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spydeyrch
July 29th, 2010, 11:16 PM
So I was thinking the other day about where Linux will be in 5/10/20 years. I was also thinking about where I would like it to be in 5/10/20 years.

I read somewhere recently that Canonical has of yet to be profitable. So how much longer could they keep going as unprofitable before they had to close up shop? What would the implications be if Canonical ever closed and didn't continue Ubuntu?

What do you guys think?

-Where will linux be in 5/10/20 years?

-Where would you like to see it in 5/10/20 years?

-Do you think that Ubuntu will still be around in 5/10/20 years?

-Why do you think that?

Just curious about what others think. :D

-Spydey :KS

jerenept
July 29th, 2010, 11:19 PM
Implications of Canonical going under: Fedora

What I want:
5yrs: i want to see linux more popular as a workstation in large businesses.
10yrs: gaming improvement (Steam is a start)
20 yrs; IDK.... the opportunities are endless

phrostbyte
July 29th, 2010, 11:22 PM
I don't like to make predictions. But if I compare Linux in 2000 to 2010, as a desktop, it is night and day. Everything is more advanced and professional. We didn't really gain much marketshare though.

I don't know what will happen in 10 years from now, but I hope Linux will continue to advance and pwn all other OSes in every way. :)

Legendary_Bibo
July 29th, 2010, 11:31 PM
Canonical is going under? That kind of blows, but a Phoenix always rises from the ashes.

5 years: Vast improvements on hardware compatibility, usabilty, easibility, speedibility, and awesomeibility.
10 years: Being used by my children
20 years: Dominating the market

alexfish
July 29th, 2010, 11:39 PM
So I was thinking the other day about where Linux will be in 5/10/20 years. I was also thinking about where I would like it to be in 5/10/20 years.

I read somewhere recently that Canonical has of yet to be profitable. So how much longer could they keep going as unprofitable before they had to close up shop? What would the implications be if Canonical ever closed and didn't continue Ubuntu?

What do you guys think?

-Where will linux be in 5/10/20 years?

-Where would you like to see it in 5/10/20 years?

-Do you think that Ubuntu will still be around in 5/10/20 years?

-Why do you think that?

Just curious about what others think. :D

-Spydey :KS

Don't think , just do

http://charltonb.typepad.com/weblog/2010/07/canonicalubuntu-floating-the-cloud.html

spydeyrch
July 30th, 2010, 12:10 AM
Don't think , just do

http://charltonb.typepad.com/weblog/2010/07/canonicalubuntu-floating-the-cloud.html


Wow!!! That is actually quite interesting. Thanks for pointing that out. the article I read said that Canonical has yet to be profitable. But the info from the link that you posted is good news. I am glad to see that they are starting to branch out to make some money.

-Spydey :KS

Jaydon H
July 30th, 2010, 01:07 AM
Implications of Canonical going under: Mass suicide and an immediate decrease of Linux's market share for PCs, until they find another company to co-develop operating systems with.

Linux in 5 Years: Linux will come as a pre-loadable operating system for new computers in most stores.

Linux in 10 Years: Linux will take up 25% of the market share of primary Operating Systems on Personal Computers.

Linux in 20 Years: Linux will take up 75% of all server systems and 98% of 3rd-party programs will be compatible with Linux.

I think that Linux will last at least another 30 years, maybe more. It's used on most of the world's most powerful computers, and is already becoming more popular as a server/mainframe operating system.

jerenept
July 30th, 2010, 01:10 AM
Linux has lots of server marketshare; that's no prob.

Linux+BSD probably have 75-80% of servers (Web servers).

themarker0
July 30th, 2010, 01:13 AM
5 years. 20 second full machine boot including bois.
10 years. 10 second full boot including bois
20 years. instant start up.

Tibuda
July 30th, 2010, 01:16 AM
5 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)
10 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)
20 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)

NMFTM
July 30th, 2010, 01:19 AM
Linux+BSD probably have 75-80% of servers (Web servers).
Apache has about 65% market share for web servers. Although using Apache doesn't necessarily correlate with using Linux, I'd venture to guess that probably 80% of Apache servers are running on some Unix-like system.

And that's despite the fact that a lot of schools (like mine) spend the majority of their time teaching networkers how to use Windows Server instead of Linux. If schools actually spent an equal amount of time teaching both Windows and Linux, Linux's marketshare would probably be higher.

It seems like Linux is slowly but surely succeeding in the world even though it seems like it has almost everything (except the quality of the software) going against it. Like software patents.

Dustin2128
July 30th, 2010, 01:32 AM
as of now, linux's rise is more of a creep than a flood. However, once we attain something like 5-10% market share, I'm guessing the major manufactures will all start making software for and hardware compatible with GNU/Linux. That's where I'd like it to stay too. I don't want an OS monoculture. No matter what OS it is, monocultures are a bad idea.

rjbl
July 30th, 2010, 06:21 PM
Difficult to forecast with a straight-face, I got my estimate of the future potential of the personal computer right in about 1984 but hopelessly underestimated the rate at which it became predominant in computing. I dismissed the Internet as merely 'InterNerd' in '89 and had my breath taken away by the speed and power that grew on the World Wide Web in the middle nineties. So my forecasts need to be treated with a lot of caution.

Firstly I don't see GNU/Linux going away, it is very well-matured, very widely deployed and its roots in UNIX go back forever. I don't see the community which has produced it disappearing or losing interest and commitment so I confidently expect GNU/Linux to be a strong presence in twenty years time. I am far from convinced that Windows will be around in 20 years, except in ageing legacy corporation systems. Microsoft has found it difficult to impose the consumer market lifecycle upon the business world. Most corporates really cannot contemplate hardware and OS replacement every 3 - 5 years. The business world rejected proprietary UNIX in the early nineties, in favour of Windows, but are likely to migrate back to 'free' UNIX over the next 5 - 20 years as Windows declines. Inevitably the 'free' UNIX of choice is to be GNU/Linux. It is by far the biggest player in that town.

Which will be the favoured distros? Can't really say. I guess that there will be Fedora project available - because it fills a very big need for a developers' platform in GNU/Linux world. The consumer sector of Userworld will be served by desktop/laptop systems, such as Ubuntu. The consumer desktops that have been developed over the last five years or so are likely to be with us for the foreseeable future, out to the twenty year point and beyond. Canonical's future is a distributor of GNU/Linux is not forecastable but from its huge contribution so far it is reasonable to guess that Ubuntu 30.04 could well be a cherished part of the intellectual scenery.

Only my tuppence worth.

ATB
rjbl

juancarlospaco
July 30th, 2010, 06:24 PM
-Where will linux be in 5/10/20 years?

-Where would you like to see it in 5/10/20 years?


...Here ! (http://www.kernel.org/)

Paqman
July 30th, 2010, 08:13 PM
What would the implications be if Canonical ever closed and didn't continue Ubuntu?


Canonical supports Ubuntu, but they don't own it. The project would undoubtedly suffer from the loss of paid devs, but would continue to be developed and supported by the community.

samalex
July 30th, 2010, 09:04 PM
I personally think Linux is secondary to where hardware will be in 10 years. Look 10 years ago, most computers were still bulky and laptops were sub-par to desktops. Now you have the same power in a desktop that you have in a laptop, and handheld computers are inching the same direction.

I think in 10 years I think most people will have a single device about the size of a deck of cards that IS their computer and does everything. They might have a terminal at home, work, car, etc that it can connect/dock to, but it holds everything and is always connected to the Internet.

Problem though is will these devices be open source or independent or will we be tied even more closely to the carriers as we are now. My opinion has always been that our personal devices need to be 100% independent from any carrier... and I see that becoming a standard in 10 years.

As for Linux, it'll be the OS that drives all this ---

Sam

alexandari
July 30th, 2010, 09:06 PM
Linux will continue to grow until the world ends....and I don't think that is going to be in the near future. It already surpases Windows in so many ways...you just wait :)

Tibuda
July 30th, 2010, 11:36 PM
...Here ! (http://www.kernel.org/)

5 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)
10 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)
20 years: here (http://www.kernel.org/)

:)

spydeyrch
August 2nd, 2010, 05:47 PM
I personally think Linux is secondary to where hardware will be in 10 years. Look 10 years ago, most computers were still bulky and laptops were sub-par to desktops. Now you have the same power in a desktop that you have in a laptop, and handheld computers are inching the same direction.

I think in 10 years I think most people will have a single device about the size of a deck of cards that IS their computer and does everything. They might have a terminal at home, work, car, etc that it can connect/dock to, but it holds everything and is always connected to the Internet.

Problem though is will these devices be open source or independent or will we be tied even more closely to the carriers as we are now. My opinion has always been that our personal devices need to be 100% independent from any carrier... and I see that becoming a standard in 10 years.

As for Linux, it'll be the OS that drives all this ---

Sam


I would love to see that in 10 years and see that it is happening slowly but surely. Hopefully Ubuntu will still be around by then.

-Spydey :KS

V for Vincent
August 2nd, 2010, 06:31 PM
My guess is that, in 10 years, we could have a 10 percent market share on the desktop. I don't think Linux'll ever truly dominate the desktop market, but 10 percent is significant and enough to be taken into account by a lot of developers.

Naiki Muliaina
August 2nd, 2010, 06:58 PM
Never above 2% ^^

I feel that by the time Linux gets anywhere in the desktop wars, something else awesome will come along and knock everything else out the water. Linux has been 'getting there' for to long IMHO.

The upside is for me at least, at this moment in time, Linux (namely Ubuntu) is the best operating system for me. Love my tux ^^

jerenept
August 2nd, 2010, 08:53 PM
I have a feeling that Google will carry this out:

Chrome is to Chromium as Chrome OS is to Linux.

It's going to be very popular, but at what cost?

forrestcupp
August 2nd, 2010, 10:18 PM
I don't like to make predictions. But if I compare Linux in 2000 to 2010, as a desktop, it is night and day. Everything is more advanced and professional. We didn't really gain much marketshare though.

That's a good way to put it. It may be awesome, but it probably won't gain any market share.

I think one big hindrance of Linux is that it is run by a bunch of geeks who will always think that people aren't real Linux users unless they master the command line.

In 20 years, Windows and Mac will be displaying in a vivid, full color, life size hologram with resonating deep 360 degrees surround sound, and controlled by the mind, and Linux people will still be sitting at a desktop typing commands in a console.

JustinR
August 2nd, 2010, 10:22 PM
I believe, according to Mark Shuttleworth's predictions, that once Canonical becomes profitable (revenue hits $30 million dollars) then it shouldn't go under for quite some time.

It will continue on.

But if Canonical every goes under their is an emergency trust called Ubuntu Foundation set at $10 million.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubuntu_Foundation



The Ubuntu Foundation is a purpose trust founded by Mark Shuttleworth and Canonical Ltd. to ensure the long-term maintenance of the Ubuntu Linux distribution independently of the commercial activities of Canonical Ltd. Its initial funding commitment is $10M.[1]

Its current advisory board is made up of chairman Mark Shuttleworth, founder of Canonical Ltd., and representatives of the Ubuntu Community Council and the Ubuntu Technical Board.[1]

Although it was originally announced that the Ubuntu Foundation would employ core members of the Ubuntu community[2] as of 2008, the Foundation remains dormant. Mark Shuttleworth describes it as an "emergency fund" in the event that Canonical's involvement in the Ubuntu project ends.

Frak
August 2nd, 2010, 11:45 PM
10 years: 2.3%
20 years: obsolete