Community growth is really good - just look at my spread sheet (click for stats).

[some_random_noob]

My data:


7/1/2009 (Day/Month/Year)

Members: 741,821
Posts: 6,484,571
Threads: 1,002,622
Beginners talk posts: 342,655
Beginners talk threads: 48,881

14/1/2009 (a week later)

Members: 746,088
Posts: 6,521,703
Threads: 1,008,316
Beginners talk posts: 350,112
Beginners talk threads: 49,901

Changes after 7 days

- Just over 4000 new members in only a weeks time.
- Almost 6000 new threads in only a weeks time.

My forecast based on my data

- If we have 4000 new members every week, for the next 40 weeks, then it means that we'll have another 160,000 members by the end. If you add that to the current number of members, then that will be 906,198 registered members in about 40 weeks time - probably before 2010.

- This data isn't totally accurate. So if we take into account how awesome Ubuntu is, and how perfected it is getting, then I would say we will have one million registered members within the first half (or third) of 2010.

End notes

I encourage everyone reading this to make their own spread sheet. It's really easy!

[Sealbhach]

Good idea. I love graphs and I never uses OOo much so it's a nice opportunity. I think there will be another spike with Jaunty, there will be a lot of buzz in teh internets about ext4.


.

[loell]

speaking of..

the forum was recently awarded as Best Support Resource by linux format magazine. :)

http://www.jonobacon.org/2009/01/12/winning-formula/

[Joeb454]

I think there's a chance we'll hit 1 Million users before 2010, if not, then by the time 10.04 is out (which I believe should be an LTS?) then we'll be on 1 Million :)

And the forums beating Google still makes me chuckle :)

[Donalb]

The dangers of extrapolation:
In 1976 before Elvis died, there was 1 Elvis impersonator.
By 1980, there were approx 1000 (worldwide).

If that rate of increase had continued, everyone in the world would now be an Elvis impersonator!


:-]

[some_random_noob]

Check the attachment on this post. I've got the stats for the third week, and there are two different file formats of the spreadsheet (so it works with Gnumeric and ooO... hopefully).

I'll have to make myself a financial spread sheet soon as well. Not that I have problems with monies :)

[Tomosaur]

Does more members and threads in (what is basically) a technical support forum mean Ubuntu is doing well, or Ubuntu is doing badly?

[loell]

Does more members and threads in (what is basically) a technical support forum mean Ubuntu is doing well, or Ubuntu is doing badly?

that could mean general Adoption rate is fairly doing well.

but then again, it could be something else, has something to do with documentations, regressions or alpha features in software's xyz.

[Cope57]

- Just over 4000 new members in only a weeks time.IP addresses change... Some use use proxies.

- Almost 6000 new threads in only a weeks time.Most of them are useless, lets make another bump thread... Or, there is that many issues that need addressed.

[wolfen69]

Does more members and threads in (what is basically) a technical support forum mean Ubuntu is doing well, or Ubuntu is doing badly?

that would be assuming that every new user is having problems. i highly doubt it. 1000's of people are switching to linux everyday. therefore, the forums are going to be busier as time goes by. plus, it's something new to alot of people, so where else would they go for help? it's not like windows where there is 18,000 forums for windows help. it just seems like alot of people are having problems because let's face it, this is the place to get help.

[phrostbyte]

I think you will find that Ubuntu's growth rate seems to be somewhat linear-logarithmic, so the rate of users joining will increase week after week. So maybe by December there will be 7000 people joining a week.

[LookTJ]

At an hourly rate:

We get

20+ members
25-30+ threads
200+ posts

[wolfen69]

At an hourly rate:

We get

20+ members
25-30+ threads
200+ posts

my guess is, it's more than 25-30 posts an hour. i've seen 6 replies in minutes just in one thread.

[LookTJ]

my guess is it's more than 25-30 posts an hour. i've seen 6 replies in minutes just in one thread.Are we talking threads created or posts created?

[aceinthenight]

speaking of..

the forum was recently awarded as Best Support Resource by linux format magazine. :)

http://www.jonobacon.org/2009/01/12/winning-formula/

As a long time lurker on these interwebs, no site can beat the Ubuntu forums for support on almost any OS...

[wolfen69]

Are we talking threads created or posts created?

posts

[LookTJ]

postsI did say that we get about 200+ posts per hour :)

[wolfen69]

don't mind me, i'm an idiot tonight. one of those nights.