PDA

View Full Version : How long before Ubuntu becomes the biggest OS in the world? Will it happen?



hoppipolla
August 12th, 2009, 06:26 PM
My prediction is by about 12.10 or 13.04, assuming that Google Cloud OSs don't take over! Reasons for this being that by then, it will have adopted KDE 4 fully, and all of the components will be mature and user-friendly enough to appeal to most people :)

I think Microsoft and Apple will have a hard time competing with an OS that looks better, works faster, upgrades automatically, runs on all hardware and offers everything their OSs do and more... for free. lol

I mean can you imagine what KDE 4 with Compiz (which by that point will both be more polished and work fluidly together) and fully-featured, user-friendly configuration tools will be like? Personally, I don't see how commercial OSs can compete...

But I could be wrong! So what do you think? :)

Poll coming!


Hoppi ^_^

Tibuda
August 12th, 2009, 06:32 PM
Do you think some eye-kandy would break MS lock-in? There are real reasons for Linux not being so popular: Windows pre-installed in PCs, and professional software availability (AutoCAD).

FuturePilot
August 12th, 2009, 06:34 PM
I don't think it ever will be the #1 OS, and honestly, I wouldn't like it to be in that position. I would like it to be just popular enough for hardware manufacturers to officially support it.

Skripka
August 12th, 2009, 06:36 PM
I think it might happen in recurring discussions...cough cough.

NightwishFan
August 12th, 2009, 06:38 PM
I think Ubuntu will gain more support as times goes on. Although I do not see us toppling Microsoft in the near future unless they really mess up. Even if no more people buy Windows 7 and Vista, a huge majority will stay with Windows Xp, because it is erroneously believed to somehow be better than the new Vista and 7. Well it may work better on ancient hardware, but not much better.

I would like more free software support, upstream for everyone. That way I can actually get hardware support along with my fast performing system I can completely control and redistribute.

Windows for me is not fast performing, under my control, or able to be redistributed. When the masses realize this it should contribute to the success of free software. We should really try to get the word out there.

khelben1979
August 12th, 2009, 06:42 PM
I definitely think Linux is the way to go, so I wouldn't be surprised that it get's the most biggest operating system in the world in... perhaps, 20 years.

perlluver
August 12th, 2009, 06:50 PM
I think that if more games, and flash were to work better. Linux could become #2 or maybe even #1. But until Games and Flash work better, Windows and Mac will dominate.

schauerlich
August 12th, 2009, 07:12 PM
For years, people have been predicting Linux's Day of Glory is "just around the corner! if only we do this, this and this." Too bad it never happens.

Go outside more.

KiwiNZ
August 12th, 2009, 07:13 PM
I do not believe that will happen.

ViperChief
August 12th, 2009, 07:26 PM
If by biggest, you are referring to bloat, well, it's on the way there, but I'm not sure if it can beat out Windows on that one. :)

But, as for having the market share. I don't think Ubuntu, or Linux in general, will ever have that. Windows has too good of a stronghold.

I can see Linux getting up to the 30-40% range, but it does need a lot of work before it's possible. I'd love to see it happen, though. Of that 30-40%, Ubuntu will probably have about 40-50%

phrostbyte
August 12th, 2009, 07:26 PM
Your poll doesn't have enough options.

My prediction: A Linux based OS will be #1 within 20 years. :)

Will it be Ubuntu? Maybe, but much more likely if Google or IBM buys it.

Within 100 years I think proprietary software will be a thing of the past.

Within 200 years, nanotech will make most things free, not just software.

hoppipolla
August 12th, 2009, 07:36 PM
For years, people have been predicting Linux's Day of Glory is "just around the corner! if only we do this, this and this." Too bad it never happens.

Go outside more.

I just don't think we've ever been in this position before.

We've never had a GUI which comes this close to beating commercial alternatives, and we've never had a distribution which is this friendly or accessible to people... I think we've now got a pretty fair shot!

I will be encouraging lots of coders to work on the KDE project in particular (I am working on a larger coding/software project so it will tie in quite nicely! lol)

I just can't wait for free software for everyone, it will be really quite something :)

schauerlich
August 12th, 2009, 07:40 PM
I just don't think we've ever been in this position before.

We've never had a GUI which comes this close to beating commercial alternatives, and we've never had a distribution which is this friendly or accessible to people... I think we've now got a pretty fair shot!

I will be encouraging lots of coders to work on the KDE project in particular (I am working on a larger coding/software project so it will tie in quite nicely! lol)

I just can't wait for free software for everyone, it will be really quite something :)

If someone told me this post was written in 2002, I'd believe them.

t0p
August 12th, 2009, 07:43 PM
Linux may become a major player in the OS stakes. But it isn't going to happen for quite some time. And it depends on Windows going from bad to worse. If Microsoft get their act together, Linux may never beconme truly popular.

And although I think Ubuntu's great, I see no reason to assume that it will be the one distro to rule them all. It's good, but so are other distros. And no one knows what other delights may come in the future.

nmccrina
August 12th, 2009, 07:43 PM
If someone told me this post was written in 2002, I'd believe them.

If someone told me this post was written in 2002, I'd believe them.

:P

schauerlich
August 12th, 2009, 07:44 PM
If someone told me this post was written in 2002, I'd believe them.

:P

Well, yes, if someone, in 2002, said they'd believe a post was written in 2002, that'd be pretty believable.

Perhaps I missed the point?

RiceMonster
August 12th, 2009, 07:46 PM
I just don't think we've ever been in this position before.

We've never had a GUI which comes this close to beating commercial alternatives, and we've never had a distribution which is this friendly or accessible to people... I think we've now got a pretty fair shot!

I will be encouraging lots of coders to work on the KDE project in particular (I am working on a larger coding/software project so it will tie in quite nicely! lol)

I just can't wait for free software for everyone, it will be really quite something :)

Considering there is allways development and advancements going on in the Linux world, we'll always be able to say we've never been at the point we are now. It doesn't mean Linux is going to become the #1 operating system or anything. I don't see why that's such a concern of people around here anyway.

ViperChief
August 12th, 2009, 07:49 PM
Linux may become a major player in the OS stakes. But it isn't going to happen for quite some time. And it depends on Windows going from bad to worse. If Microsoft get their act together, Linux may never beconme truly popular.


Which, in my opinion, Microsoft is finally starting to do just that. I've been watching them for a long time and Windows 7 is the first time that I've seen them put a real effort into producing a quality product, even relying on typical user feedback.

A lot has changed since Gates started his departure, and I see even more changing. Linux can no longer rely on the "Microsoft just sucks" mentality and hope that people will start using Linux (which has happened a lot in past years). Microsoft is stepping up their game. As that happens, Linux companies and devs need to step up, as well, if they have any hope of making a dent in the market.

nmccrina
August 12th, 2009, 07:50 PM
Linux may become a major player in the OS stakes. But it isn't going to happen for quite some time. And it depends on Windows going from bad to worse. If Microsoft get their act together, Linux may never beconme truly popular.

And although I think Ubuntu's great, I see no reason to assume that it will be the one distro to rule them all. It's good, but so are other distros. And no one knows what other delights may come in the future.

It doesn't look like Microsoft wants to get their act together. One of their major goals seems to be backwards-compatibility, but it results in unending layers of bloat. They have a cool idea, but don't want to make people mad, so they just add it on top of what's already there and it feels tacked on. Now, Windows 7 has an XP compatibility mode. They just need to cut out the parts that don't work, even if it means killing backwards-compatibility.

nmccrina
August 12th, 2009, 07:51 PM
Well, yes, if someone, in 2002, said they'd believe a post was written in 2002, that'd be pretty believable.

Perhaps I missed the point?

No, that's pretty much all the point there was ;)

RiceMonster
August 12th, 2009, 07:53 PM
It doesn't look like Microsoft wants to get their act together. One of their major goals seems to be backwards-compatibility, but it results in unending layers of bloat. They have a cool idea, but don't want to make people mad, so they just add it on top of what's already there and it feels tacked on. Now, Windows 7 has an XP compatibility mode. They just need to cut out the parts that don't work, even if it means killing backwards-compatibility.

...and then nobody will use Windows 7. How do you expect companies to want to upgrade from XP when their applications they use everyday to get work done will not work with Windows 7? They're not going to bother. Just like when intel goes from 16 to 32bit or 32bit to64bit, they have to make it backwards compatible so people can run their 32bit applications on a 64bit processor. They don't have a choice. People don't want to scrap all their work and restart just to upgrade; it's not worth their time.

KiwiNZ
August 12th, 2009, 07:55 PM
Before Linux or Ubuntu can become even slightly big , say 10-15% ( desktop) a large shift in the usability paradigm is needed.

hoppipolla
August 12th, 2009, 08:12 PM
Before Linux or Ubuntu can become even slightly big , say 10-15% ( desktop) a large shift in the usability paradigm is needed.

I dunno I mean I think we're along the right lines, we just need to keep going (it's so nice to see a distro really focus on user-friendliness and come away with some degree of success!)

nmccrina
August 12th, 2009, 08:16 PM
...and then nobody will use Windows 7. How do you expect companies to want to upgrade from XP when their applications they use everyday to get work done will not work with Windows 7? They're not going to bother. Just like when intel goes from 16 to 32bit or 32bit to64bit, they have to make it backwards compatible so people can run their 32bit applications on a 64bit processor. They don't have a choice. People don't want to scrap all their work and restart just to upgrade; it's not worth their time.

That is a good point. But what happened when Microsoft quit supporting Windows 3.1, 95, and 98? It was probably a pain, but everybody seems to have made the transition (that was a little before my time, lol).

I agree that it cannot happen every release, though. So maybe Midori would be the next place to start over again.

gjoellee
August 12th, 2009, 09:01 PM
Unless Ubuntu does some huge changes, it won't get #1.

hoppipolla
August 13th, 2009, 01:05 AM
Unless Ubuntu does some huge changes, it won't get #1.

What do you think the changes should be?

Chrus
August 13th, 2009, 03:59 AM
The only way Ubuntu is gonna become the big mainstream OS is to get rid of all the command line stuff. I dont mean entirely gone, but to something similar to cmd in windows. Your average user isnt gonna want to typying everything, or opening text files to change settings/configure something. They want point and click.

I know you can now do most things in a GUI now, but theres still a ways to go. Like last week i updated my graphics drivers and when i rebooted i was greeted with a black screen covered in text. Most people are gonna freak out and have no idea what to do if that happens to them.

Dont get me wrong, I dont want to see command line dissapear, i enjoy bashing away on my keyboard to get stuff done. I just dont see Ubuntu (or any linux distro for that matter) becoming mainstream the way it is.

Just my 2 cents.

TheNosh
August 13th, 2009, 04:06 AM
well obviously next year will be "the year of the linux desk top"... "next year" has been "the year of the linux desktop" for the past decade or so.

personally i don't think it will happen until we stop worrying about when it happens (if it happens at all)

raymondh
August 13th, 2009, 04:12 AM
I just want the drivers :)

swong
August 13th, 2009, 04:35 AM
Really cannot see Ubuntu or other Linux distros take over Windows. But it can gain more market share if vendors install it on pre-built computers. At the moment, it's only available on a few select netbooks by Asus and Dell.

And marketing Linux to a broader audience needs to improve, I'm sure the average person on the street may not even heard of Linux.

HermanAB
August 13th, 2009, 04:39 AM
At about 30GB for the whole repository, Linux is already far and away the biggest OS.

What I find funny though is all the posts about Ubuntu usability. If you want wizards, then Ubuntu is the wrong distribution for you! Install Mandriva, Fedora or Suse which has wizards for everything and stop moaning...

KiwiNZ
August 13th, 2009, 04:47 AM
At about 30GB for the whole repository, Linux is already far and away the biggest OS.

What I find funny though is all the posts about Ubuntu usability. If you want wizards, then Ubuntu is the wrong distribution for you! Install Mandriva, Fedora or Suse which has wizards for everything and stop moaning...

Its not moaning and that is an impolite way to put it.
Usability is the key to uptake and growth. If FOSS does not recognise that it will remain a "hobby" desktop OS

starcannon
August 13th, 2009, 04:53 AM
Ubuntu is scheduled to be the biggest OS in the world at the stroke of 12:00:01 January 1, 2012.

jamminbreadman
August 13th, 2009, 04:54 AM
I don't see that ever happening. Linux has too many things that have to be done in a terminal. Also the biggest problem with linux for the common user is the fact that computers usually are not made to be compatible with linux there made for Windows or OSX so it's a pain in the *** to configure everything. I view linux will allways be more for the computer nerds and never become mainstream which many linux users are appy about they would not wawnt it to become a mainstream OS. The only thing I can see it getting popular in would be the world of net books where it is catching on only its a modified version. The reason I say only in netbooks is because it would come pre installed and it would be great for someone like your grandmother to use to just figure out how the internet works and do simple web browsing and thats about it. beyond the netbook world I don't see too much happening maybe theyll go up to like 10-20% useage but will never beat out windows or OSX i seriously even doubt OSX would ever becmome moore mainstream than windows due to cost and there monopoly on hardware which is good in some cases but isn't good when it comes to selling computers to poorer people.

KiwiNZ
August 13th, 2009, 04:55 AM
Ubuntu is scheduled to be the biggest OS in the world at the stroke of 12:00:01 January 1, 2012.

Cool I noted my calendar :P

Katalog
August 13th, 2009, 04:57 AM
I think it will be at least a decade, if ever, at the very least before FOSS and Linux gain enough market share to raise eyebrows.

jrusso2
August 13th, 2009, 05:01 AM
There are always people who believe this was right around the corner.. I have heard this so many times since 96 when I started.

I got so sick of it, I made a bet with a friend in 2005 that in five years Linux would not even have 5% of the desktop.

Well that bet is coming due next year and Linux is still 1%. Right where it was in 2005.

chucky chuckaluck
August 13th, 2009, 05:02 AM
There are always people who believe this was right around the corner.. I have heard this so many times since 96 when I started.

I got so sick of it, I made a bet with a friend in 2005 that in five years Linux would not even have 5% of the desktop.

Well that bet is coming due next year and Linux is still 1%. Right where it was in 2005.

now that's stability!

Eisenwinter
August 13th, 2009, 05:50 AM
Considering there is allways development and advancements going on in the Linux world, we'll always be able to say we've never been at the point we are now. It doesn't mean Linux is going to become the #1 operating system or anything. I don't see why that's such a concern of people around here anyway.
/thread

hoppipolla
August 13th, 2009, 06:39 AM
Ubuntu is scheduled to be the biggest OS in the world at the stroke of 12:00:01 January 1, 2012.

haha that's a wicked post! What worries me is the release that I thought Ubuntu would be huge by (about 12.10) is just before it's supposedly the end of the world (December 21st 2012 i believe o.O)... that's a little concerning.. lol

But yeah I'm with people over the terminal stuff, but I was just assuming it will get phased out as more and more tools and usability features are introduced. I mean it will always be there, it's just about giving users so many tools and wizards and friendly UIs that they never have to actually USE it! lol

Firestem4
August 13th, 2009, 06:57 AM
I know you can now do most things in a GUI now, but theres still a ways to go. Like last week i updated my graphics drivers and when i rebooted i was greeted with a black screen covered in text. Most people are gonna freak out and have no idea what to do if that happens to them.

To be fair this happens quite often in Windows and the average user STILL has no idea what to do and freaks out. Considering the market-share too this happens *more* than often.

However and unfortunately because of the Linux isn't Windows mentality many people have when they see something fail in Linux it is somehow tremendous and doomed to spell out Linux's failure as an OS and legitimate competitor to Mac OSX and Windows.

But when something fails in Windows its not such a big deal. Its typical and people deal with it.

Irony?

madjr
August 13th, 2009, 07:16 AM
i think 2011 and 2012 will be great years for linux (specially thanks to the big Google buzz and of course the great work the community is carrying out as we speak)

anyway in some countries, marketshare WILL make very good shifts , specially in education and government.

i see things as follow in the upcoming years:

-SERVERS #1 (always, no doubts there)

-Smartphones (android on most phones, smartphone market settles, iphone novelty starts to wear out, symbian stays #1 for a while)

-Government and education (big shift here in many countries, Extremely important, even more than going mainstream)

-Devices (mostly using linux kernel, smart devices or 1 task linux devices)

-netbooks (Chrome OS, moblin, ubuntu... more cloud computing, more satisfied users, less dependence on windows. This will depend a lot on Google this time)

-laptops (depends on netbook, but most companies will offer a "visible" linux option, specially used i.e: like geeks.com is doing)

-desktops (most boards will have some kind of linux fastboot OS and lots more linux options, specially used )


the adoption will be better worldwide, except in the USA market (homeland) where MsfT and Apple offer way to many incentives (including bribery, Whoops! sry, I meant caring donations)

Oh! we seem to be reaching "critical mass" so anything can happen, but one thing is for sure: Won't be a freeride any more for Redmond

Viva
August 13th, 2009, 08:05 AM
It will gain a larger market share, but I can't see any single OS monopolizing the desktop market in the future like Microsoft Windows did.

Paqman
August 13th, 2009, 08:34 AM
We're starting to make inroads into the mobile and netbook market, but we're still routinely getting out butts kicked on the desktop (eg: Dell preinstalls). We need to majorly lift our game if we're even going to get to 5%. Progress is being made, but the competition is moving forward too, and I don't really see us making a lot of headway any time soon.

Johnsie
August 13th, 2009, 10:06 AM
Ubuntu is just a fork of Debian maintained by a reasonably small number of people at cannonical. It's never going to be huge.

Ubuntu usage probably peaked in 2007 due to Vista being crap. However Ubuntu doesn't have the eye candy of Windows 7 or OSX so it's going to be hard to convince people to change in the future. Cannonical do not have the ability to fix the ugly GUI situation in Gnome, and no, it can't be fixed by just changing your gnome theme. Vista sucked, but now Apple and Microsoft have really thrown the gauntlet. They have made their operating systems pretty. Ubuntu on the other hand still looks the same as it did 4 years ago. No gloss, no shininess... to me it looks a little cheap, but then again it was free.

CyberLegionX
August 13th, 2009, 10:13 AM
We're starting to make inroads into the mobile and netbook market, but we're still routinely getting out butts kicked on the desktop (eg: Dell preinstalls). We need to majorly lift our game if we're even going to get to 5%. Progress is being made, but the competition is moving forward too, and I don't really see us making a lot of headway any time soon.
I have to agree with you on this. For the everyday user most open source systems can be a major scare for the majority. In the past few years the GUI end has been up and rising, even to the point that Microsoft, for the first time in many years has noticed the encroaching speed at which open source systems have been catching up. Lets not fool ourselves too much though... the truth of the matter is that the majority of the general public does not know, or rather does not want to learn how to manage a system to the extent it is necessary to use open source to its full extent. It is not a question of what is better but what is easier... I deal with people that barely know how to use a computer... still looking for the button on the keyboard whenever a message pops up saying "Press any key to continue" (If you did not get the joke then please think about it a bit :P). It is mostly related to comfort. As stated by Paqman, preinstalls are a major influence in the flow. Most PC users will not look at the pros and will attack at the cons in the system. Taking it into perspective we are fighting a guerrilla war of sorts. Slowly getting more and more users to come over, this is going to be a very slow and progressive transition but I can't complain about it too much. Patience is something I am sure we all have, we just need to have a lot more than everyone else

TheNosh
August 13th, 2009, 10:33 AM
Ubuntu is just a fork of Debian maintained by a reasonably small number of people at cannonical. It's never going to be huge.

Ubuntu usage probably peaked in 2007 due to Vista being crap. However Ubuntu doesn't have the eye candy of Windows 7 or OSX so it's going to be hard to convince people to change in the future. Cannonical do not have the ability to fix the ugly GUI situation in Gnome, and no, it can't be fixed by just changing your gnome theme. Vista sucked, but now Apple and Microsoft have really thrown the gauntlet. They have made their operating systems pretty. Ubuntu on the other hand still looks the same as it did 4 years ago. No gloss, no shininess... to me it looks a little cheap, but then again it was free.

um... compiz? emerald?

or hell, ditch gnome if you must, e17 is sexy as hell.

i don't think the eye candy matters that much, but it's deffinitely there

greenfrog
August 13th, 2009, 11:27 AM
As long as hardware and software companies do not embrace Open Systems it will never happen.

As long as they think that they will lose their competitive edge they will never totally support Open Systems of any kind.

CyberLegionX
August 13th, 2009, 12:50 PM
As long as hardware and software companies do not embrace Open Systems it will never happen.

As long as they think that they will lose their competitive edge they will never totally support Open Systems of any kind.
A harsh truth about the world...
Regarding what was said on previous posts about looks, we must all realize one thing about people. People look at what they can see on something and base their initial choice on what they perceive. As a silly example, at first glance, between the two, what is cooler? A Toyota 1.6 or a Ferrari F50? Most people would say the Ferrari, now what if I told you that the Toyota had the Ferrari's engine in it? And the Ferrari had the Toyota's?
It is really a dumb example but the whole point is people worry first about looks and secondly what is under the hood. So it works with open source. The general public judges it by its appearance very seldomly going deeper as to see just how good it actually is

Barrucadu
August 13th, 2009, 01:04 PM
This post will sound horribly elitist but I'll post it anyway :P

I don't want Linux to become the top OS. Sure, it would have the benefit of more software and hardware support, but that would be it. There would be the huge downside of everything being far more, for want of a better word, stupid. Like what happened with C-A-Backspace being disabled, but over the whole OS.

Oh, and the Year of the Linux Desktop is scheduled to start on Thursday. Which Thursday, I cannot say.

TheNosh
August 13th, 2009, 01:24 PM
This post will sound horribly elitist but I'll post it anyway :P

I don't want Linux to become the top OS. Sure, it would have the benefit of more software and hardware support, but that would be it. There would be the huge downside of everything being far more, for want of a better word, stupid. Like what happened with C-A-Backspace being disabled, but over the whole OS.

Oh, and the Year of the Linux Desktop is scheduled to start on Thursday. Which Thursday, I cannot say.

+1

the issue ctrl + alt + backspace being disabled was easily fixed, but it's a sign that Ubuntu (or was that in other distros too? i hadn't really checked) is heading in a direction i'd rather it wouldn't.

Barrucadu
August 13th, 2009, 01:44 PM
(or was that in other distros too? i hadn't really checked)

It's a Xorg thing now, so it's disabled by default in all distros (unless they reenable it for the user)

TheNosh
August 13th, 2009, 01:57 PM
It's a Xorg thing now, so it's disabled by default in all distros (unless they reenable it for the user)

well thats awefull. as long as there's and option to reenable it i suppose it doesn't much matter though.

hoppipolla
August 13th, 2009, 03:42 PM
A harsh truth about the world...
Regarding what was said on previous posts about looks, we must all realize one thing about people. People look at what they can see on something and base their initial choice on what they perceive. As a silly example, at first glance, between the two, what is cooler? A Toyota 1.6 or a Ferrari F50? Most people would say the Ferrari, now what if I told you that the Toyota had the Ferrari's engine in it? And the Ferrari had the Toyota's?
It is really a dumb example but the whole point is people worry first about looks and secondly what is under the hood. So it works with open source. The general public judges it by its appearance very seldomly going deeper as to see just how good it actually is

Thank you, you're so right, and this is the kind of thing I have been talking about. And there's nothing wrong with it, it's human nature and in the case of something like this it's a sign of things moving on and progressing, compare Windows 7 to XP or Snow Leopard to OS9 :)



This post will sound horribly elitist but I'll post it anyway

I don't want Linux to become the top OS. Sure, it would have the benefit of more software and hardware support, but that would be it. There would be the huge downside of everything being far more, for want of a better word, stupid. Like what happened with C-A-Backspace being disabled, but over the whole OS.

Oh, and the Year of the Linux Desktop is scheduled to start on Thursday. Which Thursday, I cannot say.

That is a shame that that feature has been dropped by default... maybe it should be put back in. But most users probably DON'T want it... who knows maybe it will find it's way back in if enough people demand it :)

And also, this isn't necessarily LINUX being the top system, it represents just Open Source providing the world with free software ^_^

hoppipolla
August 13th, 2009, 03:44 PM
oo and great signature TheNosh I like it! Very true! :)

MasterNetra
August 13th, 2009, 05:04 PM
I believe it can be at or at least near the top, assuming canonical doesn't seriously fumble along the way. I think it will probably take more then 4 years, but I suppose it could get there before hand. Not placing any bets in favor though.

hoppipolla
August 13th, 2009, 06:17 PM
I believe it can be at or at least near the top, assuming canonical doesn't seriously fumble along the way. I think it will probably take more then 4 years, but I suppose it could get there before hand. Not placing any bets in favor though.

hehe cool, and I love your avatar by the way! hehe :)

TheNosh
August 14th, 2009, 03:53 AM
oo and great signature TheNosh I like it! Very true! :)

thanks, it's a quote from Jerry Garcia of The Grateful Dead.

hoppipolla
August 14th, 2009, 11:51 AM
thanks, it's a quote from Jerry Garcia of The Grateful Dead.

I love The Grateful Dead! Very cool :)

scratman
August 14th, 2009, 04:49 PM
It's not gong to happen. Not any time soon, anyway. There's a huge list of reasons but I'll outline a few of the major ones.

Hardware support/drivers. Yeah, OK most of the hardware you can buy has drivers and support (iPhone and the like excluded), but even those that have drivers are not always perfect. And let's be honest, even with the improvements made over the last couple of distros, installing NVidia drivers is not as easy as it ought to be in all cases.

Manufacturer support. OK, Dell and a few others supply Ubuntu preinstalled, but the majority of customers get Windows or Mac built in, and they are going to keep it. Installing Ubuntu is pretty straightforward, but let's be honest, the majority of users are going to adopt the 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it' approach. While the pre-installed operating system meets their needs, why would they want to come to Linux? The car analogy has been used before, but to employ it in a different manner, you have the option of buying a car ready to go, or getting one for free that means you have to get under the hood and get all oily to make it run. Why get oily when you can just drive the slightly more expensive car off?

Standardisation. Whether it's Ubuntu, or some other flavour of Linux that begins to achieve a notable market share, it must become more standardised. Yes, the customisability of Linux is one of it's greatest assets, but it is also one of the greatest drawbacks. Developers want to write one piece of code, compile it, test it and then distribute it. If we are ever going to convince major app and game developers to back Linux, we need to meet them partway. If they can make a fortune selling to the Windows/Mac markets, why go to the trouble of developing for Linux, which a minority market populated by people who want something for nothing? I know that there is a desire to standardise packages to the RPM package, which is great, but until that becomes the norm, there's no real incentive for big developers to put the effort in, imho.

Going back to the hardware drivers, life would be easier all round if all flavours of Linux could agree on standard Audio drivers. Ever had audio trouble? If not, you're lucky. Audio drivers absorb an enormous amount of dev time. Get a good set of drivers, get it working properly, call it good and stick to it.

Troubleshooters. What can I say? If the built in troubleshooters were up to the job, this forum would be much quieter. It needs to be addressed, because not all PCs are constantly connected to broadband internet. If you want large-scale adoption, this needs to be addressed.

Simplicity. Yeah, I know that customisation is awesome. That said, most people want a PC that just works. It does what they want, and that's fine by them. I think that a few setup wizards would make life easier for people coming from other systems to Ubuntu. If you had a setup guide that just said what do you want to do with this computer, and then asked you for details like your name, email address, and then installed and setup the software for you, that would be great. Let's be honest, setting up email software, IM software, torrent software, video drivers etc is not really a huge issue for most of the current users, but be honest, how many people do you know that would benefit from that kind of automation? And would it really be that hard to do?

MasterNetra
August 14th, 2009, 04:52 PM
hehe cool, and I love your avatar by the way! hehe :)

So do I. :p