How long before Ubuntu is #1

[lao_V]

I can't help but wonder how long will it be before Ubuntu reaches the number one spot in the distrowatch's ranking? (http://www.distrowatch.com)

I'm monitoring the standard 'Last six months' view.
Your guess/vote should be inclusive of the month. ie by the end of feb, by the end of march etc...

EDIT: Please share what you think is going to be an estimated HPD (Hits per day) figure by this. At the moment its 996.

I feel it will be at least 1550 by the end of April

[IgnisUmbrarum]

wait.. on how long? like the 6 month, 3 month or 1 month?
because it already hit #1 for the 1 month, so that means it is currently number 1.... do you mean for the 6 month? because that will take a while.

EDIT:
I guess I should read the fine print, eh? ](*,)
I am not canadian. just thought I'd clear that up(oh...)

[lao_V]

Yes Ignis..read the fine print, or as we refer to it in the UK, small print!! :-)

[MaZiNgA]

I loooooove lao_v's polls!! :D

[lao_V]

I loooooove lao_v's polls!! :D
Thanks MaZiNgA!!

I know some people might find it 'useless' but I'm hoping to put some fun back into Linux/Ubuntu. Afterall isn't it all about fun?

Let's hope someone can make them sticky!!

[ubuntu_fan]

I loooooove lao_v's polls!! :D

The poll master! ;)

:D

[ubuntu_fan]

Seriously though, I would estimate April...

Why?

The average is for 6 months. Warty was released in October, so I think it'll be at the latest April, maybe even March.

The force runs deep!

:D

a.

[lao_V]

Seriously though, I would estimate April...

Why?

The average is for 6 months. Warty was released in October, so I think it'll be at the latest April, maybe even March.

The force runs deep!

:D

a.

Poll Master?! Maybe I should have that as my title! http://www.ubuntuforums.org/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif

Ubuntu_fan: Getting quite analytical there??!!! I bet you wouldn't be sharing the above info if this was a real bet for money http://www.ubuntuforums.org/images/smilies/icon_wink.gif

I must say, I'm quite disappointed so far though, 39 views and only 8 votes? C'mon people be more passionate about Ubuntu :-)

[adbak]

I'd say mid March or at the latest April. With all the speculation about Hoary, not to mention the fact that I don't think there are any showstopping bugs in Hoary right now, it will be sure to rise up. 1485 hpd.

[tkiesel]

My vote is April.

Some quick and dirty math on my lunch break. My training is as a physicist, so I love back-of-the-envelope calculations. In this case, back-of-the-attendance-slip.

The distro to beat is Mandrake, which seems to have held in the 1400s over the 6-month, 3-month and 1-month ranges. Let's assume that'll remain constant.

For Ubuntu, the HPD numbers as of me deciding to spend my time on this are,

6-month: 996 HPD
3-month: 1300 HPD
1-month: 1815 HPD

Now, of use would be finding out what the average HPD is for the earliest 3 months in that 6-month window above, bwecause next month's reading will still include the most recent 2 of those months. Since we already know what the average is for both the most recent 6 months and the most recent 3 months, we can extract the average for the earliest 3 months of the 6-month data.

(first_3-month_average + second_3-month_average) / 2 = 996

We know that second_3-month_average is 1300, so solving for first_3-month_average, we find 692.

So, next month's 6-month average will include two of those months, all three of the current 3-month average months, and a new value that we have no data on.

Assuming that the first_3-month_average was flat across all three months (which is surely not the case) and that next month's activity remains flat (which is also surely not the case) we can calculate a prediction of next month's 6-month HPD

[ (2*692) + (3*1300) + (1*1815) ] / 6 = 1183 by the 15th of March

That is underestimated, as mentioned above, but still rather shy of beating Mandrake's 1400ish.

Carrying the same assumptions forward

[ (1*692) + (3*1300) + (2*1815) ] / 6 = 1370 by the 15th of April

This is again an underestimate and a gross oversimplification of a situation with countless variables, but I think it puts Ubuntu safely on the track to #1 in the 6-month rankings by the end of April.


There's a joke I heard once. A physicist, a chemist and a biologist are asked to describe a cow. The biologist starts into detailed examinations of the ecosystem, interactions between living and nonliving systems and population dynamics, etc. The chemist dives right into ATP, the Krebbs cycle and all sorts of things like that. The physicist looks at the cow, nods, and starts off "First, let's assume that the cow is a sphere..."

;)

[lao_V]

Excellent post tkiesel!!

Never in my wildest thoughts (of which there are many ;) did I imagine anyone to come up with a detailed analysis like yours!

[tkiesel]

lao_V,

Thanks for the flattery. :grin: And it was only 8th grade math!

I think the best description of the analysis is still "gross oversimplification" though. The biggest assumption I made is that the current level of 1-month interval interest in Ubuntu will remain steady from this point. I don't think interest in this distro has hit a plateau yet, but that's just my gut intuition.

Much love,
T

[mark]

Okay, I voted May (gut response) and I'll hazard 1500 hits. I'm basing this largely on the scheduled release of Hoary.

[lao_V]

I must say I'm quite surprised to see two votes for Ubuntu never making it to #1? Why?

[Buffalo Soldier]

I must say I'm quite surprised to see two votes for Ubuntu never making it to #1? Why?

http://www.ubuntuforums.org/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=35

Maybe BWF89 (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/member.php?u=2200), landotter (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/member.php?u=7650), and nemin (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/member.php?u=3806) has some insight as to why they think Ubuntu won't be at #1.

[lao_V]

Ubuntu has p***ed the 1000 mark and reached 1005 as of today!!!!

[lao_V]

I have come up with a new calculation!! Here it goes..

AIM:
To try and find out the number of days it will take Ubuntu to overtake Mandrake.

Assumption:
As_suming a constant daily increase of HPD for Ubuntu is 9 and for Mandrake is 1 and starting with today's count (1005 and 1492 respectively) we have:

Formula:
1492 + 1*x = 1005 + 9*x (where x is number of days)

we can get the value of x to be 60.85 (61) days!

This means that by 16th of April Ubuntu would have taken over Mandrake!! (Ubuntu 1545 & Mandrake 1551!!!!)

In reality I have a feeling that the daily increase in HPD for Ubuntu is exponential rather then constant resulting in an even earlier victory?!!

To test this situation I have worked out a shorter wait of just 12.3 (13) days which is 1st of March by which Ubuntu would have overtaken MEPIS
(Ubuntu 1113 & MEPIS 1091).

(tkiesel: you got me started!!)

[lao_V]

To test this situation I have worked out a shorter wait of just 12.3 (13) days which is 1st of March by which Ubuntu would have overtaken MEPIS
(Ubuntu 1113 & MEPIS 1091).


Its 1st of March today and Ubuntu hasn't overtaken MEPIS yet :-(

However, it has moved to 4th place with HPD of 1127. Seems like MEPIS has been doing quite well in the last few days.

Revised Estimated Date for beating Mandrake: 3rd of April

[jsgotangco]

ummm does it really matter? RedHat used to be on top but look at it now...

[lao_V]

Fedora Core, formerly RedHat Desktop is still at number 2!

[MaZiNgA]

Fedora Core, formerly RedHat Desktop is still at number 2!
I can see that the one that gets on #1 will be very tough to fall because it gets hits by many newbies who just hit #1 distro on their visit to distrowatch...
Hmm I still believe in my May vote though

[lao_V]

6 days before Hoary is released and 3 days before Ubuntu reaches number 1 on distrowatch (http://distrowatch.com) Its so exciting!!

[UbuWu]

Two days would be my bet :wink:

[Dragonfly_X]

I loooooove lao_v's polls!! :D

I agree, Keep it up lao ! =D>

[arctic]

I must say I'm quite surprised to see two votes for Ubuntu never making it to #1? Why?
i also voted never because first of all, the distrowatch ranking does not reflect the usage of systems in general, as some might expect. it simply indicates some page hits on distrowatch's sub-pages. nothing more, nothing less. so, the more information a distro publishes, the higher its ranking. and it is especially newcomers who check frequently on distrowatch. the most widely used linux-system would be, according to distrowatch-ranking, mandrake, but it isn't. redhat and especially debian are used a lot more! but especially debian, gentoo or slackware users do not check the distrowatch-site but the site of their project directly. and once you have a stable system up and running, you won't see any need for cheking on distrowatch.

ubuntu is a great distro, no doubts there, but it is also some distro that has gotten some flair, some style, it is en vogue. just like suse was some time ago or gentoo or arch or knoppix. everyone wanted to have the most stylish distro (what is a stylish distro by the way???). but soon, the first enthusiasm went and -hey, ho!- they came back to earth. the best example is gentoo. take a look at its rating when it was initially launched at the masses. it climbed and climbed and climbed... and after a year or so, it slowly dropped and is ranked somewhere between 7 an 12 on distrowatch.

i expect ubuntu to stay in the top 5, but not to replace mandrake there. wait until mandrake releases its new distro and see the mdk page-hits rise again. and it will get more hits on distrowatch than ubuntu imho, because it is still better suited for newbies. almost every experienced user recommends mandrake for newbies. for a good reason (namely the mandrake-control-center and the installer with its excellent partitioner). i am a linux-veteran, but i would also tell a newcomer: use mandrake first, not ubuntu. once you are familiar with the basics, go on, test ubuntu or whatever you want.

[Slapdash]

It's not the hits on the Distro Watch pages but it Reflects the Hits that the Distro's Website gets every day by IP.

So one IP address = 1 hit per day = 1 point in the Distrowatch ranking.

So it might not reflect the Distro's USAGE it defnitly reflects the distro's, site hits per IP address.

[UbuWu]

Idea for the next poll: how long before kubuntu will be 2nd? :lol:
Don't think that is going to happen though.

[lao_V]

I definitely think that Kubuntu has the potential to be #1 as well, rather slowly though. Mainly because I have a feeling that there are more KDE users in the linux world then there are for any other DM's (combined! - have a look here (http://www.linuxforums.org/forum/topic-27549.html)) Ubuntu is great , with KDE its even greater!

[UbuWu]

I think Ubuntu will make that number change ;)

[lao_V]

It would be very impressive if one distro were able to do this on its own!

[TjaBBe]

I definitely think that Kubuntu has the potential to be #1 as well, rather slowly though. Mainly because I have a feeling that there are more KDE users in the linux world then there are for any other DM's (combined! - have a look here (http://www.linuxforums.org/forum/topic-27549.html)) Ubuntu is great , with KDE its even greater!
I personally know and see more people who like gnome, so I don't think that would be a valid resource. See this (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=21468) to prove the oposite of the poll you submitted :), plus it specifically indicates this community and counts allmost as many votes (aprox. 10 less) :D. You see here tha Ubuntu excedes the combined "others" (Kubuntu and difined) by double!

And for the people who vote "never" Ubuntu only needs 25 more hits and is raising, while mandrake is decreasing. So my bet will be with the people above who said two more days :).

[lao_V]

I personally know and see more people who like gnome, so I don't think that would be a valid resource. See this (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=21468) to prove the oposite of the poll you submitted :), plus it specifically indicates this community :D.

And for the people who vote "never" Ubuntu only needs 25 more hits and is raising, while mandrake is decreasing. So my bet will be with the people above who said two more days :).

The poll that you are referring to wasn't really meant to indicate which DM you prefer but rather which distro you prefer, now that we have ubuntu AND kubuntu!

For a DM poll on this forum, this (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=14854) is the correct one. And no one would be surprised if it was 100% GNOME here as Ubuntu is still primarily a GNOME distro hence the poll on other linux-centered/distro-independent would be more reflective of the popularity of a DM :-)

[TjaBBe]

The poll that you are referring to wasn't really meant to indicate which DM you prefer but rather which distro you prefer, now that we have ubuntu AND kubuntu!

For a DM poll on this forum, this (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=14854) is the correct one. And no one would be surprised if it was 100% GNOME here as Ubuntu is still primarily a GNOME distro hence the poll on other linux-centered/distro-independent would be more reflective of the popularity of a DM :-)
But you where initially comparing the popularity of Ubuntu to Kubuntu

I definitely think that Kubuntu has the potential to be #1 as well, rather slowly though
And I think that all KDE - Ubuntu users are using (or would at least choose for) Ubuntu. Also because the DM is given behind the options, I think this poll is as valid as any other DM poll if only under Ubuntu users (wich we are talking about in the end :)).

I also think KDE is more popular bij new users, as it is a bit more Windows-like (menu positions and stuff). Since the recent gnome versions wich are a lot more "finished" as compared to the older gnome versions (with integrated cd burning, better looks and stuff like that) I think it's gaining ever more popularity. A big reason for this, I think, is because gnome is MUCH more lightwight then KDE.

[lao_V]

In this poll (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=14854) I'm trying to find out if it makes sense to have kubuntu as a seperate distro. The only reason I put kde/gnome in brackets is to highlight the major difference between the two distros. Also, that poll doesn't contain any of the other DM's which add up to a considerable number

[TjaBBe]

In this poll (http://www.ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=14854) I'm trying to find out if it makes sense to have kubuntu as a seperate distro. The only reason I put kde/gnome in brackets is to highlight the major difference between the two distros. Also, that poll doesn't contain any of the other DM's which add up to a considerable number
Lol I didn't notice you started that poll I mentioned ;). The poll you submitted with your last post is yet another poll by you by the way, wich also indicates Gnome has more support ;). And wich does include all WMs/DMs.

In the first post of that poll you indicated that you're a "Gnome all the way" by the way. What made you slip over to the dark side? ;)

[lao_V]

Lol I didn't notice you started that poll I mentioned ;). The poll you submitted with your last post is yet another poll by you by the way, wich also indicates Gnome has more support ;). And wich does include all WMs/DMs.

In the first post of that poll you indicated that you're a "Gnome all the way" by the way. What made you slip over to the dark side? ;)

You might find that a number of polls on this forums have been started by myself :)

I am using kde for a number of reasons at the moment. It supports slide show of backgrounds, a particular view i like when displaying files in file manager, ability to open a terminal from the file manager at the location you are browsing, programming with kdevelop and number of other trivial ones. I still have/use gnome and making the most of freedom of choice

[totalshredder]

lao_V: Poll Maker

When are we going to get that girl a custom title? ;-)

On distrowatch, ubuntu has quickly closed the gap to a mere 28!! We're talking world domination by tomorrow :-D This still doesn't mean all that much though, because I'll bet you anything there's more mandrake, debian, or red hat systems out there than there are ubuntu. Now we just need to keep that ranking :)

Luke

[lao_V]

lao_V: Poll Maker

When are we going to get that girl a custom title?

Who you calling a girl? ;-)




On distrowatch, ubuntu has quickly closed the gap to a mere 28!! We're talking world domination by tomorrow :-D This still doesn't mean all that much though, because I'll bet you anything there's more mandrake, debian, or red hat systems out there than there are ubuntu. Now we just need to keep that ranking :)
Luke

Its true that it doesn't really represent the true market share but I have a feeling its getting closer!

[totalshredder]

Who you calling a girl? ;-)
Okay, I'll call you bob then. :-D


Its true that it doesn't really represent the true market share but I have a feeling its getting closer!
True, very true. It makes me feel like I'm part of a revolution! As long as it's on top of distrowatch, whenever somebody new to linux starts reading up on what distro they should install, they'll see ubuntu at the top of the list and go "oh, cool, ubunu" which is good for two reasons, 1. They'll actually stick with linux then. 2. They're using ubuntu and not another distro! (which isn't a bad thing ;) )

Luke

[lao_V]

One new feature of kde 3.4 i find is excellent is the ability to download and set new wallpapers directly from the kcontrol without having to going to the website, downloading the file and pointing to that file!!

[lao_V]

Ubuntu is #1 as of 3rd April 2005!!!!! Congratulations to everyone involved!!!

[Buffalo Soldier]

I voted June. I guess I'm off by two months :P

I wonder how those 5 people who voted for never feel like right now.

p/s: lao_v, this is just a suggestion. Maybe for your next poll you should make it anonymous. people will feel more comfortable in voting if they know people can't know what they voted for.

[jeremy]

Perhaps this thread should be mv'd to "How long is it since ubuntu wasn't nº 1".

[lao_V]

This has now officially been covered on Distrowatch (http://distrowatch.com/weekly.php?issue=20050404#1) and proudly mentioned on the Ubuntu press release (http://www.ubuntulinux.org/ubuntu/press/document_view)!