Maybe Linux is doing better than we think?

[BuffaloX]

I just read this "Gnome 3.0 General Sociological Research"
Which was done as a part of "Gnome 3.0 Usability Project"

http://live.gnome.org/UsabilityProject/UsabilityTests/GnomeGeneralResearch

Looking at the numbers, I noticed something peculiar.
When looking at language/country I first thought German was the big orange slice, which would make sense, since Linux is supposedly reasonably popular in Germany.
But something is slightly wrong with the colors.
And it turns out Germany is very small even compared to UK?
That can't be right, unless Germans are heavily into KDE or something?

The big orange slice is China. :!:
This is the first time ever, I've seen an Asian country turn up in a Linux survey with any kind of significant percentage. But in this one it is HUGE.

The other day, my wife read an article postulating Linux had about 10% market share in China. Could it be true?

[wojox]

I don't think Linux will see a whole lot of market share until they get a firmer grasp on gaming. That seems to be the rage these days.

[humphreybc]

Uh to be honest, I am not sure.

But I do know that #ubuntu-cn in IRC often has a tonne of people in it. More than most channels :)

[Mornedhel]

Looking at the numbers, I noticed something peculiar.
When looking at language/country I first thought German was the big orange slice, which would make sense, since Linux is supposedly reasonably popular in Germany.
But something is slightly wrong with the colors.
And it turns out Germany is very small even compared to UK?
That can't be right, unless Germans are heavily into KDE or something?

Eh. I though France would be right after China, the US, and Brazil. We do have very active FOSS communities, after all. Turns out, either I was wrong, or no one was notified about this survey.

Japan also has a completely distinct hacker culture. A good chunk of Emacs stuff is Japanese (it gets ugly when they don't bother translating their documentation), and you can just feel that they don't approach it exactly the same way. They're quite active in FOSS, but it doesn't show at all in the survey, most likely because both communities don't talk a lot.

Regarding Germany and KDE, it's just possible that they indeed like KDE better than Gnome. If I remember correctly, at the beginnings of Knoppix, the default language was German and the desktop environment was KDE, so the first thing you'd do would be change the language to English and the keyboard to your own layout (and then you'd change from the annoying KDE default of single-click to double-click). Nowadays they have two editions, a German one and an English one.

[lev-unr]

I disagree about gaming. I think that there is a small market for gaming in Liunux - and even in windows for that matter. I have always been a firm believer in console gaming vs PC gaming. I think the experience is just better on consoles hands down.

I think Linux needs to concentrate more on hardware compatability - and making more native software that is competitive with mainstream - vs emulating on wine.

[thatguruguy]

I don't think Linux will see a whole lot of market share until they get a firmer grasp on gaming. That seems to be the rage these days.

A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

[Telecaster72]

Of course it is gaming that keeps Linux back, i friend _finally_ asked me to help him install Linux after a very malicious virus incident on XP, he wanted to dual boot to just run games on XP and everything else in Linux (we'll see how often he will boot into Crunchbang after he is done gaming to go online, i suspect his XP will get attacked again soon ;)). Despite the high sales in gaming consoles, a lot of people play games on their computers (infact all of my friends except me;)) and they exclusively use Microsoft even though the like the "idea" of open source and Linux, the dealbreaker is gaming.


A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

Looking at those prices for stuff you get for free or dont need in Linux makes my head spin...why???? Norton???? Most of the people buying MS Office and Virus Protections software and such i would think are older, scared of viruses and those "hackers", scared of anything different from the Microsoft OS they have learnt to deal with through the years and many of them dont even know other alternatives exist. But where it's happening is in the younger crowd that is not so stuck in their habits, if games worked as well in Linux as in Windows they would not have a problem with switching. -Hey look it's for free and i can play my online games on it, lets try it! The problem is though, how to get game companies to start porting their games to Linux? And ofcourse all the different standards such as .deb .rpm .pkg and so on is a problem....

[thatguruguy]

Believe it or not, kids are not the exclusive market for computers.

EDIT: I linked to some pretty objective data. I.e., a listing of top-selling applications on a general-purpose commercial site. If you want to prove me wrong, do it with some hard data. I don't care about the computer preferences of your uncle's girlfriend's next-door neighbor.

[Telecaster72]

Believe it or not, kids are not the exclusive market for computers.

EDIT: I linked to some pretty objective data. I.e., a listing of top-selling applications on a general-purpose commercial site. If you want to prove me wrong, do it with some hard data. I don't care about the computer preferences of your uncle's girlfriend's next-door neighbor.

I have no interest in proving you wrong, i dont waste my time on pettiness, just stating an opinion and if you dont care of my uncle's girlfriend's next-door neighbors computer that is fine, nobody forces you to.

Peace

[3rdalbum]

A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

So all we need is tax software, MS Office and some resource-eating "Internet Security" programs and we'll be at 70% marketshare? :-P

The results from Amazon are slightly skewed because the people who buy from Amazon are the ones who haven't shopped around and found that Amazon is massively overpriced. And people who buy from Amazon obviously don't mind waiting three months to get their product shipped to them.

[mamamia88]

So all we need is tax software, MS Office and some resource-eating "Internet Security" programs and we'll be at 70% marketshare? :-P

The results from Amazon are slightly skewed because the people who buy from Amazon are the ones who haven't shopped around and found that Amazon is massively overpriced. And people who buy from Amazon obviously don't mind waiting three months to get their product shipped to them.
not really i like to buy videogames from amazon. they are usually like 5 bucks cheaper than going to bestbuy and you can get release day delivery for $6 which means you still get your games on day one for about 2-3 bucks cheaper than going to store because i don't pay tax

[Jesus_Valdez]

Amaze, I am not.

Is China, very few people in China is like whole other countries.

[mikewhatever]

There is a problem with that survey, as far as estimating market share goes. 1000+ number of participants is way too small. Obviously, the survey was not intended to deal with market share in the first place.

[xir_]

A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

correct me if i'm wrong but the first game on that list is scrabble champion

[Swagman]

And the top sellers for Amazon.co.uk =

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/bestsellers/software

Games are not even in the first 50 results

Dunno about where you are but here in Uk most people either use a Wii or a Ps3 for games

[edit]

Just scrolled through ALL the list... Methinks they must be NOT be classifying Games as software as there are NONE in the list.

[JDShu]

correct me if i'm wrong but the first game on that list is scrabble champion

Er.. yeah the first game on the list is a game. Is that surprising?

[Mornedhel]

Er.. yeah the first game on the list is a game. Is that surprising?

I think his point is that the top seller game is not Half Effect Episode 3: Enemy Territory of Warcraft (you know, the one with the portals and cake) but a casual game instead.

[Telecaster72]

I think the point is that people use whatever OS they are used to and that works for what they want to do. Windows is not #1 because it is the best OS but because people has grown up using it and continue to do so, in order to even contemplate trying a different OS it has to be able to let you do everything you can do in Windows.
A lot of people uses their PC to play games on despite the sales stastistics on Amazon, especially kids and students who cant afford having both a computer and a console.

It is true as thatguruguy said that kids are not the exclusive market for computers, but kids grow, believe it or not, and their computer habits stays with them.
If we look a little further it is those people that has to start using Linux and be as used to it as they are with Windows through the rest of their lives. The people bying Tax-programs, anti-virus software and MS Office are not the future of Linux and they did not have the choice between MS and Linux growing up and are naturally biased toward MS.

Bottom line is in my opinion, as long as you cant do all the same things in Linux as in Windows, Linux will always be a marginal OS.

Note that this comes from someone that couldnt give a rats buttox about computergames in the first place anyway...

[HermanAB]

The popularity of something heavily depends on how it is measured. MS is very careful to measure only the small market segment that they dominate and exclude everything else.

The computer market is much larger than the desktop segment which represents only about 800 million machines. There are more than 2 billion Linux devices out there and every year another 300 million more are pumped out by the factories. Simply consider that each and every PC on top of a desk, has a Linux router under the desk, which MS carefully discounts.

So yes, MS supplies 100% of all Windows PC operating systems...

[BuffaloX]

A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

I think most people buy games in gameshops or from steam.
Xbox and playstation are just proof that gamers create their own complete ecosystems. They always have since way back to C64 and Amiga which were almost entirely based on gamers, and they still do.
The reason PC game sales are slow now, is because Microsoft and the industry as a whole has all but killed PC gaming.
Game consoles suck compared to a good PC gaming rig.


So all we need is tax software, MS Office and some resource-eating "Internet Security" programs and we'll be at 70% marketshare? :-P


You nailed it! :popcorn:


Amaze, I am not.

Is China, very few people in China is like whole other countries.

you are right, but for a survey like this, the language must be a huge barrier.
I suspect that may be the reason English speaking countries are overrepresented.


There is a problem with that survey, as far as estimating market share goes. 1000+ number of participants is way too small. Obviously, the survey was not intended to deal with market share in the first place.

No you can't make any reasonable estimate of market share based on this survey, I just noticed that there was a surprisingly high number of Chinese participating. Which made me think...

[BuffaloX]

Eh. I though France would be right after China, the US, and Brazil. We do have very active FOSS communities, after all. Turns out, either I was wrong, or no one was notified about this survey.

Japan also has a completely distinct hacker culture. A good chunk of Emacs stuff is Japanese (it gets ugly when they don't bother translating their documentation), and you can just feel that they don't approach it exactly the same way. They're quite active in FOSS, but it doesn't show at all in the survey, most likely because both communities don't talk a lot.

Regarding Germany and KDE, it's just possible that they indeed like KDE better than Gnome. If I remember correctly, at the beginnings of Knoppix, the default language was German and the desktop environment was KDE, so the first thing you'd do would be change the language to English and the keyboard to your own layout (and then you'd change from the annoying KDE default of single-click to double-click). Nowadays they have two editions, a German one and an English one.

We have noticed in our own household the fine work done for Linux in France.
My wife makes an App she calls "Ubuntu Audio Tweaks", this app is pretty popular in France, and now has French translation thanks to the community. ;)
I think the reason for relatively high numbers for English speaking areas is because the survey was probably in English.
This could also explain why other countries was represented so poorly compared to USA and GB, except for the surprisingly high number of Chinese.

[standingwave]

I don't think Linux will see a whole lot of market share until they get a firmer grasp on gaming. That seems to be the rage these days.

Conversely, Linux gaming won't progress until developers see a greater market. It's a classic chicken and egg situation that will resolve itself eventually, provided that Linux continues to gain market share.

Having said that, I've found plenty of great Linux games that suit my needs as I tend to use games to take a break, not as an be-all/end-all in their own right. I will play GNU Backgammon, Foobilliard or fire up one of the many FPSers, play for fifteen or twenty minutes and then return to whatever I was doing. For me, gaming was pretty far down the list of reasons I switched to Linux.

[Malakai]

A quick look at the listing of the top-selling software at Amazon (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/software) casts doubt upon this position.

Wow very sad that most of that software is overpriced crap, and there are open source solutions that are as good or better, and dont cost massive amounts of dough.

Except the tax programs which I dont know of many oss software that can take its place, but I bet there are some. And efiling through hrblock or something is *gasp* completely free & requires no third party software =) I do it every year.

[markbuntu]

Antivirus we do not need.
Open Office is getting very close to MS Office. Many governments are moving to open source platforms simply due to the expense. This will drive Open Office into the mainstream. Just a little more work on Impress...
Tubotax needs a linux port but it will run in wine. If you are self employed/small business this is a critical means of keeping the IRS off your back and keeping things consistent year to year. If you just have wages etc then you are way better off using the on-line free stuff.

Quickbooks is what accountants/bookeepers learn in school. It is what they make thier clients use. We need a open source bookeeping app that is taught in schools.

Many large game production companies are thinking very hard about linux/ open platform ports for their games, especially for MMORPGs. They are getting over their fears of all the hackers using linux and are beginning to realize security and other advantages, after all their servers have been running linux for years so there is a lot of linux centric code in the games already.

I would not be surprised to seem some games coming out within the next few years running totally from the servers with the game you buy just a thin client frontend.

[Frak]

Many large game production companies are thinking very hard about linux/ open platform ports for their games, especially for MMORPGs. They are getting over their fears of all the hackers using linux and are beginning to realize security and other advantages, after all their servers have been running linux for years so there is a lot of linux centric code in the games already.

Link please.

[MaxIBoy]

The big orange slice is China. :!:Two words:


Green
Dam

[BuffaloX]

Sorry the first pie China slice is green, the second pie China is orange.

Don't know if that was what you meant, weird they haven't attempted better color consistency.

[pwnst*r]

Uh to be honest, I am not sure.

But I do know that #ubuntu-cn in IRC often has a tonne of people in it. More than most channels :)

That's a great indication of an international user base for sure!

[beetleman64]

I don't think anyone is really sure what percentage Linux is. I once heard someone say "Choose your logic, choose your figure." Makes sense.

Interesting what you said about China, remember that China has a massive population but I had read that Red Flag Linux is popular over there. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Flag_Linux)

[alexfish]

I just read this "Gnome 3.0 General Sociological Research"
Which was done as a part of "Gnome 3.0 Usability Project"

http://live.gnome.org/UsabilityProject/UsabilityTests/GnomeGeneralResearch

Looking at the numbers, I noticed something peculiar.
When looking at language/country I first thought German was the big orange slice, which would make sense, since Linux is supposedly reasonably popular in Germany.
But something is slightly wrong with the colors.
And it turns out Germany is very small even compared to UK?
That can't be right, unless Germans are heavily into KDE or something?

The big orange slice is China. :!:
This is the first time ever, I've seen an Asian country turn up in a Linux survey with any kind of significant percentage. But in this one it is HUGE.

The other day, my wife read an article postulating Linux had about 10% market share in China. Could it be true?

Do they take this into account

http://www.linux.org/info/linux_govt.html

Then you will get the True Answer

[fishexe]

I think his point is that the top seller game is not Half Effect Episode 3: Enemy Territory of Warcraft (you know, the one with the portals and cake) but a casual game instead.

You think Scrabble Champion is a casual game? Clearly you and I have not met the same scrabble players...