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McRat
June 19th, 2010, 12:26 AM
The operating system will resemble a web-browser in design. Resources and applications will be treated as sites. This will mean all forms of hardware would have a common user interface, and there will choices in O/S that aren't related to the platform.

Operating systems will all be free, paid for by advertising mechanisms and ISP kickbacks.

ISP's will give out tablet computers like they do with cellphones today.

There will be a visual mouse that tracks head/eye/hand movement via the camera(s). This is a software trick, as the hardware is capable today.

Most software will accept audio commands or input with excellent results. Again, software only.

Computers will turn on and off instantly. HDD's will be rare.

Most TV sets will be computers and have cameras and microphones built in.


Any others?

madjr
June 19th, 2010, 01:04 AM
some computer things i predict popular 2020:

google chromeOS
ubuntu light 20.04
Onlive type streaming 3d gaming / movies rental (http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=1511061)
google tv
boxee box

ubunterooster
June 19th, 2010, 01:05 AM
Laptops will be replaced by tablets, Desktops by All-in Ones, and upgrading hardware will be rare

JDShu
June 19th, 2010, 02:49 AM
We'll be jacking into the internet cyberpunk style.

yester64
June 19th, 2010, 02:53 AM
Apple share of computer by 20%. Controls now MP3, magazines, movies and Television.
Still no keyboardless computer in sight.
Voice Recogntion still bad as it still misunderstands 'open document' as 'o pen d*** u men'.
Linux market share by about 2%.
The 40 TB Harddrive just got released.
Computer now managed to be downsized to the size of a box of malboro.
MS Office Hades released with double ribbon and a option to shred documents before printing.
First rollout computer released with a 11" display.

These are my not so serious prediction. Well, who knows maybe they become true.

ubunterooster
June 19th, 2010, 02:58 AM
Linux market share by about 2%.

Actually, Linux is rising 25% per year, expected to be at 90% in 2023

lisati
June 19th, 2010, 02:58 AM
For myself, if haven't dropped dead in the meantime, I might have actually learned enough 32-bit ASM programming to make a useful program, about the same time that 128-bit processors are the norm.

Failboat88
June 19th, 2010, 03:08 AM
Thin or zero clients for everyone, that are portable touch screen tablets; server computing as a service will become mainstream, maybe bundled with an isp contract.

People will own robots.

yester64
June 19th, 2010, 03:09 AM
For myself, if haven't dropped dead in the meantime, I might have actually learned enough 32-bit ASM programming to make a useful program, about the same time that 128-bit processors are the norm.

Honestly, i think they will drop the 128 bit and go right over to 256 bit. And hardware is there, but the software is not. Like always.. doh.

phrostbyte
June 19th, 2010, 03:21 AM
Year of the Linux desktop. :)

Letrazzrot
June 19th, 2010, 03:25 AM
For myself, if haven't dropped dead in the meantime, I might have actually learned enough 32-bit ASM programming to make a useful program, about the same time that 128-bit processors are the norm.

Maybe, just maybe, computers might be using qubits by then (though I doubt it would be so soon). If that's the case, quantum computer software design looks like it may be rather challenging: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing

As if multithreading was complicated enough, now us poor programmers have to worry about entanglement too?

alexfish
June 19th, 2010, 03:42 AM
For myself, if haven't dropped dead in the meantime, I might have actually learned enough 32-bit ASM programming to make a useful program, about the same time that 128-bit processors are the norm.


Hope ya got a good memory for the op codes if not you will need a another computer just to store them :lolflag:
if they can get mini connections then I predict the average desktop will be about the size of a matchbox, can't imagine trying to handle anything smaller, and run an a solar cell, don't know if there is any solution to the keyboard, may be there will be a throw back to the 70's and 80's where the computer was inside the keyboard. also can't wait for 3d monitors; :p

lostinxlation
June 19th, 2010, 03:49 AM
Honestly, I don't see any major breakthrough happening next 10 years. All the technology we have now are there 10 years ago and we still stick to the 10 or more year old technology.
Market shares of software or hardware may be different, but from tech point of view, nothing special will happen.

Neezer
June 19th, 2010, 04:00 AM
Actually, Linux is rising 25% per year, expected to be at 90% in 2023
[/LIST]

yesterday I had 1 beer, today I had 2. by the end of the month I'll be drinking a few kegs a day! I love extrapolating on current trends.

[/sarcasm]

I'm pretty sure that Moore's law cannot continue. We keep getting smaller and smaller transistors and we're starting to run into the physical limit of size there....the standard chip in the 90's grew not only in the number of transistors that were on it, but the speed (MHz) increased pretty quickly through the 90's as well. We've been stuck at around 3GHz stock for most higher end processors for a while now. Sure they've added more cores, but the speed isn't continuing. I'd expect the size/number of cores on a die to stay roughly the same for at least another ten years.


but who knows.....

dtfinch
June 19th, 2010, 04:06 AM
Think back to 2000, and how you imagined the computers of 2010 would be like.

If the last 20 years are any indication, desktops of the future will boot in 1-3 minutes, and most software will perform noticeably slow but adequately, having features comparable to software today.

lisati
June 19th, 2010, 04:21 AM
Each of the x86/AMD based machines I've had over the years has been an improvement over its predecessor in some respect. The 133MHz my older desktop runs at is a vast improvement over the 1MHz of the Z80 machine I used to have and which died with an acrid puff of blue smoke after plugging it in to the TV. I think others have commented elsewhere how the bloat seems to increase to meet or even exceed the machine's capabilities.

PhilGil
June 19th, 2010, 04:27 AM
Laptop/desktop computers are not "sexy" and profit margins are small, so I'm not expecting a lot of innovation. I also don't see the current OS/desktop software model going away any time soon (no matter how much Google, Microsoft, et al would like us to rent our software from them and run it online). I do see more users opting for cheaper, lower-powered, greener machines. Also, SSD's will increase in popularity, but will remain more expensive than traditional HDD's.

Like the last 10 years, smart devices will be where the R&D dollars are spent. Smart phones and tablets will be become smarter and more capable, but Im not sure if they'll do much more than they currently are capable of. The only revolutionary device I see coming in the next 10-20 years is a wearable computer with an HUD projected onto a set of glasses or directly onto the retina.

McRat
June 19th, 2010, 04:28 AM
Going by trends:

Printers will fall to under $1 US, but refill cartridges will be $199 each.

AT&T will finally have customers with a negative BAUD rate. It will suck the data out of their computers.

You will need a minimum bandwidth of 20mbps just to keep a constant flow of updates to your computer. It will finally eliminate viruses, as there will be no bandwidth left to download them.

Steve Jobs head will enlarge to the point where it is visible from space.

Microsoft will finally run out of ways to hide the system controls on Windows, so it will just remove them altogether.

It will be discovered the Win20 Stripper Trailerpark Starter Edition won't even run Solataire, much less any apps.

Desktops will get so artsy, that warnings will have to be put on them:

"Prolonged Exposure to Cute Kitten Desktop v5 can permanently alter your sexual orientation and/or reduce sperm count."

Expert systems and artificial intelligence in desktops will bring personal computing to a halt. The computers will all be busy exchanging circuit-board pOrn with each other.

kamaboko
June 19th, 2010, 05:23 AM
The Pirate Bay will still be alive and kicking. It'll come out with its own model of computer comprised of stolen parts from manufacturers from all over the world. The OS, stolen of course, will be modified to have a direct feed into the catalogs of all the worlds music and movie distributors.

Lucradia
June 19th, 2010, 05:54 AM
ReactOS will finally be in RC stage.

wilee-nilee
June 19th, 2010, 06:29 AM
Going by trends:

Printers will fall to under $1 US, but refill cartridges will be $199 each.

AT&T will finally have customers with a negative BAUD rate. It will suck the data out of their computers.

You will need a minimum bandwidth of 20mbps just to keep a constant flow of updates to your computer. It will finally eliminate viruses, as there will be no bandwidth left to download them.

Steve Jobs head will enlarge to the point where it is visible from space.

Microsoft will finally run out of ways to hide the system controls on Windows, so it will just remove them altogether.

It will be discovered the Win20 Stripper Trailerpark Starter Edition won't even run Solataire, much less any apps.

Desktops will get so artsy, that warnings will have to be put on them:

"Prolonged Exposure to Cute Kitten Desktop v5 can permanently alter your sexual orientation and/or reduce sperm count."

Expert systems and artificial intelligence in desktops will bring personal computing to a halt. The computers will all be busy exchanging circuit-board pOrn with each other.

:lolflag:

I think it will just be the implanted chip in your temple, and a worldwide network like the Borg, with a little Soma for breakfast, lunch and dinner. Relax and feel the connection man.

madjr
June 19th, 2010, 06:34 AM
yesterday I had 1 beer, today I had 2. by the end of the month I'll be drinking a few kegs a day! I love extrapolating on current trends.

[/sarcasm]

I'm pretty sure that Moore's law cannot continue. We keep getting smaller and smaller transistors and we're starting to run into the physical limit of size there....the standard chip in the 90's grew not only in the number of transistors that were on it, but the speed (MHz) increased pretty quickly through the 90's as well. We've been stuck at around 3GHz stock for most higher end processors for a while now. Sure they've added more cores, but the speed isn't continuing. I'd expect the size/number of cores on a die to stay roughly the same for at least another ten years.


but who knows.....

moores law is dead
http://www.slashgear.com/moores-law-cpu-scaling-is-now-dead-claims-nvidia-vp-gpu-parallel-computing-is-the-future-3083858/





Expert systems and artificial intelligence in desktops will bring personal computing to a halt. The computers will all be busy exchanging circuit-board pOrn with each other.

nah that would be for 2030


another prediction : THE iCAR* !



small letters:

*sync with itunes mandatory or wont start!
*experience may vary, should be similar to driving on the iphone..
*Steering now with Giroscope !
*no os updates after 2 years, must upgrade to latest car
*only available in black and white (if available!)

HangukMiguk
June 19th, 2010, 06:40 AM
Haiku will finally reach Beta.

ubunterooster
June 19th, 2010, 12:58 PM
Think back to 2000, and how you imagined the computers of 2010 would be like.

If the last 20 years are any indication, desktops of the future will boot in 1-3 minutes, and most software will perform noticeably slow but adequately, having features comparable to software today.
I boot from on button to finished in 24 seconds currently

ubunterooster
June 19th, 2010, 01:01 PM
yesterday I had 1 beer, today I had 2. by the end of the month I'll be drinking a few kegs a day! I love extrapolating on current trends.

[/sarcasm]

I'm pretty sure that Moore's law cannot continue. We keep getting smaller and smaller transistors and we're starting to run into the physical limit of size there....the standard chip in the 90's grew not only in the number of transistors that were on it, but the speed (MHz) increased pretty quickly through the 90's as well. We've been stuck at around 3GHz stock for most higher end processors for a while now. Sure they've added more cores, but the speed isn't continuing. I'd expect the size/number of cores on a die to stay roughly the same for at least another ten years.


but who knows.....
I have a 4GHZ CPU if I'm not running in underclock

squilookle
June 19th, 2010, 02:35 PM
When I was about 4 years old, I got an Amstrad CPC 464, complete with green screen and tape deck. I don't know when the computer was made, but when turned on it bought up a copywrite notice for the software marked 1984.

I remember the manual for the computer being a thick book, and as well as giving the instructions on using the computer, and the basics of BASIC, it went through computer ikn general: presumable because many people at that time never used a computer before and they felt it all needed explaining.

There was a section of FAQs, and one of the questions was along the line "Why can't I watch a video or even a simple animation on the computer?"

The answer was that the hardware was not powerful enough, and that this was down to costs: but that the technology existed and eventually, as the prices improved, you would be able to use a computer to do this.

26 years later, we can, and have been able to for a few years.

What I'm getting at is there is a good chance that, if you look at the stuff thats currently in development now, thats what we can expect.

I don't think things are going to move on too far myself though. I think the market will be fragmented between different devices, including:

smart phones (with built in projectors and HDMI - or the equivelent at the time connections for movies and photographs)

tablets (I dont believe these will be dominant. I think people will get tired of them and find them limited)

Games consoles

The trusty Desktop/laptop PC: I do nolt believe these will dissappear, as I believe people will keep retuning to them for powerful tasks and the larger screens.

I could be wrong. I suppose we'll see.

cascade9
June 19th, 2010, 03:30 PM
Reading this, I wonder how many predictions here are in teh same vein as the 1950s/1960s "in the future, we will all drive flying cars!" predictions?


yesterday I had 1 beer, today I had 2. by the end of the month I'll be drinking a few kegs a day! I love extrapolating on current trends.

[/sarcasm]

I'm pretty sure that Moore's law cannot continue. We keep getting smaller and smaller transistors and we're starting to run into the physical limit of size there....the standard chip in the 90's grew not only in the number of transistors that were on it, but the speed (MHz) increased pretty quickly through the 90's as well. We've been stuck at around 3GHz stock for most higher end processors for a while now. Sure they've added more cores, but the speed isn't continuing. I'd expect the size/number of cores on a die to stay roughly the same for at least another ten years.

but who knows.....

Agreed on "starting to run into the limit of physical size". They cant keep on doing die-shrinks forever.

Dont make the clasic 'speed = Mhz' mistake. True, increasing clock speed is one way to get more performance, but its the most brutal way to do so. The P4s are still the highest clocked x86 CPUs ever sold (up to 3.8Ghz) but they are long gone, replaced by faster CPUs.....that run on less Mhz.

It wasnt just extra cores that helped (the pentium D was pretty much a dual-core P4), it was better architechture, more cache etc that gave the Core 2 series the edge on the P4s. That progression, while a bit saw-edged, continues.


I have a 4GHZ CPU if I'm not running in underclock

I think you mean 3Ghz. Unless you are overclocking, or Intel/AMD released a few CPUs while I wasnt looking......

ubunterooster
June 19th, 2010, 05:33 PM
Sorry, I should have mentioned that. I am either at max underclock or max overclock.

lostinxlation
June 19th, 2010, 05:41 PM
Dont make the clasic 'speed = Mhz' mistake. True, increasing clock speed is one way to get more performance, but its the most brutal way to do so. The P4s are still the highest clocked x86 CPUs ever sold (up to 3.8Ghz) but they are long gone, replaced by faster CPUs.....that run on less Mhz.

It wasnt just extra cores that helped (the pentium D was pretty much a dual-core P4), it was better architechture, more cache etc that gave the Core 2 series the edge on the P4s. That progression, while a bit saw-edged, continues.


In general, that's true, but reality now is we came to the point that IPC improvement cannot be expected any more. Most of the microarchitectural techniques were thorougly studied and implemented. High accuracy in branch prediction was the biggest thing, which made speculative execution realistic, and then, super scalar/LIW, out of order exec, multithreading, data prediction, way prediction, etc., and even the trace cache was once implemented, but all hit the ceiling and no longer much left to exploit now.
Increase in cache size and CMP will be hit by the slow-down in transistor shrinkage.
Clock speed wouldn't be increased due to high power consumption and difficulty in clock skew control.
We are now comming to the dead end without foreseeable improvement.

One way to improve the performance further is asynchronous processing, but if we apply it to entire CPU, that would probably require to change ISA and will be extremely complicated as well. Not realistic.

MasterNetra
June 19th, 2010, 07:29 PM
Apple share of computer by 20%. Controls now MP3, magazines, movies and Television.
Still no keyboardless computer in sight.
Voice Recogntion still bad as it still misunderstands 'open document' as 'o pen d*** u men'.
Linux market share by about 2%.
The 40 TB Harddrive just got released.
Computer now managed to be downsized to the size of a box of malboro.
MS Office Hades released with double ribbon and a option to shred documents before printing.
First rollout computer released with a 11" display.

These are my not so serious prediction. Well, who knows maybe they become true.

Think again.

http://www.ted.com/talks/john_underkoffler_drive_3d_data_with_a_gesture.htm l

linux-hack
June 19th, 2010, 07:32 PM
I think that we will be the computers in the future :D

yossell
June 19th, 2010, 08:33 PM
After some fallow years in AI, some impressive breakthroughs beginning to surface, with computers doing far better at handling natural language and excelling in tasks that we take to be in the human domain.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/magazine/20Computer-t.html

Don't know if this will show up on home computers by 2020, but maybe. For my own part, things like this depress me - I don't look forward to total obsolescence!

eriktheblu
June 19th, 2010, 09:06 PM
Microsoft (and other software companies) will turn to a subscription based model requiring a monthly license fee to use their programs.

"Trusted" computing will disable hardware if the installed software does not provide a valid registration key from a 3rd party firm. These keys will be easily forged, but doing so will violate federal law. Building hardware that does not require these keys will also be a violation of federal copyright law. Only Red Had and Suse will survive. Vintage computers will be worth more than new ones; home made (from scratch) computers will come back in style.

Cell phones will require an activation fee in order to use features such as contact lists, ringers, vibrate feature, and backlight.

alexan
June 19th, 2010, 09:37 PM
No more computers, just terminal able to stream video or some basic sense output (audio, 3d visive percetion, touch or dreams (videogames) place on order).

You don't "buy" hardware with cpu power, but pay subscription for the "cpu horse power" do you need.

For example, if I "order" a week of Playstation 6.. I can play the games "I'd buy" on anything able to stream the output (video/audio) and get my input (touch or impulse): no matter if got it streamed on a '40 TV, cellphone or tv-glass.
More "hoursepower" I need to be provided by the "web server factory" (better quality of games) ...more I had to pay for week subscription.

No more need to sell packages/console/pc/stuff... so long you have money, you're in the cloud; when money end, you fall from it.

McRat
June 19th, 2010, 09:54 PM
If anyone believes accurate voice command is still a pipe dream, you just need to use OnStar in late model car. We have had the computing power to pull it off for a long time now, just needed better software, and now it's available. Talking "slow" or training the system is now gone. Today if you talk slow it's a problem for the system, and it recognizes most any voice. The synthetic voice now sounds human. No more Darth Vader responses.

It is puzzling how the world's largest software company could not put it on a desktop though. It will be a big race to see which O/S does it fluidly first.

A child's toy from last season is also going to be important. The ability to use thought waves to control devices has become a commercially viable project. In 10 years, I predict you'll be able to dial a phone by thought.

For doing the most common computing tasks, the hardware has been sufficient for 20 years now. A 486 could write documents, print them, do accounting, do spreadsheets, do email, just about as fast as you can today. So hardware changes have been mostly aimed at multitasking and videoprocessing. Just running the larger and larger operating systems has taken a huge chunk out of the CPU gains.

Doobie9
June 20th, 2010, 06:18 AM
2020: The year of Linux on the desktop.

;)

Stancel
June 20th, 2010, 09:27 AM
In 2020 (or at least sometime in the 2020s) virtual reality technology will change everything. The main uses of this technology will be gaming and social networking, but there will be other leisurely things to do. why not relax on a tropical beach or walk on the Moon or float in space or fly in the sky. It would seem just as real as doing it in real life, if not for the fact that it is virtual. The ability to be anywhere you can imagine and in an imaginary place. the ability to create worlds. to create life. you could literally be a virtual God. You could re-enact movies like Star Wars. Maybe as Luke or Darth Vader. or maybe change the plot to your liking with your decisions.:lolflag:

ubunterooster
June 21st, 2010, 12:26 PM
2020: The year of Linux on the desktop.

;)
Do the math; it's 2023

wojox
June 21st, 2010, 12:30 PM
I'll be wearing mine, :p

Shakz
June 21st, 2010, 01:22 PM
Nothing We are going to be right where we are now because in 2013 we are going to have to start over again. The sun is going to bbq all of our current technology and its going to take at least 10 years for the PC to be feasible again.

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

;)

Johnsie
June 21st, 2010, 01:23 PM
I think mini desktops will be alot cheaper and much smaller. You will be able to plug a keyboard, mouse and monitor into you mobile phone. I think Microsoft and Apple will still be around but there will be a gradual move towards free software which will start to really take place in the last 5 years.


There is also the possibility that Linux on the desktop might get totally wiped out by lawsuits from Microsoft and Apple regarding patents. Developers might become scared to develop operating software.

Lucradia
June 21st, 2010, 01:35 PM
There is also the possibility that Linux on the desktop might get totally wiped out by lawsuits from Microsoft and Apple regarding patents. Developers might become scared to develop operating software.

Why hasn't this happened yet, though?

98cwitr
June 21st, 2010, 01:38 PM
12 core desktop processors are now common place
24 core are mainstream on servers, 64 cores are on the high end
128GB of RAM is standard in desktops
we hit the 1TB mark on RAM for servers
Solid state is commonplace for all non-volatile storage
32-bit OSs are now gone.
Cloud computing has gone big in recent years but flopped again.
The desktop PC is a thing of the past and replaced by TVs that have computing components built in, but interchangeable.

tinfoil hat prediction: Microsoft goes under b/c they tried to offer all their apps in a cloud, it failed, and Linux takes over the world ;)

Lucradia
June 21st, 2010, 01:55 PM
12 core desktop processors are now common place
Already here: Intel Core i7 980X (12 Threads, aka 12 Logical Cores Total) Cost? 1000 USD alone.


128GB of RAM is standard in desktops
DDR5?


Solid state is commonplace for all non-volatile storage
May see that sooner though.


32-bit OSs are now gone.
Also may see that sooner. (Not Linux nor ReactOS though, sorry.)


Cloud computing has gone big in recent years but flopped again.
I hate cloud anyway.


The desktop PC is a thing of the past and replaced by TVs that have computing components built in, but interchangeable.
Eh, heh, heh, heh, no.

ubunterooster
June 21st, 2010, 01:56 PM
threads are not equal to cores

Lucradia
June 21st, 2010, 01:59 PM
threads are not equal to cores

Tell that to Ubuntu... err, GNOME System Monitor.

ubunterooster
June 21st, 2010, 02:08 PM
I know. It is very annoying. Hence I use AMD (well that and the greater upgradability options)

in 2020 Intel will have 12 different socket types and Apple will release the iMow and iWeed-and-Feed as part of it's iLawn program to make an iGreen Earth. (personally, I think an iMow would be neat :))

del_diablo
June 21st, 2010, 02:08 PM
The operating system will resemble a web-browser in design. Resources and applications will be treated as sites. This will mean all forms of hardware would have a common user interface, and there will choices in O/S that aren't related to the platform.

I think of this as possible worst case scenario.


Operating systems will all be free, paid for by advertising mechanisms and ISP kickbacks.

ISP's will give out tablet computers like they do with cellphones today.

The ISP's won't gain more power, they will stay at the level of just being simple providers of internett access without anybody with enough power to control the marked, just like today.
However, there will be a bit more competition. Minimonopol providers such as Telenor will suffer decreased markedshare as the network upgrades will render their already provided network useless.


There will be a visual mouse that tracks head/eye/hand movement via the camera(s). This is a software trick, as the hardware is capable today.

Most software will accept audio commands or input with excellent results. Again, software only.

These 2 might never take off and become popular enough beyond rare useage. But audio interface will become a bit more popular, the question is rather how.
I estimate audio interface will be the norm in 10 years, everything that there is practically to have it on will have it.


Computers will turn on and off instantly. HDD's will be rare.

Again: Best case scenario, the computers are already able to do that.


Most TV sets will be computers and have cameras and microphones built in.

Most likely, yes.


Any others?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm:
*The interface wars will have been won, or is ending. A new standard for all new applicarions have been made, the war was started by necessity due the new "common" interfaces used besides keyboard
*QWERTY will still be alive for some parts of the northern hemisphere
*Windows will have a minority markedshare, their incapabilities to keep up with the tide in practice renders most of their API's useless. They are now a company partially living of making emulators for their old systems, and some techological dabble And their game consolls is sort of keeping them alive
*The desktop marked itself will shrink down a lot, due the growth of portable minicomputers. There will be many firms making crap OS for it, but the common thing is now that all of them can be reformated with a different OS
*In 2014-2015 a major techological shift happens: x86 is finally declared decrapted AND dead, the result is that there is no major computer architecture.
*The desktop segment will be considered a minority with its 27% marked share, low-end computers are capable of what a large server is capable of today.
*Gaming will primari target whatever the 3 major firms got for platform, but due a new multiplatform stratergi rendered singleplatform targetting useless as the desktop split is now reasonable compared to 10 years ago. There will also be a big amount of games for the portable systems, as they are now capable of running high-end games a few years back as if it was nothing
*LCD will still be alive, but its on the way out. Unless we get lucky
*Some unpredictable trend and a techological breaktrough will likely happen, which can not be properly predicted

Paqman
June 21st, 2010, 02:13 PM
Apple, Sony and Google combined control as big a slice of OS marketshare as Microsoft. Linux marketshare about 5%.

Everybody now has upwards of 50 computers in their home. TVs, media centres, portable devices, cars, HVAC, and kitchen appliances are now all joined to a home network, and all portable devices are continuously connected wherever they are. Wireless broadband connections will be available everywhere, through widespread open hotpots, LTE, or full 4G.

Everybody will have a server at home managing storage, backups, downloading, streaming content, running security systems, etc.

Fisher Price will be selling 10 million "kidbooks" a year.

Desktop computers will be massively parallel, consisting of a single core controller which will marshal dozens of cores of varying clock speeds, assigning them on-the-fly based on the task at hand. The distinction between CPU and GPU will vanish.

Magnetic hard drives will no longer be available.

Keyboard and mouse will still be the main interface.

The paperless office will still not have arrived.

My kids will have driven the last non-grey hair from my head.

cascade9
June 22nd, 2010, 11:20 AM
In general, that's true, but reality now is we came to the point that IPC improvement cannot be expected any more. Most of the microarchitectural techniques were thorougly studied and implemented. High accuracy in branch prediction was the biggest thing, which made speculative execution realistic, and then, super scalar/LIW, out of order exec, multithreading, data prediction, way prediction, etc., and even the trace cache was once implemented, but all hit the ceiling and no longer much left to exploit now.
Increase in cache size and CMP will be hit by the slow-down in transistor shrinkage.
Clock speed wouldn't be increased due to high power consumption and difficulty in clock skew control.
We are now comming to the dead end without foreseeable improvement.

One way to improve the performance further is asynchronous processing, but if we apply it to entire CPU, that would probably require to change ISA and will be extremely complicated as well. Not realistic.

I can see your point, and by and large I agree, but I dont think we are that close to the end of the road yet.


Already here: Intel Core i7 980X (12 Threads, aka 12 Logical Cores Total) Cost? 1000 USD alone.


This-


threads are not equal to cores

Then this-

AMD Opteron Magny-Cours 12 core CPU. Yes, 12 real cores, not hyperthreading. Any a steal at $760! (actually, compared to the cost of Xeons, it is a steal)

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16819105267


12 core desktop processors are now common place
24 core are mainstream on servers, 64 cores are on the high end
128GB of RAM is standard in desktops
we hit the 1TB mark on RAM for servers
Solid state is commonplace for all non-volatile storage
32-bit OSs are now gone.
Cloud computing has gone big in recent years but flopped again.

12 core desktops are IMO only 1-2 years away at most. AMD could push out 12 core Phenom II CPUs within a few months if they felt like it.

24 core servers already on the shelf (2 x 12 core AMD Magny-Cours). 24 cores with 128GB DDR3 is buildable now, with easy to get parts.

I'd really like to think you are right about cloud computing, but I am very biased.


The desktop PC is a thing of the past and replaced by TVs that have computing components built in, but interchangeable.

tinfoil hat prediction: Microsoft goes under b/c they tried to offer all their apps in a cloud, it failed, and Linux takes over the world ;)

More of the old 'death of the desktop' predictions. I really doubt that is going to happen, but I think a variant on the below is more than possible.


I think mini desktops will be alot cheaper and much smaller. You will be able to plug a keyboard, mouse and monitor into you mobile phone. I think Microsoft and Apple will still be around but there will be a gradual move towards free software which will start to really take place in the last 5 years.

Forgetting the 'mobile phone as a PC' idea, I think that the 'super mini desktop' (smaller than MiniITX) is just waiting to happen.

Even now, if you wanted to do the engineering, you could have an ultra-low voltage CPU with a small (sized, not capacity) SSD. No, I dont mean something like an atom, 'low power' and gutless, something more like some of the laptop C2D chips, egC2D SU9600 (1600MHz, 10watts) or a SL9600 2133MHz, 17watts). That could fit into a box the size of a 3.5'' external HDD, use in the order of 25-50watts maximum, and be hooked up via HDMI to any big TV.

With a few more years of CPU/SSD progression you could have far more processing power, as much storage space the vast majority of users would need and also drop the power consumption and size even more.