Will Canonical Drop Ubuntu If It Doesn't Become Profitable?

[Throne777]

Given that Ubuntu still isn't making a profit, I'm curious as to how long Canonical will support it for?
If it doesn't start to become profitable in a few years (how long is too long for a huge investment which isn't giving you any returns?), will support drop, or will they just keep dragging Ubuntu along (which seems an odd business strategy)?
Or are Canonical generally silent (or vague) on all this?

I guess part of this is motivated by a worry; Ubuntu is my favourite operating system of all time, so the thought of it eventually disappearing off the face of the Earth is an unnerving (granted, it's hardly going to vanish in the next year or so, but still).

A related point: Ubuntu took the linux community by force. It made a computer nerd's choice of OS into an accessible system for all. I can't imagine another distro is going to have quite that level of impact anytime soon. So if a linux distro as successful (in one sense of the word) as Ubuntu fails to turn a profit, what will that mean for corporate backing of open source projects in general?

[Irihapeti]

I guess you'd have to ask Mark Shuttleworth.

[wojox]

I believe once they get some issues hammered out they may pull a RHEL/Fedora on us. I don't blame them, I would.

Red Hat is on track to do one billion this year.

[NormanFLinux]

Ubuntu will always be free to use. Canonical supports it by selling support services to governments and corporations.

Neither Canonical and Ubuntu are going anywhere. After seven years, they're still going strong and remain #1 on the Distrowatch chart.

[Throne777]

Canonical supports it by selling support services to governments and corporations.


I know that, but from what I have gathered (Mark Shuttleworth said it in an interview with OMGUbuntu (http://www.omgubuntu.co.uk/2011/05/mark-shuttleworth-talks-windicators-changes-for-unity-in-oneiric-and-whole-lot-more/)), it's not pulling in enough money.

[NormanFLinux]

Canonical can charge for premium software. They can sell it through their online store - like the approach Lindows took with their Click N Run store.

Software that has extra or special features over the free version could be sold there and as Bill Gates can tell you, the real money is found in selling software!

[ikt]

Given that Ubuntu still isn't making a profit, I'm curious as to how long Canonical will support it for?


15:44 jcastro QUESTION: is Ubuntu profitable yet? If not, any ideas on when it will be?
15:45 sabdfl no, and while we have projections which are grounds for confidence, there are also reasons to continue to push the investment faster than it would grow organically
15:45 sabdfl next

[3rdalbum]

Without Ubuntu, Canonical has no way of making any money.

With Ubuntu, they have the chance.

[liam.lah]

Even if Canonical were to tank, or even drop ubuntu, most of it could be picked up by the community and continue it's existence.

[NCLI]

I recall seeing a graph not so long ago that the number of Ubuntu installs on web servers is skyrocketing, going way faster than Red Hat or any of the other big enterprise distros. It's still small, but it's definitely growing fast.

[Johnsie]

I think we will know the answer to this shortly after 11.10 is released. I don't think Canonical will go away, but it will probably shrink once the user base moves on to another distro

[BigSilly]

I think we will know the answer to this shortly after 11.10 is released. I don't think Canonical will go away, but it will probably shrink once the user base moves on to another distro

I just don't see that happening. In spite of what some users here may think, Ubuntu is still gathering pace and gaining new users, and Unity will be pivotal for that. There'll be many who don't like the changes and move on, but there'll also be many more new users too.

[grahammechanical]

I would say that Ubuntu is not supposed to be profitable but Canonical needs to be. The Ubuntu project would not be what it is today without (1) financial support from Canonical and (2) the hard work of many unpaid volunteers.

Mark Shuttleworth has promised that where they can identify that a particular program is generating revenue for Canonical, then the developers of that program will get a share of the money coming in.

Here is the quote:


So we have consistently had the view that revenue we can attribute to a particular upstream should create a revenue share for that upstream. We support Mozilla in this way, for example. The numbers are not vast, but nor are they insubstantial, and while we are not obliged to do so, we do so happily. Those are the principles, the policy is straightforward: Canonical seeks to earn revenue from services delivered to Ubuntu, and we will share a portion of that revenue with relevant projects who help make that possible. Our interests, and those of the projects, should be aligned to the greatest extent possible.
Note these other two quotes:


The business model which justifies this investment, and which we hope will ultimately sustain that effort for the desktop without dependence on me, is that fee-generating services which are optional for users provide revenue to Canonical. This enables us to make the desktop available in a high quality, fully maintained form, without any royalties or license fees. By contrast, every other commercial Linux desktop is a licensed product – you can’t legally use it for free, the terms for binaries are similar to those for Windows or the MacOS. They’re entitled to do it their way, we think it’s good in the world that we choose to do it our way too.
I think our model gives projects a nice, clear roadmap: build awesome stuff, partner with Canonical and be confident you will share in the success of Ubuntu. This is the model which catalysed the founding of Ubuntu, seven years ago, this is what we’re here to do: make free software available freely, in the best quality, to the widest audience we can. That’s an opportunity for every project that cares about how many people get to use their stuff, and under what terms.Here is the link:


http://www.markshuttleworth.com/


By coincidence I was directed to this page just last night from the website of the Ubuntu User magazine.


Regards.

P.S. So, come on you lot. Start paying for those music downloads.

[mr_luksom]

Of course Canonical will drop Ubuntu if it fails to make money.

Canonical is a business, and while Mark Shuttleworth is no heartless fund manager, he will run out of money eventually.

All the more reason to do our bit. Reporting and/or triaging bugs, helping individual users in the forums, or helping the dev teams allows Canonical to focus its resources on business clientele who will pay currency for (hopefully) infrequent service.

[aguafina]

I just don't see that happening. In spite of what some users here may think, Ubuntu is still gathering pace and gaining new users, and Unity will be pivotal for that. There'll be many who don't like the changes and move on, but there'll also be many more new users too.


That is a pretty big statement to make without evidence, and even if Ubuntu is gaining new users it could be still falling behind other systems as they gain more users per average.

[Not unique]

Mark shuttleworth admitted that Ubuntu/Canonical are not turning a profit right now but showed no signs of stopping any time soon, He's a smart man and knows it could be a waiting game but obviously has some plans laid out for future money making (selling software and support to governments etc.) so what does that say?
P.S. I love the idea of pay for software in the software centre as hopefully it will lead to more pro and commercial stuff whilst still having the large voice of good open source software for free.

[m4tic]

Since I'm not getting paid, I don't care.