Can Open Source Defeat Microsoft?

[browndog]

This is the question that seems to be at the forefront of every operating system discussion in the computer world these days...does open source have a chance of defeating Microsoft? I suppose it depends on how you define "defeat". If defeat means utterly thrashing Microsoft until it goes out of business...hmmmm...that probably won't happen. However, if defeat means becoming the dominant market player and holding a larger market share than MS, then I think the Linux wave is rising and everyone had better catch it. Check out the story and let us know what you think.

http://www.sci-tech-today.com/story.xhtml?story_id=010001470KT4

[aysiu]

Microsoft will stay on top as long as it can, but it is a company and can go bankrupt or be defeated.

Open source is not a company and, thus, cannot be defeated. Canonical could go out of business. Red Hat could go out of business. Novell could. Mozilla could. But open source cannot die.

[rado_london]

I dont think this will happen until microsoft make bad marteking stuff which is nearly imposible. But I like that ubuntu and linux are not with 50% usage. I am the strangest guy around using something exotic. It is funny. If ubuntu grows I dont want to see and commercilising of it.

Good luck

[Virogenesis]

Open source can't be brought so it is pretty much Microsoft's biggest enermy.
No one owns the rights a piece of open source software.

[openmind]

If they haven't gone out of business by now after some of the stuff they've done, chances are they never will.

People aren't getting any smarter.

[htinn]

I think Google is more of a threat to them right now. Google is changing the way people use computers, especially for doing business.

[aysiu]

Right now, Google is producing Goobuntu for internal use only, but if they ever released it to the public, it would be a serious threat to Windows--Google has name recognition. Canonical does not.

[IYY]

Microsoft is afraid of Google. It's easy to tell, because whenever MS is afraid, it starts stealing the opponent's ideas. We've been seeing OS X-like features being added to Vista, and now MS is really focusing on their search engine (MSN), and their new ad service.

[Bloch]

With Vista and beyond Microsoft looks to be heading to capture the high-end digital entertainment market. Some people will be using the operating system purely for their video and audio entertainment, with no idea of files and directories. Already XP has gone far in that direction. This is user-friendliness of a sort, but not the kind needed by website maintainers, students, etc.

So linux will continue to rise in popularity among people who need to use a computer as a computer, and in schools, colleges, and offices. In non-Western countries, China, India, Brazil etc will choose to use linux for consumer desktops. A part of the reason is the price - in poorer countries there is a big difference between $300 and $350. Another part is vague anti-Americanism / anti-capitalism. Regional varieties of linux will have a strong appeal to people, who will see it as "their" operating system, a distro perfected in their country by their own developers. The more MS tries to squeeze down on bootleg copies of its operating system, the more they will move. Only wealthy people with credit cards (who can afford streaming content, broadband, iTunes etc) will use MS windows.

In western countries linux will not even attempt to compete with MS in the entertainmen/games area. It will settle into its roll, but never gain the mass popularity it gains in China, Brazil, etc.
In the future "Do you know how to use a computer?" will mean "Do you know how to use linux?"

That's my view. A lot of it is happening at the moment anyway.

[blastus]

The only way to *defeat* Microsoft is to hit it as its core; that is Windows. And the only way to do that is go after the OEMs. Without the OEMs, Microsoft would not be where it is at today.

[DigitalDuality]

Microsoft will stay on top as long as it can, but it is a company and can go bankrupt or be defeated.

Open source is not a company and, thus, cannot be defeated. Canonical could go out of business. Red Hat could go out of business. Novell could. Mozilla could. But open source cannot die.
sure it can.

make it illegal.

[Virogenesis]

sure it can.

make it illegal.
that wouldn't work due to the governments interest in opensource.
No gov would dare do that and the way to hit Microsoft is in the business and School sector as soon as schools choose linux over windows you'll start to see more linux oerms.

[Stormy Eyes]

sure it can.

make it illegal.

Prohibition has been tried in the United States, with alcohol. All Prohibition did was make killers like Al Capone rich and famous. People who wanted to drink, continued to do so, and treated the government and its servants with richly deserved contempt. The same thing will happen if you try to ban open source; you'll just drive it underground.

[unbuntu]

While Microsoft has had some 20 years to make Office what it is today, most industry analysts say that new open-source contenders, such as OpenOffice, measure up reasonably well against Redmond's suite.
Well...this first sentence from that article doesn't look infallable to me already. It's not like openoffice is developed in a parallel universe other than ours. For sure it borrows ideas from MS office, and quite arguably, in the course of these 20 years MS office has defined or shaped the office software.

I'm not a MS fan boy, but I don't think open source will take over MS in the short run. There are plenty of people who are more than happy to pay and just techno-competent enough to use MS products. And more often than not, these are the people who are on the top of the pyramid. (Do you think President of USA uses Ubuntu?)

[Stormy Eyes]

People aren't getting any smarter.

If people were getting smarter, Microsoft wouldn't be the only monster to be put to the sword. Organized religion, governments, corporations, collectivism in general -- it would all be brought to an end if people got smarter.

[Virogenesis]

(Do you think President of USA uses Ubuntu?)
Better question do you think he knows how to turn on a computer? ;)

[aysiu]

sure it can.

make it illegal. ... in the US? There are other countries out there, and they're not going to all make it illegal. Besides, do you think that making libdvdcss2 illegal in the US actually stops Linux users from using it?

South Korea just started up a Linux city and university dedicated to open source. I highly doubt Europe, Asia, South America, and Africa will be making open source software illegal any time soon.

[Stormy Eyes]

Better question do you think he knows how to turn on a computer? ;)

You're kidding, right?


Besides, do you think that making libdvdcss2 illegal in the US actually stops Linux users from using it?

I won't speak for other US Linux users, but the illegality of libdvdcss2 means about as much to me as the question of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

[twowheeler]

sure it can.

make it illegal.

Unfortunately, the reverse is more likely in the US. MS will lobby the government to make it harder and harder for OSS to exist, until finally it is impossible without breaking the law.

So, can open source defeat MS? IMO, no. But I would settle for making them a little more humble. ;)

[Virogenesis]

You're kidding, right?

Yes its called a joke it involves humor I'm basically taking the **** due to all his mistakes hes made in the past and the fact that he had connections to get him into uni.

[aysiu]

Yes its called a joke it involves humor I'm basically taking the **** due to all his mistakes hes made in the past and the fact that he had connections to get him into uni. Stormy Eyes doesn't do humor.

And neither do I.

[aysiu]

Just kidding.

[Stormy Eyes]

Yes its called a joke it involves humor I'm basically taking the **** due to all his mistakes hes made in the past and the fact that he had connections to get him into uni.

It's easy for you to crack jokes about Bush; you don't have to explain to your in-laws in Australia that not only did you not vote for that ersatz cowboy, but that he doesn't represent you or anybody else but himself.

[openmind]

If people were getting smarter, Microsoft wouldn't be the only monster to be put to the sword. Organized religion, governments, corporations, collectivism in general -- it would all be brought to an end if people got smarter.

Very, Very True.

Not gonna happen, But True nonetheless.

[htinn]

I've have to disagree. On the whole, people are getting smarter. This forum is proof of that.

[Dr. C]

Most certainly open source will defeat Microsoft, but it will not happen soon or suddenly. It will be a slow painful wearing down over a 10 - 20 year period.

[confused57]

Maybe, only time will tell. I can't really discuss this possibility at the level most of you here can; but being one of the older members of the forum, I'll put in my 2 cents worth. My first exposure to computers was in graduate school in the 70's, the only computers at the university were huge mainframes that were accessible to students for running Fortran(or Cobol?) programs(a stack of punch cards to accomplish a simple statistics problem). My point is that the general public really had no exposure to computers until desktop PC's, running of course, MS DOS, etc. and pc's now are pre-loaded with MS.

I think the key is that individuals are exposed to computers(and the internet, most importantly) at a very young age, I'm under they impression they're pretty much mandatory at the college level. Granted, many people don't go to college, but I think the increasing use of computers in school will lead to more using computers at home, with access to the internet. I think each new generation will be more computer literate, and be willing to explore other OS options such as Linux. More people using Linux, the more willing hardware and software vendors will be to support it, which will make Linux more usable. I would guess that most of the people trying Linux for the first time are fairly young, computer literate, and want to explore it's possibilities.

Sorry, I know this is pretty boring, so I'll cease the ramblings.....zzzzzzzz

[3rdalbum]

Open source is not a company and, thus, cannot be defeated. Canonical could go out of business. Red Hat could go out of business. Novell could. Mozilla could. But open source cannot die.

If Red Hat, Novell, and Mozilla went out of business, open source would be in a coma for an awfully long time!

The OEMs are where the battle is. If OEMs sold naked PCs alongside Windows PCs, Microsoft would lose a noticable amount of money. If OEMs sold Linux PCs alongside Windows PCs, Microsoft would have an uphill battle to keep "Joe Sixpack" and the low-incomers.

[aysiu]

If Red Hat, Novell, and Mozilla went out of business, open source would be in a coma for an awfully long time! I didn't mean all at the same moment.

[awakatanka]

If linux will be preinstalled on OEM computers and has easy install of all new hardware it can be possible.

Who will defeat microsoft : Linux, BSD our OSX then my bet will be OSX, Apple can't maintain there hardware position on x86 and will go software way on x86 in my opinion.

[tribaal]

I think you're asking the wrong quesiton here.

It's not about if it can or not, its about when it will ;)

- trib'

[ThirdWorld]

It will not be defeated but their market share will shrink 40 to 50% in the next 10 to 15 years. Linux will capture that market share. However, Windows will be the dominant OS for the home users and busines owners in rich countires (USA, JAPAN, CANADA, EUROPE ETC) similar of what apple is today, an elitist hardware manufacturer for the rich. but not for government agencies and public schools, those will belong to linux. In contrast in 2008 -2009 Linux is going to go mainstream in emerging markets, it will replace windows everywhere. And dont worry about games, once it goes mainstream video games will be ported similar of what game publishers are doing with apple.

edit: trust me, linux and windows will be like coke and pepsi in the near future.


(Do you think President of USA uses Ubuntu?)

Dude im afraid he dont even know how to spell C O M P U T E R correctly ;)

[3rdalbum]

I didn't mean all at the same moment.

Yeah I know, I was just making lame jokes :)

[jeremy]

It already has, it's just that there are a lot of people out there who do not know it yet!

[browndog]

Microsoft will stay on top as long as it can, but it is a company and can go bankrupt or be defeated.

Open source is not a company and, thus, cannot be defeated. Canonical could go out of business. Red Hat could go out of business. Novell could. Mozilla could. But open source cannot die.

Well said. The number of programmers working on and guarding proprietary Microsoft source code cannot compare with the tens of thousands of kind hearted programmers around the world that develop and improve Linux and Linux apps. Viva Linux!!

[browndog]

It will not be defeated but their market share will shrink 40 to 50% in the next 10 to 15 years. Linux will capture that market share. However, Windows will be the dominant OS for the home users and busines owners in rich countires (USA, JAPAN, CANADA, EUROPE ETC) similar of what apple is today, an elitist hardware manufacturer for the rich. but not for government agencies and public schools, those will belong to linux. In contrast in 2008 -2009 Linux is going to go mainstream in emerging markets, it will replace windows everywhere. And dont worry about games, once it goes mainstream video games will be ported similar of what game publishers are doing with apple.

edit: trust me, linux and windows will be like coke and pepsi in the near future.



Dude im afraid he dont even know how to spell C O M P U T E R correctly ;)

I think you're absolutely right. One of the greatest abilities Linux affords humanity is the ability to equalize opportunities for poor and developing markets / nations. The value isn't in the software itself, but in what it allows you to do. As Linux matures and becomes more pervasive we will see not only games but major productivity apps ported as well. I think it's too late for Microshaft...they are slowly going the way of AOL, no longer needed as a maturing computer and internet culture finds greener pastures.

[browndog]

Goobuntu??!! Never heard of this before but I think the effect to MS would devastating!!

[mfarquhar]

Right now, Google is producing Goobuntu for internal use only, but if they ever released it to the public, it would be a serious threat to Windows--Google has name recognition. Canonical does not.

Where did you find out about this? can you point me to it? it sounds really interesting

[aysiu]

Where did you find out about this? can you point me to it? it sounds really interesting It was a big news story toward the end of January this year. Rumors abounded that Google was going to release a version of Ubuntu to compete with Windows. Turns out that they developed a version of Ubuntu... but for internal use only. Read more here (http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&lr=lang_en&safe=off&q=ubuntu+google+goobuntu&btnG=Search).

[BoyOfDestiny]

It was a big news story toward the end of January this year. Rumors abounded that Google was going to release a version of Ubuntu to compete with Windows. Turns out that they developed a version of Ubuntu... but for internal use only. Read more here (http://www.google.com/search?num=100&hl=en&lr=lang_en&safe=off&q=ubuntu+google+goobuntu&btnG=Search).

I'm glad the ars technica article came up in the search,

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060131-6087.html

I read about it a while ago...

As for the register, I don't believe a thing they say.

[Dragonfly_X]

Microsoft will stay on top as long as it can, but it is a company and can go bankrupt or be defeated.

Open source is not a company and, thus, cannot be defeated. Canonical could go out of business. Red Hat could go out of business. Novell could. Mozilla could. But open source cannot die.

Somebody give ths guy a medal!

[TheCaptain]

The aim of FOSS is not to defeat Microsoft.

Nobody cares except the "1337" Linux users who still run a pirated version of XP but won't EVER admit to do it, at night they crawl up in bed feeling dirty.

[TheCaptain]

It's easy for you to crack jokes about Bush; you don't have to explain to your in-laws in Australia that not only did you not vote for that ersatz cowboy, but that he doesn't represent you or anybody else but himself.

And the people who voted him into office?

A democracy will always have the leader the people deserve.

[aysiu]

A democracy will always have the leader the people deserve. America's not strictly speaking a democracy.

[teet]

Another issue underlying the abandonment of proprietary applications for open-source products is the recovery time, DiDio said. For instance, she said, it takes Linux 30 percent longer to recover from a security attack in contrast to Windows.

I would seriously like to see where they got this figure from. I'm not even sure what it means too be quiet honest. But I do know that when somebody finds a serious flaw with ubuntu (like a few weeks/months back when they found that the root password you choose during installation was sitting in an unencrypted/unprotected file) it is usually fixed in a day or two. Microsoft, on the other hand, will post a bulletin online for anybody to read and a few weeks/months later release a patch!

-teet

[TheCaptain]

America's not strictly speaking a democracy.

It's a representative democracy, it's not exactly the same thing but the point being that the people are the ones who decides who becomes president.

AFAIC, raise the alert level to red and have GW run for a third time and he'd win again.

[TheCaptain]

If Red Hat, Novell, and Mozilla went out of business, open source would be in a coma for an awfully long time!

The OEMs are where the battle is. If OEMs sold naked PCs alongside Windows PCs, Microsoft would lose a noticable amount of money. If OEMs sold Linux PCs alongside Windows PCs, Microsoft would have an uphill battle to keep "Joe Sixpack" and the low-incomers.

If RH, Novell and Mozilla went out of business ~95% of all FOSS users wouldn't even notice it. The point is, there doesn't have to be a company behind Mozilla, the devs will develop without a backing company and others will take up the slack of lost devs for any of the projects.

For RedHat there is CentOS or WhiteBox, for Novells stuff... it was developed before Novell and it would be developed after Novell.

I don't know why people think that Mozilla wouldn't be developed without the Mozilla foundation, even if they made it closed source it would just be forked off from the latest open source version and continue to be developed by other people.

[ThirdWorld]

America's not strictly speaking a democracy.

Rigth now, In America freedom of speech is endangered. Dude, did you saw how comedy central censored the muslim's prophet Mohamed image in one of the latest South Park's episodes? do you know why? Some people said that 50% is for fear of the terrorists, and 50% because the FCC is under republican control and Saudi Arabia do business with many republican senators and that country owns 7% of the american economy and they are the main supporters of islam...

So Freedom of speech in america depends on foreign interests... meanwhile comedy central can make fun of scientologists, mormons, christians even jews etc.. but not muslims...[-X


http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2006/04/southpark_comedycentral.jpg

[Virogenesis]

The aim of FOSS is not to defeat Microsoft.

Nobody cares except the "1337" Linux users who still run a pirated version of XP but won't EVER admit to do it, at night they crawl up in bed feeling dirty.
True it isn't but Opensource promotes the use of openstandards which isn't what Microsoft are about so you can see why many compare the two and besides Microsoft are more afraid of opensource ie: linux because of that factor you see people asking that question.
People do care as drivers would be nice to have, applications such as dreamweaver would be nice to have on linux.
Some of the goals of the linux desktop are too convince software companies to release programs for linux.