Where will Linux be in 2 years?

[ade234uk]

I was thinking there are great strides being made again this year.

I just saw that Video of Novell Linux got to say WOW.

Also seen screenshots of KDE4 again Excellent but I still prefer gnome but its great to see how vibrant the whole community is, not just Ubuntu.

Myself I am using CX Office 5 and it runs dreamweaver MX and Adobe photoshop with no problems for me which allowed to migrate to Ubuntu full time5 months ago. I dont use Windows anymore.

The only thing we need is just some more games. I miss Sim City 4 so much. I was wondering where we will see Linux for gaming over the next 2 years.

Do you reckon companies will be providing native Linux ports or do you think Crossover Office / Cadega / Wine will be good enough to run most games without any problems.

Gaming is one area where Linux will score big. It would be great just to be able to stick a Windows CD in and play any game. I heard great improvments are being made with Direct X for the next version of CX Office.

[wrtpeeps]

if linux had enough games, I for one would probably ditch windows. This might improve in the next few years, but i doubt it will happen anytime soon.

[xequence]

It will be exactly like it is now, but maybe a bit more market share.

[gord]

cedega/wine will allways be behind on new technologys so i can hardly see that as a viable gaming platform for newer games and with the way microsoft is handling opengl with vista i can only see more games geting developed with directx and less getting developed for linux.

i see linux being much bigger with bussinesses though, but im sure people two years ago thinking about what linux would be like now would by just as wrong as im going to be ;)

[poofyhairguy]

Where will Linux be in 2 years?

On my desktop. And on most of the embedded market (I bet in that time you will have to go out of your way to get a cell phone that does not run Linux).

But on the desktop? Who knows honestly. Hopefully better.

[Derek Djons]

I think if we look at current major projects currently under development, these will be more feature rich over two years.

Personally I think the upcoming two years will also be spent a lot organizing conferences, small media commercials, promotional messages and more. The action of RedHat publishing those three kick-*** videos I think is really something to remind for the upcoming two years.

[Qrk]

Everywhere

In two years Linux won't have Microsoft's market share. But Linux is already on just about every type of computer imaginable and gaining share in all of them. From Palms and smartphones to desktops and servers to supercomputers, Linux will grow.

I think two years from now Linux will break 5% on the desktop, double from where it is now. (2.6%) Well, actually, it may have already.

[arctic]

Linux will be at roughly 7% market share (optimistic prognosis), it will ship with some computers (HP and Mandriva sell already complete Linux machines), It will gain a significant market share in Latin America. That's what I think.

[ember]

I agree with xequence - basically not too many things will change in the operating system world, not because Linux is not becoming more advanced, but because it will take a lot more than two years for the average not-computer-related people to realise that there are alternatives to Windows.

[arctic]

... it will take a lot more than two years for the average not-computer-related people to realise that there are alternatives to Windows.Definitely. Most people don't even know what an Operating System is. They only know computers... :-k

[mstlyevil]

I wouldn't be surprised if Linux was on 7% or more of the computers in use right now. (Desktop) It is hard to tell actual numbers when the product is given away and not sold like propietary oses. Since most computer manufactuers refuse to sell Linux preloaded boxes, there is no reliable way to really determine how many people actually have installed and used Linux either as the only OS or in a dual boot.

[Bragador]

But if you talk about linux to someone different each week who doesn't know about Linux, then more people will know it exists. After that, people will be able to make their own mind in time.

[Bandit]

Linux in general is making great strides, but I dont belive that is what is going to gain market share for linux desktop systems.
I leave all that up to VISTA. I think M$ is digging their self a grave with VISTA.
Many users can not afford a new high-end PC just to run VISTA.
Most users think of a PC as a appliance and expect them to last as long as there microwave oven.
IMHO, most will continue to use XP for a long time. Some will shell out the cash for a high-end VISTA box, others will look for other alternitives such as linux. I dont see a imediate miricale happening, but I wouldnt be supprised if in 2 years that 1 out of ever 20 households run a linux box.
I may be over enthusiastic, but in 5 years I belive 1 out of ever 10 house holds will be running linux.
Cheers,
Joey

[poofyhairguy]

I may be over enthusiastic, but in 5 years I belive 1 out of ever 10 house holds will be running linux.


I say its already that way. If you add all the Linux cells phones, TiVo boxes, wifi routers, appliances, etc.

[gord]

i think that heavly depends on where you are, i wouldn't be supprised if i were the only one in my town (around 100,000 people) with linux in any way shape or form

[LoathRevolver]

I hope Linux never becomes a mainstream Desktop environment. The major appeal of Linux is that it's an alternative to the mainstream bologna.

[mstlyevil]

I hope Linux never becomes a mainstream Desktop environment. The major appeal of Linux is that it's an alternative to the mainstream bologna.

If that happens then you always have BSD or Darwin to fall back on.

[briancurtin]

it will have 1-2% more marketshare in two years

[Stormy Eyes]

Xgl will be stable, and so will E17. I'll see posts all over this forum asking for help with getting Duke Nukem Forever to run under Cedega.

[Bragador]

LOL

Duke Nukem Forever... I forgot about that one.

Best urban legend / joke ever !

[Deaf_Head]

If a linux distro gets really good at power saving settings and starts getting shipped with buisness oriented computers I could see it shoot to 3 or 4 percent easily. Honestly though, alot depends on the success(or hopefully lack of sucess) of microsoft's anti-linux campaigns. =\

[bored2k]

In two years I expect to see more on Linux from the general media. Like poofy said, I also expect to see a big part of cellphones and other "gadgets" to switch to linux.

It really depends on just how much the "big guy" spends on anti-Linux advertisement and how many companies/universities/et al he decides to pay for.

[Virogenesis]

I see personaly see linux being in the workplace if people start promoting it the NHS have a big deal with redhat or is it Novell I can't remember but its big and well countries like china, france and germany are really pushing linux.
It will grow in numbers We won't get drivers still but the apps are becoming more mature usability is becoming apart of linux.
GTK apps have come along gnome is in a usable state I do believe it would be better when they drop the crap from gnome but yeah.

Linux is going to have more success Its only a matter of time till we start seeing apps like photoshop appear.

[tact]

Here it is now... 2yrs + later. Hardy Heron in beta and looking the best release ever.

Have a read back over the 2yo predictions and comments and smile. :)


Cheers

[drascus]

Wow I posted before I read all this over. Cool thanks for bumping this up its cool to look back on.

[tact]

ya I stumbled on it while searching out something else... the "where will we be in 2 yrs" struck a chord when I noticed the date was 2yrs ago. :)

[tubasoldier]

ya I stumbled on it while searching out something else... the "where will we be in 2 yrs" struck a chord when I noticed the date was 2yrs ago. :)

I too found this very interesting. 2 years later Linux is still my main Operating System. Since then I have added OSX into the mix, but still prefer my slower Linux machines than to the sweet iMac I have. And 2 years from now, it will still be my choice of OS on my laptop and desktop, and if movie editing and creation catches up on the end user desktop I'll probably ditch OSX for Linux on that machine as well.

[wozzinator]

I don't think Linux will every really be a comparable gaming platform in comparison to Mac OSX or Windows unless the companies that create the games get a real kick in the butt from the Linux community. Although it seems that with Wine, the more popular the game, the sooner it gets ported to work with Wine.

[tubasoldier]

Am I one of the few who thinks games aren't the real kicker? Games don't matter as much as corporate and government adoption of the Linux desktop.

[chucky chuckaluck]

are we up to 1% usage yet?

[Dekkon]

Am I one of the few who thinks games aren't the real kicker? Games don't matter as much as corporate and government adoption of the Linux desktop.

I agree, Microsoft strives in the business area far more then home use with XP(Not vista, it shifted more to home use). If you want some games, then buy an Xbox(Mine is freaking awesome) or a PS3 if you really hate Microsoft is that bad.

[kevin11951]

I agree, Microsoft strives in the business area far more then home use with XP(Not vista, it shifted more to home use). If you want some games, then buy an Xbox(Mine is freaking awesome) or a PS3 if you really hate Microsoft is that bad.

I have a ps3 ill give it like a.. 7/10, and xbox gets like 6/10, Oh wait... microsoft makes it!? 0/10! :)

[coit]

Linux will be in the same position it is now.
Unless you use application installers and stop trying to convince the average user that they should learn to use the command line interface,Linux users on home PC's will always be the small minority.
Windows users hate Automatic Updates and Genuine Advantage and Vista bloat,but do not want to go back to school to learn how to do what is automatically done in Windows.
This is reality,face it.

[madjr]

Linux will be in the same position it is now.
Unless you use application installers and stop trying to convince the average user that they should learn to use the command line interface,Linux users on home PC's will always be the small minority.
Windows users hate Automatic Updates and Genuine Advantage and Vista bloat,but do not want to go back to school to learn how to do what is automatically done in Windows.
This is reality,face it.

yes, so true.

i would agree what wine, wine-doors or playonlinux should be better supported by the community.

They need more funds and volunteers.

Also, wine needs to be better updated in the repos.

[ZarathustraDK]

I think Linux has come a long way in 2 years. Sure, looking at individual applications may only show an incremental change for the better (compiz-fusion is crazy in this aspect though), but what's more important is the framework for development that has been introduced. The uptake of launchpad-like platforms, more users who can contribute, the PR-revolution that Linux has enjoyed for not being 'just a geek OS', etc. all spell a sweet future for open source.

10 years ago Microsoft was in Windows 98 land, while Linux was still little more than a glorified DOS-prompt, sure, we had windows and colors and stuff, but some of the most important stuff still had to be done from a terminal. Today we're on par (or better even) than the latest and greatest. That's a picture that speaks for itself. Let that continue.

As for games, well, the problem with those is that they're stuff that require private visions, not community effort. I'd have little interest and/or expectations to the genius of a book/movie/game created by millions of people instead of single person, simply because such entertainment-things require plots/twists and so on. For instance, I couldn't imagine something like the Saw-movies come out of a community-effort, because it's so twisted, warped and removed from common thinking that the majority of people would not think of it. Too many cooks in the kitchen spoil the food when it comes to these things. So what we have to do is warrant the attention of game-producers to make games for Linux.

What's infinitely more important is to get production-tools like Photoshop, AutoCAD and the likes on the wagon, and show that there are big savings to be had if you can conduct your work on Linux instead of Windows. Governments, companies and other dumb people don't care as much for the philosophy of Linux as they do about money, so that's the selling point we gotta make.

We could really use a campaign like Firefox had ("spread fire" I think it was called). I mean, am I the only one who feel the urge to stand on a soapbox at the trainstation passing out live-cd's? :)

[Barrucadu]

I mean, am I the only one who feel the urge to stand on a soapbox at the trainstation passing out live-cd's? :)
No, but I gave away my only disk and lost my soapbox :(