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phrostbyte
December 27th, 2008, 11:55 PM
Here are my somewhat easy predictions, what is yours?

Google Chrome will be released for Linux.
Firefox 3.1 will be released.
Linux desktop marketshare will grow 75%. - not _to_ 75%, we wish :)
Some major government (China, Germany, maybe the USA) will invest a sizable amount of money in developing Linux.
KOffice will begin to become a major force in Office software.
Wine will run Photoshop CS4, and will run most of CS4 reasonably well.

jrusso2
December 27th, 2008, 11:57 PM
Google Chrome will be available for Linux but most will stick with Firefox.

Firefox 3.10 will be out but will not be as fast as Chrome and will still be a resource hog.

Linux on the desktop will show no growth and maybe even will shrink while Mac OS X will increase to 15% market share.

koenn
December 28th, 2008, 12:06 AM
2009 will be the year of the Linux desktop !

phrostbyte
December 28th, 2008, 12:10 AM
Google Chrome will be available for Linux but most will stick with Firefox.

Firefox 3.10 will be out but will not be as fast as Chrome and will still be a resource hog.

Linux on the desktop will show no growth and maybe even will shrink while Mac OS X will increase to 15% market share.

I completely disagree with the third thing: Apple is hurting badly right now. The bad economy means people will not buy $1299 laptops, and their sales while very strong in the past two years, have dropped like a rock this holiday season, along with their stock price (some of the most dramatic stock devaluation of any tech company). Expect severe layoffs at Apple in 2009. While the bad economy / depression might actually help Linux adoption, especially in cash strapped corporations.

SunnyRabbiera
December 28th, 2008, 12:26 AM
I completely disagree with the third thing: Apple is hurting badly right now. The bad economy means people will not buy $1299 laptops, and their sales while very strong in the past two years, have dropped like a rock this holiday season, along with their stock price (some of the most dramatic stock devaluation of any tech company). Expect severe layoffs at Apple in 2009. While the bad economy / depression might actually help Linux adoption, especially in cash strapped corporations.

Indeed, next year might be a good year for linux if things dont improve.

artir
December 28th, 2008, 12:26 AM
Firefox 3.10 will be out but will not be as fast as Chrome and will still be a resource hog.


FF 3.1 beta is already faster than chrome and the RAM consumption is acceptable

loell
December 28th, 2008, 12:34 AM
safe: yet again 2009 won't be the year of the tux desktop.

risky: alpha release for gnome 3.0

none-sense : we're all going back to ALSA.

diskotek
December 28th, 2008, 12:52 AM
safe: yet again 2009 won't be the year of the tux desktop.

risky: alpha release for gnome 3.0

none-sense : we're all going back to ALSA.

i agree

Sealbhach
December 28th, 2008, 01:27 AM
2012 is the Year of the Linux desktop, it's written in an old Mayan calendar.



.

klange
December 28th, 2008, 01:39 AM
2012 is the Year of the Linux desktop, it's written in an old Mayan calendar.
2013, actually, it all starts December 21, 2012.

Mazza558
December 28th, 2008, 02:00 AM
Funnily enough, here's a similar thread I started at the end of 2007: http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=616357&highlight=linux+predictions+2008 - and I got a few of those right. :D

__________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Here are my predictions for *2009*

- KDE 4.4 will probably be here by the end of the year and I think lots of people will switch to it on the desktop, provided that GNOME continues its current rate of progress during the next year.

- Linux as a whole will get more tightly integrated - where more people will shift from lots of small distros to a few big projects. More third party proprietary software will be available but only in deb format (at a stretch, RPM).

- Driver support will improve to the point where only the most obscure devices are not supported at all. Lots of driver makers will begin to take Linux seriously.

- Ubuntu itself will feel solid, professional and sleek by the end of the year, no matter what platform. Kubuntu will improve, but other distros will continue to offer KDE in a better package.

- Ubuntu will be a strong mobile contender, especially in netbook territory.

- OpenOffice will begin to stagnate as people tire of its awkward coding and slowness which isn't ideal for netbooks. People will begin to turn to alternatives like GNUmeric, Abiword and KOffice.

- Lots of code streamlining for netbooks and low-powered mobile devices.

- Banshee will become the "Amarok of GNOME", becoming the most fully-featured media player/library available.

- KDE apps will become much more popular. Existing KDE apps like Amarok will improve drastically.

- There'll be a couple of new distros to fill in gaps and niches.

- Linux desktop usage will increase by the end of 2009 to 1.5%, bringing the total amount of desktop Linux users to around 60 million globally, thanks to netbook sales.

TBOL3
December 28th, 2008, 02:21 AM
I'm going to get shot for this...

I think this year was the year of the linux desktop, and linux in general.

Now, please here me out...Leif

When I went to linux 2 years ago, I booted up an old partition that I had, but never used. Fedora Core 4. It was great. It had plenty of stuff out of the box. But if you wanted to run something that wasn't 'out of the box' forget it. Sure, you 'could' compile from source. But I was a n00b, and besides, to be a productive OS, you shouldn't have to compile from source.

Well, I went to ubuntu 6.06 LTS, and it was much better (the current version of Fedora, Fedora 6 was also good, but I liked ubuntu better). There was a good package managment system. But there were a few flaws, and plenty of bugs. My system would freeze randomly, and it only worked on 1/2 of the computers I tried, and 1/2 of those didn't work well either. DVD playback was easy enough to get, but only because I new enough to work in the terminal.

So, the next year, great, about half the stuff is fixed. It works on more systems. And some simple automation is working, but it's about beta quality.

Fast forward to now. Sure, some versions (ubuntu) are more bloated. But really, everything is working 'out of the box', literally this time. If I want a new app, go get the .deb file, and run it. Deb files are really becoming the .exe and .dmg files of the mac and windows worlds. If I want legal/illegal codecs, just run the file, and it will download them (with your permission). Sure, a few bugs, but nothing big. Oh, did I mention hardware. Ubuntu works on about 9/10 of every computer I try, and on about 7/10 computers, it works well, with little to no flaws. And every other distro is following on ubuntu's heals (I haven't had as good of luck with openSuSE).

Oh, and did I mention support. We have tons of netbooks, support from several major computer manufacturers (albeit some started last year), adobe is moving towards linux much faster then I expected. And even MS has taken a step or two in the right direction.

Next year, will either show improvements, such as a bit more mainstream movement. Or it will die. I think this is the year of the linux desktop. And next year, is the year where we fight to keep our spot (do to the economy, otherwise we would continue to improve).

some_random_noob
December 28th, 2008, 02:26 AM
* Ubuntu will get more bloated and become like Windows. More Windows users will consider switching.

* We will have another 100,000 or so new members, and the forums here will become even more out of control and the cafe will become full of trash.

* Overall improvements will continue at a decent rate, and it will be another great year for FOSS.

phrostbyte
December 28th, 2008, 02:47 AM
I am going to make a risky prediction:

ATI proprietary drivers will be on par with Nvidia drivers

And some more:
ATI open source drivers will be usable for most things, and will be more advanced then Nvidia OSS drivers
Nvidia open source drivers will have full 2D support for all modern Nvidia cards, and partial 3D support

Around the end of the year, Nvidia will start supporting the open source project somehow.

SuperSonic4
December 28th, 2008, 02:56 AM
- KDE apps will become much more popular. Existing KDE apps like Amarok will improve drastically.

Amarok 2 has met a mixed reception though, I think Amarok should stick to the style of 1.4 which is adored by nearly everyone


Ubuntu works on about 9/10 of every computer I try, and on about 7/10 computers, it works well, with little to no flaws. And every other distro is following on ubuntu's heals (I haven't had as good of luck with openSuSE).

Try Mandriva, it works on every computer I've put it on, albeit that's only 4. ;)


I think ubuntu and henceforth GNOME will dominate amongst new and old users of Linux.
Chakra 1.0 stable will be released.

OutOfReach
December 28th, 2008, 03:04 AM
The Load_Cycle_Count problem will be fixed somewhere upstream.

I have had so many problems with that on every computer I install Linux on.

kevdog
December 28th, 2008, 04:44 AM
Pretty safe predictions from many as a rule of thumb.

I'll make some predictions of my own (as others have made)
1. Ubuntu will continue becoming bigger in bigger -- as far as user base, number of computers being sold, and bloat as an OS.
2. Network Manager will still be as unstable as ever, and WICD will still lack VPN support by the end of the year
3. Many of the old forum members will likely switch to a different distribution. Arch is the most obvious choice, however others such as Slack or Fedora may also predominate
4. Wireless support will continue to improve, however with widespread N adoption, problems will continue to loom as well as performance.
5. Yet another group of helpful forum posts will be archived, and placed away. The stickies will bloat out of control, until they are once again wiped clean, only to repopulate like a weed!

wmcbrine
December 28th, 2008, 04:44 AM
If Google Chrome comes out for Linux, it needs to suck a lot less than the Windows version. But I predict that it will suck more, because it will be built via WineLib.

BGFG
December 28th, 2008, 05:01 AM
Although i appreciate that some consider ubuntu 'bloated' and for their own purposes i can't really disagree, lets look at the whole sphere:

True,a very strong positive on linux is it's ability to be functional on resource lacking systems, but how long do we really plan on using 'the old laptop from '97'.
Bloat or not, on either the shanghai or nehalem platforms do any of you see ANY linux distro running slowly ? My goal is to build or purchase an i7 system by 2010. i feel the speed already, so cheers!

Sealbhach
December 28th, 2008, 05:23 AM
The Load_Cycle_Count problem will be fixed somewhere upstream.

I have had so many problems with that on every computer I install Linux on.


I read somewhere they had fixed that in 8,10. I still installed the ugly fix again anyway.

https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/acpi-support/+bug/59695



.

jrusso2
December 28th, 2008, 06:19 AM
I completely disagree with the third thing: Apple is hurting badly right now. The bad economy means people will not buy $1299 laptops, and their sales while very strong in the past two years, have dropped like a rock this holiday season, along with their stock price (some of the most dramatic stock devaluation of any tech company). Expect severe layoffs at Apple in 2009. While the bad economy / depression might actually help Linux adoption, especially in cash strapped corporations.

Come back in a year and I bet I am correct. I have been correct on this every year so far.

jrusso2
December 28th, 2008, 06:23 AM
Funnily enough, here's a similar thread I started at the end of 2007: http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=616357&highlight=linux+predictions+2008 - and I got a few of those right. :D

- KDE 4.4 will probably be here by the end of the year and I think lots of people will switch to it on the desktop, provided that GNOME continues its current rate of progress during the next year.

- Linux as a whole will get more tightly integrated - where more people will shift from lots of small distros to a few big projects. More third party proprietary software will be available but only in deb format (at a stretch, RPM).

- Driver support will improve to the point where only the most obscure devices are not supported at all. Lots of driver makers will begin to take Linux seriously.

- Ubuntu itself will feel solid, professional and sleek by the end of the year, no matter what platform. Kubuntu will improve, but other distros will continue to offer KDE in a better package.

- Ubuntu will be a strong mobile contender, especially in netbook territory.

- OpenOffice will begin to stagnate as people tire of its awkward coding and slowness which isn't ideal for netbooks. People will begin to turn to alternatives like GNUmeric, Abiword and KOffice.

- Lots of code streamlining for netbooks and low-powered mobile devices.

- Banshee will become the "Amarok of GNOME", becoming the most fully-featured media player/library available.

- KDE apps will become much more popular. Existing KDE apps like Amarok will improve drastically.

- There'll be a couple of new distros to fill in gaps and niches.

- Linux desktop usage will increase by the end of 2009 to 1.5%, bringing the total amount of desktop Linux users to around 60 million globally, thanks to netbook sales.

Well it appears most of your predictions are wrong. Despite netbooks linux is only on one in every four of them. With XP being the otehr three. Sales of desktops are still under 1% not 1.5

KDE is less popular due to KDE 4 being such a flop. Even long time KDE users like me won't use it.

Banshee I don't use so I don't really know about it but I have not heard a lot about it lately I have heard more about rythembox and songbird.

Open Office has a new version and seems as popular as ever.

KDE 4.4 is not even close to being here they are still coming out with KDE 4.2

Drivers seem as problematic as ever and some popular drivers that used to work don't seem to work anymore without edits and work arounds.

Kopachris
December 28th, 2008, 06:31 AM
Linux desktop usage will increase a bit
An AIO distro will be released (DustbunnyOS)
Chrome will be released for Linux, but Firefox will still rule until Chrome gets good extensions
KDE might improve, but I'll stick with GNOME because I like its interface
Ubuntu will become (or remain) the most popular distro
ATI's Linux drivers might get as good as nVidia's
WINE's compatibility will get better.
ATI's Linux drivers at least won't flicker OpenGL windows anymore (because DRI2 will be out)

Yes
December 28th, 2008, 06:36 AM
Well it appears most of your predictions are wrong. Despite netbooks linux is only on one in every four of them. With XP being the otehr three. Sales of desktops are still under 1% not 1.5

KDE is less popular due to KDE 4 being such a flop. Even long time KDE users like me won't use it.

Banshee I don't use so I don't really know about it but I have not heard a lot about it lately I have heard more about rythembox and songbird.

Open Office has a new version and seems as popular as ever.

KDE 4.4 is not even close to being here they are still coming out with KDE 4.2

Drivers seem as problematic as ever and some popular drivers that used to work don't seem to work anymore without edits and work arounds.

Err, I believe those were his predictions for 2009.

I think Valve will port their Source engine to Linux. There's a lot of evidence that they're planning on porting it, and I think it'll happen soon. I think that it'll be the beginning of a trend with more and more commercial games released for Linux.

Giant Speck
December 28th, 2008, 06:41 AM
Well it appears most of your predictions are wrong. Despite netbooks linux is only on one in every four of them. With XP being the otehr three. Sales of desktops are still under 1% not 1.5

KDE is less popular due to KDE 4 being such a flop. Even long time KDE users like me won't use it.

Banshee I don't use so I don't really know about it but I have not heard a lot about it lately I have heard more about rythembox and songbird.

Open Office has a new version and seems as popular as ever.

KDE 4.4 is not even close to being here they are still coming out with KDE 4.2

Drivers seem as problematic as ever and some popular drivers that used to work don't seem to work anymore without edits and work arounds.

He provided a link to his 2008 predictions.

Then he gave his 2009 predictions.

abhilashm86
December 28th, 2008, 07:46 AM
as far my guesses,
*)para virtualization will correct its defaults like hibernate options,drivers support,multi-user interaction of two different OS.
*)i wish that wine supports more gaming support.
*)i guess MS gates will approach linux people to free the virus and bugs to windows!!!!!!(we shall not do it)
:)

Sealbhach
December 28th, 2008, 08:20 AM
Well, here's some ideas:

Linux Mint will be big in 2009.

Firefox 3.1 will knock IE below 50% market share.

Windows 7 will halt halt the migration from Windows to Linux.:(

Flashy Compiz type special effects will be less popular, with the focus switching to stability and performance over eye-candy.


.

Mazza558
December 28th, 2008, 12:05 PM
Amarok 2 has met a mixed reception though, I think Amarok should stick to the style of 1.4 which is adored by nearly everyone


I felt the same about KDE 4.0 when it first came out. Look at it now!


He provided a link to his 2008 predictions.

Then he gave his 2009 predictions.

Indeed. I've made things a bit clearer.

earthpigg
December 28th, 2008, 12:16 PM
Flashy Compiz type special effects will be less popular, with the focus switching to stability and performance over eye-candy.


not a chance in heck.

cb951303
December 28th, 2008, 02:21 PM
*with the integration of GEM, KMS and DRI2 to kernel, and with the help of projects like plymouth, wayland, kde 4.2/3/4, linux will look like more beautiful than ever thus attracting more people who see linux videos in youtube.

*with the help of the above, Chakra project will become very popular, probably it will be the "best new distro of 2009"

*64 bit flash and java plugins will become stable. People will care less and less about x86 versions. By the end of the 2009 64bit version will be the first choice of many lusers.

*we'll see the first open source BIOS notebook

*by the end of 2009 we'll have a native beta steam client

*Mainstream game companies will release native linux clients. I expect at least 3-4 big titles coming to linux in 2009

*openoffice's development will slow down. We won't see new features for the most of the year. (Definitely not better binary ms office file format support even though the specs are released now) By the end of the 2009, openoffice will still be unable to open properly some openxml files.

*krita 2.0 will be released and it will become one of the most powerful ps alternatives.

*koffice will be more popular.

*gnome still won't have a decent movie player.

*metacity composting will still be buggy, and compiz still won't play nice with opengl applications

ratmandall
December 28th, 2008, 03:29 PM
Ubuntu will lose the most used (desktop)linux distribution rank.