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Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 01:50 AM
Please don't flame me for having an honest concern. After all I am a human like you, and Ubuntu forum is a place for human beings, much like the saying "Linux for Human beings" or I suppose anyway.

I am wondering, do you believe cloud computing will one day be our only solution for computing in the future and all we'll use are terminal-like machines to access all our data stored at 3rd party servers with no local hardware software computing and storage? I sure hope not.

What about gaming? Services like OnLive are cloud gaming solutions aiming to kill the consoles and PC gaming alike, and if the future of gaming is solely based on server-side and online environments, then looks like I'll jump ship on gaming all-together. That day will be a very dreadful day. I want to own what I pay 10-60 dollars for instead of relying on SaaS solutions for all my gaming needs.

Same with personal computing, I do not want to be at the mercy of corporate services for all my personal data and entertainment. I am all for co-existence between cloud computing and local computing. Facebook, Twitter and web-based email is definitely a co-existance. But for me, local computing or bust. I will NOT entrust a corporation to store all my data over using my own hardware. I am sure others will agree.

Your thoughts?

Sources:
http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,2845,2343703,00.asp
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2960816/VDI-The-Future-of-Desktop-Computing
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/multimedia/display/20100514024633_Cloud_Based_Streaming_Services_Will _Not_Replace_Consoles_in_Years_Nintendo.html

Cuddles McKitten
June 29th, 2010, 02:05 AM
I'd bet that an appreciable chunk of the population will choose to go that route, but personal computers will never go away. It's mainly going to be aimed at people who just use the computer for simple things like word processing and internet browsing as well as those who travel a great deal and want data to be available wherever they may be.

Even assuming internet and processor speed make it reasonable, as an extreme example, for people to play video games run on a central server, there are always going to be tech nuts who want to code, build, host their own servers, etc. And of course, there are people who are high on the paranoia spectrum who will be concerned that government reverse vampires are intercepting their Hanna Montana/Star Trek slash fan fiction.

madjr
June 29th, 2010, 02:19 AM
with everyone on 5mb+ connections, who knows

and ChromeOS will be pushing it earlier

microsoft is kinda worried about cloud computing killing the windows monopoly, but also embracing it because it means the end of piracy on their products, which could mean better earnings in the long shot

Competition will have a better chance in the cloud too.

and with onlive real time streaming, videogames will finally be what they were supposed to be "video" games

FuturePilot
June 29th, 2010, 02:20 AM
no

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 02:32 AM
with everyone on 5mb+ connections, who knows

and ChromeOS will be pushing it earlier

microsoft is kinda worried about cloud computing killing the windows monopoly, but also embracing it because it means the end of piracy on their products, which could mean better earnings in the long shot

Competition will have a better chance in the cloud too.
Isn't ChromeOS aimed for Netbooks, rather than desktops and notebook hardware? Netbooks alone are aimed for a completely different niche than say higher end hardware owners. The small space in the SSDs are simply too little for file hogs that use desktops and notebooks. Lugging an external HDD can defeat the purpose of the netbook's mobility, so a cloud is a better solution for mobility. But for the more hardcore users, cloud computing can be useful for backups, syncing to other machines, and sharing, but being forced to using it for everything would be their worst nightmare.

Not to mention you'll pay yet another bill to use it should your cloud computing be a significance in power, vs. buying hardware of your own and use that without being under the mercy of corporate greed.

@madjr, excellent points. I suppose the target audience for cloud computing for everything is for the casuals, which not all of us are casual computer users. I'm sure even some casual computer users prefer their own hardware. Just hope it doesn't cross this line.

ubunterooster
June 29th, 2010, 02:55 AM
There will be two groups; I for one will remain firmly tethered

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 03:40 AM
Found this article.
http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2010/06/21/dell-cloud-gaming/

If more companies follow suit, it's the future, unfortunately...

ubunterooster
June 29th, 2010, 03:44 AM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/f/ff/Windows_Azure_logo.png/250px-Windows_Azure_logo.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Windows_Azure_logo.png) Developer Microsoft Website Official website (http://www.microsoft.com/windowsazure/)

VS

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/d/d0/Chrome_Logo.svg/64px-Chrome_Logo.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chrome_Logo.svg) http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9a/Chrome_OS_screenshot_sdres_0001_App-Menu.png/300px-Chrome_OS_screenshot_sdres_0001_App-Menu.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chrome_OS_screenshot_sdres_0001_App-Menu.png)

VS

file:///tmp/moz-screenshot.pngfile:///tmp/moz-screenshot-1.png


http://www.readwriteweb.com/images/peppermint_logo.jpg






Will be very interesting!

aphatak
June 29th, 2010, 03:53 AM
I don't think 'cloud computing' can kill desktops. There have been attempts to kill the desktop - remember 'thin client'? Remember the whole business started with mainframes and dumb terminals?

These decisions are made by ordinary folks who plonk down their hard-earned cash for computers (thank God), not by a single solitary System Architect, for whom control is the ultimate objective. The ordinary folks decide if they want one monolithic set of applications or a set of competing ones.

Long live fat client!

BrokenKingpin
June 29th, 2010, 04:00 AM
Nope

Austin25
June 29th, 2010, 04:02 AM
If so, full pc processing could be brought to smartphones. Eventually someone would hack the wireless communication. There would be many (of us) who would keep regular pc's for security purposes. It would almost be like the movie surrogates. Very interesting thought.

Ric95
June 29th, 2010, 04:35 AM
It won't. Like aphatak pointed out, it has been tried several times before, but the guys who own servers and want to do this seriously underestimate how diverse peoples needs are.
To do it, they'd have to target the market with very predictable needs. It would be comparable to TV viewers some of whom have rabbit ear antennas and five channels while the real computer users are like cable/satellite viewers.

Timmer1240
June 29th, 2010, 05:01 AM
I will never go to cloud computing I like having my own system and maintaining it locally.

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 05:04 AM
It won't. Like aphatak pointed out, it has been tried several times before, but the guys who own servers and want to do this seriously underestimate how diverse peoples needs are.
To do it, they'd have to target the market with very predictable needs. It would be comparable to TV viewers some of whom have rabbit ear antennas and five channels while the real computer users are like cable/satellite viewers.
No matter what, I will always stick to the desktop side of things. I usually buy from Dell and HP, but in the future I will buy custom hardware if big name corporations stop manufacturing computers and off to smart-phones and cloud services.

Custom hardware will likely be the future of physical desktops eh?

Now for game consoles like the PlayStation, I hope Sony, MS and Nintendo won't force gamers to buy their services if they were to continue. I can see cloud gaming useful as optional, and very useful for demos and rent on-demand. 'Buying' the games in cloud environment is crossing the fine line. You're not buying a thing, but a service to use a game (SaaS), at the same price of a game you buy at a store that you actually own and has monetary value to resell if no longer needed.

Much of society, unfortunately, values convenience over freedom and ignore other important advantages in the long run.

aphatak
June 29th, 2010, 05:14 AM
Another thought - the purveyors of centralized computing capabilities want a continuous revenue, which they will get by providing services. The end users want to pay once, and own the use of the equipment. Cloud computing, thin client, dumb terminals, or whatever other name the revenue model hides behind, end-users will likely fight it. Ultimately, end users are the people who pay, so they will rule.
I hope!

chessnerd
June 29th, 2010, 05:24 AM
My friend, I share some of these concerns, but I don't think that the PC will ever totally go away.

It has been suggested several times that, with the prevalence of debit cards and online transactions, cash might one day go away, but I don't think it will.

My semi-apocalyptic vision of the future of cash and computers:

I see a future in which things like "cash" and "local hardware" will fade away, but will never go away completely. Privacy advocates will fight hard for them, sure, but the main reason they will stay is because of crime. After all, dealers don't sell drugs with PayPal and a gang isn't going to store information on Google servers.

I think the media will begin to portray such things in the same manner that torrents are portrayed: dishonest and criminal. Yes, they have legitimate purposes, but they are rarely used that way. You will be judged for having a PC in the land of tomorrow.

Probably not, but it could happen...

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 05:24 AM
Another thought - the purveyors of centralized computing capabilities want a continuous revenue, which they will get by providing services. The end users want to pay once, and own the use of the equipment. Cloud computing, thin client, dumb terminals, or whatever other name the revenue model hides behind, end-users will likely fight it. Ultimately, end users are the people who pay, so they will rule.
I hope!
OnLive might be a good example on how people will respond to cloud computing. I mean playing state-of-the-art games on full settings on a smart-phone or your old Win98 computer hooked up to the network would draw a lot of gamers into the service and the OnLive company will milk money from these paying subscribers to 'improve' their service. They, then, try so hard to kill the console and PC gaming by proving themselves to be the future of gaming.

But these will be the casual gamers that couldn't careless. Us hardcore gamers will likely call OnLive baloney, right?

chessnerd
June 29th, 2010, 05:32 AM
OnLive might be a good example on how people will respond to cloud computing. I mean playing state-of-the-art games on full settings on a smart-phone or your old Win98 computer hooked up to the network would draw a lot of gamers into the service and the OnLive company will milk money from these paying subscribers to 'improve' their service. They, then, try so hard to kill the console and PC gaming by proving themselves to be the future of gaming.

But these will be the casual gamers that couldn't careless. Us hardcore gamers will likely call OnLive baloney, right?

Gaming is hard to pin down in the future. I believe both type of games, online and offline, will exist together. There are advantages to each:

Online advantages -

Don't need to upgrade hardware as often
Play with others easily
Could be cheaper
More payment options (monthly payments, rentals, etc.)

Offline advantages -

Don't need Internet access
You can't "lose your connection"
Allows for more advanced games on good hardware

Personally, I love offline gaming because I don't need an Internet connection and I never need to worry about my router or ISP crapping out on me. If the Internet becomes more pervasive, and connectivity becomes more reliable, then maybe those concerns will go away, but there is still something nice about putting a CD in the tray to play a game...

aysiu
June 29th, 2010, 05:38 AM
I don't think that the PC will ever totally go away. And the typewriter will never totally go away. And the handwritten letter will never totally go away. And non-Google search engines will never totally go away. And LPs will never totally go away.

It doesn't really matter whether desktop computers ever totally go away or not.

What matters is what is mainstream, the most commonly used. If only people on the Ubuntu Forums and a handful of Windows and Mac power users use desktops, and everybody else uses "cloud computing," then the cloud has for the most part replaced physical desktops even if desktops haven't totally gone away.

Hey, I still every now and then handwrite letters to my wife or to my friends. The primary means of communication is email and Facebook, though. You can't honestly believe the forum members here are representative, demographically, of the larger computing populace.

KiwiNZ
June 29th, 2010, 05:48 AM
I am absolutely committed to sitting on the fence on this one

mr clark25
June 29th, 2010, 05:56 AM
if i could find some cloud/cluster software that is *easy* to configure, i already you be using a cloud/cluster as a personal computer...

theres only one problem... i dont think i have any programs that would take advantage of multiple processing threads...


still, a small cloud/cluster would be nice...

i really want to get started with cloud computing... any advise on where to start?

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 06:01 AM
if i could find some cloud/cluster software that is *easy* to configure, i already you be using a cloud/cluster as a personal computer...

theres only one problem... i dont think i have any programs that would take advantage of multiple processing threads...


still, a small cloud/cluster would be nice...

i really want to get started with cloud computing... any advise on where to start?
Care to ask that in your very own thread instead of stealing mine?

chessnerd
June 29th, 2010, 06:01 AM
And the typewriter will never totally go away. And the handwritten letter will never totally go away. And non-Google search engines will never totally go away. And LPs will never totally go away.
Very true. My high school had a single typewriter for the entire building. My aunt hand writes a letter to my grandfather every month. LPs are making a comeback in some areas. But yeah, they aren't common by any means.


What matters is what is mainstream, the most commonly used. If only people on the Ubuntu Forums and a handful of Windows and Mac power users use desktops, and everybody else uses "cloud computing," then the cloud has for the most part replaced physical desktops even if desktops haven't totally gone away.
Then Windows is what matters. We who use Linux on the desktop defy the mainstream every day.


You can't honestly believe the forum members here are representative, demographically, of the larger computing populace.
I would never suggest such a thing. The day the Ubuntu Forums become a good sample for the people of the world is the day that Ubuntu and Linux become as ubiquitous as Windows and the "Nerd" party controls the US Congress while the "Geeks" command the British Parliament.

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 06:11 AM
Another possibility for the future, if cloud computing will be our future, it could also mean many people will be able to own a cloud using their own hardware aka the private cloud and have all our smart-phones connect to our hardware on the go. Sounds like something interesting. This will also mean we'll need new hardware on the market. This would feel very empowering to depend on ourselves instead of services and corporate greed for cloud computing. Discuss.

Knight5227
June 29th, 2010, 03:12 PM
Did you know PSN has almost double the registered users than Xbox Live, or more anyway? PS3 sold less, and has more members. Even half of the registered Live are Silver users, which means no online play unless you pay. Obviously a lot of people will get angry at a paid subscription future of gaming if it really heads down this road. The hardcore crowd will want their own hardware because they want their freedom to use a video game without having to be at the mercy of corporate greed.

However, I suppose it does not mean local hardware and systems will one day become obsolete in favor of cloud-based environments and SaaS gaming. A lot of gamers will jump the ship, including me. I am not supporting OnLive, and will not support other forms of SaaS gaming in the future.

Once gaming goes to cloud computing, so will everything else.

ubunterooster
June 29th, 2010, 03:16 PM
Did you know PSN has almost double the registered users than Xbox Live, or more anyway? PS3 sold less, and has more members. Even half of the registered Live are Silver users, which means no online play unless you pay. Obviously a lot of people will get angry at a paid subscription future of gaming if it really heads down this road. The hardcore crowd will want their own hardware because they want their freedom to use a video game without having to be at the mercy of corporate greed.

However, I suppose it does not mean local hardware and systems will one day become obsolete in favor of cloud-based environments and SaaS gaming. A lot of gamers will jump the ship, including me. I am not supporting OnLive, and will not support other forms of SaaS gaming in the future.

Once gaming goes to cloud computing, so will everything else.
I disagree, many (but not all) gamers are those who do not know or care how they get the entertainment, but that they get it.

Royle Lindsey
July 1st, 2010, 09:39 AM
Hi..Today, cloud computing is poised to address the needs of the same market, based on a revolution of new technologies, significant unused computing capacity in corporate data centers, and the development of a highly capable Internet data communications infrastructure. The economies of scale of delivering computing from a centralized, shared infrastructure have set the expectation among customers that cloud-computing costs will be significantly lower than those incurred from providing their own computing.

cj.surrusco
July 1st, 2010, 03:17 PM
Is there any possible middle ground? Or, are we stuck with absolutely everything stuck on servers? Would it make sense to store only some data on the internet servers, while leaving important data on a local system? Maybe I'm just being paranoid about corporations being in possession of all of my files.

You would also have to consider the hardware needs of this process. The companies that plan on doing this will not be able to sell cloud computing if they can't provide it to people while they are on the go. Many people use mobile broadband to access e-mail and web browsing while away from networks. To be able to stream all of the necessary data for cloud computing we would need at least an 100 mb/s connection to rival local HDDs, which sounds impossible using mobile broadband.

Even using wireless or wired connections, 100 megabit connection sounds pretty difficult at this point in time. I'm sure that this technology will improve to these speeds in the near future, but that would mean providing wi-fi connections all around the world, or at least wherever people can get mobile broadband signals right now.

I don't think that we should be afraid of cloud computing taking over until technology is able to provide 100 mb/s speed to people wherever they need it.

forrestcupp
July 1st, 2010, 03:49 PM
No, cloud computing will not ever replace our physical desktops or laptops with local files/apps.

There will always be a fight between the software industry and the ISP's who want to cap bandwidth. The ISP's are the ones who stand in the way of the cloud, and they always will.

I hate bandwidth capping, but I can also understand why they don't want to be forced to continually give us more for less. They're in the business of making money, not advancing the cloud.

When the entire world is offered internet connections at speeds as fast as our hard drives for only $5.00/month including 1 TB of free storage space, then we can all completely go with the cloud. ;)

Ender985
July 1st, 2010, 05:34 PM
I've been waiting for it for some time now. My take in this will be to build my own private cloud, to get all the benefits of centralized data storage and processing power without handing anything to the corporations.

The only thing we are lacking is a faster and omnipresent internet connection. Then, you could videotape non-stop your whole 5-day holiday trip to Maldivas, by streaming the video via wifi directly into your cloud HDD, without worrying about quality or running out of memory sticks. Or play any computer game via your dummy-iPad. The possibilites are endless!

koenn
July 1st, 2010, 07:41 PM
There will always be a fight between the software industry and the ISP's who want to cap bandwidth. The ISP's are the ones who stand in the way of the cloud, and they always will.

not really.
There's quite a bit of surplus capacity : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_fibre

capping is stricktly a commercial decision: you get limited speed/volume for a given price, and you can buy extra if you want to, or choose a (more expensive) plan with better speeds/more volume, and so on.

If anything, ISP's will want cloud computing to happen : it will make them indispensible.