In one year from now; who will win more marketshare Android or iPhone?

[amitabhishek]

This year alone 12 Android devices have appeared! Google has just released new SDK for Android (http://www.cnet.com/8301-19736_1-10384180-251.html?tag=TOCmoreStories.0#addcomm). For business users Exchange support has started appearing on more and more devices. I have used Android phone and can vouch that its memory management is far superior. Also there are more users who can write programs on Java than objective C (which iPhone uses). Andriod app. store has already more than 10,000 apps (dated data; don't know the current count). I guess soon there will be an app for everything ;).

Google is rapidly introducing updates to Android, each named after a delicious calorie laden dessert. Version 1.5 (cupcake), version 1.6 (donut). Version 2.0 (éclair) is expected to appear on the Motorola Droid.

So what does the future looks like? Who will take down whom?

[falconindy]

I'd be really happy to see the Droid become a problem for Apple. It looks like an absolutely fantastic device and reviews for it so far have been stellar. The market would be well served if other companies were to follow Motorola's innovation and produce more Android2 phones.

It would be even more amazing if this wasn't the last phone Google has had a hand in designing. So sleek... mmm...

/cant wait for current contract to expire

[note32]

in the future the iPhone will be popular main because lot of people love apple so it seems, to me. and Android will gain popularity with time its still new to the market i think but well see ;)

[amitabhishek]

Waiting with bated breath for this device to succeed. Personally want to see Motorola do well...I still remember how I hacked their Linux Phone (a1200) to get a bash prompt.

[ElSlunko]

Comes down to advertisement. iPhone is the cool kid on the block with it's sleek interface. But the lack of some key features like multitasking causes the phone to lose some luster for power users. Of course most people who own an iphone, pay the extra fees for it per month, have next to no use for a smart phone over a regular cell phone.

Again, comes down to marketing and Google is attacking fast and hard (iDon't commercials). With the next batch of better and faster phones I think we'll see the tides beginning to turn for google.

I feel like a real dope however, resigning my contract with ATT. No android phone in sight for my carrier :(

[murderslastcrow]

It really is all about the advertising. However, I think people will be glad to know that Android-based devices don't require a whole lot of cracking. Then there are other systems like the N900 that actually are Linux desktops inside of a phone. I think the variety in the market may be a good thing to differentiate mobile brands, and open peoples' eyes to realize that the iPhone is just the iPhone.

[Nevon]

I'm pretty confident that Android will grow a whole lot faster than the iPhone currently is. However, Apple has already sold about a gigazillion iPhones - so I'm not so sure Android will be able to catch up.

[ElSlunko]

My favorite stat in those gazillion sold are the saps who bought each one as it was released. I mean if you can afford, more power to you, but that's a lot of money.

[cb951303]

IMHO, in 1 year iPhone will still be way more popular. But given more time, Android has great potential.

One big problem for android is the lack of hardware compatibility among manufacturers. That's big turn off for developers. Different resolutions, (non)multi-touch screens, slider keyboards etc...

Oh, BTW manufacturers have their own proprietary UIs for their android phones now. Like Motorola's MOTOBLUR or HTC's Sense UI. I found it very disturbing. I'm not against proprietary apps in the Android Market but I would prefer my UI (which is a basic and necessary tool to operate your phone) to be as free as possible.

In one year I can see Android beating Windows Mobile to dust though :p

[earthpigg]

i like Maemo better.

just posting here so i can find this thread 12 months from now.

[SunnyRabbiera]

Googles been aggressive with its latest adds for the android, so the future looks good for it.

[amitabhishek]

i like Maemo better.

just posting here so i can find this thread 12 months from now.

We would love to see that...Nokia should dump Symbian at least on the high end phones its about time.

/So many phones so meager resources :(

[cb951303]

We would love to see that...Nokia should dump Symbian at least on the high end phones its about time.

/So many phones so meager resources :(

I think they shouldn't. especially now that it goes open source.

[Pasdar]

(Google) Android has the winning formula. The reason for this is thats its a free operating system that may freely be used by developers and manufacturers. This makes it very attractive for manufacturers to use. Just look at the news about new android mobiles being released or plan to get released.

This is why the guys from symbian are so angry and called Google evil and open sourced their OS. They know they are at the point of extinction and will die soon if they don't do something very quickly.

IPone will stay what it is, just like all Apple products... expensive products from a small percentage of people with (largely) a lack of (indepth) knowledge about technology, lots of money to spend and want to show off.

[maflynn]

I'm not sure we'll have any winners. With the competition iPhone will continually get better and over time, android based phones will increase marketshare.

I think in general there will be room for both. I think palm mis-fired on their phones and they'll be a distant third and continue to be a distant third.

[amitabhishek]

Ithink palm mis-fired on their phones and they'll be a distant third and continue to be a distant third.

Palm has great product as well as the follow up product (Pixie). But the story ends there. There is no scale. I guess Palm is secretly scouting for a buyer-possibly Microsoft. Probably that explains the speed of development (or lack of it) of a Windows Mobile.

[SuperSonic4]

The iPhone because the public prefer shiny things to working things which is an extension of the general idiocy about

[maflynn]

Palm has great product as well as the follow up product (Pixie). But the story ends there.
From what I've read even their highly touted webos is mere smoke and mirrors. The software is unable to handle the complexity and depth of programs that other platforms, like android and the iPhone can. I read somewhere that performance goes down the hopper on some not too intensive tasks and it unable to handle games like the iPhone (I have no idea how android handles games).

[j.bell730]

I just read something on Slashdot about it (http://mobile.slashdot.org/story/09/10/09/1532217/Analyst-Predicts-Android-Overtaking-iPhone-In-2012?from=rss). Android is predicted to overtake the iPhone in 2012.

(cue end of the world jokes :P)

[BuffaloX]

The Android will probably Win, smartphones will get cheaper and cheaper, Apple will refuse to sell as cheap as Nokia and Samsung and even Motorola.

Lower prices will probably mean that Smartphone market will increase tremendously, leaving Apple with a smaller share of a bigger market.

Android will win, but it doesn't necessarily follow that Apple looses.
Good cheap Android smartphones, will probably make it harder for Apple.

There's a whole army of Androids comming within a few months, each will be marketed, some to different segments, prices will be much more competitive, Apple will probably soon become a minor player like they were against the PCs of the 90's.

[m3topaz]

During 2010, Android will overtake iPhone in market share. Android gains from product variety: I've looked at the HTC Magic, Hero, Sony Ericsson Rachael X10, G1, and a few other devices. There is broad manufacturer support, and the Android platform is above average. When 240x320 devices like the Tattoo hit the mainstream in volume, the iPhone will be crushed by variety.
* Unless of course * Apple quickly zap out multiple devices with clamshell, physical keyboard, mini, multi-tasking, decent camera, video... The sort of stuff that multiple market segments want.
No harm to Apple in pursuing the market they have: the fanbois love 'em and the device is genuinely significant in historical terms. Can they leap ahead by a big margin and take a big chunk of the smartphone market while the true volume giants lie down? I doubt it. Android is going to make some big inroads here.

[SomeGuyDude]

Android will win for one simple reason: Google. People ADORE their Googles, and having a phone that's seamlessly tied into them will prove a FAR greater selling point and convenience than the status symbol of using an Apple product.

[hanzomon4]

That's a tough question... Apple has the multimedia, slick packaging, and innovative ideas. Google has the web, numbers, and choice... I don't see anything particularly innovative about Android, it's like everyone waits for Apple then catches up. But Apple has one phone, on one carrier. It's a great phone but Android is on many phones and many carriers.

I honestly don't think any one company is going to score big like MS did with PCs. T

[blur xc]

I can't see how Android could not surpass Apple. The iPhone is one phone, made by one company, that is only sold through one carrier. There were rumors of Verizon picking up the iPhone, but it looks as if they ditched that route in favor of the Droid.

I read somewhere that there will be 30 android phones on the market by Christmas of this year alone, on a variety of carriers. How can one phone, on one carrier, compete with that? They have market share now, because for a long time there wasn't anything close to as cool as the iPhone available, so it'll take a bit for Android phones to catch up, but imo, it's inevitable. Phones don't last forever, so when peoples' iPhones take a dump, they'll have to consider buying a new one, or switching to something else. Heck, isn't Dell even making an Android phone to be carried by AT&T? Maybe they see the sign on the wall, and have their exit strategy in place for when the iPhone empire falls.

Oh yeah, just remembered- on top of that, unless Apple fixes the Safari browser on the iPhone to allow plug-ins, it can't have flash. The work-a-round is to have flash enabled apps, ie. the Youtube app, but AFAIK, Android phones are all getting flash now... My wife is greatly annoyed about not being able to shop at flash enabled websites on her iphone...

BM

[SomeGuyDude]

I don't see anything particularly innovative about Android, it's like everyone waits for Apple then catches up.

Explain this. I hear it all the time, but how is Apple so amazingly innovative? I've never seen Apple innovate in any way. What they CAN do is make things shiny and colorful, but it's not like the iPhone did anything that Blackberries and other smartphones weren't already doing. The iPod was far from an original product. Then, beyond those two... what?

[hanzomon4]

Explain this. I hear it all the time, but how is Apple so amazingly innovative? I've never seen Apple innovate in any way. What they CAN do is make things shiny and colorful, but it's not like the iPhone did anything that Blackberries and other smartphones weren't already doing. The iPod was far from an original product. Then, beyond those two... what?

I see what you're saying.. But ask yourself what smart phones were like before the iphone and then ask yourself what they were like after the iphone. Innovation is not the same as invent, you get me?

[SomeGuyDude]

I see what you're saying.. But ask yourself what smart phones were like before the iphone and then ask yourself what they were like after the iphone. Innovation is not the same as invent, you get me?

True, but to me the iPhone wasn't a revelation, rather Apple's considered such a trendsetter that companies copied it unnecessarily. Really the ONLY thing the iPhone did was give us a touchscreen that worked well for fingers instead of a stylus. I find nothing about the iPhone's OS to be that incredible, just it has a great browser and picks up touches accurately.

[Warpnow]

Android overall, but no single android device will outsell the iphone.

[Crunchy the Headcrab]

Android will win for one simple reason: Google. People ADORE their Googles, and having a phone that's seamlessly tied into them will prove a FAR greater selling point and convenience than the status symbol of using an Apple product.
I don't trust Google. They have way too much power. Soon they will know I said this on here if they don't already.

[hanzomon4]

I don't trust Google. They have way too much power. Soon they will know I said this on here if they don't already.

They already do (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=com.ubuntu%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=kkX&q=%22I+don%27t+trust+Google.+They+have+way+too+muc h+power.+Soon+they+will+know+I+said+this+on+here+i f+they+don%27t+already.%22&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=)

[Warpnow]

They already do (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=com.ubuntu%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&hs=kkX&q=%22I+don%27t+trust+Google.+They+have+way+too+muc h+power.+Soon+they+will+know+I+said+this+on+here+i f+they+don%27t+already.%22&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=)

Mwuhahahahahahahah!!!

[squilookle]

Android is a great platform, I've been using it for a while now with the G1 and I'm very happy with it. I have very few gripes and they get wiped out one by one by the software updates. I do believe the many Android phones put together will overtake the iPhone.

If people don't go with Android for the sake of using Android, I think cheap phones will being some people in, (Example: http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2009/11/03/review_smartphone_t_mobile_pulse/). Once people are familiar with the platform, many will stay with it.

Although things are still up and up for Apple and for the iPhone, and will be for some time, I do believe it is likely that the shine is going to come off both Apple and the iPhone eventually, I think there are a few hints of this happening already.

[murderslastcrow]

Android can be on a host of devices and phones. It comes preinstalled on an increasing number of phones at different costs, so the market's diversified and provides for any phone company.

iPhone is AT&T and has one device with a couple different versions, but generally the same phone, same ridiculously high price.

Where I live, there are ALREADY many more Android-based phones than iPhones. So I think the consumers will make the best decision- Android's had some great marketing, too.

Just shows how far we could get if we marketed Desktop Linux the same way Google, T-Mobile, and HTC market Android.

[NFblaze]

Definitely Android. Everybody loves google. I've seen numerous people my age that already have the G1 from T-mobile, and more and more android based phoens are coming out. Although, the weird thing is I've seen quite a few adults with an iphone. Though, I really do think the Android will succeed, especially since alot of developers will probrably prefer developing for that device rather than Apple.

[Thirtysixway]

I think iPhone has reached its peak more or less. Android is coming out on more and more phones on different networks. Android will have more in a year I bet.