The value of all recorded music in the world.

[monsterstack]

Have a look at this. It is a table I found on a blog (http://www.digitalproductions.co.uk/index.php?id=190) [digitalproductions.co.uk] regarding the total number of music CDs produced since the beginning compared with the cost of putting them all on a hard drive as mp3s (I hope it formats properly):


Year Price of 1TiB HDD CDs MP3 TiB Storage cost
1980 $1,336,434,513.25 35,000 3 $4,460,831,447.94
1981 $735,038,982.29 70,000 7 $4,906,914,592.74
1982 $404,271,440.26 105,000 10 $4,048,204,539.01
1983 $222,349,292.14 140,000 13 $2,968,683,328.61
1984 $122,292,110.68 175,000 17 $2,040,969,788.42
1985 $67,260,660.87 210,000 20 $1,347,040,060.36
1986 $36,993,363.48 245,000 23 $864,350,705.39
1987 $20,346,349.91 280,000 27 $543,306,157.68
1988 $11,190,492.45 315,000 30 $336,170,685.06
1989 $6,154,770.85 350,000 33 $205,437,640.87
1990 $3,385,123.97 385,000 37 $124,289,772.73
1991 $1,861,818.18 420,000 40 $74,573,863.64
1992 $1,024,000.00 455,000 43 $44,433,593.75
1993 $563,200.00 490,000 47 $26,318,359.38
1994 $309,760.00 525,000 50 $15,509,033.20
1995 $170,368.00 560,000 53 $9,098,632.81
1996 $93,702.40 595,000 57 $5,317,013.55
1997 $51,536.32 630,000 60 $3,096,378.63
1998 $28,344.98 665,000 63 $1,797,619.69
1999 $15,589.73 700,000 67 $1,040,727.05
2000 $8,574.35 735,000 70 $601,019.69
2001 $4,715.90 770,000 73 $346,302.24
2002 $2,593.74 805,000 77 $199,123.51
2003 $1,426.55 840,000 80 $114,279.38
2004 $784.61 875,000 83 $65,472.90
2005 $431.53 910,000 87 $37,450.41
2006 $237.34 945,000 90 $21,389.85
2007 $130.54 980,000 93 $12,200.23
2008 $71.79 1,015,000 97 $6,949.38
2009 $39.49 1,050,000 100 $3,953.91
2010 $21.72 1,085,000 103 $2,247.35
2011 $11.95 1,120,000 107 $1,275.91
2012 $6.57 1,155,000 110 $723.68
2013 $3.61 1,190,000 113 $410.09
2014 $1.99 1,225,000 117 $232.18
2015 $1.09 1,260,000 120 $131.35
2016 $0.60 1,295,000 124 $74.25
2017 $0.33 1,330,000 127 $41.94
2018 $0.18 1,365,000 130 $23.67
2019 $0.10 1,400,000 134 $13.35
2020 $0.06 1,435,000 137 $7.53

As you can see, the cost of digital storage is falling much faster than record production can compensate for. By 2015, the cost of buying all that music as CDs would be in excess of 12 million dollars (or 7 million pounds). But by then, the physical cost of storing every single song ever produced on disk will cost little over 130 dollars (or 80 pounds). By 2020, it'll cost less than ten bucks (or 6 pounds).

What do you think this will do to the world? Personally, I think it's only a matter of time before someone, somewhere manages to cram all recorded music on to disk. I'm assuming the pirates will be happy. But what about you? If somebody somehow made it legal (or even if they didn't), would you consider buying such a device? How much would such a device be worth to you?

[The Toxic Mite]

Have a look at this. It is a table I found on a blog (http://www.digitalproductions.co.uk/index.php?id=190) [digitalproductions.co.uk] regarding the total number of music CDs produced since the beginning compared with the cost of putting them all on a hard drive as mp3s (I hope it formats properly):


Year Price of 1TiB HDD CDs MP3 TiB Storage cost
1980 $1,336,434,513.25 35,000 3 $4,460,831,447.94
1981 $735,038,982.29 70,000 7 $4,906,914,592.74
1982 $404,271,440.26 105,000 10 $4,048,204,539.01
1983 $222,349,292.14 140,000 13 $2,968,683,328.61
1984 $122,292,110.68 175,000 17 $2,040,969,788.42
1985 $67,260,660.87 210,000 20 $1,347,040,060.36
1986 $36,993,363.48 245,000 23 $864,350,705.39
1987 $20,346,349.91 280,000 27 $543,306,157.68
1988 $11,190,492.45 315,000 30 $336,170,685.06
1989 $6,154,770.85 350,000 33 $205,437,640.87
1990 $3,385,123.97 385,000 37 $124,289,772.73
1991 $1,861,818.18 420,000 40 $74,573,863.64
1992 $1,024,000.00 455,000 43 $44,433,593.75
1993 $563,200.00 490,000 47 $26,318,359.38
1994 $309,760.00 525,000 50 $15,509,033.20
1995 $170,368.00 560,000 53 $9,098,632.81
1996 $93,702.40 595,000 57 $5,317,013.55
1997 $51,536.32 630,000 60 $3,096,378.63
1998 $28,344.98 665,000 63 $1,797,619.69
1999 $15,589.73 700,000 67 $1,040,727.05
2000 $8,574.35 735,000 70 $601,019.69
2001 $4,715.90 770,000 73 $346,302.24
2002 $2,593.74 805,000 77 $199,123.51
2003 $1,426.55 840,000 80 $114,279.38
2004 $784.61 875,000 83 $65,472.90
2005 $431.53 910,000 87 $37,450.41
2006 $237.34 945,000 90 $21,389.85
2007 $130.54 980,000 93 $12,200.23
2008 $71.79 1,015,000 97 $6,949.38
2009 $39.49 1,050,000 100 $3,953.91
2010 $21.72 1,085,000 103 $2,247.35
2011 $11.95 1,120,000 107 $1,275.91
2012 $6.57 1,155,000 110 $723.68
2013 $3.61 1,190,000 113 $410.09
2014 $1.99 1,225,000 117 $232.18
2015 $1.09 1,260,000 120 $131.35
2016 $0.60 1,295,000 124 $74.25
2017 $0.33 1,330,000 127 $41.94
2018 $0.18 1,365,000 130 $23.67
2019 $0.10 1,400,000 134 $13.35
2020 $0.06 1,435,000 137 $7.53As you can see, the cost of digital storage is falling much faster than record production can compensate for. By 2015, the cost of buying all that music as CDs would be in excess of 12 million dollars (or 7 million pounds). But by then, the physical cost of storing every single song ever produced on disk will cost little over 130 dollars (or 80 pounds). By 2020, it'll cost less than ten bucks (or 6 pounds).

What do you think this will do to the world? Personally, I think it's only a matter of time before someone, somewhere manages to cram all recorded music on to disk. I'm assuming the pirates will be happy. But what about you? If somebody somehow made it legal (or even if they didn't), would you consider buying such a device? How much would such a device be worth to you?

Jeez. This is pretty interesting :confused:

It could be that albums are going to be sold on *.mp3 players instead of CDs in the future.

[monsterstack]

Jeez. This is pretty interesting :confused:

It could be that albums are going to be sold on *.mp3 players instead of CDs in the future.

Yeah that's been a possibility for a while now. Even so, many people I know already have music collections in excess of one hundred gigabytes. If somebody somewhere does manage to get every song ever made on to disk (remember it only requires one), the effects will be pretty dramatic. I think it'd spread like wildfire. I mean, wouldn't you like an infinite jukebox?

o btw does that table render properly for you or have I done it all wrong?

[etnlIcarus]

What do you think this will do to the world?Leave us with one less superfluous industry and lots of nasty laws, lingering about.

[monsterstack]

Leave us with one less superfluous industry and lots of nasty laws, lingering about.

I suppose so. I think one of the main reasons everybody gets so shocked at how obscene the RIAA lawsuits are is because filesharing is so ubiquitous. I don't know a single computer-literate person who hasn't engaged in some form of copyright-infringement. To see such large sums of money bandied is rather disarming. An infinite music archive has the potential to be as ubiquitous as USB flash-sticks. Even if somebody manages to convince the world's governments that filesharing is a criminal activity (as opposed to a civil infraction), I don't think even that would be enough to stop it. As supporting evidence, I offer the satellite television that was introduced in Iran in the eighties: the government desperately wanted to eradicate it, but it was just too popular to quash.

[etnlIcarus]

I think one of the main reasons everybody gets so shocked at how obscene the RIAA lawsuits are is because filesharing is so ubiquitous. I don't know a single computer-literate person who hasn't engaged in some form of copyright-infringement.Well I'm not sure about this reasoning. To borrow it for a minute: most everyone I know has broken the law in some way, shape or form but most of the people I know still believe in the rule of law (some to an almost single-minded degree).

The main issue with RIAA muscling is 'the punishment doesn't fit the crime' and some people, at least, are starting to recognise the conceptual failings of information as a commodity, due to the post-scarcity nature of the digital age.

[happysmileman]

Well I'm not sure about this reasoning. To borrow it for a minute: most everyone I know has broken the law in some way, shape or form but most of the people I know still believe in the rule of law (some to an almost single-minded degree).

But most people will disagree with some laws. Pretty much everyone agrees with the rule of law when it comes to murder, rape, assault, theft etc., but for other stuff such as copyright infringement, age of consent, legal drinking age, drug prohibition many people will have their own ideas of what should and shouldn't be allowed.

[monsterstack]

Well I'm not sure about this reasoning. To borrow it for a minute: most everyone I know has broken the law in some way, shape or form but most of the people I know still believe in the rule of law (some to an almost single-minded degree).
I do see your point, but I'm just basing it on what happens when I tell people I know the possible effects of their downloading activities. Everybody knows the illegal nature of what they're doing, but still a great many of my friends haven't even considered that in any greater detail. They are usually surprised when I tell them of the lawsuits they could face.


The main issue with RIAA muscling is 'the punishment doesn't fit the crime' and some people, at least, are starting to recognise the conceptual failings of information as a commodity, due to the post-scarcity nature of the digital age.
I completely agree. Too bad it's only "some people", though. Many people I see on the internet don't much consider the infinite nature of digital information. And even if they do, it is brushed aside with an appeal to emotion or a straw-man attack. (i.e. "How would YOU feel if somebody stole your hard-earned work?") I'm not trying to pass myself off as somehow more enlightened than these folk, but I do think they are ignoring the inevitable. All moral arguments are irrelevant: this is already happening.

Edit: in response to,


But most people will disagree with some laws. Pretty much everyone agrees with the rule of law when it comes to murder, rape, assault, theft etc., but for other stuff such as copyright infringement, age of consent, legal drinking age, drug prohibition many people will have their own ideas of what should and shouldn't be allowed.

People can and will find a way to justify pretty much any behaviour. No matter how much anybody tells you they believe in some sort of higher ethics or absolute morality, when pushed I think most people will admit to living by their own standards of morality. I think laws should be made on the basis of people's behaviour. In a democracy of millions, that can be difficult to get right. I'd hate to be a lawmaker.

[etnlIcarus]

But most people will disagree with some laws. Pretty much everyone agrees with the rule of law when it comes to murder, rape, assault, theft etc., but for other stuff such as copyright infringement, age of consent, legal drinking age, drug prohibition many people will have their own ideas of what should and shouldn't be allowed.

You should consider yourself lucky that you know so few hypocrites. At least in my experience, the 'it's okay when I do it' rule applies.

[toupeiro]

Cool trend. It actually supports another concept I've been thinking about for the last year or so for media distribution formats; and also why I've not invested in Blu-Ray. With the advent of 1080p on-demand video realized today by companies like Dish Network, by 2015 it will become more saturated and much easier and cheaper for the average user to see high definition movies and television. On-demand will surpass DVD and Blu-Ray as the preferred distribution method of SD and HD video, at least thats my theory. Based on the costs per TB illustrated in this trend, I'd say I'm not too far fetched.

[monsterstack]

Cool trend. It actually supports another concept I've been thinking about for the last year or so for media distribution formats; and also why I've not invested in Blu-Ray. With the advent of 1080p on-demand video realized today by companies like Dish Network, by 2015 it will become more saturated and much easier and cheaper for the average user to see high definition movies and television. On-demand will surpass DVD and Blu-Ray as the preferred distribution method of SD and HD video, at least thats my theory. Based on the costs per TB illustrated in this trend, I'd say I'm not too far fetched.

I can see that happening. What's more, if the data in the table holds up to be accurate, then by 2015 it'll take just over a day to download 120tb of music (provided you have 2.4gb/s internet, that is; it'd take three years at 10mb/s). Obviously HD stuff will take longer. But still. Makes you think, doesn't it.

[LowSky]

on-demand has already surpassed dvd and cd sales. itunes and amazon are the main contributors to this trend. then you have websites like Youtube and Hulu and are streaming entertainment. Even television is becoming a harsh place for broadcasting networks as people rather view stuff on their time and not always the originally airing. This has caused advertisors to not invest in TV programming and subsequently has required networks to create "lesser" quality shows.

the effects of such changes will be seen in the next 5-10 years as we see entertainment move in new directions and for the newer forms of viewership start to be counted.

oddly enough in the last two years the movie industry has started to do much better than it has in many years. a odd trend compared to the other forms of entertianment.

[koshatnik]

I suppose so. I think one of the main reasons everybody gets so shocked at how obscene the RIAA lawsuits are is because filesharing is so ubiquitous. I don't know a single computer-literate person who hasn't engaged in some form of copyright-infringement.

People used to do it with tapes, then with CD's, now with internet connections. It's always happened.


Even if somebody manages to convince the world's governments that filesharing is a criminal activity (as opposed to a civil infraction), I don't think even that would be enough to stop it.

The recording industry is in this mess through its on stupidity and innaction. Sueing people for filesharing is like shutting the barn door after all the horses have bolted, whilst music executives held the door open and waved them off. Only after they stared into an empty barn for ten years did they think "hey, our horses have gone... Let's find out whose got them and sue them."

Answer: get a better barn, with a better gate keeper.

[monsterstack]

People used to do it with tapes, then with CD's, now with internet connections. It's always happened.



The recording industry is in this mess through its on stupidity and innaction. Sueing people for filesharing is like shutting the barn door after all the horses have bolted, whilst music executives held the door open and waved them off. Only after they stared into an empty barn for ten years did they think "hey, our horses have gone... Let's find out whose got them and sue them."

Answer: get a better barn, with a better gate keeper.

I agree with most of what you said. Still, it seems a bit silly to invest in a new barn and door after your horses have bolted.

[koshatnik]

I agree with most of what you said. Still, it seems a bit silly to invest in a new barn and door after your horses have bolted.

You buy more horses, and you charge people alot less to ride them, and you make them more accessible.. :p

Think I'll stop with the horse metaphors now.

[bruno9779]

I wouldn't want such a device because of Pareto's principle....

I still prefer downloading only what i like

[bruno9779]

The real music revolution will happen when no one can make a living out of recorded songs for how cheap they have got:

Only musicians that actually keep playing (concerts, gigs and -why not- basking) will make a living off it.

Simply wonderful

[michaeldt]

Now compare it with the rate at which UK and/or US broadband is increasing in speed and how long it would take to fill that amount of data if it was all downloaded at the average speed for the UK/US :)

[toupeiro]

on-demand has already surpassed dvd and cd sales. itunes and amazon are the main contributors to this trend. then you have websites like Youtube and Hulu and are streaming entertainment. Even television is becoming a harsh place for broadcasting networks as people rather view stuff on their time and not always the originally airing. This has caused advertisors to not invest in TV programming and subsequently has required networks to create "lesser" quality shows.

the effects of such changes will be seen in the next 5-10 years as we see entertainment move in new directions and for the newer forms of viewership start to be counted.

oddly enough in the last two years the movie industry has started to do much better than it has in many years. a odd trend compared to the other forms of entertianment.

It's grown quite a bit, no doubt, in the music realm. I don't know if I am ready to say its surpassed CD/DVD sales yet, especially if DVD=Movies. The average person is still buying optical WORM formats moreso than digital downloads or streaming content, but as more set-top devices flood the markets that support on-demand, streaming, or digital download content, and they become easier and easier to use, it will definitely displace optical formats, sooner than later in my opinion.

Funny you should mention the movie industry. To me, its no surprise why they are doing so good when the cost of admission is nearly $10.00 per person. The price of everything at the concession stands has gone up. It's not uncommon at all for a family of three to spend over $50 every time they go out to see a movie. What I am waiting for is for motion picture companies like Columbia, Time Warner, etc etc, to start offering on-demand services/subscriptions to home theater owners for movies. Its not far off IMO. Even if it was $30 a month per household for unlimited movies, then a family of three has paid the price of admission for one movie, and popped their own popcorn! ;)

On the other hand, while I predict on-demand can and will directly compete with movie theaters someday very soon, I also believe there's never been a better time than now to resurrect Drive-in Theaters. Projectors are better quality now than they've ever been. Audio systems are smaller and more clear than ever before, and now with the technology available to cheaply broadcast in close proximity on an FM frequency, people can use their own car audio systems.