Future of Ubuntu/Canonical without Shuttleworth

[neu5eeCh]

My impression, and I could be wrong about all of this, is that Canonical, at least at the outset, was a one-man-millionaire show. Canonical was Shuttleworth and Shuttleworth was Canonical. Without Shuttleworth, Ubuntu would be just another micro-distro like... I don't know... name a micro-brewery.

So I begin wondering, where does the Canonical/Shuttleworth relationship stand these days? If Shuttleworth were to go up in flames on one of his richest-1%-orbit-the-earth play-vacations, does Canonical fade into a slow and irrelevant obscurity? The company, as far as I know, has yet to make a profit? The only thing that seems to be keeping it afloat is Shuttleworth's back pocket and, probably, some still "red ink" service contracts. He seems to be the one giving the company motivation and direction.

Is Canonical a real company, if you know what I mean? Or is it a millionaire’s hobby that will fall like a stack of building blocks when he burns up in re-entry?

[MG&TL]

I dunno. Ask the man himself. :)

[neu5eeCh]

I dunno. Ask the man himself. :)

Yeah. Exactly. That's not the perception a company wants. :neutral:

[JDShu]

Interesting question. Ubuntu is nothing without Canonical, but can Canonical stand without Shuttleworth?

It's pretty clear that Canonical is not profitable at the moment, and is not likely to be profitable in the near future, so I think that for now Shuttleworth's infusion of money is critical to Canonical's existence and by extension, Ubuntu. On the other hand, he seems to make a good amount of venture capital money, so his money will probably keep coming in :P

[forrestcupp]

I'd say it wouldn't disappear. You would just see a move from paid development to completely volunteer work, like a lot of other smaller distros. Ubuntu would be less innovative and probably lean heavier on Debian. You wouldn't see as many things like Unity. But Ubuntu would still survive.

Even though a lot of work is done by paid developers, there is still a large community of people who want to help. Maybe without Shuttleworth, more people would actually be allowed to contribute in ways that they are shut down from now.

But I think Ubuntu would definitely end up being less relevant.

[neu5eeCh]

Comments like these are what make me think Unity is the right thing.

Ubuntu can't afford to be just another Distro. If Unity helps Canonical reach a far wider audience and if the five year support plan helps it compete with Red Hat (which will <str>now</str> eventually be stuck with Gnome3 ) I'm all for it. I'd like to think that Canonical could survive without Shuttleworth (though the community has much to thank him for).

[KiwiNZ]

There is a fund made of several million dollars donated by Mark called the ubuntu foundation. This designed to keep ubuntu going should Canonical fail.

Canonical and ubuntu were founded solely on funding given by Mark, whilst Mark is no longer CEO of Canonical he is still the owner of the company. He step aside from the CEO role at Canonical to concentrate on ubuntu development and stewardship.

[cariboo]

There is still the Ubuntu Foundation, that started with $10,000,000. There was a question on one of the mailing lists about using some of it for a new project, and Mark said no, just leave it as it is.

[OrangeCrate]

There is a fund made of several million dollars donated by Mark called the ubuntu foundation. This designed to keep ubuntu going should Canonical fail.

Canonical and ubuntu were founded solely on funding given by Mark, whilst Mark is no longer CEO of Canonical he is still the owner of the company. He step aside from the CEO role at Canonical to concentrate on ubuntu development and stewardship.

There was a long article about this some where/some time back. I was looking for it to post here while KiwiNZ was posting, but, couldn't find it. There is one, but since KiwiNZ and Cariboo907 have weighed in on the matter, I won't look for it any longer.

[keithpeter]

Hello All

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canonical_Ltd

Guardian interview 2008: 3 to 5 years profitability

New York Times interview 2009: $30 million is break-even and Canonical was 'creeping' towards that

Where are we now? Anyone any ideas or new numbers?

[neu5eeCh]

There is still the Ubuntu Foundation, that started with $10,000,000. There was a question on one of the mailing lists about using some of it for a new project, and Mark said no, just leave it as it is.

Given what the average distro has to work with, this is astronomical; but in terms of the companies Canonical would like to compete with, this is chump change. I don't see much of a relevant future for Canonical or Ubuntu, less Shuttleworth, if this is all they've got.

[vasa1]

Raphael: What about using the earnings of the dormant Ubuntu Foundation to fund some Debian projects?

Mark: The Foundation is there in the event of Canonical’s failure to ensure that commitments, like LTS maintenance, are met. It will hopefully be dormant for good ;-)
From: http://raphaelhertzog.com/2011/11/17/people-behind-debian-mark-shuttleworth-ubuntus-founder/

[vasa1]

Given what the average distro has to work with, this is astronomical; but in terms of the companies Canonical would like to compete with, this is chump change. I don't see much of a relevant future for Canonical or Ubuntu, less Shuttleworth, if this is all they've got.

I get the feeling you're going somewhere with this?

[neu5eeCh]

I get the feeling you're going somewhere with this?

No I'm not. Just trying to figure out what kind of business Canonical is.

I was just thinking, this afternoon, how glad I am to have an alternative to Apple and Microsoft (and it's free), and to what degree Shuttleworth, personally, is responsible for that. And that got me thinking... Is this amazing alternative just a temporary anomaly. Looks like Red Hat is here to stay but I'm half expecting OpenSuse to be thrown to the dogs any day now. There will always be Debian, but...

[forrestcupp]

Given what the average distro has to work with, this is astronomical; but in terms of the companies Canonical would like to compete with, this is chump change. I don't see much of a relevant future for Canonical or Ubuntu, less Shuttleworth, if this is all they've got.

For the most part, Canonical and Ubuntu take a bunch of software that is developed by a lot of other people and offered for free, and they package it all together into a distribution. In a pinch, how much money do you really have to have to do that? Especially with a huge community of volunteers.

[Primefalcon]

What are you guys talking about..... haven't you realize Mark Shuttleworth is an immortal? and we'll always have him around :D

Seriously though.... Last I heard Canonical was close or around to breaking even now.... and with it's steady growth... it will be way beyond that point way before anything happens to Mr Shuttleworth (touch wood).

I hope nothing does happen to him at any point anyhow, he is one person I seriously do respect!

[grahammechanical]

Now, what did people say about Amazon for all those years? Oh yea, it's not making a profit. Who would invest in a company like that? And who would have thought that anybody could make a fortune out of an internet search engine? Oh, and one more thing. What do people like least about Bill Gates? Microsoft makes such huge profits. Yea, that's it.

A better question to ask might be, what would happen to Ubuntu if the Gnome organization came apart at the seams and Gnome was poorly developed?

Regards.

[Primefalcon]

A better question to ask might be, what would happen to Ubuntu if the Gnome organization came apart at the seams and Gnome was poorly developed?

Regards.
Fork it fully which they've half done already anyhow with Unity.... Which frankly I think Canonical should do anyhow.... IMHO canonical would do a better job at it.....

Or.. lemme see there's lxde/xfce/kde/xpde/jwm among others....

[forrestcupp]

I don't think Unity is a fork. It runs on top of Gnome.