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View Full Version : Exec Predicts 50 Percent Share For Linux Netbooks.



bhishan
May 24th, 2009, 01:15 AM
http://www.crn.com/software/217600719;jsessionid=RLUC0PVYESHLWQSNDLRSKHSCJUNN2 JVN

drawkcab
May 24th, 2009, 06:38 AM
I guess we'll see. Unfortuantely consumers and manufacturers will have to regain confidence in linux all over again.

gnomeuser
May 24th, 2009, 06:52 AM
I think with moblin we finally have a user interface that will truly reflect what netbooks can do. I think now we are fundamentally better, I hope vendors will not continue to ship each their own inferior homebrew interface and instead adopt moblins work.

It's a strong offering and it suits the target really well. OpenSUSE already does offer a moblin edition with some integration of so of their technology, e.g. they use Network Manager instead of Connman, they will also soon use Banshee instead of the zooming media center in Moblin however it will be using a new clutter based interface named cubano for which not a whole lot of details are out yet.

jrusso2
May 24th, 2009, 07:21 AM
Linux is unlikely to see more then ten percent of Netbooks ever again after the last debacle.

stwschool
May 24th, 2009, 09:45 AM
To be honest, this guy's full of the brown stuff. That said, Linux is moving forward at quite a pace. I've got a whole bunch of people happily using it who would have run away screaming at some of the older versions. Hardware support these days is damn good (generally my ubuntu CD works better out-of-the-box than Windows) and with Wine we're able to run a very good percentage of Windows software (including some very obscure stuff, indie games, specialist apps etc), as well as Linux's latest and greatest, giving us the best of both worlds.

Linux (certainly Ubuntu anyway) is very very usable in its present state and the involvement of the likes of Intel, along with work from ATI and Nvidia on graphics drivers, shows that people are taking it seriously, and beginning to prepare for a shift in the market.

If it doesn't happen? Not a big problem, I still get my linux fix, virus-free, fast, efficient, with brilliant server tools and a stunning desktop experience (now I've customised it to death). If it does, it could change people's perception of computers and what they can do. I know it's certainly opened my eyes to a few possibilities I'd never previously considered!

Dimitriid
May 24th, 2009, 10:11 AM
If netbooks have shown you anything is that Linux will always be a 1 step forward 2 steps back when it comes to popularity. You get advances, hardware manufacturers throw you a bone with driver support and retail systems appear, then they lose interest and you get a ton of crap with horrible driver support, plus alienating new users.

bigbrovar
May 24th, 2009, 10:46 AM
i think with moblin we finally have a user interface that will truly reflect what netbooks can do. I think now we are fundamentally better, i hope vendors will not continue to ship each their own inferior homebrew interface and instead adopt moblins work.

It's a strong offering and it suits the target really well. Opensuse already does offer a moblin edition with some integration of so of their technology, e.g. They use network manager instead of connman, they will also soon use banshee instead of the zooming media center in moblin however it will be using a new clutter based interface named cubano for which not a whole lot of details are out yet.

+1

BuffaloX
May 24th, 2009, 10:47 AM
While the claims are completely unfounded, one thing is for sure, we will see a lot of changes in the netbook market the coming year.

Windows 7 will replace XP on the netbooks, and Microsoft will try to upscale the entire netbook market, how will the market respond to that?

Arm based netbooks are coming, will they attract any significant amount of customers?

Android may be introduced as a netbook OS, but do we really want a netbook, that is unable to run any existing X based software, and will Android be beneficial to the rest of the Linux infrastructure in any significant way?

To me it seems Linux's best chance is that Microsoft somehow fumbles the ball with Windows 7.

3rdalbum
May 24th, 2009, 11:04 AM
I don't think we'll see 50% of the netbook market, but I'm sure a lot of people will buy Moblin-based machines just for the sexiness. Assuming the salespeople aren't efficient enough to "upsell" to Windows equivilants.

Johnsie
May 24th, 2009, 11:57 AM
Linux on netbooks is a complete joke. Just last year most netbooks were running Linux, now most of them run Windows. Linux couldn't do what the buyers wanted to do. Normal users (not computing hobbyists like us) were buying these things and realising they didn't work the way they wanted a computer to work. The little Linux experiment failed miserably. Why? Lack of leadership from the Linux camp. Linux is spilt into so many distros and the manufacturers chose the worst ones.

Linux will never be trusted on mainstream computers again and it's directly because there are too many distros. How can Linux possibly compete if there a million different versions and no leadership or quality assurance?

The whole thing showed us that Linux is still only for computer hobbyists.

imbjr
May 24th, 2009, 12:14 PM
I know moblin is not meant to be run under VirtualBox, but that's how I usually assess a distro before deciding it might be time to move on from Ubuntu.

Well, the first thing that happened was that it needed PAE enabled - but the current Jaunty repository of VirtualBox OSE now handles that, so no biggy. But once it had booted-up, the mouse was dead. Not a good start!

3rdalbum
May 24th, 2009, 12:59 PM
The whole thing showed us that Linux is still only for computer hobbyists.

It did the opposite. It showed us that netbooks that shipped with good distributions, like the Dell Mini (Ubuntu), were reasonably successful. The ones that shipped with crap from manufacturers that didn't get it, failed.

It showed us that Windows is a crutch, and when people buy a netbook with a quality operating system, they no longer need the crutch.

stwschool
May 24th, 2009, 01:57 PM
The netbook thing failed because ultimately a lot of people are very lazy, too lazy to learn anything new. The same people would also not be able to use a mac, for that very reason.

Having said that, it's an opportunity for the linux community to take stock and learn lessons on usability etc. We've also acquired some big-budget support to help us so it's not all doom and gloom.

pwnst*r
May 24th, 2009, 02:19 PM
The netbook thing failed because ultimately a lot of people are very lazy, too lazy to learn anything new. The same people would also not be able to use a mac, for that very reason.

Having said that, it's an opportunity for the linux community to take stock and learn lessons on usability etc. We've also acquired some big-budget support to help us so it's not all doom and gloom.

i think laziness takes second seat to change. most people do not like change.

growled
May 24th, 2009, 02:41 PM
I hope I am wrong but I see Windows 7 dominating the netbook scene for the foreseeable future.

kevdog
May 24th, 2009, 02:55 PM
Im looking a netbooks, and beyond portability my major focus in boot time. I like to see almost an "instant" on feature, however I understand this is probably not possible. Am I to assume moblin would be the best distribution for this purpose?

gnomeuser
May 24th, 2009, 03:39 PM
Im looking a netbooks, and beyond portability my major focus in boot time. I like to see almost an "instant" on feature, however I understand this is probably not possible. Am I to assume moblin would be the best distribution for this purpose?

Moblin does have the fastest boot for an off the shelf distro and currently aim for a 2 sec boot on a netbook with an SSD from grub to a workable gui.

That is not unrealistic, it's merely ambitious.

stwschool
May 24th, 2009, 03:43 PM
I hope I am wrong but I see Windows 7 dominating the netbook scene for the foreseeable future.
A lot depends on just how much trouble malware causes on Windows boxes, and how secure Win7 turns out to be. I honestly think it's getting close to that critical level where people are slowly waking up to the fact that it's really not acceptable to have the present malware problem. Governments are moving, education is moving, the home user will catch up eventually.
Where governments have not yet moved to Linux, embarassing incidents are occurring very frequently due to malware, a quick glance through The Register will tell you that, and larger organisations are going to find that the effort required (and usability sacrifices needed to sufficiently lock-down their users computers) will lead to them switching to Linux at an increasing rate, especially as we now have distros that can be used by the average user.
Remember, yes it's mostly us techie geeks that are using it, but who do the non-techies go to when they want computer advice? Us. We all get it. Some of us probably don't push Linux, being scared they won't cope. Let's suggest it and see how they do, they may surprise us.

Johnsie
May 24th, 2009, 03:53 PM
It's not the crappy distros. I've installed Ubuntu on those machines for people and had the same kind of response. Things do not work the way they expect, especially when they plug an obscure piece of hardware in. Yes, I'm sure someone will blame hardware manufacturers for not releasing drivers... but the average user just wants their stuff to work and if Ubuntu cannot do that then they will use something else. Also, the default instant messenger in Ubuntu does't even have audio/video lol.

Linux is for hobbyists who want to take the time to learn something new, not for the average user.

drawkcab
May 24th, 2009, 07:05 PM
I dunno. I think xandros was infinitely more frustrating than eeebuntu.

monsterstack
May 24th, 2009, 07:57 PM
Linux is for hobbyists who want to take the time to learn something new, not for the average user.

It isn't? How am I going to break that news to my girlfriend, my mother, my father, my sister, my brothers, many of my friends, many of the people I work with? They think they're average computer users. How do I tell them all it was just a dream? HOW? Do you see what you've done? YOU HAVE RUINED OUR LIVES! DAMN YOU! DAMN YOU TO HELL!

bakedbeans4life
May 24th, 2009, 11:12 PM
Not for one second do I think this will come to pass. Microsoft will not allow, they cannot afford to allow it.

They will pay billions of dollars to suppress Linux on these devices (as they have done in the past and continue to do so). But for once the OEMs may have Microsoft over a barrel. Linux has become a bargaining chip with which they can broker a better deal with Microsoft on software pricing.

What would be a more intersting question would be "How much are Microsoft willing to spend to try and convince the world Linux does not exist?"

I think you are going to see more OEMs wanting a portion of Microsoft's pie, to Microsoft this may be death by a thousand cuts. Each small piece and all...