Could Linux power a computer for 20 years?

[linuxforartists]

There's a bunch fun techie interviews over at UsesThis.com. One that particularly caught my eye was an interview with Mark Pilgrim (http://mark.pilgrim.usesthis.com/), a developer advocate at Google. It's obvious from the start he's a fan of open source.

This statement stood out:


I've had my current desktop for a little over two years. I want to continue using it for another 20. I mean that literally: this computer, this keyboard, this mouse, these three monitors. 20 years. There's no technical reason the hardware can't last that long, so it's a matter of whether there will be useful software to run on it.

What do you guys think of this experiment? Which Linux distro would be most likely to pass "The 20-year Test"? Why?

[Spice Weasel]

Since it can for 10 years, I don't see why it couldn't for 20:

http://www.bash.org/?741630 ;)

[beew]

And the point of that would be? A 20 year old computer would be super out of date and you would have a very hard time finding maintenance and use for it even if you can keep it running.

[TriBlox6432]

Yes. Just keep your current OS on it, and take very very good care of it. It will still run in 20 years . . .

But if you meant, in twenty years, using an up-to-date OS, probably not. I mean, 20 years from now we'll be having 64TB of RAM. :p

[wyliecoyoteuk]

My wife's 1.7Ghz P4 PC is 8 years old and runs Ubuntu 10.10 perfectly well.
Our netbooks are more recent , but both have 1.6GHz Atom processors, and yes, run Ubuntu 10.10 perfectly well.
In fact, as a technology writer, I am ashamed to admit that my youngest PC is just reaching its 4th birthday, and I don't feel any real need to upgrade it.

The path forward is to better efficiency, not more resources.

[lykwydchykyn]

20 years is a stretch, but who says the next 20 years will progress like the last 20?

I've used Debian Squeeze on Pentium 2 computers (hardware dating from ~1998 ), and it was relatively usable, provided you had a bit of patience and a relatively limited scope of uses. We could stream shoutcast radio, type text, play some (non-3d) games, and (sluggishly) browse the web, though not all at the same time ;).

13 years isn't 20, but it's not bad...

[Hur Dur]

Do you mean 20 years with no shutdowns? That may be a stretch, Linux isn't that stable. Although, if any distro can last that long, I'm going to say it would be Slackware. Although, I wouldn't doubt that NetBSD or FreeBSD could go 20 years non-stop on a computer.

[walt.smith1960]

Yes. Just keep your current OS on it, and take very very good care of it. It will still run in 20 years . . .

But if you meant, in twenty years, using an up-to-date OS, probably not. I mean, 20 years from now we'll be having 64TB of RAM. :p

And certain O.S.s will need 70% of that 64TB to echo the letters C-A-T to a monochrome display :P :lolflag:

[Dustin2128]

Lot of variables. What is the computer doing? I'm wanting to say yes, especially if it's a more stable distro like slack or debian. Of course, that all depends on hardware, can the fans handle cooling a computer that's never off? Is the hardware under plenty of stress?

[drsmooth]

I'm already at 11 years with my laptop running 9.04 and XP dual boot. Both were fresh installs XP is slow as hell. 9.04 runs great.

[Spice Weasel]

Lot of variables. What is the computer doing? I'm wanting to say yes, especially if it's a more stable distro like slack or debian. Of course, that all depends on hardware, can the fans handle cooling a computer that's never off? Is the hardware under plenty of stress?

The fans could be a problem since the motors would definitely not last that long. You'd need the computer to be in a cool room to swap the fans without it overheating.

[Dustin2128]

The fans could be a problem since the motors would definitely not last that long. You'd need the computer to be in a cool room to swap the fans without it overheating.
Yeah, but then again, liquid cooling would probably be the best solution- preferably with a cryogenic substance like liquid nitrogen. Underclocking all the components would probably be for the best, too.

[matt_symes]

Would the hard drive last that long ?

I don't think so.

[walt.smith1960]

Would the hard drive last that long ?

I don't think so.

Hot swappable RAID?

[Spice Weasel]

Would the hard drive last that long ?

I don't think so.

I think a SSD would.

[matt_symes]

Hot swappable RAID?.

Interesting idea but then is that the original PC the quote from the OP suggested ?


I think a SSD would.

What's the lifetime of SSD ? I have no idea.

[Dustin2128]

I think a SSD would.
I disagree- flash memory has a write/erase limit. If you used some other type of memory, it'd probably last.

[Spice Weasel]

Lower RPM drives last longer, correct? Sacrifice speed for stability, but I'm still not sure if it would last as long as a SSD. Hot swappable RAID sounds like the best option.

E: I forgot about copy-to-RAM distros, would you even need a hard drive?

[matt_symes]

Lower RPM drives last longer, correct? Sacrifice speed for stability, but I'm still not sure if it would last as long as a SSD.

For the motor yes, but it's not only the motor that can deteriorate. And even then 20 years for a motor ? I thought most new ones only had a maximum number of spin ups/downs before failure was expected.


Hot swappable RAID sounds like the best option.

Not the original hardware



E: I forgot about copy-to-RAM distros, would you even need a hard drive?

The best idea yet. No hard drive.

Next what about the power supply ? Most have a fan in there. Power failures/fluctuations etc ? Stress on the components.

Will a UPS help ?

[Dustin2128]

Will a UPS help ?
Not enough for me, we're installing a nuclear battery!

[matt_symes]

Not enough for me, we're installing a nuclear battery! :popcorn:

I want one. :)

[Dustin2128]

:popcorn:

I want one. :)
Wander around a russian junkyard for a few minutes with a geiger counter, that's how I got mine.

[Timmer1240]

Right now Im running Linux Mint Debian its a rolling distro so Im gonna see how long it rolls I doubt 20 years though!

[handy]

I'd change the question to "Could a computer power Linux for 20 years?"

[ssam]

seen as 20 year uptime is the interesting interpretation for this:

you'd want ECC RAM, otherwise i 1 bit error could crash the machine.

no network connection, for security.

no GUI, i think X driver crashes are probably one of the big causes of hard lockups.

UPS.

somewhere with a low seismic activity.

with all that uptimes of years should be easy.

[handy]

You would also need a redundant PSU, & they should be hot-swappable.

Still the motherboard & any other critical circuitry would have to hold up for that period of time. I wouldn't want to bet my life on it. I'd buy the very expensive server motherboard Super Micro or some such.

[Sporkman]

http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=1449084

[andrew.46]

Although, if any distro can last that long, I'm going to say it would be Slackware.

A little to the side of this discussion is Slackware on the International Space Station:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/6699887/Linux-on-the-International-Space-Station

Andrew

[matt_symes]

A little to the side of this discussion is Slackware on the International Space Station:

But the toilets on the space station broke down ;)

[steveneddy]

My Core 2 Duo laptop is five years old - and I still use an old PIII 933 mhz and 512 mb RAM as a server.

20 years? I don't see an issue.

This five year old laptop is much faster than any desktop I use at work running either 7 or XP.

[andrew.46]

But the toilets on the space station broke down ;)

Obviously controlled by Windows.....

[sixstorm]

That's pretty nuts to keep a computer for that long. I know that I couldn't do it since I'm a "power user" (IT career wouldn't let me use an old PC lol). However, my current custom PC has parts almost 4.5 years old. That's almost 25% of that goal. :P

[handy]

My IPCop firewall/router is a PIII 700 from about 1999. I got it from the tip, & it was obviously a business machine before hand, though it was most likely doing 5 day working weeks & got to sleep at night like normal people do.

Since I've owned it, it has been running 24/7 ($53-/year electricity at 19.2 cents/kw) for getting close to 2.5 years now.

In that period its 8GB HDD failed, so it now has a comparatively monstrous used 20GB drive in there doing the job.

I've drowned the PSU fan in oil, to quieten it down & extend its life, apart from those two problems nothing else at this stage has gone wrong.

I have another Athlon 700 (1999), which is setup to take over the job when the PIII eventually fails.

If your motherboard makes it for 20 years of 24/7 you have been lucky. The fans will need replacing as will everything else that does actually spend time spinning for a reasonable proportion of that time.

[Khakilang]

I am using Puppy Linux on a Pentium 4 running at 1.5GHz which I think is more than 8 years old. Provided the motherboard doesn't burn out on me it could go for another 10 years.

[jerenept]

Do you mean 20 years with no shutdowns? That may be a stretch, Linux isn't that stable. Although, if any distro can last that long, I'm going to say it would be Slackware. Although, I wouldn't doubt that NetBSD or FreeBSD could go 20 years non-stop on a computer.

FreeNAS ftw.

[jerenept]

Since it can for 10 years, I don't see why it couldn't for 20:

http://www.bash.org/?741630 ;)


<matt____> hey guys is there a way to patch an older redhat server??
<matt____> Linux devcvs 2.2.16-22 #1 Tue Aug 22 16:49:06 EDT 2000 i686 unknown
<Evolution> holy hell
<Evolution> 2.2.16?
<Evolution> just out of curiosity, what's the uptime on that antique?
<matt____> devnu11:18am up 2287 days, 2:52, 25 users, load average: 1.76, 1.26, 0.70
<Zathrus> gods
holy hell indeed.

[handy]

FreeNAS ftw.

I've run the wondrous FreeBSD based FreeNAS for a couple of years in the past with little trouble.

As I see it, it is not the software/OS that is the weak link in regards to system fallibility over time that has been presented as the prime question of this thread.

[barbedsaber]

2287 days, 2:52,

yeah, that's crazy. I tip my hat to that mysterious person.

On another note, are we asking if a computer would be usable without upgrading for 20 years?
or if a computer could run non stop 24/7 for 20 years.

I usually shut down most nights (purely because I want this laptop to last a long time)

they're quite different questions.

Also, what upgrades are allowed? for instance, if I change a fan, is it the same computer, because it's not using all the original parts.

If I have a desktop, and over many years I replace the CPU, RAM, HDD, video card, at what point does it become NOT the same computer?


This reminds me of a philosophy question I did in year 11.


"My friend has a wooden boat. Every day, he removes one plank of wood from his boat, and replaces it with a fresh plank of wood. He does this for many years, until he has replaced every plank of wood from his boat. I have been collecting the planks of old wood, and reassembling them to make a boat of my own. I used all of his planks of wood, and made a boat. Which is the original boat?"

http://xkcd.com/659/

anyway, I think I've said enough

[Spice Weasel]

On another note, are we asking if a computer would be usable without upgrading for 20 years?
or if a computer could run non stop 24/7 for 20 years.


... I don't even know anymore. I was discussing if it could run 24/7 for 20 years.

[handy]

... I don't even know anymore. I was discussing if it could run 24/7 for 20 years.

It would need redundant everything to do that. So you might as well call it a cluster where as long as the machine can keep on doing what ever its task is it is still whittling down the 20 year target.

If I had to have a machine last for 20 years 24/7, I'd be looking at a cluster solution for any chance of success.

You could use a number of PS3's, when one fails just replace it with a pre-prepared replacement whilst the others keep on ticking away. :)

If you were serious about the 24/7 for 20 years, you'd have to have a good sized UPS (quite expensive) & a backup for when the mains power fails every now & then. (Also quite expensive.)

You could set up your cluster to fold at home & work at setting all kinds of records over the 20 year life span of the system.

Though it would be better if the system could find a way to pay for itself & its upkeep.

[markp1989]

what about replacing the batteries in the UPS? dont think they can last 20 years.

for storage im thinking a (read only) SSD with an OS that copies its self to ram, so the SSD is off pretty much all the time except the initial boot

you would have to have some redundant cooling, I would say water cooling is out as they normally have to be drained and refilled every 6months or so.

would need some acceptable dust filers on the intake fans so you can clean them without having to move the fans etc

[handy]

You'd have to have system with redundant UPS. As I said previously, everything would have to have a backup.

Everything fails, even radioactivity, given enough time.

[chessnerd]

My family bought our first computer 14 years ago, way back in early 1997. It's specs were (and still are):

Gateway 2000 P5-200
200 MHz Pentium I
32 MB RAM
4 GB HDD

Nowadays, that is nothing. I've tried to think of something I can use the system for and every time I draw a blank. It can't browse the web, unless you were to limit yourself to only simple sites like Wikipedia. Even Gmail probably couldn't work unless you used its basic HTML mode.

I could type of documents in AbiWord, but Open/LibreOffice would be out of the question. It could play music, but with just 4 GB of hard drive space, it couldn't hold more than a few hundred MP3 files. My MP3 player and flash drive each have 4 times that much capacity.

Now, if I upgraded the RAM to the maximum (128 MB) then I could at least flirt with the idea of browsing most modern websites, but YouTube and online video in any form would still be out of the question.

20 years is a long time for tech. While I'm starting to see software bloat rates slowing down to a certain degree, it still seems like a stretch to imagine a modern, even Linux-based, OS running on 20 year old hardware.

That said, if any OS could run on a system for 20 years and have the experience down the road still be pleasant, Linux is it.

[Spice Weasel]

Nowadays, that is nothing. I've tried to think of something I can use the system for and every time I draw a blank. It can't browse the web, unless you were to limit yourself to only simple sites like Wikipedia. Even Gmail probably couldn't work unless you used its basic HTML mode.

How about a torrent slave (http://kmandla.wordpress.com/2009/01/23/case-in-point-rtorrent-slave-at-100mhz-16mb-810mb/)? There's lots of uses for old PCs to be found on KMandla's blog.

[jerenept]

My family bought our first computer 14 years ago, way back in early 1997. It's specs were (and still are):

Gateway 2000 P5-200
200 MHz Pentium I
32 MB RAM
4 GB HDD

Nowadays, that is nothing. I've tried to think of something I can use the system for and every time I draw a blank. It can't browse the web, unless you were to limit yourself to only simple sites like Wikipedia. Even Gmail probably couldn't work unless you used its basic HTML mode.

I could type of documents in AbiWord, but Open/LibreOffice would be out of the question. It could play music, but with just 4 GB of hard drive space, it couldn't hold more than a few hundred MP3 files. My MP3 player and flash drive each have 4 times that much capacity.

Now, if I upgraded the RAM to the maximum (128 MB) then I could at least flirt with the idea of browsing most modern websites, but YouTube and online video in any form would still be out of the question.

20 years is a long time for tech. While I'm starting to see software bloat rates slowing down to a certain degree, it still seems like a stretch to imagine a modern, even Linux-based, OS running on 20 year old hardware.

I would get a couple big harddisks, a 100TX network card, and run FreeNAS. It'd make a pretty cool NAS (and hobby project when you're bored)

[handy]

My family bought our first computer 14 years ago, way back in early 1997. It's specs were (and still are):

Gateway 2000 P5-200
200 MHz Pentium I
32 MB RAM
4 GB HDD

Nowadays, that is nothing. I've tried to think of something I can use the system for and every time I draw a blank.
...

With the RAM maxed out it would make a fine IPCop firewall/router. With adsl modem/routers we don't really need the firewall, but putting a modem/router into bridged mode which bypasses the inbuilt router & using the IPCop as your (firewall)/router you can pick up a noticeable speed increase of data throughput on the web. As the modem/routers that we buy are basically all Windows centric, & therefore don't handle IP packets as well as Linux & others systems do.

Plus it is fun to create the IPCop system, & quite quick too if you know what you are doing. I didn't but I do now.

After it is set up you can take screenshots of all of your browser based client config pages & put them somewhere safe. So if you ever have to set it up again you have a great reference.

I measured the power that my PIII 700 uses, over a period of a week or so & at 19.2 cents (Oz) per kW, it came out to $53/year. Your machine would probably be a bit less than that.

[edit:] I found this page (& old thread) which can give a good overview of my usage of IPCop:

http://ubuntuforums.org/showpost.php?p=6303994&postcount=29

[themarker0]

I had my last for 6, hdd died... Usually they do after 6.

[handy]

I had my last for 6, hdd died... Usually they do after 6.

After 6 what?

[themarker0]

After 6 what?

Years.

[handy]

It depends on the drive technology; how well they were made (as there have been some dogs out there, even from IBM, not just India), & what type of usage the drives get.

I think it is fair to say that most drives spend majority of their lives idling with their heads parked. Drives that are constantly reading & writing should by logic, be expected to fail sooner.

I have an 11 year old drive (20GB Seagate) that I put to use in a 24/7 machine. I know the drive as I installed it new in a machine that I built for my father in 1999. Dad didn't have it running 24/7, though his machine would have often run seven days a week for some hours 4 or 5 hours a day.

I have some other drives from the last century; a 2GB (that is used occasionally as it has Haiku on it); a 2.5GB & 4.3GB that are drives waiting for most likely a specialised job (FreeNAS, IPCop, Race Management System of slot car track) in old machines.

There are others: an 8GB from Jan 2000; a 13GB from mid 2003, with WinXP on it that hasn't been used since late 2004 :); a couple of WD 36GB Raptors (fast & noisy) that are heading for 7.5 years old; a Maxtor 160GB 6.5 years old; a WD 80GB 7.5 years; an 80GB IBM "Deathstar" (really called Deskstar but many had a problem, I've previously lost 2 beyond recovery) from 2002.

Most of the above doesn't prove much except that different usages & quality of construction/technology has a marked effect on life expectancy.

It also gave me a chance to look at most of the older drives I've got here, though I hadn't bothered mentioning the those made since 2007, & don't know how old the 20GB drives are in the 2 Compaq PIII's in the shed, probably 10 years old I guess.

I should be able to keep drives up to the old machines for a while anyway. :)

[blueturtl]

Missing the point much?

The guy wants to run the rig he's now using 20 years from now, but with modern software. I think we can safely assume if he needs to do maintenance such as swap a PSU, HDD or a motherboard battery he's allowed to do that. If he has quality parts, he might not have to swap anything. My first 40 MiB HDD still works.

The more pressing question is, how the software will evolve from where it is now. Comparing a system from 20 years ago to one today is not a very good example, because a lot of the things we do today were not possible on that hardware in the first place. That is, a Pentium 60 MHz was not really used to play MP3s. People didn't listen to MP3s back then. Nor did many really browse the web either.

However everything that was/is possible on hardware the day it ships, should technically be doable still after 20 years pass, using newer software on said hardware. There's no reason any functionality should be lost, unless the system is badly designed.

I agree with a former post; the question should be 'can a computer power Linux after 20 years?'

[handy]

The computer in the future will probably just need to be able to run the browser through which most everything else runs.

Perhaps at that point there won't really be an operating system as we think of it, just a browser like dumb terminal through which everything else manifests.

Under those circumstances it would come down to just what legacy equipment is supported.

Who knows how the DRM wars will have gone by then. Perhaps if your machine isn't registered you can't access the net. So you would have to become a part of a hidden p2p sub-net...

The further into the future you try to see the thinner realities branches become. ;)

[sanderella]

I have an old Compaq Armada 7800 running Windows 98 happily. So that's 13 years old. It never goes online and has a CAD program for my knitting machine. :KS and, no it doesn't crash!