ms says linux has greater market share than apple

[Shpongle]

see this!

http://www.osnews.com/story/21035/Ballmer_Linux_Bigger_Competitor_than_Apple

[c0nfusedami]

that has to be due to the fact that a lot of small gadgets run off of a version of linux

[sim-value]

That was so clear ...

Apple only sells in The USA and Western Europe to people with to much Money (sry its like that)

Linux all the Way for developing Countrys and so on ...

[metallicamike]

LOL!!!!! oh well. I guess its natural to find the two most revolutionary things to happen to computers as competitors. But i feel good cuz in some way im stickin' it to the man :popcorn:

[SunnyRabbiera]

One can see the logic because linux can be installed on practically any computer legally.
But I dont think the study is that accurate, much less any study done by MS.
But Linux already has the largest market share, just not in the desktop as far as they are concerned.
Now in terms of servers, devices, and odds and ends linux can be found almost everywhere.

[michaeldt]

I wonder if in their figures they included all the people who buy a PC with windows and then wipe the drive to run Linux? Or the people who dual boot just for one or two windows apps they can't live without?

Figures on market share are almost impossible to get accurately. Especially if you rely on sales figures, since there really aren't any for Linux, given that it's free and few major retailers sell Linux PCs.

[kerry_s]

i think apple would be even smaller if they counted there pirated copies, but i can understand them not wanting to look smaller than they are.

[capnthommo]

hi
i just wonder if anybody else noticed the conceptual pairing of Linux and piracy. the two terms were used together a number of times in the article and i felt that this led to an unconscious association.
it's as if the writer were trying to create that kind of association so that when somebody heard the term 'Linux' their subconscious said 'pirate'.
cheers
nigel

[albinootje]

Linux all the Way for developing Countrys and so on ...

Well, rumor goes that Ubuntu is not popular in Africa at all, except in South Africa, I have no idea whether another Linux distribution would be more popular in the whole of Africa.
The rest of Africa might just be using ("pirated"?) version of MS-Windows.

[BuffaloX]

Could Microsoft have a reason to exaggerate Linux numbers?
I don't see Linux having that much marketshare no-matter how you cut the market.

[growled]

I've never believed the market share data we see put out anyway. It's been said time and again that no one really has any idea of how many Linux users there are out there.

[kahunamahalo]

I don't believe ANYTHING coming out of Redmond, especially the diatribe spewed forth by Ballmer. I would not let my kids near that man.

[albinootje]

I've never believed the market share data we see put out anyway. It's been said time and again that no one really has any idea of how many Linux users there are out there.

Hmm, well, I read that a few Linux distributions do count how often, and which ip addresses actually connect to find updates (And that is quite a few million of them).
But if you figure out the total amount of that, then there's anothe r problem to deal with : How many computer users are there world wide (For calculating the percentage of Linux users from)?

Another thing I have been thinking about is, that Microsoft might be happy to count the amount of licenses they sell, whether it is actually used or not (after a reinstall over it with another non-MS OS), and with that deliberately providing a distorted overview.

But they might also not want to base their amount of users on the amount of computers checking for the latest updates, since that might include a whole bunch of "pirated" MS-Windows versions.

Apart from all this, counting by computers checking for updates also includes servers, which the mass media usually prefers not to talk about :)

[SunnyRabbiera]

Could Microsoft have a reason to exaggerate Linux numbers?
I don't see Linux having that much marketshare no-matter how you cut the market.

No I think linux use is much higher then you think it is, I think its much higher then even Microsoft can project.
I think that at this level linux might actually have a 10 to 20% market share, as most of these tests are based on sales/ internet settings/ etc.

[Regenweald]

I think this is just one-upmanship on the part of redmond. What better way to insult Apple than claim that an operating platform that Apple refuses to even acknowledge has a greater marketshare than the 'mac vs pc' people...
Of course it's true only because of server and enterprise deployments but that steve ballmer would say it makes it funny.

On an outside note: It's really pitiful how the majority of blogs or news articles on anything remotely Linux, that offer 'comments' almost always boil down to some immature little e-spat among anonymous posters.

[BuffaloX]

No I think linux use is much higher then you think it is, I think its much higher then even Microsoft can project.
I think that at this level linux might actually have a 10 to 20% market share, as most of these tests are based on sales/ internet settings/ etc.

Wow and how do you figure Linux usage would be as high as that.
When the average PC user don't even know what Linux is, even in most computer shops they have only heard of it or don't even know it at all.

[Patrick Snyder]

I wonder if in their figures they included all the people who buy a PC with windows and then wipe the drive to run Linux? Or the people who dual boot just for one or two windows apps they can't live without?

Figures on market share are almost impossible to get accurately. Especially if you rely on sales figures, since there really aren't any for Linux, given that it's free and few major retailers sell Linux PCs.

+1 this.


NEVER trust a study that doesn't explicitly tell you exactly how they got their data.
(Then always look for how they calculate their "margin of error" or what their sample size was, etc.)

I am sure my computer is in the 'Windows Licensed' bracket and not in the Linux, despite it being a Linux box.


On top of the inherent difficulty of measuring something like this, it can be calculated from a multitude of perspectives (website visits, sales, some computer modeller putting semi-random data into his made-up formula, etc.)

[albinootje]

Wow and how do you figure Linux usage would be as high as that.
When the average PC user don't even know what Linux is, even in most computer shops they have only heard of it or don't even know it at all.
Was this about desktop computer market share or the-total-of-computers-everywhere market share ?

I can tell you that Linux in certain countries in Europe is quite well known, even though the Microsoft Tax Department is still in charge on most of the newly shipped pre-installed computers in the computer-shops.
I have also repeatedly mentioned in computer shops that I need hardware (a NIC e.g.) that needed to run with Linux, and all of those computer-shop employees I asked knew pretty well what I was talking about.

[mxboy15u]

On a large car forum that I am a member of a recent "Post your desktop" thread showed about 20% were linux users. Now I know this is a younger demographic but that was just huge to see!

[ibuclaw]

Actually, it may surprise you to find out that everyone is a Linux User (http://www.linuxplanet.com/linuxplanet/reports/6671/1/). Most just don't realise it yet...

[SunnyRabbiera]

Wow and how do you figure Linux usage would be as high as that.
When the average PC user don't even know what Linux is, even in most computer shops they have only heard of it or don't even know it at all.

Well once again you are talking facts and figures, who really knows how high linux use in general is?
I mean already it is perhaps the most used OS on the market, as most servers are powered by linux so even if you use windows to browse the net it is linux that powers the net.
One cannot base stats on browsers used, pre installed systems or anything.

[Sealbhach]

They don't actually show numbers on that chart. So maybe the Linux slice was made that size so people at the back could see it...


.

[HermanAB]

It is all marketing junk. The results depend on what you count. If you would count ALL computer devices, then Linux is the most popular OS by far (mostly cell phones and routers) with about 2.5 billion units.

If you count only desktop office systems, then MS holds 90 percent. If you only count UNIX machines, Linux holds 99%...

So, it is a simple numbers game.

[pwnst*r]

But Linux already has the largest market share, just not in the desktop as far as they are concerned.

no, as far as everyone is concerned.

[starcannon]

I never trust statistics, not even when I like the results. They are open to subjective interpretation and manipulation. The sources for statistics are in themselves problematic and require further analysis, which is then open to subjective interpretation and manipulation. Interesting article though. Now off to read my horoscope :p

[hanzomon4]

That was so clear ...

Apple only sells in The USA and Western Europe to people with to much Money (sry its like that)

Linux all the Way for developing Countrys and so on ...

Oh please get over yourself... I go to a school that requires I buy apple and for creative professionals it really does kick the pants off of Linux and Windows. Hell, even as a desktop.. It's rock solid, has a CL, I can recompile the kernel, I can run Linux... FOSS apps, whatever I want. Please stop kidding yourself, macs have more value beyond being pretty. For a lot of people it SUITS THEIR NEEDS(*barf!!!) even if it's a traumatic experience for their pocket book.. i.e. users like ME

[pwnst*r]

Oh please get over yourself... I go to a school that requires I buy apple and for creative professionals it really does kick the pants off of Linux and Windows. Hell, even as a desktop.. It's rock solid, has a CL, I can recompile the kernel, I can run Linux... FOSS apps, whatever I want. Please stop kidding yourself, macs have more value beyond being pretty. For a lot of people it SUITS THEIR NEEDS(*barf!!!) even if it's a traumatic experience for their pocket book.. i.e. users like ME

leave him be. some people think they deserve everything and don't need to pay a dime for it.

[Simian Man]

I think this is just one-upmanship on the part of redmond. What better way to insult Apple than claim that an operating platform that Apple refuses to even acknowledge has a greater marketshare than the 'mac vs pc' people...


I think you hit the nail on the head.

[tgalati4]

The only statistic that matters is what are you using right now.

[MikeTheC]

Ballmer's hiding something. Remember: There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I don't have any way of being able to independently verify Microsoft's statistics nor generate my own (I mean, not without some major financial backing), but I'll tell you what I think about what was said, what was left unsaid, and the slides used in this article. And, for the moment, let's give Microsoft the benefit of the doubt (though I doubt Microsoft very much, personally, but...) and say the statistics are accurate.

Let's consider what we know to be true.
Microsoft has never been a great coder or developer of software, even on a good day, to begin with.
Microsoft got real huge back in the days of DOS 6.22 and Win 3.1/NT 3-3.5. It was right around that time they became the undeniable hegemony we all think of them as being today.
Microsoft has a known and established track record as a devious business which has used monopolistic (and here's the critical bit) anti-competitive practices, strong-arming practices, and lots of back-room manipulation to put together the power and the market share they have today.
Windows NT (fundamentally upon which all of their OS products have been based, from WinXP moving forward) was never designed to function in a completely wide-open networking environment.
Microsoft has become complacent in the long march from Win3.1/NT 4 to today, with everyone being snowballed and bullied and brainwashed into thinking the sun rises and sets on Redmond Washington.
Windows XP, because of it's NT heritage as well as being Microsoft's attempt to reconcile three different agendas (NT services, 9x feature set, and adding additional "modern" services) has been nothing less than a virus and exploit magnet which has collectively cost customers anything upwards of estimated hundreds of billions of dollars in security-related issues and support costs.
These things are known, they are provable and they are also demonstrable. Moreover:

We know that Apple has had a resurgence since Steve Jobs returned.
We know Microsoft has lost a lot of their actual good people to companies such as Google.
We know Zune has been a failure.
We know Apple has had a completely run-away, unqualified success with both their iPod product line and their iTunes service.
In general terms, we know Microsoft's attempts to combat this have, in a word, failed.
We also know that, with Bill Gates' "departure," Microsoft's got a slick-Willie used-car salesman for a leader now.
In addition, we know that Microsoft (for various reasons) had a stillborn-OS into which they'd poured a ton of money, resources and marketing, known as Vista, which still has problems so deeply entrenched that Microsoft's "solution" that's been given not just to the general public but to their corporate customers is "Wait for Windows 7."

My read is that what's really going on is Microsoft is simply trying to downplay how badly they're actually hemorrhaging. Look how they're willing -- gleeful, even -- to highlight how pirated copies of their software outnumber Apple and Linux combined, as a function of market share. Putting aside our own personal feelings for Microsoft for just a moment, why is it that doesn't seem to concern anybody? I mean, sure, Ballmer is paying lip service to it "That's a competitor that's tough to beat, they've got a good price and a heck of a product, but we're working on it," but that's not a full explanation. Why isn't he expressing how absolutely hopping-mad he is about losing almost a quarter of their market to piracy? He should be.

What Steve B. is very quietly trying to do is to lure your attention away from how Microsoft's market share is being eaten away at, and how serious a threat both Apple and Linux are. Also note these are results for client (i.e. "desktop") market share estimates only. There's not one word about the server side of things. Now that really is the elephant in the room that Microsoft doesn't want you to see.

So, folks, I don't know if you've ever really paid a bit of attention to anything I've said here on UbuntuForums, but if I might have all of it for just a moment, please try to understand the perceptual induction that Microsoft is trying to do here, and the fact that the truth is they're actually scared about us (I speak in the literal sense because I have one foot in each camp) and what we represent to them.

This isn't quite as good a news report as Steve Ballmer saying "We're folding next Tuesday," but if you really look at it, you can see that Microsoft's future is a lot more bleak -- assuming we don't screw this up significantly -- than they would want you to think.

[init1]

that has to be due to the fact that a lot of small gadgets run off of a version of linux
The study only includes desktops
http://www.osnews.com/img/21035/ballmermacs.png

[MikeTheC]

The study only includes desktops[/img]

I agree; did you look at my analysis in which I did mention this?

(For what it's worth, I didn't mention embedded devices, mostly because I didn't believe it was completely relevant to the presentation SteveB gave, but I'll readily admit it further adds to both what I said as well as what you and everyone else are talking about.)

[MikeTheC]

http://www.osnews.com/img/21035/ballmermacs.png
Moreover, I dunno, maybe it's just me, but those apostropheed plurals are most annoying. Microsoft is (allegedly) a professional organization. Who'd they have doing this PowerPoint, some reject high school student?

[mr.propre]

Sound logic for a few reasons, one of them, I think, is because Linux is much closer to be implement into companies, where Apple is more a computer for the consumer market.

In most large company's today the computers are already managed by Linux (Novell) servers and software, but also most file, web and mail servers are *nix based.

The next step would be the desktop and thats the place with the big money.

[MikeTheC]

There are times when I wish I was a major shareholder at Microsoft, because then I'd ask things like:

So, Steve, in a recent conference you gave a presentation at which you showed about a 20-odd percent loss to piracy for your OS platform. Now, we all know this is something that has been going on for years, even under your predecessor. My question is this: when can we expect you to have this fixed, or do we need to start looking for someone else who will fix this problem?

[monsterstack]

There are times when I wish I was a major shareholder at Microsoft, because then I'd ask things like:

So, Steve, in a recent conference you gave a presentation at which you showed about a 20-odd percent loss to piracy for your OS platform. Now, we all know this is something that has been going on for years, even under your predecessor. My question is this: when can we expect you to have this fixed, or do we need to start looking for someone else who will fix this problem?

We all know how well that would go.

[The shareholders meeting begins.]
Shareholder 1: So Steve, great quarter.
Ballmer: THANKS A LOT, WE'RE VERY HAPPY!
SHareholder 1: But I was wondering about the problem we have with piracy. How are you going to get all those pirates in Asia to start buying genuine products so we leverage our profits?
Ballmer: YEAH IT'S A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM! BUT AT LEAST IF THEY'RE PIRATING, THEY'RE PIRATING OUR SOFTWARE! THAT MAKES MORE [Ballmer pauses for breath] MORE POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS!
Shareholder 1: Sure, but we need less potential and more delivery! I want to know what you intend to do about it.
Ballmer: WELL WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO IS CHANGE THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM! WHAT WE NEED ARE DEVELOPERS-
Shareholder 1: Oh God no...
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
Shareholder 2: Someone! make him stop!
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS [throws a chair] DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS!

[toupeiro]

We all know how well that would go.

[The shareholders meeting begins.]
Shareholder 1: So Steve, great quarter.
Ballmer: THANKS A LOT, WE'RE VERY HAPPY!
SHareholder 1: But I was wondering about the problem we have with piracy. How are you going to get all those pirates in Asia to start buying genuine products so we leverage our profits?
Ballmer: YEAH IT'S A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM! BUT AT LEAST IF THEY'RE PIRATING, THEY'RE PIRATING OUR SOFTWARE! THAT MAKES MORE [Ballmer pauses for breath] MORE POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS!
Shareholder 1: Sure, but we need less potential and more delivery! I want to know what you intend to do about it.
Ballmer: WELL WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO IS CHANGE THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM! WHAT WE NEED ARE DEVELOPERS-
Shareholder 1: Oh God no...
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
Shareholder 2: Someone! make him stop!
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS [throws a chair] DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS!

LOL! priceless.

[Ozor Mox]

We all know how well that would go.

[The shareholders meeting begins.]
Shareholder 1: So Steve, great quarter.
Ballmer: THANKS A LOT, WE'RE VERY HAPPY!
SHareholder 1: But I was wondering about the problem we have with piracy. How are you going to get all those pirates in Asia to start buying genuine products so we leverage our profits?
Ballmer: YEAH IT'S A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM! BUT AT LEAST IF THEY'RE PIRATING, THEY'RE PIRATING OUR SOFTWARE! THAT MAKES MORE [Ballmer pauses for breath] MORE POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS!
Shareholder 1: Sure, but we need less potential and more delivery! I want to know what you intend to do about it.
Ballmer: WELL WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO IS CHANGE THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM! WHAT WE NEED ARE DEVELOPERS-
Shareholder 1: Oh God no...
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
Shareholder 2: Someone! make him stop!
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS [throws a chair] DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS!

Ahahahaha! That's got to be one of the best things I've ever read! Thanks :D

[LuigiAntoniol]

We all know how well that would go.

[The shareholders meeting begins.]
Shareholder 1: So Steve, great quarter.
Ballmer: THANKS A LOT, WE'RE VERY HAPPY!
SHareholder 1: But I was wondering about the problem we have with piracy. How are you going to get all those pirates in Asia to start buying genuine products so we leverage our profits?
Ballmer: YEAH IT'S A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM! BUT AT LEAST IF THEY'RE PIRATING, THEY'RE PIRATING OUR SOFTWARE! THAT MAKES MORE [Ballmer pauses for breath] MORE POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS!
Shareholder 1: Sure, but we need less potential and more delivery! I want to know what you intend to do about it.
Ballmer: WELL WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO IS CHANGE THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM! WHAT WE NEED ARE DEVELOPERS-
Shareholder 1: Oh God no...
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
Shareholder 2: Someone! make him stop!
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS [throws a chair] DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS!

:lolflag::lolflag::lolflag::lolflag::lolflag::lolf lag:

That was too good!

[MikeTheC]

We all know how well that would go.

[The shareholders meeting begins.]
Shareholder 1: So Steve, great quarter.
Ballmer: THANKS A LOT, WE'RE VERY HAPPY!
SHareholder 1: But I was wondering about the problem we have with piracy. How are you going to get all those pirates in Asia to start buying genuine products so we leverage our profits?
Ballmer: YEAH IT'S A VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM! BUT AT LEAST IF THEY'RE PIRATING, THEY'RE PIRATING OUR SOFTWARE! THAT MAKES MORE [Ballmer pauses for breath] MORE POTENTIAL CUSTOMERS!
Shareholder 1: Sure, but we need less potential and more delivery! I want to know what you intend to do about it.
Ballmer: WELL WHAT WE'RE GONNA DO IS CHANGE THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM! WHAT WE NEED ARE DEVELOPERS-
Shareholder 1: Oh God no...
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS
Shareholder 2: Someone! make him stop!
Ballmer: DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS [throws a chair] DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS DEVELOPERS!

Heck yeah! ROFL!!!! Serious +1 to that!

[sim-value]

leave him be. some people think they deserve everything and don't need to pay a dime for it.

I was speaking of Home Users ...

And i live in europe and said what i see around me .

Nothing else ..

No matter for how the HW/OS is like Apple does target people how want "Shiny" things ...

/me

PS: And i still enjoyed watching Wall-E even though the movie was made on a mac :D

[hanzomon4]

I was speaking of Home Users ...



PS: And i still enjoyed watching Wall-E even though the movie was made on a mac :D


Then you sir are a fine human being... a gentleman and a scholar

[Regenweald]

I think you hit the nail on the head.

After a senior Apple engineer recently said that apple has no interest in netbooks, then further felt the need to point out that only crappy software exists on netbooks, there should be no love lost between us and Apple. But rather than me paraphrasing:

http://gizmodo.com/5223490/apple-on-netbooks-if-we-find-a-way-we-can-deliver-an-innovative-product

PS: Apple users, we have no beef, It's the company and not your choice of operating platform that i have a problem with.

[Screwdriver0815]

Ballmer's hiding something. Remember: There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I don't have any way of being able to independently verify Microsoft's statistics nor generate my own (I mean, not without some major financial backing), but I'll tell you what I think about what was said, what was left unsaid, and the slides used in this article. And, for the moment, let's give Microsoft the benefit of the doubt (though I doubt Microsoft very much, personally, but...) and say the statistics are accurate.

Let's consider what we know to be true.
Microsoft has never been a great coder or developer of software, even on a good day, to begin with.
Microsoft got real huge back in the days of DOS 6.22 and Win 3.1/NT 3-3.5. It was right around that time they became the undeniable hegemony we all think of them as being today.
Microsoft has a known and established track record as a devious business which has used monopolistic (and here's the critical bit) anti-competitive practices, strong-arming practices, and lots of back-room manipulation to put together the power and the market share they have today.
Windows NT (fundamentally upon which all of their OS products have been based, from WinXP moving forward) was never designed to function in a completely wide-open networking environment.
Microsoft has become complacent in the long march from Win3.1/NT 4 to today, with everyone being snowballed and bullied and brainwashed into thinking the sun rises and sets on Redmond Washington.
Windows XP, because of it's NT heritage as well as being Microsoft's attempt to reconcile three different agendas (NT services, 9x feature set, and adding additional "modern" services) has been nothing less than a virus and exploit magnet which has collectively cost customers anything upwards of estimated hundreds of billions of dollars in security-related issues and support costs.
These things are known, they are provable and they are also demonstrable. Moreover:

We know that Apple has had a resurgence since Steve Jobs returned.
We know Microsoft has lost a lot of their actual good people to companies such as Google.
We know Zune has been a failure.
We know Apple has had a completely run-away, unqualified success with both their iPod product line and their iTunes service.
In general terms, we know Microsoft's attempts to combat this have, in a word, failed.
We also know that, with Bill Gates' "departure," Microsoft's got a slick-Willie used-car salesman for a leader now.
In addition, we know that Microsoft (for various reasons) had a stillborn-OS into which they'd poured a ton of money, resources and marketing, known as Vista, which still has problems so deeply entrenched that Microsoft's "solution" that's been given not just to the general public but to their corporate customers is "Wait for Windows 7."

My read is that what's really going on is Microsoft is simply trying to downplay how badly they're actually hemorrhaging. Look how they're willing -- gleeful, even -- to highlight how pirated copies of their software outnumber Apple and Linux combined, as a function of market share. Putting aside our own personal feelings for Microsoft for just a moment, why is it that doesn't seem to concern anybody? I mean, sure, Ballmer is paying lip service to it "That's a competitor that's tough to beat, they've got a good price and a heck of a product, but we're working on it," but that's not a full explanation. Why isn't he expressing how absolutely hopping-mad he is about losing almost a quarter of their market to piracy? He should be.

What Steve B. is very quietly trying to do is to lure your attention away from how Microsoft's market share is being eaten away at, and how serious a threat both Apple and Linux are. Also note these are results for client (i.e. "desktop") market share estimates only. There's not one word about the server side of things. Now that really is the elephant in the room that Microsoft doesn't want you to see.

So, folks, I don't know if you've ever really paid a bit of attention to anything I've said here on UbuntuForums, but if I might have all of it for just a moment, please try to understand the perceptual induction that Microsoft is trying to do here, and the fact that the truth is they're actually scared about us (I speak in the literal sense because I have one foot in each camp) and what we represent to them.

This isn't quite as good a news report as Steve Ballmer saying "We're folding next Tuesday," but if you really look at it, you can see that Microsoft's future is a lot more bleak -- assuming we don't screw this up significantly -- than they would want you to think.
I absolutly agree with that.

I think, besides that Steve wanted to bring the eyes of the audience away from the fact that Microsoft is scared, he wants to prepare the company for the future.

How do I come to this? Recently I thought about the next decade in operating systems. We all know that the model which Microsoft is trying to sell is oldfashioned and not taking care on the needs of the customer. So it is clear: Microsoft will fail. Fail like they did in a smaller scale with Bob, Me, Zune, MSN and all this stuff I don´ t know because I don´ t care.
There will be some time in the future, when the customer gets more power on the market. Simply because the customer becomes aware of the fact that he is the one who drives the market. So more and more Computer Companies will jump on the train and sell Computers without operating system or with pre-installed Linux.

So what I want to say is: what will happen, when the majority of customers says: "I don´ t want to buy windows for 260 (!!) Euros. I´ d rather buy Suse or Mandriva for 59 Euros"? Or when the majority of customers says: "lets download the system for free, legaly".

This will be the end of an Era. And the beginning of a time where Microsoft becomes a Linux distributor. Yes, the will do this! They will fail in this too, but they at least will try it because they want to survive.

Deep in his mind Steve knows that Microsoft will fail if they go this way like they did it in the past. He knows that he has to change the whole company. Already in 2003 he stated that Linux is a serious competitor and that Microsoft will rise to this challenge. So he recognised that there is a strong competitor - in opposition to the Apple guys.
I mean, I don´ t like Steve Ballmer. He is an arrogant and annoying guy. But he is not stupid. He wants to prepare the shareholders and the staff for the turning, Microsoft has to do. Thats why he came up with this presentation.

Sure, he will fail because Microsoft can not be a Linux distributor as the others are. But he will try and this is the beginning.

this vid shows the truth:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtdnZNYN0MM&feature=related

also when you look at the numbers:

Red Hat has raisen their earnings by 19% in the last quarter, while Micrsoft has lost 18%. http://www.heise.de/open/Die-Woche-Wachstum-in-schwierigen-Zeiten--/artikel/137404 http://www.heise.de/newsticker/Die-Wirtschaftskrise-beutelt-Microsoft-Umsatz-und-Gewinn-gehen-zurueck--/meldung/136701 okay, its german but it backs up what I am saying.

And also when you look at all this with cloud computing and so on: nobody mentions Microsoft! The only thing from them in the news is Windows 7....

[aysiu]

There will be some time in the future, when the customer gets more power on the market. Simply because the customer becomes aware of the fact that he is the one who drives the market. So more and more Computer Companies will jump on the train and sell Computers without operating system or with pre-installed Linux. There's no way that selling computers without an OS will be the norm. People want to buy a product. They don't want to buy parts. The population that likes to install and configure their own operating systems is a fraction of a percentage of the general computing populace.


So what I want to say is: what will happen, when the majority of customers says: "I don´ t want to buy windows for 260 (!!) Euros. I´ d rather buy Suse or Mandriva for 59 Euros"? Microsoft will lower its Windows license prices to be virtually free to OEMs and use its corporate muscle to coerce the OEMs into shipping Windows and downplaying Linux offerings... just as Microsoft does now.
Or when the majority of customers says: "lets download the system for free, legaly". The majority of customers would rather pirate than pay 260 Euros for Windows. I like to get legal copies of software, but a lot of people do not have that same desire.

[Wiebelhaus]

see this!

http://www.osnews.com/story/21035/Ballmer_Linux_Bigger_Competitor_than_Apple

If we could just knock out that light blue the haters would have an aneurysm.

[Screwdriver0815]

There's no way that selling computers without an OS will be the norm. People want to buy a product. They don't want to buy parts. The population that likes to install and configure their own operating systems is a fraction of a percentage of the general computing populace.
over here we have lots of companies who sell computers (not parts!) without OS. Of course: many people are stupid enough to go to the big stores where you get only the expensive stuff. But there are also lots of people who don't and order their stuff without OS.

So what you say is your opinion, not fact. Thats how I understand it. And my opinion (not fact) is that in the next decade the behaviour of the customer will change. The customer becomes more critical.



Microsoft will lower its Windows license prices to be virtually free to OEMs and use its corporate muscle to coerce the OEMs into shipping Windows and downplaying Linux offerings... just as Microsoft does now. The majority of customers would rather pirate than pay 260 Euros for Windows. I like to get legal copies of software, but a lot of people do not have that same desire.
of course they will but they also did it with the Netbooks. And? they did not win. They got back some marketshare of course but not as much as they usually have in all parts of the Computer market. They also started some FUD http://blog.canonical.com/?p=151
about all this - this shows that they know that they are losing. Their time is running out. Better: the time of their current business model is running out. So they have to change - thats what Ballmer wants to do.
Pirating is a thing which is common too of course. But in these times as we face some gouvernmental strategies for intelligence control of the internet, people consider that they will be caught on that - sooner or later. So more and more people look for legal alternatives.

[aysiu]

over here we have lots of companies who sell computers (not parts!) without OS. Of course: many people are stupid enough to go to the big stores where you get only the expensive stuff. But there are also lots of people who don't and order their stuff without OS.

So what you say is your opinion, not fact. Thats how I understand it. And my opinion (not fact) is that in the next decade the behaviour of the customer will change. The customer becomes more critical. Can you link me to some stats that show the majority of Germans buy their computers without an OS installed?


of course they will but they also did it with the Netbooks. And? they did not win. They got back some marketshare of course but not as much as they usually have in all parts of the Computer market. They also started some FUD http://blog.canonical.com/?p=151
about all this - this shows that they know that they are losing. Their time is running out. Better: the time of their current business model is running out. So they have to change - thats what Ballmer wants to do. Marketshare is what Microsoft cares about. You can define "winning" the way you want to, but as far as Microsoft and its shareholders are concerned, Windows has "won" in the netbook scene.

[mamamia88]

it probably does to be honest. it's free anyone is free to download it and macs cost alot of money.

[Screwdriver0815]

Can you link me to some stats that show the majority of Germans buy their computers without an OS installed?
no I can't and that is not what I said. I said, that there is a lot of companies who offer these systems. Even on Amazon you can buy computers without OS. They wouldn't do that if there wasn't enough market for that ;)



Marketshare is what Microsoft cares about. You can define "winning" the way you want to, but as far as Microsoft and its shareholders are concerned, Windows has "won" in the netbook scene.
thats true. It depends on the individual sight of the things. But when you say that Microsoft says that they have "won" in the netbook market, then you imply that they were stupid. They surely are not. They realised that Vista was a complete waste of effort. They had to put Xp back into service for the netbooks. They had to say to the customer "no matter what you want, Xp is gone and for the desktop you only get Vista, nothing else".
I can not imagine that they are still convinced that they haven't done mistakes. Beside all these improvements in Windows 7 regarding the system requirements there is another sign for that: Windows 7 RC copies will expire latest sometime next year. So this for me is a sign that they want to win back users or want to prevent themselves from losing lots of customers to Linux.

All this is a sign of desperation for me.

Just for my understanding: I say that Ballmer wants to prepare Microsoft for the future (to turn away from the oldfashioned business model). And I also say that they will fail. Do you say, that this is entirely not right? Or do you say that I am wrong in terms that they will fail?

[aysiu]

no I can't and that is not what I said. I said, that there is a lot of companies who offer these systems. Even on Amazon you can buy computers without OS. They wouldn't do that if there wasn't enough market for that ;) And I didn't say there isn't a market for no-OS computers. I'm saying it's a marginal or niche market. The vast majority of computers will be sold with an OS preinstalled.


thats true. It depends on the individual sight of the things. But when you say that Microsoft says that they have "won" in the netbook market, then you imply that they were stupid. They surely are not. They realised that Vista was a complete waste of effort. They had to put Xp back into service for the netbooks. They had to say to the customer "no matter what you want, Xp is gone and for the desktop you only get Vista, nothing else".
I can not imagine that they are still convinced that they haven't done mistakes. Beside all these improvements in Windows 7 regarding the system requirements there is another sign for that: Windows 7 RC copies will expire latest sometime next year. So this for me is a sign that they want to win back users or want to prevent themselves from losing lots of customers to Linux. Well, actually, I do think they were stupid. But they wised up quite quickly. First they told OEMs "XP's done. You have to sell Vista. We have to start moving people to Vista." That was stupid. Once Microsoft saw Asus' success with the Xandros Eee PC, they quickly wised up and said "Okay... Vista for everything except netbooks. Netbooks can run XP until we get this marketshare back from Linux. Then we'll push people to Vista's successor, which we'll make sure can run on lower specs."


All this is a sign of desperation for me.

Just for my understanding: I say that Ballmer wants to prepare Microsoft for the future (to turn away from the oldfashioned business model). And I also say that they will fail. Do you say, that this is entirely not right? Or do you say that I am wrong in terms that they will fail? I don't know what will happen. The only thing I know is that people's predictions about technology tend to be wrong. There are too many unforeseen factors. We don't know what new technological breakthroughs will happen in the next few years. We don't know what legislation, court rulings, and economic shifts will influence computing trends.

I grew up in an age when 640k of RAM was considered a luxury. There was no internet for home users, not even dial-up. If a graphics card could support more than three colors, it was sophisticated and game-worthy. Only extremely rich people could afford laptops (which were gigantic). And when I booted up Microsoft's operating system, I got a command prompt.

Do you really think at the time I imagined a quarter of a century later we'd have netbooks and Linux and multi-touch trackpads, portable music players and broadband internet access? There's no way I could have predicted that, and I don't think anyone back in the 80s did. Social networking? Even that was totally unimaginable ten years ago.

Could Microsoft fail? Sure. Could it adapt to changes? Sure. Could things stay more or less the same? Sure. I don't pretend I know the future.

[Teber]

wise words aysiu.

i remember installing my first harddisk on an amiga. the size of a planet: 20 mb!

people can't even establish the current market shares! for all we know no longer used licenses may be incorporated in them. as in computers to have been laid to rest in attics and cellars. some people own five windows licenses or more...

come to think of it. my computer was purchased without license. does that mean it doesn't exist?

i won't knock other people's choices. i'm happy with what i've got and i respect everyone else.

[wsonar]

Well, rumor goes that Ubuntu is not popular in Africa at all, except in South Africa, I have no idea whether another Linux distribution would be more popular in the whole of Africa.
The rest of Africa might just be using ("pirated"?) version of MS-Windows.

I know the 1 laptop perchild program was an opensource laptop

http://laptop.org/en/

Don't know the success of the program

[Screwdriver0815]

@aysiu:

okay, thats a good point and it is right. We can not look into the future and we don't know what will happen.

But Steve Ballmer and all these manager guys have to. They have to know which challenges their company will face in the next 5 years.
And as Microsoft has wised up on their mistakes in the past, they know that there will be a change in the market and in the economic circumstances.
Or at least they have to prepare for something new.
I remember that they have spread loads of FUD and did things like "Embrace, Extend and Extinguish" with the Netscape Navigator for example. They don't do this anymore. Okay - they have sued TomTom... and they still do some FUD... but this is not the same category like in the past. The FUD they spread is only grown on desperation.

So they are changing. And they will change even more.

How the change of the entire market and the software ecosystem will look like - thats what we don't know. As you say

But I am convinced that there is something on the way. And I don't know the future too.

I have started with Win95 , had Windows Me and Xp. I wanted something new and tried Suse 10.1 and Ubuntu 6.06 and 6.10. All these Linuxsystems did not work on my computer. But I tried it again in April 2008, everything worked out of the box and since then I am converted. What I saw during these times was a huge improvement in Linux. Drivers, Desktop experience, Software, Documentation. There has been done such a huge effort in this. When you look at all these different ways to do something for the user. In Suse you have YAST, in Debian/ Ubuntu you have Synaptic, in Mandriva Urpmi and MCC and so on. All this are example how many things were contributed to improve Linux. This leads me personally to the conclusion that there will be a change. Because the improvements will not stop and Microsoft is alone, fighting against lots of people and companies. They must change.

[Wiebelhaus]

I know the 1 laptop perchild program was an opensource laptop

http://laptop.org/en/

Don't know the success of the program

I'm sure anywhere but South Africa that their OS isn't really an issue , considering it's riddled with war and poverty and AIDS and starvation.

[Johnsie]

More people using Linux is not always a good thing. In fact it would make us a target.

[aysiu]

More people using Linux is not always a good thing. In fact it would make us a target.
I don't mind being a target, since most effective malware comes in the form of a trojan, which I know better than to fall for.

I would love the extra commercial hardware and software support, though.

So, yeah, I think more people using Linux is a good thing.

[Johnsie]

at the moment most stuff comes via malware,but that wont always be the case. Cyber crime is is evolving just like other technologies. The best hackers will get information about you without you even knowing it... And if the pentagon can get hacked into then I'm pretty sure you can be hacked too lol, unless you're some kind of l33t unhackable genius :-D

Over confidence is not good security practice :-)

[Screwdriver0815]

So, yeah, I think more people using Linux is a good thing.
to me it doesn't matter although I think this will happen.

Being a target... I think the common wording like "many eyes see more" in terms of finding security issues in Linux is true and is a hard competitor for virus programmers.
And my personal opinion is: saying that windows is a target because of its major marketshare is Microsoft FUD - they don't want to be guilty for an OS which is simply not secure.

[aysiu]

at the moment most stuff comes via malware,but that wont always be the case. Cyber crime is is evolving just like other technologies. The best hackers will get information about you without you even knowing it... And if the pentagon can get hacked into then I'm pretty sure you can be hacked too lol, unless you're some kind of l33t unhackable genius :-D

Over confidence is not good security practice :-)
Well if the crackers are working on the server end of things, I don't see how an increased consumer market share for Linux is even relevant.

[monsterstack]

How will trojan horse writers cope?

Hey, download this tarball, explode it in your home directory, run "chmod +x exploit.sh" in the directory it untars in, and then run "sudo ./exploit.sh" to see a really funny picture!

[aysiu]

How will trojan horse writers cope?

Hey, download this tarball, explode it in your home directory, run "chmod +x exploit.sh" in the directory it untars in, and then run "sudo ./exploit.sh" to see a really funny picture!
Just have a pop-up saying you need to install a certain codec to view this website and then offer the "codec" as a .deb file for the Ubuntu user to double-click.

[Screwdriver0815]

How will trojan horse writers cope?

Hey, download this tarball, explode it in your home directory, run "chmod +x exploit.sh" in the directory it untars in, and then run "sudo ./exploit.sh" to see a really funny picture!
but this is social engineering and something which the OS is not responsible for. If the user is dumb enough to follow advises from strange persons he is guilty on his own.

Its the same as if someone would agree to deals, proposed by nigerian people who say that they want to get 15 million dollars out of the country... in this case the mailprogram is also not responsible when the user gets ripped off some thousends of dollars.

[MikeTheC]

While I agree that nobody can literally "see" the future, enough has happened already to suggest certain behaviors and attitudes, particularly on the part of, say, Microsoft. They're not "changing" so much as they're "morphing" into the next big, bloated evil version of what they've been right along.

It doesn't take being a rocket scientist to see that, nor does it require being clairvoyant. You simply have to accept that the past is prologue and that what Microsoft has been is a definitive influence on whatever it is they're trying to become.

As I said, I don't trust Microsoft and I never will. I didn't trust Bill Gates when he was the head of Microsoft (I still don't trust him now) and I don't trust Steve Ballmer.

[Screwdriver0815]

While I agree that nobody can literally "see" the future, enough has happened already to suggest certain behaviors and attitudes, particularly on the part of, say, Microsoft. They're not "changing" so much as they're "morphing" into the next big, bloated evil version of what they've been right along.

It doesn't take being a rocket scientist to see that, nor does it require being clairvoyant. You simply have to accept that the past is prologue and that what Microsoft has been is a definitive influence on whatever it is they're trying to become.

As I said, I don't trust Microsoft and I never will. I didn't trust Bill Gates when he was the head of Microsoft (I still don't trust him now) and I don't trust Steve Ballmer.

I also don't trust them.

I think when they have "morphed" into their next evil stage, they will go down immediatly. Because no company on earth can be evil forever. Sooner or later they have to change (if they are succeful in this doesn't matter). Otherwise they are gone without trying to use some chances.

And thats what I think, Ballmer has realised. But maybe I am wrong and they are more evil and stupid than anyone can imagine...

[albinootje]

But maybe I am wrong and they are more evil and stupid than anyone can imagine...

I think Microsoft has been clever and sneaky since years, they're not going down so easily, and even if they would, many people would
keep on using MS products (Think about companies forcing their workers and sometimes IT-staff to use MS-products).

I just came across this article from 2006 about the migration to Linux in the city of Munich, which shows the following :



Microsoft had fought hard to retain the government's business, with CEO Steve Ballmer interrupting a skiing holiday at one point to pay a personal visit to the city's mayor. The software giant also tried to tempt the government with a range of deals and discounts.


If Linux is not a competitor of MS, why would MS offer discounts, and interrupt a personal holiday ?
Was Steve on cocaine again ? (See monkey dance video for transpira... inspiration).

[rasmukri]

well i guess i am really sticking it to Microsoft because i run Linux and pirated copies of windows on all my computers and pirated copies of it on all my friends computers.
suck it Microsoft :D

[aysiu]

well i guess i am really sticking it to Microsoft because i run Linux and pirated copies of windows on all my computers and pirated copies of it on all my friends computers.
suck it Microsoft :D
Actually, Bill Gates likes piracy. It keeps people addicted to Windows. Of course, he'd like it more if you paid for your copy of Windows.

More details here:
The Truth about Open Source and Piracy (http://www.psychocats.net/ubuntucat/the-truth-about-open-source-and-piracy/)

[BuffaloX]

Ballmer's hiding something. Remember: There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

What Steve B. is very quietly trying to do is to lure your attention away from how Microsoft's market share is being eaten away at

So, folks, I don't know if you've ever really paid a bit of attention to anything I've said here on UbuntuForums

This isn't quite as good a news report as Steve Ballmer saying "We're folding next Tuesday," but if you really look at it, you can see that Microsoft's future is a lot more bleak -- assuming we don't screw this up significantly -- than they would want you to think.

Hmm interesting, I agree with your post in general, and yes I do notice your posts, also the funny ones. :D

I find the last part an especially interesting interpretation, for now it seems to me that MAC and Linux are just blibs on the MS radar, but even small blibs on their radar can result in millions of dollars lost.

[sydbat]

hi
i just wonder if anybody else noticed the conceptual pairing of Linux and piracy. the two terms were used together a number of times in the article and i felt that this led to an unconscious association.
it's as if the writer were trying to create that kind of association so that when somebody heard the term 'Linux' their subconscious said 'pirate'.
cheers
nigelInteresting that everyone missed this. Thanks for pointing it out capnthommo (Nigel)!


Ballmer's hiding something. Remember: There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I don't have any way of being able to independently verify Microsoft's statistics nor generate my own (I mean, not without some major financial backing), but I'll tell you what I think about what was said, what was left unsaid, and the slides used in this article. And, for the moment, let's give Microsoft the benefit of the doubt (though I doubt Microsoft very much, personally, but...) and say the statistics are accurate.

Let's consider what we know to be true.
Microsoft has never been a great coder or developer of software, even on a good day, to begin with.
Microsoft got real huge back in the days of DOS 6.22 and Win 3.1/NT 3-3.5. It was right around that time they became the undeniable hegemony we all think of them as being today.
Microsoft has a known and established track record as a devious business which has used monopolistic (and here's the critical bit) anti-competitive practices, strong-arming practices, and lots of back-room manipulation to put together the power and the market share they have today.
Windows NT (fundamentally upon which all of their OS products have been based, from WinXP moving forward) was never designed to function in a completely wide-open networking environment.
Microsoft has become complacent in the long march from Win3.1/NT 4 to today, with everyone being snowballed and bullied and brainwashed into thinking the sun rises and sets on Redmond Washington.
Windows XP, because of it's NT heritage as well as being Microsoft's attempt to reconcile three different agendas (NT services, 9x feature set, and adding additional "modern" services) has been nothing less than a virus and exploit magnet which has collectively cost customers anything upwards of estimated hundreds of billions of dollars in security-related issues and support costs.
These things are known, they are provable and they are also demonstrable. Moreover:

We know that Apple has had a resurgence since Steve Jobs returned.
We know Microsoft has lost a lot of their actual good people to companies such as Google.
We know Zune has been a failure.
We know Apple has had a completely run-away, unqualified success with both their iPod product line and their iTunes service.
In general terms, we know Microsoft's attempts to combat this have, in a word, failed.
We also know that, with Bill Gates' "departure," Microsoft's got a slick-Willie used-car salesman for a leader now.
In addition, we know that Microsoft (for various reasons) had a stillborn-OS into which they'd poured a ton of money, resources and marketing, known as Vista, which still has problems so deeply entrenched that Microsoft's "solution" that's been given not just to the general public but to their corporate customers is "Wait for Windows 7."

My read is that what's really going on is Microsoft is simply trying to downplay how badly they're actually hemorrhaging. Look how they're willing -- gleeful, even -- to highlight how pirated copies of their software outnumber Apple and Linux combined, as a function of market share. Putting aside our own personal feelings for Microsoft for just a moment, why is it that doesn't seem to concern anybody? I mean, sure, Ballmer is paying lip service to it "That's a competitor that's tough to beat, they've got a good price and a heck of a product, but we're working on it," but that's not a full explanation. Why isn't he expressing how absolutely hopping-mad he is about losing almost a quarter of their market to piracy? He should be.

What Steve B. is very quietly trying to do is to lure your attention away from how Microsoft's market share is being eaten away at, and how serious a threat both Apple and Linux are. Also note these are results for client (i.e. "desktop") market share estimates only. There's not one word about the server side of things. Now that really is the elephant in the room that Microsoft doesn't want you to see.

So, folks, I don't know if you've ever really paid a bit of attention to anything I've said here on UbuntuForums, but if I might have all of it for just a moment, please try to understand the perceptual induction that Microsoft is trying to do here, and the fact that the truth is they're actually scared about us (I speak in the literal sense because I have one foot in each camp) and what we represent to them.

This isn't quite as good a news report as Steve Ballmer saying "We're folding next Tuesday," but if you really look at it, you can see that Microsoft's future is a lot more bleak -- assuming we don't screw this up significantly -- than they would want you to think.This board won't let me make my +1 infinity font...

[maflynn]

I a long time mac user and to be honest I'm not surprised that this could happen. Mac's have a very small market share and OSX only runs (legally) on apple hardware. This further limits who is using OSX. Where as linux runs on many different platforms, (powerpc, intel, even phones and other devices).