Five gadgets that will be dead in five years [Archive]

aysiu

May 16th, 2011, 11:29 PM

Netbooks slammed again for no reason?
But with an anemic processor and tiny display, netbooks were an imperfect solution. Today, you can buy a compact notebook with a fast processor and six or more hours of battery life for small premium over a netbook. Plus, tablets are much better tailored to those needing simple Web browsing, entertainment and light computing functions. I see. A 10" display on a netbook is a "tiny display" but it's just fine for a tablet? By the way, many netbooks have well over 6 hours of battery life.

I wish people would stop pretending consumer electronics is a meritocracy. Netbooks were poorly marketed (marketed at all?), deliberately crippled by Microsoft, and then bagged and made fun of in the press and by Steve Jobs multiple times. Most of the criticisms of netbooks are unfounded.

murderslastcrow

May 17th, 2011, 12:26 AM

Since the XOOM is making Android more of a household name for tablets, I think it will be unlikely for tablets to stay in the 500 dollars range when you can easily conjur up some hardware and sell a 200 dollar Android tablet right now. Also, I think e-ink is awesome, and it may soon be color-oriented, not just black and white, in which case I'm totally buying a CMYK monitor. That's the day I look forward to, honestly, even if there are less colors in that case, just because of what it can do for my eyes and print design. Just imagine a monitor that will show you exactly what the printer will come out with, without fail. It'd be glorious.

Lucradia

May 17th, 2011, 12:34 AM

Computer DVD/CD-ROM
Why they’re going extinct: Ultra-fast broadband connections are becoming much more common in the home. According to Speedtest.net, average download speeds in the U.S. are now over 11 megabits per second. That means programs can be downloaded in a matter of minutes, or even seconds. So why would you want to pay the extra cost of having a DVD printed, boxed and shipped to your home? You wouldn’t. And in five years it won’t even be an option.

1. Not ever in America. Why? Because the HS-Internet is still way too expensive a month. I mean, 69.99 USD/mo for 25 Mbps Down, 3 Mbps Up? (Note, I can download a raw file if and only if, the server I'm downloading from is at the same speed. My max download rate for the raw file is locked at the max of my up speed, as the upload speed determines the rate at which you can download a raw file.)

2. BD-RE and BD-Rs exist even in mom-pop IT Stores around where I live, so BDs are creeping in more and more.

Wireless routers
Why they’re going extinct: Wireless Internet access in homes will continue to be big business, but buying a wireless router in a store won’t be. Instead, your wireless capabilities will be packaged with the box your broadband Internet provider — cable, fiber, satellite — installs in your home. And as high-speed 4G cellular services roll out, more people will use their smartphones for broadband Internet, eliminating the need for a wireless router entirely.

1. Wireless Broadband via carriers is expensive. 99.99 USD/mo for Unlimited Web/Voice is very expensive. Add another 35 USD/mo for unlimited text.

2. Coverage is spotty in northern and central west states (mountains, etc.) Try again in like, 10 years.

3. The GPS thing falls under this too. You need mobile broadband or wifi spots to triangulate your direction. I'm not paying 120 or so USD/mo for what I need :V

The rest I can see dying definitely.

Netbooks slammed again for no reason? I see. A 10" display on a netbook is a "tiny display" but it's just fine for a tablet? By the way, many netbooks have well over 6 hours of battery life.

My ASUS 1015PE Seashell is the netbook with the largest life battery, but in linux, it still only gets in about 6 hours, even though it SHOULD get 10 or so hours. Even with brightness all the way down, etc.

JDShu

May 17th, 2011, 01:50 AM

Lucradia

May 17th, 2011, 02:18 AM

Are you using Jupiter?

Don't know what it is.

My netbook OS is in my signature, it says Xubuntu, so I suppose not.

IWantFroyo

May 17th, 2011, 02:33 AM

I agree with all but the ebook, just as ubuntuman001 said.
I have a Kindle, and I would much rather read off of it than off of a backlit screen. Besides, I want to read, not play Angry Birds.

3Miro

May 17th, 2011, 02:51 AM

1. Agree. If phones become reliable enough GPS then the regular GPS will be gone (although, they are not there yet).

2. Disagree. Disks give you great permanent storage. USB and HDD wear off, if Disks are taken good care of, they are practically eternal. Whether it is CD or DVD or BlueRay or the next iteration, disks will be around.

3. Disagree. This makes no sense. Both my sister and my parents got wireless modems/routers from her cable/DSL provider. They don't have to buy their own from the store, but they still got wireless routers. Even if the cable company installs one router per building, it is still a wireless router. I don't get the point.

4. Half-Agree. Netbooks are in the middle between tables (like iPad) and full laptops. When the price for thin laptops (like MavBook Air or System76's Lemur) get cheaper, then Netbooks will be obsolete. There are now Android phones with Atom CPU and tablets can be powered by weak CPUs like that. The CPU will be around, just in a slightly different form.

5. Don't much about it, but I guess I agree. If those are just less featured tablets, then they will go away.

krapp

May 17th, 2011, 02:55 AM

n7cee

May 17th, 2011, 03:00 AM

The GPS receiver in smartphones is not nearly as sensitive or reliable as those in dedicated GPS units made by Garmin, TomTom, etc. Smartphone GPS is intended to let 911 dispatchers locate the caller and was not designed for general use. Plus, dedicated trail GPS receivers have far better battery life and the batteries can be replaced in the field. So dedicated GPS won't go away until phones have the same receiver chips.

Gremlinzzz

May 17th, 2011, 03:08 AM

The computer tower!

IWantFroyo

May 17th, 2011, 03:11 AM

5. Don't much about it, but I guess I agree. If those are just less featured tablets, then they will go away.

This is true, but I can't stand reading off backlit screens for a long time. Tablets will most likely always be backlit, but as electronic reading doesn't seem like it will die, I think there will always be some market for eReaders.

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 03:14 AM

You're all kidding about the objection to the death of software CDs, right? I mean, on a Linux forum, really?

I agree with the author that netbooks and e-book readers are likely to die, but only in the sense that they're going to become classes of tablets (as I'd mentioned in the other thread.) Tablets are getting cheaper and likely to get a whole lot cheaper again. E-book readers really are a transitional thing, and they're likely to disappear in favor of low-powered tablets at the $200 mark.

I hate that netbooks are primarily seen as cheap machines, too. I just see it as the ideal form factor, and have since before they were generally available. But tablets with slide-out and snap-on keyboards are going to start doing all of the same things without the poor marketing.

I didn't get the feeling that any of this article was a particularly informed opinion, though - it just seemed like a mix of stating the obvious and speculating baselessly, in the same way we were doing in the "Future of the Desktop" thread. There's a hint of wanting to shock the uninformed, too; the bit about mobile broadband is pretty much jet packs at this point.

These articles are fairly common, and it's always five years; about five years ago, I remember an article citing mice as likely to be extinct by now.

Antarctica32

May 17th, 2011, 03:15 AM

OMG WTF! how could some1 think ereaders were going extinct! There is a clear market for cheap devices that use little power, have e-ink screens, and are designed for reading books! The ipad, galaxy tab, xoom, etc. do not offer any of those! There is no way in hell that kindles will go extinct!

simpleblue

May 17th, 2011, 03:21 AM

The computer tower!
Agreed!

I was just going to mention that I think the Netbooks will be around for a while longer while they replace the home PCs. Not everyone needs a huge ugly computer tower to do the simple things they need a pc for. MIght as well get a nice looking laptop and save some space in the house and have the freedom to carry it around that more and more people expect from electronics.

I think that e-readers are on their way out. If people want to read books on a device and they want to browse the net they likely don't want to carry two electronic devices around. Better to just get the one that does both.

And likely they'll just start making car holders you can put your Android in so you can use it for navigation. And the PRO navigation devices, even if more accurate, are not going to be as helpful as google cn get; streetview, looking up places, restaurants, voice navigation, auto-dialing places you look up, info...

Philsoki

May 17th, 2011, 03:31 AM

I don't think e-readers are going away in the next five years either. I love my Kindle and stare at its beautiful e-ink display almost as much as I stare at my monitor. Five years from now isn't when e-readers will die, it's when I'll get an upgrade. :D

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 03:35 AM

themarker0

May 17th, 2011, 03:45 AM

I disagree with most of that. I know most of my friends heading to college this year are buying a netbook, and a strong tower.

I'm buying an ereader for the fact that i don't want to buy books. Though it would suprise me if this market is completely killed by tablets. I personally think only the galaxy is the right size, and its crap.

DVD's are still an option. People like MSNBC forget that there are a lot of people that don't have highspeed. I have friends in my schooling district that still use dial up.

Wireless routers: ARE YOU KIDDING ME? Sersiously? I have like 4 different networks at home. The box ISP sends people is so crap that it wouldn't let the tech connect to it.

Philsoki

May 17th, 2011, 03:45 AM

Everything that goes into a Kindle is a transitional phase of a technology that wants to be in a tablet. By the time the processors can turn a page in a reasonable number of nanoseconds, they'll be perfectly fine for web browsing, too, and e-ink is either going to get a hell of a lot better or go away in favor of passive-light LCD technologies. For that matter, an iPad is already readable in sunlight. The e-reader is the consumption-end equivalent of a Brother word processor.
I have yet to see a single person anywhere read an iPad in sunlight. Can they really be used under bright conditions?

And I think Colour e-ink will be pretty common before 2016 (http://www.eink.com/display_products_triton.html).

Whatever way the market goes, I think e-readers as we know them now (Amazon Kindle, Sony Reader, etc) will still be around only with upgraded e-ink displays and a few more features. Though I really only use my kindle to read, read, read some more and look up definitions.:P

3rdalbum

May 17th, 2011, 03:57 AM

1. GPS navigation standalone units. I think they'll split into two categories: Ultra-entry-level, and professional-level. Smartphones will eat the lunch out of the mid-range category, at least once Google Maps can be used offline :-) . So, agreed, to a point.

2. Computer DVD/CD-ROM. Are they kidding? DVDs won't go away in five years. You can't use an internet connection to boot a computer to install an operating system. Broadband is still expensive and time-consuming for downloading the contents of an 8 GiB DVD.

3. Wireless routers that you can buy in stores. I can see this happening but it would take longer than five years I'm sure.

4. Netbooks. I think they will, but not through lack of merit. Lots of manufacturers will stop making netbooks because the hype is around tablets. Said manufacturers won't get my money when my netbook dies.

5. E-book readers might also disappear, though not through lack of merit. An earlier poster said that "People who want to read books would rather pay $200 for an e-reader than $500 for a tablet" - well, recently I bought an e-reader as a present and it cost $200 AU, but any Telstra dealer can sell you a T-touch Tab for $200 or a Samsung Galaxy Tab for $300.

I would however like a colour, touchscreen tablet using e-ink, with a keyboard of some description. That would be pretty alright.

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 04:28 AM

4. Netbooks. I think they will, but not through lack of merit. Lots of manufacturers will stop making netbooks because the hype is around tablets. Said manufacturers won't get my money when my netbook dies.
Check this (http://promos.asus.com/US/EeePadTransformer/?gclid=CKDD86GE7qgCFchJ2godBUMIFA) out then. I love Asus.

I have yet to see a single person anywhere read an iPad in sunlight. Can they really be used under bright conditions?
Yes. Some bastard embarrassed the hell out of me at the coffee shop while we were both out smoking in the patio. I was leaning and trying to find the right spot of shade for my Eee while he plinky-tapped away - it was like a goddamned advertisement played out in real life.

2. Computer DVD/CD-ROM. Are they kidding? DVDs won't go away in five years. You can't use an internet connection to boot a computer to install an operating system. Broadband is still expensive and time-consuming for downloading the contents of an 8 GiB DVD.
Well, more relevantly, the bits-in-boxes model just isn't quite ready to die. I haven't used a CD for data, or most certainly software, in ages - I burned boot CDs for my last machine, since it had a CD drive, and that's the extent of it - but I guess I'm neither a power user nor bandwidth-limited.

Oxwivi

May 17th, 2011, 05:36 AM

Netbooks slammed again for no reason? I see. A 10" display on a netbook is a "tiny display" but it's just fine for a tablet? By the way, many netbooks have well over 6 hours of battery life.

I wish people would stop pretending consumer electronics is a meritocracy. Netbooks were poorly marketed (marketed at all?), deliberately crippled by Microsoft, and then bagged and made fun of in the press and by Steve Jobs multiple times. Most of the criticisms of netbooks are unfounded.
Netbooks may've had a bad press, but from my experience, I agree with the points they brought up.

Now moving on to disagreements. Routers dying? Get real! I don't know how internet service is sold in the Americas, but here (United Arab Emirates, Middle East) the wired to home connections gives no data caps but a limit to bandwidth for a fixed price every month. Wired is already overpriced compared to first world countries, and internet to the phone is even more expensive with data caps. And what about the laptops? I've never seen one with 4G capabilities - have you?

Just like how DVD's appearance started speculation of CD's end, likewise they speculate a doom never to come. At least not in Linux user circles. USBs are popular but CDs will remain - hover less in number.

E-readers, while I personally have no experience with 'em, I think they won't die out but remain is a small niche.

PhillyPhil

May 17th, 2011, 05:45 AM

My ASUS 1015PE Seashell is the netbook with the largest life battery, but in linux, it still only gets in about 6 hours, even though it SHOULD get 10 or so hours. Even with brightness all the way down, etc.
There are multiple sub-models of the 1015PE (more letters following the PE), and some have worse battery lives. Eg. they make crappier ones to sell at Best Buy, etc, etc. They did the same with the 1005PE.

The Msi U110 is advertised at 15 hours.
Eee 1005PE advertised at 14 hours (I have one, and can get 12 hours, running 10.10)
Eee 1015PE advertised at 13.5 hours.

The article talking up laptops with 6 hours is silly! 6 hours is pathetic.

I'd agree with 3/5 from the article: I personally intend to own a netbook in 5 years ;), and I supect she's just plain wrong about wireless routers.

But yeah, smartphones will kill GPS, tablets will drop in price and kill/absorb ereaders (I read only on my phone), and DVDs are already dead for me...

Gerontion

May 17th, 2011, 06:40 AM

Not everyone in the world lives in an environment with ultra-fast internet connections and access to the latest gadgetry; where I live, we don't have 3g yet, so the idea that we're not going to need DVDs because we'll all be plugged into SkyNet is just absurd. As for GPS navigation, it has yet to make it here.

Onoku

May 17th, 2011, 06:55 AM

I agree with all but the ebook, just as ubuntuman001 said.
I have a Kindle, and I would much rather read off of it than off of a backlit screen. Besides, I want to read, not play Angry Birds.

My thoughts exactly. I don't see e-readers disappearing any time soon. I would much rather have a dedicated reading device... now if only they could come up with a way to give it the book smell as well...

Peter09

May 17th, 2011, 07:17 AM

The thing with all these devices is that they will move around somewhat in design. The ereader for instance, it will develop through better e-ink technology and move towards the tablet, so at some point it will be difficult to determine where the boundaries between a tablet and an e-ink reader start, just as netbook/laptop boundaries will blur further than they are today.

The interesting thing about phones is utility - for instance, mobile phones used to be 'bricks' then they became very small so that you could easily carry them, now they are getting larger again. Sometimes I would like a phone to be a phone :-) They are going to be limited by portability.

Upcoming things - flexible screen technology - could we have computers/phones integrated with clothing?

The thing about predicting the future is that you can only do it by projecting the past, and looking back at previous predictions that has not proved very successful.

JDShu

May 17th, 2011, 07:19 AM

Don't know what it is.

My netbook OS is in my signature, it says Xubuntu, so I suppose not.

Give it a try, it should help extend your battery life.

LowSky

May 17th, 2011, 07:26 AM

i saw this article a while ago on yahoo.com.

Its a trash article for people who dont know jack about electronics. it reads like a puff piece to get idiots to spend more cash on tech that is unstable and unproven.

for the record phone gps is just as accurate as standalone units. the difference is that phone gps uses over the air maps that need to have a connection to work. gps units uses stored maps.

wifi for most users is a pain in the butt. most people set a password and forget. they never mess with the channel frequency or connection settings. most people think the connection is weak or unreliable because of this.

i never thought a kindle would be worth it, but now i think it is kinda cool. i own a tablet and realize i barely use it. thank goodness it cost me only $300 vs the xoom or samsung tablet at 500.

dvd's are going out of style... because the industry wants to control the rental profits. on demand means less pirated copies and controlled viewing. look at netflix... a month behind release dates, just so on demand makes cash first.

wireless interent sucks for one reason ping rates... i will use a wired connection whenever possible. oh and the data is a bit more secure.

i own a netbook. love it. small light and with the right settings perfect for a classroom setting or flight. arch linux with gnome 3 flies.

wolfen69

May 17th, 2011, 07:47 AM

Netbooks slammed again for no reason?

People have nothing better to do. ;)

I put an SSD and another gb of ram in mine and it runs beautifully. I just don't use it much when at home. I have a powerhouse desktop, so no real need.

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 08:16 AM

Yeah, I always forget to make that distinction. On one gig of RAM, my machine wasn't exactly a laptop replacement, and I wouldn't know what to do with the ones I've messed with on magnetic drives.

ve4cib

May 17th, 2011, 08:50 AM

I'm having a lot of trouble seeing any of those products being gone within 5 years.

Wireless routers I can see being less-common in box stores, but I doubt they'll be gone entirely. There will always be people who live in a house that's built like a faraday cage and need multiple wireless access points. And there's the case for small businesses, schools, universities, etc... who will need some kind of off-the-shelf wireless router. Rolling the wireless capability into your DSL or Cable modem makes sense, but that costs the ISPs money, which I don't see them being likely to spend if they don't need to.

Netbooks I think will always exist in some flavour. Whether we call them "netbooks" or "cheap, tiny laptops" they've established themselves as the low-end of the portable computing spectrum. The tired old argument of "a tablet will fill the role of entertainment/web-browsing use" and "for a few $100 more you can get a real laptop" just don't feel convincing to me. I think there will always be some segment of the population that wants a clamshell laptop with a tactile keyboard, but wants it to be as cheap as possible. Netbooks will probably gradually morph into conventional laptops with small (<=10") displays, but that size and form-factor works for enough people that I think manufacturers will keep making them for quite some time.

I really don't have much experience with tablets or E-Readers, but based on what little experience I have, until tablets come with e-ink displays instead of backlit LCDs I don't think the e-reader will die off. It's a bit of a niche tool, and will likely stay that way -- I have no expectations that the e-reader will ever become as ubiquitous as the tablet. But for people who just want something to carry around their library of paperbacks to read on the bus the e-reader seems like the obvious choice.

However, if they can make touchscreen tablets with displays you can read on for hours at a time without hurting your eyes, then yes, e-readers will probably start to die off.

In-car GPS devices I can see starting to die off. But they do an excellent job serving tourists and other travellers. Imagine you're renting a car in a new city, and you don't want to a: buy a local data plan or b: pay hefty roaming charges for using your data on vacation. The in-car, dedicated GPS unit is the obvious choice. Will they largely vanish from the general consumer market? Probably. But I expect we'll still see them on rental vehicles for at least another 10-15 years. Possibly even longer.

And the dedicated GPS will probably never go away entirely. For outdoor enthusiasts -- who frequently go to places with spotty or no cellular coverage -- there will likely always be a market for a purpose-built, rugged, water- and shock-proof GPS device.

CD and DVD drives I'm on the fence about. Within 10-15 years I expect DVD and Blue-Ray discs to go the way of the audio cassette, and be replaced by either streaming/downloading, or simple USB sticks that won't wear out the way optical drives with all their moving parts do. Audio CDs are already going that way, thanks in large part to the propagation of mp3 players.

But the sheer volume of software out there that's only available on optical disc will likely necessitate these drives existence for at least the next 5 years, possibly 10. They'll remain an available option for that period on desktops at least for the next 5 years. They'll be fading out, but I don't expect them to vanish entirely within the next half a decade.

sv87411

May 17th, 2011, 09:13 AM

1) In-car portable. This'll die not because of smartphones, but because eventually all cars will have it built in. You won't need a separate portable device. The smartphone is not the 'killer' technology that will replace all others.

2) CD/DVD. These will still be around in five years. The CD has been around as a data storage mechanism since about 1990 with re-writeables since the late 90s. Read only and the re-writeable DVds followed about 5 years after. CDs are still around 20 years after their introduction because they still work. They are a cheap, high capacity permenant storage mechanism and until the price of flash memory per Mb can match a CD/DVD companies will still ship software on them and people will still use them for backup/archiving. They may be used less, but they'll still be around.

3) Wireless routers. Hmmm. Buying a wireless router in store is going to go extinct. Not wireless routers. The 'gadget' won't be extinct, the way you acquire it will be. This shouldn't even be on the list!

4) Netbooks. Netbooks, notebooks, laptops. They're all pretty much the same technology delivered in different sizes. The netbook concept was just a way for manufacturers to test the boundaries of what could be squeezed into a workable, but small footprint. That concept will still be around, it'll just be re-branded. A tablet is already a netbook, just without a mechanical keyboard. Tablets owe their existence to netbooks and the netbook genes will live on in.

5) E-Readers. She eventually gets round to admitting at the end of the paragraph that she means "black and white e-ink readers". Well ya don't say. Of course they'll be gone. They'll be replaced with new colour e-ink readers. They'll still be around as discrete devices though. Not everyone wants to shell out for an expensive tablet to read books on. In fact I'd be prepared to predict that e-reading will actually suffer as gadget nuts buy e-reader because they're cool and re-kindle (pun absolutely intended) their interest in reading. Then they'll realise that books are cheaper, more portable, don't run out of battery, can be read almost anywhere (and safely in the bath), are easily shared, look wonderful on shelves in your home, smell good, can be donated to charity, are far more tactile and you actually own your library rather than rent it from Amazon.

Johnsie

May 17th, 2011, 09:40 AM

Netbooks slammed again for no reason?

My netbook is my single most important computing device, even more important than my phone. I have a tablet... it makes a good ornament. Typing on a netbook is not much fun, but typing on a tablet is a disaster so I only use it when I fly or to listen to music. To me the ideal computing device would be a touch screen netbook that also has a mechanical keyboard.

I noticed that they disabled commenting on the article itself, probably because they knew all her arguments would be torn to pieces.

jhonan

May 17th, 2011, 10:22 AM

Having used my mobile phone for occasional satnav use in the car for the past year, I'm probably going to buy a garmin or a tomtom (and I even had a special holder for the phone, so I could mount it on the dash)

- The phone takes too long to get a good satellite lock. Sometimes I'd be driving aimlessly for 10 minutes before hearing "your route is being calculated..... turn around where possible"

- GPS really drains the phone battery. If I get into the car and forgot my charger, then I'm either going to have the GPS cutting out at the most critical moment, or get to the destination with a dead phone.

- A phone is... a phone! There's nothing worse than halfway through a route getting an incoming call. Press the wrong button and you have to go through the whole satellite lock thing again. The voice call and the satnav software don't work well together.

- For the sake of €100 I can leave a dedicated satnav in the glovebox, fully charged, and ready to use at a moments notice. And it gets a good satellite lock quickly.

Another reason dedicated satnavs won't become extinct is simply this; car manufacturers will start supplying them as standard kit in cars.

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 10:32 AM

Netbooks will probably gradually morph into conventional laptops with small (<=10") displays, but that size and form-factor works for enough people that I think manufacturers will keep making them for quite some time.

I agree with your assessment, but not the terminology - how are we defining "netbook" then? "Comes with one gig of RAM"? "Has the cheapest integrated graphics card Intel had in the bin"? The 11" Macbook Air, for instance, is a netbook, regardless of its being slightly more capable in performance terms, because that's the form factor. There's no other distinction; a netbook is a laptop with no optical drive and a display under twelve inches.

Grenage

May 17th, 2011, 10:34 AM

Aside from a laptop, I haven't bothered with a CD drive in my computers for years. They're hardly going to disappear; it's a horrid medium, but often necessary.

I can't see e-readers going anywhere soon.

I've never seen the attraction of netbooks, but then again I've never seen the attraction of cross-dressing; it's still popular.

PhillyPhil

May 17th, 2011, 10:55 AM

Netbooks will probably gradually morph into conventional laptops with small (<=10") displays, but that size and form-factor works for enough people that I think manufacturers will keep making them for quite some time.

That's what 'netbook' is: a marketing name for a laptop with a screen <=10'' :P
(I know there's some other restrictions from MS on hardware for cheap copies of XP that often go hand in hand with netbooks, but netbooks aren't an MS invention, and aren't defined by them)
I agree with your assessment, but not the terminology - how are we defining "netbook" then? "Comes with one gig of RAM"? "Has the cheapest integrated graphics card Intel had in the bin"? The 11" Macbook Air, for instance, is a netbook, regardless of its being slightly more capable in performance terms, because that's the form factor. There's no other distinction; a netbook is a laptop with no optical drive and a display under twelve inches.

What would you call a 10'' laptop *with* optical drive? I'd call it a netbook, and I suspect most people would - in other words I don't agree with your 'no optical drive' definition. All that matters is screen size.

As for 11'' or 12'' laptops being 'netbooks', that's just a bastardization of the term 'netbook' for marketing purposes (not that it matters, seeing as that's all the word ever existed for). 10'' is a *large* netbook. Anything larger is a laptop.

And I think Steve Jobs would strongly object to calling an 11'' macbook air a netbook! ;)

mips

May 17th, 2011, 11:35 AM

Yeah, high speed internet is really taking shape in South Africa.

Huh?

Copper Bezel

May 17th, 2011, 12:01 PM

And I think Steve Jobs would strongly object to calling an 11'' macbook air a netbook!

Part of why I enjoy doing so. = ) Still, if I was going to leave any corporation to define what counts as a netbook, I don't see how it could be anyone but Asus, and they're split even on 12.1" models sold under the Asus and Eee marks (the latter reserved for their tablet and netbook lines,) with everything below that being called a "netbook" and everything above being called a "notebook." Eight and nine inch displays have been disappearing lately, and 10" has simply become the standard size for netbooks and tablets. I'd think that anything slightly larger or slightly smaller would just be a deviation from that thing.

I think I'd call a netbook with an optical drive a poor, confused little creature that ought to be put out if its misery and leave it at that. = )

Throne777

May 17th, 2011, 12:12 PM

1) Probably true

2) Not particularly plausible, at least in the UK. Internet speeds here are still pretty crappy unless you happen to live in a select few areas. Not only that, but many providers still have download caps (despite claiming it's unlimited -I still don't know how they get away with this). Also, I like having physical copies. I'm one of those people that still insists on buying CDs :P

3) Probably true

4) Undecided

5) Not a chance.

el_koraco

May 17th, 2011, 12:58 PM

Huh?

My bad, i meant subsaharan Africa, it was 1 AM local time when I was writing this :D

el_koraco

May 17th, 2011, 01:00 PM

I'd think that anything slightly larger or slightly smaller would just be a deviation from that thing.

aren't 12'' netbooks being classified as "sub-notebooks"?

Nerotriple6

May 17th, 2011, 01:05 PM

5 gadgets that will be dead.

iPhone.
iPhone 2.
iPhone 3G.
iPhone 4.
iPhone 5.
:D

SoFl W

May 17th, 2011, 01:18 PM

I could see the stand-alone GPS market getting smaller as newer cars have them as standard equipment. However owners of older cars, hikers/outdoors people will still want to use stand alone portable units with special features the phone doesn't have. A friend of mine who likes to kayak will keep his phone in a plastic bag, inside another bag when he is out on the water and he uses his lower end, entry level GPS to record and navigate his trips. If the inexpensive GPS falls in the water or gets damaged he is less upset then if he lost his smart phone.

I think ereaders and tablets will probably merge into one type of product. The Nook color has an Internet browser and can use Android Apps

I could see CD/DVD/Blueray players going the way of the 5 1/4, 3 1/2 inch disk drives. With streaming content and smaller flash drives that store more data it could very well happen.

If the wireless routers built into the modem come with port forwarding and features of a standard routers the combo units might eliminate separate units.

Lucradia

May 17th, 2011, 01:29 PM

There are multiple sub-models of the 1015PE (more letters following the PE), and some have worse battery lives. Eg. they make crappier ones to sell at Best Buy, etc, etc. They did the same with the 1005PE.

The Msi U110 is advertised at 15 hours.
Eee 1005PE advertised at 14 hours (I have one, and can get 12 hours, running 10.10)
Eee 1015PE advertised at 13.5 hours.

Mine is just a PE model, nothing after the PE.

PhillyPhil

May 17th, 2011, 01:49 PM

Mine is just a PE model, nothing after the PE.

It's not written on the unit, but it has a 'submodel', nonetheless.
It looks like Eee 1015PE-MU27-BU, where BU is the colour, and MU27 is the 'sub-model'. My 1005PE is a PU17 submodel, from memory (it's not written on mine either).

One of the 1005PE submodels was specifically for BestBuy, and had a much shorter battery life than the PU17.

Peter09

May 17th, 2011, 01:50 PM

The other thing that differentiates an ebook reader from anything else is the weight. My ebook reader weighs the same, or less, than my phone. It is a truly mobile device and with a battery life measured in weeks. And, as an example, I can read it on the beach in the Sun. (not that I actually do).

Every criticism of ebook readers tends to focus on things it won't do - however the majority of people have them to read books, not play games or surf the net etc. Going on holiday (flying) used to be a pain with lots of books - not now.

As the price falls for these readers I can see them impacting at a greater level, for instance Schools and Universities. No more lugging large heavy reference books about.

Gremlinzzz

May 17th, 2011, 02:06 PM

Agreed!

I was just going to mention that I think the Netbooks will be around for a while longer while they replace the home PCs. Not everyone needs a huge ugly computer tower to do the simple things they need a pc for. MIght as well get a nice looking laptop and save some space in the house and have the freedom to carry it around that more and more people expect from electronics.

I think that e-readers are on their way out. If people want to read books on a device and they want to browse the net they likely don't want to carry two electronic devices around. Better to just get the one that does both.

And likely they'll just start making car holders you can put your Android in so you can use it for navigation. And the PRO navigation devices, even if more accurate, are not going to be as helpful as google cn get; streetview, looking up places, restaurants, voice navigation, auto-dialing places you look up, info...

Laptops and the all in one pc=no more towers

giddyup306

May 17th, 2011, 02:35 PM

I very strongly disagree with the first one. Over the past 6 months, I have driven my personal car over 25,000 miles with three trips roundtrip from Omaha to L.A. and a roundtrip from Omaha to Miami for starters. I even did a little bit of OTR trucking in the Midwest...

Here's why smartphones are inferior to stand alone GPS units. Even if it doesn't fall under your seat which is usually where mine ends up in about 5 minutes, I would rather look at the 7" monitor on my head unit than try and loot at a tiny 4" screen on my phone. That and my phone is not integrated with my car audio. I've missed several turns while getting lost in an audio book or music. This is sometimes my fault, but sometimes it isn't. The signal in Central and Western Nebraska, Western Colorado, most of Utah, and a whole lot of parts in Kansas consistently cuts out signal, sometimes for an hour or more! Or if you miss a turn the rerouting is very slow causing you to miss the next three turns to correct where you were. A stand alone antenna is the only way to go! I've had 5 GPSs. The google maps one on my droid sucks bad. I have copilot 8 on it as well. This is better in a lot of ways because it downloads maps, and uses the GPS as a reference. But it's drawback is that to download all of North America (about 2 GB) you have to have use a wifi. I tether my droid, so I don't have a wifi that I can use. This leaves you relying only on the GPS, or you can download the states individually when you need them (it's slow). There was even one state that I couldn't find anywhere in any of the regions (I think it was Arizona). Which leads me to another point. Why didn't they just list them by state? My only other option was to torrent the large files, but I couldn't get them to work. Yes, I did buy the registration key.

del_diablo

May 17th, 2011, 02:36 PM

1. Car GPS death?
Most likely no, but it could happen.

2. CD-DVD roms death?
Well, the pesky thing about them is that physical distribution for games won't end anytime soon.
I can see its death for a lot of software.
But the physical media itself will likely not die

3. Wirelss routers dieing for 5G broadband?
Yes and no.
It will die of in areas where it is decent 5G coverage, and the service producers sells it for reasonable prices.
But one most remember it competes against cable: Which will still be dirth cheap.
In a lot of areas the providers will never roll out proper bandwith over broadband, so over there it won't catch on.
I guess it 5G broadband will catch on in Norway, once the distributors gets of their arses and price it reasonable.

4. Netbooks will die.
Yes, the segment will be replaced by tablets, IF decent tablets comes around

5. E-readers death?
The e-reader as a "book only" device will die, it will be replaced by tablets that has the same "not backlight"-tech.
However, the e-ink and whatever replaces it? Those will not die.
Black & white e-readers will either die, or be replaced by sleek black & white low-end tablets.

walt.smith1960

May 17th, 2011, 02:59 PM

My netbook is my single most important computing device, even more important than my phone. I have a tablet... it makes a good ornament. Typing on a netbook is not much fun, but typing on a tablet is a disaster so I only use it when I fly or to listen to music. To me the ideal computing device would be a touch screen netbook that also has a mechanical keyboard.

I noticed that they disabled commenting on the article itself, probably because they knew all her arguments would be torn to pieces.

Already available as a keyboard built into a tablet folder. I don't have one but have been looking at them while waiting for the tablet market to mature a little. An Android tablet is strapped in and USB connection plugged in , you have a sorta-netbook that can be slimmed down by removing it from the folder/holder/whatever.
http://www.amazon.com/10-2-Leather-Keyboard-Stylus-Black/dp/B004JQN670/ref=pd_cp_e_1 for one example.

HappinessNow

May 17th, 2011, 03:01 PM

in ten years the pad-type computer fad will be a distant memory and the desktop PC will be all but forgotten

Lucradia

May 17th, 2011, 03:14 PM

It's not written on the unit, but it has a 'submodel', nonetheless.
It looks like Eee 1015PE-MU27-BU, where BU is the colour, and MU27 is the 'sub-model'. My 1005PE is a PU17 submodel, from memory (it's not written on mine either).

One of the 1005PE submodels was specifically for BestBuy, and had a much shorter battery life than the PU17.

BestBuy carries more than one Seashell :V of varying colors and whatnot.

Philsoki

May 17th, 2011, 03:56 PM

5) E-Readers.Then they'll realise that books are cheaper, more portable, don't run out of battery, can be read almost anywhere (and safely in the bath), are easily shared, look wonderful on shelves in your home, smell good, can be donated to charity, are far more tactile and you actually own your library rather than rent it from Amazon.

The last two paperback books I purchased cost me over $50.00, that was three months ago (About a week after I received my Kindle). They were definitely not cheaper than buying books from the Kindle store on Amazon. The total cost of the two books if purchased from the Amazon kindle store would have cost me a total of $16.42, or saved me a total of roughly $33.00. As for running out of battery life, I read my Kindle for a few hours a day and I never turn it off. I haven't charged it in over a week (Maybe two, but I don't want to exaggerate by accident). Here's the battery life as of right now:
http://k.min.us/iEQY.jpg

Hopefully you can see that it's over 3/4 full - sorry about the shoddy picture quality, I used my webcam.:D
So really, battery life isn't an issue. I mean come on, our phones run out of juice in a day and we manage to keep them going, this thing lasts about a month without being turned off. To date, I haven't had the problem of running out of battery life and don't think I will till/if the device breaks.

As for reading a book safely in the bath... It might be safe for a human being to read off paper in the bath, but it's probably not desirable for the book/ink. I don't think either the kindle or paperback are good for the bath - though this is a strange point to me since I don't read in the bathroom anyway... Heh.

As for the point on sharing books, as e-readers become cheaper and more wide spread I think sharing books will probably become quite easy. It's definitely very easy to "share" books over the internet, and I can see a time when it will be possible to share them between e-readers. Kind of like MP3 players, only with e-readers.

Also, I don't rent my books from Amazon - I buy them. Amazon has no way of taking the books I've bought from them away from me. They're all safely backed up on my HDD as well as in my Kindle Library.

Wow, this turned out long...:P

Dry Lips

May 17th, 2011, 04:18 PM

From the article:

Five years from now there will be tablets oriented toward e-reading, but the black-and-white e-ink readers will be gone.
I don't see dedicated e-readers disappearing, in fact, the very opposite
is going to happen. E-readers will become better and far more widespread
than they are today. The e-reader technology is still in its infancy, what will
come next is e-readers with electronic ink that displays colours. When this
happens, things could change very rapidly. So black and white e-readers will
certainly disappear, but will be replaced by superior technology.

I tell ya: a revolution is on its way!

frankbooth

May 17th, 2011, 04:19 PM

That list was pretty bad... None of those technologies will be dead in 5 years.

BrokenKingpin

May 17th, 2011, 04:40 PM

Netbooks slammed again for no reason? I see. A 10" display on a netbook is a "tiny display" but it's just fine for a tablet? By the way, many netbooks have well over 6 hours of battery life.

I wish people would stop pretending consumer electronics is a meritocracy. Netbooks were poorly marketed (marketed at all?), deliberately crippled by Microsoft, and then bagged and made fun of in the press and by Steve Jobs multiple times. Most of the criticisms of netbooks are unfounded.
Agreed. I love my netbook, and for what I use it for a tablet could not replace it (lots of typing, so a physical keyboard is necessary).

EDIT: As for the wireless routers, I also disagree. The wireless routers integrated into the modems are terrible; they often do not have Ethernet ports, the firmware is crap, and do not support the more advanced features of stand alone routers.

As for the CD/DVD drives, yeah I could see those being less, but they will move to blue-ray drives in desktop for sure. The person who wrote this article doesn't seem to understand technology at all.

Calash

May 17th, 2011, 04:52 PM

1 - Agree with effect, disagree with reason and time. Portable units will fade but only as car manufacturers offer navigation as a more standard option. This will slow the fadout as you have a good 20+ year cycle of older cars that needs to cycle through the user space.

2 - Someday it is possible but not in the next 5 or 10 years. I still have clients using floppy disks on Windows 2000. Unless the turnover rate of hardware is increased (Microsoft would say it is 3-5 years, it is actually closer to 10) the legacy media will remain.

3 - Rubbish. Nobody is going to want 4g as home internet with caps and connection limits and it is just more cost effective to offer wireless routers as an option rather than bundled.

4 - I can see this. The surge in tablets and ultra-light laptops is really hurting any demand for a netbook.

5 - I don't see the eBook trend fading any time soon unless the companies pushing it go to a color-only hardware platform. eInk is where they should be staying with these devices. As soon as they try to compete with tablets they will lose.

wizard10000

May 17th, 2011, 05:06 PM

...Most of the criticisms of netbooks are unfounded.

90% of my computer use is on my netbook. Rather than go the SSD route I put a fast 500gb hard drive in mine and upgraded RAM to 2GB.

Right now the netbook has all the same apps my desktop PC has and will run them all. I wouldn't render video on the thing - been there, done that, reserved that function for the i7 desktop but it's got ten times the functionality of any tablet I've seen and battery life is a tad over seven hours.

polardude1983

May 17th, 2011, 05:52 PM

I dont think DVD/CD drives will go extinct.

Since I live in the hill country I pay $60 for 1 mbps. Yes it sucks.

BrokenKingpin

May 17th, 2011, 06:26 PM

I dont think DVD/CD drives will go extinct.
But BluRay drives will, and they support DVDs and CDs. I don't like optical media, but with BluRay still being very new it is not going anywhere soon.

PhillyPhil

May 18th, 2011, 12:13 AM

BestBuy carries more than one Seashell :V of varying colors and whatnot.

Not sure what your point is.

All Eee netbooks have ''submodels''.
They look something like Eee 1015PE-MU27-BU, where BU is the colour, and MU27 is the 'sub-model'.

My 1005PE is a PU17 submodel, from memory (it's not written on the unit).

One of the 1005PE submodels was specifically for BestBuy, and had a much shorter battery life than the PU17.

Lucradia

May 18th, 2011, 12:28 AM

Not sure what your point is.

All Eee netbooks have ''submodels''.
They look something like Eee 1015PE-MU27-BU, where BU is the colour, and MU27 is the 'sub-model'.

My 1005PE is a PU17 submodel, from memory (it's not written on the unit).

One of the 1005PE submodels was specifically for BestBuy, and had a much shorter battery life than the PU17.

All mine says on the bottom under the battery is 1015PE-BBK603.

PhillyPhil

May 18th, 2011, 01:05 AM

All mine says on the bottom under the battery is 1015PE-BBK603.

Again, if you have a point I'm missing it entirely.

Eees below the model ID (eg 1015PE) have submodels (eg MU27), and they are not created equal. That means you can have two machines, both called ''1015PE-****'', but get different battery lives.

Edit: a quick google reveals that your submodel (BBK603) is indeed the BestBuy 1015PE submodel, so I'm not surprised it has a shorter battery life.

Lucradia

May 18th, 2011, 02:49 AM

Again, if you have a point I'm missing it entirely.

Eees below the model ID (eg 1015PE) have submodels (eg MU27), and they are not created equal. That means you can have two machines, both called ''1015PE-****'', but get different battery lives.

Edit: a quick google reveals that your submodel (BBK603) is indeed the BestBuy 1015PE submodel, so I'm not surprised it has a shorter battery life.

Then I should sue for false advertising? Because in windows on nothing but idle, it still doesn't last the advertise speed at lowest brightness, etc.

Best Buy would just say that their test suite does minimal tests and cannot be compared to anything I do.

SuperFreak

May 18th, 2011, 03:03 AM

This one is definitely dead

http://gizmodo.com/5795572/theyre-shutting-down-the-last-typewriter-factory

Copper Bezel

May 18th, 2011, 04:22 AM

Already available as a keyboard built into a tablet folder. I don't have one but have been looking at them while waiting for the tablet market to mature a little. An Android tablet is strapped in and USB connection plugged in , you have a sorta-netbook that can be slimmed down by removing it from the folder/holder/whatever.
http://www.amazon.com/10-2-Leather-Keyboard-Stylus-Black/dp/B004JQN670/ref=pd_cp_e_1 for one example.
Nobody bloody listens to me. (http://promos.asus.com/US/EeePadTransformer/?gclid=CKDD86GE7qgCFchJ2godBUMIFA) = P

aren't 12'' netbooks being classified as "sub-notebooks"?
Generally, yes. I've seen them called netbooks, but it seems like a stretch; 13" is a well-established notebook-class size.

PhillyPhil

May 18th, 2011, 04:26 AM

Then I should sue for false advertising? Because in windows on nothing but idle, it still doesn't last the advertise speed at lowest brightness, etc.

Best Buy would just say that their test suite does minimal tests and cannot be compared to anything I do.

No idea. What did Best Buy advertise? I'm not a lawyer...

uRock

May 18th, 2011, 04:49 AM

user1397

May 18th, 2011, 05:23 AM

I will say that although netbooks may work perfectly for some people, I was largely disillusioned with my netbook experience.

I bought a dell mini 10v which had an atom proc, 1gb ram, and a 16gb ssd. At the time when I bought it, I wasn't exactly aware that netbooks were supposed to have ridiculously long battery lives, and mine had a 3 cell battery which only ran for about 2:30 hours and I thought hey that's good enough for me.

Very soon, my battery began to deteriorate which partly led to my frustration with the machine. It got to a point where the battery was impractical, and only held a charge for some 30 minutes.

This is not the point however. Even if my battery had been fine, the power or lack thereof of the netbook is what bothered me the most. I understood that a netbook is not a desktop replacement, but I used my netbook about 90% of the time as it was my only machine for a while. I mostly just used it to browse the internet, but even that was a chore. I had a minimal ubuntu setup and my system only used about 160mb of ram on boot-up, but browsing was just so aggravating. Every time I would try to load a few different tabs it would freeze for a second and things like that. It seemed to me that even though all I was doing was browsing the internet and reading email, it was too underpowered even for that.

Therefore I don't recommend netbooks anymore to people, but then again this is all personal experience and personal opinion.

walt.smith1960

May 18th, 2011, 06:04 AM

Nobody bloody listens to me. (http://promos.asus.com/US/EeePadTransformer/?gclid=CKDD86GE7qgCFchJ2godBUMIFA) = P
.............

DUCT TAPE, BABY!! :lolflag:

uRock

May 18th, 2011, 06:29 AM

I have had my netbook for more than a year now and it is still as awesome as the day I bought it. I get at least 8 hours per charge.

I did buy an Asus, not a Dell, as Dell's site claimed they sold systems with Ubuntu on them, but when I looked, they weren't being offered. I use the netbook three days a week at school, typing notes, configuring routers and switches and it gets used to log all actions of our D&D gaming. My wife also has her 17" HP, but it is too heavy to lug around and takes up too much space on an already cluttered game table.

Lucradia

May 18th, 2011, 02:14 PM

No idea. What did Best Buy advertise? I'm not a lawyer...

8 hours and 40 minutes. I get about 6 or less hours. (I believe this was changed from about 10 hours actually. I swear I saw a double digit.)

PhillyPhil

May 18th, 2011, 03:11 PM

8 hours and 40 minutes. I get about 6 or less hours. (I believe this was changed from about 10 hours actually. I swear I saw a double digit.)

Well, theres always an hour or two between the advertised life and reality, and you probably lose a bit to Ubuntu's non-powersaving drivers, so 6 hours doesn't sound like a ridiculous figure for that machine...

Lucradia

May 18th, 2011, 03:28 PM

Well, theres always an hour or two between the advertised life and reality, and you probably lose a bit to Ubuntu's non-powersaving drivers, so 6 hours doesn't sound like a ridiculous figure for that machine...

This was even on Windows with Idle >_> Not even touching the thing, lol.

rich52x

May 18th, 2011, 06:19 PM

i think tablets will die out as soon as people realise you can't replace a physical keyboard with tapping at spaces on a screen and expect the same speed/efficiency
and of course once Apple is done with them :P

aysiu

May 18th, 2011, 06:25 PM

i think tablets will die out as soon as people realise you can't replace a physical keyboard with tapping at spaces on a screen and expect the same speed/efficiency I disagree. First of all, tablets are primarily consumption (not production) devices, so the ability to type on them is of only secondary importance. Most people just surf the web and listen to music. It's the minority that are using their computers to program or for graphic design or for writing novels.

Secondly, there are plugin physical keyboards available for tablets. If tablets saturate the market enough, I can envision coffee shops having a bunch of keyboards bolted to tables that customers just plug their tablets into and begin typing on. As long as you have an ecosystem built around a product, the product can always survive.

Copper Bezel

May 18th, 2011, 06:33 PM

Gremlinzzz

May 18th, 2011, 06:55 PM

Most likely
eight-track tapes
The videocassette recorder

mips

May 18th, 2011, 06:59 PM

My bad, i meant subsaharan Africa, it was 1 AM local time when I was writing this :D

I'm still confused as internet still sucks in Africa.

PhillyPhil

May 18th, 2011, 10:57 PM

I'm pretty sure we've addressed this. Tablets with keyboards are very likely to replace netbooks. There are slidey keyboards, snap-on keyboards, separate keyboards, whatever. Tablets don't mean a lack of keyboards.

Tablets are here to stay, yes, but they aren't ever going to completely replace a different product.

As for 'tablets with keyboards', I wonder what they'd look like....hmm, perhaps a 10'' screen with a keyboard section attached. What does that sound like?

Dr. C

May 19th, 2011, 02:18 AM

Tablets are here to stay, yes, but they aren't ever going to completely replace a different product.

As for 'tablets with keyboards', I wonder what they'd look like....hmm, perhaps a 10'' screen with a keyboard section attached. What does that sound like?

Like this (http://www.alwaysinnovating.com/products/smartbook.htm). It also runs Ubuntu.

uRock

May 19th, 2011, 02:20 AM

Like this (http://www.alwaysinnovating.com/products/smartbook.htm). It also runs Ubuntu.

Eek, too many parts to get broken.

PhillyPhil

May 19th, 2011, 02:43 AM

Like this (http://www.alwaysinnovating.com/products/smartbook.htm). It also runs Ubuntu.

I'd love to have an ARM netbook (probably my next computer purchase) but the products from these guys have always been overpriced and under-powered)

I was thinking a tablet w/keyboard would probably look like this. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netbook) :P

Lucradia

May 19th, 2011, 02:55 AM

The videocassette recorder

What about miniDV?

Some news stations still use those bulky camcorders.

PhillyPhil

May 19th, 2011, 10:38 AM

This was even on Windows with Idle >_> Not even touching the thing, lol.

Missed this post...

Guess it just sucks to be you then! :P :D

More seriously, perhaps Best Buy is a bit more liberal with their exaggeration than the OEMs are, and a shaker of salt might be needed instead of a pinch...

el_koraco

May 19th, 2011, 10:42 AM

I'm still confused as internet still sucks in Africa.

Well, that was kinda the point. Dunno what the deal in SA is today, but a couple of years ago i read a story about a company that made an experiment pitting a carrier pigeon against the national ISP. They tied a 4 (not sure about the size) GB mem stick on the pigeon, and let it fly to a city a couple of hundred miles away, and at the same time started an online file transfer with the same data. The bird won by like an hour.

Copper Bezel

May 19th, 2011, 11:07 AM

Always Innovating's Touchbook is an old design that was a mess when it was released and has only become more fidgety and messy. There are several designs by Asus, HP, and Samsung that have a great deal more promise.

Nyromith

May 19th, 2011, 11:58 AM

I hope nothing major is going to disappear. I really like netbooks (as a computer science student, they help me a lot), and desktops much more. Innovation is good, but only when it increases diversity, and not by replacing other good and helpful products.

As for CDs, maybe their time on earth approaches its end. I think that a BIOS-level support for ISOs on flash-drives can solve the OS CDs issues. For now, from my experience booting from a flash USB is still a PITA most of the times.

walt.smith1960

May 19th, 2011, 01:04 PM

Tablets are here to stay, yes, but they aren't ever going to completely replace a different product.

As for 'tablets with keyboards', I wonder what they'd look like....hmm, perhaps a 10'' screen with a keyboard section attached. What does that sound like?

Right, but you can take the tablet out of the keyboard/case if you don't need it so you're carrying just the tablet, not the whole assembly. Not so easy to do with a netbook.

Rasa1111

May 19th, 2011, 01:30 PM

No way.
I only slightly agree with the portable GPS and the netbooks.
That 'article' is whack. lol

Gremlinzzz

May 19th, 2011, 01:55 PM

What about miniDV?

Some news stations still use those bulky camcorders.

MiniDV is one of three common digital formats used in sound and picture recording. Using digital technology, MiniDV captures video and audio on high-density cassette tapes. This format is very popular,
Stand corrected ,it looks like it will stay.
but CD,s and DVD,s will meet the same fate as eight-track tapes

PhillyPhil

May 19th, 2011, 03:36 PM

Right, but you can take the tablet out of the keyboard/case if you don't need it so you're carrying just the tablet, not the whole assembly. Not so easy to do with a netbook.

Yeah, but then you've lost your ''with a keyboard'', which was the whole point...

Copper Bezel

May 19th, 2011, 03:47 PM

Really not. This is not a new concept. Tablet computers have always had the option of making the keyboard go away. It's only the new tablet rush (properly called slates) that happens to not include keyboards. Removable keyboard does both; you have the iPad convenience (touch interface, easy switching to portrait format, light weight, ease in passing the device over to another user when talking out a design or showing off your photos) and a similarly sized device in your bag to snap on when you're switching to a more traditionally desktoppy task.

walt.smith1960

May 21st, 2011, 02:18 PM

Yeah, but then you've lost your ''with a keyboard'', which was the whole point...

unless you need a keyboard sometimes and sometimes not. I'm thinking of a product called an "electronic flight bag". You don't need a separate keyboard a lot of the time-a virtual keyboard along with a touch screen interface is fine. Sometimes though having a physical keyboard is much more pleasant, accurate and faster.

Gremlinzzz

May 21st, 2011, 07:57 PM

Plastic will be replaced with graphene.
graphene is amazing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/click_online/9491789.stm

Gremlinzzz

May 23rd, 2011, 07:17 PM

It appears that e-book readers are going to be a good investment!
CLEARWATER, Fla. - Heavy backpacks piled high with textbooks are a thing of the past. This year, students at Clearwater High School will trade in their textbooks for slices of technology.
The school is issuing Kindle e-books readers to more than 2,150 students on Thursday.
http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_north_pinellas/clearwater/clearwater-high-school-to-hand-out-kindle-e-book-readers-rather-than-textbooks-to-students
Odds are other schools will follow.:D

itguy1985

May 23rd, 2011, 08:05 PM

Superkoop

May 23rd, 2011, 08:22 PM

1. Smartphone data plans are far too expensive currently for them to replace GPS systems currently. Unless super wi-fi starts to make some really quick leaps and bounds, but I don't see this happening in the next 5 years... 10 years probably, but then I don't see it being smart phones, I see it being in-car computers in 15 years.

2. I don't see dvds/cds going extinct anytime soon, though I would love for them to go out! However, I don't see HS internet replacing it, it's too darn expensive! Anyways, not everyone has a way to connect their computer to their TV, and people watch movies on their huge TV not their tiny computers usually. I actually want to see SD cards replace discs, as discs are too easy to scratch and damage. http://www.sdcard.org/developers/tech/sdxc

3. I don't see this happening for another 10 years, it's too expensive to a norm for people, and cellular prices aren't going down, they are going up.

4. All of these are fad devices, in five years it will be something else entirely.

5. I don't think so, I think current e-readers will evolve into something else, but they will still be e-readers primarily.

This is all just people hoping for change because it's exciting in the technology world. But realistically, these changes don't happen like this. Some of these are very expensive changes within just five years, and prices aren't going to drop that much to be affordable in five years.

Macskeeball

May 24th, 2011, 01:37 AM

2. I don't see dvds/cds going extinct anytime soon, though I would love for them to go out! However, I don't see HS internet replacing it, it's too darn expensive!
For music CDs, it has been happening for years with music download services like iTunes and Amazon MP3, as well as streaming services like Pandora, Spotify, Rdio, Amazon Cloud, etc. For software CDs, there's the Ubuntu Software Center and the Mac app store. Windows 8 will have an app store. Mobile OSes obviously have app stores. Even for large software like Windows and Linux distros are available for downloads. Apple doesn't provide a downloadable version of OS X, but the MacBook Airs come with it on a flash drive. For writable storage discs, there are flash drives and, as you said, flash memory cards, as well as file transfer over the Internet or a local network.

For video DVDs, Netflix streaming is now the largest source (http://www.sandvine.com/news/pr_detail.asp?ID=312) of Internet traffic in North America, accounting for 29.7% of all peak downstream traffic. Of course, a potential problem with that is the data caps being set by ISPs such as AT&T and Comcast.

Anyways, not everyone has a way to connect their computer to their TV, and people watch movies on their huge TV not their tiny computers usually.
Computers are not required. There are set top boxes like Roku (http://www.roku.com), Apple TV (http://www.apple.com/appletv/), Boxee (http://www.boxee.tv/buy), and others. Also, all three game consoles and many networked Blu-ray players support Netflix. There are even Internet connected TVs with dedicated Netflix buttons on the remote. Netflix has done a good job of porting their streaming service to a lot of different devices that are not computers. And often Netflix isn't the only streaming video service available on these devices.

johnnybgoode83

May 24th, 2011, 01:54 AM

I have never understood the appeal of e-book readers. Call be old fashioned but when I read a book I want to read an actual book. It is more enjoyable to read a paper book than a machine in my opinion.

Netbooks, I cannot see going extinct as many users need a proper keyboard over a touch screen one of tablets and I cannot see that changing ant time soon.

I hope CD/DVD does not go extinct as I still like to burn CDs for the car and I always will.

Wireless routers I do not think are going extinct any time soon as other technologies for providing the service are too expensive and in most cases years off being anywhere near as reliable.

Portable navigation systems I am not sure about. I won't be giving up my TomTom any time soon.

Gremlinzzz

May 24th, 2011, 01:59 AM

The technology of video recording is not very old, so a look at the history of audio recording may help us to predict the life span of the DVD medium. Edison invented the cylinder phonograph in 1877. In spite of having a limited recording capacity of two minutes, cylinders sold briskly and eventually peaked in popularity around 1905. The next evolutionary step was the disc Victrolas. By 1915, 37 years after the birth of the cylinder the 78 rpm record, with about 3 minutes of recording time per side, dominated the market. It was 18 years before the 78 gave way to the 33 1/3 rpm LP, with potential playing times of about 30 minutes per side. Philips introduced the Compact Cassette in 1962, 30 years after the LP. Most of you remember the launch of the Compact Disc (CD) in 1983, which was 20 years after the cassette. In evaluating this brief history of audio recording, we can see that the average life span of an audio recording medium is about 26 years.

The DVD came out in 1997 and if it lasts 26 years, some new medium will replace it in 2023. But it is already looking like DVD may not be around that long. For example, there are nearly a dozen solid-state flash memory formats. Now that their capacities are reaching the GB phase, video is a definite possibility. Of course gigabyte flash memory cards are still quite expensive, relative to the DVD, so it is unlikely that we will distribute video on this format for $20 any time soon. Maybe we could rent movies on reusable cards some day.

That idea may be dead in the water, however, considering you can download movies over a broadband connection today. The speeds aren't quite there for full-length movies and most people reasonably don't want to watch movies on their computers, but it is just fine for audio. More than that, electronic distribution of digital audio over the Internet has seriously cut into the sale of CDs. And that's not just from piracy: the success of iTunes and other online retailers proves that people are willing, nay eager, to pay for downloading music. And there are even services you can subscribe to for a monthly fee (about $10) that will let you listen to any song you want, in a high quality format, at the click of a mouse. Why do you need to even own a copy of a song, whether on a disc or on your hard drive, if you can listen to anything you want, any time you want? When we're jogging, driving or otherwise not connected to the Internet, we'll need a different media of course, but that is just a technical issue.

Technology is changing at a break-neck pace. I don't think that DVD is going to evaporate completely, any more than I think CDs are doomed. There are still hundreds of millions of disc players in homes and cars around the nation. Still, after considering the history of audio, somehow, I can't imagine that we'll stay with the DVD for too much longer. We may be at the end of the period where any one physical medium dominates the market. Guess I'm wrong again!