What market share will Linux desktop have in three years?

[I-75]

What market share will Linux desktop have in three years?

Before you post or give your poll answers, please keep the following in mind.

There are numbers ranging from below 1 % to over 3 % depending on what survey or blog you read. There have been reports that the netbook market is now 50% windows and 50% Linux.

There are a number of Government entities across the globe that have implemented open source mandates like Russia which mandates open source in all schools through out the country.

There have been cities like Munich which have gone to open source, there have been school districts in Switzerland and the Philippines that have moved toward open source. Even the head of the European Union has come out for open source.

The open source mandates could very well help bring open source and Linux into the two digit market share range. So the question to everyone here.



What market share do you see Linux at in three years?

[Grant A.]

.99 2/3%

[cardinals_fan]

Same as now. I don't care ;)

[Grant A.]

Same as now. I don't care ;)

Mr. Solaris :p

[chucky chuckaluck]

same, or less than it is now. these are the glory years.

[cardinals_fan]

Mr. Solaris :p
I'm using Linux more lately, but market share really doesn't affect me :D

[NintendoTogepi]

2-3% is my opinion.

[Giant Speck]

I see it breaking 1%, but probably not going too much farther than that. Maybe 2% at the most.

The total Linux market share might be higher than that depending on how fast Linux-based phones take off in the near future.

[smartboyathome]

I didn't vote, as even voting now could influence this in the future, which is what makes time so interesting and fragile. Though a discussion on the philosophies of time is for another thread. ;)

[-grubby]

2% or less

[Rokurosv]

Perhaps close to 2%, but I don't see it going any higher.

[quanumphaze]

I chose 5-10% (subset 6-7% or about where OSX is now) since there is lots of evidence that it will become popular for many of I-75's reasons, especially if Windows 7 is terrible.

The truth is that we don't know anything about what the future beholds for the computers of the world. Anything we say here is mostly just wild speculation and wishful thinking, etc. We only have the current observable trends to guide us.

My speculation is that there will be many pressures to encourage OSS adoption. Mac OSX is gaining ground because it isn't Windows. Apple can never have a large share because other OEMs will just not stand still. End result is we get Linux laptops on display next to the Windows versions.
New small businesses that have no Windows legacy stuff will see the instant savings of choosing OSS.
We have the situation with hardware that a computer from 2004 is still good enough for most people. My laptop itself is from 2006 but has the specs of a standard 2004 model and is still useful. These machines can't run Vista very well, and if the reviews of Win7 give us anything, they won't run that either. Once XP is completely killed off from security updates we may see a few more Linux machines.
Many schools are starting to use OSS. So the next generation will be competent in using a non Windows OS, saving those previously mentioned small businesses more money in training.
Wine is at a point where developers trained in Win32 can target Wine and have their software work on every *NIX+X11 OS.

Any day now

[Sealbhach]

Depends a lot on how Windows 7 will be received. A lot of people tried Linux out of frustration with Vista (including me). If Windows 7 is any way decent, then fewer people will come over in the next three or four years.


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[halovivek]

it will be more people will not invest in propertity software due to global meltdown. so they will try Linux.

[linux_tech]

I guess I'm the optimistic one in the bunch at 15-20 %

[forrestcupp]

I didn't vote, as even voting now could influence this in the future, which is what makes time so interesting and fragile. Though a discussion on the philosophies of time is for another thread. ;)

Are you John Titor or are you talking about self fulfilled prophecy?

[jpmelos]

In my opinion, it'll still be the same, or give 1%... And that's what I hope for. A insane growth could not be good. Let it climb slowly.

Voted for 2 to 5%.

[Bölvaður]

2 to 5 % is too big. The choices should be more incremental.

In 3 years I would guess it could become 1.5% to 2.5%
It can go either way depending on Windows7 acceptance. 1.5% is more likely and possibly even slightly lower %. But it is very big crowd, a single % are millions of users.

[phrostbyte]

This is a complete guess but I'd say 10%

[Twitch6000]

In three years we might get around 1.5 - 2.0.

Unless something real bad happens to Microsoft.

Really though how they tell Marketshare confuses me and I do not think they can get a true percentage on Linux users :/.

[Valok]

When determining market share, do they take into account only commercial linux? Or do free linux distros get accounted for somehow.

[Twitch6000]

When determining market share, do they take into account only commercial linux? Or do free linux distros get accounted for somehow.

See that is a problem right there is what and how they consider .... users.

With Windows And Mac this is easy with the EULA and license(..sadly)

With Linux however most distros if not all have nothing to tell how many users we truly have =[.

[wmcbrine]

All those Linux-using Netbooks seem like a huge new phenomenon to me. And it's just getting started. I have no particular insight into the future, but I'm an optimist, so I voted > 20%. :)

[S0VERE1GN]

If Microsoft's new advertising campaign fails, it'll be up in the air.

[smoker]

the present and older generations are probably too used to windows for a big change in use to occur quickly. it is the present day kids that are using linux from an early age (linux netbooks, linux at school, etc), that will make the difference in the future. and as they grow and mature, and begin to spend their own money on computers, oems will be watching with beady eyes at what they are using. if oems start to install linux in mass, then the percentage should jump sharply. of course, microsoft bringing out another duff operating system may hurry things along!

[quanumphaze]

When determining market share, do they take into account only commercial linux? Or do free linux distros get accounted for somehow.

The numbers are derived from web usage statistics my market research firms and the like. These are usually good for ball park figures but the web usage varies from site to site (most technical sites get larger Linux and non IE statistics). We don't know which sites are surveyed, we will never get a very accurate percentage.

The current number is around 0.8-1.5% for Linux


the present and older generations are probably too used to windows for a big change in use to occur quickly. it is the present day kids that are using linux from an early age (linux netbooks, linux at school, etc), that will make the difference in the future.

Exactly! Brainwash them when they're young. It's not too late for the older generations to learn, it's just that people are very stubborn when you try to push change without obvious immediate benefits.

I am surprised that there hasn't been huge adoption in schools, it's easy to configure (sysadmin point of view) and the children can't run games. Unfortunately MS has a stranglehold on most education departments.

[eternalnewbee]

After having read most of the posts, I think I'll go with 2 to 5%.
That would be a huge improvement and still reasonable, considering the timetable.

[jrusso2]

All those Linux-using Netbooks seem like a huge new phenomenon to me. And it's just getting started. I have no particular insight into the future, but I'm an optimist, so I voted > 20%. :)

These netbooks were Linux best chance for growth but now that Microsoft is giving them XP for $10 a copy they are all coming with XP and you have to order the Linux ones off the website if you want it.

[will1911a1]

Who cares? So long as it's still around, still works well, and still has an active community I don't care at all what the market share might end up being.

[wmcbrine]

These netbooks were Linux best chance for growth but now that Microsoft is giving them XP for $10 a copy they are all coming with XP and you have to order the Linux ones off the website if you want it.I laid hands on an EEEPc running Linux the other day at Best Buy, which was the first time I've ever seen Linux running at Best Buy. I don't know if that was a new model or not, but it seemed like a milestone to me.

As for the price differential, I don't know what it is on the manufacturers' end, but at the customers' end, it seems to be $40, not $10.

[init1]

I'm not sure, actually. Depends what is done to spread it. I doubt 1% is the peak though, there are still plenty of people who don't use Linux because they've never heard of it.

[billgoldberg]

I voted 2-5%

Mostly because of the rise of Linux in the netbook market.

[ryaxnb]

It's worth noting that most world-centric (most relevant because a lot of Linux usage is international) Linux polls place usage in the 1.9-2.6% range, often at the high end of that range. I suspect the netbook market and similar lead to eventually 4% Linux share, especially worldwide. I think US linux share will be around 1.75-2%, and is probably at 1.25% now. In other words, not much growth ahead for US, but third-world countries and Europe, I forecast much switching.

[smoker]

It's worth noting that most world-centric (most relevant because a lot of Linux usage is international) Linux polls place usage in the 1.9-2.6% range, often at the high end of that range. I suspect the netbook market and similar lead to eventually 4% Linux share, especially worldwide. I think US linux share will be around 1.75-2%, and is probably at 1.25% now. In other words, not much growth ahead for US, but third-world countries and Europe, I forecast much switching.

i mostly agree, though i think the bric countries (brazil, russia, india, china) are where the spread of linux will be wider, sooner. i think ms will do all they can to hold as much market share in the states as they can, that being their own backyard. incidently, it is probably a consequence of ms tightening up on piracy on some of the above countries that is directly responsible, or at least greatly assisting, the growth of linux in those regions!

[ryaxnb]

It's worth noting that most world-centric (most relevant because a lot of Linux usage is international) Linux polls place usage in the 1.9-2.6% range, often at the high end of that range. I suspect the netbook market and similar lead to eventually 4% Linux share, especially worldwide. I think US linux share will be around 1.75-2%, and is probably at 1.25% now. In other words, not much growth ahead for US, but third-world countries and Europe, I forecast much switching.

[Changturkey]

Enough to get some commercial support.

[X40nick]

With the rate of netbooks being sold, and the amount of people who are seeing that: They don't need to buy an operating system or office suite - Linux will get at least 10%. Apple will exit the computer market, and Linux takes over.

[blueshiftoverwatch]

I voted 2 to 5 percent. I think that the economic slowdown in many parts of the world will help open source software gain market share.

[Sealbhach]

Over 9000!


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[wolfen69]

it's linux usage outside of the US that will make the % rise. the people in the US are just too darn stubborn to change. but it is happening very slowly here.

[Ripfox]

same, or less than it is now. these are the glory years.

No....cmon!!!!! :p

[cmay]

a lot more on laptops. and laptops is the future for most computer users. even i am going to get myself a laptop. (i still like the good old computers as they made them ten years ago )

[trixman]

i think that Linux will slowly capture more of the market by a grass roots campaign. it will have about 5%. with how Windows is operating and Vista being horrible & the costly price of Apple they can rise even larger.

:KS

[handy]

I don't consider that the term market share is appropriate, as such a small percentage of Linux distro's being used were actually sold.

I consider the percentage of desktop computers using Linux in 3 years time to be unpredictable, so I could not vote.

I do consider that due to statements issuing from departments of both the Russian & Chinese governments; stating that (Russian) only Linux will be used in schools in the future, & apparently all German Universities will be using Linux. There has also been talk of India using more Linux though it is a bit vague at this stage (at least from what I have read).

So all of these statements bode very well for an increasing awareness & familiarity with Linux, which should, by rights increase the percentage of desktop computers using Linux distro's enormously in the future. Though just what this percentage will be in 3 years? Dunn'o, though I reckon it will be a lot more in 5 years, than it will be in 3 years from now.

[cocopuffz]

I voted for 2% or less. Frankly I'd be happy if Linux remained where it is in terms of Desktop %.

I feel like we're all in on the big secret. We all own custom, handmade, supercars.. while Mac people buy Beemers off the dealership and Windows users get cheap, volume, company car leases.

I like the idea that when I boot up my machine(s), is fully custom, & no one within 10 city blocks has what I have.

It would be great to break the 5% barrier, that way component manufacturers would have to think of us a little more when shipping drivers for their parts. They are doing that more and more now, and we're not even 1% of the market. 8.10 works perfectly on my HP HDX16 laptop! It worked perfectly on my Dell inspiron 1150 and perfectly on my uncles Toshiba A2. That's insane... the only driver install was for the Nvidia 9600gt drivers on the HP... and that was a literal 2 clicks of the mouse to get it done.

I think Linux is already the major player in the consumer market anyways. Alot of cool stuff already runs linux and most people don't even know it. Most of the websites that people use daily (cloud computing) like Google and Amazon, facebook are running on linux. All the new mobile OS's like Android and webOS are going to bring more users into the fold. All the while not even aware they have a little penguin in their pocket.

[X40nick]

ALL Russian schools are going Linux, and most likely the government. I think this is a milestone, and with other countries seeing the potential, mainly the open-source part, so can be tailor-made to their needs. Linux might just push Microsoft out of the 90% margin!

I think France and Italy also did the same thing?

[RichardLinx]

I voted "2 to 5%". It seems feasable.

[Lunx]

Okay, I just voted and i'm guessing the 2-5% range. I realise I'm not allowed to make political statements unless they directly involve Linux and Ubuntu, but I figure what I'm about to say meets those guidelines. I live in Australia, and we had a change of government a bit of a year ago. The thing that makes it relevent is that one of the promises our present government made back then was to give all students a laptop of there own. I think that's a highly commendable thing to do, but the thing that disappoints me is there hasn't been anything said about what OS these 'puters will run on. I believe a version of Ubuntu would be the perfect OS for students to learn on, it could be easily organised in a way to suit Aussie students.

Thing that makes it hard to give difinitive answer is different countries probably treat Linux in different ways. In many countries, (Australia is example) an OS like Ubuntu is seen more as a novelty than a serious alternative. In many other places it may be the onl way they've ever got of being able to use a 'puter, let alone get online and discover internet.

Why? That's simple, can't afford the EULA...

*steps down from soapbox*

Ask me where a Linux distro will be in ten years and that's way different, I'd be suprised if it wasn't a 50% share or more...