idealists, generally. Those who are committed to Linux are already selling products with Linux pre-installed.

Linux may gain share by evolution. It won't happen by revolution.

KBD47
July 29th, 2012, 07:12 AM
How so?

Vista didn't. ME didn't.

OEMs will install the OS most likely help them to sell their products. People have to want what is offered for OEMs to be able to sell it.

This time MS is trying to get into the hardware business with the Surface Tablet, this will certainly make OEM's think hard about their relationship to MS. If OEM's get serious about Linux, that would definitely help.

QIII
July 29th, 2012, 07:13 AM
See edits.

Consumers drive what OEMs do. Consumers are influenced by advertising. Microsoft has the advertising war chest.

Kelvari
July 29th, 2012, 08:06 AM
Consumers may drive what OEMs do, but OEMs are also strongly driven by what incentives (and disincentives) software providers (e.g. Microsoft) offer.

It's no secret that Microsoft has offered Windows to OEMs at steeply-reduced prices compared to retail, and the OEM contract, from what I can find online, actually imposes penalties against the OEM for selling less than a certain percentage of non-Microsoft-powered computers. Even dual-booting is, going off of the source I found, disallowed by the Microsoft OEM contract.

Disclaimer: My source [kuro5hin.org (http://www.kuro5hin.org/story/2001/10/23/13219/110)] is somewhat dated, though does cross-reference its own sources as well.

madjr
July 29th, 2012, 12:21 PM
How so?

Vista didn't. ME didn't.

OEMs will install the OS most likely help them to sell their products. People have to want what is offered for OEMs to be able to sell it.

OEMs are pragmatic. They are not idealists, generally. Those who are committed to Linux are already selling products with Linux pre-installed.

Linux may gain share by evolution. It won't happen by revolution.

oh but times are evolving...

Windows 8 will be catastrophe for PC space. (http://allthingsd.com/20120725/valves-gabe-newell-on-the-future-of-games-wearable-computers-windows-8-and-more/)

This type of drastic change is what drives people/partners away. Similarly to what is happening to gnome (http://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=MTE0ODI).

Microsoft is not the same... is in times of uncertainty.

And your comparison is a bit off as Linux is not the same either, is not as lone as in 1999(me) or 2007(vista) and is getting new allies quickly. And with the right number of allies you can start fighting a more fair battle.

Am not saying we're there yet, but eventually we will and w8 is just another good opportunity to gain more of these strong allies to help go around the chicken/egg problem.

Paqman
July 29th, 2012, 01:09 PM
Does anyone else see our beloved Ubuntu OS taking a big bite out of Microsoft's *** over the projected failure of Windows 8?

Nope.

While the only way people can get Linux is to download and install it themselves and while Linux has no marketing behind it you won't see a large move. Win 8 may well be unpopular, but OEMs will still ship it, so when people buy a PC that's what they'll get.

See also: Windows Vista. It was hugely unpopular, but there was no noticeable shift to Linux.

I can't really see Win 8 being so bad that OEMs don't even ship it. Windows is the dominant software ecosystem, not shipping it would be economic suicide.

Erik1984
July 29th, 2012, 01:21 PM
I hope so, but I think not. It is not certain Windows 8 will be a debacle.

madjr
July 29th, 2012, 01:22 PM
Nope.

While the only way people can get Linux is to download and install it themselves and while Linux has no marketing behind it you won't see a large move.

Actually there are more ways than just downloading it yourself:

http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/category/hardware-2/


and while I agree there won't be a huge flock of consumers shifting, it still great times (probably better than ever) to build stronger alliances with partners.

Once we have those partners we can become more competitive (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFKxlYNfT_o).

robtygart
July 29th, 2012, 05:42 PM
I don't see Linux making much ground because it has such a small main stream media advertisement base. Most people who I talk to does not even know what Linux is, even when I show them they are afraid of it.

From what I have read some people have this idea that Linux is an advanced user operating system, I have even read comments saying "Don't use it, its a hacker operating system". ](*,)

Now if Microsoft starts only putting out Win8 computers then I could see a spike in Linux users, "That is if they even know about it."

KBD47
July 29th, 2012, 06:01 PM
Does anyone else think the situation is different than ever because now MS is actually competing with the OEM's in their own space with the Surface?
If Win8 fails as bad as it looks like it will, and if OEM's decide they don't want to have MS as a hardware competitor, they may give Linux a shot. There are some "ifs" there, but it will be interesting to see.

madjr
July 29th, 2012, 07:49 PM
Does anyone else think the situation is different than ever because now MS is actually competing with the OEM's in their own space with the Surface?
If Win8 fails as bad as it looks like it will, and if OEM's decide they don't want to have MS as a hardware competitor, they may give Linux a shot. There are some "ifs" there, but it will be interesting to see.

I believe so.

Like I said before, I don't see this as an opportunity to capture that many users (marketshare), but a rare opportunity to get more mindshare and allies/partners.

kurt18947
July 29th, 2012, 09:04 PM
I am sure it was the same for Windows ME.

I agree, people will just stick with Win 7.

It seems like that. Win7=WinXP's successor. Win8=Win Vista's successor. Gussied up Win 95 became Win98. Gussied up Win2K became XP. Gussied up Vista became Win 7. Is that about accurate?

lykwydchykyn
July 29th, 2012, 09:38 PM
There's no question that it presents an opportunity. The question is whether Ubuntu or any other Linux distro will be in a position to leverage that opportunity.

Not only has Ubuntu come a long way since 2007, but consumers have too. They're getting used to the idea of installing software from a network repository. They live more in the browser, and the browser doesn't have to be IE. They've opened up to the idea that something other than Windows and MS Office can be used to get their work done.

There's no predicting the future, but for certain it is never exactly like the past. The whole "every other version of Windows flops" theory seems to suggest that an OS marketplace failure is just a routine part of the MS business model; but it's not entirely accurate, and fails to take a lot of historical context into account.

Tamlynmac
July 29th, 2012, 10:01 PM
Paqman
I can't really see Win 8 being so bad that OEMs don't even ship it. Windows is the dominant software ecosystem, not shipping it would be economic suicide.

Agreed. One must question the observation of those who believe Windows users will see Windows 8 as being "bad". Especially, considering what the every day user expects from their OS. Ubuntu just went through that with Unity.

Each and every time a a new release of Windows comes out some Linux users anticipate it's failure and how it will benefit Linux. I've learned to be patient and not have any expectations. I also believe that few Windows users will even consider Linux as an alternative. Regardless, of the quality of any single Windows release.

One can learn from the many posts/threads in this section pointing out the benefits of Unity to users who found it unacceptable. A few that found it unacceptable suggested they were returning to Windows. But, others decided to use an alternative Linux distro. Or, continue using an earlier Ubuntu release. Buying themselves time to investigate alternatives or wait to see how Unity matures.

How sad, that some think the few users that might migrate will some how affect the over all market share. IMHO the only way Linux will see a significant increase in market share, is if MS goes under. Which I seriously doubt will happen anytime soon. ;)

Just my $0.02

KiwiNZ
July 29th, 2012, 10:12 PM
Windows 8 will have very little tangible impact on Linux. Current Linux users are unlikely to migrate to Win8, Windows users that do not wish to upgrade to Win8 will stick with their current version. This time in 2013 and 2014 Linux will still be +/- 1 % and Windows will diluted over XP, Vista, Win 7 & 8, OSX will be more or less static.

Tamlynmac
July 29th, 2012, 11:23 PM
KiwiNZ

Excellent observation and response.

The issue with Windows, IMHO is that it's become embedded in our culture/society. Used by governments, companies, and the majority of all PC users. I even suspect, that the US government would see MS as another of the companies that are "to big to fail". ;)

KiwiNZ
July 29th, 2012, 11:37 PM
Excellent observation and response.

The issue with Windows, IMHO is that it's become embedded in our culture/society. Used by governments, companies, and the majority of all PC users. I even suspect, that the US government would see MS as another of the companies that are "to big to fail". ;)

No Corporation is too big to fail, reference IBM in the early 90's. However MSFT have the financial reserves and assets to mitigate risks and to redirect the company, and I agree, the US Government would most likely view MSFT as vital to the US economy and support the corporation in the unlikely event it get into difficulties.

Kelvari
July 30th, 2012, 12:17 AM
No Corporation is too big to fail, reference IBM in the early 90's. However MSFT have the financial reserves and assets to mitigate risks and to redirect the company, and I agree, the US Government would most likely view MSFT as vital to the US economy and support the corporation in the unlikely event it get into difficulties.

And this is the problem with America. It claims it has a 'free market', but if one of the big companies gets into trouble, the government steps in to bail them out instead of letting the natural course of events follow through. Just take a look at the auto industry bailout. How many CEOs and execs wound up with major bonuses after the bailout cash came in?

thatguruguy
July 30th, 2012, 12:19 AM
And this is the problem with America. It claims it has a 'free market', but if one of the big companies gets into trouble, the government steps in to bail them out instead of letting the natural course of events follow through. Just take a look at the auto industry bailout. How many CEOs and execs wound up with major bonuses after the bailout cash came in?

It would be neat if we could keep this from devolving into a political debate.

Kelvari
July 30th, 2012, 12:20 AM
Agreed.

I doubt that the failure of Windows 8 alone will be enough to bring the masses to Ubuntu (or even just away from Microsoft itself). If Microsoft were to have two bad releases in a row, however, we might see a shift in the balance.

vexorian
July 30th, 2012, 12:22 AM
I love Ubuntu and I hate Microsoft's guts.

But NAAHH. If anyone would gain ground thanks to a win8 debacle it would be the Apple devices or Android.

But I doubt win8 will be THAT bad. If MS' marketshare survived Windows ME and Vista, they can just wait till win9 and do something better.

KiwiNZ
July 30th, 2012, 12:31 AM
I love Ubuntu and I hate Microsoft's guts.

But NAAHH. If anyone would gain ground thanks to a win8 debacle it would be the Apple devices or Android.

But I doubt win8 will be THAT bad. If MS' marketshare survived Windows ME and Vista, they can just wait till win9 and do something better.

Win8 is unlikely to cause an increase in Apple or Android uptake.

buckeyered80
July 30th, 2012, 12:54 AM
Well one thing that has not been mentioned here is that we are seeing a big push to mobile and cloud devices. So, in the future, MS will not be as necessary as it is today. Linux is already making it big in the cloud operating system infrastructures. That's where Linux is already gaining ground over Microsoft. In the future, I hope to see all kinds of OS's being used and the web will host most of what we use. Microsoft will not be as big a player when this shift takes place. Windows 8 will not pull off the tablet market, as Android and iOS are much better in that area. Linux will continue to thrive in server and cloud infrastructures.

3rdalbum
July 30th, 2012, 05:23 AM
Although it wasn't as big an uptake in share that we'd all like, there were quite a few people who converted from Vista to Ubuntu. Okay; this was also in part due to the proliferation of Compiz videos on Youtube at the time.

If Microsoft pushes this "Metro" thing hard and redesigns all its software to use the Metro look and feel, then the shift to Linux will be bigger than it was during Vista. I'm not going to broadcast silly numbers like "10% of the PC market", but I think we could see an increase in Linux desktop use by 50% of what it currently is. With help from community advocacy and Canonical, of course.

Note that I disregard the "Linux has 1% of the desktop" numbers as being about three times too low - so I'm saying that we'll get to nearly 5% market share within a few years if Microsoft keeps pushing Metro and their customers continue to hate it.

Paqman
July 30th, 2012, 12:28 PM
Actually there are more ways than just downloading it yourself:

http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/category/hardware-2/


Well, there's always been someone somewhere offering Linux preinstalled, but the only ones that ever shipped any real volume were the first gen netbooks, and they unfortunately went with Xandros, which gave a less than stellar impression. That probably did Linux more harm than good.


I also believe that few Windows users will even consider Linux as an alternative. Regardless, of the quality of any single Windows release.


Agreed. The most likely options for most people wanting to avoid Win 8 will be either exercising their option to downgrade to Win 7 or simply delaying their hardware upgrade for a year or two.

vasa1
July 30th, 2012, 02:14 PM
According to "Big biz 'struggling' to dump Windows XP (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2012/07/30/browsium_win_7_up_hill_task/)", the question is still whether to move from XP to Win 7.

vexorian
July 30th, 2012, 04:35 PM
^ And the answer is NO CHOICE when you buy a new computer whose drivers. Just happened to my brother recently, he got a new laptop, but the drivers won't even work in XP, so got to stick to win7.

Because Windows in general has terrible hardware support out of the box and needs the third party drivers. If the third party drivers don't exist for your win version anymore, then you are not going to use old windows. Unless you like 600x800 resolution and no sound or wi-fi, of course.

As new software needs new hardware and new hardware cannot work fine in windows XP. Microsoft will bag themselves a victory with win7 slowly. Eventually the choice will be between 1) win7 or greater, 2) Linux or 3) dumping the PC altogether. I am afraid most users and businesses will not even consider 2).



That probably did Linux more harm than good.
I doubt it.

Most users that got the first netbooks either:
- Were already GNU/Linux users, intending to wipe the Xandros partition and install something else (e.g.: Me with Ubuntu eee (or was it eeebuntu? I can't remember which of them I used).
- Were clueless users. ASUS never made it a point to mention the word Linux in them, so they probably just thought their crappy computer was something useless. Either got some service to install windows XP, or returned the netbook. But most likely they didn't know it was Linux in them. Just like a lot of Android users have no idea they are running Linux.

buckeyered80
July 31st, 2012, 02:03 PM
And if users switch to Ubuntu, it needs to be polished. Unity is the default and I don't mind it. I think it has potential. But they need to work on the dock a little more. For example, on Mac OS X, the dock scrolls smoothly and it's easy to find your icons. On Unity's dock, it scrolls really slow on my system. Not sure if this happens to anyone else. So I have been using Gnome-Shell until they fix the dock and make it more usable. Anyway, if users are going to switch, it needs to be made easy for them. Traditional Linux users are power-users, they like to fix these type of things on their own.

Jakin
July 31st, 2012, 02:24 PM
I've been reading alot of your posts; I agree with many of you.

Users who dislike w8 will just stick with win7 for as long possible, what happens if win9 isn't any better- is gonna be the time ppl look for alternatives. Win7 i believe is quite good, microsoft seems to have made a windows i actually liked, though far from perfect... but i still with linux, im not really a pc gamer... i have a game-console for that.

Here where i live, a company called Wasserstrom, had been stressed to upgrade all systems and networks to run on win8, apparently they dislike it (as told to me by my uncle- who happens to have abit of influence) when something goes wrong, they need to call up tech to fix it from their end; and it happens often- with everything halted til then. (talk about non efficient)Anyway, i had been teaching my uncle to use Ubuntu, and he really loves it, i suggested to him he tell those ppl over at Wasserstrom to check into "alternatives" when i heard the story; Perhaps they just might, anyway doesn't hurt to mention :)

Mikeb85
August 1st, 2012, 05:16 AM
I think Ubuntu will keep gaining ground, more on it's own merits though. As apps become more platform independant (due to the adoption of iOS, Android, ChromeOS, and enterprise Linux), and web apps proliferate, there will be less obstacles to using 'alternative' OSes.

Kelvari
August 3rd, 2012, 12:38 PM
I'm sure one thing that will help the adoption of Ubuntu is if Valve proceeds with its plan to port Steam to Ubuntu. It's already showing a preliminary increase in performance of 20%, according to some sources.

[Source (http://www.techspot.com/news/49630-valve-l4d2-runs-20-faster-on-ubuntu-than-windows-7.html)]

Sandertje
August 3rd, 2012, 01:07 PM
Win8 is unlikely to cause an increase in Apple or Android uptake.

Any arguments for that?

MS is primarily targeting win8 at the tablet market. If it fails in that market, you can safely assume this will drive people to iOS or Android.

vexorian
August 3rd, 2012, 06:48 PM
Win8 cannot cause an increase in Apple or Android uptake. Because that increase is already the trend. Win8 is MS' hope to stop the trend. Failure for Win8 would mean that MS has not reversed the trend.


I'm sure one thing that will help the adoption of Ubuntu is if Valve proceeds with its plan to port Steam to Ubuntu. It's already showing a preliminary increase in performance of 20%, according to some sources.

[Source (http://www.techspot.com/news/49630-valve-l4d2-runs-20-faster-on-ubuntu-than-windows-7.html)]


It should probably cause better adoption, but I would keep my expectations low. I think that most of the users to enjoy valve's move are already Ubuntu or Linux/GNU users. I just don't have high expectations that the number of new users we would gain for this is going to be an important one.

3rdalbum
August 4th, 2012, 11:31 AM
^ And the answer is NO CHOICE when you buy a new computer whose drivers. Just happened to my brother recently, he got a new laptop, but the drivers won't even work in XP, so got to stick to win7.

Once he's been using Windows 7 for a while, he'll find he has to work with a Windows XP machine for a couple of hours and then thank the hardware manufacturer for forcing him to use Windows 7.

I have to use Windows XP at work and I hate it. I never liked XP, even when it was current, but it's so OLD and SLOW and LACKING IN NICITIES compared to Seven or Unity.

vexorian
August 4th, 2012, 02:12 PM
Once he's been using Windows 7 for a while, he'll find he has to work with a Windows XP machine for a couple of hours and then thank the hardware manufacturer for forcing him to use Windows 7.
did not happen. We keep using XP in our desktop. Windows XP seems to be faster than windows 7, it helps that we know how to get rid of malware. My desktop with XP runs as fast or faster than the win7 laptop, yet my desktop has a core 2 duo and the laptop a core i5... Then compare 12.04 with classic gnome and the desktop flies.

The good thing with Windows 7 is that it is easy to instantly disable all desktop effects. Then it becomes barely usable once you disable all desktop effects. Unity on the other hand does not allow you to use it without effects. The best thing you could do is switch to Unity 2D. But it is getting deprecated and still forces animations on you.

Window transparency is a cheap way to claim to have better aesthetics whilst the result is always blurry text and worse resource usage. I have the feeling that in a couple of years the newer trends on aesthetics will make us look back at the aero and aero bootlegs with skepticism that we ever bought it to be a good thing.

Kelvari
August 5th, 2012, 02:54 PM
It should probably cause better adoption, but I would keep my expectations low. I think that most of the users to enjoy valve's move are already Ubuntu or Linux/GNU users. I just don't have high expectations that the number of new users we would gain for this is going to be an important one.

We must keep in mind that gamers focus primarily on performance, which is why the serious ones will spend literally thousands of dollars on hardware - just for that extra .1 FPS. Finding a free software solution that offers a 20% increase could still be just the bump that is needed to turn some heads.

vexorian
August 5th, 2012, 03:19 PM
We must keep in mind that gamers focus primarily on performance, which is why the serious ones will spend literally thousands of dollars on hardware - just for that extra .1 FPS. Finding a free software solution that offers a 20% increase could still be just the bump that is needed to turn some heads.
Those hardcore Gamers also love their ultra modern video cards. Ubuntu is great for performance, but no matter how well Valve works at this, I really hope nvidia and ATI give them good drivers.

Kelvari
August 5th, 2012, 10:10 PM
Valve has actually been working with graphics card vendors to resolve the deficiencies in their drivers. We should end up seeing the improvements hit the consumer-level within the next few releases.