Is the cloud over?

[wirate]

"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
For a university project, I am currently experiencing the same with cloud computing. Anything new that I come up with, is done already. So the question is, is it over? Of course the implementation is not over but is there room for any new ideas?
See this (http://wirate.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/is-the-cloud-over/)

[Gremlinzzz]

I don't know.

[tommy1987]

The question is not IMO 'is there room for new ideas' but will those new ideas not rely on the data which is already in the silo's of existing well established companies e.g. Google, Yahoo, Facebook, Twitter and is not available via API's.

[|{urse]

If huge companies can get together and lend a hand in creating bad-a interfaces to "the cloud" then it will all work out. In other words.. yes, it's over.

[fatality_uk]

http://wirate.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/is-the-cloud-over/

Is it really? (reply on the blog :P )

If you post here, expect replies here.

[3Miro]

Uploading some of your files on a random server makes sense, however, having an entire system on a "cloud" is huge violation of privacy. I have plenty of stuff that I don't want to ever leave my computer's hdd. Basically the whole cloud thing was DOA for me anyway.

[Paqman]

The link you posted doesn't suggest the end of cloud computing. On the contrary, the author was saying that s/he found endless variations of cloud computing, fulfilling every possible niche. They seem to be describing a very active and healthy cloud environment.

[koenn]

If you post here, expect replies here.
tch, you ruined his grand scheme for driving traffic to his blog - he 'll still get some hits, but if all the comments end up here, his blog will look dead ...

[koenn]

http://wirate.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/is-the-cloud-over/

Is it really? (reply on the blog :P )

you're suffering from "Everything that can be invented has been invented"-syndrome", first seen in 1899 (http://www.famousquotessite.com/famous-quotes-3660-charles-h-duell-commissioner-us-patent-office-1899-attributed.html) :

[FuturePilot]

I wish.

[Ctrl-Alt-F1]

Sorry. I'm not clicking your link because you didn't even post a quote in the forum.

If I understand what the Title is trying to say I'm gonna go ahead and say NO.

[tgm4883]

Nope

[Oxwivi]

Meh, you guys, what unfriendly responses. Well, I posted a comment there, the idea was not bad. Hope it goes through well for the OP.

[uRock]

Thread Closed.

Reopened with the addition of more info in the original post, so that people don't have to visit the blog to be in on the discussion.

[wirate]

If huge companies can get together and lend a hand in creating bad-a interfaces to "the cloud" then it will all work out. In other words.. yes, it's over.

Didn't really get it :confused:


Uploading some of your files on a random server makes sense, however, having an entire system on a "cloud" is huge violation of privacy. I have plenty of stuff that I don't want to ever leave my computer's hdd. Basically the whole cloud thing was DOA for me anyway.

Completely agreed. But it comes in handy at times


The link you posted doesn't suggest the end of cloud computing. On the contrary, the author was saying that s/he found endless variations of cloud computing, fulfilling every possible niche. They seem to be describing a very active and healthy cloud environment.

Yeah. it also suggests that the thing is getting mature now, doesnt it?


tch, you ruined his grand scheme for driving traffic to his blog - he 'll still get some hits, but if all the comments end up here, his blog will look dead ...

True :P

@Oxwivi Thank you :)

[Sporkman]

Uploading some of your files on a random server makes sense, however, having an entire system on a "cloud" is huge violation of privacy. I have plenty of stuff that I don't want to ever leave my computer's hdd. Basically the whole cloud thing was DOA for me anyway.

I tarcrypt (http://ubuntuforums.org/showpost.php?p=9879657&postcount=8) my data before I upload it to the UbuntuOne cloud.

[czr114]

Not even close. Most of the market won't resist it in the long run.

Day by day, personal computing devices become more and more of a lifestyle/entertainment appliance and less and less a tool. They'll follow the trends applicable to that grade of device, which are headed towards less thought, less hassle, and lower initial outlays (exchanged for greater lifetime revenue).

And about privacy - what privacy? Many of the fastest growing tech companies have built their fortunes on breaking down privacy barriers. Most of a personal computer's work product is no longer what most would consider protected private information, in that it's essential that technological barriers ensure it's for their eyes only.

As long as certain things (banking, taxes, occasional naughty photo sets) can be kept with a bit more discretion, most people won't resist a point-and-click interface assimilating their data from anywhere, to anywhere (with monthly fees and ad revenue, of course).

Much to the dismay of some purists, the personal computer (or device) is no longer the end in and of itself. The public sees it as the gateway to an abstract digital world. The form or concept of that gateway itself is becoming less and less relevant as long as it gets people quickly to their destination, which is already an abstraction, which we pictured with a cloud over a decade ago.

[handy]

I do what I can to block personal information, or my surfing habits from the so called "cloud". As I consider it an unauthorised invasion of my privacy.

But that's just me. I expect that in the future the planet will be in perpetual full cloud cover & only a tiny minority will want to fly around with their fog lights on.

[Dr. C]

The speech Freedom in the Cloud (http://www.softwarefreedom.org/events/2010/isoc-ny/FreedomInTheCloud-transcript.html) by Eben Moglen addresses the privacy and lack of freedom issues with the cloud very well. Nevertheless the cloud can be very useful as a backup medium provided the information placed in the cloud is encrypted with AES with a 256 bit key or a stronger cryptology and the cloud servers are in a jurisdiction different from that of the owner of the data.

[oldsoundguy]

The cloud is just beginning.
The goal is NOT just on line storage, but on line computing with the software residing in the cloud as well. This allows the developers of the software to have ultimate control of it's usage and will stop piracy.
This is why the high priced software such as Adobe will be the first to implement fully. They are doing it now.
Then there is Intuit. Already there with their tax program(s).
Microsoft has their cloud photo editing/storage already a functioning part of Win 7.

The ultimate goal is to have all PROGRAMS and the storage of the data from those programs at an on line location. (something that the programmers etc can put a price tag on!)

Your computer will consist of a bare bones OS .. sufficient to turn it and your components on and control them as well as your audio and video.
The primary job of the OS will be to support a browser SYSTEM (note the word SYSTEM) and all computing will be done THROUGH the browser.

SOOOO, you can see that there is a long way to go and many will only go under protests .. kicking and screaming all the way.

But BUCKS rule!

[czr114]

That's exactly why we have to stand up for principles of software freedom, which include not only open source and free licenses, but also, open platforms and open distribution. Things like paid app stores and hardware or OS lockout of unsigned code work against these principles by herding users into centrally controlled systems.

We have to make the case for free software on owned hardware.

That's why I donate to the Ubuntu project. It's the leading entity keeping this message of freedom alive, even while Apple, Microsoft, and Google are busy herding users into centrally run services, and attempting to normalize computing itself as a paid service being conducted on either thin "appliances", or locked down hardware designed to obey the vendor before the user.

[handy]

Interestingly, in Lion, the next version of OS X, "The Mac App Store" is proudly being advertised by Apple as one of the prime improvements for "the world’s most advanced operating system."

[Austin25]

It may seem like the end but it is only the beginning, for all beginnings come from ends and all ends lead to beginnings. Never will everything be invented, for we humans are imperfect by nature, as nature is imperfect itself; there will always be problems, and there will always be innovation. Ideas come from everywhere, and will naturally grow into solutions through the natural processes that we call thinking. If you feel nothing further can be accomplished, then go ahead and leave it in its inevitable perfection; genius you will never be.

[Paqman]

Yeah. it also suggests that the thing is getting mature now, doesnt it?


It does. How does that equate to "over"?

The cloud is not new, it's been with us for a long time. Webmail is a cloud service, for example. It's just the rise in bandwidth available to people that has allowed it to expand. Right now we're most of the way through the first great expansion in bandwidth (the shift from dialup to broadband). In the next few years we'll be going through another expansion as we shift from copper to fibre broadband.

You can bet your bottom dollar that the shift to fibre will be accompanied by another round of innovation in cloud services.

[uRock]

You are making me drool at the thought of fiber to the house. Hopefully they never take down POTS. If the power goes out VoIP won't work for getting emergency services.

[Paqman]

You are making me drool at the thought of fiber to the house.

You're lucky if you've got that in your future. It's a lot cheaper to lay fibre to the cabinet, so that's what most companies will be laying. Bit of a false economy if you ask me, as they'll just have to go back and upgrade from FTTC to FTTH at some point anyway.

There are some new build houses near me that are getting FTTH though. 100Mbps. I want.

[wirate]

It may seem like the end but it is only the beginning, for all beginnings come from ends and all ends lead to beginnings. Never will everything be invented, for we humans are imperfect by nature, as nature is imperfect itself; there will always be problems, and there will always be innovation. Ideas come from everywhere, and will naturally grow into solutions through the natural processes that we call thinking. If you feel nothing further can be accomplished, then go ahead and leave it in its inevitable perfection; genius you will never be.

That is worth quoting!

@others Maybe I am too dumb to think up anything new :(

[theraje]

CLOUD OVER!
SUN = VERY YES

(Sorry, just had to throw a H*R reference in there. :P)

[Johnsie]

Firstly, sorry for all the miserable posters, that kind of thing makes the Linux community look unfriendly and only pushes people away. I clicked on the website and posted a comment and it didn't kill me or give me cooties lol ;-)

IMO cloud is just a way to make a small number of companies dominant and take control away from the user and/or app developers. Kind of like how some of the posters here were trying to limit things to just this forum (which is a cloud). It helps to prevent competition. For example, Microsoft own Windows, but you can run alternative programs and control the system... With the cloud only the Microsoft stuff will be on the site and you will have less control. Microsoft will have the final say on what type of applications you can use on their cloud.

So unless you own the cloud itself it will be very difficult to maintain control of your own applications. I have written some applications for Facebook, but I know Facebook can make them unusable/reduntant tomorrow if they want.

If you create your own cloud then you can innovate as much as you want, but you need to find ways to get people to use your cloud, and people who use the 'big clouds' aren't always easy to convince into using unfamiliar/smaller ones (Hence the reason why some posters on this site didn't want to click onto the blog)

Is the cloud over? No! Is the cloud anti-competitive? In some ways yes, but you can always build your own. Has everything already been invented? Nooooooooooooooooooooooo

[Khakilang]

CLOUD OVER!
SUN = VERY YES

(Sorry, just had to throw a H*R reference in there. :P)

No! After cloud come rain than the sun and later rainbow.

[oldsoundguy]

You are making me drool at the thought of fiber to the house. Hopefully they never take down POTS. If the power goes out VoIP won't work for getting emergency services.

As an aside, I have VoIP via my ISP. To be able to have emergency (911 in the US) I bought a cheap TracPhone from Wall Mart. The cost is about $6+.US a month, and I can use it for emergencies while traveling also. (which I have had to do when my car broke down.)
Cheap peace of mind.
(back to the original thread)

[czr114]

POTS is an obsolete technology with huge ongoing maintenance costs and an enormous sunk investment. If that effort were devoted to better reliability across other systems, much of the criticism of its phase-out would be self-defeating.

FTTH is the future. The sooner we start building it out, the sooner we can begin reaping the economic benefits, and the less money will have to be squandered on patch jobs of obsolete infrastructure.

Cellular is a much better source of emergency assistance, anyway. It's easier to maintain cell towers than POTS, and cheap, reliable cell phones allow the beacon for help to move with the people, rather than being tethered in the living room.

[koenn]

others Maybe I am too dumb to think up anything new :(
yeah, that's what I was thinking. Well, maybe not dumb, but lacking in imagination, and assuming that since you can't imagine anything 'not yet invented', nobody can.

Here's some food for thought :
you wrote:"everything you could curse the cloud for had already been put very elegantly [eloquently?] by Eben Moglen".
otoh, you wrote that on a wordpress-hosted blog - the sort of cloud /server-control/centralized/ dis-empowered client contraption Moglen speaks about.

So what do you think about Moglen's comments, and how come you choose to have a blog in the cloud ?
Think about it and blog about that (or use it for your school work), it may be more interesting that what you have so far.

[uRock]

POTS is an obsolete technology with huge ongoing maintenance costs and an enormous sunk investment. If that effort were devoted to better reliability across other systems, much of the criticism of its phase-out would be self-defeating.

FTTH is the future. The sooner we start building it out, the sooner we can begin reaping the economic benefits, and the less money will have to be squandered on patch jobs of obsolete infrastructure.

Cellular is a much better source of emergency assistance, anyway. It's easier to maintain cell towers than POTS, and cheap, reliable cell phones allow the beacon for help to move with the people, rather than being tethered in the living room.
If a localized power grid goes out, POTS will still work, while nearby cell towers are likely to crash as well as the ISP's remote routers/switches that usually receive power from the local grid.

While the US is full of large cities there are even larger areas that do not have cable nor fiber. These people will be using POTS for a long time to come. Laying Fiber costs way too much to run it down rural highways.

[czr114]

If a localized power grid goes out, POTS will still work, while nearby cell towers are likely to crash as well as the ISP's remote routers/switches that usually receive power from the local grid.

While the US is full of large cities there are even larger areas that do not have cable nor fiber. These people will be using POTS for a long time to come. Laying Fiber costs way too much to run it down rural highways.
Cell towers are critical infrastructure. They can be subject to the same power redundancy in POTS, at a fraction of the expense. POTS manages to stay up when the power is out; there should be no reason why those failsafes can't be transitioned to the cell towers.

POTS may have to remain legacy in some areas, but national IT policy can't be shaped around the house on 100 acres in the middle of nowhere. Most people live in cities or suburbs. With that level of population density, we can craft our future around fiber with limited carved out exceptions, rather than letting the exceptions keep dictating the rule like they do now.

The rural POTS rollout hasn't been without great cost, either. It was largely paid for by universal service mandates and a litany of taxes applicable to everyone with a POTS line. It cost a similarly enormous amount of money to put it in in the first place. Maintaining POTS outside the cities/suburbs is extremely expensive. The infrastructure is old and continues to decay. Fiber requires significantly less maintenance and is significantly more fault tolerant. At some point, we have to recognize that the long term costs for maintaining POTS exceed the cost of biting the bullet for a near-universal fiber rollout.

New apartment buildings and subdivisions keep being wired for POTS and data over copper, because they're on a legacy mindset. POTS keeps being rolled out by the utility backbone, because they're catering to the legacy mindset. It's a catch-22 in need of symmetry breaking.

Fiber is cheaper to manufacture, cheaper to lay, cheaper to power, cheaper to maintain, and more fault tolerant. The current expense lies in the components on the endpoints. Those per-unit costs could be brought down if only they were produced in the same mass-run quantities as the business-as-usual copper equipment. There's another chicken-and-egg situation preventing real progress.

[Darth Penguin]

Steering clear of Chromium OS and not contributing to it's success is essential if you don't want to empower cloud computing.

"And that's all I have to say about that." ~ Forrest Gump

[Paqman]

It's easier to maintain cell towers than POTS

Er, the cellular phone system still routes your call through POTS. It's only the RF link at either end that differs from a regular phone call.

[czr114]

Er, the cellular phone system still routes your call through POTS. It's only the RF link at either end that differs from a regular phone call.

That's only partially true.

At any rate, when making a distinction between telephony protocol and the POTS infrastructure, it's become easier and cheaper to maintain a few fixed towers linked by bulk data lines to switching equipment than it is to maintain COs, poles, buried wires, switching panels, and copper to every end-user dwelling or business. Keeping an operational twisted pair functioning at every end-user installation, solely for low-bandwidth telephony, is not a good use of resources in the long run.

[uRock]

Cell towers are critical infrastructure. They can be subject to the same power redundancy in POTS, at a fraction of the expense. POTS manages to stay up when the power is out; there should be no reason why those failsafes can't be transitioned to the cell towers.

POTS may have to remain legacy in some areas, but national IT policy can't be shaped around the house on 100 acres in the middle of nowhere. Most people live in cities or suburbs. With that level of population density, we can craft our future around fiber with limited carved out exceptions, rather than letting the exceptions keep dictating the rule like they do now.

The rural POTS rollout hasn't been without great cost, either. It was largely paid for by universal service mandates and a litany of taxes applicable to everyone with a POTS line. It cost a similarly enormous amount of money to put it in in the first place. Maintaining POTS outside the cities/suburbs is extremely expensive. The infrastructure is old and continues to decay. Fiber requires significantly less maintenance and is significantly more fault tolerant. At some point, we have to recognize that the long term costs for maintaining POTS exceed the cost of biting the bullet for a near-universal fiber rollout.

New apartment buildings and subdivisions keep being wired for POTS and data over copper, because they're on a legacy mindset. POTS keeps being rolled out by the utility backbone, because they're catering to the legacy mindset. It's a catch-22 in need of symmetry breaking.

Fiber is cheaper to manufacture, cheaper to lay, cheaper to power, cheaper to maintain, and more fault tolerant. The current expense lies in the components on the endpoints. Those per-unit costs could be brought down if only they were produced in the same mass-run quantities as the business-as-usual copper equipment. There's another chicken-and-egg situation preventing real progress.

Where did you get your info? Fiber is a lot more expensive than copper. Coupling and terminating fiber is a much more delicate procedure. Putting an end onto coaxial of RJ45 is super easy and doesn't require the tech to set up a tent to keep dust from hampering the connection when fusing fiber. Another thing that makes fiber cost more, not less, is the wattage of the transmitters and receivers.

The pros to fiber are great. I am not knocking it. You get much, much more bandwidth per line and the repeaters for fiber are spread out further by a long distance.

Copper cabling is an easily melted and formed product. Fiber consists of one little piece of glass running through other layers of materials that protect the fiber from breakage and prevent the loss of light.

Back to POTS vs cell towers. POTS sends power down the line to your phone. Phone lines where I live are underground. Not all cell towers have fiber running to them. Some convert repeat your signal one or more hops before the signal gets to a tower that converts to fiber. How can you power those towers wirelessly? They have to be powered locally. Secondly, you can't send power down fiber and there is no company that bundles copper with fiber to run power to the site, so those towers have to be powered locally, too.

I must add that in my city the wireless companies have been dropping their leases on some of the towers to cut costs, which in turn has caused quite a few no service zones.

[Gremlinzzz]

yes the cloud is over.but now theres a new question does fiber make you go faster!

[Sporkman]

but now theres a new question does fiber make you go faster!

It definitely helps you go more regularly.

[uRock]

but now theres a new question does fiber make you go faster!
It definitely helps you go more regularly.

](*,)

[czr114]

Where did you get your info? Fiber is a lot more expensive than copper. Coupling and terminating fiber is a much more delicate procedure. Putting an end onto coaxial of RJ45 is super easy and doesn't require the tech to set up a tent to keep dust fro e wattage of the transmitters and receivers.

I recall those being the findings behind widespread rollouts across Europe, the key being that the fiber premium will be eliminated when it's manufactured using the same large-scale runs and mature technology behind copper.

From what I understood, it was a symmetry problem, in which each participant was acting rationally by avoiding the higher costs to befall the early adopters, even though it led to an irrational result, owing to the cost savings not able to be realized through scale-up if everyone adopted together.

Copper cabling is expensive in and of itself, because copper is expensive in and of itself.

The equipment is also supposed to draw less power than that used with conductive media.



The pros to fiber are great. I am not knocking it. You get much, much more bandwidth per line and the repeaters for fiber are spread out further by a long distance.


That should aid in bringing costs down. Repeaters are expensive and require maintenance and power, whereas additional cable is cheap with the right economy of scale.




Copper cabling is an easily melted and formed product. Fiber consists of one little piece of glass running through other layers of materials that protect the fiber from breakage and prevent the loss of light.
Copper is an expensive input, much more so than formed glass, at least once the fiber economy is scaled up to replace the copper economy. The cost of making fiber is in the capital equipment, not the input.



Back to POTS vs cell towers. POTS sends power down the line to your phone. Phone lines where I live are underground. Not all cell towers have fiber running to them. Some convert repeat your signal one or more hops before the signal gets to a tower that converts to fiber. How can you power those towers wirelessly? They have to be powered locally. Secondly, you can't send power down fiber and there is no company that bundles copper with fiber to run power to the site, so those towers have to be powered locally, too.

The towers aren't powered wirelessly. The ones with backup would be using a combination of fast-switching UPSes backed by generators, just as we'd use to provide fault tolerance in a datacenter.

The point is that it's a lot easier to keep a small number of towers powered constantly than it is an entire network of copper pairs running to each end-user location, just as it is much easier to maintain wired data links to a small number of towers than every individual end user. POTS requires the transmission of a quantity of current capable of powering the telephones themselves, in addition to what's required for the signaling.

What we're overcoming now is the initial capital investment in new technology. That involves a lot of engineering, setup, and licensing.



I must add that in my city the wireless companies have been dropping their leases on some of the towers to cut costs, which in turn has caused quite a few no service zones.
In that regard, POTS does have an advantage, in that its utility easements have either been imposed, or already bought and paid for.

[Austin25]

That is worth quoting!

@others Maybe I am too dumb to think up anything new :(
Thank you. I want to be a genius someday. Now I just have to figure out what I can do.

[wirate]

Here's some food for thought :
you wrote:"everything you could curse the cloud for had already been put very elegantly [eloquently?] by Eben Moglen".
otoh, you wrote that on a wordpress-hosted blog - the sort of cloud /server-control/centralized/ dis-empowered client contraption Moglen speaks about.

So what do you think about Moglen's comments, and how come you choose to have a blog in the cloud ?
Think about it and blog about that (or use it for your school work), it may be more interesting that what you have so far.



Templates, free and good hosting etc. the usual advantages of the cloud :confused:


yes the cloud is over.but now theres a new question does fiber make you go faster!
hahaha.. you're right!


Thank you. I want to be a genius someday. Now I just have to figure out what I can do.

you can do this: ](*,)

[Darth Penguin]

yes the cloud is over.but now theres a new question does fiber make you go faster!Yep, it makes you go more often too.