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derjames
April 6th, 2006, 01:29 PM
Hi there
To all Ubuntu comunity, how do you see LINUX (in general) in a 10 years time?... any thoughts
:-k

sapo
April 6th, 2006, 01:42 PM
In the IT field you cant even predict whats gonna happen next month, predict whatīs gonna happen in 10 years is just IMPOSSIBLE.

bjweeks
April 6th, 2006, 01:42 PM
At the rate we are going in 10 years we wont have the right to use linux on computers.

BoyOfDestiny
April 6th, 2006, 01:57 PM
Hi there
To all Ubuntu comunity, how do you see LINUX (in general) in a 10 years time?... any thoughts
:-k

I'd imagine it would be just about everywhere. I think we will get a hint of things to come for desktop within a year. I'm curious to see how people respond to Vista. Anyway, here is a small anecdote.

Back in the day (the mid 90's) when I tried having a top notch PC, there wasn't much choice of an os. For me Dos wasn't cutting it anymore, os/2 nope, mac out of the question, unix nope, and Linux was a baby I hadn't even heard of... windows was sadly it for me.

Corporate folks had NT, regular end users had a choice of the 9x's. These OS's [9x's] were essentially garbage. I'll define garbage. It was unstable, had leaks (I could not get win98 to stay on for more than 2 weeks), could not manage memory properly (disk thrashing), loads of serious security holes, etc.

My point is there wasn't a viable alternative, at least not for me. If MS even released a worse OS, people would buy and use it (windows ME anyone?).

However, IMHO there are viable choices now. If one doesn't really like MS offerings there are places to go. As more time elapses I can see Linux (and all the great open source software that ties with it) to continue to improve.

I guess I came down pretty hard on MS, the other issue is that I think XP was good compared to the previous offerings. I'm betting a lot of people won't switch from it to Vista unless there is something really compelling (which doesn't seem the case IMHO). I personally switched due to the idealogy of gnu (ok ok and things getting easier, like plug and play), I'd already been using GPL apps to work and play...

Final point, Linux and the apps that go with it has made microsoft irrelevant for me.
I'm sure there are others here who are glad to not have to pay the MS tax or apple tax. :twisted:

gnu2tux
April 6th, 2006, 01:59 PM
I have a piece of string. Any guess at how long it is?
:)

Seriously though, As stated earlier, it's simply not possible to predict accurately.

Linux is going from strength to strength in mobile and embedded markets so I would imagine a strong future there, desktop wise it's completely hit or miss, even if Linux is 'ready for the desktop' now.

Server wise, Linux always has been and always will be a wonderful platform that millions use daily. It keeps getting better every day, and that won't slow down any time soon with the model OSS takes. I still can't see any good reason to use a Microsoft server over a Linux one - there is no definining advantage, based on power, cost or any other FUD that redmond spout out. I've used MS in many server environments and it still sucks compared to unix.

That's my 2 cents.

Al.

mstlyevil
April 6th, 2006, 03:32 PM
It is impossible to truly predict where Linux will be in ten years. I will give my opinion on what i think will happen on the desktop end. In ten years, there will be one or two commercial Linux distros that will rival the offerings of Apple and MSFT. They will have commercial applications available for them that are only a dream right now and the will have a polish and feel that will make them very popular as a alternative to both Windows and Mac. The free side of Linux will greatly benefit from these offerings and there will still be many distros to choose from for those who do not want to pay for the commercial ones.

So I would say overall that many things will remain the same and some things will actually be better for Linux. I do believe it will have a double digit market share at that time, but it will not have the majority marketshare.

aysiu
April 6th, 2006, 03:58 PM
Ten years is a long time in computer land.

Ten years ago...

I had dial-up, and my parents had dial-up.

I was still using a Mac SE to do homework.

The computers at school were running Windows 95.

Netscape was the most popular web browser.

People used search engines like Northern Light and Altavista. I don't think Google existed at the time.

A CD-ROM drive wasn't standard in a computer.

No one had an iPod... or even MP3s--at least no one I knew.

What's filesharing?

512 MB of RAM was unthinkable.

Very few people outside of the university checked email or had an email account.

Ten years from now...

Who can say if we'll even be using desktop computers for the most part?

DoubleClicker
April 6th, 2006, 04:05 PM
Actually I expect in 10 years time Linux will be as common Unix is today. Gome will become a full fledged OS in it own right, likewise KDE will become KOS, and servers will be running DebianOS. ....Oh and Vista will released some time in the 3rd quarter :mrgreen:

ComplexNumber
April 6th, 2006, 06:21 PM
in 10 years time, i think the main DE on linux will be gnome. KDE will be very niche (if it still exists by then). i mean, given the difficulty of producing bindings for QT/C++, will programmers still be wanting to be tied to using C++ in 10 years time? one also has to consider whether big corporations will still want to use C++. KDE is trolltech's dog, so i'm wondering where trolltech will be in 10 years time.
of course, i may be wrong :p.

BarfBag
April 6th, 2006, 06:59 PM
Windows Vista will be released and will hold back the computer industry until the next version.

htinn
April 6th, 2006, 07:18 PM
Linux will most likely cause massive worldwide groaning as it changes from version 2.6.999 to version 2.6.1000 rather than 2.7.

PatrickMay16
April 6th, 2006, 07:38 PM
ComplexNumber, I swear, almost every post you make has something against Qt/KDE in it.
I don't mind what your opinion is. It's when you shout it out wherever you go, it provokes fights as you can see in this thread; about 50% of this thread is now just you and Helpme arguing each other.

Have a link to this image.
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/4110/picturesws2bmap5ah.png

Stormy Eyes
April 6th, 2006, 08:43 PM
There'll be a metric assload of newbies trying to get Duke Nukem Forever to work under Linux, and we'll be drooling over E18.

cnbiz850
April 7th, 2006, 12:38 AM
In the IT field you cant even predict whats gonna happen next month, predict whatīs gonna happen in 10 years is just IMPOSSIBLE.

Who said you can predict for 10 years in IT field? Windows hasn't even changed a bit in 5 years.

htinn
April 7th, 2006, 12:49 AM
If the past 10 years is an indication of where Windohs is going, I'm predicting the version *after* Vista will be embedded into devices, will require the latest fiber-optic connection, and will instantly be rooted by at least a dozen hackers around the world. The hackers will then use these super botnets to blackmail everyone out of business.

Arktis
April 7th, 2006, 12:54 AM
Microsoft will be running almost completely from China, and their latest version will be called "Windows: Fascist Corporate Regime Edition". You'll have to use biometrics equiped hardware to be able to use any computer. Most of the software and data you work with and save will all be stored on central servers and be subject to scrutiny by powerful government authorities. People will say things like "remember when we had hard drives? Those were the days...". Young whipper-snappers will overhear these conversations and report the offenders to the thought police.

Linux will be tied heavily to "terrorist activities".

Tin foil hats will no longer work, as the orbiting thought probe satelites will be able to easily scan through them.

Nobody will care however, as most people will stay at home permanantly connected to "the wireless" through brain implants. Eventually the machines will take over, controlled at first by a secret elite. Then this elite will be overthown and the machines will finally rule the world.

And I for one will welcome our new robot overlords.

ComplexNumber
April 7th, 2006, 12:56 AM
Microsoft will be running almost completely from China, and their latest version will be called "Windows: Fascist Corporate Regime Edition". You'll have to use biometrics equiped hardware to be able to use any computer. Most of the software and data you work with and save will all be stored on central servers and be subject to scrutiny by powerful government authorities. People will say things like "remember when we had hard drives? Those were the days...". Young whipper-snappers will overhear these conversations and report the offenders to the thought police.

Linux will be tied heavily to "terrorist activities".

Tin foil hats will no longer work, as the orbiting thought probe satelites will be able to easily scan through them.

Nobody will care however, as most people will stay at home permanantly connected to "the wireless" through brain implants. Eventually the machines will take over, controlled at first by a secret elite. Then this elite will be overthown and the machines will finally rule the world.

And I for one will welcome our new robot overlords.
he said 10 years, not 100 years :mrgreen:

Arktis
April 7th, 2006, 01:00 AM
he said 10 years, not 100 years :mrgreen:Oh yeah? You wait and see!!!! ;) :p

ComplexNumber
April 7th, 2006, 01:01 AM
hehe i truly hope not ;). technology tends to advance exponentially anyway. the more that is known, the faster the progress.

IYY
April 7th, 2006, 01:06 AM
Predicting stuff in the IT field is quite silly,but also quite fun. So here's what I think:


- Linux will become a lot more popular, might even become the most common OS around.

- One distro will win.

- XGL will become integrated in the desktop, and its effects will become much more polished (actually, I think this will happen in a year or two).

- KDE and Gnome will be gone, and we'll be using a new and improved DE.

- The repositories would become huge, containing nearly every piece of software out there.

- Microsoft will stop making operating systems and will stick to what they actually do well: making software. MS Office on Linux!

- Apple will become a hardware company, using the same OS as everybody else. They will also start designing and selling stereo systems, home entertainment sets, etc.

henriquemaia
April 7th, 2006, 01:22 AM
Ten years is a long time in computer land.

Ten years ago...

I had dial-up, and my parents had dial-up.

I was still using a Mac SE to do homework.

The computers at school were running Windows 95.

Netscape was the most popular web browser.

People used search engines like Northern Light and Altavista. I don't think Google existed at the time.

A CD-ROM drive wasn't standard in a computer.

No one had an iPod... or even MP3s--at least no one I knew.

What's filesharing?

512 MB of RAM was unthinkable.

Very few people outside of the university checked email or had an email account.

Ten years from now...

Who can say if we'll even be using desktop computers for the most part?

Very good post. Right on target.

SeanTater
April 7th, 2006, 03:02 AM
"Resistance is futile; You will be assimilated."
[Caution -- drifts off topic -- mods delete/move if necessary]
For a more interesting route:
Cybernetic devices are implanted into those that want it, or if you perfer, stitched into your skin, so as to be removable.
Nobody will touch Windows for the cybernetic devices for fear of a "security hole". Linux development slows down considerably, even though the number of kernel developers goes up 300 fold. Every bug notifying/fixing utility known to man is used on it. No one on Earth is aware of any security holes of any type.
Virus writers suddenly evaporate, realizing that a virus may infect them and cause them their life. We become telepathic, but again, it's optional.
Working in groups, advancing nuclear physics is like playing with play-doh. No inhabitable planets are found, but the population of Earth disperses into space. The population of Humanity is now 350 Billion. The population of Earth is only 1 Billion. People are set into heirarchial setups for distributed computing. Now neither time nor space limit Humanity -- yet no one is thrilled. But it's too late, the Earth cannot handle everyone coming back, so we go on extensive missions looking for "heaven" or at least another couple dozen Earths..

Do I get to make it into a movie now? :-D

jason.b.c
April 7th, 2006, 03:29 AM
Ten years is a long time in computer land.

Ten years ago...

I had dial-up, and my parents had dial-up.

I was still using a Mac SE to do homework.

The computers at school were running Windows 95.

Netscape was the most popular web browser.

People used search engines like Northern Light and Altavista. I don't think Google existed at the time.

A CD-ROM drive wasn't standard in a computer.

No one had an iPod... or even MP3s--at least no one I knew.

What's filesharing?

512 MB of RAM was unthinkable.

Very few people outside of the university checked email or had an email account.

Ten years from now...

Who can say if we'll even be using desktop computers for the most part?




Ten years from now...

Who can say if we'll even be using desktop computers for the most part?

Nah, Well all have our own personal Ubuntu robots powered by hydrogen fusion energy cells..;)

drizek
April 7th, 2006, 03:53 AM
I predict both OSX and windows will be ancient history ten years from now.

Why would anyone want to use a non-free OS anyway? The importance of the OS is diminishing as applications go from the desktop to the internet. I dont think we will ever see photoshop ported to linux, but we will be able to use photoshop inside firefox/konqueror/opera.

Arktis
April 7th, 2006, 05:17 AM
I predict both OSX and windows will be ancient history ten years from now.

Why would anyone want to use a non-free OS anyway? The importance of the OS is diminishing as applications go from the desktop to the internet. I dont think we will ever see photoshop ported to linux, but we will be able to use photoshop inside firefox/konqueror/opera.
Yeah, decentralized computing is a reality in the forseeable future. It's already being done now, with those $100 laptops with no hard drives (Google it; Microsoft just pubicly dissed them a while back). And of course, I'm sure you know about recent headline software that is browser based.

I still think that for security purposes, things like Linux will stay around in a more centralized, local fashion. This kind of computing will likely become more of a hobbyist niche. The rest of the devs may simply take the fork towards decentralized computing, likely giving the corporations a flow of ideas and some fair amount of competition.

But Linux will never die. Even if development comes to a crawl, people will still be hacking away at the code for fun and profit.

BoyOfDestiny
April 7th, 2006, 08:06 AM
Ten years is a long time in computer land.

Ten years ago...

I had dial-up, and my parents had dial-up.

I was still using a Mac SE to do homework.

The computers at school were running Windows 95.

Netscape was the most popular web browser.

People used search engines like Northern Light and Altavista. I don't think Google existed at the time.

A CD-ROM drive wasn't standard in a computer.

No one had an iPod... or even MP3s--at least no one I knew.

What's filesharing?

512 MB of RAM was unthinkable.

Very few people outside of the university checked email or had an email account.

Ten years from now...

Who can say if we'll even be using desktop computers for the most part?

Some things have not changed that much. As for me, my computer still looks like a computer. A mouse pointing device, speakers for sound, a keyboard, a tower, a monitor (svga), disc drives (even cd drives).
Similar internal components, only everything is bigger (in terms of storage capacity) and faster. Still the same old sound card + video card + drives + ram + cpu.
Heck, I saved my cds etc, I can still run software from 1995 no problem (even software from 1982 =) ).

http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/5294/screenshottyri0aq.th.png (http://img96.imageshack.us/my.php?image=screenshottyri0aq.png)