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View Full Version : Likelihood Canonical will be sold out from under us?



Gizenshya
January 5th, 2010, 01:33 AM
The recent MySQL/Oracle fiasco has really hit my "belief" in FOSS hard. Will it all eventually crumble to the same forces? It makes me question the movers and shakers in the business. Are they perhaps planning to double-cross us for their own personal gains?

Obviously, this is very subjective and speculative, and I pray it will never come to this. I'm just wondering what people here thought with the recent sad news.

Gizenshya
January 5th, 2010, 01:38 AM
nevermind, the poll started working...

NoaHall
January 5th, 2010, 01:40 AM
Sell us out to who? Besides, it doesn't really matter. Debian is always there.

Frak
January 5th, 2010, 01:43 AM
Well, with Canonical having a profit margin in the negatives, a buyout could always be an option of they believe it could move the project forward, or if they just need the money.

gabo.cr
January 5th, 2010, 01:46 AM
There are other ways to make money, like Ubuntu One, the Ubuntu Shop etc.

kostkon
January 5th, 2010, 01:49 AM
Canonical is not a public company and it solely belongs (I think) to Mark Shuttleworth.

Mark is a billionaire.

So? Likelihood: 0%

MooPi
January 5th, 2010, 01:50 AM
The only way this will ever happen is if Ubuntu starts making tons of cash which would make them a lucrative venture. TONS OF CASH.:P

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 01:51 AM
Canonical is a capitalist enterprise. I don't know why that may be surprising to some people.

I'm not sure what you mean by "sell us out".

Gizenshya
January 5th, 2010, 02:02 AM
What do I mean by sell us out? hmmm... good question. I would just feel disappointed if it Ubuntu were sold... as if I had invested my trust in FOSS and humanity only to be let down.

I'm probably thinking too much anyway, and the words are very tricky to choose. But Anyway, I'm just curious about what people here thought.

Atm, I'm pretty confident that it won't be sold and turned non-FOSS, but ya never know.

jrusso2
January 5th, 2010, 02:06 AM
I would say the chances of sales are very good if there was a buyer and I don't think there are many who would buy a company for Linux Desktops.

RiceMonster
January 5th, 2010, 02:07 AM
Atm, I'm pretty confident that it won't be sold and turned non-FOSS, but ya never know.

It can't be turned into non-FOSS since the majority of the upstream code it's using is GPL'd.

wersdaluv
January 5th, 2010, 02:13 AM
The recent MySQL/Oracle fiasco has really hit my "belief" in FOSS hard. Will it all eventually crumble to the same forces? It makes me question the movers and shakers in the business. Are they perhaps planning to double-cross us for their own personal gains?

Obviously, this is very subjective and speculative, and I pray it will never come to this. I'm just wondering what people here thought with the recent sad news.
To be honest, I don't have an idea. I hope not. It's possible, though.

If it happens, I'll lose faith in a lot of things.

Frak
January 5th, 2010, 02:21 AM
Mark is a billionaire.

I doubt that.

kilosan
January 5th, 2010, 04:03 AM
the only company i can see that might purchase it is google.

Simian Man
January 5th, 2010, 04:10 AM
Who would want to buy a company that is losing money?

Frak
January 5th, 2010, 04:13 AM
the only company i can see that might purchase it is google.


Who would want to buy a company that is losing money?

Google Ventures is probably the only venture firm that would buy Canonical at this point. I've made investments, and seriously, Canonical looks like a dead goose.

Chris Edgell
January 5th, 2010, 04:24 AM
It wouldn't be the first time a company got taken over and buried just to keep the cost up.

What happened to the electric car?
Who is John Galt?
What happened to eye-liner REFILLS? lol

munky99999
January 5th, 2010, 04:32 AM
Canonical is not a public company and it solely belongs (I think) to Mark Shuttleworth.

Mark is a billionaire.

So? Likelihood: 0%

This pretty much. I dont choose 0% though. Never say Never.

I also went up 1 more notch because no timeline is provided and Mark's heirs might just sell out.

droadtrip
January 5th, 2010, 04:33 AM
I voted 0% likely for the long term. Canonical is still Shuttleworth's developing child which he is living the dream to make Ubuntu the largest OS on the planet. He does not have the ambitions of selling it as he did with his last company - Thawt. Whether or not Shuttleworth is CEO, if this happened sooner than 2nd quarter 2010, he will put enough influence to squash any sale. Besides Canonical is still not profitable and why would he sell all his hard work to have it disentigrated out of existance. I strongly take the stand and say yes, 0%!

oceania68
January 5th, 2010, 04:40 AM
It wouldn't be the first time a company got taken over and buried just to keep the cost up.

What happened to the electric car?
Who is John Galt?
What happened to eye-liner REFILLS? lol

Good questions............. Guess whats coming back..... thats right the electric car..... LMAO.... btw I only just watched that doco on the electric car.. shame shame shame on GMH and now look what happened to them, A bail out from the US government, and now has to make green cars... Oh look here comes the electric car... (ok there is a little sarcasm there, nothing too great)..

And yes THE all mighty all powerful all knowing all eaves dropping Google... all praise google... rofl... Seriously Google with its "No debts" and lots of profits (as of last I saw on tv) could if it wanted too, play its part in taking Canonical.... not because its not making much (if any) but because it has the "User Base".... Think outside the square.. And before you know..... ADS.... Ads everywhere.... As if Shopping Networks wasnt enough.... " Lets Get Ready To Zumba" seriously I hate the shopping networks... But there are idiots in the world who will buy...... just for the sake of buying....

I can hear now.... "Lets get ready to Zumba.... Ubuntu Style" hahaha ok Im done...:P

droadtrip
January 5th, 2010, 04:46 AM
Are you strung out on Caffeine, Oceania68? Trying to follow what you said and you were changing course all throughout. You must have just seen a funny TV program I guess. Google has enough big fish to worry about. Canonical is in a different ballpark from this.

Nerd King
January 5th, 2010, 04:48 AM
The MySQL thing is largely BS. Frankly monty is just getting his knickers in a twist. He sold the brand to Sun, and now gets a strop on when sun get bought out? He got rich off it. It's GPL so put a fork in it. Given a suitable figurehead to bring the community accross, mysql-fork will gain adoption fairly quickly, especially if it brings new features to the table. If not, and if Mysql gets held back by sun, there's postgresql (which I'm planning to start working on soon).
The same applies with Ubuntu. If it gets sold, someone can fork it (a la mint), or there's Debian, or Mandriva or Arch or lots of other excellent distros if that doesn't take off. The thing with linux is you just can't kill it.

Groucho Marxist
January 5th, 2010, 04:48 AM
Canonical is a capitalist enterprise. I don't know why that may be surprising to some people.

I'm not sure what you mean by "sell us out".

I agree; capitalism is not inherently evil, nor is the idea of a private company going public.

starcannon
January 5th, 2010, 04:51 AM
I have never even considered this possibility; I couldn't honestly say what I think about the chances of this happening. However, if it were to happen, I can honestly say, I would either follow the resulting fork, go to Mint, or go to Arch, I would be mildly inconvenienced at the most.

Gizenshya
January 5th, 2010, 05:17 AM
I'm pleased at the variety of views, and also for some who have managed to put it all in perspective.

ATM, at least, I can say I can say I have every reason to believe Canonical will stay true to its origins (and namesake), and no reason to believe it won't. I hope I will be able to say that for some time to come.

whiskeylover
January 5th, 2010, 06:34 AM
I can see a company like Dell wanting to purchase it. They can market the hell out of it (Mac vs PC vs Ubuntu. I know Ubuntu/PC... blah blah...) But if they spin it right, and can get people to think and be curious about an option other than Mac/PC, it might actually take off and be profitable in the long run.

That been said, I'm no marketing major. Thats just my opinion.

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 07:36 AM
Who would want to buy a company that is losing money?

Google? (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15196982/ns/business-us_business/page/2/)

I'm not sure where this idea that Canonical is losing money comes from anyway. The company is private, their financial records are private.

HappinessNow
January 5th, 2010, 07:45 AM
Mark is a billionaire.

What is Mark Shuttleworth's Net Worth?

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 07:47 AM
Actually...



Canonical also receives revenue from companies like Dell that ship computers with Ubuntu and work with it on software engineering projects like adding Linux-based features to laptops. All told, Canonical’s annual revenue is creeping toward $30 million, Mr. Shuttleworth said.

That figure won’t worry Microsoft.

But Mr. Shuttleworth contends that $30 million a year is self-sustaining revenue, just what he needs to finance regular Ubuntu updates. And a free operating system that pays for itself, he says, could change how people view and use the software they touch everyday.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/business/11ubuntu.html?pagewanted=3&_r=1

So the most reliable evidence of Canonical's revenue is saying they are breaking even. And really it seems like the "Canonical is losing money" stuff is the standard dishonest Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt (FUD) generated by Ubuntu/Linux haters, and shamelessly being spread by Ubuntu enthusiasts as "the truth". This seems to be a common occurrence.

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 07:49 AM
What is Mark Shuttleworth's Net Worth?


In the following years, Mr. Shuttleworth set up venture capital and charitable organizations. Through investments in the United States, Africa and Europe, he says, he has amassed a fortune of more than $1 billion.

Per quoted article above.

HappinessNow
January 5th, 2010, 07:52 AM
Per quoted article above.Where's the link?

I found this quote:


09.06.06, 6:00 AM ET ...Canonical has burned through $15 million of Shuttleworth's money in two and a half years. He says that it will take him at least another two years to even know whether it has a chance to become profitable, and that it may never return his investment. But that doesn't matter. He's paying all the bills either way, along with setting up a $10 million endowment for the Ubuntu Foundation that's earning interest for a day when his attentions may drift elsewhere. (Shuttleworth tried out in early 2005 for the Donald Trump role on a South African version of The Apprentice, but lost to a politically connected head of a mining company.)...http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/05/linux-ubuntu-opensource_cz_mr_0906shuttleworth.html

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 07:53 AM
Where's the link?

I found this quote:

http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/05/linux-ubuntu-opensource_cz_mr_0906shuttleworth.html

It's in my post. NY Times. And it's 3 years newer then yours.

HappinessNow
January 5th, 2010, 07:56 AM
It's in my post. NY Times. And it's 3 years newer then yours.
yeah but I couldn't find his name in the Forbes list of world Billionaires,
http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/11/worlds-richest-people-billionaires-2009-billionaires_land.html


...my post said nothing of his net worth it was only about how much money Canonical has lost back in 2006.

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 08:04 AM
yeah but I couldn't find his name in the Forbes list of world Billionaires,
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/10/07billionaires_The-Worlds-Billionaires_Rank_38.html

...my post said nothing of his net worth it was only about how much money Canonical has lost back in 2006.

I'm not sure how Forbes can actually know net worth as they claim, it's likely that they do educated guesses or the billionaires voluntarily divulge the information. Just like I can't peak into your bank account.

Of course Canonical lost money early on, I don't know of many high-tech companies that turn a profit very quickly. The point is it's 2010 and there is FUD being spread around that Canonical is in some kind of financial danger, despite being wholly owned by a billionaire and breaking even regardless.

HappinessNow
January 5th, 2010, 08:08 AM
I'm not sure how Forbes can actually know net worth as they claim, it's likely that they do educated guesses or the billionaires voluntarily divulge the information. Just like I can't peak into your bank account.


Likewise how can the NY Times know Mark Shuttleworth's Net worth?

also, does Canonical release it's earning statements to the public?

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 08:09 AM
[QUOTE=phrostbyte;8612408]I'm not sure how Forbes can actually know net worth as they claim, it's likely that they do educated guesses or the billionaires voluntarily divulge the information. Just like I can't peak into your bank account.

[QUOTE]
Likewise how can the NY Times know Mark Shuttleworth's Net worth?

also, does Canonical release it's earning statements to the public?

NY Times asked Shuttleworth. Canonical does not release it's earning statements to the public, but Shuttleworth divulged that information himself in the article. Read the article, it's actually pretty good. :P

HappinessNow
January 5th, 2010, 08:12 AM
NY Times asked Shuttleworth. Canonical does not release it's earning statements to the public, but Shuttleworth divulged that information himself in the article. Read the article, it's actually pretty good. :POkay I'll take a look. :P

...but you have me more interested in actually how does Forbes come up with it's list?

phrostbyte
January 5th, 2010, 08:14 AM
Okay I'll take a look. :P

...but you have me more interested in actually how does Forbes come up with it's list?

One way is via tracking the person's ownership of public companies. IE: It's public knowledge (due to insider trading laws and what not), that billionare X owns 20% of company Y. Company Y is worth $100bn, thus billionare X must be at least worth $20bn. That's just one way.

23meg
January 5th, 2010, 10:28 AM
A basic fact lots of people seem to be unaware of is that Mark's motivation in starting Canonical wasn't to make more money than he already had, but to realize his vision of introducing free software to masses of personal computer users. He aimed to make Canonical sustainable (not necessarily hugely profitable) in an effort to realize that vision. As such, a self-sustaining and growing Canonical isn't an end to itself, but a means to an end.

He isn't any less passionate about realizing his vision today than he was five years ago, and the only reason I can imagine for him to consider selling Canonical is the waning of his passion. Thus, the likelihood is extremely low.

NCLI
January 5th, 2010, 10:33 AM
I agree; capitalism is not inherently evil.
That's one opinion. It's certainly a system that's very open to abuse.

Anyway, it'd be nice to get an independant estimate of Mark's net value. After all, Ubuntu is very dependent on it!

L4U
January 5th, 2010, 10:38 AM
Likelihood Canonical will be sold out from under us?
Don't worry, there are over 570 other Linux Distros (http://lwn.net/Distributions/) to take Ubuntu's place. ;)