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View Full Version : All OS are dying except for Ubuntu!



MIH1406
March 18th, 2009, 09:11 PM
Look at these screenshots of Google Trends for a comparison between Ubuntu and the other OS:

Screenshot 1:
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1139/trends01.th.png (http://img25.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends01.png)

Screenshot 2:
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/9040/trends02.th.png (http://img26.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends02.png)

Screenshot 3:
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/4750/trends03.th.png (http://img24.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends03.png)

You will see that all other Linux Disruptions are going to die with the commercial OS.

adamlau
March 18th, 2009, 09:13 PM
Grain of salt. openSUSE, Fedora and Debian are as alive as they ever were.

jimi_hendrix
March 18th, 2009, 09:14 PM
where are those results from?

i doubt we have more users than vista...

exploder
March 18th, 2009, 09:16 PM
PCLinux is doing well with their new release.

simtaalo
March 18th, 2009, 09:16 PM
all that measures is google searches, not much statistical integrity there.

Helios1276
March 18th, 2009, 09:16 PM
THE SKY IS FALLING ..oh wait ..wait no..sorry my bad

D3ath
March 18th, 2009, 09:17 PM
those are really cool stats. Do you have a link its hard to believe that Ubuntu is doing better than Mac. Im not mac fanboy but im sure ubuntu would be right be hide them.

C!oud
March 18th, 2009, 09:19 PM
I severely doubt that this stats are factual since you provide an image hosted on ImageShack rather than an actual link. That being said if all the other OS are dying that's generally a bad thing for everyone including Ubuntu.

D3ath
March 18th, 2009, 09:24 PM
I severely doubt that this stats are factual since you provide an image hosted on ImageShack rather than an actual link. That being said if all the other OS are dying that's generally a bad thing for everyone including Ubuntu.

Right On!:D

Vince4Amy
March 18th, 2009, 09:25 PM
If the other OS's are going then you can say goodbye to:

A Lot of Kernel Contributions
Gnome
Ext3
KDE
OpenOffice
Banshee

Oh wait, that means Ubuntu can't possibly exist anymore without someone taking over and continuing to develop all of the applications that Debian, Red Hat and Novell give. That certainly won't be an easy task

sports fan Matt
March 18th, 2009, 09:26 PM
I could hardly see that graph...lol

issih
March 18th, 2009, 09:27 PM
Without meaning to cause offence, I'm going to say that that is utter cobblers.

Ubuntu is growing, and that's good, if for no other reason than increased linux adoption will improve linux, but the other major distros aren't going to go anywhere, and neither is MS or Apple.

The small independent distros will no doubt pop in and out of existence with as much enthusiasm as they always have. The big players will still be here in 10 years.

Kareeser
March 18th, 2009, 09:29 PM
If the other OS's are going then you can say goodbye to:

A Lot of Kernel Contributions
Gnome
Ext3
KDE
OpenOffice
Banshee

Oh wait, that means Ubuntu can't possibly exist anymore without someone taking over and continuing to develop all of the applications that Debian, Red Hat and Novell give. That certainly won't be an easy task

Surprisingly true!

p.s., those stats are from google trends. You can do them yourself.

Although according to this pictures, Windows Vista is not "dying"... in fact, searches are going up :)

Giant Speck
March 18th, 2009, 09:30 PM
Oh crap. I might as well wipe my Windows partitions because obviously Ubuntu is the only worthy operating system. Thanks, Google Trends!

Kosimo
March 18th, 2009, 09:38 PM
If Debian dies... Ubuntu dies... Never forget that!

Kareeser
March 18th, 2009, 09:39 PM
If Debian dies... Ubuntu dies... Never forget that!
I don't know about that. It's entirely possible that Debian could be deemed obsolete, and the devs could jump ship to Ubuntu in one mass bloodless political coup :)

Vince4Amy
March 18th, 2009, 09:40 PM
It's entirely possible that Debian could be deemed obsolete

Debian is by no means obsolete.

Greg
March 18th, 2009, 09:45 PM
It's google trends. Doesn't it compare search density?

Giant Speck
March 18th, 2009, 09:55 PM
It's google trends. Doesn't it compare search density?

Yes.

MIH1406
March 18th, 2009, 09:55 PM
I took these screenshots from Google Trends:

Links:
Screenshot 1:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+opensuse%2C+linux+mint%2C+fedor a%2C+debian&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Screenshot 2:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+mandriva%2C+pclinuxos%2C+centos&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Screenshot 3:
http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+macosx%2C+mac+os+x%2C+windows+v ista%2C+windows+xp&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

simtaalo
March 18th, 2009, 09:56 PM
It's google trends. Doesn't it compare search density?

all it compares are total number of searches.

a reasonable explanation for the stats could be the amount of new people using ubuntu that have to search for answers to issues/problems/finding software for ubuntu could contribute to that amount of hits.

many of the other distro's don't have as many linux-n00bs therefore not as many searches needed.

this theory would also account for the relatively low hits for mac, and also the spike on the vista figures.

Greg
March 18th, 2009, 09:59 PM
all it compares are total number of searches.

a reasonable explanation for the stats could be the amount of new people using ubuntu that have to search for answers to issues/problems/finding software for ubuntu could contribute to that amount of hits.

many of the other distro's don't have as many linux-n00bs therefore not as many searches needed.

this theory would also account for the relatively low hits for mac, and also the spike on the vista figures.

Yeah, I figured.

Despite the fact that I don't use Ubuntu, my first google search will be how to do X on linux, followed with how to do x on Ubuntu. I almost never use my distro in the search... Arch I will occassionally, Mint I never did, OpenSuse I never did, other OS's that I've helped people with/played with, I never did. For most distros, it's easier to either search their own site, or find a generic instruction. Due to the large density of Ubuntu users, I search for Ubuntu fixes and modify it to my distro of choice.

C!oud
March 18th, 2009, 10:06 PM
Yeah, I figured.

Despite the fact that I don't use Ubuntu, my first google search will be how to do X on linux, followed with how to do x on Ubuntu. I almost never use my distro in the search... Arch I will occassionally, Mint I never did, OpenSuse I never did, other OS's that I've helped people with/played with, I never did. For most distros, it's easier to either search their own site, or find a generic instruction. Due to the large density of Ubuntu users, I search for Ubuntu fixes and modify it to my distro of choice.

That annoys the heck out of me whenever I want to do a google search so I end up also excluding the word "Ubuntu"

MIH1406
March 18th, 2009, 10:19 PM
Another Google Trend for websites not search terms:
Screenshot: (Click for original size)
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3841/trends04.th.png (http://img26.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends04.png)

Link:
http://trends.google.com/websites?q=ubuntuforums.org%2C+opensuse.org%2C+deb ian.org%2C+redhat.com%2C+fedoraproject.org&geo=all&date=all&sort=0

Alexa Stats:
ubuntu.com ( Rank #: 16021 ) # 3
ubuntuforums.org ( Rank #: 9089 ) # 1
opensuse.org ( Rank #: 32232 ) # 5
debian.org ( Rank #: 14424 ) # 2
redhat.com ( Rank #: 16608 ) # 4
fedoraproject.org ( Rank #: 32979 ) # 6

Alexa Stats from their Alexa Sparky (Firefox extension)

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/5362

simtaalo
March 18th, 2009, 11:14 PM
give you another reason for the high number of searches with ubuntu in, searches that people would usually do on the forum get done on google because the forum search is rubbish (if its not been sorted out yet).

try thinking before reacting to silly numbers :)

MIH1406
March 19th, 2009, 12:58 PM
If they are SILLY why Google provided this service? And works hard to maintain it and keeping it alive?

Even if they are SILLY numbers they represent at least that Ubuntu in the TOP of the list.

ugm6hr
March 19th, 2009, 01:35 PM
Hardly a scientific conclusion.

But I did find a couple of interesting things in those trends.

The number of searches for Vista is still below those for XP. I'm surprised, since I would expect searches for compatibilty / driver questions for Vista.

The number of searches for Ubuntu is increasing. Lots of reasons for this. At the least, it suggested an increase in interest in Linux / Ubuntu, potentially amongst future users to me.

However, this (http://www.google.com/trends?q=ubuntu%2C+linux&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0) suggests that the total number of Linux / Ubuntu searches is actually falling. Part of this shift may be the Ubuntu replacing Linux as a useful search term (presumably the number of references where the 2 words are used interchangeably doesn't help), but still doesn't explain why total Linux searches are falling.

Whatever, Google Trends is an interesting toy that has kept me entertained for a few minutes :)

Oh. And the 6-monthly Ubuntu search blips show that people are at least curious.

simtaalo
March 19th, 2009, 01:49 PM
If they are SILLY why Google provided this service? And works hard to maintain it and keeping it alive?

Even if they are SILLY numbers they represent at least that Ubuntu in the TOP of the list.

the conclusions you are drawing from the numbers is what makes them silly.

even though you have been provided with reasons for these numbers you can't understand why what you have done is fairly pointless.

google trends isn't pointless in itself, all it does it present total search numbers in a graph. what you YOURSELF did with those numbers was pointless.

remember being number one means nothing in this context. maybe you should learn to look at the bigger picture, as oppose to thinking anything that tops any kind of chart must be great

for example take a look at this google trend
http://www.google.com/trends?q=linux+kernel%2C+sheep

according to this, sheep are more popular than the linux kernel cos its higher on the graph. so this should mean we all abandon linux and install sheep on our computers


@ugm6hr - i'd suggest that the way the data is presented, i.e because ubuntu's numbers are so high it makes the small fluctuations for other distro's look more than they are.

i'm guessing other distro's people will generally search the forum before they search google, whereas here we use google to search the forum.

i'd also say that searches for xp remaining higher would simply be because more people use it :P

tjwoosta
March 19th, 2009, 02:50 PM
Look at these screenshots of Google Trends for a comparison between Ubuntu and the other OS:

Screenshot 1:
http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/1139/trends01.th.png (http://img25.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends01.png)

Screenshot 2:
http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/9040/trends02.th.png (http://img26.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends02.png)

Screenshot 3:
http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/4750/trends03.th.png (http://img24.imageshack.us/my.php?image=trends03.png)

You will see that all other Linux Disruptions are going to die with the commercial OS.


the only thing this shows is that the term "ubuntu" is searched more


this proves only that ubuntu users are highly reliant on google


many other distrobutions (such as arch, for instance) have very well thought out wikki's where the users hardly ever search google for anything at all

also many distrobutions have a base of users that already know most of the things that ubuntu users are searching for "how to do this in ubuntu"

for example

lets say there are two people who want to install rtorrent (it could be anything but rtorrent is an example)

the ubuntu user would probably search google for "how to install rtorrent in ubuntu"

and he/she would come up with something like this
http://tech-newbie.blogspot.com/2008/05/how-to-install-rtorrent-in-ubuntu.html

now we have an arch user

the arch user would probably just search the arch wiki for "rtorrent" and he/she would end up with something like this
http://wiki.archlinux.org/index.php/Rtorrent

now pretend there is another user (a gentoo or slackware user)

he/she probably wont even need to search at all because installing rtorrent is "easy" for him/her


so in conclusion, the only thing that theese trends prove is that ubuntu users need to search google more

Zlatan
March 19th, 2009, 04:54 PM
the conclusions you are drawing from the numbers is what makes them silly.

Even though you have been provided with reasons for these numbers you can't understand why what you have done is fairly pointless.

Google trends isn't pointless in itself, all it does it present total search numbers in a graph. What you yourself did with those numbers was pointless.

Remember being number one means nothing in this context. Maybe you should learn to look at the bigger picture, as oppose to thinking anything that tops any kind of chart must be great

for example take a look at this google trend
http://www.google.com/trends?q=linux+kernel%2c+sheep

according to this, sheep are more popular than the linux kernel cos its higher on the graph. So this should mean we all abandon linux and install sheep on our computers


@ugm6hr - i'd suggest that the way the data is presented, i.e because ubuntu's numbers are so high it makes the small fluctuations for other distro's look more than they are.

I'm guessing other distro's people will generally search the forum before they search google, whereas here we use google to search the forum.

I'd also say that searches for xp remaining higher would simply be because more people use it :p

+1

RiceMonster
March 19th, 2009, 05:00 PM
Oh crap. I might as well wipe my Windows partitions because obviously Ubuntu is the only worthy operating system. Thanks, Google Trends!

lol XD

sydbat
March 19th, 2009, 05:10 PM
for example take a look at this google trend
http://www.google.com/trends?q=linux+kernel%2C+sheep

according to this, sheep are more popular than the linux kernel cos its higher on the graph. so this should mean we all abandon linux and install sheep on our computersI like sheep...but only in a Platonic way...

richg
March 19th, 2009, 05:28 PM
You are entitled to your version of reality.

Rich

Scubdup
March 19th, 2009, 06:10 PM
Interesting stats which prompted an interesting discussion. Thanks.

I wonder how many computer users type in their issue without stipulating "XP" or "Vista" because they're not aware there's even a choice of OSs out there...

sim-value
March 21st, 2009, 10:03 PM
Basing Marketshares on freenode ...Linux highly outnumbers windows ...

(Ubuntu Channel,Gentoo Channel,Linux Channel,Windows Channel)

drakshug
April 29th, 2009, 11:47 PM
Hmmmm.
I thought we were all GNU/Linux users.
What is the obsession of being number one? I've seen so many posts and blogs by ubuntu users saying that others hate ubuntu but browsing the forums here has shown me an obsession in oneupmanship and a hate for other distros and DEs.
It doesn't matter which distro a person uses.
It doesn't matter which environment a person uses.
It doesn't even matter if a person uses linux or not.
Just be happy with whatever suits you and stop evangelising.

SomeGuyDude
April 29th, 2009, 11:51 PM
People are LOOKING at Ubuntu more than ever.

That's all that means.

Period.

0per4t0r
April 30th, 2009, 12:59 AM
hah! nice! It's nice that we get some attention once and a while. But, I doubt many people will actually switch to ubuntu because of the news, but they can stay with their loyal BSODs while we have fun watching them die :popcorn: cheers, mates.

collinp
April 30th, 2009, 01:03 AM
People are LOOKING at Ubuntu more than ever.

That's all that means.

Period.

Yes, nail on the head. Google Trends measures how many searches for a particular word(s) and makes it into a graph. Means nothing about market share, etc. Plus, its all Linux, its all free. The other distros are not "dying", far from it. Ubuntu is just popular.

Marlonsm
April 30th, 2009, 01:09 AM
Take a look at this:

http://www.google.com/trends?q=google%2C+yahoo%2C+msn

I wouldn't think Google Trends actually shows the popularity of something.

And also, Linux users are much more likely to look for help or new things using the internet than Mac/Windows users. All it shows is that Ubuntu is the most popular distro.

SuperSonic4
April 30th, 2009, 01:14 AM
Remind me, which major Linux distro released a new version roughly last week?

collinp
April 30th, 2009, 01:17 AM
Remind me, which major Linux distro released a new version roughly last week?

Ubuntu

SuperSonic4
April 30th, 2009, 01:19 AM
I can't believe people are surprised that a newly released distro gets more searches than a relatively established one

Marlonsm
April 30th, 2009, 01:20 AM
Remind me, which major Linux distro released a new version roughly last week?

It doesn't change much, as you can see, the graphs show data since before the first Ubuntu was released.
Although you can see peaks every 6 months, roughly on March/April and September/October

richg
April 30th, 2009, 01:22 AM
Everyone is entitled to their version of reality as they see it.

Rich

tjwoosta
April 30th, 2009, 01:23 AM
like many have mentioned before, the only thing google trends proves is that ubuntu users search google more then other distros users

init1
April 30th, 2009, 01:31 AM
Eh, Google Trends is a poor indication of how well an OS is doing.

mreude
April 30th, 2009, 01:31 AM
I little bit of interesting info about distros. My mom owns a small business and I keep track of her website for her. The following data was taken from the past year.

Operating Systems Number
Windows XP 1516 (63.99 %)
Windows Vista 542 (22.88 %)
Mac OS 184 (7.77 %)
Linux 57 (2.41 %)
Unknown 26 (1.10 %)
Windows Server 2003 19 (0.80 %)
Windows 2000 19 (0.80 %)
Windows 98 6 (0.25 %)

Don't want to burst anyone's bubble, but here is the data from just last month.

Operating Systems Number
Windows XP 309 (57.76 %)
Windows Vista 135 (25.23 %)
Mac OS 47 (8.79 %)
Unknown 14 (2.62 %)
Windows Server 2003 11 (2.06 %)
Linux 9 (1.68 %)
Windows 2000 5 (0.93 %)
Windows 98 5 (0.93 %)

The data suggests that over the past year the OS "war" if you will is virtually nonexistent. This is just some data from one website. So, I wouldn't say it is definitive by any means.

Old_Grey_Wolf
April 30th, 2009, 01:36 AM
Although my website doesn't get very much traffic, it does tell me something about the people visiting the site. I don't see a huge amount of traffic from Linux/Unix visitors. I also see most visitors using some version of IE.

People are Googling on Ubuntu a lot; however, that doesn't lead me to believe that more people are actually using Ubuntu versus another OS.

I have seen Linux/Unix as high as 5% over a month; however, it averages between 1 or 2%.

I have read statistics that Firefox had 22% of the browser share in March 2009 which is close to the 21% I get.

Attached two graphs.

Edit: Unknown in the graphs are computers blocking Javascript; therefore, no data can be collected.

Marlonsm
April 30th, 2009, 01:38 AM
The data suggests that over the past year the OS "war" if you will is virtually nonexistent. This is just some data from one website. So, I wouldn't say it is definitive by any means.

It's not definitive, but I'd say that the real OS marketshare isn't far from that numbers.