Fund Manager Predicts Microsoft's Business Collapse

[donato roque]

Posting this here because the author himself sought comment/help from geeks about what he is saying. The article is long but the gist of his report is that Open Source/Linux is on the ascent and closed source/proprietary systems like Microsoft and Apple are going to fail.

Business Insider-A Fund Manager Tries To Figure Out Whether Microsoft's Business Will Collapse (http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-a-real-chance-microsofts-business-will-simply-collapse-2010-8)

[lordhaworth]

I think we've seen it before with such things as the ZX spectrum (although before my time and on a much smaller scale) - a generation of people who aren't scared of getting their hands dirty in the world of computing is possible with the right support of a community such as this forum.

Android is probably giving open source the most publicity/new hands at the moment, but that will leak over to Linux as it catches on on a larger scale

[xir_]

I think we've seen it before with such things as the ZX spectrum (although before my time and on a much smaller scale) - a generation of people who aren't scared of getting their hands dirty in the world of computing is possible with the right support of a community such as this forum.

Android is probably giving open source the most publicity/new hands at the moment, but that will leak over to Linux as it catches on on a larger scale

It also help that google is now merging more of their code back into the kernel too.

[KiwiNZ]

And when the author wakes up he will discover that even Unicorns are not real.

These pop up every x number of months.

[fatality_uk]

And when the author wakes up he will discover that even Unicorns are not real.

These pop up every x number of months.

Uni *sniff corns *sniff.... not *blub REAL???
WOOOAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

[KiwiNZ]

Uni *sniff corns *sniff.... not *blub REAL???
WOOOAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

I would have said Tooth fairy but meeting Julie Andrews would give me nightmares :p

[xir_]

And when the author wakes up he will discover that even Unicorns are not real.

These pop up every x number of months.

One thing he said is right and that is MS stock is very low for such a profitable company and they are having difficulty breaking into new markets, especially when it comes to connecting to the ipod generation.

[RiceMonster]

OMG year of the Linux desktop!!!1

[Naiki Muliaina]

OMG year of the Linux desktop!!!1

Its a ruddy long year of the desktop isnt it? Been about 3,650 days so far right? :rolleyes:

[earthpigg]

thoughts:

"x386" is an odd term, usually "x86 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X86)" is used instead.

he seems to describe enterprise-level thinclients as synonymous with virtualization. huh?

[KiwiNZ]

One thing he said is right and that is MS stock is very low for such a profitable company and they are having difficulty breaking into new markets, especially when it comes to connecting to the ipod generation.

two words...... 'share split'. or for the USA 'Stock split'

[sydbat]

two words...... 'share split'. or for the USA 'Stock split'How 'bout "unicorn split"??:P

[juancarlospaco]

Unicorns exist, and know how to Swim... (http://www.google.com/images?hl=en&biw=1440&bih=813&gbv=2&tbs=isch:1&sa=1&q=narval&aq=f&aqi=g10&aql=&oq=&gs_rfai=)

:)

[MCVenom]

I think Microsoft might be in a weaker position...

But rumors of their death are greatly exaggerated. :P

[KiwiNZ]

I think Microsoft might be in a weaker position...

But rumors of their death are greatly exaggerated. :P

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they report increased earnings in the last quarter ?

[jrusso2]

I have been hearing these predictions at least since 1998. I am not going to hold my breath.

[MCVenom]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they report increased earnings in the last quarter ?
I'm not quite going off of earnings... At the risk of sounding ignorant or uninformed, I think the issues they've been facing in regards to moving into embedded/mobile markets might weaken them. Of course, their desktop and corporate based business might be booming at the same time. :P

Oh, and it seems they've made quite the splash with Bing. Personally, though, I once again don't think they're going anywhere anytime soon.

[KiwiNZ]

With the assets and Cash reserves they have even if their traditional markets begin to "dry up" they have the resources to alter course.

Just look at big blue , IBM , they have altered course so many times they look like a yacht in a tacking duel.

Microsoft disappearing ? no. And anyone in IT be they in Windows related sector directly or other areas would not want that to happen and should not want that to happen as the fall out would be industry wide and colossal. Those that wish it are displaying incredible naivety.

[MCVenom]

And anyone in IT be they in Windows related sector directly or other areas would not want that to happen and should not want that to happen as the fall out would be industry wide and colossal. Those that wish it are displaying incredible naivety.

+1 To that. I'm pretty sure that would also take America's economy down pretty far too.

[alexfish]

With the assets and Cash reserves they have even if their traditional markets begin to "dry up" they have the resources to alter course.

Just look at big blue , IBM , they have altered course so many times they look like a yacht in a tacking duel.

Microsoft disappearing ? no. And anyone in IT be they in Windows related sector directly or other areas would not want that to happen and should not want that to happen as the fall out would be industry wide and colossal. Those that wish it are displaying incredible naivety.


Quick Drop That Anchor

http://cdn2.windows8news.com/wp-content/gallery/windows-8-wallpapers-i/Windows_8_Wallpaper1.jpg

HEAVE_HO mi hearties HA HA HA

[rollin]

Quick Drop That Anchor

http://cdn2.windows8news.com/wp-content/gallery/windows-8-wallpapers-i/Windows_8_Wallpaper1.jpg

HEAVE_HO mi hearties HA HA HA

Lol :) But "chidori" 1000 birds chirping? Not even the Oracle could have predicted that, candy must have gone-off ...

[zekopeko]

Correct me if I am wrong but didn't they report increased earnings in the last quarter ?

Yes they did.

The main problem with them is their management and corporate culture. This days they are so big that you can start thinking of their divisions as separate companies (heck pseudo-competitors even). There is a nice article on Ars about the Kin debacle and how they wasted 500 million $ on that.

And this iPod generation theory really doesn't hold water. They have the second most successful console on the market and a subscription service that rivals WoW.

Windows Phone 7 is on the way, and they are entrenched in the business sector which they are starting to fill with Web services. I think they are going nowhere for a very long time.

[phrostbyte]

Microsoft is so big they can go nowhere for decades and still be in business. It's kind of like GM, it took them decades of incompetence to actually start going downhill. And they always have government contracting to consider, a real golden parachute.

None the less they are now a smaller company by market capitalization than Apple, which is laughable considering Microsoft's position in the market.

Microsoft are not as big of a threat to the future of FOSS and Linux that they where maybe even 5-6 years ago. But they are still a big force in the market especially in the coveted "desktop OS" market Ubuntu seems to be fighting for.

[phrostbyte]

With the assets and Cash reserves they have even if their traditional markets begin to "dry up" they have the resources to alter course.

Just look at big blue , IBM , they have altered course so many times they look like a yacht in a tacking duel.

Microsoft disappearing ? no. And anyone in IT be they in Windows related sector directly or other areas would not want that to happen and should not want that to happen as the fall out would be industry wide and colossal. Those that wish it are displaying incredible naivety.

You seem to value stability over change and progress, well I am not the same way. I would gladly love to see the entire "Windows-related sector" fall and preferably be replaced by a "Linux-related sector". But that is just me.

Year of the Linux desktop and all. :)

[KiwiNZ]

You seem to value stability over change and progress, well I am not the same way. I would gladly love to see the entire "Windows-related sector" fall and preferably be replaced by a "Linux-related sector". But that is just me.

Year of the Linux desktop and all. :)

I believe in change by progress and innovation not change by collapse

[Nick_Jinn]

Sometimes the most radical change comes through cycles of death and rebirth.

I dont think Microshaft is on the verge of going out of business....no way. However, I think they may end up in decline. I think Smartphones is what is going to lead to their losing ground.....People are now used to using multiple operating systems because of their phones. That could easily translate to being a little more bold in ones choice of desktop OS.

And you have to factor for inflation and overhead. If a company doesnt grow at a certain rate, they are actually in decline. Economics are not as straight forward as they should be. Numbers are manipulated (to the extent that the law allows, if not further) to manipulate the investors.

[phrostbyte]

I believe in change by progress and innovation not change by collapse

All that is old dies to make room for the new. That's nature. :)

[MCVenom]

All that is old dies to make room for the new. That's nature. :)
Hey guys, I don't know where y'all live, but I figure since they say this is a 'global recession', could we please wait until we're out of it to wish for the collapse of a multi-million/billion dollar company? :|

If we have riots in the streets (or, just too many people that can't afford computers) I don't think operating systems will matter much for a little while.

Plus, what's to say they won't just move to Mac? :P

[alexfish]

All that is old dies to make room for the new. That's nature. :)

evolution is nature look what happened to the dinosaurs , not to mention the dodo

[kaivalagi]

The linux kernel will never die, isn't that what counts :)

As a side note I work with quite a bit of enterprise stuff where I work, a lot of which has open source origins (mostly apache activemq/ds etc)...the biggest problem for open source to me is how some companies pick up a technology that is free, rebrand it and make very small tweaks (usually in API/system component names only), and then sell it on for big money and don't even pass any useful fixes upstream again...

If this carries on there will be big players originating from the open source world but open source itself will still carry on as it always has...in the background mostly forgotten about except for the money makers using and abusing it.

I have tried to convince the company I work for to take on frameworks straight from the source but they seem to want to spend big money on a service agreement that is rubbish...I guess they think if they spend huge sums it must be better than open source. The fact that I have to spend a lot of time investigating issues when it should be the job of the money makers says it all to me. Gawd, CIO's are stupid!

[alexfish]

The linux kernel will never die, isn't that what counts :)

As a side note I work with quite a bit of enterprise stuff where I work, a lot of which has open source origins (mostly apache activemq/ds etc)...the biggest problem for open source to me is how some companies pick up a technology that is free, rebrand it and make very small tweaks (usually in API/system component names only), and then sell it on for big money and don't even pass any useful fixes upstream again...

If this carries on there will be big players originating from the open source world but open source itself will still carry on as it always has...in the background mostly forgotten about except for the money makers using and abusing it.

I have tried to convince the company I work for to take on frameworks straight from the source but they seem to want to spend big money on a service agreement that is rubbish...I guess they think if they spend huge sums it must be better than open source. The fact that I have to spend a lot of time investigating issues when it should be the job of the money makers says it all to me. Gawd, CIO's are stupid!

Look on the bright side , you still have a job

[Zoot7]

MS is going to collapse.. again!?

OMG, time to pop the champagne bottle!!! :popcorn:

:rolleyes:

[kaivalagi]

Look on the bright side , you still have a job

lol, you're not wrong there....I've been quite lucky really, I was only out of work for 2 months and then landed a nice 6 week contract that has now been ongoing for close to 4 months already :)

[Zorgoth]

Sometimes the most radical change comes through cycles of death and rebirth.

I dont think Microshaft is on the verge of going out of business....no way. However, I think they may end up in decline. I think Smartphones is what is going to lead to their losing ground.....People are now used to using multiple operating systems because of their phones. That could easily translate to being a little more bold in ones choice of desktop OS.

And you have to factor for inflation and overhead. If a company doesnt grow at a certain rate, they are actually in decline. Economics are not as straight forward as they should be. Numbers are manipulated (to the extent that the law allows, if not further) to manipulate the investors.

Hmmmmmm... Smartphones are going to be the end of Microsoft? Kind of like Linux netbooks were the beginning of a new era? Or how Russia's entire school system was going to switch to Linux?

Just not going to work. When Russia's school system tried to switch to Linux, MS sold them Windows licenses for $30 apiece. Almost no netbook you see in the store has anything but Windows now. The reason is that Microsoft knows that Linux is fundamentally the biggest threat to them, and wherever Linux starts to enter a mainstream desktop market they are going to spend as much as they can to shut it down. I don't see that Android on smartphones is going to convince anyone to switch their desktop OS, and Chrome OS won't either since its not really a full-fledged operating system.

[spoons]

My philosophy is now that if you want something to be better you have to do it yourself. That's the fastest and best way of making it better.

[earthpigg]

My philosophy is now that if you want something to be better you have to do it yourself. That's the fastest and best way of making it better.

Linus and RMS would both approve, I think :P

[Nick_Jinn]

Hmmmmmm... Smartphones are going to be the end of Microsoft? Kind of like Linux netbooks were the beginning of a new era? Or how Russia's entire school system was going to switch to Linux?

Just not going to work. When Russia's school system tried to switch to Linux, MS sold them Windows licenses for $30 apiece. Almost no netbook you see in the store has anything but Windows now. The reason is that Microsoft knows that Linux is fundamentally the biggest threat to them, and wherever Linux starts to enter a mainstream desktop market they are going to spend as much as they can to shut it down. I don't see that Android on smartphones is going to convince anyone to switch their desktop OS, and Chrome OS won't either since its not really a full-fledged operating system.


Maybe you need to re-read my post. Where did I say Windows was going to collapse? I said that it might see a slight decline as other operating systems enter the computing market.

And I think you missed my point about mobile computing. We are seeing a massive resurgance of ARM processors, which are in many ways superior to the chips that AMD and Intel are making for mobil chipsets. Its not a matter of windows rolling out a cheaper version of Windows XP. Windows simply cannot run on an arm processor. Linux can.

[alexfish]

lol, you're not wrong there....I've been quite lucky really, I was only out of work for 2 months and then landed a nice 6 week contract that has now been ongoing for close to 4 months already :)

if your location is correct ,nice area got some friends at East Derham

had to call in at Southwold harbour whilst sailing up the coast, got caught in a big storm some 17 or so years ago ,when Norfolk flooded 20 miles inshore , Pleased they lived there to gets some rest and a few beers

good luck with the job

alexfish

[kaivalagi]

if your location is correct ,nice area got some friends at East Derham

had to call in at Southwold harbour whilst sailing up the coast, got caught in a big storm some 17 or so years ago ,when Norfolk flooded 20 miles inshore , Pleased they lived there to gets some rest and a few beers

good luck with the job

alexfish

Cheers, my work gets me travelling to Preston and Walsall most of the time. When I arrive home off the plane it is such a nice feeling, zero background noise and everything just that little bit slower again :)

[murderslastcrow]

Microsoft has its hands in a lot of businesses outside of the OS. Even if Windows died, I think they'd still advertise Office, the XBOX 360, or even the Zune. Of course, if Windows died, they'd probably still try to get some sort of software out there with their name on it to be sold, even if it were open source.

I don't see Microsoft going away any time soon.

But, if you really dislike Microsoft that much (I have a lot of personal reasons that I could spite them, but I don't find much use or purpose in hating someone who unintentionally caused me a lot of financial issues, despite having the best antivirus solutions available), there's good news.

Their users thing they're money grubbing hypocrites. Their users know they do illegal and controlling things. Their users use Microsoft products because they think it's all they can use.

Their users would rather stick to pirating a 9 year old operating system and theme it than pay out the wazoo for a newer, slower version. And software developers are supporting XP for the long run, even if it's 'unofficial' support. Heck, if you use kernelEx, you can even run Windows XP software on Windows 98!

So yeah, regardless of Microsoft making money well into the future and screwing consumers, at least the consumers are aware of how screwed they are. They just aren't aware that a Mac isn't the easiest way out.

Although I have run into some Windows fans who think 7 is its savior. Unfortunately, they were disproven while demoing Windows 7 to me, as it froze several times and Aero died about five times during the demonstration. It all ended with a hilariously out of place blue screen of death (I heard Windows 7 didn't have that anymore, but I guess not).

So really, except for a certain few, people have always known Windows sucks. Most of the people on the internet ragging about Windows haven't used anything else- if your product's so bad you don't need comparisons to realize its disadvantages, then good luck.

[Nick_Jinn]

The black editions are way better than the originals. I would prefer the black editions despite having a serial number for the regular editions.

[murderslastcrow]

I concur. Once Microsoft starts using a better file system (like the one they had planned), support more formats, and they get system permissions working correctly so that malware doesn't have a chance to touch it (UAC only protects against trojans that use full-scaled installers and certain ports on the network, not all- any malware coder would easily circumvent this using different methods of installation and ports, it's not effective protection), I might more openly endorse its use.

However, to get those permissions working, they will have to disable many older programs that operate on the administrator account only. Even 3ds max and certain Adobe programs don't work right under a restricted account, making the security useless.

So, if you want to be really careful, have an account with administrator access that only creates new files, not taking in any new stuff other than your vendor's software, then have an internet-enabled restricted account with extra security measures made just for interacting with the internet.

However, if you're going to do that, it would be far simpler to just dual-boot and use Ubuntu for the internet stuff and leave your Windows partition without any internet access to begin with. Just have it specialized for whatever it has that Ubuntu doesn't (this would be the full Adobe suite in most cases for businesses).

Of course, if you play MMOs like crazy... good luck I guess. Just be careful.

[kamaboko]

Although I have run into some Windows fans who think 7 is its savior. Unfortunately, they were disproven while demoing Windows 7 to me, as it froze several times and Aero died about five times during the demonstration. It all ended with a hilariously out of place blue screen of death (I heard Windows 7 didn't have that anymore, but I guess not).

Win7 is solid. I use it for my HTPC and as a server of sorts to shuffle files around. I've had zero problems with it.

[Nick_Jinn]

I dont use Windows for much these days. At one point I would keep it for odd programs I couldnt get working, but I have Photoshop and Fallout 3 working in Ubuntu now, so I see no point. I wont be buying anymore Windows only games. Ill probably use black edition in virtual machine and just stay with Linux.

I do installations for people though, and when their system disks wont allow me to dual boot linux, I skip those and use black editions instead. I encourage people to use Linux mostly, especially for the web and just use windows for netflicks and some odd software they still have.



But yeah, even the black edition is still using that crummy file system. They did they best they could with what they had to work with. Its definitely a step up.




Using Win7 for really simple tasks with minimal web interaction is probably fine. However, if it was your primary web browsing and downloading OS it would get infected in a hurry....Also, it gets bent out of shape, so to speak. For your purposes it was probably fine, but if you are installing and installing large programs and files, it takes all kinds of maintenance to keep solid....registry cleaners, spyware, antivirus, defragmentation....all these different tools. The learning curve is shallow but it requires tons of tedious maintenance. Linux is the inverse. Setting up requires more effort and knowledge but then its rock solid.

[RiceMonster]

Using Win7 for really simple tasks with minimal web interaction is probably fine. However, if it was your primary web browsing and downloading OS it would get infected in a hurry....Also, it gets bent out of shape, so to speak.

People keep saying that, but I have not had a single issue. All I do is run as a limited user, and run MSE. I scan my computer every few days with MSE, and have never found anything. Do you download tons of porn and cracked software or something?

[alexfish]

Win7 is solid. I use it for my HTPC and as a server of sorts to shuffle files around. I've had zero problems with it.

you should watch where the files are getting shuffled to

win 7 is only solid on top, its like ice cream below , I love melting ice cream

[kamaboko]

People keep saying that, but I have not had a single issue. All I do is run as a limited user, and run MSE. I scan my computer every few days with MSE, and have never found anything. Do you download tons of porn and cracked software or something?

I agree.

[Dixon Bainbridge]

Hey guys, I don't know where y'all live, but I figure since they say this is a 'global recession'

THere is no such thing as 'recession'. Its more a political term than an economic one. Just as many businesses go bust during 'boom' times as 'recession' times. Recession is used by governments as an excuse to cut public spending. There is always money to be paid, and there is plenty of cash sloshing around. Smart businesses shift their focus to whats selling, dumb ones don't and go bust. This happens whatever the alleged economic climate.

Sales of high end luxury items like sports cars, yatchs etc are through the roof. There are plenty of people making good money.

UK banks are all back in profit, including Northern Rock, the bank that was hit biggest by bad loans.

Recession? No such thing.

[Khakilang]

When Microsoft fall. Intel and AMD will fall and a host of other vendor will fall. It will be just like the domino effect. Who will benefit from their failure. Mac, Linux or Unix? If those vendors are smart enough they will start investing on creating hardware and software for Linux/Unix. At least there is some cushion.

[Swagman]

A couple of points

Microsoft is a massive company with massive overheads.

Statistics can be made to look however you want them to.

eg: So a company (ANY company) posts an increase in revenue... Shame about the overall LOSS (That gets conveniently hidden until the administrators are called in. re: Sun 4 U (http://www.sun4udirect.com))

[KiwiNZ]

A couple of points

Microsoft is a massive company with massive overheads.

Statistics can be made to look however you want them to.

eg: So a company (ANY company) posts an increase in revenue... Shame about the overall LOSS (That gets conveniently hidden until the administrators are called in. re: Sun 4 U (http://www.sun4udirect.com))

MS is a public company subject to public audit , and Federal audit. They have very large fiscal reserves and good assets. One really needs to be realistic here.

Their profits are real and not statistical trickery.

[Nick_Jinn]

People keep saying that, but I have not had a single issue. All I do is run as a limited user, and run MSE. I scan my computer every few days with MSE, and have never found anything. Do you download tons of porn and cracked software or something?

I do a bit of downloading. I live with my girlfriend so not porn so much, but I have had problems on all kinds of sites.

I imagine the people here are more educated on being extra cafeful and taking the right security measures to minimize risk, but first of all you should realize that you are not a typical demographic and other people are getting tricked a lot more than you are and dont have the same security set up. Second, you dont necessarily notice the performance drops at first. It still works. If you have a gaming rig your hardware should eat the hit in performance. It does slow down though. You have to take extra steps to defragment, clean the registry, on top of cleaning malware of various sorts. If you just chat and game it might be less of a problem, until somebody sends you a bad email or you click on a link somebody posts. I dont doubt that people here can make Windows workable, but its extra effort/steps in maintenance while linux is extra steps (in some ways) during set up. In other ways even the setup of linux is more convenient, since everything you need is built in and localized.

When you start to have thousands of small files and you have installed and removed large programs and games over and over again, you start to see a drop in performance. It can be minimized by taking simple maintenance steps, but there are other irritating things about Windows, especially if you dont know how to hack your system and use the default settings.....The Black editions are more usable.


If you are good enough you can probably work with any OS, but I dont think they are an ethical company and dont feeling like working around their flaws. I would rather complain about them and use something different, like Ubuntu.



Just because a company has auditors doenst mean you can trust the books. They have these people called accountants and they are very good at their job. Maybe you have noticed a series of scandals involving people cooking the books? Enron? It bankrupted California? It seems likely that most people are not getting caught. A healthy scepticism of the status quo is in order.

[cloyd]

When Microsoft fall. Intel and AMD will fall and a host of other vendor will fall. It will be just like the domino effect. Who will benefit from their failure. Mac, Linux or Unix? If those vendors are smart enough they will start investing on creating hardware and software for Linux/Unix. At least there is some cushion.

I have similar feelings for both MS and WalMart. I don't like either one of them, but at present, don't know how we are going to do without them. I buy Walmart . . . they are very often the only show in town. If WalMart went broke, my home area of Northwest Arkansas would take a terrific hit. Despite the current economic condition, we do better than many others because of WalMart.

Microsoft isn't the only game in town for me. I don't use it any more. But for many who don't have the ability to install Ubuntu on thier own (or just lack the nerve to do it), MS is all they can find.

But after reading the blog, I realize I benefit from the low hardware prices. I feel like I have Apple quality performance with PC hardware price for my limited needs. What happens to hardware prices if Microsoft loses their leadership position in the market?

[Nick_Jinn]

The age of personal computing isnt going to be over if Microsoft declines. No way. Other systems will move in to take their place for home PC and multi-media computing.

Prices might drop actually. We will probably start seeing cheaper and less power hungry arm processors get developed to higher sophistication. ARM often beats intel/AMD on the low end of the end use market, especially in mobile computing. Its a decent chip structure with a lot of potential and good new for Linux and Android.

[neu5eeCh]

Posting this here because the author himself sought comment/help from geeks about what he is saying. The article is long but the gist of his report is that Open Source/Linux is on the ascent and closed source/proprietary systems like Microsoft and Apple are going to fail.

Business Insider-A Fund Manager Tries To Figure Out Whether Microsoft's Business Will Collapse (http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-a-real-chance-microsofts-business-will-simply-collapse-2010-8)

Two thoughts. 1.) Loved reading the article and thanks for posting it. In the aggregate, I think the author made some interesting points.

2.) Just watched an uber-, uber-campy movie (Netflix Live) called "Pyar Impossible". The premise is that a programmer has written an OS that can run all software no matter what the original platform. The OS is called UNITY. The software is stolen and as the geek tries to get it back, he also gets the beautiful girl.

If you watch the movie, just remember... I warned you... it's really, really campy. The Ubuntu logo makes an appearance (repeatedly) and there's an absurd amount of product placement for Apple (ironic).

[Nick_Jinn]

Now what if there was an OS that was ultra light weight, as much eye candy as E17 with the 3d effects of gnome, as stable as unix and could read/write to any file format and play any app for any major OS?

Even if it was an illegal hack, I bet it would be huge.


Something like that could probably be done if copyrights and profits wasnt standing in the way. We are holding ourselves back in the name of profit.

[neu5eeCh]

Now what if there was an OS that was ultra light weight, as much eye candy as E17 with the 3d effects of gnome, as stable as unix and could read/write to any file format and play any app for any major OS?

Even if it was an illegal hack, I bet it would be huge.

Yeah... in the movie, the con artist who steals the software is paid hundreds of milllions of dollars with a 20% stake in the company. Huge is right. Clearly, there were some geeks who had a hand in the movie.

I actually recommend the movie. It has that "cult classic" feel to it.

[donato roque]

I am no prognosticator. And I don't want to add to the pessimism but having a good idea or product isn't an assurance people will share or adopt it.

Still I am hopeful in this age of jailbroken apps (legal in the US)that we are at least seeing the dawn of open, cross-platform, cross-hardware computing. The dawn of end users uncompromising preference for freedom.

[Nick_Jinn]

edit.

[Oxwivi]

Posting this here because the author himself sought comment/help from geeks about what he is saying. The article is long but the gist of his report is that Open Source/Linux is on the ascent and closed source/proprietary systems like Microsoft and Apple are going to fail.

Business Insider-A Fund Manager Tries To Figure Out Whether Microsoft's Business Will Collapse (http://www.businessinsider.com/there-is-a-real-chance-microsofts-business-will-simply-collapse-2010-8)
A well-balanced article, I like it. Can be used to convince users to switch.

[kelvinho]

I like your style Vermont Poet!

I think we are already at the stage where the questions "What do you mean you can do that for free?", and "That looks and acts better than what I pay an outrageous fee for; how much is a copy?" is pretty universal.

The Windows template is bone-dry on good will; each step (program) costs you cash.

Ultimately, the King-Kong virus will make us look to a better way to compute, and it will be here before the next real Flu pandemic.

[Johnsie]

The only thing that could make Microsoft collapse is if some other company produced a better OS and Office suite. Apple are probably the only company in the world close to being able to do this. Linux/Open Source doesn't have enough financial investment to produce well detailed, high quality applications with a decent GUI. They also don't have enough financial resources to get their appilcations taught in schools and colleges. That's why OOO and Evolution has never been able to compete with MS Office and Outlook. Even if developers were able to make OOO and Evolution better (and that would take quite some work)they would not have the necessary financial resources to educate people how to use their software. At the moment most open source software is at a very low standard when it comes to quality.

[KiwiNZ]

The only thing that could make Microsoft collapse is if some other company produced a better OS and Office suite. Apple are probably the only company in the world close to being able to do this. Linux/Open Source doesn't have enough financial investment to produce well detailed, high quality applications with a decent GUI. They also don't have enough financial resources to get their appilcations taught in schools and colleges. That's why OOO and Evolution has never been able to compete with MS Office and Outlook. Even if developers were able to make OOO and Evolution better (and that would take quite some work)they would not have the necessary financial resources to educate people how to use their software. At the moment most open source software is at a very low standard when it comes to quality.

+1

I would also add they have a huge piggy bank. Their reserves would see them through several recessions.

[Dr. C]

The only thing that could make Microsoft collapse is if some other company produced a better OS and Office suite. Apple are probably the only company in the world close to being able to do this. Linux/Open Source doesn't have enough financial investment to produce well detailed, high quality applications with a decent GUI. They also don't have enough financial resources to get their appilcations taught in schools and colleges. That's why OOO and Evolution has never been able to compete with MS Office and Outlook. Even if developers were able to make OOO and Evolution better (and that would take quite some work)they would not have the necessary financial resources to educate people how to use their software. At the moment most open source software is at a very low standard when it comes to quality.

Apple never has and never will be a threat to Microsoft. In order for Apple to be any kind of threat to Microsoft it would have to radically change its business model and companies simply don't do that. What Apple has been very good at, over the past 30+ years, is at being number two in the desktop market. This is again repeating itself in the mobile market.

The real threat to Microsoft actually comes form FLOSS and GNU / Linux, in what is shaping out to be a protracted war of attrition that may well last for twenty years or more. One only has to see how IE has lost market share to Firefox over the last decade to see what is in store in the future for Microsoft. The one thing that will paradoxically slow down Microsoft's decline is software piracy and sites like The Pirate Bay. OpenOffice may not be 100% feature identical to Microsoft Office but it can easily beat a 30 day trail of Microsoft Office or Microsoft Works. The real question is: Can OpenOffice beat the TPB version of Microsoft Office?

As for Apple it could still be number two to GNU / Linux after the eventual collapse of Microsoft.