PDA

View Full Version : 10 Years.



xequence
December 16th, 2005, 01:58 AM
What are your predictions for the tech world in 10 years? In terms of hardware, software, OSes, anything.

I predict alot of DRM and stuff like that, with a very strong fight against it by many groups including software crackers, pirates, and BSD/Linux users.

WildTangent
December 16th, 2005, 02:00 AM
This here seems alarmingly plausible:
http://www.bit-tech.net/columns/2005/12/15/not_so_distant_future/1.html

-Wild

BWF89
December 16th, 2005, 02:01 AM
As far as operating systems I have no idea whether Linux or Windows will ultimately win. Or mabye some OS that hasn't been invented yet.

As for technology I predict cameras everywhere, a more powerful federal government (US) and more 1984ish world.

cstudent
December 16th, 2005, 02:03 AM
I predict Google will develop the next generation OS and bring down the evil empire.

Zelut
December 16th, 2005, 02:04 AM
I don't see either side 'winning' in this race, but I do see business taking a more active interest in 'open'. I also see our community getting bigger as windows gets more & more buggy and linux gets more stable. We've just got to keep pushing on.

As for the government mention above.. I'm seriously considering moving to EU someplace.

BWF89
December 16th, 2005, 02:15 AM
I predict Google will develop the next generation OS and bring down the evil empire.
and become the next evil empire.

cstudent
December 16th, 2005, 02:18 AM
and become the next evil empire.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely. It's the way of the world isn't it?

BoyOfDestiny
December 16th, 2005, 02:18 AM
What are your predictions for the tech world in 10 years? In terms of hardware, software, OSes, anything.

I predict alot of DRM and stuff like that, with a very strong fight against it by many groups including software crackers, pirates, and BSD/Linux users.

Sadly, I agree 100%. Only the people who care about freedom will have to fight for it. After all the b.s that's been created (from xp's validation phone home to sony drm) it doesn't really effect pirates in the least. It affects the home user. I want to call it "social conditioning", not sure if that term is correct, but it's just letting people get used to this b.s.

Example, spyware that is bundled with world of warcraft: http://www.rootkit.com/blog.php?newsid=358

For many things I have a feeling I'll be commiting copyright enfringement or violate the DMCA (as I do when I watch some of my DVDs on my box).

The "big content" folks want to replace ownership with leasing/renting content to completely eliminate fairuse and create a neverending cash flow...

Frankily, "if you can't sell it, you don't own it". I can sell gpl software, despite what some people think (don't get me wrong, I never have sold any gpl software, but we can). As far as I know, I cannot sell my old copies of Windows...

I have faith in the intelligentsia and in free software. The code/software belongs to everyone. Rich or poor.

Anyway, I can see more lawsuits and less innovation. http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=/netahtml/srchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=6,973,669.WKU.&OS=PN/6,973,669&RS=PN/6,973,669

Here is a patent Microsoft has on "Pausing television programming in response to selection of hypertext link".

It's going to be a bumpy ride, hopefully people who enjoy fair use rights aren't the minority. Hopefully John Q. Public will miss features that VCR's offered...

bored2k
December 16th, 2005, 02:30 AM
I believe Windows will still rule the OS world (in popularity at least) but to a lesser degree (à la Playstation vs XBOX), with Mac still behind, and possibly Google somewhere around. In 10 years the amount of users with a knowledge besides point-and-click will be a lot less than now, that's for sure.

I expect a big crackdown on piracy (in countries like USA/France).

raublekick
December 16th, 2005, 02:32 AM
It is the year 2015. A computer virus has decimated the worlds computer population. Machines are turning against their human masters. Printers are jamming. MP3 players are downloading only the newest pop songs, performed by the latest, slimmest, Apple iBot's. Servers are morphing into Tubgirl mirrors.

But everywhere there are whispers of Linux, an underground group of rebel computer users who were unaffected by this viral outbreak. It is rumoured that they have some Internet servers left intact, and they use them to communicate across the world. Salvation lies in the hands of this rebel group of geeks, dweebs, and spazoids. The President has been kidnapped by DRM-Bots.

ARE YOU A BAD ENOUGH DUDE TO RESCUE THE PRESIDENT?

xequence
December 16th, 2005, 09:14 PM
I expect a big crackdown on piracy (in countries like USA/France).

Most likly. Hopefully not canada though :P

And to the person who said it, yea... The world will go towards a "Rent, not buy" type of thing.

Brunellus
December 16th, 2005, 09:29 PM
in 10 years, we will still be waiting for a stable HURD kernel.

cstudent
December 16th, 2005, 09:31 PM
And to the person who said it, yea... The world will go towards a "Rent, not buy" type of thing.


I'm not renting jack squat. If I can't own it and do with it as I please, I don't want it. I'll do without. And that's not just for software. That goes for cars, homes, etc. No way am I ever going to allow a situation where someone has me by the you-know-whats with one hand and expect me to keep laying money in the palm of their other hand. I don't think I'm alone in my way of thinking. I think there are a lot of people who feel that way.

Brunellus
December 16th, 2005, 09:35 PM
I'm not renting jack squat. If I can't own it and do with it as I please, I don't want it. I'll do without. And that's not just for software. That goes for cars, homes, etc. No way am I ever going to allow a situation where someone has me by the you-know-whats with one hand and expect me to keep laying money in the palm of their other hand. I don't think I'm alone in my way of thinking. I think there are a lot of people who feel that way.
...but not enough to move a market. Ultimately, what is important is that people get what they want. How they get it--subscription or outright purchase, or whatever--is less important to them, I think.

cstudent
December 16th, 2005, 09:43 PM
...but not enough to move a market. Ultimately, what is important is that people get what they want. How they get it--subscription or outright purchase, or whatever--is less important to them, I think.


Maybe so, but I'll still have my money and they won't. And you know how bad they want it. I'm just going to stick it under my mattress and sit on the front porch and whittle.

welsh_spud
December 16th, 2005, 10:45 PM
To think what computers will be like in the 10 years time, you have to think back to how they were 10 years ago then compare them today.

Computers in '95 were used mainly for word processing, spreadsheets maybe. The internet was just going mainstream with help from AOL et al.

10 years on, the internet is probably the biggest thing. Everything interacts with the internet. Computers are getting faster and more powerful. I think we will see computers step from the Office or Study, to the living room.

DRM will be a big part of tomorrow. All the content you buy online and record off TV will be bound together with extreme restrictions.

So I think the next big thing will be the shift into the living room, more media, and DRM

BWF89
December 16th, 2005, 10:59 PM
Just look at how many people buy bottled water when they could just turn on the tap. Or the ones that pay for new wallpaper & ringtones on their cellphones every month. Now the big thing is paying to watch an episode of Lost on your iPod Video.

teaker1s
December 16th, 2005, 11:03 PM
it will become worrying when computers definition gets blured and as certain companies hope it moves into your kitchen/lounge/bathroom etc. etc.
DRM will have an ever increasing grip and ultimately may implode when people start to realise they are paying more for less.

BWF89
December 16th, 2005, 11:08 PM
it will become worrying when computers definition gets blured and as certain companies hope it moves into your kitchen/lounge/bathroom etc. etc.
DRM will have an ever increasing grip and ultimately may implode when people start to realise they are paying more for less.
Sorry for bursting your bubble but people will never realize that. If they have to pay a monthly fee to use MS Office that has to automatically streamed from the internet to use they'd just assume that because it costs so much that must be because it's much better than it's competators (or lack thereof).

xequence
December 16th, 2005, 11:32 PM
Just look at how many people buy bottled water when they could just turn on the tap. Or the ones that pay for new wallpaper & ringtones on their cellphones every month. Now the big thing is paying to watch an episode of Lost on your iPod Video.

Tap water has chlorine which tastes bad. Bottled water is better.

cstudent
December 16th, 2005, 11:35 PM
Tap water has chlorine which tastes bad. Bottled water is better.

I buy a 12 pack of bottled water at Walmart every 2 weeks when we go to the store. We have one of those PUR filters on our kitchen sink tap. It does a pretty good job. I actually prefer the water from it rather than the bottled. But we drink the bottled water and then reuse the bottles for two weeks. Then thrown them out and start over.

potrick
December 17th, 2005, 05:34 AM
Tap water has chlorine which tastes bad. Bottled water is better.


I don't know what part of Canada your from. Tap water tastes great in Niagara.

Let's review...you're paying to drink the most readily availible substance on our planet, shipped in bottles (made from a substance not so readily availible, plastic, which is refined from oil--a substance which, if you haven't noticed, has become a bit of a hot item lately) just because you feel it tastes better? Maybe I'm crazy but I can't tell the difference.

But if you really taste a difference, I'd recommend buying a water filter and leaving the oil elsewhere.

fuscia
December 17th, 2005, 05:50 AM
i predict there will be nothing in the world but advertising. there will be ads for apple's new iSpam on which you'll be able to watch full length infomercials. actors who would have been movie stars in today's world, will become advertising superstars, earning outrageous sums of money for their latest pitches. even our dreams will feature commercial breaks that will follow us all the way down the hall to the bathroom. sunsets will feature product logos. the milky way will change it's message with the same regularity as a billboard. dogs will bark "tastes great" while cats miaow "less filling". it's gonna be awesome!

xequence
December 17th, 2005, 07:07 PM
I don't know what part of Canada your from. Tap water tastes great in Niagara.

Let's review...you're paying to drink the most readily availible substance on our planet, shipped in bottles (made from a substance not so readily availible, plastic, which is refined from oil--a substance which, if you haven't noticed, has become a bit of a hot item lately) just because you feel it tastes better? Maybe I'm crazy but I can't tell the difference.

But if you really taste a difference, I'd recommend buying a water filter and leaving the oil elsewhere.

I live an hour north of toronto. The water just tastes so horrible... It is discusting.

cstudent
December 17th, 2005, 07:12 PM
i predict there will be nothing in the world but advertising. there will be ads for apple's new iSpam on which you'll be able to watch full length infomercials. actors who would have been movie stars in today's world, will become advertising superstars, earning outrageous sums of money for their latest pitches. even our dreams will feature commercial breaks that will follow us all the way down the hall to the bathroom. sunsets will feature product logos. the milky way will change it's message with the same regularity as a billboard. dogs will bark "tastes great" while cats miaow "less filling". it's gonna be awesome!


Aren't we there now?

mstlyevil
December 17th, 2005, 07:33 PM
I'm not renting jack squat. If I can't own it and do with it as I please, I don't want it. I'll do without. And that's not just for software. That goes for cars, homes, etc. No way am I ever going to allow a situation where someone has me by the you-know-whats with one hand and expect me to keep laying money in the palm of their other hand. I don't think I'm alone in my way of thinking. I think there are a lot of people who feel that way.

I hate to break it to you, you do not really own anything. If you own a house or property and it is paid for, you still have to pay property taxes. If you refuse to pay said taxes, your property is confiscated and sold to the highest bidder. If you have a car that is paid for and you refuse to pay the liscense fee and road taxes, they can impound the vehicle and there is not a damn thing you can do about it. If you refuse to pay your income taxes, they can seize everything you own including bank accounts and retirement funds.

In other words you already do not own anything, but you rent it from the Government including local, state and federal levels. I do not know if the same thing is true in Canada and the EU, but I suspect it is.

cstudent
December 17th, 2005, 07:39 PM
I hate to break it to you, you do not really own anything. If you own a house or property and it is paid for, you still have to pay property taxes. If you refuse to pay said taxes, your property is confiscated and sold to the highest bidder. If you have a car that is paid for and you refuse to pay the liscense fee and road taxes, they can impound the vehicle and there is not a damn thing you can do about it. If you refuse to pay your income taxes, they can seize everything you own including bank accounts and retirement funds.

In other words you already do not own anything, but you rent it from the Government including local, state and federal levels. I do not know if the same thing is true in Canada and the EU, but I suspect it is.

Well, that's pretty true and I do pay my taxes (reluctantly). And my house, car and truck are all paid for free and clear. But if the government ever wanted to come in and seize my home I'm afraid all they would get find is a foundation. I would burn it to the ground. And that's no exageration believe me.

cstudent
December 17th, 2005, 07:49 PM
Just an afterthought. I guess I better watch what I say. George Bush might have the CIA doing illegal surveillance on these forums.

Swab
December 17th, 2005, 08:03 PM
I predict an economy based entirely on shoe shops :P