What are your predictions for the year 2010?...and the new decade?

[HappinessNow]

here are a ten of mine:

1. by the end of the year 2010, Google Chrome will continue to be the 3rd most used Web Browser but will trail Firefox by less then 10 percentage points, and Microsoft's IE will continue to drop in it's user base. By the end of the decade Firefox and Google Chrome will run neck-to-neck while IE will drop to the third position.

2. Opera being the only one without an Operating System will come out with a BSD based OS (note: Microsoft has Windows Os's: XP, Vista, & 7 and IE browser; Apple has OS X & others and the Safari browser; Google has Android, Chrome OS and Chrome Web Browser); in which point the Opera OS will pass up Apple's user base by the end of the decade, but trail Google Chrome OS user base.

3. Ubuntu and Debian developers will merge by the end of the decade.

4. Gnome and KDE will merge by the end of the decade.

5. Enlightenment 17 will still be unstable.

6. The iPhone will become a has been soo last decade device, but still very popular among the tween crowd :lolflag:.

7. Nexus 6 will be released about half way through the decade and Isa **** will sue Google and settle out of court for an undisclosed large sum of money that will come out of Google's petty cash funds.

9. Mark Shuttleworth will lead a mission of Open Source/Linux developers to colonize mars thus fulfilling the prophecy that the meek will inherit the earth while the rest will conquer the stars.

10. I forgot what #10 was but I predict I will come up with something else in the near future of 2010.

[SuperSonic4]

1. Ubuntu will become more like windows to a point where they are one and the same bar looks

2. GNU/Linux as a whole will increase on the desktop but still have a negligible marketshare

3. The netbook will be dead - killed by mobile devices

[HappinessNow]

10. A.

Apple will launch their tablet computer which will develop a huge cult-like fan base in spite of users dropping the device constantly and fractured shreds of display screen flying into unsuspecting toddlers eyes. Apple will buy off the parents with huge sums of money that will come out of their petty cash funds. The events will be shrugged off and not heard with the buying feeding frenzy.

[SuperSonic4]

4. Apple hardware that is non-mac will continue to rise despite viable alternatives

5. At least one major lawsuit will be brought against apple for antitrust

[HappinessNow]

4. Apple hardware that is non-mac will continue to rise despite viable alternatives

5. At least one major lawsuit will be brought against apple for antitrust
I think those will definitely happen. :P

[starcannon]

I predict that I think I'll be able to continue making mortgage payments for another year; or at least I hope I'll pull it off.

[HappinessNow]

I predict that I think I'll be able to continue making mortgage payments for another year; or at least I hope I'll pull it off.starcannon in this concern I hope for the best for you and your family and that for the decade or until the house is paid off you are able to make the payments and one day be free from the bank/mortgage company. :P

[phrostbyte]

I predict Linux and open source will become more important within the next decade. As far as software in general, I predict software development will become more mathematical and AI will come into the foreground, because we are running out of "business apps" to needlessly re-implement. :)

[Frak]

I predict that Linux advocates will constistently claim the next year as the "Year of the Linux Desktop", and yet it will still hold under 2% of the total marketshare. Windows will still hold >90% of the market, and Apple will still claim >90% of the post-$1000 computer market.

I even gave Linux the BOTD extra 1%. It may actually go up on extra percent.

[Queue29]

I predict that Linux advocates will constistently claim the next year as the "Year of the Linux Desktop", and yet it will still hold under 2% of the total marketshare. Windows will still hold >90% of the market, and Apple will still claim >90% of the post-$1000 computer market.

I even gave Linux the BOTD extra 1%. It may actually go up on extra percent.


I think Apple is going to gain a lot of ground on Windows: they're pushing Mac products very heavily on the younger generation, and they have their foot in the door with iPods and iPhones. (It'll take more than a year, but I suspect Apple will eventually have a dominant hold in the home desktop/laptop market).

Linux on the other hand, I believe the FOSS community will come to a breaking point regarding Mono and other taboo projects. I *wish* OpenSuse + Mono + Gnome + friends start breaking away from the GNU project altogether and open the doors for real businesses to sell proprietary products on an open source base.

[Frak]

I suspect Apple will eventually have a dominant hold in the home desktop/laptop market*

* Again

[Guitar John]

I predict that the world will NOT end in 2012 (http://www.whowillsurvive2012.com/). If I am wrong, I will buy everyone here a drink, and a new house.

[SuperSonic4]

I think Apple is going to gain a lot of ground on Windows: they're pushing Mac products very heavily on the younger generation, and they have their foot in the door with iPods and iPhones. (It'll take more than a year, but I suspect Apple will eventually have a dominant hold in the home desktop/laptop market).

Linux on the other hand, I believe the FOSS community will come to a breaking point regarding Mono and other taboo projects. I *wish* OpenSuse + Mono + Gnome + friends start breaking away from the GNU project altogether and open the doors for real businesses to sell proprietary products on an open source base.

Young people are getting more educated about their tech and about their freedoms in particular. I believe that due to my number 5 above apple will have to release the code that ties ipods etc into itunes paving the way for other software. People want quality and that will drive people from the itunes store and ipods (neither has flac support).

[murderslastcrow]

I think there will be, and are, far more Linux users than anyone here thinks. I find it amusing that people think there will be a singular 'year of the Linux desktop', since Windows 95 made computers status quo and it still took them about 5 years to catch on with so many people, still only about 20 percent of people in the world own a computer, and why can't Linux gain ground gradually?

If there ever was a ONE year of the Linux desktop, I think that the netbook market/Android explosion was definitely it, in comparison to all years previous. But Linux is always gaining adoption.

I think people will think more about the need for variety and fairness in the computing market in the next decade, and Linux will get a lot more money/development, and then the benefits of open source will become so apparent that it will be a major player.

I know it sounds silly, but due to what I've heard/seen, it seems that Linux might actually have more users than OS X. Not really that surprising, since it's free, fast, and runs on your current hardware. I think that, just as a way to revive old computers, Linux will become very common.

[the8thstar]

I believe people will move on with the change in technologies.

Hopefully all this electronic buzz and technology will create something good for a change, like bring people together instead of pasting solitudes in a bundle on Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, and all of these other USELESS websites.

[phillychease]

virus will start to dominate phones like the iphone.
and smart users like us will use Ubuntu mobile :)

[judge jankum]

Maybe I'm wrong but I see droves of people coming to Ubuntu/Linux in the next decade....
Just like I did.....The reason? I started with a 386 running 3.11, 95 came out and i had to have a new machine, ok" 486" then come 98 ok new machine......then xp, new machine....well I'm disabled now on a fixed income and here comes Vista, XP for me has gone sour along with the machine" My wallet said to me "don't even think about it" BUT BUT" gotta have something, and can't go back to 95" OK what's this Linux stuff? It's gotta be a joke right? But I grab my old 98 box out of the junk room and slap a Xubuntu cd in and all of a sudden I have the slickest system I've ever had (for my needs)....
The fact that Linux stays dang near up to date with any other os, and beyond some, at the same time it maintains a system to work on even the old dinosaurs with 128 ram makes it (in my opinon) the greatest system ever made...........The price ain't bad either....

[Zoot7]

5. At least one major lawsuit will be brought against apple for antitrust


believe that due to my number 5 above apple will have to release the code that ties ipods etc into itunes paving the way for other software.
Thing is though, Apple products aren't totally forced upon you. For instance there's no reason you have to buy an iPod or an iPhone. There's plenty alternative that are a lot less restrictive, are there not?
Yes they have a monopoly in that field, and they're quite restrictive in the way they go about things, but they don't force their products upon you. Same goes with Macs if you count the >1000 market.
However, if you take Microsoft and Windows, there's few enough of us that can get away without ever using Windows, be it at work, at home, whatever.
Based on that note, I wouldn't say you'll ever see an antitrust case against Apple unless their products are actually forced upon anyone.

Anyway were I to put money on a company coming under antitrust scrutiny in 2010 (other than Microsoft), I'd pick Google.

[Frak]

Anyway were I to put money on a company coming under antitrust scrutiny in 2010, I'd pick Google.

I don't think Google monopolizes anything, really. I mean, they have search, but you could use Bing if you wanted. Bing does just as good of a job, at least in my opinion. If anything, I see a lawsuit happening to Google on a case of privacy.

[Zoot7]

I don't think Google monopolizes anything, really. I mean, they have search, but you could use Bing if you wanted. Bing does just as good of a job, at least in my opinion. If anything, I see a lawsuit happening to Google on a case of privacy.
The general hullabaloo about Google was them tying the search results to their own services, at least that was the word in the pipeline.

As for piracy, I've always maintained that if the likes of torrent search sites are to come under scrutiny on account of copyright infringement then regular search engines of the likes of Google are equally in the "wrong". If anything though, the media conglomerates don't have the gaul to after Google directly on account of them being as big as they are - they're too busy trying to push stupid nonsensical laws that will do nothing but shoot themselves further in the foot.

[Frak]

As for piracy, I've always maintained that if the likes of torrent search sites are to come under scrutiny on account of copyright infringement then regular search engines of the likes of Google are equally in the "wrong". If anything though, the media conglomerates don't have the gaul to after Google directly on account of them being as big as they are - they're too busy trying to push stupid nonsensical laws that will do nothing but shoot themselves further in the foot.

Privacy, not piracy.

[markp1989]

I think Apple is going to gain a lot of ground on Windows: they're pushing Mac products very heavily on the younger generation, and they have their foot in the door with iPods and iPhones. (It'll take more than a year, but I suspect Apple will eventually have a dominant hold in the home desktop/laptop market).


i dont see apple overtaking windows , every one i know who owns an ipod/iphone use windows, and most dont give a [snip] about the computer they use, so given the choice will probably go for the cheapest hardware.

this is coming from a 20 year old.

[Zoot7]

Privacy, not piracy.
Haha, reading doesn't seem to be my forte right about now. :tongue:

[Frak]

Haha, reading doesn't seem to be my forte right about now. :tongue:
Reading is for the weak and librarians.

[Zoot7]

Reading is for the weak and librarians.
Agreed. Give me something Mathematically based as opposed to Linguistically based anyday. :tongue:

[robertcoulson]

Many Windows users have moved from Windows to Linux....As soon asothers find out why, then ..........linux will come into it's own.
Bob

[Paqman]

I think Apple is going to gain a lot of ground on Windows: they're pushing Mac products very heavily on the younger generation, and they have their foot in the door with iPods and iPhones. (It'll take more than a year, but I suspect Apple will eventually have a dominant hold in the home desktop/laptop market).

I don't. Apple very deliberately pick what parts of the market they compete in. They do compete with Windows at the top end, but they've never really showed any interest in the rest of the desktop market.

Their whole brand is based around the image of their products as high-end luxury goods, not mass consumerware. They've been extremely succesful operating this way. To make a play for the centre would damage their brand badly.

[Frak]

I don't. Apple very deliberately pick what parts of the market they compete in. They do compete with Windows at the top end, but they've never really showed any interest in the rest of the desktop market.

Their whole brand is based around the image of their products as high-end luxury goods, not mass consumerware. They've been extremely succesful operating this way. To make a play for the centre would damage their brand badly.
This.

Apple controls over 90% of the post-$1000 market of computers. They want the high end market, not the low or mid-end.

[JDShu]

I predict that Linux advocates will constistently claim the next year as the "Year of the Linux Desktop", and yet it will still hold under 2% of the total marketshare. Windows will still hold >90% of the market, and Apple will still claim >90% of the post-$1000 computer market.

I even gave Linux the BOTD extra 1%. It may actually go up on extra percent.

I said this once before on these forums, but this will truly be:

The Decade of the Linux Desktop :guitar:

[judge jankum]

Many Windows users have moved from Windows to Linux....As soon asothers find out why, then ..........linux will come into it's own.
Bob
I tried Linux because I couldn't afford another machine that would even run xp at the time...The only other os I had was 95.. I was looking for an os that would work with what I had...Now that I've tried buntu I can't imagine ever going back to the other...

[robertcoulson]

Hi judge jankum (http://ubuntuforums.org/member.php?u=938907)
That's ONE reason
Bob

[toupeiro]

As far as ubuntu, I predict that it will not remain the most popular linux distribution throughout the decade. Rather, I think we are close to its pinnacle. I think a new (as in currently unreleased) OS will rival, and surpass all expectations set on linux distributions.

I don't predict the world will end in 2012, but I predict the mass hysteria behind what 2012 means to different people will end tragically in many cultures and in many parts of the world. I do believe that there is a cosmic event which may have an effect on the Earth, possibly in sea levels and temperatures, but nothing world-ending.

I do think that a big San Andreas quake is coming this decade for California. The "big one" everyones been talking about who lives here. I don't think "California will fall off into the ocean" but it will be felt, by at least everybody in the state. I have no facts here, just gut feeling. I've lived in this region most of my life and its always been something I've both feared and been fascinated by. Based on what seismologists have been saying about the pressure buildups since some of the last big slips, I think californians are in for at least 3-4 big quakes in different parts of the fault line and several aftershocks after that.

The american economy will continue to struggle through the decade as it tries to build up some sort of gross domestic product that can compete on world markets again so and provide a bit more balance to the overwhelmingly consumer and outsource driven nation we've become. This decade must be about economic restructure for the US, not prosperity.

Tesla motors will become the next major american automobile maker by the end of the decade, providing top quality, and eventually more affordable electric cars.

The server market will undergo even heavier transformation to modular (blade) form factor equipment and heavy virtualization. The data center footprint, power, space, and cooling-wise will begin to drastically shrink.

4G+ style data networks will begin to have direct competition with cable and DSL style ISP's, eventually offering fully roaming internet connections faster than what a cable ISP can provide for roughly the same cost. Powerline ethernet technologies will begin to turn utility companies into ISP's as well.

A version of windows will come out that will have a kernel with nearly the same framework as a linux kernel. The GUI will once again be a layer on top of a .NET-like (powershell) CLI.

Microsoft will fully dominate the automobile-integrated entertainment technology. (e.g. Microsoft Sync)

Within the next 2 years, laptops will be able to completely replace even high-end workstations from a capacity standpoint, let alone standard desktops. I predict more laptops will be bought than desktops in the next 10 years.

Blue-Ray will never hold the dominance of DVD. We're on the cusp of fully high-def on-demand streaming content. There will be a major shift over the next decade to movie service providors like netflix, and your cable and satellite providors which offer on-demand high-definition content.

I guess thats it for now.

-T.

[Frak]

Tesla motors will become the next major american automobile maker by the end of the decade, providing top quality, and eventually more affordable electric cars.

I don't think Tesla will ever leave the high-end market. They've made a home there, and there's no real reason to get out of it.


A version of windows will come out that will have a kernel with nearly the same framework as a linux kernel. The GUI will once again be a layer on top of a .NET-like (powershell) CLI.

What's your reasoning behind that? If anything, Microsoft is moving as far away from Linux as possible. As for the GUI, they did something along those lines back in the DOS era, and I doubt they'll tred back again (I don't see why it would be beneficial, as it would add extra complications atop of what's already there).

[toupeiro]

I don't think Tesla will ever leave the high-end market. They've made a home there, and there's no real reason to get out of it.

Because the US Federal government has already given them money to start developing more, less expensive, cars and I believe that program will continue through the decade as it becomes cheaper to manufacture.



What's your reasoning behind that? If anything, Microsoft is moving as far away from Linux as possible. As for the GUI, they did something along those lines back in the DOS era, and I doubt they'll tred back again (I don't see why it would be beneficial, as it would add extra complications atop of what's already there).

Because, again, they've already done it with a version of windows server 2008. There is an installation option that is a completely CLI based version of windows server. I don't know if you ever heard of Minwin, but essentially this version of server2k8 is a small step in that direction. Microsoft has been going more CLI ever since Server 2k3 R2. I'm not saying that the average user will be commonly exposed to it as in linux, but based on what I'm already seeing, and seeing how many vendors are writing powershell plugins for applicable things, that is why I predict it. As I said I predict heavy virtualization. VMWare already has a whole toolset written around powershell plugins which you can download to manage hundreds of windows and linux vm's. The foundation is already well on its way for this.

Even if the common user doesn't use a windows CLI, the presence of it compliments the efforts they are making in their other versions of windows and other trends in virtualization. Oh, and no, I am not talking about, or expecting it to be like a MS-DOS environment... I come from the DOS era, and I've worked on this powershell exclusive version of windows server. Yeah, not the same thing at all..

[Groucho Marxist]

I predict that Tron: Legacy will feature an interstella (5555) soundtrack by Daft Punk.
Furthermore, within 5 years, the plot of RoboCop will finally come to fruition should America's High Five suffer further economic plight.

[Khakilang]

1. Ubuntu continue to be no.1 spot on the Distro watch.
2. Ubuntu will release its own browser call Flying Koala to take advantage of its Ubuntu One
3. Netbook will nominate the market replace the Desktop
4. Window will drop the OS product due to tough competition from Linux and poor product and concentrate on its XBox
5. XBox will be top on gaming and unseat Sony Playstation
6. Google will come out with Office on the net. Where everybody use Google website for their office work
7. Blender will be the defector standard to create 3D animation
8. GIMP will unseat Adobe Photoshop for image processor
9. Linux will dominate the Webserver market
10. I will use a voice regconition Linux OS when I retired

There I think I got it all.

[johnb820]

I predict processing performance will flat line in the consumer market.

[icett]

Well not for this year but for the decade:


1- Apple would free its OS X tied to Mac hardware currently and would sell the OS for all PCs.


More later.

[alexfish]

Only Two / Thee

1.
The Extinction Of Microsoft :
Looks Like it may Be Well on the way after the Introduction
Of Win7 Can't even detect or config A SIMPLE Broadband Modem
This Device Came with a Disc to get it running with Win7 ... No Explanation Required Here judging past history of Microsoft

2.
The Masses Will understand There Are Operating Systems Other Than Windows

3.
support for Open and Free Operating systems from Main Steam Vendors /
They Won't have a choice if 2. Happens

[stinger30au]

i predict for the 5th year in a row, my pentium 4 HT 3 Ghz pc will still run quite happily and run linux/windows just fine for me and i wont need to spend a cent like the last 5 years on it

[Johnsie]

In 2010 lot of people will download Ubuntu, join the forums and get excited that they are supporting some operating system that is free, open and different. They will work through all the tutorials and howtos, they will meet new challenges that they didn't have to face on Windows.

By 2013 the novelty will wear off and those people will go back to Windows (don't worry, 2013 will have a new pack of new noobs who will be as excited as the 2010 ones were). They'll realise that Photoshop really is better than GIMP, that MS Office is actually better than Open Office etc. and they will begin to feel left out when all the cool new killer apps come out but not for Linux. They will feel disappointed when they see shiny, good looking user interfaces on Apple and Windows, but not on their own computer.



Other things I expect to happen in 2010:

-People claiming that Linux is becoming mainstream on the Desktop (The fabled Year of Linux on the Desktop... A symptom suffered mostly by people who've buried their heads in the sand and spend most of their time on Linux related websites and actually start to believe alot of people actually use Linux)

-A new version of Pidgin/Empathy, but it looks exactly the same and still wont support audio or video over the main networks

-The next version if Ubuntu will come out, get a day or two of news articles in the media and then be forgotten about. Apple and MS will continue to dominate the headlines, airwaves and news.

-The first major OSX worm... maybe. Those apple fanboys have flipped alot of PC users off, but would the PC worm guys go to the full extent of actually using a mac to create a mac worm when they hate macs? More likely a mac botnet will be created for money making purposes.

[lisati]

<random musing>
I predict that some people will know that a person's 10th birthday falls at the end of their first decade, and that others won't get what I'm on about.
</random musing>


(No fighting please!)