PDA

View Full Version : Is the Desktop dead?



Riffer
December 19th, 2009, 08:45 AM
Or has Linux won the Desktop war by killing it?

I was at this site today

http://www.linuxfordevices.com/c/a/News/NorhTec-Gecko-Surfboard/

thing what a cool idea it is and how small we can take what a computer is, when I had a bit of an epiphany. With all the smart phones out there that surf the web, answer emails etc. most of which is powered by Linux, take that with the netbooks where the latest figures from Dell and an independent consulting firm both show that Linux is on more then a 1/3 of all netbooks sold, and with the market posed for the new generation of tablets again powered by Linux, I had to ask myself where is the old standard Desktop in all this?

In my mind at least, consumers are moving toward smaller more mobile devices for the bulk of their computer needs. Looking at the trends, its as if we (the public) are making a paradigm shift from machines that are vastly over powered for our needs, to machines fulfill our needs and are highly mobile.

While you can get Windows (XP and 7) on netbooks there seems a dissatisfaction with their performance, it seems more and more Windows netbook owners are trying out Linux to get that snappy performance they want. Apples iPhone is still no.1, but with them stuck in a contract with AT&T until July many feel that Apples's share could be seriously eroded by Linux powered smart phones in the coming months. It should be noted that Windows isn't even in the game with Windows CE.

So my thought is while Linux may never win the Desktop wars, it is in a very strong position to be top dog for a whole new generation of computing.

Khakilang
December 19th, 2009, 10:13 AM
A lot of technology has gone into miniturerization of electronic component. Like netbook, all in one PC, tablet PC etc. which is good. All this is mostly targeted to new user or those who need computer without any hassle like what graphic to use, what sound card, how may GB RAM, hard disk and so forth and its space saving. Whereas the desktop is huge and more complicated. Unless you're a computer geek and you know exactly what you want. Buy one, on it and work immediately, thats what most of the user want nowadays and those miniture computer can deliver. Thats it.

bladefall
December 19th, 2009, 10:16 AM
A lot of technology has gone into miniturerization of electronic component. Like netbook, all in one PC, tablet PC etc. which is good. All this is mostly targeted to new user or those who need computer without any hassle like what graphic to use, what sound card, how may GB RAM, hard disk and so forth and its space saving. Whereas the desktop is huge and more complicated. Unless you're a computer geek and you know exactly what you want. Buy one, on it and work immediately, thats what most of the user want nowadays and those miniture computer can deliver. Thats it.

Miniaturization*

Must listen harder in class.

Khakilang
December 19th, 2009, 10:34 AM
Awww. I got problem with that one. Thanks.

AllRadioisDead
December 19th, 2009, 10:41 AM
I read the article you posted, and isn't that what the bottom half of a laptop looks is?

gnomeuser
December 19th, 2009, 11:09 AM
I think many traditional computer tasks will be taken over by different devices. Entertainment (music, movies, tv, pictures, possibly also games) is or will move to DVR type setups, with I suspect the option of adding autodetected satellite devices such as picture frames, stereos and TVs.

Much casual computing will probably move to smart phones, your social networking, email, calendar, news updates. Additionally given location awareness it will serve to help plan your day, act as an intelligent todo list (you appear to be near the supermarket, the fridge told me that the milk is out of date, they also have foo and bar on sale so buying those as well as baz, faz and taz we can have delicious raz for dinner which would be healthy for you and suit your taste) and so on.

As a result the desktop as we know it will shrink, I suspect it will become more about a subset of big tasks, document editing. Video editing, photo retouching. Likely also some fullscreen internet stuff. Being the sole place where you have a nice keyboard it would be the tasks that really require that such as typing long mails (oh dear lord do I hate the touchscreen keyboard on my HTC Hero, slow and inaccurate with keys 1/3 the size of my finger tip).

ElSlunko
December 19th, 2009, 11:13 AM
I was going to try to say something useful but gnomeuser pretty much summed it up for me. I'll always have a desktop for photo editing but if it wasn't for that single task, I wouldn't own a desktop. Not even for gaming anymore.

jacobs444
December 19th, 2009, 11:15 AM
personally I think only (no offence intended-wink) idiots use mobile internet devices, phones ect, when almost everywhere has an attainable desktop PC, why use mobile. #2 if you can't let go of the interweb for 10 frickin frackin minutes to an hour, then you need to get leighed in the hawaiian sense of the word! Peace, oh yeah I've got tux tatted on my arm and I can still let go.

Paqman
December 19th, 2009, 11:49 AM
With all the smart phones out there that surf the web, answer emails etc. most of which is powered by Linux

Er, not really. Linux make a up about 6% of the smartphone market. It's all about Symbian 60 and BlackBerry OS, with iPhone and WinMo battling it out for third and fourth place.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Smartphone_2009.svg

KrazyPenguin
December 19th, 2009, 01:07 PM
It's not dead yet!!!!

Watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QRO3gKj3qw

It is slowly dying though, and google's idea seems to be to kill it.
Then you can do your stuff/work on any device anywhere anytime.

I like the part about if your internet is dead, "you might not even want to use your computer."
Yep, that is me LOL

Ylon
December 19th, 2009, 01:22 PM
Er, not really. Linux make a up about 6% of the smartphone market. It's all about Symbian 60 and BlackBerry OS, with iPhone and WinMo battling it out for third and fourth place.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Smartphone_2009.svg

you forget something:

Becoming open source

Symbian 9.1 introduced capabilities and a Platform Security framework. To access certain APIs, developers have to sign their application with a digital signature. Basic capabilities are user-grantable and developers can self-sign them, while more advanced capabilities require certification and signing via the Symbian Signed program, which uses independent 'test houses' and phone manufacturers for approval. For example, file writing is a user-grantable capability while access to Multimedia Device Drivers require phone manufacturer approval. A TC TrustCenter ACS Publisher ID certificate is required by the developer for signing applications.

The Symbian Foundation was announced in June 2008 and came into existence in 2009. Its objective was to publish the source for the entire Symbian platform under the OSI and FSF approved Eclipse Public License (EPL). However, components within Symbian OS were licensed from third parties which prevented the foundation from publishing the full source under EPL immediately. Initially much of the source was published under a more restrictive Symbian Foundation License (SFL) and available to foundation member companies only.
source (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbian_OS)

Even if not directly, Symbian is going to become a Linux "matter". :guitar:

cguy
December 19th, 2009, 02:06 PM
If they made that keyboard multicore, so you could actually use it in day-to-day tasks, it'd be a blast! :)


PS: dieeee Symbian!

Paqman
December 19th, 2009, 02:31 PM
Even if not directly, Symbian is going to become a Linux "matter". :guitar:

It's just going to become open source. It's still not Linux.

Psumi
December 19th, 2009, 03:10 PM
No linux out-of-the-box ready dial-up modem? Okay, I guess I'll be paying 60 USD a month for cable. :(

Who uses serial ports nowadays? You can just take that out, put the modem in!

Also, people should look into nettops. They take up to 65 Watts of power though.

Groucho Marxist
December 19th, 2009, 03:17 PM
Or has Linux won the Desktop war by killing it?

I was at this site today

http://www.linuxfordevices.com/c/a/News/NorhTec-Gecko-Surfboard/

thing what a cool idea it is and how small we can take what a computer is, when I had a bit of an epiphany. With all the smart phones out there that surf the web, answer emails etc. most of which is powered by Linux, take that with the netbooks where the latest figures from Dell and an independent consulting firm both show that Linux is on more then a 1/3 of all netbooks sold, and with the market posed for the new generation of tablets again powered by Linux, I had to ask myself where is the old standard Desktop in all this?

In my mind at least, consumers are moving toward smaller more mobile devices for the bulk of their computer needs. Looking at the trends, its as if we (the public) are making a paradigm shift from machines that are vastly over powered for our needs, to machines fulfill our needs and are highly mobile.

While you can get Windows (XP and 7) on netbooks there seems a dissatisfaction with their performance, it seems more and more Windows netbook owners are trying out Linux to get that snappy performance they want. Apples iPhone is still no.1, but with them stuck in a contract with AT&T until July many feel that Apples's share could be seriously eroded by Linux powered smart phones in the coming months. It should be noted that Windows isn't even in the game with Windows CE.

So my thought is while Linux may never win the Desktop wars, it is in a very strong position to be top dog for a whole new generation of computing.

Speaking from the point of view of broadcasters and those in the film industry, Linux, or UNIX-based computers are definitely what are used by the best in non-linear video editing. From the stand-point of the average computer user, I can see mobility playing a key role in determining purchases.

cascade9
December 19th, 2009, 04:34 PM
$99? I'm temped. Seems like it could be a cute little testing machine. Pity its using an AC->DC power brick, that isn't something I've ever liked.


In my mind at least, consumers are moving toward smaller more mobile devices for the bulk of their computer needs. Looking at the trends, its as if we (the public) are making a paradigm shift from machines that are vastly over powered for our needs, to machines fulfill our needs and are highly mobile.

Speak for yourself on 'overpowered'. Desktops might be that for some users, but I actually like having some serious number-crunching power when I rip audio-> .flac or DVD->.avi.

I actually like being able to work on my own machine, buy parts easily without having to go through some tier 1 manufacturer and pay the extra they always seem to put on normal prices.


No linux out-of-the-box ready dial-up modem? Okay, I guess I'll be paying 60 USD a month for cable. :(

Who uses serial ports nowadays? You can just take that out, put the modem in!

Also, people should look into nettops. They take up to 65 Watts of power though.

Modems? Gah. Who uses modems anymore? LOL. Most of the decent hardware modems I've seen are serial anyway LMAO. No idea how much ADSL costs where you are, but here, its cheaper to use ADSL than dial-up. Besides being faster it doesnt tie up your phone line when its used.

Psumi
December 19th, 2009, 04:54 PM
Modems? Gah. Who uses modems anymore? LOL. Most of the decent hardware modems I've seen are serial anyway LMAO. No idea how much ADSL costs where you are, but here, its cheaper to use ADSL than dial-up. Besides being faster it doesnt tie up your phone line when its used.

DSL costs About 30 USD/mo, we only have AT&T DSL where we live, and TDS doesn't offer DSL in most places here. We don't have much to offer in cable either, hence why our cable rates are so high too.

Not to mention, at about 2 in the morning, or whenevr someone called the home, the DSL would drop out for about 5-20 minutes.

wmcbrine
December 19th, 2009, 05:12 PM
Not to mention, at about 2 in the morning, or whenevr someone called the home, the DSL would drop out for about 5-20 minutes.You're supposed to put filters on your regular phone devices to prevent that. The 2 am thing is probably from something dialing out automatically, like a TiVo.

hoppipolla
December 19th, 2009, 05:13 PM
Possibly but I never considered the "desktop" war as being limited to Desktop PCs, it's just the immediate workspace an individual computer user controls on their computer, whether that is a desktop, laptop or netbook. Does that make sense? That's why it's referred to as "Desktop" and "Server", because Linux has always been known as a server OS.

Netbook has kinda thrown another one in there, but I don't think I've ever considered the term "Desktop OS" to refer to physical desktop computers.


EDIT -- and yeah the number of platforms will increase, but I believe there will always be a "desktop", or at least for a long time to come.

Riffer
December 19th, 2009, 05:13 PM
Er, not really. Linux make a up about 6% of the smartphone market. It's all about Symbian 60 and BlackBerry OS, with iPhone and WinMo battling it out for third and fourth place.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Smartphone_2009.svg

My mistake, I thought BlackBerry used Linux or a Unix derivative. My comment about SmartPhones and Windows is still fair

http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20091215/waiting-for-winmo/

blogs like this is fairly common.

hoppipolla
December 19th, 2009, 05:15 PM
Er, not really. Linux make a up about 6% of the smartphone market. It's all about Symbian 60 and BlackBerry OS, with iPhone and WinMo battling it out for third and fourth place.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f4/Smartphone_2009.svg

Android is Linux...

Riffer
December 19th, 2009, 05:35 PM
Speak for yourself on 'overpowered'. Desktops might be that for some users, but I actually like having some serious number-crunching power when I rip audio-> .flac or DVD->.avi.


Oh I'm not ready to give up my Desktop yet and as you pointed out there are a few things that you need serious computing power in order to do. The point I was trying to make is that for most users they/we don't need that power for the vast majority of the computer tasks that we do.

One of the trends that I didn't mention is that people are having multiple computers, from a desktop to a netbook to a smartphone. And out of those I wonder which ones get used the most.

Hyper Tails
December 19th, 2009, 05:46 PM
They can always make energy afincent desktops

SunnyRabbiera
December 19th, 2009, 05:49 PM
For me Linux has its best chance in the mobile/netbook market, even if it never gets the desktop there are many other things that linux can dominate at.

gnomeuser
December 19th, 2009, 05:52 PM
I was going to try to say something useful but gnomeuser pretty much summed it up for me. I'll always have a desktop for photo editing but if it wasn't for that single task, I wouldn't own a desktop. Not even for gaming anymore.

Thank you, one side effect of this is likely going to be that as time passes the desktop itself will become more appliance like as well. If all you do is photo editing, video editing and fullscreen internet then the hardware demands could be kept down. The form factor of the device itself might also change.

I think this will be good in several ways, you'd get a centralized storage for all your things and houses might in the future be built to present your local cloud, network with the neighbors. Additionally as tasks take place on so many devices the demands on the desktop are fewer and you will be able to get by with less demanding hardware which will be suitable for longer. In the end your energy bill and the environment should win on this count (naturally if you change smartphones every 6 months.. likely not to matter).

Ylon
December 19th, 2009, 06:24 PM
It's just going to become open source. It's still not Linux.

Do you realize that if Windows was Open Source today Linux would be able to make run any possible PC-Compatible hardware ever made?



Yes, I know that hardware driver are still closed sources, just take a moment to realize what I am exactly talking about.


Even if not directly, Symbian is going to become a Linux "matter".

JDShu
December 19th, 2009, 06:32 PM
I don't think that netbooks or mobile devices will completely replace desktops or traditional laptops, simply because of the screen size. My parents cannot work on netbooks because their eyes are not good enough to look at the tiny screen. Perhaps when a physically resizeable monitor comes onto the market, then it might start happening.

MickS
December 19th, 2009, 06:46 PM
What I would like to see is something like my Acer One but with a detachable lid/screen so I could plug it into my big monitor and sound system when at home and put the lid back on to use it portably.


Mick

NoaHall
December 19th, 2009, 07:20 PM
I'm never giving up power, why would I? I don't understand these relations with pathetic computers.

Psumi
December 19th, 2009, 07:39 PM
You're supposed to put filters on your regular phone devices to prevent that. The 2 am thing is probably from something dialing out automatically, like a TiVo.

We had filters on every one of the jacks, didn't make a bit 'o difference.


Do you realize that if Windows was Open Source today Linux would be able to make run any possible PC-Compatible hardware ever made?

ReactOS?

HappyFeet
December 19th, 2009, 07:46 PM
personally I think only (no offence intended-wink) idiots use mobile internet devices, phones ect, when almost everywhere has an attainable desktop PC, why use mobile. #2 if you can't let go of the interweb for 10 frickin frackin minutes to an hour, then you need to get leighed in the hawaiian sense of the word! Peace, oh yeah I've got tux tatted on my arm and I can still let go.

I agree. What did people did people do before cell phones and mini laptops? There is way too much self-imposed reliance on these devices. It's too bad peoples lives are more virtual than real.

Btw, post a pic of your tat. Mine is attached below.

RiceMonster
December 19th, 2009, 07:50 PM
Do you realize that if Windows was Open Source today Linux would be able to make run any possible PC-Compatible hardware ever made?

Curious how you've come to this conclusion. Just because it's open source doesn't mean it'll work with Linux, be ported to Linux, etc, etc. Look at ZFS, for example.

arvevans
December 19th, 2009, 07:56 PM
Seems that this question "Is Desktop dead" may be part of a larger issue. Evolution of how we use the Internet, what is on it, and how we access Internet based applications will probably control whether we use tiny-screens or desktops.
Original Internet (Darpa-net & Mil net) use was for information transfer, information storage & retrieval, and email. With blogging, social-interfacing, and advertising we have seen a change in the overall focus of Internet and how it is used. Much of the previously available web site hosting (Yahoo/Geocities, Google,etc.) have gone away...indicating that on-line information availability has decreased in value and availability. Most recently part of the change has included personal on-line ad-hoc storage and on-line applications to utilize that storage. This evolution seems to reflect both social and technological changes in how we perceive ourselves, how we see the Internet, and what tools we have available to use this resource.
Cloud-based computing (i.e. on-line applications and storage) is usable for both tiny-screen applications and those which work best with a larger screen or desktop work environment. Only time, and advertiser support, will tell us who can get by with tiny-screens versus which functions require a larger viewing area to be effective. Personal view is that co-mingling of advertisements (they pay for what we use) will probably make larger viewing areas (desktops) the primary view into the network for the near future, and maybe longer-term as well.

DarkLilith
December 19th, 2009, 08:04 PM
I don't understand these relations with pathetic computers.

I agree! I always walk past the netbooks in stores now and think to myself "why would I want that? If I want a mobile computer, I can use a laptop and actually see what I'm doing".

Despite the fact that I use laptops for most of my day-to-day stuff, there are things I still use my desktop for. That and even though I find laptops very convenient, and occasionally use my phone for internet purposes, desktops are just so convenient because you can change pretty much whatever you want on them yourself.

I think they are trying to get rid of the desktop, but people will hang on to them either based on power factors, or just the fact that they can easily replace any part they want.

CJ Master
December 20th, 2009, 12:09 AM
Contact me when netbooks and smartphones can play Crysis on Very High with 4x AA.

Ylon
December 20th, 2009, 12:50 AM
ReactOS?

Curious how you've come to this conclusion. Just because it's open source doesn't mean it'll work with Linux, be ported to Linux, etc, etc. Look at ZFS, for example.

I am not talking about make portion of Windows run in Linux, but having a "open" look to the rules on which Hardware manufacturer are imposed to. ReactOS is (obviously) unable to support such things: it watch what driver do, and reply in it's own language (likely Wine do). I talk about have a dictionary to learn the whole language (cut out all the Microsoft's stupid slang)




Symbian is interesting, also, because it will be the first effective OpenSource OS using Microkernel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kernel_(computing)#Microkernels)'s technology (someone say the overrated "holy grail" for OSes) even Microsoft is unable to suppy one (windows is monolithic+microkernel mixed)

Psumi
December 20th, 2009, 01:19 AM
I am not talking about make portion of Windows run in Linux, but having a "open" look to the rules on which Hardware manufacturer are imposed to. ReactOS is (obviously) unable to support such things: it watch what driver do, and reply in it's own language (likely Wine do). I talk about have a dictionary to learn the whole language (cut out all the Microsoft's stupid slang)

Wine's goal is software compatibility, not hardware compatibility.

phrostbyte
December 20th, 2009, 01:27 AM
It's not dead, but the smartphone market growth has been explosive in comparison. :) Netbooks too are fast growing.

BrokenKingpin
December 20th, 2009, 05:33 AM
I am a power user and like a full powered machine, as I demand a lot out of my PC. I do see the need for netbooks and the like, but they are not for me. I think there will always be a demand for full powered PCs as long as video games are still popular.

Nerd King
December 20th, 2009, 07:13 AM
I am a power user and like a full powered machine, as I demand a lot out of my PC. I do see the need for netbooks and the like, but they are not for me. I think there will always be a demand for full powered PCs as long as video games are still popular.
I too demand a full-featured PC. However games won't save PC gaming. Have you not noticed that there's not much being released these days? Windows gaming is all but dead, and that's one of the major reasons behind the long-term decline of Windows.

Paqman
December 20th, 2009, 11:43 AM
I don't really see why both can't coexist. Computing is going to become a lot more ubiquitous. A lot of us already have a reasonably powerful computer in our pockets, pretty soon it won't be unusual to have another in your TV, and another in the kitchen. A lot of devices will become networked (ie: fridges, cars, etc). And everybody will have a server at home in a few years.

But none of that is a compelling reason to not have a more powerful multipurpose desktop PC in the house somewhere.

stinger30au
December 20th, 2009, 12:20 PM
i think the desktop has a very long life left

Bölvağur
December 20th, 2009, 02:44 PM
just to let everyone know, but I think it is not wise to say a "your moma" joke in this thread. Just something that sprung into my mind when I saw the topic.

cascade9
December 20th, 2009, 04:15 PM
DSL costs About 30 USD/mo, we only have AT&T DSL where we live, and TDS doesn't offer DSL in most places here. We don't have much to offer in cable either, hence why our cable rates are so high too.

Not to mention, at about 2 in the morning, or whenevr someone called the home, the DSL would drop out for about 5-20 minutes.

Lame. Very, very lame. I cant believe that its possible to get cheaper ADSL in regional australia than in the US. Its easy to get ADSL2+ (24576/1024 max speed) 3.33GB plans for $10 a month here. That is about as much data per month than I did on heavy dialup use (10hrs a night, 100MB+ useage per day).

Counting call costs, ADSL is far cheaper here. (I would have been spending about 30cents per call x 30 + a few extra for dropouts = $10 LOL. Thats without paying for the dualup account).

BTW, I'm unsure about how AT&T charges stuff, but it seems that there is a $19.95 ADSL plan from them. Of course, its really slow (768/384) but it should be faster than dialup (and of course, being the US, there is no mention of caps). If you have to pay call costs and for a dialup account, its possible that ADSL could still work out cheaper than dialup....